Carnegie Connects

Crude Diplomacy: Oil and the Iran War

podcasts@ceip.org (Aaron David Miller, Helima Croft) — Tue, 7 Apr 2026 19:40:27 +0000

More than one month in, the United States and Israel’s war against Iran has resulted in what the International Energy Agency termed the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.” Iran’s ability to control what passes through the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted a fifth of the world's daily oil supply, along with the flow of other commodities such as helium, liquid natural gas, and fertilizer, adding to inflationary pressures globally.  Prospects for a diplomatic exit look bleak and military options to fully open the Strait presents formidable challenges. So, what does the current crisis portend for the global supply of oil and hydrocarbons? Who are the big winners and losers as the world tries to adapt to energy market disruptions? And what lessons, if any, can be drawn from the unfolding crisis?

Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Helima Croft, head of Global Commodity Strategy and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Research at RBC Capital Markets, on the current crisis and the future of oil and hydrocarbons, on Carnegie Connects.

War, Peace, and the Future of the U.S.-Israeli Relationship

Fri, 20 Mar 2026 13:05:00 +0000

The Trump Administration’s war against Iran has highlighted one of the stranger paradoxes of America’s longstanding relationship with Israel—at a time when Israel’s image in the United States is at low point, cooperation and coordination with Washington has reached an all-time high. One would be hard pressed to identify any large-scale U.S. miliary campaign in decades in which there has been greater partnership between allies.

Is the foundation of this alliance —common and shared values; a high coincidence of interests; and strong base of domestic support — under stress? What of the relationship between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Trump? And what does the future of the relationship hold for US and Israeli interests in a complex and volatile region?

Join Aaron David Miller as he engages the Middle East Institute’s Yael Lempert, Princeton’s Daniel Kurtzer, and the Atlantic Council’s Daniel Shapiro, three former U.S. ambassadors to the region with deep experience on the U.S.-Israeli relationship, on the next Carnegie Connects.

War With Iran: Why Now and What Comes Next

podcasts@ceip.org (Aaron David Miller, Ali Vaez, Suzanne Maloney, Rob Malley) — Wed, 11 Mar 2026 13:21:01 +0000

On February 28, the United States and Israel launched military, cyber, and intelligence operations against Iran. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed and strikes were conducted on a broad array of targets, including other senior Iranian leadership compounds, IRGC bases, and missile launchers and production facilities. In response, Iran launched hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles against U.S. bases, Israel and countries in the Gulf, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Qatar.

With no signs of the conflict winding down and unclear goals and timelines from leadership in Washington, where is this war headed? Was there ever a serious prospect for negotiations between the United States and Iran? What is the likely impact of the death of Ayatollah Khamenei on succession and the stability of the regime? Is meaningful and lasting regime change or transformation possible?

Join Aaron David Miller as engages with the Brooking Institution’s Suzanne Maloney, International Crisis Group’s Ali Vaez, and Yale University’s Rob Malley on these and other Iran-related issues, on the next Carnegie Connects.

Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Four Years and Counting

Thu, 26 Feb 2026 22:19:54 +0000

Four years on from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the war drags on, seemingly with no end in sight. The enormity and scale of death and destruction seem unfathomable, with a front line stretching 750 miles and little indication that either side has fundamentally altered the military balance of power. Negotiation under U.S. auspices in various venues and formats continue with no sign that any diplomatic pathway is imminent.

What is the likely trajectory on the battlefield in 2026? Can Russian President Vladimir Putin wage war without end? What of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s politics and policies, including a potential upcoming election? And does the Trump Administration have a strategy to reach a ceasefire, let alone an end to the war, and on what terms? 

Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Eric Ciaramella, a senior fellow in Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program, Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a nonresident scholar in Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program and former defense minister of Ukraine, and Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, in a wide-ranging discussion of Russia’s war against Ukraine four years on, on the next Carnegie Connects.

The State and Fate of America’s Republic: A Conversation With Thomas L. Friedman

podcasts@ceip.org (Thomas Friedman, Aaron David Miller) — Thu, 29 Jan 2026 17:42:33 +0000

A year into President Donald Trump’s second term, the state and fate of the American Republic is uncertain and precarious.  At home, an unprecedented expansion of presidential power has undermined norms and institutions and threatened democratic governance. American politics remain polarized, taking on a tribal and personal character with disagreements often cast as struggles between good and bad. And abroad, the administration’s pursuit of an “America first” policy has undermined the trust of traditional allies and opened up opportunities for U.S. adversaries.

What can Americans expect from the next three years of the Trump administration? What should allies be preparing for given an increasingly expansionist and aggressive U.S. foreign policy? And what are the obligations and responsibilities of citizens during these difficult times?  

Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Pulitzer Prize winning author and The New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman on these and other issues, on the next Carnegie Connects.  

Is Iran Reaching a Tipping Point?

podcasts@ceip.org (Aaron David Miller, Karim Sadjadpour, Robin Wright) — Tue, 27 Jan 2026 19:13:45 +0000

Protests in Iran have now engulfed its major cities and all 31 provinces, creating a mass movement incorporating all elements of Iranian society, despite a comprehensive internet blackout. The regime, blaming the United States and Israel for the sweeping movement, is casting the protests as a continuation of its twelve-day war with Israel and is cracking down hard, with the death toll rising. The Institute for the Study of War has reported that more Iranian security forces have been killed than in any previous periods of unrest. Now, President Donald Trump is vowing U.S. intervention in support of the protestors.

How are these demonstrations different than others in the past? What are the Iranian regime’s options for suppressing them? Are we nearing the point of regime fracture or the end of Ayatollah Khomeini’s reign altogether? And how should the United States respond?

Join Aaron David Miller as he engages two veteran Iran analysts, the Carnegie Endowment’s Karim Sadjadpour and the New Yorker’s Robin Wright in conversation to discuss the unfolding crisis in Iran and America’s reaction, on the next Carnegie Connects.

Is Trump’s Foreign Policy Out of Control?

podcasts@ceip.org (Rebecca Lissner, Emma Ashford, Aaron David Miller) — Thu, 15 Jan 2026 17:20:00 +0000

In the first year of his second term, President Donald Trump has pursued an aggressive foreign policy that has shattered the norms and conventions that have guided almost all of his Republican and Democratic predecessors. Although the administration has framed this as an “America first” agenda that will strengthen the nation’s standing around the world and bring prosperity at home, the U.S. national interest now appears tethered to the president’s personal vanities, prejudices, and his political and financial interests.

Is the recently articulated National Security Strategy a reliable guide as to how the administration will act going forward? Does the recent use of military power in Venezuela represent a one-off headline or does it foreshadow more aggressive action under the “Donroe Doctrine”? And is this the sunsetting of once traditional U.S. values and the rise of foreign policy driven by displaying American power and might?

Join Aaron David Miller as he engages the Council on Foreign Relations’ Rebecca Lissner and the Stimson Center’s Emma Ashford on these and other issues, on the next Carnegie Connects.

The Trump Administration and Venezuela: What Now?

Thu, 8 Jan 2026 19:00:00 +0000

The decision by the U.S. President Donald Trump administration to seize Venezuelan President Nicholás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, to stand trial in the United States reflects the administration’s willingness to undertake a muscular intervention in the Western Hemisphere. Delcy Rodríguez, who served as Maduro’s vice president since 2018, has taken over as the interim president and seems to be on an uncertain path forward working with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. However, Trump’s statement that the United States plans to “run” Venezuela until a permanent, stable transition can be realized raises more questions than it answers, in Venezuela and about U.S. foreign policy at large.

What precisely are the Trump administration’s objectives in Venezuela? Was this a law enforcement operation or a serious effort to create a new political reality in Venezuela? Who are the key Venezuelan players the United States needs to engage and what is the role of the Venezuelan military? And what are the administration’s intentions toward the Venezuelan oil industry and the role of American companies?

Join Aaron David Miller as he engages the International Crisis Group’s Phil Gunson, the Baker Institute’s Francisco Monaldi, and Johns Hopkins SAIS’s Cindy Arnson on these and other issues, on the next Carnegie Connects.

Phase One or Done? Assessing Trump’s Gaza Plan

Mon, 22 Dec 2025 19:45:00 +0000

As 2025 draws to a close, the fate of the Trump administration’s twenty point plan to end the war in Gaza, disarming Hamas and withdrawing Israeli forces, and facilitate good governance, security and reconstruction, has run headlong into harsh Middle Eastern realities. The administration is promising a transition to phase two by the end of the year, but the status of the International Stabilization Force and an on the ground Palestinian governing structure seem more theoretical than real.

What are the chances of implementation of the Trump plan, particularly on security? What, or who, will actually govern Gaza? And what of the other U.S. efforts in Lebanon, Syria, and Iran? Join Aaron David Miller as he addresses these issues and others with Carnegie’s Marwan Muasher, Israel Policy Forum’s Nimrod Novik, and former Palestinian Authority adviser Manal Zeidan, on the next Carnegie Connects.

The Trump Administration and Congress: A Conversation with Senator Chris Van Hollen

podcasts@ceip.org (Chris Van Hollen, Aaron David Miller) — Tue, 9 Dec 2025 21:30:00 +0000

It’s no coincidence that the framers—reflecting the importance of the legislative branch—laid out the responsibilities and powers of Congress in Article I, with the executive second, and the judiciary third. And yet as 2025 draws to a close, the role of Congress seems overshadowed by the other branches.

What’s happened to skew the balance of power the founders intended? Does Congress still matter when it comes to shaping domestic policy and constraining the aggrandizement of presidential power? And on foreign policy, traditionally the purview of the executive branch, what role can, and should, Congress play? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Senator Chris Van Hollen, who sits on the Budget, Appropriations, and Foreign Relations Committees, on the next Carnegie Connects.

Trump and MBS: What’s in Store for U.S.-Saudi Relations?

podcasts@ceip.org (Michael Ratney, Bernard Haykel, Aaron David Miller) — Tue, 18 Nov 2025 17:54:15 +0000

Perhaps no country in the Middle East has attracted more interest of the Trump administration than Saudi Arabia. President Trump took his first foreign trip there during his first term and he remains focused on the possibility of Israeli-Saudi normalization as part of a regional peace agreement in pursuit of a Nobel Peace prize. The visit of Crown Prince Muhammed bin Salman (MBS) to the White House on November 18 has focused even more attention on the U.S.-Saudi relationship.

What are realistic expectations for the visit? What are the upsides, and down, of a reportedly discussed U.S.-Saudi defense pact? And what is Saudi Arabia prepared to do to facilitate the president’s plan for Gaza and to tackle the broader challenge of regional peace? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Michael Ratney, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia, and Bernard Haykel, a professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University, on the MBS visit to Washington and the road ahead for U.S.-Saudi relations on the next Carnegie Connects.

America at Home and Abroad: A Conversation with Nicholas Kristof

podcasts@ceip.org (Nicholas Kristof, Aaron David Miller) — Tue, 4 Nov 2025 21:45:00 +0000

From covering the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and South Sudan, to examining America’s evolving status on the global stage, to mounting concerns about American democracy under the Trump Administration, Pulitzer Prize winning journalist and New York Times opinion columnist Nicholas Kristof has had plenty to cover throughout 2025. Kristof’s columns always inspire discussion and debate about the most pressing issues of our time.

Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Kristof for one such discussion on the next Carnegie Connects, as they take a grand tour of the state and fate of the American Republic at home and abroad.

Rethinking America’s North Korea Strategy

podcasts@ceip.org (Jean H. Lee, Joel S. Wit, Aaron David Miller) — Thu, 23 Oct 2025 20:15:00 +0000

As President Donald Trump prepares for his upcoming trip to South Korea to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may be on the agenda. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung first suggested the meeting during his recent trip to Washington. Trump and Kim seem open to the possibility, with one major caveat: Kim has stated publicly that discussions of denuclearization are off the table. Whether or not that meeting occurs, North Korea’s growing nuclear arsenal and deepening relationships with Russia and China are a persistent challenge for Washington.

How should the second Trump administration alter, or maintain, its approach to North Korea?  Is Washington reading Kim and the internal politics of Pyongyang correctly? And what role should China and South Korea play in U.S. strategy?

Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Jean H. Lee, the presidential chair of the East-West Center, and Joel S. Wit, a distinguished fellow in Asian and Security Studies at the Stimson Center, on these and other issues.

October 7th Two Years On: An Assessment

podcasts@ceip.org (Natan Sachs, Aaron David Miller, Khalil Shikaki) — Tue, 7 Oct 2025 20:00:00 +0000

As we enter the third year of the Israel-Hamas conflict, the Trump administration has offered up a plan to end the war in Gaza. But can it be implemented? The goals of the Netanyahu government and Hamas seem all but irreconcilable. Meanwhile, the hostages and the Palestinian civilian population of Gaza continue to endure horrific conditions.

How does the war end? What does the future hold for the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict and prospects for a lasting solution? And what role is there for the Trump Administration and key Arab states moving forward?

Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research Center’s Khalil Shikaki and the Middle East Institute’s Natan Sachs to discuss these and other issues on the next Carnegie Connects.

Tomorrow is Yesterday: A Conversation With Robert Malley

podcasts@ceip.org (Robert Malley, Aaron David Miller) — Mon, 29 Sep 2025 17:30:00 +0000

Nearly two years into the Israel-Hamas war, the two-state solution is back in the news with the United Nations General Assembly voting in support. Unlike in years past, October 7 and the drawn-out conflict in Gaza has led to a wider and much more polarized conversation. European nations, Arab states, and much of the international community are advocating for Palestinian statehood, while the Trump administration and Israel continue to push back.

Was the two-state solution ever a serious possibility? What roles did the United States, Palestinian Liberation Organization, Israel, and key Arab states play? And if not two states, what solution if any, is possible?

Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Robert Malley, former Middle East adviser in three presidential administrations and co-author of the new book Tomorrow Is Yesterday: Life, Death, and the Pursuit of Peace in Israel/Palestine, to discuss these and other issues.

U.S. Leadership in a Challenging World: A Conversation With Former CIA Director William J. Burns

podcasts@ceip.org (Aaron David Miller, Bill Burns) — Tue, 9 Sep 2025 20:00:00 +0000

In a world defined by seemingly intractable conflicts, great power competition, and rising challenges posed by climate change, nuclear proliferation, and economic uncertainty, the United States often seems like a modern-day Gulliver tied up and constrained by powers large and small and at times by its own politics and illusions.

How does the United States advance its national interests in the face of these challenges, particularly against the backdrop of bitter divisions and polarization at home?

Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with William J. Burns, former director of the CIA and former president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, as he looks back on decades of national security challenges and ahead to what defines effective U.S. leadership in such a complex and fast-paced world.

Can the U.S. Broker A Durable Agreement Between Russia and Ukraine? Analyzing the Trump-Putin Summit

podcasts@ceip.org (Eric Ciaramella, Andrew S. Weiss, Aaron David Miller) — Tue, 19 Aug 2025 22:00:00 +0000

Presidential summits can be useful in opening serious negotiations or closing them with an agreement. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s upcoming summit in Alaska is the latest attempt by the United States to advance peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine—now three and a half years into the war. The outcome of the summit may foreshadow the direction of future negotiations and, ultimately, whether a durable solution is possible.

What is the Trump administration’sstrategy for the summit? What can realistically be achieved in this dialogue between Trump and Putin, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy excluded? And how will Russia, Ukraine, and the United States proceed in its wake?

Join Aaron David Miller in conversation with Andrew S. Weiss and Eric Ciaramella, two of Carnegie’s foremost Russia and Ukraine analysts, to unpack the summit’s outcomes, what comes next for the war, and other issues on the next Carnegie Connects.

The U.S., Iran and Israel: Can Crisis be Turned Into Opportunity?

podcasts@ceip.org (Karim Sadjadpour, Aaron David Miller, Amos Yadlin) — Thu, 3 Jul 2025 20:00:00 +0000

The United States took unprecedented action, striking three nuclear sites on June 22, following an ongoing campaign of Israeli attacks on Iranian leadership, nuclear, and energy targets. Iran responded to Israel with a barrage of ballistic missile strikes, but following the latest U.S. bombing, Tehran attacked with a reportedly well-telegraphed symbolic strike on American assets in Qatar.

For now, it seems the dangerous escalatory cycle has been diffused, but how long will this uneasy status quo endure without a negotiated set of arrangements that satisfies all three parties in this explosive triangle?  Are Israeli and U.S. interests aligned? What kind of concessions is Iran prepared to make on their nuclear program? Is a diplomatic solution possible and, if not, what kind of conflict lies ahead?

Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Amos Yadlin, president and founder of MIND and former head of IDF Intelligence, and the Carnegie Endowment’s Karim Sadjadpour to discuss these and other issues on the next Carnegie Connects.

Explosive Triangle: The U.S., Iran and Israel

podcasts@ceip.org (David Petraeus, Aaron David Miller, Karim Sadjadpour) — Wed, 2 Jul 2025 09:00:00 +0000

A tenuous U.S. brokered cease-fire seems to be holding. But the challenge of converting it into a more enduring cessation of hostilities, let alone a political agreement to address the Iranian nuclear program, remain formidable.

Is Iran interested in a deal on the nuclear issue in the aftermath of Israeli and U.S. strikes? What are the United States’ objectives in the period ahead and do they align with Israel’s? And what should the American response be if Iran tries to reconstitute its nuclear assets?

Join Aaron David Miller as he engages with General David Petraeus and the Carnegie Endowment’s Karim Sadjadpour in conversation on the complexities of this explosive triangle on the next Carnegie Connects.

Israel and Iran at War: How Does This End?

podcasts@ceip.org (Aaron David Miller, Ali Vaez, Sima Shine) — Wed, 18 Jun 2025 20:00:00 +0000

Israel’s surprise attacks last week against Iranian leadership targets, nuclear and military facilities, and Iran’s retaliation with ballistic missiles, have pushed the Israeli-Iranian conflict into unknown territory. Unlike the confrontations of April and October of 2024, this new phase is deadlier and shows no signs of abating.

What are Israel’s and Iran’s objectives? Can Israel destroy Iran’s nuclear program? What are the prospects for U.S. military intervention? And if there is a diplomatic off ramp, how would it defuse the current crisis and produce longer term stability?

Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Sima Shine, of Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, and Ali Vaez, of the International Crisis Group, in conversation on the current Israeli-Iranian conflict on the next Carnegie Connects.

Self-Dealing in the Trump Administration: A Conversation With Norm Eisen

podcasts@ceip.org (Norm Eisen, Aaron David Miller) — Thu, 12 Jun 2025 21:00:00 +0000

Corruption, illicit foreign bribery schemes, and family members trading on presidential reputations for self-enrichment have surrounded the American political system for years. But the Trump presidency has embarked on an unprecedented scale of self-dealing out in the open, muddying the line between the national interest and those of the Trump family’s business enterprises. At the same time, the administration has hollowed out internal watchdogs, curbed ethics requirements, and undermined America’s credibility in the war against illicit finance. As Peter Baker noted in the New York Times, the "death or dearth of outrage," over this tsunami of self-dealing may well reflect how the Trump Administration has reshaped the standards of what's acceptable in Washington.

Where are the current constraints against presidential self-dealing? Why have the public and political elites not generated the kind of reaction that might have been seen in years past? Are there historic parallels and ways to course correct? What impact do these actions have on U.S. standing globally?

Join Aaron David Miller as he engages in conversation with Norm Eisen, founder of Democracy Defenders Action, on the next Carnegie Connects.

Diplomacy or War: The Trump Administration and Iran

podcasts@ceip.org (Vali Nasr, Suzanne Maloney, Aaron David Miller) — Thu, 29 May 2025 20:00:00 +0000

While the Trump administration was eager to jettison the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal in its first term, it now seems serious about negotiating another agreement in its second. And Iran, though wary of that seriousness and fearful of U.S. military action, appears willing to give negotiations a chance.

What are the prospects for success and the appetite for meaningful engagement with Iran? How would an agreement differ from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal? And if diplomacy fails, is American and Israeli military action against Iranian nuclear sites inevitable?

Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Suzanne Maloney, the vice president and director of the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution, and Vali Nasr, the Majid Khadduri Professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, on these and other issues on the next Carnegie Connects.

Trump and the Courts: Will Our Guardrails Hold?

Wed, 14 May 2025 20:00:00 +0000

Three months into his presidency, Donald Trump has embarked on an unprecedented effort to aggrandize executive power and extend his reach over the judiciary, Congress, the media, and even American culture and society. Perhaps the most alarming aspect has been his battle with the judiciary. The president has called for the impeachment of a federal judge; his executive orders have challenged, if not violated, constitutional norms; and his Justice Department has slow-walked, if not ignored, the rulings of the federal judiciary, including the Supreme Court. “Never in history has the country faced such a massive flood the zone strategy,” writes the Carnegie Endowment’s President Mariano Florentino (Tino) Cuéllar in Foreign Affairs.

Can the republic’s guardrails hold? Other than the courts, what are the constraints on the abuse of presidential power? What role do the markets, the states, the media, and public opinion play? And what are the consequences for America if these guardrails don’t hold?

Join Aaron David Miller as he engages the Carnegie Endowment’s Tino Cuéllar and Harvard’s Learned Hand Professor of Law Jack Goldsmith to shed light on how these issues may play out and what their implications are for America’s changing place in the world on the next Carnegie Connects.

Finding the Way Forward on China: A Conversation With David Rennie

podcasts@ceip.org (Aaron David Miller, David Rennie) — Fri, 25 Apr 2025 20:00:00 +0000

China is top of mind for all these days, including U.S. officials. Whether it's because of military exercises against Taiwan, a trade war with the United States, or China's efforts to block a deal on Tik Tok, getting tough on Beijing seems to be the order of the day. But are we getting China right? Are agreements between the United States and China on core interests possible? Or is the current status quo the best we can do with Beijing to manage the relationship to avoid serious conflict?

Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with the Economist’s David Rennie to discuss these and other issues.

What Comes Next for Israel? A Conversation With Former Shin Bet Director Ami Ayalon

podcasts@ceip.org (Ami Ayalon, Aaron David Miller) — Thu, 10 Apr 2025 09:00:00 +0000

In recent days, the Netanyahu government has doubled down on its efforts to consolidate its control and ramp up its military operations in Gaza and Lebanon. Following the firing of the former director of Shin Bet, an unprecedented decision in Israel’s history, the government has begun the more complicated process of terminating the attorney general, as well as changing the process by which judges are appointed. A ferocious military operation in Gaza that has taken a terrible toll on Palestinian civilians and recent anti-Hamas demonstrations have resulted in renewed negotiations on a new hostage release for ceasefire agreement. And for the first time since the Israeli-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement in November 2024, rockets launched against northern Israel triggered response strikes in the Beirut suburbs.

What does the future hold for Gaza and any longer-term agreement? Will the Netanyahu government succeed in what appears to be a renewal of the 2023 effort to increase its power and undermine Israel’s judiciary? What about any hopes for a regional peace accord encompassing Palestinians and Saudi Arabia? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages former Shin Bet director Ami Ayalon on these and other issues on the next Carnegie Connects.

Does Israeli and Palestinian Public Opinion Really Matter?

podcasts@ceip.org (Dahlia Schiendlin, Aaron David Miller, Khalil Shikaki) — Thu, 3 Apr 2025 09:00:00 +0000

Does public opinion matter in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? Do leaders pay attention to the changing views of their respective constituencies? Each situation presents unique challenges for analysts and scholars trying to answer these questions. And those challenges have grown exponentially more complicated in the wake of October 7, 2023, and the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.

How have Israeli and Palestinian attitudes evolved toward their leaders and the region, one another, the United States’ role, and the war? And how do Israelis and Palestinians on all sides of the divide imagine their future, particularly whether there’s a pathway out of the ongoing crisis and any prospects for ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?

Join Aaron David Miller as he engages in conversation with Dahlia Scheindlin, a political strategist and a public opinion researcher, and Khalil Shikaki, the director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, two analysts and pollsters of Israeli and Palestinian politics and public opinion, on these and other issues on the next Carnegie Connects.

Assessing Trump’s Presidency: Two Historians Reflect on the Past and Future

podcasts@ceip.org (Nicole Hemmer, Douglas Brinkley, Aaron David Miller) — Fri, 21 Mar 2025 20:00:00 +0000

All Presidents, Jonathan Alter wrote, are blind dates. Donald Trump may be the first who isn’t. Political analysts and historians not only have Trump’s first term to gauge his temperament and policies, but the four years preceding the 2024 elections, where he previewed his agenda for his second non-consecutive term. Even with that foreshadowing, Trump has crashed through traditional norms and conventions, aggrandized presidential power, and sought to reshape American politics in ways few would have thought possible.

What lessons does history hold for us in approaching the second Trump presidency? Is it plausible to talk about the age of Trump as historians have done for certain presidents? The American experiment in democratic self-governance has been tested in the past. How will it fare going forward? Indeed, will the traditional guardrails hold and protect against the abuse of presidential power? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages in conversation with presidential historians Nicole Hemmer and Douglas Brinkley to discuss these and other issues, on the next Carnegie Connects.

A Conversation with Jake Sullivan

podcasts@ceip.org (Jake Sullivan, Aaron David Miller) — Tue, 18 Mar 2025 09:00:00 +0000

As President Trump pursues his “America First” foreign policy agenda, much of the world is left wondering about what role the United States will now play in global affairs and the stark contrast of this administration from those that came before. Writing in Foreign Affairs in October 2023, Jake Sullivan, then the National Security Adviser to President Joe Biden, asserted that the “essence of President Biden’s foreign policy is to lay a new foundation of American strength so that the country is best positioned to shape the new era in a way that protects its interests and values and advances the common good.”

Was the Biden Administration able to lay that new foundation of strength that might enable the U.S. to advance both its interests and its values, and cope with the complexities of a fast-changing world? Was it able to successfully mobilize its alliances and check the power and influence of its adversaries? And will the Trump administration, with a dramatically different approach to the world beyond America’s shores, fare any better?

Join Aaron David Miller as he engages in conversation with Jake Sullivan as they look back at the last four years of Biden administration’s foreign policy and ahead to the challenges that confront the nation at home and abroad, on the next edition of Carnegie Connects.

America’s Democracy in the Age of Trump: A Conversation with Francis Fukuyama

podcasts@ceip.org (Aaron David Miller, Francis Fukuyama) — Thu, 6 Mar 2025 10:00:00 +0000

“The outcome of the American election will have huge implications both for American institutions and for the world,” Francis Fukuyama wrote in September of last year. Just a few weeks into his second term, with a slew of executive orders and controversial appointments, President Donald Trump seems determined to refashion the fabric of American politics and society with the aim of aggrandizing presidential power at the expense of Congress and the courts. Globally the new administration is worrying allies by withdrawing from the Paris Climate agreement and the World Health Organization, suspending foreign assistance, and imposing tariffs on key trading partners.

How will these efforts impact America’s political system? Will the checks and balances the framers envisioned to constrain the abuse of power hold? What impact will the foreign and domestic policies of the new Administration have on America’s role and image in the world?

Join Aaron David Miller as he engages in conversation with Francis Fukuyama, a nonresident scholar in the Carnegie Endowment’s Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program and the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, to discuss these and other issues.

Russia’s War on Ukraine Three Years On

Fri, 28 Feb 2025 22:00:00 +0000

Three years into Russia’s war against Ukraine, two undeniable realities appear to mark its future. Russian President Vladimir Putin believes time is on his side, and ongoing political changes in Washington are stirring worries that Ukraine can no longer count on sustained levels of military, economic and political assistance. The Kremlin is not deviating from its ultimate goal of making Ukraine unlivable and non-viable while restoring it to Russia’s sphere of influence. Ukrainian Volodymyr President Zelensky, on the other hand, is facing acute manpower shortages and continued military setbacks.

As we enter 2025, what does the battlefield picture tell us? How will the advent of the Trump Administration impact America’s support for Ukraine? Can Europe fill the gap should America falter? The Trump Administration has begun preliminary talks with Russia about a Putin-Trump summit. What are the prospects for a negotiated settlement to pause or end the war?

Join Aaron David Miller as he engages in conversation with Carnegie analysts and scholars Michael Kofman, Alexandra  Prokopenko, Eric Ciaramella and Andrew S. Weiss to discuss these and other issues in the latest episode of Carnegie Connects.

What Does the Fall of the Assad Regime Mean for Syria and the Middle East?

podcasts@ceip.org (Sanam Vakil, Charles Lister, Aaron David Miller) — Thu, 23 Jan 2025 10:00:00 +0000

Over the last two years, intelligence organizations and analysts failed to anticipate critical events in the Middle East that would roil the region. The sudden collapse of the Assad regime and the opening of a new chapter in Syria’s conflict-ridden story is the latest in a fraught period that has seen an of escalation of tensions in Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran.

What explains the Assad regime’s sudden demise and the ascendance of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other Sunni Islamist organizations? What do these events portend for Syria’s governance and the policies of Iran, Russia, Turkey, and Israel in the region? And what would be the best policy on Syria for the incoming U.S. administration?

Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, and Charles Lister, senior fellow and the director of the Syria and Countering Terrorism & Extremism programs at the Middle East Institute, to explore these and other issues.

A Conversation with Efraim Halevy and Ami Ayalon

podcasts@ceip.org (Aaron David Miller) — Thu, 9 Jan 2025 10:00:00 +0000

More than a year into the Israel-Hamas war, the Middle East remains mired in conflict. The war in Gaza drags on with no end in sight; the West Bank continues to seethe; the collapse of the Assad regime has activated Israeli forces along the Syrian border; and while a cease-fire deal has calmed the Israel-Lebanon border, the possibility of a serious escalation between Israel and Iran remains all too real. Meanwhile, uncertainties about U.S. policy abound as the Biden Administration gives way to one headed by President Donald Trump.

Will Israel be able to translate its recent military wins into stable security and political arrangements? What does the future hold for the hostages and the people of Gaza? Is there a diplomatic off-ramp that might preempt or prevent an Iran-Israel confrontation? And what of the future of Iran’s nuclear program?

Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Ami Ayalon, the former head of Shin Bet, and Efraim Halevy, the former head of Mossad, to discuss these and other issues on Carnegie Connects.

A Conversation with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell

podcasts@ceip.org (Kurt Campbell, Aaron David Miller) — Thu, 26 Dec 2024 10:00:00 +0000

Beyond Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas, the Biden administration has faced significant international challenges over the president’s four years in office. President Biden and his team have contended with a range of issues including strategic competition, growing threats to democracies, climate change, critical minerals supply chains, and shaping the transformative potential of emerging tech to solve global problems without exacerbating regional economic inequality. When it comes to foreign policy, as George Will quipped, the American public wants as little of it as possible, but that hasn’t been the case over the last four years.

What are the key principles and assumptions that have underscored its approach to foreign policy? And what kind of world does it leave for its successors?

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell has served in the Biden administration from the beginning, first at the White House and more recently at the State Department. Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell to discuss these and other issues.

Covering Conflict: A Conversation With Clarissa Ward of CNN

podcasts@ceip.org (Aaron David Miller, clarissa ward) — Thu, 12 Dec 2024 10:00:00 +0000

With no shortage of conflicts in today’s world, journalists covering war zones provide indispensable reporting and analysis, often at great personal risk. Few war correspondents have more experience covering conflict than CNN’S Clarissa Ward, who has covered conflicts from Afghanistan to Ukraine, to Syria and Gaza, reporting from the world’s hot spots providing first-hand accounts of violent conflicts and their impact on civilians. Most recently, Clarissa and her crew were detained by an armed militia in Darfur.

What does it take to cover conflict? How does reporting on one conflict differ from another? And how do journalists witnessing the horrors of violent conflict keep their own emotions and feelings out of the story?

Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Clarissa Ward to discuss the challenges and travails of reporting from some of the world’s most dangerous conflict areas.

Where Does America Go From Here? A Conversation With SE Cupp and Norman Ornstein

podcasts@ceip.org (Aaron David Miller, Norman Ornstein, SE Cupp) — Thu, 28 Nov 2024 10:00:00 +0000

Elections have consequences. President-elect Donald Trump’s victory carries implications for America’s governance and role in the world that are uncertain, transformative, and potentially dangerous to American democracy.

What explains his election? Does it presage a genuine political realignment? What are the consequences of Republican control of the White House, Senate, and potentially the House? And what do they mean for a Democratic party now seemingly in the political wilderness?

Join Aaron David Miller as sits down with SE Cupp and Norman Ornstein, two of the nation’s most thoughtful political analysts, to discuss these and other issues.

A Conversation with Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak

podcasts@ceip.org (Aaron David Miller, Ehud Barak) — Fri, 15 Nov 2024 10:00:00 +0000

Ongoing conflicts between Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran are likely to define much of the Middle East for the foreseeable future. Israel may have escalation dominance, but this will not necessarily bring about security, let alone the political accords required to bring greater stability to the region. Most serious is the new reality created by Iranian and Israeli strikes directly on one another’s territory, posing a dangerous risk tolerance.

What are the chances for further Iranian-Israeli escalation? Does Israel have a strategy to convert its recent military successes into sustainable political achievements with Palestinians or in Lebanon? And what does the future hold for the U.S.-Israeli relationship? Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with former Israeli Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Ehud Barak for a wide-ranging discussion of these and other issues in the next edition of Carnegie Connects.

Explosive Triangle: Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah in Lebanon

podcasts@ceip.org (Aaron David Miller, Kim Ghattas, David Satterfield) — Thu, 31 Oct 2024 09:00:00 +0000

Israel’s military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon has broken a status quo that could carry potentially momentous consequences for a country and a region already marked by a year of conflict. Critical questions loom. What are Israel’s military objectives in the south and can they be achieved? Has the weakening of Hezbollah shifted Lebanon’s internal power balance and created opportunities for strengthening state sovereignty? How will Iran respond to the weakening of its billion-dollar proxy? And are there realistic opportunities for the international community, especially the United States, to pursue diplomatic options that could produce greater stability in Lebanon and along the Israel-Lebanon border?

Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Kim Ghattas and Ambassador David Satterfield to address these and other questions on Carnegie Connects.

Israel and Iran at War?

podcasts@ceip.org (Aaron David Miller, Karim Sadjadpour, Suzanne Maloney) — Thu, 17 Oct 2024 10:00:00 +0000

During the past two weeks, the possibility of a major Middle East multi-front war has increased significantly. Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah and Iran’s launching of ballistic missiles against Israel has created the potential of an escalatory ladder that both Iran and Israel might climb with dangerous consequences. Iran’s role and what they do next will be decisive.

Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Karim Sadjadpour, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Middle East Program, and Suzanne Maloney, vice president and director of the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution, to discuss how Iran perceives the current landscape and may act as the crisis unfolds.

A Conversation with Abdallah BouHabib, Lebanese Minister of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants

podcasts@ceip.org (Abdallah BouHabib, Aaron David Miller) — Thu, 3 Oct 2024 09:00:00 +0000

As Lebanon was rocked by two days of exploding pagers and walkie-talkies directed at Hezbollah’s communications network, killing dozens and injuring thousands, tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have risen to new heights. In a fiery speech, Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah vowed revenge.

How has this latest escalation impacted Lebanon’s internal politics? What are Hezbollah’s options in responding? What are the prospects for defusing not only the current crisis but the complex of issues that have shaped the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah? And what role can the U.S. and other international actors and regional parties play in avoiding an all-out war?

Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with His Excellency Abdallah BouHabib, the foreign minister of Lebanon, to discuss these and other issues.

Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Where Are We Headed?

podcasts@ceip.org (Eric Ciaramella, Dara Massicot, Aaron David Miller) — Thu, 3 Oct 2024 09:00:00 +0000

Ukraine’s Kursk offensive has added a new dynamic to an otherwise predictable grinding war of attrition between Russia and Ukraine. The war has now dragged on for the better part of three years, with neither Moscow nor Kyiv able to achieve their territorial objectives. Nor are there any prospects for serious negotiations that might pause or end the war.

Are there any developments on the battlefield that suggest changes in either side’s tactics and strategies in the months ahead? Have Europe and the United States developed funding and political strategies to prepare for the long war? What are the right mix of policy tools and overall strategy to help prosecute a long war in Ukraine and an open-ended confrontation with Moscow?

Join Aaron David Miller as he engages in conversation with Carnegie’s own Dara Massicot and Eric Ciaramella to discuss these and other issues.

Political Violence and the 2024 Elections

podcasts@ceip.org (Mary McCord, Aaron David Miller, Eric K. Ward) — Thu, 19 Sep 2024 09:00:00 +0000

In a recent poll, two-thirds of American adults said they were concerned that “extremists” will commit acts of violence following the 2024 election if they are unhappy with the results. This should come as no surprise. Earlier this year the U.S. Department of Homeland Security warned that among other threats the 2024 election cycle will be a  “key event for possible violence.” How real is that threat and how would it likely manifest itself? What are the factors driving political violence in America today? And what can be done to mitigate the threat?

Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with down with former acting assistant attorney general for national security Mary B. McCord and Eric K. Ward, senior fellow at the Southern Poverty Law Center, to unpack these and other issues.

The Middle East on the Cusp of a Regional War: A Conversation with Haaretz's Amos Harel

podcasts@ceip.org (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) — Thu, 8 Aug 2024 16:00:00 +0000

The Middle East continues to boil. Following the Hezbollah rocket strike on a Druze town in the Golan Heights killing a dozen children, Israel targeted a top Hezbollah commander in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Two days later, the head of the Hamas Political Bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed presumably by Israel in a missile strike in Tehran while attending the inauguration of the Iranian President. Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis have all threatened retaliation.

What is the likely impact of recent events on the Gaza ceasefire talks? Is the region heading toward a major war? And is there chance for de-escalation diplomacy?

Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Amos Harel, Haaretz’s military correspondent and one of Israel’s leading defense analysts, to discuss these and other issues on Carnegie Connects.

The Campus and the Israel-Hamas War

podcasts@ceip.org (Amaney Jamal, Keren Yarhi-Milo, Aaron David Miller) — Thu, 25 Jul 2024 15:10:00 +0000

This past spring many college and university campuses were roiled by unprecedented protests sparked by the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. Not since Vietnam has any foreign policy issue resulted in such widespread demonstrations on campuses.

What explains the intensity of the reaction? Has the Israeli-Palestinian conflict become a permanent fixture of hot debate? What lessons have been learned should demonstrations reoccur this fall? And is it possible to have productive conversations about the conflict without succumbing to nationalized, polarized narratives in a toxic media environment?

Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Princeton University Dean Amaney Jamal and Columbia University Dean Keren Yarhi-Milo for a wide-ranging discussion of these and other issues.

How Does the Israel-Hamas War End?

podcasts@ceip.org (David Satterfield, Aaron David Miller) — Thu, 20 Jun 2024 09:00:00 +0000

The Israel-Hamas war drags on seemingly with no end in sight. President Biden has announced a phased plan to end the conflict, but Hamas has yet to respond and Benny Gantz, a supporter of the plan, has left the Israeli government. Meanwhile, there’s serious concern about the prospects of a major escalation between Israel and Hezbollah along the Israel-Lebanon border.

What is the humanitarian situation for Gaza’s 2.3 million people? Is there any realistic planning for the proverbial day after? And what are the prospects for any regional peace initiative? In this episode, Aaron David Miller welcomes back to the program Ambassador David Satterfield, formerly the White House Special Envoy for Middle East Humanitarian Issues, to discuss these and other issues.

A Conversation with Amos Hochstein

podcasts@ceip.org (Amos Hochstein, Aaron David Miller) — Thu, 6 Jun 2024 09:00:00 +0000

As the Israel-Hamas war drags on, the potential for spillover effects increase. Three conflict areas have emerged that carry serious risk of escalation: first, growing tensions between Israel and Hezbollah along the Israeli-Lebanese border, attacks by Iranian-backed Houthis against international shipping in the Red Sea, threatening global supply chains and freedom of navigation, and the danger of another direct clash between Israel and Iran. 

What are the prospects for regional escalation? Is there a diplomatic pathway in Lebanon? And how have these conflicts affected the international economy, supply chains, and the global trade of hydrocarbons? Aaron David Miller will discuss these and other issues with Amos Hochstein, deputy assistant to the president and senior advisor for energy and investment at the White House. Prior to serving at the White House, Hochstein served as the U.S.-appointed mediator of the Lebanese-Israeli negotiations that resulted in a maritime border agreement between the two nations.

The Israel-Hamas War: A Conversation with Israeli Ambassador Michael Herzog

podcasts@ceip.org (Aaron David Miller, Michael Herzog) — Thu, 23 May 2024 09:00:00 +0000

Seven months on, the Israel-Hamas war continues with seemingly no end in sight, against a backdrop of escalating regional tensions. While Israel remains determined to pursue a major military operation in Rafah, indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas over the release of hostages and a ceasefire drag on. Following unprecedented strikes by Iran and Israel on one another’s territory, there is growing concern that Israel and Hezbollah, Iran’s Lebanese proxy, might find themselves engaged in a major war. Despite these compounding challenges, the Biden Administration holds out hope for a regional peace initiative, including Israeli-Saudi normalization, should the situation in Gaza stabilize.

What are the prospects for ending the Israel-Hamas war? Will the current status quo hold, or might we see another escalation between Israel and Iran? And what is the status of the US-Israeli relationship? Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Israeli Ambassador to the US Michael Herzog to discuss these and other issues, in the next episode of Carnegie Connects.

Israel and Iran: How to Prevent a Regional War

podcasts@ceip.org (Sima Shine, Karim Sadjadpour, Aaron David Miller) — Thu, 9 May 2024 09:00:00 +0000

The recent attacks by Iran and Israel on one another’s territory have taken the strategic rivalry between these two adversaries into uncharted and dangerous territory. The unprecedented strikes seem to have been contained for now, but it’s by no means certain that this state will hold. The underlying issues that have fueled tensions — from conflict with regional proxies to Iran’s nuclear program — remain unresolved.

Will the recent escalation between Iran and Israel lead the parties to greater risk-readiness or risk aversion? What role can outside parties, especially the United States, play in reducing tensions? Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with the Institute for National Security Studies’ Sima Shine and the Carnegie Endowment’s Karim Sadjadpour to discuss these and other issues, in the next episode of Carnegie Connects.

Congress’ Role in Foreign Policy: A Conversation With Rep. Mikie Sherrill

podcasts@ceip.org (Mikie Sherrill, Aaron David Miller) — Thu, 25 Apr 2024 09:00:00 +0000

Congress is more involved in foreign policy — both formally and informally — than most Americans realize. With the war in Ukraine entering its third year, the Israeli-Hamas war continuing with no end in sight, and economic competition with China rising, Congress is likely to take a greater interest and have more influence on foreign policy in the coming year.

How divided is Congress on the key foreign policy issues of the day? Will party lines determine the passage of a $60 billion aid package for Ukraine or a possible ban of TikTok? And what issues offer the best prospects for bipartisan cooperation? Join Aaron David Miller, host of Carnegie Connects, as he sits down with Representative Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) to discuss these and other issues.

Can Israel Win Its War With Hamas? A Conversation With Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak

podcasts@ceip.org (Aaron David Miller, Ehud Barak) — Thu, 28 Mar 2024 09:00:00 +0000

As the Israeli-Hamas war enters its sixth month, the conflict shows no signs of abating. The humanitarian plight of Gazans continues to deteriorate while the prospects of a major Israeli ground campaign in Rafah looms. At the same time, the negotiations surrounding a potential hostage deal appear stalled.

What are Israel's current objectives in the conflict? How do tensions along the Israeli-Lebanon border factor in, and what of rising tensions with Washington? Aaron David Miller welcomes former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak back to the program to discuss the latest developments in the Israel-Hamas war.

Getting China Right: A Conversation With David Rennie

podcasts@ceip.org (Aaron David Miller, David Rennie) — Thu, 29 Feb 2024 20:25:07 +0000

Late last year, the Economist asked an intriguing question: How scary is China? President Joe Biden’s administration clearly considers China a peer competitor to the United States and many in Congress view Beijing as a mortal threat. There’s no doubt that China poses serious challenges, even dangers in some areas, for America. But is Washington overlooking China’s weaknesses and vulnerabilities, and misunderstanding what China wants from America and the world? Are we getting China right?

Aaron David Miller sits down with David Rennie, the Economist’s bureau chief in Beijing, to discuss these and other issues.

U.S. Policy and the Israel-Hamas War: A Conversation with Ambassador David Satterfield

podcasts@ceip.org (David Satterfield, Aaron David Miller) — Tue, 20 Feb 2024 21:17:01 +0000

As the Israel-Gaza war enters its fifth month, the humanitarian situation for 2.3 million Gazans is increasingly dire. A grinding process of inspections of trucks has slowed delivery of aid, while Israel's ground campaign in southern Gaza—where an estimated 1.9 million displaced Palestinians now reside—makes using predictable and reliable corridors for transport extremely difficult.

What is the future for Palestinians in Gaza? How does the Biden administration envision the proverbial day after? And what are the prospects for converting this crisis into a better pathway to a two-state solution and closer ties between Israel and the Arab world?

Aaron David Miller sits down with Ambassador David Satterfield, the State Department special envoy for Middle East humanitarian issues, to discuss these and other issues.

Political Violence in America: A Conversation with Mary B. McCord

podcasts@ceip.org (Mary McCord, Aaron David Miller) — Fri, 9 Feb 2024 17:04:57 +0000

In its threat assessment for 2024, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security forecast that, among other threats, the 2024 election cycle will be a “key event for possible violence and foreign influence targeting our election infrastructure, processes and personnel.” Indeed, Attorney General Merrick Garland noted that in recent months there had been a “deeply disturbing spike” in threats against government workers and public servants.

What is the nature of these threats? What is driving and enabling political violence in America today? Can law enforcement cope with these threats, and are the nation’s institutions strong and resilient enough to deal with these challenges in the years ahead?

Aaron David Miller sits down in conversation with former U.S. acting assistant attorney general for national security Mary B. McCord to unpack these and other issues.

Ukraine in 2024: In Search of the Best U.S. Policy

podcasts@ceip.org (Dara Massicot, Eric Ciaramella, Aaron David Miller) — Fri, 19 Jan 2024 20:55:57 +0000

The Israel-Hamas war may have pushed Ukraine off the front pages, but Russia's war against Kyiv is almost certain to remain a key focus of U.S. foreign policy throughout 2024. Tough choices await. Hopes that the combination of a successful Ukrainian counter-offensive, tough sanctions, and diplomatic pressure might force Putin to alter his strategic calculus have given way to a more realistic assessment that this conflict might last for many years.

What should we expect on the battlefield in 2024? Are there any realistic prospects for negotiations and should President Joe Biden’s administration be pushing for them? What are the impacts of delays in aid to Ukraine now and in the months ahead? Over the longer term, is containment the right strategy for dealing with a belligerent Russia?

Aaron David Miller sits down in conversation with Carnegie’s own Dara Massicot and Eric Ciaramella to discuss these and other issues.

The Israeli-Hamas War: Intelligence, Strategy, and the Day After

podcasts@ceip.org (Efraim Halevy, Ami Avalon, Aaron David Miller) — Thu, 14 Dec 2023 20:30:59 +0000

As the Israel-Hamas war enters its second month, the role of intelligence has figured prominently. How did Israel fail to grasp Hamas’s intentions and capabilities and to anticipate the October 7 attack? Was this a failure of imagination or were there structural and bureaucratic impediments that prevented Israel’s intelligence community from identifying the dots and connecting them? Are domestic politics overriding sound intelligence analysis to shape the Israeli government’s campaign against Hamas, its approach toward Gazan civilians, its efforts to free hostages, and its thinking on post-conflict Gaza and the West Bank?

Efraim Halevy, former director of the Mossad, and Ami Ayalon, former director of Shin Bet, engage in conversation with Aaron David Miller on these and other subjects.

Is America Overstretched? A Conversation With General David Petraeus

podcasts@ceip.org (David Petraeus, Aaron David Miller) — Thu, 9 Nov 2023 16:57:23 +0000

With the ever-present possibility of tensions between the United States and China in the Indo-Pacific, the war between Russia and Ukraine with no end in sight, and a new crisis between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East that could easily escalate, the United States seems to be stretched along several political and military fronts. How should President Joe Biden’s administration think strategically and tactically about this new arc of crisis in Europe, the Indo-Pacific, and the Middle East? Can it successfully resource America’s role in these conflicts? What are the key challenges it faces, and how much political bandwidth does it have at home to fashion policies that are both sustainable and effective?

Aaron David Miller sits down with General David Petraeus to discuss these and other issues, as well as his new book "Conflict: The Evolution of Warfare From 1945 to Ukraine."

The Israeli-Hamas War: A Conversation with Khalil Shikaki

podcasts@ceip.org (Khalil Shikaki, Aaron David Miller) — Wed, 8 Nov 2023 15:09:34 +0000

The Israel-Hamas war has pushed the Palestinian issue to center stage both in the region and internationally. Have Hamas’s October 7 attack, Israel’s blockade and airstrikes, and the ensuing humanitarian catastrophe altered Gazans’ views on Hamas? What did Hamas hope to gain from the attack? Has the Palestinian Authority been weakened further by the escalating violence in the areas under its control, and would its influence be strengthened or weakened if Israel were to succeed in destroying Hamas’s military capabilities? Are there any circumstances in which the Palestinian Authority might return to Gaza?

Aaron David Miller sits down with pollster and analyst Khalil Shikaki, director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, in conversation on these and other issues.

The Israeli-Hamas War

podcasts@ceip.org (Ehud Barak, Aaron David Miller) — Wed, 18 Oct 2023 14:09:29 +0000

Since October 7, the conflict between Israel and Hamas has escalated to its highest level in recent years. The brutality of the Hamas attacks, the hostage-taking, and Israel’s response to date, including devastating air strikes in Gaza and the blockade—have intensified the conflict. Will Israel launch a major ground campaign against Hamas? What is the fate of the hostages? Is there a chance that the conflict could spread to the West Bank and Jerusalem or trigger a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah on the Israel-Lebanon border? What is Iran’s involvement, and how is the Biden administration dealing with the crisis? Aaron David Miller sits down with former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak to discuss these and other issues.

The Biden Administration and Iran: Where Is U.S. Policy Headed?

podcasts@ceip.org (Robin Wright, Suzanne Maloney, Aaron David Miller) — Wed, 18 Oct 2023 14:05:59 +0000

Relations between Iran and the United States remain fraught. A period of de-escalation has been ushered in by Iran’s release of five American hostages in exchange for five Iranian nationals and the unfreezing of around $6 billion of Iranian assets that Tehran can now access only for food and humanitarian aid. On a separate track, through indirect negotiations, the United States and Iran reached a series of informal understandings to defuse tensions, including limits for Iran on some nuclear enrichment activities. But the underlying tensions driven by Iran’s nuclear program, its brutal repression of its own peacefully protesting citizens, and its support for Russia’s war against Ukraine remain unresolved.

What is the Biden administration's approach to Iran? How will domestic politics and the upcoming U.S. presidential election shape it? And what are the possibilities for a broader agreement between Washington and Tehran on the nuclear issue and other key points of contention?

Aaron David sits down with two of Washington's finest analysts of Iran.

The Ukrainian Counteroffensive: Implications for U.S. Policy

podcasts@ceip.org (Dara Massicot, Michael Kofman, Aaron David Miller) — Thu, 28 Sep 2023 15:27:36 +0000

Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive has perhaps unfairly left some Western policy circles disappointed. Nonetheless, the war continues seemingly with no end in sight. What are the most realistic options for Kyiv to make headway against Russia? Has the Biden administration been too risk averse in its provision of military assistance, and what kind of advanced weapons systems supplied to Ukraine might make a significant difference on the battlefield? What have the past several months taught us about Ukranian and Russian strategy? And do the core tenets of Western strategy toward Russia’s war on Ukraine require rethinking?

Aaron David Miller hosts leading military analysts Dara Massicot, formerly of the RAND Corporation and soon to join Carnegie, and Carnegie’s own Michael Kofman for a discussion of these and other issues.

Beyond the Counter-offensive: Where Is Ukraine Headed?

podcasts@ceip.org (Kateryna Shynkaruk, Eric Ciaramella, Aaron David Miller) — Mon, 10 Jul 2023 15:22:19 +0000

Uncertainties abound as Ukraine begins its much-anticipated counter-offensive. Will it change the trajectory of the war or represent simply another phase in a lengthy stalemate? Meanwhile, next month’s NATO summit will mandate some tough choices about the war, Ukraine’s potential membership, and the unity of the alliance. To what extent will domestic politics in Washington, Moscow, Kyiv and key European capitals shape decision-making? And what are the long-term security options for Ukraine as the confrontation drags on?

Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Carnegie’s Kateryna Shynkaruk and Eric Ciaramella to discuss these and other issues.

Carnegie Connects: What Lies Ahead for Palestinians?

podcasts@ceip.org (Hanan Ashrawi, Aaron David Miller) — Thu, 22 Jun 2023 17:39:47 +0000

The Palestinian national movement is in crisis. Divided between a Hamas-controlled Gaza and a Palestinian Authority that has lost credibility with the West Bank population it partially controls, the movement lacks not only cohesion but an effective strategy to bring about an end to Israeli occupation. Confronted by Israel's most right-wing fundamentalist government, which is committed to maintaining permanent control over most of the West Bank and Jerusalem, the movement is drifting with little more than symbolic support from the international community.

What is the Palestinian strategy? If the two-state solution has failed, what is the Palestinian endgame and how do they mean to achieve it? What happens in the wake of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’ presidency? And what can Palestinians realistically expect from the Arab world and the United States?

Aaron David Miller sits down with Dr. Ashrawi to discuss these and other issues.

Israel at Seventy-Five

podcasts@ceip.org (Ehud Barak, Aaron David Miller) — Wed, 24 May 2023 15:53:54 +0000

As Israel turns seventy-five, protests opposing the Netanyahu government's effort to overhaul and weaken Israel's judiciary enter their twentieth week, Israel confronts unprecedented internal challenges as Israeli-Palestinian clashes in Gaza and the West Bank intensify, and Iran's nuclear program continues unconstrained. What lies ahead for Israel and the Middle East at this critical moment?

Aaron David Miller sits down with former Israeli prime minister and defense minister Ehud Barak for a wide-ranging conversation about Israel at seventy-five.

Is It Too Late To Save the Planet?

podcasts@ceip.org (Sue Biniaz, Aaron David Miller) — Tue, 16 May 2023 18:51:36 +0000

Can humanity compete in the critical race against climate change, or are we destined to succumb to a world of extreme heat, flooding, drought, and irrevocable damage to the planet’s seas and biosphere? The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns that time is running out but holds out hope of averting the worst. Will UN efforts like COP summits succeed soon enough? If not, who or what will lead the way? And as the climate emergency accelerates, what can the world expect from its largest emitters, China and the United States?

U.S. Deputy Special Envoy for Climate Change Sue Biniaz joins Aaron David Miller to discuss.

Russia, Ukraine, and the Struggle for Democracy

podcasts@ceip.org (Anne Applebaum, Aaron David Miller) — Thu, 20 Apr 2023 18:53:00 +0000

Well before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Biden cast the main dynamic of the 21st century as a struggle between the forces of democracy and autocracy. Putin’s aggression seemed to tether Biden’s rhetoric to the bloody reality of the most serious crisis in Europe since the end of the cold war. But with two thirds of the world’s population residing in countries that have not signed on to pro-active sanctions against Russia, is the democracy versus authoritarian framing the most effective one? Why isn’t the United States and much of the West’s message getting though? Why are so many nations hedging? And what are the prospects for a resurgence of democratic systems against the backdrop of recent democratic backsliding? What concrete steps can the U.S. and its democratic allies take to support fledgling and fragile democracies?

Atlantic staff writer and author Anne Applebaum joins Aaron to discuss.

U.S. Foreign Policy Today With Former National Security Advisors Tom Donilon and Stephen Hadley

podcasts@ceip.org (Tom Donilon, Stephen Hadley, Aaron David Miller) — Wed, 29 Mar 2023 19:00:00 +0000

America’s foreign policy challenges abound. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has evolved into a seemingly endless war of attrition in which neither side appears poised to win decisively. Relations between the United States and China are at their worst in decades with little discernible pathway to a more productive relationship. North Korea flexes its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities while Iran expands its enrichment capacity to near weapons-grade level. Meanwhile, international institutions and multilateral cooperation seem ill equipped to deal effectively with the transnational challenges of climate, a future pandemic, and the preservation of biodiversity. At home, domestic politics are playing an influential role in shaping U.S. foreign policy, for better or worse. Amid so much geopolitical complexity and so many crises, what are the key elements for an effective and successful foreign policy?

Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with two former national security advisors to discuss America’s role in this challenging and changing world.

Unpacking the Ukrainian Battlefield With Russia Military Analyst Michael Kofman

podcasts@ceip.org (Michael Kofman, Aaron David Miller) — Wed, 15 Mar 2023 17:04:32 +0000

Wars evolve in one of two ways—one side decisively defeats the other, or both sides, realizing that total victory is unattainable, compromise on a temporary or permanent deal to end the fighting. In Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine, neither scenario is currently in play as Moscow and Kyiv plan fresh offensives and counteroffensives in 2023 along the 600-mile battlefront. How are Putin and Zelenskyy recalibrating their military strategies in the new year? How would Russia react if Ukraine wins more ground and is in striking distance of Crimea? How would Chinese military assistance impact the battlefield balance? And what circumstances might produce a Western military confrontation with Russia?

Aaron welcomes Russian military expert Michael Kofman from CNA to discuss how the battlefield in Ukraine is shaping up in 2023.

Want to listen to Carnegie Connects live? Visit our website to sign up for invitations.

Inside Biden’s Ukraine Strategy With Ambassador Victoria Nuland

podcasts@ceip.org (Victoria Nuland, Aaron David Miller) — Thu, 23 Feb 2023 17:42:48 +0000

As the war in Ukraine nears its one-year anniversary, the coming months could prove decisive in a conflict that has become a war of attrition. The possibility of any negotiation in the near future appears dim as rumors spread of massive Russian and Ukrainian offensives. Kyiv and its Western partners are scrambling to bolster the Ukrainian military with tanks, air defense, and other capabilities. How does the Biden administration view the effectiveness and sustainability of its overall strategy? And how can Ukrainian and Western leaders persuade Putin that he is wrong to pin his hopes on simply outlasting his opponents?

Aaron sits down in conversation with Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland to discuss these and other issues.

Want to listen to Carnegie Connects live? Visit our website to sign up for invitations.

Unpacking Israel's New Government with Tzipi Livni

podcasts@ceip.org (Tzipi Livni, Aaron David Miller) — Mon, 13 Feb 2023 22:04:47 +0000

The inauguration of the most right-wing fundamentalist government in Israel’s history poses unprecedented and extraordinary challenges. Just the other week, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government introduced new legislation that would weaken the judiciary’s independence.

Meanwhile, the new government‘s hardline policies toward the Palestinians have the potential to jeopardize its relationships with its Arab neighbors. Is Israel’s democracy in danger with these new judicial reforms? How will the government’s policies on the West Bank and Jerusalem impact relations with the Palestinians and other Arab states? And what’s the trajectory of U.S.-Israeli relations moving forward?

Aaron sits down with the former Israeli vice prime minister and minister of foreign affairs and justice Tzipi Livni to discuss these and other issues.

How Russia Handles Western Sanctions With Polina Ivanova

podcasts@ceip.org (Polina Ivanova, Aaron David Miller) — Fri, 27 Jan 2023 14:00:53 +0000

Russia’s war against Ukraine continues with no end in sight. Almost a year into the conflict, one of the most intriguing questions is how Russia’s economy has managed to stave off a destabilizing economic crisis in the face of unprecedented economic sanctions. How has the Russian economy survived? What has the impact of sanctions been on the Russian public? And can Russia continue to thwart international pressure to choke off the oil revenues that fuel the war effort in Ukraine?

Aaron is joined by the Financial Times’ Polina Ivanova, an investigative journalist who covers Russia, Ukraine, and Central Asia and has focused on how Russia’s economy has learned to adapt over the last year.

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Understanding Xi’s China With David Rennie

podcasts@ceip.org (David Rennie, Aaron David Miller) — Fri, 20 Jan 2023 16:25:45 +0000

The U.S.-China relationship will figure prominently in global politics for decades to come. Getting China right, to the extent that’s possible, is critically important both to minimize the chances of conflict and maximize potential cooperation. Despite its rising power, China is also wrestling with sluggish growth, an aging population, and a failed pandemic policy that has sparked backlash against President Xi’s leadership. Is Taiwan squarely in Beijing’s crosshairs today? How does Xi envision his relationship with Biden and the United States in the years to come? And what do American policymakers miss when it comes to China and its authoritarian leader?

Aaron David Miller is joined by David Rennie, the Economist’s Beijing bureau chief and Chaguan columnist, to discuss these and other issues.

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Is Russia-Ukraine a Forever War?

podcasts@ceip.org (Ekaterina Schulmann, Andrew S. Weiss, Aaron David Miller) — Mon, 19 Dec 2022 16:33:42 +0000

Russian aggression against Ukraine continues with no end in sight. While Ukrainian military offensives have shifted the momentum and recaptured significant swaths of territory, entrenched Russian positions and winter conditions have slowed the tempo of the fighting. Meanwhile, Russia’s air and missile strikes have crippled Ukrainian infrastructure and exacted a severe price on civilians. Where is the war headed? Is the resolve of the U.S.-led coalition still strong? How has the conflict affected Putin’s domestic support? And what options are available to the Biden administration other than simply staying the course?

Aaron sits down with Carnegie’s own Andrew S. Weiss and one of Russia's most acclaimed political observers, Ekaterina Schulmann, to discuss these and other issues.

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Reassessment or Business as Usual in U.S.-Saudi Relations

podcasts@ceip.org (Bernard Haykel, Aaron David Miller, Helima Croft) — Wed, 7 Dec 2022 14:53:54 +0000

The U.S.-Saudi relationship is going through some of the worst tensions in decades. In the wake of the Saudi-driven OPEC Plus decision in October to cut production, Biden has warned of “consequences” for the relationship. At the same time, the White House has also granted Mohammed bin Salman legal immunity over the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, a sting to Biden’s calls to uphold human rights. What consequences, if any, will arise now, or will it just be a slap on the wrist for a problematic but important partner? How will the OPEC Plus meeting in Vienna shape energy markets? And how will the EU’s embargo of seaborne Russian oil shipments and G7 price caps affect energy prices and U.S.-Saudi relations?

Aaron welcomes veteran OPEC watcher Helima Croft and Princeton University’s Bernard Haykel as they discuss the future of U.S.-Saudi relations.

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America in the World With Thomas L. Friedman

podcasts@ceip.org (Thomas Friedman, Aaron David Miller) — Mon, 21 Nov 2022 20:05:47 +0000

When it comes to foreign policy, George Will quipped, Americans want as little of it as possible. That much was even clearer this week as American voters had inflation, crime, abortion access, U.S. democracy, and recession fears at the top of their minds in the midterm elections. At the same time, warming temperatures, supply chain breakdowns, and a global pandemic have only reaffirmed the inescapable fact that what happens here at home is inextricably linked to events beyond America’s shores. All this takes place amid the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s rise as a peer competitor, and challenges from rogue states such as North Korea and Iran. How do we prioritize these challenges? And what does it mean to lead in a complex, multipolar world?

Aaron sits down with Pulitzer Prize-winning New York Times columnist Thomas L. Friedman for a wide-ranging discussion of these and other challenges.

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Midterms Debrief With S.E. Cupp and Norman Ornstein

podcasts@ceip.org (SE Cupp, Norman Ornstein, Aaron David Miller) — Tue, 15 Nov 2022 14:13:00 +0000

Next week Americans will go to the polls in a midterm election that may speak volumes on how voters view the current policies of the Biden administration and provide a snapshot of the state of America’s deeply polarized politics. How will the election results shape the second half of Biden’s term in office? What did the pollsters get right and wrong about voters’ priorities? And what do the midterms tell us—if anything—about the general election in 2024?

Aaron sits down with S.E. Cupp and Norman Ornstein for an analysis of the midterms and the state of politics in America.

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Nukes, Protests, and Iran With Robert Malley

podcasts@ceip.org (Rob Malley, Aaron David Miller) — Tue, 1 Nov 2022 20:42:23 +0000

With negotiations over the nuclear deal on hold and Iran facing its most serious protests since 2009, the Biden administration is dealing with a new reality in its relations with the Iranian regime. How have the demonstrations reshaped the administration’s thinking on Iran? Is a revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action still on the table? And what is the most effective approach to deal with Iran’s internal unrest?

Aaron sits down with Robert Malley, the U.S. special envoy for Iran, for a wide-ranging conversation on the Biden administration’s Iran policy.

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Analyzing Trump’s Presidency With Susan Glasser and Peter Baker

podcasts@ceip.org (Peter Baker, Susan Glasser) — Wed, 12 Oct 2022 17:33:05 +0000

The Washington Post describes Susan Glasser and Peter Baker’s new book The Divider as the “most comprehensive and detailed account of the Trump presidency yet published.” From his “American carnage” inaugural address to the January 6th insurrection he helped trigger, the authors argue that far from lurching from one controversy to another, Donald Trump was constantly learning the techniques and practices of the foreign autocrats he so admired.

Aaron sits down with the authors to discuss the Trump presidency and the state of the American republic.

A Decisive Moment in Ukraine

podcasts@ceip.org (Kadri Liik, Eugene Rumer, Andrew Weiss, Aaron David Miller) — Tue, 4 Oct 2022 18:31:05 +0000

The war in Ukraine is entering a new and more dangerous phase in the wake of the overnight success of Kyiv’s counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region. A string of major Russian military setbacks is feeding hopes for a once-unthinkable Ukrainian victory in the war. For his part, Putin is moving to formally annex the parts of Ukraine occupied by Russian forces and is inching closer toward full-scale military mobilization. Is the war in Ukraine at a tipping point? How vulnerable is Putin at home? How should the West respond to Putin’s countermoves? And what are the long-term implications of Moscow’s chronic underperformance on the battlefield?

Aaron hosts Kadri Liik, Andrew Weiss, and Eugene Rumer to discuss the latest developments in Russia’s war in Ukraine and where the conflict could go from here.

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The Biden Administration and Trade With Katherine Tai

podcasts@ceip.org (Katherine Tai, Aaron David Miller) — Fri, 9 Sep 2022 14:21:51 +0000

The United States faces the most challenging trade environment in decades. Amid a complex domestic political environment, a more aggressive China, and varied trade views among U.S. allies to U.S. allies, the Biden administration has championed a new approach. In this complicated and fraught environment, what exactly is the worker-centered trade policy? Can trade really be designed to benefit American workers and the middle class? Can it effectively counter an emboldened China? And will the newly created Indo-Pacific Economic Framework revitalize U.S. trade strategy in Asia?

Aaron sits down with the United States Trade Representative Katherine Tai to discuss the future of U.S. trade policy.

A Conversation With the President of Israel Isaac Herzog

podcasts@ceip.org (Isaac Herzog, Aaron David Miller) — Mon, 8 Aug 2022 10:00:00 +0000

As Israel approaches its fifth election in four years, it faces a series of challenges and opportunities. Worries over Iran’s nuclear ambitions remain, and a peace with the Palestinians remains elusive. Meanwhile, Israel has an opening to expand relations with the Gulf states and a longstanding relationship with the United States under a Biden administration keen on working together with Israel.

Listen as Aaron David Miller sits down with Israel’s eleventh president, Isaac Herzog, to talk about the presidency, the U.S.-Israeli relationship, Iran, Palestine, and more.

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Getting the Intel Right with James Clapper

podcasts@ceip.org (James Clapper, Aaron David Miller) — Tue, 12 Jul 2022 23:28:44 +0000

In the prelude to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, intelligence played a critical role in exposing Vladimir Putin’s intentions to the world. Since then, NATO has expanded and doubled down on its efforts to counter Russia, all while keeping its eyes to the east on China. Meanwhile, old challenges persist in the Middle East—talks to revive the Iran nuclear deal have reached an impasse and there appears little prospect for a breakthrough, and Biden soon heads off on his first trip to the Middle East to mend a precarious relationship with Saudi Arabia. U.S. intelligence will play a key role in decisionmaking as policymakers navigate these tricky challenges, but what does the Intelligence Community get right and wrong? And how might that impact the path forward?

Aaron sits down with General James Clapper, who was the fourth and longest-serving director of national intelligence, as they discuss today’s critical foreign policy challenges and the role of U.S. intelligence in policymaking.

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The Politics of an Oil Crisis With Helima Croft

podcasts@ceip.org (Helima Croft, Aaron David Miller) — Thu, 30 Jun 2022 16:39:09 +0000

Millions of Americans are frustrated as U.S. gas prices now exceed $5 per gallon at the pump—and are only projected to rise. One of the key drivers behind the global inflationary spike is, of course, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Disruption in the flow of Russian oil and gas, combined with preexisting inflationary pressures, have roiled energy and financial markets and placed a renewed focus on energy security. How will this new energy equation impact government policies in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and especially in the United States? Will this situation pressure U.S. and international leaders to find alternative energy solutions and finally deal substantively with climate change? And can the United States and its allies find ways to mitigate the impact of energy costs on consumers, or are rising prices at the pump here to stay for the foreseeable future?

Aaron sits down with Helima Croft, managing director of global commodity strategy research at RBC Capital Markets, to talk about rising oil prices, the effectiveness of sanctions on Russian oil, and more.

Trouble on the Homefront With Mary B. McCord

podcasts@ceip.org (Mary McCord, Aaron David Miller) — Fri, 10 Jun 2022 01:26:26 +0000

America is in trouble. Even as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues to preoccupy the Biden administration, events at home offer a grim picture. While inflation and a resurgence of COVID-19 continue to darken the national mood, active shooters and mass killings, the rise of white nationalist extremism, and pernicious polarization on issues from gun control to voting rights to abortion seem to have stressed the political system’s capacity to address these challenges. How do we move forward?

Aaron sits down with Mary B. McCord to address the unique domestic security challenges confronting a nation increasingly divided at home.

U.S. Foreign Policy and the American Voter With David Axelrod

podcasts@ceip.org (David Axelrod, Aaron David Miller) — Wed, 18 May 2022 19:34:02 +0000

Putin’s brutal attacks against civilians in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have produced a rare moment of bipartisanship in the United States, even as the U.S. midterm elections draw near in November. However, if history is any indicator, the conflict itself is not likely to impact American voters at the polls. But how important is presidential leadership in shaping voter preferences during an unprecedented foreign policy crisis abroad? Has Biden’s handling of Ukraine served to offset the hits he has taken in the wake of the Afghanistan withdrawal? And what if anything might shift voters’ likely focus on domestic issues such as inflation and the pandemic?

Aaron sits down with the preeminent political strategist and commentator David Axelrod for an evaluation of the Biden presidency and how the war in Ukraine will impact American politics as the midterms loom large.

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The U.S.-Israeli Relationship With Ambassador Thomas R. Nides

podcasts@ceip.org (Aaron David Miller, Thomas R. Nides) — Mon, 9 May 2022 19:24:28 +0000

In recent weeks, terror attacks in Israel and operations launched by the Israeli Defense Forces have claimed the lives of more than thirty Palestinians and Israelis. Israeli police have also clashed with Palestinians on the Haram al-Sharif/Temple Mount in Jerusalem.

This escalation is occurring at a critical moment for the region as negotiations to revive the Iran nuclear deal have stalled, raising the prospects of an Israeli-Iranian confrontation over Tehran’s nuclear program. Preoccupied with Russia and Ukraine, how is the Biden administration tackling the challenges of both the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Iran nuclear issue?

Aaron David Miller sits down with Thomas Nides, the U.S. ambassador to Israel, to discuss the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the future of the Iran nuclear deal, and the U.S.-Israel relationship.

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Russia, Ukraine, and Great Power Conflict with Robert M. Gates

podcasts@ceip.org (Robert Gates, Robert M. Gates, Aaron David Miller) — Fri, 15 Apr 2022 18:22:35 +0000

“Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has ended America’s thirty-year holiday from history,” Robert Gates opined in the Washington Post last month, referencing the United States’ reentry into great-power conflict for the first time since the Cold War. No more salient words have been written on the U.S. role in the crisis.

Russia’s brutal military campaign against Ukraine and its horrifying war crimes have stunned the West, which has responded with unprecedented sanctions and aid to Ukraine. But what are the trend lines behind the headlines? Is there a diplomatic off-ramp to end the crisis? What are the internal implications for Putin’s Russia and for NATO, China, and U.S. foreign policy?

Aaron sits down with former U.S. secretary of defense Robert M. Gates to unpack these and other issues in the ongoing crisis.

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Diplomacy on the Front Lines With Marie Yovanovitch

podcasts@ceip.org (Marie Yovanovitch, Aaron David Miller) — Fri, 8 Apr 2022 19:29:21 +0000

Across nearly four decades in the U.S. Foreign Service, Marie Yovanovitch has served in far-flung outposts from Mogadishu to Moscow to her last post in Kyiv as the ambassador to Ukraine—a position from which she was abruptly recalled and then drawn into the politics surrounding the impeachment of a U.S. president. This may well have been her toughest assignment and one in which she demonstrated tremendous courage and integrity. Perhaps no one has a better feel for Ukrainian politics, relations with Russia, and the options for U.S. policy in the months ahead.

Aaron sits down with Marie Yovanovitch to discuss her new memoir and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

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A Conversation on the War in Ukraine With Clarissa Ward

podcasts@ceip.org (aaron david miller, clarissa ward) — Fri, 1 Apr 2022 14:43:17 +0000

Truth is said to be the first casualty of war, leaving journalists to play an indispensable role on the front lines and convey the grim reality of conflict. Nowhere has that been more clearly demonstrated than in the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, where journalists provide constant coverage at great risk to themselves—and sometimes with tragic consequences.

Aaron sits down with CNN’s senior international correspondent and veteran journalist Clarissa Ward to discuss the war in Ukraine and the challenges of wartime reporting.

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China, Russia, and Ukraine With Kevin Rudd

podcasts@ceip.org (Kevin Rudd, Aaron David Miller) — Wed, 23 Mar 2022 20:52:21 +0000

Although not on the battlefield, China figures as a central player in the Ukraine crisis. The strength of China-Russia relations was clearly a factor for Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine, as sweeping Western sanctions have only highlighted Putin’s dependence on Xi Jinping. Indeed, China is the only nation of consequence that fully supports Russia. But how enduring is that support? What are China’s calculations as it seeks to balance support for Russia against its own interests? And does the Biden administration have any leverage over China as it seeks to support Ukraine and defuse the crisis?

Tune in as Aaron David Miller sits down with Kevin Rudd, former Australian prime minister and head of the Asia Society, to discuss these and other issues.

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A Conversation With Ken Burns

podcasts@ceip.org (Ken Burns, Aaron David Miller) — Mon, 14 Mar 2022 19:37:51 +0000

Acclaimed documentary filmmaker Ken Burns has emerged as one of America’s most gifted and prolific storytellers. From baseball to country music and his upcoming film on Benjamin Franklin, Burns explores America’s greatest achievements and most extraordinary heroes. But he also documents the darkest moments of the American republic, such as the Civil War and the national stain of racial injustice. Through it all, Burns weaves iconic narratives, linking the past to the present in ways that make America’s democratic experiment accessible to millions.

Aaron sits down with Ken Burns to discuss his craft, his view of the American story, and the challenges of filmmaking during one of the most fraught and consequential periods in America’s history.

U.S. Intel and the Ukraine Crisis With Beth Sanner

podcasts@ceip.org (Beth Sanner, Aaron David Miller) — Wed, 9 Mar 2022 18:58:34 +0000

The U.S. Intelligence Community has played a critical role in predicting Putin’s invasion and countering Moscow’s disinformation campaign as the Biden administration purposefully released intelligence on the Kremlin’s plans and troop movements leading up to the invasion. But what are the challenges of intelligence gathering and analysis in response to a fast-moving crisis? What makes for an effective intelligence assessment for policymakers? How do presidents make decisions based on intelligence in crises such as Afghanistan and Ukraine? And how do intelligence officials ensure policymakers receive accurate and unbiased information?

Aaron sits down with Beth Sanner, the deputy director of national intelligence for mission integration, to discuss these and other issues.

Understanding Putin and Ukraine With Dmitri Trenin

podcasts@ceip.org (Dmitri Trenin, Aaron David Miller) — Tue, 22 Feb 2022 21:45:44 +0000

After willfully provoking the crisis in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin seems strangely uncertain about what to do with it. Despite preparing both conventional and hybrid military options, he also seems open to the possibility of using diplomacy to achieve his goals. But what exactly are those objectives? Is there a negotiated outcome that Putin is prepared to accept that would end the crisis? And how does he read the Biden administration’s response? Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Dmitri Trenin to analyze these and other issues.

A Conversation With Brett McGurk

podcasts@ceip.org (Brett McGurk, Aaron David Miller) — Fri, 28 Jan 2022 17:10:57 +0000

In a recent interview, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan spoke on President Biden’s foreign policy one year into the administration and yet made no mention of the Middle East. What is Biden's foreign policy in the Middle East, a region studded with humanitarian crises and seemingly intractable conflicts that impinge on U.S. interests, from Iran, Israel and Palestine, Lebanon, Libya, Syria, and Yemen. How does the administration define U.S. interests in the region? And where does the Middle East fit in the list of its priorities?

Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Brett McGurk, the president’s point person on the Middle East, to discuss these and other issues.

A Conversation with Linda Thomas Greenfield

podcasts@ceip.org (Aaron David Miller, Linda Thomas-Greenfield) — Fri, 21 Jan 2022 21:40:00 +0000

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A Conversation with Heather Cox Richardson

podcasts@ceip.org (Heather Cox Richardson, Aaron David Miller) — Wed, 19 Jan 2022 20:24:31 +0000

2022 may well be the most crucial year in America's history, Boston College American historian Heather Cox Richardson argues. A surging pandemic; runaway inflation; the tribalization of American politics, a battle over voting rights, and upcoming midterms presage a tumultuous year ahead. How will the Biden administration deal with these challenges?

Aaron David Miller sits down with Professor Richardson to discuss the state and fate of the American republic.

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A Conversation with Kurt Campbell

podcasts@ceip.org (Kurt Campbell, Aaron David Miller) — Fri, 7 Jan 2022 19:36:31 +0000

Perhaps no question figures more centrally in the Biden administration’s foreign policy than what to do about China. Indeed, no other nation impacts America’s security, economy, and politics as vitally. How should the United States deal with a rising China. And what does China want from the United States? Is there an approach that can create a sustainable balance of interest? Or is the future going to be driven by a zero-sum game of competition and even conflict?

Aaron David Miller sits down with Kurt Campbell for what promises to be an illuminating discussion of the future of U.S.-China relations.

Democracy in Peril

podcasts@ceip.org (Frances Z. Brown, Rachel Kleinfeld, Aaron david miller) — Wed, 8 Dec 2021 18:29:33 +0000

This week the Biden Administration will host the Summit for Democracy at a pivotal time for democracies around the world. Democracy has been in global decline for over a decade and is on track to sustain the worrying trend this year—given coups and power grabs Tunisia, Myanmar, Afghanistan, and Sudan. Can Biden’s summit be a fruitful convening given democracy’s downturn? Is dividing dictatorships and democracies even a useful paradigm? And can the United States still lead on this issue given its own perilous troubles at home?

Tune in as Aaron sits down with leading experts Rachel Kleinfeld and Frances Z. Brown to discuss the state of democracy and the path forward in advance of the summit.

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A Conversation with Francis Fukuyama

podcasts@ceip.org (Aaron David Miller, Francis Fukuyama) — Fri, 19 Nov 2021 19:15:00 +0000

Today, the United States faces a seemingly impossible set of global challenges: a dwindling clock on climate change; persistent nuclear proliferation; and democracies under threat from populism and authoritarianism. At home, the situation is no less challenging as inflation, white nationalist extremism, political polarization, and an unending pandemic cloud the future. Rarely has the Republic seemed so fraught and in jeopardy. Now is the time for clear headed analysis and prescription.

A Conversation With Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad

podcasts@ceip.org (Zalmay Khalilzad, Aaron David Miller) — Thu, 28 Oct 2021 18:31:31 +0000

The recent Taliban military and political takeover of Afghanistan brought an end to two decades of U.S. efforts to transform the country into a democratic, pro-Western polity and to prevent it from again becoming a sanctuary for terror attacks. Why did those efforts fail? What was it about the country and its neighbors that U.S. policymakers failed to understand? And how does Washington hope to protect its counterterrorism and human rights interests going forward?

Join us as former U.S. special representative for Afghanistan reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad sits down with Aaron David Miller to discuss these and other issues.

A Conversation with Dr. Leana Wen on the State of the Pandemic

podcasts@ceip.org (leana wen, aaron david miller) — Fri, 22 Oct 2021 02:15:18 +0000

As the coronavirus' delta variant recedes and new U.S. COVID-19 cases decline by more than a third, it is possible to imagine—at least in the United States—a more normal future beyond the pandemic. Vaccine resistance and the politicization of public health remain serious problems, and failure to prioritize and accomplish rapid, global vaccination will ensure a resurgence of the pandemic. But vaccines offer the possibility of transitioning to a world where the virus is no longer a grave threat. What steps need to be taken at home and abroad to fully overcome the destructive impact of the pandemic globally?

Join us for a special episode featuring Dr. Leana Wen in conversation with Aaron David Miller to discuss the state of the coronavirus in America and the world and what measures need to be taken to end a pandemic that has claimed more than 4.8 million lives, including over 700,000 in the United States, and infected at least 237 million worldwide.

A Conversation with Robert Malley, U.S. Special Envoy for Iran

podcasts@ceip.org (Robert Malley, Aaron David Miller) — Wed, 13 Oct 2021 19:38:14 +0000

The Islamic Republic of Iran represents one of the greatest challenges in the Middle East and beyond for the Biden administration. As the United States approaches the prospect of a seventh round of negotiations in Vienna over the fate of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), what are the chances for success? Is the agreement still viable? If not, is a broader framework realistic? And if negotiations don’t succeed, what are the options for the United States to manage Iran’s putative nuclear aspirations and its regional ambitions?

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A Conversation With the Honorable Madeleine K. Albright

podcasts@ceip.org (Aaron David Miller, Madeleine Albright) — Fri, 8 Oct 2021 16:58:17 +0000

Professor, author, diplomat, and businesswoman, Madeleine K. Albright served as America’s sixty-fourth secretary of state from 1997–2001 and, at the time, was the highest-ranking woman in the history of the U.S. government. Please join us as Aaron David Miller sits down with Secretary Albright for a conversation on America’s foreign policy, politics, and the current domestic and external challenges facing the United States.

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A Conversation With The Honorable James A. Baker, III

podcasts@ceip.org (James Baker, Aaron David Miller) — Thu, 30 Sep 2021 15:40:59 +0000

James A. Baker, III, occupies a unique place in the history of American foreign policy and politics. He is the only person to serve as Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, and White House Chief of Staff (twice). He also led five presidential campaigns. Please join us as Aaron David Miller sits down with America’s 61st Secretary of State for a discussion of U.S. foreign policy, domestic politics, and the state of the world.

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Can We Beat Covid Without Vaccinating the World?

Tue, 18 May 2021 20:46:04 +0000

A pandemic by definition is a threat to global public health, and yet when it comes to production and distribution of vaccines, the world is reacting with national, not international, priorities in mind. Aside from the moral hazard of an approach based on every country for itself, there are compelling public health, economic, and political reasons for adopting a global view of the problem and solution.

Join us as Peter J. Hotez, Kate O’Brien, and Muhammad Ali Pate sit down with Aaron David Miller to wrestle with the questions—how do we vaccinate the world and what are the risks and consequences if we don’t?

Watch the full event.

SPEAKERS

Peter J. Hotez, MD, PhD, is a professor of pediatrics and molecular virology and microbiology and the founding dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, where he is also the codirector of the Texas Children's Center for Vaccine Development. He is the author of Blue Marble Health: An Innovative Plan to Fight Diseases of the Poor Amid Wealth and Vaccines Did Not Cause Rachel's Autism: My Journey as a Vaccine Scientist, Pediatrician, and Autism Dad.

Kate O'Brien is director of the Immunization, Vaccines, and Biologicals Department at the World Health Organization (WHO). In this role she is responsible for leading the WHO’s strategy and implementation to advance the vision of a world where everyone, everywhere, at every age, fully benefits from vaccines for good health and wellbeing. Dr. O’Brien also serves as WHO’s technical lead of COVAX, the vaccine pillar of the Access to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator (ACT-A). The mission of COVAX is to deliver 2 billion doses of the COVID-19 vaccine by the end of 2021 to help end the acute phase of the pandemic.

Muhammad Ali Pate is the global director of the Health, Nutrition, and Population (HNP) Global Practice of the World Bank and the director of Global Financing Facility for Women, Children and Adolescents (GFF), based in Washington, DC. Dr. Pate was until recently the chief executive officer of Big Win Philanthropy, based in the UK, and prior to that held several senior positions, including that of minister of state for health in Nigeria.

Aaron David Miller is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, focusing on U.S. foreign policy.

Asset, Liability, or Both: The Future of U.S.-Saudi Relations

Tue, 18 May 2021 20:45:54 +0000

With the release of the incriminating U.S. intelligence report on the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, President Biden—in a sharp break with the Trump administration—has clearly outlined his intention to recalibrate the U.S.-Saudi relationship to ensure it advances U.S. interests and values.

Are the administration’s initial steps sufficient to rebalance the relationship? Or does more need to be done? What impact has this shift had on Saudi internal politics, specifically on the standing of the crown prince? And even more fundamentally, with the fracturing of the decades-long oil-for-security trade-off, what are the U.S. interests in its relationship with the kingdom in 2021?

Join us as Yasmine Farouk, Bernard Haykel, and Robin Wright sit down with Aaron David Miller to address these and other issues.

Watch the full event.

SPEAKERS

Yasmine Farouk is a visiting fellow in the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Bernard Haykel is a scholar of the Arabian Peninsula, focusing on the history, politics, and economics of Saudi Arabia, the other Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC), and Yemen. He is a professor of Near Eastern studies at Princeton University.

Robin Wright, a former Carnegie fellow, is a columnist for the New Yorker and a joint fellow at the U.S. Institute of Peace and the Wilson Center. She has covered the Middle East for almost a half century.

Aaron David Miller is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, focusing on U.S. foreign policy.

Analyzing and Defeating Right-Wing Extremism

Tue, 18 May 2021 20:45:40 +0000

The storming of the U.S. Capitol shocked those in the United States and around the world, but the ideological roots of the right-wing groups leading the attack that day reside deep in the nation’s soil. It comes as no surprise that law enforcement has identified domestic extremism as the gravest internal security threat to the United States, but who are these groups; what are their origins and objectives; and how much support do they have among the public, the military, and in law enforcement? And, more importantly, what can be done to combat them in the realm of social media where disinformation and conspiracy theories thrive?

Join us as Marc Ginsberg, Rachel Kleinfeld, and Mary McCord sit down with Aaron David Miller to address these and other questions.

Watch the full event.

SPEAKERS

Marc Ginsberg is the president of the Coalition for a Safer Web. Ginsberg is also the former U.S. ambassador to Morocco and White House Middle East adviser.

Rachel Kleinfeld is a senior fellow in Carnegie's Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, where she focuses on issues of rule of law, security, and governance in post-conflict countries, fragile states, and states in transition.

Mary McCord is the executive director and legal director at the Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection (ICAP) and a visiting professor of law at Georgetown University Law Center. She previously served as the acting assistant attorney general for national security at the U.S. Department of Justice and principal deputy assistant attorney general for the National Security Division.

Aaron David Miller is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, focusing on U.S. foreign policy.