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to get a daily intel brief on Russia, China, Iran, Economics/Sanctions, Espionage, and more

CSIS senior adviser and retired Marine Colonel Mark Cancian joins Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn to examine America’s missile shortages, Ukraine’s air defense crisis, and the implications for deterring China.

Revisiting his April report on munitions inventories, Cancian explains why Patriot and THAAD interceptors are especially difficult to replace. He gives his stockpile estimates, assesses the production bottlenecks, and considers what could help Ukraine sooner.

For background on the weapons discussed, explore the U.S. Arsenal Map (https://www.restrictedhandling.com/power-network/united-states/arsenal).

In this episode, we cover:

• Patriot, THAAD and SM-3 inventories, and the risk of a Pacific conflict
• Why expanding production takes years, even with more funding
• How planning for short wars squeezed out industrial surge capacity
• Critical minerals and competing civilian demand
• The obstacles to manufacturing Patriot interceptors in Ukraine
• Cheap drones, expensive defenses and emerging counter-drone systems
• Allied stockpile deals and the difficulty of hunting mobile launchers

Glenn brings observations from Ukraine, where shortages force painful choices about what to protect. The conversation connects factory output to civilian survival, allied commitments and U.S. readiness.

Go deeper with Restricted Handling

• Explore the military command and strategic institutions in the China Power Network (https://www.restrictedhandling.com/power-network/china).
• Revisit Dave Berke on Iran, Drones, and the Future of Air War (https://www.restrictedhandling.com/dave-berke-air-war) for his perspective on adapting to drones and finding mobile missile launchers.

Timeline / chapters

00:00 Introducing Mark Cancian
01:10 Patriot, THAAD and the shortage of substitutes
03:40 How Patriot performs against advanced missiles
04:54 How many interceptors are left?
05:51 The China contingency and interception trade-offs
08:22 Can America accelerate missile production?
12:56 How short-war planning stripped out surge capacity
15:55 Critical minerals and the civilian economy
17:07 Zelensky’s Patriot demands and U.S. supply limits
20:32 Who gets the next Patriot interceptor?
21:59 Can Ukraine manufacture Patriot interceptors?
24:58 Cheap drones, jet-powered threats and countermeasures
29:10 Glenn’s account of Ukraine’s worsening air defense
31:11 Could allies send Patriots and be backfilled later?
32:29 Why hunting mobile missile launchers is so difficult
34:22 Why Russian air defenses struggle with drones
35:30 Cancian’s Marine artillery and targeting experience
37:01 How to get the RH Daily Intel Brief

About Mark Cancian

Mark Cancian is a senior adviser with the CSIS Defense and Security Department and a retired U.S. Marine Corps Reserve colonel. He previously served as chief of the Force Structure and Investment Division at the Office of Management and Budget.

Mark Cancian at CSIS (https://www.csis.org/people/mark-f-cancian)

Read the report discussed: Last Rounds? Status of Key Munitions at the Iran War Ceasefire (https://www.csis.org/analysis/last-rounds-status-key-munitions-iran-war-ceasefire)

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

Restricted Handling (https://www.restrictedhandling.com/)

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to get a daily intel brief on Russia, China, Iran, Economics/Sanctions, Espionage, and more

John Herbst joins Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn to connect U.S. diplomatic experience with today's strategic choices.

In this episode, we cover:

• Lukoil, sanctions, Ukraine and NATO
• Russia, China, Central Asia and the Caucasus
• U.S. negotiators, Uzbekistan after 9/11, and Iran

Go deeper with Restricted Handling

Explore related conversations in the episode archive.

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 Arm Ukraine to the teeth
• 00:14 Ambassador John Herbst
• 01:08 Lukoil and negotiations
• 06:21 Russia and China
• 09:18 Central Asia and the Middle Corridor
• 17:36 Putin's aims in Ukraine
• 20:47 Russian active measures
• 35:48 Negotiating with Moscow
• 43:57 Uzbekistan after 9/11
• 47:29 Ukraine and NATO
• 50:08 Iran and U.S. strategy
• 54:52 Closing and the RH community

About John Herbst

Former U.S. ambassador to Uzbekistan and Ukraine, Herbst leads the Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council.

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting.

Restricted Handling

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👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast at [Restricted Handling](https://www.restrictedhandling.com/) (https://www.restrictedhandling.com/) to get a daily intel brief on Russia, China, Iran, Economics/Sanctions, Espionage, and more

Russian submarines, vulnerable undersea cables, and Arctic shipping routes are bringing the High North into sharper focus. Ryan sits down with Dr. Steve Wills, a 20-year U.S. Navy veteran and navalist at the Center for Maritime Strategy, to explain what is at stake for the United States and its allies.

Steve describes a modern Russian cruise missile submarine as an underwater Bismarck: difficult to find, dangerous to pursue, and capable of threatening targets ashore. He explains why Greenland and the Greenland-Iceland-UK gap matter, how Arctic conditions complicate cable repairs, and what China wants from a region far from its own coastline.

For background on the Russian security and energy institutions behind these issues, explore the [Russia Power Network](https://www.restrictedhandling.com/power-network/russia) (https://www.restrictedhandling.com/power-network/russia).

In this episode, we cover:

- Undersea cable threats around Svalbard and the difficulty of Arctic repairs - The Northern Sea Route, Russian control, and shadow fleet sanctions evasion - Greenland's military value and the submarine routes into the North Atlantic - Deep-diving Russian submarines, undersea vehicles, and lessons from Ukraine's drone war - China's Arctic energy interests and growing shipbuilding capacity - Canada's icebreakers, shipyards, and practical cooperation with the United States - Life at sea, Cold War naval strategy, and Steve's souvenir from the cruiser Moskva

The conversation connects the Arctic's geography to everyday security: the cables carrying data, the ships moving energy, and the naval forces protecting access.

Go deeper with Restricted Handling

- Explore the [Russia Arsenal Map](https://www.restrictedhandling.com/power-network/russia/arsenal) (https://www.restrictedhandling.com/power-network/russia/arsenal) for related background on missile systems, including the sea-launched Kalibr. - Revisit [What Sanctions Cost Russia, Even When It Finds a Way Around](https://www.restrictedhandling.com/roman-steblivskyi-russia) (https://www.restrictedhandling.com/roman-steblivskyi-russia), our June 29 conversation with Roman Steblivskyi, for more on sanctions enforcement and Russia's shadow fleet.

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 Russia's underwater threat and introducing Steve Wills • 01:11 Dog sledding and polar bears on Svalbard • 02:14 Life at sea and steel beach picnics • 04:36 Undersea cable threats and difficult Arctic repairs • 07:05 Why the High North matters: resources and shipping • 09:40 The Northern Sea Route and dealing with Russia • 13:16 Russia's shadow fleet and sanctions evasion • 15:25 Greenland, Cold War bases, and Project Iceworm • 18:16 Russian submarines and the Greenland-Iceland-UK gap • 21:45 Underwater drones and Russia's deep-sea capabilities • 24:08 U.S. naval reach versus Russia's Northern Fleet • 26:38 What China wants in the Arctic • 29:06 The Arctic risks people overlook • 31:24 Canada, icebreakers, and ship maintenance • 33:30 NATO service and favorite port visits • 36:17 Cold War strategy and Soviet submarine bastions • 37:20 Steve's Moskva souvenir and a Cold War time capsule • 39:17 China's shipbuilding advantage: quantity versus quality

About Steve Wills

Dr. Steve Wills is a navalist at the Center for Maritime Strategy. He served 20 years as a U.S. Navy officer, with assignments at the Defense Intelligence Agency and NATO. His work focuses on naval strategy, surface warfare, and Cold War naval history.

[Steve Wills at the Center for Maritime Strategy](https://centerformaritimestrategy.org/experts/dr-steven-wills/) (https://centerformaritimestrategy.org/experts/dr-steven-wills/)

[Restricted Handling](https://www.restrictedhandling.com/) (https://www.restrictedhandling.com/)

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Ambassador John Tefft joins Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn to explain how Moscow sees Ukraine, why he doubts Putin is ready for a lasting settlement, and what American negotiators need to understand before sitting across from the Kremlin.

Across 45 years in the Foreign Service, Tefft served as U.S. ambassador to Lithuania, Georgia, Ukraine, and Russia. He brings firsthand stories from NATO negotiations, Ukrainian universities, and a Moscow farewell party where a Russian diplomat said something about Georgia and Ukraine that stayed with him for decades.

His account of Putin's ambitions connects directly to the people and institutions mapped in the Russia Power Network (https://www.restrictedhandling.com/power-network/russia).

In this episode, we cover:

• Why Tefft believes Putin sees territorial expansion as his legacy.
• Russian pressure on NATO, Poland, and the Baltic states.
• Whether a settlement could give Moscow time to rebuild and attack again.
• A 1997 NATO negotiation and the military explanation that silenced the room.
• How Ukrainian civil society challenges Moscow's assumptions.
• Repression, economic strain, and the war's growing costs inside Russia.
• Ukraine's technical talent and its importance to European security.
• Returning to Moscow after retirement and the family commitment behind a diplomatic career.

This conversation connects the terms of a possible peace deal to the question that follows: would it leave Ukraine secure enough to prevent another war?

Go deeper with Restricted Handling

• Explore the Ukraine Arsenal Map (https://www.restrictedhandling.com/power-network/ukraine/arsenal) for background on Ukrainian drones, missiles, aircraft, and air defense.
• Revisit What Would Actually Get Putin to Stop? (https://www.restrictedhandling.com/glenn-corn-russia-iran), the August 14 conversation with Glenn and Ryan about ceasefire terms, sanctions, and the risk of another Russian attack.

Timeline / chapters

• 00:01 Introducing Ambassador John Tefft • 03:36 Are Russia and the West heading toward a shooting war? • 04:49 Putin's ambition to become a "gatherer of lands" • 10:00 Russian hybrid warfare and Baltic deterrence • 16:03 Would Putin accept a lasting compromise? • 20:21 Could a settlement let Russia rebuild and attack again? • 21:51 The 1997 NATO negotiation that silenced the room • 23:46 What Moscow misunderstands about Ukrainian society • 27:52 The war's growing costs inside Russia • 34:03 Ukraine's universities and wartime innovation • 36:06 What negotiators need when dealing with Moscow • 37:34 What students in eastern Ukraine actually wanted • 39:10 Why Tefft made university visits a diplomatic priority • 42:17 Russia's 1990s transition and the roots of today's conflict • 44:10 A Moscow farewell party and a revealing remark • 45:54 Coming out of retirement for Moscow • 49:18 The unexpected Rome assignment his family loved • 51:57 Professionalism, family sacrifice, and public service

About John Tefft

John Tefft served as U.S. ambassador to Lithuania, Georgia, Ukraine, and Russia during a 45-year Foreign Service career. His assignments included leading the embassy in Georgia during the 2008 war and returning from retirement to serve in Moscow.

Read his RAND commentary discussed in this episode: The War Is Coming Home to Russia (https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2026/02/the-war-is-coming-home-to-russia.html).

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

Restricted Handling (https://www.restrictedhandling.com/)

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Back from Ukraine, Glenn joins Ryan Fugit to recount a drone strike near the Polish border while traveling with a delegation led by General David Petraeus. He describes repeated evacuations, anti-aircraft fire overhead, railway workers shouting for passengers to run, and families moving into nearby fields. Glenn says nobody was hurt in the incident.

He also explains why he believes the strike was intended to intimidate foreign visitors and threaten Ukraine's connections to the outside world. For background on the leadership and institutions discussed, explore the Russia Power Network (https://www.restrictedhandling.com/power-network/russia).

In this episode, we cover:

• The evacuation, explosion, and eventual crossing into Poland.
• Ukrainian railway workers who had to turn around and return to danger.
• Glenn's assessment of the message to foreign visitors, including Petraeus and Boris Johnson.
• Traveling with Petraeus and the everyday strain on Ukrainian civilians.
• Why praise for Ukrainian resilience can ring hollow without help.
• Sanctions, air defense shortages, and Glenn's Berlin Airlift analogy for a winter supply effort.
• Putin, the G20, energy ceasefire skepticism, and possible NATO air defense options.

An eyewitness account of one frightening journey opens a larger discussion about keeping Ukraine connected, supplied, and protected as winter approaches.

• Explore the aircraft, drones, and air defense systems in the Ukraine Arsenal Map (https://www.restrictedhandling.com/power-network/ukraine/arsenal).
• Revisit Glenn Corn and Ghost on Ukraine, 9/11, and the Cost of War (https://www.restrictedhandling.com/glenn-corn-ghost-ukraine), our September 11 conversation on civilian resilience, battlefield adaptation, and a veteran's recovery.

• 00:00 Glenn returns from a nearby drone strike
• 02:12 The rail route from Ukraine into Poland
• 07:26 Evacuated again as the train waits near the border
• 09:02 Anti-aircraft fire, warnings to run, and the explosion
• 12:35 The railway workers who had to go back
• 15:02 Glenn's assessment: a warning to foreign visitors
• 20:27 What traveling with General Petraeus is like
• 22:09 Ukrainian civilians living with constant attacks
• 24:47 Ryan explains danger close
• 25:42 Sanctions, accurate reporting, and air defense
• 27:29 A Berlin Airlift analogy for supplying Ukraine
• 29:15 Putin, the G20, and Russian influence channels
• 31:40 Would an energy infrastructure ceasefire hold?
• 32:42 Ryan's NATO hypothesis and Ukraine's approaching winter
• 35:40 Could NATO aircraft help intercept drones?
• 38:17 Mayday, jet lag, and Glenn's Ukrainian banya experience
• 41:38 Upcoming guests and a Petraeus invitation
• 42:17 Get the RH Daily Intel Brief

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

Restricted Handling (https://www.restrictedhandling.com/)

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👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast at https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ to get a daily intel brief on Russia, China, Iran, Economics/Sanctions, Espionage, and more

Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn mark the anniversary of 9/11 with Glenn reporting from Kyiv. Glenn recalls watching the first plane hit the World Trade Center from an overseas posting, the order that followed, and the relentless years of operations that transformed the CIA and the military.

The conversation then turns to Ukraine. Glenn describes Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure, Ukrainian resilience ahead of another hard winter, the limits of current peace negotiations, and why drones and constant surveillance are pushing the war underground.

In the second half, Glenn speaks with Ghost, a Ukrainian combat veteran who fought in the Avdiivka direction. Ghost recounts running into danger to help wounded comrades, surviving an artillery strike after a combat medic shielded him from the blast, and recovering from a brain injury and ruptured eardrums. He now helps other Ukrainian soldiers confront combat stress and psychological trauma.

In this episode, we cover:

• Where Ryan and Glenn were on 9/11 • The quiet courage and lasting costs of the post-9/11 wars • Mike Spann and the opening chapter of the war in Afghanistan • Ukrainian morale ahead of another difficult winter • What Russian strikes reveal about Putin's approach to negotiations • A potential larger role for CIA Director John Ratcliffe • How drones, artificial intelligence, and surveillance are driving warfare underground • Ghost's first combat missions with the Third Assault Brigade • The combat medic who sacrificed himself to save Ghost • Ukraine's evolving approach to combat stress and psychological recovery

This episode connects two generations of war through duty, sacrifice, deterrence, and the human consequences that remain after the headlines move on.

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 Why John Ratcliffe may matter in Ukraine peace talks • 00:22 Ryan and Glenn open from Kyiv • 02:03 A Russian strike erupts during Glenn's Ukraine call • 05:55 Where Glenn was on 9/11 • 09:05 Quiet courage, CIA duty, and the cost of war • 14:23 How the war on terror narrowed America's focus • 15:44 Ukraine's morale before another hard winter • 18:37 What Putin's strikes say about peace negotiations • 21:06 Ratcliffe, Moscow, and the language of strength • 24:56 Why drone warfare is driving soldiers underground • 28:34 Hybrid warfare, sabotage networks, and Glenn's message from Kyiv • 30:57 Glenn introduces Ghost in Kyiv • 32:53 From economics student to Third Assault Brigade soldier • 36:56 Why Ghost ran into danger to rescue his comrades • 37:48 The artillery strike and the medic who saved Ghost • 40:29 Brain injury, evacuation, and learning to speak again • 41:24 Helping soldiers confront combat stress • 44:43 A more brutal battlefield and what shapes frontline morale • 47:01 How Ghost got his call sign

About Ghost

Ghost is a Ukrainian combat veteran who joined the Third Assault Brigade, fought as an infantryman in the Avdiivka direction, and survived a severe artillery strike. After recovering from a brain injury and ruptured eardrums, he began helping soldiers in the Third Army Corps with morale and psychological recovery.

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

Restricted Handling https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

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👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast at https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ to get a daily intel brief on Russia, China, Iran, Economics/Sanctions, Espionage, and more

Ryan Fugit sits down with Iran expert and author Alex Vatanka to examine who holds power inside the Islamic Republic, why the regime has survived sustained pressure, and what a realistic American strategy would require.

Vatanka explains why Mojtaba Khamenei's absence leaves unanswered questions, how Revolutionary Guard networks shape decisions, and why disagreements inside the regime still matter. He also challenges the assumption that airstrikes and economic sanctions alone can deliver regime change.

In this episode, we cover:

• What we can and cannot conclude about Mojtaba Khamenei's absence • Why the IRGC could benefit from a politically weak supreme leader • The divide between factions seeking a deal and those preparing for prolonged confrontation • How Washington could support Iranian civil society • Iran's enriched uranium and the limits of destroying nuclear facilities • The Strait of Hormuz, energy markets, and economic warfare • Why public anger does not automatically become an uprising • What the United States needs to decide about its end state • Polymarket questions about Mojtaba's public return and a possible American ground invasion

The central question: how does military pressure become a political outcome? Vatanka lays out the stakes for Washington, the Iranian people, and the wider region.

Prediction-market figures discussed reflect the conversation at the time of recording.

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 Alex Vatanka's warning on the Iran war • 00:59 Is Mojtaba alive, and who is running Iran? • 05:09 Why Mojtaba was chosen as supreme leader • 08:06 Can military pressure and sanctions force a deal? • 11:06 The factions dividing Iran's leadership • 15:56 How the US could support Iranian civil society • 19:43 Iran's enriched uranium and nuclear bargaining power • 20:33 Sponsor message • 21:31 Hormuz, economic warfare, and rebuilding nuclear capabilities • 23:55 How to track Iran's competing power networks • 26:20 Could economic decline trigger an uprising? • 29:43 What should America's end state in Iran be? • 32:52 Polymarket: Will Mojtaba make a public appearance? • 33:59 Polymarket: Will the US launch a ground invasion?

About Alex Vatanka

Alex Vatanka is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute specializing in Middle Eastern security, with a particular focus on Iran. Born in Tehran, he previously served as a senior analyst at Jane's Information Group in London and has testified before the US Congress. His work examines Iranian domestic politics, security networks, and foreign policy. Official MEI biography

MEI profile and latest analysis: https://mei.edu/person/alex-vatanka/

Personal website and biography: https://www.vatanka.com/about

His books:

1. The Battle of the Ayatollahs in Iran: The United States, Foreign Policy, and Political Rivalry since 1979 (2021) Explores how the rivalry between Ali Khamenei and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani shaped Iran's politics and foreign policy. This is the book most directly connected to your conversation about competing power networks. Publisher page at Bloomsbury / I.B. Tauris

2. Iran and Pakistan: Security, Diplomacy and American Influence (2015; paperback 2017) Examines the relationship between Tehran and Islamabad, including cooperation and tensions over Afghanistan, religion, security, and American influence. Publisher page at Bloomsbury / I.B. Tauris Book page on Alex's website

More from Restricted Handling: https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

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👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast at https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ to get a daily intel brief on Russia, China, Iran, Economics/Sanctions, Espionage, and more

Ryan Fugit sits down with Dave Berke, a retired Marine Corps fighter pilot, former TOPGUN instructor, and the only Marine ever to fly the F-22 Raptor.

Drawing on combat missions, carrier deployments, and experience flying the F-18, F-16, F-22, and F-35, Berke explains what extended operations at sea demand from sailors and aviators, why Iran can continue launching missiles after a massive strike campaign, and how drones are forcing the military to rethink air warfare.

In this episode, we cover:

• What more than 250 days at sea can do to an aircraft carrier crew • Steam catapults versus electromagnetic launch systems • Why promising military technology sometimes gets worse before it gets better • What Ukraine has demonstrated about drones, autonomy, and AI • How TOPGUN and frontline warfighters are adapting to unmanned warfare • Why Iran's mobile missile launchers are so difficult to eliminate • What reported aircraft losses reveal about modern combat • How decentralized command gives American forces an advantage • Why Berke filled his leadership book with his own mistakes • Jocko Willink's advice to write 1,000 words a day

This conversation offers a rare operator's view of carrier aviation, technological change, and the uncomfortable reality that even the world's most capable military cannot remove every threat from the battlefield.

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 The Herculean performance of carrier aviation over Iran • 00:24 Meet former TOPGUN instructor Dave Berke • 02:47 What 250 days at sea does to a carrier crew • 06:25 The shore leave question no one can answer on air • 08:00 Steam catapults versus electromagnetic launch systems • 11:13 What Ukraine teaches the U.S. military about drones and AI • 13:20 How TOPGUN is adapting to unmanned warfare • 14:48 Why Iran's mobile missile launchers are so hard to eliminate • 17:54 What reported U.S. aircraft losses reveal about modern combat • 20:12 Why even a dominant military still takes losses • 21:34 Decentralized command and the future of American airpower • 24:06 Why writing The Need to Lead was so difficult • 26:19 Jocko's 1,000-words-a-day advice • 27:08 Why authentic failure makes leadership lessons stronger • 28:19 How junior pilots helped Berke master the F-22

About Dave Berke

Dave Berke is a retired Marine Corps fighter pilot, former TOPGUN graduate and instructor, and the only Marine ever to fly the F-22 Raptor. He flew combat missions from aircraft carriers and in Iraq and Afghanistan, commanded the world's first F-35B squadron, and is rated on the F-18 and F-16. He is now the Chief Development Officer at Echelon Front and the author of The Need to Lead: A Top Gun Instructor's Lessons on How Leadership Solves Every Challenge.

The Need to Lead: A TOPGUN Instructor's Lessons on How Leadership Solves Every Challenge

In The Need to Lead, retired Marine fighter pilot and former TOPGUN instructor Dave Berke transforms hard-earned lessons from aerial combat, ground operations, business, and family life into a practical guide to leadership. Through candid stories about mistakes, pressure, humility, and growth, Berke shows that leadership is a skill anyone can develop. The book features a foreword by Jocko Willink and offers useful lessons for anyone responsible for leading a team, a family, or themselves.

Restricted Handling https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

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👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast at https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ to get a daily intel brief on Russia, China, Iran, Economics/Sanctions, Espionage, and more

Ryan Fugit sits down with North Korea expert Rachel Minyoung Lee to examine what Kim Jong Un wants from renewed diplomacy with President Trump and why Pyongyang now believes it is negotiating from a position of strength.

Rachel explains how analysts separate real signals from North Korean propaganda, why Kim Yo Jong's measured response to Trump matters, and how North Korea uses the rank of its messenger to control the authority of every statement.

The conversation also examines what North Korea is gaining from its relationship with Russia, including economic benefits, political protection, battlefield experience, drone lessons, and possible conventional military technology.

In this episode, we cover:

• Why Kim Jong Un's daughter's reported name remains unconfirmed • How analysts find meaningful signals inside North Korean propaganda • Kim Yo Jong's carefully calibrated response to Trump • Why Pyongyang sees Trump as a diplomatic opportunity • North Korea's demand for recognition of its nuclear status • How the Iran conflict reinforces Kim's nuclear strategy • What North Korea is gaining from the war in Ukraine • Why North Korean forces now possess real battlefield experience • Russia's possible role in modernizing North Korea's conventional military • China's influence over North Korea and its reluctance to use it • The likelihood of another Trump-Kim summit • How a failed summit could increase the risk of miscalculation or conflict

This episode explains why personal rapport alone cannot resolve the North Korean nuclear problem. Kim Jong Un has more options, more confidence, and more powerful partners than he did during the 2018 and 2019 summits. If Washington misreads that shift, another high-profile meeting could leave the Korean Peninsula more dangerous.

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 Rachel Minyoung Lee on decoding North Korea • 01:33 Why Kim Jong Un's daughter's reported name may be wrong • 03:54 Finding the real signal inside North Korean propaganda • 05:41 Why the rank of the messenger changes the message • 09:02 Kim Yo Jong responds to Trump's renewed outreach • 13:24 Why Pyongyang sees Trump as a golden opportunity • 16:35 Downsized military exercises and demands for more concessions • 17:24 Nuclear recognition as North Korea's price for engagement • 19:05 How the Iran conflict reinforces Kim's nuclear strategy • 21:53 What North Korea is getting from Russia • 24:41 Battlefield lessons, drones, and North Korea's combat edge • 26:28 Why Russia may favor conventional military transfers • 29:17 What China wants from North Korea • 31:43 China's leverage and why Beijing will not use it • 36:08 Trump's fascination, bromance, and unfinished business • 39:14 Nuclear recognition and the unclear US endgame • 40:37 How another Trump-Kim photo op could backfire • 43:16 Deterrence gaps and the growing risk of miscalculation

About Rachel Minyoung Lee

Rachel Minyoung Lee is a senior fellow for the Stimson Center's Korea Program and 38 North. She previously spent two decades as a North Korea collection expert and analyst with the US government's Open Source Enterprise, formerly known as the Open Source Center. Her work has covered North Korean leadership, politics, economics, foreign policy, security, and public messaging.

Official 38 North profile: https://www.38north.org/author/rachel-minyoung-lee/

Restricted Handling: https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

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👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast at https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ to get a daily intel brief on Russia, China, Iran, Economics/Sanctions, Espionage, and more

In this Restricted Handling quickie, Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn break down CIA Director John Ratcliffe's reported eight-hour visit to Moscow and what it could mean for the war in Ukraine.

Speaking from Ukraine, Glenn separates the known facts from the speculation surrounding the trip. Ryan and Glenn assess the messages Ratcliffe may have delivered, why Washington chose the CIA channel, and whether pressure from the Trump administration could restart negotiations.

In this episode, we cover:

• What Ratcliffe may have been sent to tell Moscow • Possible warnings involving sanctions, NATO, Black Sea ports, and Iran • Why Russia values intelligence backchannels to the White House • Why Trump may have chosen Ratcliffe instead of Witkoff or Kushner • Zelensky's political position and Ukraine's internal turmoil • The unusual arrival of a security officer as the senior U.S. diplomat in Kyiv • Ukrainian morale following Independence Day • Patriot interceptors and air defense cooperation with London • Possible ceasefire terms involving Crimea and Russian energy infrastructure

This conversation explores whether intelligence diplomacy backed by credible pressure can move Russia toward negotiations without allowing Moscow to use talks to buy time on the battlefield.

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 Cold open: The reported warning to Putin • 00:09 Ryan and Glenn begin the Restricted Handling quickie • 00:56 Glenn checks in from Ukraine • 01:49 John Ratcliffe's reported eight-hour Moscow visit • 02:08 What Washington may have told Putin • 03:51 Kremlin denial and the reported ceasefire framework • 04:40 Why Moscow values intelligence backchannels • 07:03 Why Ratcliffe instead of Witkoff or Kushner? • 07:57 Is Zelensky's political position getting weaker? • 08:19 Internal turmoil and the new U.S. diplomatic representative • 09:30 Ukrainian Independence Day and the danger of internal division • 10:19 Patriot interceptors and cooperation with London • 10:49 Could negotiations restart? • 11:07 Crimea, energy strikes, and possible ceasefire terms

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

Restricted Handling https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

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👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast at https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ to get a daily intel brief on Russia, China, Iran, Economics/Sanctions, Espionage, and more

We're joined by returning guest Sarkis Karabashian to unpack Armenia's pivotal six months: Pashinyan's re-election, Russian pressure, the U.S. strategic partnership, the TRIP route, and a major AI infrastructure bet linking Armenia and Kazakhstan.

In this episode, we cover:

• What Armenia's election result means for its trajectory away from Russia
• Russia's leverage through gas, trade restrictions, intelligence, and political pressure
• What the U.S.-Armenia strategic partnership does and does not provide
• The TRIP route and its role in regional connectivity
• Firebird's planned AI factory and Armenia-Kazakhstan fiber connection
• Armenia's careful balancing act with Iran
• Azerbaijan's constitutional demand before a formal peace agreement
• Why Kazakhstan's technology ambitions matter for the region
• Armenia's push for corporate diplomacy in Washington

Armenia sits in one of the world's hardest neighborhoods. This conversation explores how a small state is working to diversify its partnerships, strengthen sovereign capacity, and create enough strategic value that larger powers have an interest in its stability.

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 Armenia, Iran, and strategic ambiguity • 00:14 Armenia's new political window • 01:26 Stability after the election • 03:17 Russian economic pressure and EAEU tensions • 04:38 What the U.S. partnership gives Armenia • 06:46 Firebird's AI factory and strategic infrastructure • 09:33 The TRIP route explained • 11:28 Connecting Armenia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and the Caspian • 13:36 Israel, Turkey, and Syria's regional friction • 16:17 Russia's retaliation levers • 19:23 Balancing Washington and Tehran • 22:55 Pashinyan's mandate and Armenia's constitution • 27:24 Diaspora connections and Armenia's U.S. support • 28:47 Kazakhstan's AI and digital-state ambitions • 31:21 What regional states are waiting for after Putin • 32:04 Armenia's long-term break from Russian dependence • 33:02 Corporate diplomacy as Armenia's next play

About Sarkis Karabashian

Sarkis Karabashian returns to discuss Armenia after recent travel in the region, including his observations of public sentiment, regional infrastructure, and the country's evolving relationships with the United States, Russia, Iran, and its neighbors. Find Sarkis at https://www.linkedin.com/in/sarkiskarabashian/

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Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn examine what Moscow may actually require to stop the war in Ukraine and how Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff should approach potential negotiations with Moscow and Kyiv.

They also discuss how the Iran war could strengthen Putin's position by diverting attention and critical PAC-3 interceptors from Ukraine, along with naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz, IRGC propaganda, Russian threats against European shipping, and the potential threat to Air Force One in Turkey.

In this episode, we cover:

• Why Glenn believes Putin is negotiating from weakness • The military and economic pressure Washington can apply • Ukraine's shortage of PAC-3 interceptors • The structure of a potentially enforceable ceasefire • Sanctions relief as a diplomatic incentive • Territory, NATO membership, and Putin's maximalist demands • How the Iran war diverts resources from Ukraine • What an IRGC general revealed in a rare Western interview • The potential Iranian threat against Air Force One • Russian and Ukrainian battlefield losses • What the Battle of Fort Mercer teaches about Ukrainian resistance • The devastating earthquake in Colombia

This conversation offers a direct look at the pressure points shaping Ukraine negotiations and the danger of allowing Moscow or Tehran to manufacture an illusion of strength.

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 What Witkoff and Kushner should tell Putin • 00:21 Ukraine negotiations, Iran, and the episode ahead • 00:59 Glenn prepares for the UK, Ukraine, and Ukrainian lessons • 03:57 Drone pranks, remote pilots, and Navy Hellfires • 07:56 What Putin actually needs to end the Ukraine war • 11:49 Ukraine's PAC-3 shortage and Russia's ballistic campaign • 13:14 An enforceable ceasefire and the sanctions question • 15:36 Territory, NATO, and Putin's core demands • 18:45 Can any agreement with Putin last? • 21:15 Robert Gilman's release and Russian threats at sea • 23:23 How the Iran war gives Putin leverage • 27:55 Why US envoys need to visit Ukraine • 29:15 Inside the IRGC's propaganda campaign • 33:16 The potential Iranian threat to Air Force One • 36:57 Russian support for Iran and the strategy of patience • 38:43 The human cost of the Ukraine war • 39:28 What Fort Mercer teaches about Ukrainian resistance • 41:54 Colombia's election and devastating earthquake

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

Restricted Handling https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast at https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ to get a daily intel brief on Russia, China, Iran, Economics/Sanctions, Espionage, and more

Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn are joined by Ralph Goff, a retired senior CIA operations officer and six-time Chief of Station across Europe, the Middle East, war zones, Central Asia, and South Asia, for a fast-moving discussion on Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Gaza, Turkey, Ukraine, and the shifting politics of U.S. support for Israel.

The conversation starts with the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. leverage over Israel, and the negotiations around Lebanon and Gaza. From there, Ralph and Glenn dig into whether Hezbollah or Hamas can realistically disarm, why Turkey and Israel may be on a collision course, and how AIPAC's role in American politics is changing.

They also connect the Middle East crisis to Ukraine, missile defense shortages, Patriot interceptors, Iran's internal factions, and the long-term energy shifts that could hurt both Tehran and Moscow.

In this episode, we cover:

• Why Ralph sees Iran as the top U.S. priority right now • Whether Trump has unusual leverage over Israel • The challenge of disarming Hezbollah and Hamas • Why Gaza ceasefire talks may be a long shot • Turkey's growing role in the Israel, Syria, and Hamas equation • How U.S. politics around Israel are changing after October 7 • Iran's internal hardliner dynamics and the problem of Mujtaba • Patriot interceptor shortages and Ukraine's air defense crisis • Syria's opportunity to reduce reliance on Russian oil • Ralph's story behind a battle-worn Ukrainian flag

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 Ryan introduces Glenn Corn and Ralph Goff • 00:51 Why Iran is the top U.S. priority right now • 02:14 Oil markets, Hormuz traffic, and Trump's leverage • 03:46 Does the U.S. still have leverage over Israel? • 06:00 Lebanon's opportunity and Hezbollah disarmament • 08:04 Ralph breaks down the Gaza disarmament problem • 09:21 What happens if there is no Gaza deal? • 11:21 Glenn on why Hezbollah will not disarm easily • 12:45 Turkey, Israel, Syria, Hamas, and the F-35 question • 15:19 AIPAC, U.S. politics, and changing Israel support • 17:29 Glenn on anti-Semitism, Israel criticism, and Kremlin influence • 19:23 Iran, U.S. stockpiles, and the next month of tensions • 21:33 Glenn warns against claims that U.S. arsenals are depleted • 23:02 Ukraine's air defense crisis and Patriot interceptor shortages • 24:24 Ukraine's strike on an Iranian cargo vessel in the Caspian • 25:18 Why producing Patriots under license is so complicated • 27:10 Is Mujtaba still alive? • 28:37 Syria, Russian oil, Iraq, and new energy routes • 31:31 Ralph explains the Ukrainian flag behind him

About Ralph Goff

Ralph Goff is a retired senior CIA operations officer and six-time Chief of Station. In the episode, Ryan describes his service across Europe, the Middle East, war zones, Central Asia, and South Asia, as well as his post-retirement public speaking and commentary on Russia, Ukraine, and national security.

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

Restricted Handling

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What happens to Russia after Vladimir Putin? Peter Clement, a former senior CIA Russia analyst and Columbia University professor, joins Ryan and Glenn to examine the scenarios that could shape post-Putin Russia.

Peter spent more than 40 years at the CIA, including as a Soviet and Russian analyst, PDB briefer, and deputy assistant director for Europe and Eurasia. He and Glenn also discuss their shared Bellport roots and decades studying Russia.

In this episode, we cover:

• The four major post-Putin succession scenarios • Why Putin is unlikely to manage his own retirement • How Putin's death could trigger Kremlin maneuvering • The difference between a soft coup and a hard coup • What the Prigozhin mutiny revealed about Putin's system • Whether Russia could experience a gradual "deputinization" • The real level of domestic pressure facing Putin • How Ukrainian strikes and economic pain could affect Russian politics • Why a mass popular revolt remains a low-probability scenario • The challenges facing CIA analysts trying to understand Russia • The risks and benefits of intelligence mission-center integration • Whether the United States should engage Putin's successor • Lessons from Reagan's engagement with Gorbachev • Why a ceasefire may give Russia time to rebuild • Why Putin's foreign policy may ultimately become a strategic defeat

Peter Clement argues that a popular uprising is possible but unlikely, while internal pressure from the security services and political elite could become increasingly important as the war continues. The conversation also explores whether Putin's successor would continue his imperial ambitions or pursue a more pragmatic course.

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 Peter Clement joins the Restricted Handling Podcast • 01:07 How Glenn and Peter connected through Bellport and Russia • 04:16 Why post-Putin succession planning matters • 08:16 The four scenarios for Putin's exit • 12:33 Kremlin maneuvering, Stalin, and the succession problem • 15:21 Patronage, younger elites, and the possibility of an internal coup • 17:26 Was the Prigozhin mutiny a coup attempt? • 19:26 Soft coups, hard coups, and removing Putin • 21:40 Larineco sponsor spot • 22:44 Putin's paranoia and the Kremlin "nest of vipers" • 24:14 Deputinization and Putin's potential legacy • 29:36 Ukrainian strikes and growing pressure inside Russia • 34:38 Could a mass revolt bring down the regime? • 38:01 The intelligence challenge of understanding modern Russia • 43:52 CIA analysts, operators, and mission-center integration • 48:35 Should the United States engage Putin's successor? • 50:50 Reagan, Gorbachev, and the value of personal diplomacy • 56:04 Which post-Putin scenario is most plausible? • 01:04:30 Iran, mobilization, and the pressure of a prolonged war • 01:08:58 Why Putin's foreign policy may become a strategic defeat • 01:10:08 Closing thoughts and how to follow Restricted Handling

About Peter Clement

Peter Clement spent more than 40 years at the CIA as a Soviet and Russian analyst, PDB briefer, and deputy assistant director for Europe and Eurasia. He received the CIA's Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal and is now a professor at Columbia University. He is also working on a forthcoming Cypher Brief book about CIA analysts and has written on Russian succession scenarios and Putin's nuclear calculus.

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

Learn more at https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast at https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ to get a daily intel brief on Russia, China, Iran, Economics/Sanctions, Espionage, and more

Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn break down a volatile week: a deadly strike in Bucha, leadership changes in Kyiv, Ukraine's campaign against Russian logistics, Russia's familiar negotiation tactics, and mounting pressure on Iran's proxy network.

In this episode, we cover:

• The Bucha strike and accountability during wartime • Ukraine's leadership reshuffle, battlefield momentum, and the reported F-16 air-to-air kill • Laura Loomer's Ukraine visit and her reversal on Russian propaganda • How Russian negotiators use history, ambiguity, and pressure to wear down counterparts • The debate between drones, innovation, manpower, and conventional military power • Lebanon, Hezbollah, Syria, and the opportunity to rebuild state legitimacy • Houthi attacks, Middle East maritime choke points, and the Saudi nuclear agreement • Iran's nuclear ambitions and the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz • Ukraine's strikes on Wildberries and Russia's dual-use logistics network • Glenn's outlook for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and the odds of a Taiwan invasion

The stakes extend well beyond the front lines. Ukraine's internal cohesion, Russia's ability to sustain its war, the future of the Abraham Accords, and Iran's regional reach are increasingly connected.

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 Bucha tragedy and the week's biggest developments • 02:56 Ukraine's leadership reshuffle and battlefield momentum • 05:42 Sanctions pressure, F-16s, and Ukraine's anxious mood • 08:08 Laura Loomer's Ukraine visit and reversing Russian propaganda • 13:12 Russia's negotiating playbook and the "Anchorage agreement" • 17:20 Will Kyiv's shakeup undermine battlefield gains? • 22:14 Drones, manpower, and Ukraine's old-versus-new military debate • 26:12 Lebanon, President Aoun, and Hezbollah's future • 31:56 Houthi attacks, maritime chokepoints, and the Saudi nuclear deal • 34:51 Abraham Accords, Israel, and Saudi normalization • 37:56 Iran's nuclear future and the Strait of Hormuz • 39:11 Russian intelligence cover in Japan • 41:26 Why Ukraine is striking Russia's Wildberries logistics network • 46:44 Ceasefire odds, Taiwan, and what comes next

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

Restricted Handling https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast at https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ to get a daily intel brief on Russia, China, Iran, Economics/Sanctions, Espionage, and more

Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn return to examine the latest developments in international security, geopolitics, and military affairs.

In this episode, we cover:

• Ukraine's deep strikes against Russian logistics and maritime traffic • Ukraine's shrinking air defense capacity • Why Turkey welcomed President Trump at the NATO summit • Turkey's possible return to the F-35 program • New sanctions pressure on Russia and its energy buyers • Political reshuffling and possible corruption concerns in Kyiv • Russia's recruitment of women as manpower shortages grow • Russian espionage and technology acquisition networks in Japan • China's nuclear submarine missile launch and possible signaling • The danger of military exercises being misread as preparations for war • China's detention of an American scientific specialist • Starlink and the emerging satellite battlefield • A few lighter stories about travel, shisha, gum, and Tinto de Verano

This episode connects battlefield developments, sanctions, intelligence operations, alliance politics, and escalation risks across Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, China, and the wider Middle East.

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 Welcome and the World Cup conversation • 03:37 Ukraine's battlefield gains and worsening air defense shortage • 04:48 Why Turkey welcomed President Trump • 06:30 Turkey, the F-35 program, and the Russian S-400 system • 08:24 Trump, Zelensky, and NATO summit outcomes • 08:56 New sanctions pressure on Russia and India • 09:26 Political reshuffling and corruption concerns in Ukraine • 10:48 What an early ambassadorial departure could signal • 14:00 Gulf ceasefire collapse and threats to shipping routes • 15:07 Why the Sea of Azov matters to Russia and Ukraine • 18:28 Russian oligarch messaging and Kremlin information warfare • 21:19 Russia begins recruiting women for military roles • 25:20 Russian espionage and technology collection in Japan • 27:08 The history of espionage through sexual blackmail • 28:13 China's nuclear submarine missile launch • 29:00 How military exercises can create escalation risks • 30:36 Russia and China's interest in targeting Starlink • 31:04 China's detention of an American scientific specialist • 33:17 Glenn tests the sponsored gum • 35:17 Travel, Spain, Gibraltar, and Tinto de Verano • 37:43 World Cup predictions and closing thoughts

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

Learn more at https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

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China is not just stealing secrets, Nick Eftimiades argues it is quietly positioning itself inside the systems America depends on. Nick spent three decades in the intel community, mainly at DIA and exclusively focused on China and it's intel efforts.

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Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn are joined by Nick Eftimiades of Shinobi Enterprises for a deep dive on China's penetration of U.S. critical infrastructure, Beijing's long-term intelligence strategy, and why Congress may be the only place durable counter-China policy can be forced into law.

Nick is heading to the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence to discuss China's subversion of U.S. critical infrastructure and the gaps in America's counterintelligence response. The conversation covers cyber campaigns, compromised supply chains, solar and battery systems, local political influence operations, Cuba, Taiwan, Europe's threat picture, LinkedIn recruitment, and Nick's database of 984 China-related counterintelligence cases.

In this episode, we cover:

• Salt Typhoon, Volt Typhoon, and Chinese penetration of U.S. communications infrastructure • Backdoors and kill switches in Chinese-made infrastructure products • Why the U.S. needs a response strategy, not only stronger defenses • China's long-term patience and why Beijing can wait out U.S. administrations • The Arcadia mayor case and local political influence operations • "Bottom sinking fish" and decades-long asset placement • China's SIGINT presence in Cuba • Whether the Taiwan invasion threat is being overhyped • How Europe balances China, Russia, terrorism, and economic pressure • Nick's China CI database and changes in MSS tradecraft • LinkedIn targeting, fake consultancy approaches, and AI-enabled espionage risks

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 Nick Eftimiades returns ahead of a House Intel roundtable • 01:02 Why Congress is focused on Chinese subversion of U.S. critical infrastructure • 02:46 Salt Typhoon, Volt Typhoon, backdoors, and kill switches • 04:51 Glenn on China's dominance in solar and battery supply chains • 06:32 Moving key supply chains out of China • 07:49 Why cyber defense alone gives Beijing no reason to stop • 09:33 Trump, Xi, and Beijing's ability to wait out administrations • 11:21 Why Congress needs to mandate a durable China strategy • 13:51 The Arcadia mayor case and local political influence operations • 17:05 "Bottom sinking fish" and China's long-term asset strategy • 18:40 Cuba, Chinese SIGINT, and U.S. strategic opportunity • 23:04 Are analysts overselling the China threat? • 24:11 Taiwan, 2027, and the limits of U.S. intelligence • 25:16 How Europe weighs China against Russia and terrorism • 27:36 Nick's 984-case China counterintelligence database • 31:17 Mapping MSS headquarters and estimating the service's size • 33:34 LinkedIn targeting, fake papers, and AI in recruitment • 36:08 Closing thoughts and constituent pressure on Congress

About Nick Eftimiades

Nick Eftimiades is introduced in the episode as being of Shinobi Enterprises and as someone who has spent decades covering China and the China counterintelligence threat. In this conversation, he discusses his work tracking China-related counterintelligence cases, his database of 984 cases, and his current research into Ministry of State Security headquarters locations in China.

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

Restricted Handling: https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

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Sanctions are reshaping Russia's war economy, but only when enforcement turns pressure into real cost.

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In this episode of The Restricted Handling Podcast, Glenn Corn and Ryan Fugit sit down with Roman Steblivskyi, Senior Director for Policy and Advocacy at the Economic Security Council of Ukraine, to break down what sanctions are actually doing to Russia's war machine.

Roman explains why sanctions can be symbolic, why some still work, and how Russian procurement networks use cutouts, shell companies, Turkey, China, Kyrgyzstan, Belarus, and other routes to keep military supply chains moving. The conversation also digs into oil and gas pressure, the debate over secondary sanctions, the limits of EU consensus, and what Washington, Brussels, and London should focus on next.

In this episode, we cover:

• Why sanctions are not enough unless enforcement follows • How Russia uses long, expensive supply chains to evade controls • CNC machines, dual-use goods, and why civilian technology matters on the battlefield • Belarus as a sanctions loophole and strategic problem • The Lindsey Graham sanctions package and secondary pressure on Russian oil buyers • Why EU sanctions policy is constrained by member-state politics • Whether sanctions should ever be lifted as part of negotiations • Shadow fleet enforcement, strategic minerals, and next steps for the sanctions coalition

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 Glenn introduces Roman Steblivskyi and the sanctions focus • 02:25 What the Economic Security Council of Ukraine does • 04:25 Symbolic sanctions versus sanctions that change Russian behavior • 06:37 Sanctions evasion and the real cost of longer supply chains • 08:18 How evasion can double Russia's procurement costs • 12:18 Which countries Russia uses to evade sanctions • 13:49 What CNC machines are and why Russia needs them • 15:43 Belarus, sanctions relief, and Russia's war logistics • 20:18 Lindsey Graham's sanctions package and Russian oil buyers • 23:00 Why enforcement matters more than announcement • 28:28 The EU problem, Hungary, Slovakia, and divided sanctions policy • 31:56 How weak is the Russian economy really? • 33:48 Should sanctions be lifted if Russia negotiates seriously? • 37:39 Dual-use technology, drones, cyber tools, and future controls • 40:45 Why sanctions relief must depend on real Russian steps • 41:32 Shadow fleet enforcement and NATO maritime pressure • 42:21 Strategic minerals and Russia's military supply chain • 43:36 Compliance, end-user audits, and secondary sanctions • 45:45 Closing thoughts and a possible China follow-up

About Roman Steblivskyi

Roman Steblivskyi is the Senior Director for Policy and Advocacy at the Economic Security Council of Ukraine, an independent non-governmental organization focused on sanctions policy, Russian capital, supply chains, and economic tools to restrict Russia's military-industrial capacity.

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

Find more from Restricted Handling: https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

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👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast at https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ to get a daily intel brief on Russia, China, Iran, Economics/Sanctions, Espionage, and more

Glenn Corn sits down in Kyiv with Artist, a Ukrainian officer in an air defense unit in Ukraine's Third Corps, after another major Russian air attack across Ukraine. The conversation moves from the human cost of Russia's strikes to the tactical reality of defending the front against drones, glide bombs, missiles, and rapidly evolving Russian tactics.

Artist was born in Odessa in 1991 and was working as an artist, sculptor, and designer before volunteering in 2014. He explains how Ukraine's war forced a generation to trade normal lives for defense of the country, why Russia's attacks have hardened Ukrainian society rather than broken it, and what Western militaries should learn from Ukraine's front-line innovation cycle.

In this episode, we cover:

• Russia's latest mass air attacks on Ukraine and the cost to civilians • Artist's path from Odessa artist and designer to Ukrainian officer • Why the Third Corps and Azov became his chosen unit • Russian drone tactics, fiber-optic UAVs, and the expanding depth of the front • How Ukrainian air defense pushes Russian aviation back from the line • Why Ukraine's innovation comes from the front line first • What NATO and U.S. air defense officers should learn from Ukraine • Why modern war is dirty, fast, adaptive, and often without rules • Odessa, Maidan, Ukrainian resilience, and the fight for freedom • China's view of Russia and why Beijing may be willing to watch Russia exhaust itself • Iran, Russia, Ukraine, and the emerging security architecture • Why Ukraine matters as a future U.S. partner

This is a direct look at the war through the eyes of someone living the operational reality every day: adaptation, mobility, resilience, and the price of freedom.

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 Glenn opens from Kyiv after major Russian attacks • 01:54 Artist's background before the war • 02:47 Odessa, art, design, and giving up a peaceful life • 04:26 Artist's time working in China • 05:34 China, Russia, and long-term strategic thinking • 06:59 Why Artist joined Azov and followed Andriy Biletsky • 08:27 The Third Corps and Artist's air defense role • 09:21 Assessing Russian drone capabilities • 11:14 Integrated tactical air defense on the front • 12:23 How front-line dynamics differ across Ukraine • 13:17 Fiber-optic UAVs and the problem of countermeasures • 14:22 Glide bombs, Gripens, and pushing Russian aircraft back • 15:47 Ukrainian strikes on Crimea logistics • 16:32 Iran, oil prices, and Russia's economic advantage • 17:55 What NATO air defense officers should learn • 18:35 Ukraine's bottom-up military innovation cycle • 21:09 Why Western militaries must prepare for dirty war • 22:51 Odessa, Russian-speaking Ukrainians, and resilience • 25:22 Maidan, independence, and rejecting Russia's model • 28:15 What Artist thinks about U.S. support for Ukraine • 32:55 Russia, Iran, and why Ukraine matters to Americans • 33:40 Artist's favorite musicians and Ukrainian bands • 34:45 Artist asks why Russia started the war • 38:25 Artist's view of the collapsing global security system • 40:21 Glenn on Ukraine as a critical U.S. partner • 43:07 Closing from Kyiv

About Artist

Artist is the callsign of a Ukrainian officer serving in an air defense unit in Ukraine's Third Corps. Born in Odessa in 1991, he studied art and design, worked as a sculptor and interior designer, and volunteered for military service in 2014. In this episode, he discusses his service, his experience with Azov and the Third Corps, and the realities of tactical air defense in Ukraine's war against Russia.

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

Restricted Handling https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast at https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ to get a daily intel brief on Russia, China, Iran, Economics/Sanctions, Espionage, and more

Ryan Fugit talks with Glenn Corn as Glenn calls in from Warsaw after a week in Ukraine, including stops tied to the Black Sea Security Conference in Odessa and a security conference in Kyiv. Glenn describes the human cost of Russia's continued strikes, Ukraine's expanding drone campaign, the pressure building around Putin, and why Kyiv believes it has to build more of its own air defense solutions.

The conversation also moves beyond Ukraine into the wider conflict space: Russian influence operations, pressure on Armenia and Belarus, Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, FPV drones, NATO air defense gaps, Lebanon, Gulf economic strain, and Cuba's deepening crisis.

In this episode, we cover:

• Glenn's readout from Kyiv, Odessa, and Warsaw after his latest Ukraine trip • Russia's ongoing drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian cities • Ukraine's growing FPV drone impact on Russian logistics • Why Ukraine still needs interceptors, but is building its own systems • Putin's pressure points after the Saint Petersburg economic forum • Russian disinformation and the American influencer information war • Why Glenn says the U.S. should double down on pressure against Russia • European concerns about U.S. reliability and NATO deterrence • Armenia, Belarus, Syria, and Russia's pressure around the periphery • Iran, oil prices, Ukraine's counter drone expertise, and Middle East lessons • Hezbollah's FPV drone use and the threat to Israel • Why Glenn warns U.S. critical infrastructure is no longer protected by geography • Lebanon, Hezbollah's arms, and the risk of letting Iranian proxies reconstitute • Why Ukraine remains inspiring, but cannot be pushed out of focus

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 Glenn calls in from Warsaw after leaving Ukraine • 00:15 Odessa, Kyiv, Russian strikes, and the death of a two year old • 01:11 What Ukraine feels like on the ground right now • 01:31 Ukraine's FPV drone strikes against Russian logistics • 02:24 Air defense shortages, interceptors, and Russian missile attacks • 03:17 Ukraine's own air defense systems and the KAB threat • 04:46 Laura Loomer, Candace Owens, Tucker Carlson, and Russian disinformation • 05:19 Russian hardliners pushing back on Putin • 06:19 Is Putin under pressure or running a disinformation play? • 07:10 What Glenn would tell the administration now • 08:49 European doubts about U.S. reliability and NATO deterrence • 09:48 Ukraine's EU path, Armenia, and pressure on Russia's periphery • 10:25 Syria, Armenia, Belarus, and the northern border threat • 11:20 Iran, oil prices, and Ukraine's view from the security summits • 11:52 Ukraine's counter drone lessons for the U.S. and NATO • 12:55 Ryan's reaction to FPV drone footage from Ukraine • 13:54 Hezbollah, Iran, Russia, and drone warfare spreading • 15:22 Lebanon, nuclear talks, and Hezbollah as a bargaining chip • 17:35 Ukraine, Dubai, Gulf strain, and Cuba's blackouts

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

Restricted Handling: https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

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Ryan Fugit is joined by Professor Lyle Goldstein, Director of Brown University's China Initiative, longtime scholar of Chinese and Russian military strategy, former U.S. Naval War College professor, and founding director of the China Maritime Studies Institute.

They break down the recent Trump-Xi summit, Xi's engagement with Putin, the China-Russia strategic relationship, Taiwan's role in U.S.-China tensions, and what a real Taiwan contingency could look like.

In this episode, we cover:

• Why great-power summits still matter • How China views Taiwan as the core flashpoint • Whether China is preparing for a 2026 or 2027 Taiwan move • What PLA purges may really signal • Why an invasion may start with firepower, helicopters, drones, and special forces • How blockade scenarios compare to full invasion • Why prediction markets are pricing Taiwan risk • Why Lyle rejects the "peak China" argument • What the U.S. administration should understand about China, Japan, the Philippines, and Taiwan

This episode matters because Taiwan is where U.S. deterrence, Chinese nationalism, military geography, semiconductor anxiety, alliance commitments, and escalation risk all collide.

About Lyle Goldstein

Professor Lyle Goldstein is Director of Brown University's China Initiative, a longtime scholar of Chinese and Russian military strategy, a former professor at the U.S. Naval War College, and the founding director of the China Maritime Studies Institute. In the episode, he also notes his work at Defense Priorities, a Washington think tank focused on realism and restraint.

Restricted Handling https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

Lyle Goldstein books and resources

Target Taiwan: Challenges for a U.S. intervention https://www.defensepriorities.org/explainers/target-taiwan-challenges-for-a-us-intervention/

The New Cold War at Sea: Maritime Implications of the China-Russia Quasi-Alliance https://www.usni.org/press/books/new-cold-war-sea

Meeting China Halfway: How to Defuse the Emerging US-China Rivalry https://press.georgetown.edu/Book/Meeting-China-Halfway

Preventive Attack and Weapons of Mass Destruction: A Comparative Historical Analysis https://www.sup.org/books/politics/preventive-attack-and-weapons-mass-destruction

Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-studies/5/

China, the United States and 21st Century Sea Power: Defining a Maritime Security Partnership https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-studies/4/

China Goes to Sea: Maritime Transformation in Comparative Historical Perspective https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-studies/3/

China's Energy Strategy: The Impact on Beijing's Maritime Policies https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-studies/2/

China's Future Nuclear Submarine Force https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-studies/1/

China's Nuclear Force Modernization https://paperzz.com/doc/7936415/china-s-nuclear-force-modernization

Five Dragons Stirring Up the Sea https://openlibrary.org/works/OL15889049W/Five_dragons_stirring_up_the_sea

Not Congruent but Quite Complementary: U.S. and Chinese Approaches to Nontraditional Security https://www.andrewerickson.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/China-Maritime-Study-9_US-China-NTS-Perspectives_Goldstein_201207.pdf

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 Ryan introduces Lyle Goldstein and the China-Taiwan focus • 01:46 Defense Priorities Taiwan series and the Trump-Xi summit setup • 02:26 Why great-power summits matter and who gained leverage • 05:11 How China-Russia ties shape the summit backdrop • 06:00 Taiwan at the center of U.S.-China relations • 11:34 Taiwan, chips, AI, and invasion timelines • 12:49 China's preparations and the 2026 or 2027 question • 15:01 PLA purges and what they may signal about Xi's control • 19:54 Breaking down the military dimensions of a Taiwan invasion • 20:30 Blockades, gray-zone coercion, and U.S. intervention risk • 22:40 Would China target civilian infrastructure? • 23:23 Helicopters, special operations forces, and the first day of war • 25:35 Airborne insertions, casualties, and drone resupply • 28:30 Why an invasion may not look like U.S. amphibious doctrine • 33:06 Would Taiwan become an insurgency? • 38:22 Prediction markets and the odds of invasion or blockade • 41:28 What Lyle would tell the U.S. administration about China • 46:53 Closing thoughts and where to find Lyle's work

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Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn break down the latest in U.S.-China talks, China's pressure over Taiwan, Ukraine's battlefield innovation, Iran's maximalist negotiating posture, and Chinese influence operations inside the United States.

In this episode, we cover:

• Trump and Xi in Beijing, Taiwan, and the risk of miscalculation • China's position on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and weapons support • Ukraine's battlefield gains, AI-enabled air defense, and anti-corruption pressure • Iran's nuclear demands, sanctions relief, and Gulf security • Chinese influence operations at the municipal level in the U.S. • The role former intelligence officers could play as ambassadors • Mexico, cartels, Russian presence, and the southern border • What Ryan and Glenn are reading right now • AJ Pasciuiti's new book Darkhorse and the sniper story behind it

This episode matters because the same strategic contest is showing up everywhere: great-power diplomacy, battlefield adaptation, maritime chokepoints, local influence operations, and the fight to keep open societies from being exploited.

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 Ryan introduces Restricted Handling and Glenn's background • 01:23 Glenn's Breitling hat, family memories, and lucky charms • 04:41 Ryan's lost Omega story from North Africa • 05:34 Trump and Xi in Beijing, Taiwan, and handshake betting markets • 08:02 Glenn on Taiwan, risk, and Putin's Beijing signal • 09:18 China, Iran, Hormuz, and weapons support claims • 12:20 Ambassador Satterfield and running a country team • 14:19 Ukraine ceasefire claims and Zelensky's humor • 16:41 Ukraine's net battlefield gains and innovation • 17:56 Palantir, AI models, drones, and Ukrainian adaptation • 19:48 NATO, EU accession, and Ukraine's desired U.S. relationship • 21:26 Yermak, corruption, transparency, and Russian talking points • 23:34 Iran's negotiating demands and Trump's rejection • 24:58 Hormuz, naval coalitions, and Gulf partners • 26:49 Chinese influence operations in Arcadia and Manhattan • 29:43 Glenn on public service, ambassadors, and former CIA officers • 32:17 Mexico, cartels, CIA reporting, and Russian presence • 35:21 What Ryan and Glenn are reading • 36:49 AJ Pasciuiti's Darkhorse and the sniper story behind the book

About AJ Pasciuiti

AJ Pasciuiti is a 21-year Marine, Force Recon Scout Sniper, Marine officer, author, speaker, and host of Combat Story. His book Darkhorse: Harnessing Hidden Potential in War and Life is available May 19, 2026.

Order Darkhorse on Amazon https://www.amazon.com/Darkhorse-Harnessing-Hidden-Potential-Life/dp/1400254973

Learn more about AJ and Darkhorse https://www.ajpasciuti.com/

Darkhorse book page https://www.ajpasciuti.com/book

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

Restricted Handling https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

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👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast at https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ to get a daily intel brief on Russia, China, Iran, Economics/Sanctions, Espionage, and more

Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn are joined by Ambassador David Satterfield, director of Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy and a former U.S. ambassador to Turkey and Lebanon, for a wide-ranging conversation on the Middle East, Iran, China, Russia, Ukraine, Syria, diplomacy, and the machinery of U.S. foreign policy.

Satterfield argues that classic military power is struggling against asymmetric actors like Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, and that kinetic force alone cannot deliver strategic outcomes without political frameworks, patience, and a functioning national security process.

In this episode, we cover:

• Why Iran's Strait of Hormuz threat has become a global economic weapon • Why Satterfield now believes leaving the JCPOA was a mistake • The limits of military power against Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran • How the collapse of State Department and NSC capacity affects crisis management • Why Syria policy required bold decisions, but also needs a team to sustain gains • Why China is the most formidable U.S. adversary • How Saudi Arabia, the UAE, energy, critical minerals, and China fit together • Why Satterfield would advise against rushing into a Beijing summit • Putin's Victory Day ceasefire, Ukraine's position, and Russia's gains from the Hormuz crisis • What Yitzhak Rabin and James Baker taught Satterfield about leadership, principle, and diplomacy

This is a masterclass in strategic patience, national security process, and the danger of confusing tactical strikes with strategy.

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 Ambassador David Satterfield joins Ryan and Glenn • 02:04 How chaotic is the Middle East right now? • 03:03 UAE, Saudi Arabia, OPEC, and regional change • 05:36 Why asymmetric actors frustrate classic military power • 08:30 Gaza, Hezbollah, and the missing political framework • 11:18 Why leaving the JCPOA was a mistake • 13:49 Trump, Israel, and the decision to confront Iran • 17:08 Iran turns the Strait of Hormuz into a global weapon • 20:00 Why strikes have not eliminated Iran's missile and drone capacity • 24:10 Why tweets cannot manage strategic adversaries • 25:35 Why State and the NSC cannot function without teams • 26:35 Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, and Tom Barrack's role • 32:15 Bold policy needs sustainment • 36:55 Tom Barrack, Lebanon, Syria, and speaking bluntly • 39:26 How Satterfield would advise Trump before a China trip • 41:11 China's technical, industrial, and espionage challenge • 44:08 Saudi Arabia, China, and the real logic behind the U.S.-Saudi deal • 48:30 Why Satterfield would tell Trump not to go to Beijing yet • 51:25 Putin's Victory Day ceasefire and Ukraine • 55:55 Russia benefits from the Strait of Hormuz crisis • 59:10 Should Ukraine strike during the Victory Day parade? • 1:03:09 The real issue: how to conduct national security policy • 1:04:44 Rabin, Baker, and the most interesting figures Satterfield worked with • 1:08:33 Satterfield's work at Rice University's Baker Institute

About David Satterfield

Ambassador David M. Satterfield is the director of Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy and leads its Edward P. Djerejian Center for the Middle East. He has more than four decades of diplomatic and leadership experience, including service as U.S. ambassador to Turkey and Lebanon, assistant secretary of state, National Security Council staff director, special envoy for the Horn of Africa, and chargé d'affaires in Iraq and Egypt.

Baker Institute profile https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/david-m-satterfield

Rice University profile https://profiles.rice.edu/staff/david-satterfield

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

Restricted Handling https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

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👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast at https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ to get a daily intel brief on Russia, China, Iran, Economics/Sanctions, Espionage, and more

Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn are back for a no-guest episode covering Ukraine, Russia, Iran, espionage, drones, Cuba, China, and the geopolitical pressure points that are moving fast right now.

Glenn opens with his recent trip to Ukraine, where he escorted an American business delegation and spoke at the Kiev Security Forum alongside senior intelligence and national security figures. From there, Ryan and Glenn dig into how Moscow negotiates, why Putin's ceasefire offer around May 9 should be treated skeptically, and why Glenn believes the United States and Europe still have more leverage over Russia than many people think.

In this episode, we cover:

• Glenn's latest trip to Ukraine with American investors and business leaders • Why Glenn sees Russia and Iran as linked strategic threats • How Russian negotiators use maximalist demands, theater, and psychological pressure • Julie Davis, US diplomatic coverage in Ukraine, and why Kyiv needs a full-time ambassador • Putin's May 9 Victory Day messaging and the history Russia leaves out • Russian and Iranian low-level espionage in Europe • The UAE, OPEC, and the Strait of Hormuz crisis • Why Glenn argues for an international naval force to reopen the straits • Iran's nuclear negotiations, political pressure, and the lessons of Ukrainian counter-drone warfare • Cuba sanctions, Venezuela, Nicaragua, China, and authoritarian pressure in the Western Hemisphere • China's drone swarm threat and America's procurement problem

This episode matters because Glenn frames these crises as part of a broader strategic contest, not isolated news cycles. Russia, Iran, China, North Korea, Cuba, and Venezuela are applying pressure across multiple fronts, and the United States and its allies are still deciding how hard, how fast, and how coherently they are willing to respond.

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 Ryan opens the episode with Glenn back stateside • 01:01 Glenn's Ukraine trip with an American business delegation • 03:27 Kiev Security Forum and the Russia-Iran connection • 08:24 How Russian negotiators use maximalist demands • 12:15 Sanctions, Kirill Dmitriev, and pressure on Putin • 16:06 Julie Davis and why Ukraine needs a full-time US ambassador • 19:42 Territorial concessions and why Glenn says Russia is not holding the cards • 22:23 Victory Day, Soviet history, and Operation Snow • 26:59 Why Putin's May 9 ceasefire offer benefits Moscow • 28:30 Russian and Iranian espionage cases in Europe • 33:37 UAE, OPEC, and the Strait of Hormuz shock • 36:06 The case for an international naval force • 39:21 Iran's nuclear bluff and missed drone lessons • 43:03 Cuba sanctions and pressure in the Western Hemisphere • 45:50 China, AI, drone swarms, and US procurement gaps • 49:23 Upcoming guests and how to reach Glenn • 51:21 Wrap

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

Restricted Handling: https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast at https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ to get a daily intel brief on Russia, China, Iran, Economics/Sanctions, Espionage, and more

In this episode, Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn are joined by Zhan, a deputy commander in Ukraine's Third Army Corps, responsible for air defense operations on one of the most complex battlefields in the world.

Zhan went from serving in the merchant navy to defending Ukraine on the front lines and is now at the center of one of the most important evolutions in modern warfare.

This is not theory. This is real-time adaptation under fire.

In this episode, we cover:

• What the battlefield in Ukraine actually looks like today • How drones have completely changed warfare • The three-layer air defense system Ukraine built in real time • Why logistics and medevac are now some of the biggest challenges • How soldiers survive in underground positions for weeks or months • The shift from "golden hour" to "golden months" in battlefield medicine • Why FPV drones are now the most dangerous threat • How Ukraine is training civilians and veterans to fight with drones • The connection between the war in Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East • What Ukraine needs most right now from Western allies

Zhan explains how Ukrainian forces are adapting faster than any military in modern history and why this war is shaping the future of global conflict.

He also shares a deeply personal perspective on what it means to fight for your country and what comes after the war.

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 Intro and Glenn's Ukraine trip • 05:13 How the war in Iran is affecting Ukraine • 12:04 Zhan joins from Kyiv • 13:07 Zhan's background and role in air defense • 18:39 Drone warfare and naval adaptation • 22:29 How fast soldiers can be trained on drones • 26:26 Layered air defense explained • 31:27 Logistics and medevac challenges • 36:35 Evolution from Bakhmut to today • 44:18 Comparing early war vs current battlefield • 53:27 Integration of UAVs and command systems • 58:27 Ukraine's view of the global war • 01:00:38 Zhan on the future of Ukraine

About Zhan

Zhan is a deputy commander in Ukraine's Third Army Corps specializing in air defense operations. He previously served in the merchant navy and joined the military at the start of the full-scale invasion.

He has participated in major battles including Bakhmut and Avdiivka and is now leading efforts to build modern counter-UAV and air defense systems in Ukraine.

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

Restricted Handling

Subscribe and receive the daily intelligence brief https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

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👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast at https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ to get a daily intel brief on Russia, China, Iran, Economics/Sanctions, Espionage, and more

In this episode, Glenn Corn is joined by Dr. Monika Palotai, one of the leading experts on Central and Eastern Europe, to break down a historic election in Hungary.

With record voter turnout and global attention, this election is about far more than domestic politics.

It sits at the intersection of Russia, Ukraine, NATO, migration policy, and the future of Europe.

In this episode, we cover:

• Why Hungary's election is drawing global attention • The significance of record breaking voter turnout • The real divide between Fidesz and the Tisza Party • Why both parties may be closer on policy than expected • Hungary's stance on Ukraine and why it matters • The role of migration and cultural identity in the election • How U.S. involvement is perceived inside Hungary • Why European leaders misread U.S. politics • The tension between national sovereignty and EU authority • What the outcome could mean for NATO and transatlantic relations

Dr. Palotai explains why the election is ultimately about sovereignty, identity, and economic survival, not just ideology.

She also provides insight into how Hungarian voters are thinking about Ukraine, energy security, and their place within Europe.

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 Introduction and Monika Palotai background • 03:13 Record voter turnout and election atmosphere • 05:38 What is driving voter participation • 10:01 U.S. influence and JD Vance visit • 11:34 Fidesz vs Tisza explained • 16:00 Hungary's position on Ukraine • 20:01 Migration and cultural identity • 22:45 EU relations and sovereignty tensions • 24:38 Key issues for Hungarian voters • 30:01 Hungary Ukraine minority tensions • 33:44 NATO and U.S. relations • 36:13 Future EU dynamics depending on outcome • 40:18 Hungarian perspective on Iran war • 43:03 Cultural identity and national priorities • 46:18 Final thoughts on election significance

About Dr. Mónika Palotai

Dr. Monika Palotai is a senior research fellow at the Religious Freedom Institute and a non resident expert at the Warsaw Institute.

Her work focuses on geopolitics, EU law, energy security, and the relationships between Russia, China, and Iran. She has written extensively for Newsweek, The National Interest, RealClearDefense, and other major outlets.

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

Restricted Handling

Subscribe and receive the daily intelligence brief https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

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👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast at https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ to get a daily intel brief on Russia, China, Iran, Economics/Sanctions, Espionage, and more

In this episode, Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn sit down with Moisés "Mo" Julião, retired CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and former Chief of Station, to break down what is really happening in Cuba right now.

From collapsing infrastructure to rising unrest, Cuba may be entering a phase that could reshape the Western Hemisphere.

In this episode, we cover:

• Why recent armed incursions into Cuba are not as unusual as they seem • The historical context shaping Cuban behavior today • How the Cuban regime maintains control through isolation • The real economic crisis unfolding on the island • The impact of fuel shortages, blackouts, and food supply breakdowns • Why remittances from the United States are keeping the system alive • The role of Russia and recent oil shipments into Cuba • The potential for regime transition and what comes next • Why humanitarian collapse is a real risk • How Cuban intelligence historically outperformed expectations

Mo explains why Cuba operates in a "time capsule" shaped by the 1959 revolution and Cold War dynamics, and why that mindset still drives decisions today.

He also provides a sobering look at how quickly conditions could deteriorate into a full humanitarian crisis.

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 Introduction and Mo Julião background • 03:22 Armed incursions and historical context • 06:08 U.S. presence and embassy realities • 07:00 Daily life inside Cuba and information control • 10:50 Remittances and economic survival • 12:49 Signs of instability and protests • 16:00 Regime survival and backchannel discussions • 18:20 Cuban perception of the United States • 20:14 The Russia tanker decision and strategic signaling • 21:06 Power dynamics inside the Castro system • 23:04 Cuban intelligence and espionage success • 28:04 Infrastructure collapse and economic fragility • 32:31 Risk of humanitarian crisis • 36:35 Policy options and missed opportunities • 45:00 Cultural insight and the "next revolution"

About Moisés "Mo" Julião

Moisés "Mo" Julião is the founder and CEO of Alenttay Solutions and a retired CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer.

He served over two decades in the CIA's Directorate of Operations, including as Chief of Station and in multiple conflict zones. He also served as a Lieutenant Colonel in the U.S. Army and worked closely with special operations forces.

Alenttay Solutions https://alenttay.com/

LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/moises-e-juliao-esq-2b97b5250

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

Restricted Handling

Subscribe and receive the daily intelligence brief https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

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👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast at https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ to get a daily intel brief on Russia, China, Iran, Economics/Sanctions, Espionage, and more

In this episode, Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn sit down with Ambassador Matthew Bryza, one of the leading experts on energy geopolitics in Eurasia.

Ambassador Bryza served as: • U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan• Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs• Director at the National Security Council

He now works as a Managing Director at Straife Istanbul and advises on global energy and geopolitical risk.

This conversation breaks down one of the most important but overlooked drivers of global conflict: Energy.

In this episode, we cover:

• Why the Strait of Hormuz is the center of global economic risk• How energy prices are shaping decisions in Iran, Russia, and Europe• Why Russia is benefiting financially from the Iran war• How natural gas and fertilizer shortages could trigger global instability• The long-term impact of shutting down oil and LNG production• Why infrastructure like pipelines takes decades to build but minutes to disrupt• The strategic importance of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline• Why Europe cannot quickly replace Russian or Gulf energy• The political implications of energy dependency in NATO and the EU• Why energy security is national security

Ambassador Bryza explains why the current conflict could reshape global energy markets for years and why even a short disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has cascading effects across food supply, manufacturing, aviation, and global trade.

He also details why Russia's war effort may be strengthened in the short term due to rising energy prices.

Timeline / chapters• 00:00 Intro• 02:34 Why energy is driving global conflict• 05:49 Key energy indicators to watch• 14:22 Why the world cannot replace Gulf energy• 19:39 Energy alliances and regional geopolitics• 22:25 The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline explained• 29:36 Why energy infrastructure shapes independence• 31:49 Future energy strategy for the US and allies• 34:33 Turkey, Azerbaijan, and regional responses• 41:38 Russia, Ukraine, and the Druzhba pipeline• 44:33 Final thoughts on energy and geopolitics

About Ambassador Matthew Bryza

Matthew Bryza is a former U.S. diplomat who served 23 years in the Foreign Service, including as U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan, and held senior roles at the State Department and National Security Council focused on Eurasian energy, regional conflicts, and U.S. policy toward Turkey, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. He played a central role in advancing major Caspian energy projects, including the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline, making him one of the leading U.S. experts on global energy security and geopolitics. Today, he is based in Istanbul, where he serves as Managing Director of Straife Istanbul, advising companies on sanctions compliance, geopolitical risk, and market expansion across Türkiye and the Greater Caspian region; he is also Regional Managing Partner at Ballard Partners, and a longtime Board Member of The Jamestown Foundation.

LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-bryza-050180156/

Straife Group

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

Restricted Handling

Subscribe and receive the daily intelligence brief https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

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👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast at https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ to get a daily intel brief on Russia, China, Iran, Economics/Sanctions, Espionage, and more

In this episode, Ryan Fugit sits down with Sean Wiswesser, retired CIA Senior Operations Officer and former Chief of Station, to break down Russian intelligence tradecraft, espionage, and the future of conflict.

Sean brings nearly 30 years of experience in national security, with a career focused on Russian intelligence, counterintelligence, and denied area operations.

His new book, Tradecraft Tactics and Dirty Tricks: Russian Intelligence and Putin's Secret War, pulls back the curtain on how Russian intelligence really operates.

In this conversation, we cover:

• What "denied areas" really mean and why they matter• Why Russian intelligence is both highly capable and deeply corrupt• The truth about Russian illegals and long-term espionage networks• How Russia prepares for war through intelligence operations• Why Russia has no true allies, including Iran and China• The role of propaganda and internal repression in maintaining power• Why Russia miscalculated Ukraine and how it adapted• What a post-war Ukraine looks like from an intelligence perspective• Why the Baltics are likely Russia's next focus• The importance of human intelligence in predicting global events

Sean explains why Russian intelligence culture has remained consistent for over a century and why understanding that history is critical to predicting future behavior.

He also lays out why the war in Ukraine is not just a regional conflict, but a defining test of democratic resolve.

Timeline / Chapters

• 00:00 Intro• 03:00 What are denied areas• 07:30 CIA tradecraft and Burton Gerber legacy• 12:00 Russia, Iran, and transactional alliances• 17:00 Russian intelligence failures in Ukraine• 22:00 Illegals and deep cover espionage• 27:00 Why Russia fears its own people• 32:00 Ukraine war and Western strategy• 36:00 Russia's next war and NATO risks• 40:00 Navalny and internal repression• 44:00 What comes next for Russia

About Sean Wiswesser

Sean Wiswesser is a retired CIA Senior Operations Officer and former Chief of Station with nearly three decades of experience in intelligence and national security.

His work focused heavily on Russian intelligence operations, counterintelligence, and denied area operations.

His upcoming book:

Tradecraft Tactics and Dirty Tricks: Russian Intelligence and Putin's Secret War is available April 21, 2026

at Amazon val Institute Press

• LinkedIn
• X (Twitter) @Wiswesser

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

Restricted Handling

Subscribe and receive the daily intelligence brief https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

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👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

Get the daily intelligence brief covering Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, the Middle East, sanctions, intelligence operations, and geopolitical competition.

In this episode of the Restricted Handling Podcast, Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn sit down with Paula Doyle, retired CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and former Associate Deputy Director of Operations.

Paula spent more than two decades in the intelligence community running global human intelligence operations and later serving as Deputy National Counterintelligence Executive.

She now teaches intelligence and national security at Georgetown University and writes for The Cipher Brief.

This conversation goes deep into the Iran war, Russia's role, and the strategic mistakes the United States made over decades of dealing with Tehran.

🎙️ In this episode we discuss:

• Why the U.S.–Iran conflict actually began decades ago • How "proxy warfare" allowed Iran to wage war without consequences • The role of Hezbollah and Iranian militias in killing U.S. troops • Why sanctions and diplomacy failed to change Iran's behavior • What the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader actually means • The internal fractures inside the IRGC • Why arming Kurdish groups could be a dangerous mistake • The future of Iran without the theocracy • Whether a new Iranian leader could emerge from inside the system • The strategic implications for Russia and China

Paula explains why the United States spent decades using "sophistry" — softening the truth about what Iran was doing — instead of confronting the reality that we were already at war.

She also describes the real internal dynamics inside Iran's security services and why the next phase of this conflict could depend on defections and fractures inside the regime.

⏱ TIMELINE / CHAPTERS

00:00 Introducing Paula Doyle 03:00 Why the U.S.–Iran war really began decades ago 08:00 The birth of "proxy warfare" 12:00 How Iran killed hundreds of U.S. troops in Iraq 17:00 Why diplomacy and sanctions failed 22:00 Mojtaba Khamenei and Iran's leadership succession 27:00 The dangers of arming Kurdish groups 31:00 Why Iran's regime could fracture internally 35:00 Russia, China, and the wider geopolitical stakes 40:00 What gives hope for Iran's future

ABOUT PAULA DOYLE

Paula Doyle is a retired Senior Intelligence Service officer at the CIA who spent more than two decades leading global intelligence operations.

She served as: • Associate Deputy Director of Operations• Deputy National Counterintelligence Executive• Multiple-time Chief of Station

She now teaches intelligence and national security at Georgetown University and writes for The Cipher Brief.

HOW TO FIND GLENN CORN

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and Chief of Station.

Institute of World Politics https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/

Great South Bay Consulting https://greatsouthbayinc.com/

RESTRICTED HANDLING

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In this episode of the Restricted Handling Podcast, Glenn Corn sits down with Ambassador David Hale, former U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon, Pakistan, and Jordan and former Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs.

Ambassador Hale previously warned — months before these events — that the core strategic problem in the Middle East was Iran itself, not just its proxies.

Now, after U.S. and Israeli strikes that decapitated major parts of Iran's leadership, we revisit that argument and ask:

What happens now?

🎙️ In this episode, we cover:

• Why the U.S.–Iran conflict really goes back to 1979 • Why previous presidents failed to change Iran's behavior • Why Iran ultimately only responds to force • Whether the Iranian regime can survive leadership decapitation • The real strategic importance of Hezbollah and Lebanon • Why Arab Gulf states may actually move closer to the U.S. after these strikes • What China and Russia are learning from the war • Why Iran's retaliation strategy may backfire • The energy market implications and Strait of Hormuz risks • Why the U.S. must stay engaged even after the fighting ends

Ambassador Hale explains why the Iranian leadership's attacks on Gulf states may actually strengthen regional alignment against Tehran — and why Iran's military position may be weaker than many assume.

He also warns that regime collapse is not necessarily the goal, and that the real objective should be preventing Iran from intimidating the region.

⏱ TIMELINE / CHAPTERS

00:00 Glenn Introduces Ambassador Hale 02:00 "The Heart of the Problem Was Iran" 06:30 Why Iran Only Responds to Force 10:00 Why Iran Is Striking Gulf States 16:00 Oil Markets & Strait of Hormuz 21:00 Could Iran Negotiate Now? 25:00 What Happens Inside the IRGC 29:00 Lebanon, Hezbollah & Political Shift 36:00 Russia and China Watching Closely 42:00 Lessons From 40 Years of Iran Policy 48:00 The Risks of Regime Collapse

ABOUT AMBASSADOR DAVID HALE

Ambassador David Hale is one of the most experienced U.S. diplomats of the modern era.

He served as: • U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon • U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan • U.S. Ambassador to Jordan • Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs (the #3 position at the State Department)

He is currently: • Distinguished Fellow at the Wilson Center • Professor at the Institute of World Politics

Wilson Center Profile https://www.wilsoncenter.org/person/david-hale

Institute of World Politics Profile https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/ambassador-david-hale/

HOW TO FIND GLENN CORN

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and Chief of Station.

Institute of World Politics – Faculty Profile https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/

Great South Bay Consulting https://greatsouthbayinc.com/

Subscribe and receive the daily intelligence brief https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

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This is ROUND 2 w/ Tony DeMario who spent 30+ years on Iran and regional proxies at CIA.

After the decapitation strikes. After Operation Epic Fury and Operation Lion's Roar. After U.S. and Israeli forces eliminated Iran's Supreme Leader and dozens of senior IRGC officials.

Tony DeMario returns to break down what comes next.

Tony is a former senior CIA officer with 34 years in the Army and Agency, specializing in Iran, counterterrorism, and Iranian regional proxies. He currently serves as Executive Vice President at Strider Technologies, a strategic intelligence firm focused on geopolitical risk and nation-state competition.

This episode goes beyond headlines.

We discuss the collapse of Iran's leadership structure, succession risks, proxy retaliation, Russia's angle, China's oil calculus, and whether regime change is even realistic.

🎙️ In this episode, we cover:

• The strategic impact of killing Iran's Supreme Leader • Why this is historically unprecedented • Whether Iran's security apparatus can reconstitute • Hezbollah and proxy retaliation risks • The role of Russia in prolonging instability • China's oil dependency on Iran • Succession scenarios inside Tehran • Whether Reza Pahlavi is viable (spoiler: unlikely) • Why "nation building" is not on the table • The risk of Libya- or Iraq-style fragmentation • What sustained U.S. strikes would look like • The danger of premature celebration

Tony explains why:

• Decapitation alone doesn't equal regime collapse• Infrastructure destruction matters more than leadership removal• Iran's bureaucracy is deeper than many realize• Russia benefits from U.S. distraction• This is the weakest Iran has been in decades — but that doesn't guarantee stability

Just clear-eyed analysis of a historic moment.

⏱ TIMELINE / CHAPTERS

• 00:00 Intro 03:00 The Decapitation Strategy 10:00 IRGC & MOIS Reconstitution 16:00 Hezbollah & Proxy Threat 22:00 Russia's Incentives 29:00 China & Oil Calculus 35:00 Succession & Assembly of Experts 41:00 Could Iran Fragment? 48:00 What Nation Building Would Require 55:00 Final Assessment

Tony DeMario is a former senior CIA officer with 34 years of service in the Army and Agency. He led teams focused on Iran, counterterrorism, and Iranian proxy networks across the Middle East.

He currently serves as Executive Vice President at Strider Technologies, a strategic intelligence firm specializing in geopolitical risk and state-backed economic threats.

Strider Technologies: https://www.striderintel.com/

Tony DeMario on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tony-demario/

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multiple-time Chief of Station.

Institute of World Politics – Faculty Profile https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/

Great South Bay Consulting https://greatsouthbayinc.com/

Subscribe and receive the daily intel brief: https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

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The predictions and assessments made here are eerily close to what unfolded overnight.

We will follow up with a post-strike assessment episode — but this conversation captures the strategic thinking immediately before the kinetic phase began.

In this episode of the Restricted Handling Podcast, Glenn Corn and Ryan Fugit are joined by Tony DeMario, former senior CIA officer with 34 years in the Army and Agency, specializing in Iran, counterterrorism, and Iranian regional proxies.

Tony led teams across some of the most sensitive Iran-related missions in recent history.

This is not academic analysis. This is pre-strike strategic insight from someone who has lived the problem set.

🎙️ In this episode, we discuss:

• Whether Iran's regime is weaker than at any time since 1979 • Why regional partners hesitate to openly support U.S. action • Hezbollah's residual capabilities • Whether strikes would be symbolic — or decapitation-level • Why the IRGC leadership structure matters • What would actually fracture regime cohesion • Russia's strategic interest in prolonging Middle East instability • Whether protests inside Iran change the calculus • Why negotiations may be delay tactics • What it would truly take to end the conflict

Tony explains why:

• Iran has "never won a war, but never lost a negotiation" • Decapitation without follow-through may not achieve deterrence • Russia benefits from distraction • Sanctions and economic pressure may matter more than strikes • The regime's internal corruption complicates every scenario

This episode captures the strategic debate just before events overtook analysis.

⏱ TIMELINE / CHAPTERS

00:00 Recorded One Hour Before U.S. Strikes 03:00 The Carrier Groups & Regional Tensions 08:00 Iran's Internal Power Struggle 14:00 Hezbollah & Proxy Capabilities 20:00 What a "Decapitation Strike" Means 27:00 Regional Allies & Overflight Politics 33:00 Russia's Strategic Angle 38:00 Negotiations: Real or Delay? 45:00 Could the Regime Collapse? 52:00 Final Assessments Before Kinetic Action

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multiple-time Chief of Station.

Institute of World Politics – Faculty Profile https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/

Great South Bay Consulting https://greatsouthbayinc.com/

Subscribe and receive the daily intelligence brief: https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

HOW TO FIND GLENN CORNRESTRICTED HANDLING

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Space is no longer science fiction. It's the next strategic battleground.

In this episode of the Restricted Handling Podcast, Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn sit down with Clayton Swope, Deputy Director of the Aerospace Security Project and Senior Fellow at CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies).

Clayton is one of Washington's leading experts on military space power, space deterrence, launch competition, and U.S.–China rivalry in orbit.

This conversation goes far beyond UFO headlines and into the real strategic questions:

• Are we prepared for conflict in space? • How vulnerable is GPS? • What happens if satellites start colliding during a crisis? • Can the U.S. outpace China in lunar competition? • What role does Space Force actually play?

🎙️ In this episode, we cover:

• Why GPS is America's biggest space vulnerability • The real state of U.S. vs. China space competition • Russia's declining relevance in space • Satellite congestion and collision risks • Space-based missile defense and Golden Dome • The strategic importance of the Moon • Rare earth resources and lunar mining risks • Commercial launch dominance (SpaceX, Blue Origin) • Why research & development funding matters more than ever • Whether Space Force is structured for the future

Clayton explains how launch, satellite communications, and navigation systems quietly underpin modern warfare — and what happens if those systems fail.

From reusable rockets to orbital jamming to lunar competition, this episode reframes space not as exploration — but as infrastructure and deterrence.

If you think space is distant, abstract, or futuristic — this conversation will change your mind.

⏱ TIMELINE / CHAPTERS

00:00 Introduction & Clayton's Background 04:30 Space as a Military Domain 10:00 Starlink, Ukraine & Space Warfare 18:00 GPS Vulnerabilities 23:00 Space Congestion & Collision Risks 30:00 U.S. vs China Launch Competition 37:00 The Moon & Strategic Resources 44:00 Space Force & Future Doctrine 52:00 Rapid Fire Questions

HOW TO FIND GLENN CORN

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multiple-time Chief of Station.

Institute of World Politics – Faculty Profile https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/

Great South Bay Consulting https://greatsouthbayinc.com/

ABOUT OUR GUEST – CLAYTON SWOPE

Clayton Swope is Deputy Director of the Aerospace Security Project and Senior Fellow for Defense & Security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

CSIS Profile: https://www.csis.org/people/clayton-swope

Follow CSIS Aerospace Security Project: https://www.csis.org/programs/aerospace-security-project

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On the ground in Kyiv. Power outages. Drones overhead. War in real time.

In this episode of the Restricted Handling Podcast, Glenn Corn records from Kyiv, Ukraine, joined by Phil, a senior commander in Ukraine's Third Corps and Chief Unmanned Systems Officer.

Phil is not a media personality. He is actively fighting this war.

They discuss:

• What modern warfare actually looks like in 2026

• How Russia has shifted from mechanized assaults to infiltration tactics

• Why drones have fundamentally changed the battlefield

• The reality behind Russian propaganda victories

• How energy infrastructure attacks are meant to terrorize civilians

• The psychological dimension of this war

• What Europe understands — and what it doesn't

• Whether negotiations are real or simply delay tactics

• Why this war is not just about territory

Phil explains that Ukraine is not negotiating land — because this is about survival, not square kilometers.

He also shares how Ukrainian resilience holds, even during blackouts and -20°C winter nights.

This is not theory. This is not analysis from afar. This is war described by someone living it.

🎙️ In this episode, we cover: • The evolution of Russian tactics on the front line • Why infiltration replaced armored assaults • Drone dominance and battlefield adaptation • The cost of Russia's missile campaign • Civilian energy infrastructure as a weapon • Russia's foreign fighters and manpower strategy • The illusion of territorial "gains" • The reality behind negotiations • What it would actually take to end the war

⏱️ TIMELINE / CHAPTERS

00:00 Glenn in Kyiv 02:00 Phil's Background (From IT CTO to Commander) 05:00 Davos & Europe's View of the War 10:00 Russia's Strategic Objective 15:00 Modern Battlefield Tactics 19:00 Drone Warfare & Infiltration 24:00 Russian Casualties & Foreign Fighters 29:00 Energy Infrastructure Attacks 33:00 Negotiations: Real or Delay Tactics? 38:00 What Would End the War? 43:00 The Human Dimension 47:00 Final Thoughts from Kyiv

HOW TO FIND GLENN CORN

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multiple-time Chief of Station.

Institute of World Politics – Faculty Profile https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/

Great South Bay Consulting https://greatsouthbayinc.com/

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Drones. Ukraine. China. Deterrence. The Future of War. This episode goes deep on where modern warfare is heading—and why the next 12–24 months matter more than most people realize.

In this episode of the Restricted Handling Podcast, Ryan Fugit (former Army & CIA officer) is joined by Mike Pako Benitez, former F-15E Weapon Systems Officer, Weapons School graduate, Distinguished Flying Cross recipient, defense technologist, and founder of The Merge—one of the fastest-growing military aviation and defense technology newsletters.

With Glenn Corn traveling in Eastern Europe, Ryan and Mike dive into the drone revolution, lessons from Ukraine, U.S. defense production realities, and why cost, scale, and speed now matter more than gold-plated performance.

Mike also shares insights from his current role as CEO of Purple Rhombus, a drone startup focused on affordable mass—building systems designed for real production, not PowerPoint warfare.

This conversation connects battlefield reality to defense acquisition, industrial base constraints, and deterrence against China and Russia, while tackling the big question everyone is asking:

Is manned aviation going away—or evolving?

🎙️ In this episode, we cover: • What ISIS drones (2014–2016) reveal about today's drone warfare • Why Ukraine's innovation cycle is measured in weeks, not years • Where the U.S. is falling behind on drones—and why • Cost, scale, and production as the new center of gravity • Why defense procurement is finally starting to change • China's supply-chain advantage and the rare-earth problem • Why affordable, expendable systems matter more than perfection • The future of manned aviation and man-machine teaming • What actually keeps defense leaders up at night

This episode is practical, unsanitized, and grounded in real experience—from cockpit decisions to factory floors.

If you want to understand how wars are actually fought now, and how the U.S. can still win the next one, this episode is essential.

⏱️ TIMELINE / CHAPTERS 00:00 Intro & Mike Benitez Background 02:20 What Is The Merge? 03:45 The Real Origins of Drone Warfare 06:30 Ukraine's Innovation Cycle 10:30 Where the U.S. Is Behind 14:30 Cost, Scale, and Production Reality 18:45 China, Supply Chains, and Rare Earths 22:00 The Future of Manned Aviation 26:00 Deterrence, Capacity, and Credibility 31:00 What Keeps Mike Up at Night 34:30 Purple Rhombus & Affordable Mass 37:30 Final Thoughts

HOW TO FIND MIKE PAKO BENITEZ

The Merge – Defense, Aviation, and National Security Newsletter https://themerge.co/

Purple Rhombus – Drone Systems & Affordable Mass https://www.purple-rhombus.com/

RESTRICTED HANDLING Subscribe, contact, and get the daily intel brief https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

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Serbia. The Balkans. NATO. Russia. History. Power. This episode is a masterclass in how unresolved history shapes modern geopolitics.

In this episode of the Restricted Handling Podcast, hosts Ryan Fugit (former Army & CIA officer) and Glenn Corn (34-year CIA veteran, multiple-time Chief of Station) are joined by Ambassador (ret.) Anthony Godfrey, former U.S. Ambassador to Serbia and a career diplomat with nearly 30 years in the State Department and 12 years in the U.S. Navy.

Ambassador Godfrey brings firsthand experience from Serbia, Russia, Chechnya, Belarus, Iraq, Turkey, Armenia, and beyond—offering rare insight into the Balkans, NATO cohesion, Russian influence, and why this region still matters for U.S. national security.

The conversation spans everything from Greenland and Arctic security to the fragile political balance in the Western Balkans, including Serbia's relationship with Russia, China, the EU, Bosnia, and Kosovo. Godfrey also shares extraordinary personal stories—from being declared persona non grata to navigating expeditionary diplomacy in some of the world's toughest environments.

Along the way, Ryan, Glenn, and Ambassador Godfrey break down: • Why the Balkans remain strategically volatile • Serbia's balancing act between the West and Moscow • Bosnia's unresolved political structure and rising risk • Kosovo as an enduring flashpoint • NATO's value—and the danger of undermining it • China's quiet economic leverage in the region • Why economic stability is the real key to long-term peace • Lessons from decades of frontline diplomacy

This episode combines hard geopolitical analysis, historical context, and unfiltered war stories—the kind of insight you only get from people who were actually there.

If you want to understand why the Balkans still matter, how Russia exploits fractures, and what the U.S. should be doing now, this episode is essential listening.

🎙️ In this episode, we cover: • Ambassador Godfrey's career across Eastern Europe and Eurasia • What it really means to be declared persona non grata • Greenland, Arctic security, and NATO cohesion • Serbia's political and economic trajectory • Bosnia and Herzegovina's fragile structure • Kosovo as a long-term security risk • Russian and Chinese influence in the Balkans • Why EU accession matters for U.S. security • Operation Halyard and forgotten U.S.–Serbian history • Why diplomacy still matters in unstable regions

⏱️ TIMELINE / CHAPTERS 00:00 Intro & Ambassador Godfrey's Background 04:30 Being Declared Persona Non Grata 10:15 Greenland, NATO, and the High North 15:00 Why the Balkans Still Matter 20:30 Bosnia's Fragile Political System 26:00 Serbia's Balancing Act: EU, Russia, China 32:30 Kosovo and Regional Stability 38:30 Operation Halyard & WWII History 45:30 Life as a Diplomat: War Stories 52:30 Final Thoughts & Lessons Learned

HOW TO FIND GLENN CORN

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer, multiple-time Chief of Station, and current professor at the Institute of World Politics.

Institute of World Politics – Faculty Profile https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/

Great South Bay Consulting https://greatsouthbayinc.com/

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Today it's: Greenland. Davos. Russia. Espionage. Serbia. Ukraine.

In this Ryan & Glenn–only episode of the Restricted Handling Podcast, the hosts break down a whirlwind week in global geopolitics, from President Trump's Davos speech and the Greenland controversy to Russia, Ukraine, China, and the legacy of one of the most damaging spies in U.S. history.

Fresh off travel to Serbia, Glenn brings firsthand insight into the Balkans, great-power competition in Eastern Europe, and how countries caught between East and West navigate pressure from Moscow, Brussels, and Washington. The conversation then pivots to Aldrich Ames, whose death reignites hard lessons about betrayal, insider threats, and the human cost of espionage failures.

Along the way, Ryan and Glenn also cover:

• Why Greenland suddenly matters—and what the U.S. may really want

• NATO, Arctic security, and whether allies are finally stepping up

• Iran's protests: stalled, paused, or still building?

• Russia's weakening position and what comes after a ceasefire

• China's quiet posture at Davos—and why that may be intentional

• Serbia's balancing act between NATO, Russia, and the EU

• Why betrayal inside intelligence organizations cuts deeper than anything else

This episode is part geopolitical analysis, part intelligence tradecraft, and part real-world storytelling—without guests, without filters, and without headlines driving the narrative.

If you want context instead of outrage—and experience instead of speculation—this episode is for you.

🎙️ In this episode, we cover:

• What Trump's Davos speech signals about Greenland and Arctic security

• Why Greenland became a flashpoint almost overnight

• NATO burden-sharing and European reactions

• Glenn's trip to Serbia and what it reveals about East–West competition

• The death of Aldrich Ames and lessons from one of the worst espionage betrayals ever

• Insider threats, loyalty, and how intelligence services fail

• Russia's position in Ukraine as pressure mounts

• China's strategic silence on the global stage

• Why geopolitics rarely moves in straight lines

⏱️ TIMELINE / CHAPTERS

• 00:00 – Intro: Davos, Greenland & a Big Week

• 02:00 – Why Greenland Suddenly Matters

• 05:30 – NATO, Europe & Arctic Security

• 09:00 – Iran Protests: Pause or Pressure Cooker?

• 12:30 – Glenn's Trip to Serbia: East vs. West

• 15:45 – The Aldrich Ames Case: Betrayal Inside Intelligence

• 22:30 – Russia, Ukraine & What Comes After a Ceasefire

• 27:30 – China's Quiet Strategy at Davos

• 31:30 – Final Thoughts & What to Watch Next

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Iran. Prison. Protest. Power. This is not theory. This is lived experience.

In this episode of the Restricted Handling Podcast, recorded from the Institute of World Politics (IWP) media studio in Washington, DC, hosts Ryan Fugit (former Army & CIA officer) and Glenn Corn (34-year CIA veteran, multiple-time Chief of Station) sit down with Emad Shargi, an Iranian-American businessman who spent years imprisoned by the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Emad Shargi was detained by the IRGC in 2018, held in Evin Prison, and reduced to a number—97010. His story is a powerful case study in Iran's hostage diplomacy, repression, and the reality inside the regime's prisons. Today, Emad is a leading voice on Iran's internal collapse, protest movements, and what may come next.

🎙️ In this conversation, we cover:

• What it's like to disappear into Iran's prison system

• Why today's protests are different from 2009, 2017, and 2019

• How the IRGC and Basij actually operate on the ground

• Whether the regime could collapse—and how fast that can happen

• What comes after the Islamic Republic

• Why comparisons to Iraq are wrong

• The roles of Russia, China, Turkey, and Israel if Iran destabilizes

• How the U.S. can support the Iranian people without backfiring

Glenn Corn, now a professor at IWP, adds deep regional and intelligence context drawn from decades in the field, including how authoritarian regimes fall—and why echo chambers are so dangerous.

🧠 NOTE: For those interested in connecting with Emad Shargi or learning more about his work and advocacy, please reach out directly through Restricted Handling at 👉 https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

This episode is raw, unfiltered, and essential for anyone trying to understand Iran, regime collapse, and what real freedom movements look like up close.

⏱️ TIMELINE / CHAPTERS

• 00:00 – Intro & Recording from IWP

• 01:30 – "97010": Inside Iran's Prison System

• 05:00 – Why Today's Protests Are Different

• 08:45 – IRGC, Basij, and Regime Repression

• 13:30 – Could the Regime Collapse—and How Fast?

• 18:45 – Russia, China, and the Exit Options

• 23:30 – What Comes After the Islamic Republic

• 28:30 – How the U.S. Can (and Can't) Help

• 32:30 – Final Thoughts: Hope, Risk, and Reality

🔗 LINKS & REFERENCES

Glenn Corn

• Institute of World Politics – Faculty Profile https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/

• Great South Bay Consulting https://greatsouthbayinc.com/

Restricted Handling

• Subscribe & Contact https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

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Sign up for FREE daily intelligence briefs. You'll get sharp, no-nonsense intel delivered straight to your inbox—including analysis like what you're about to hear in this episode, often before it hits the mainstream.

In this explosive episode of the Restricted Handling Podcast, Ryan Fugit is joined by Glenn Corn and David Fitzgerald—a 37-year CIA veteran and former multi-time Chief of Station—to break down one of the most consequential geopolitical operations in recent history: the U.S. apprehension of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro.

In the early morning hours of January 2, U.S. forces executed a highly coordinated interagency, combined-arms operation involving Delta Force, special operations aviation, CIA, DEA, NSA, NGA, and conventional forces. The mission—described publicly as an apprehension operation—resulted in Maduro and his wife being moved to the United States.

This conversation goes far beyond headlines to explain how it was done, why it matters, and what comes next.

INSIDE THIS EPISODE:

• How the U.S. intelligence community set the conditions months in advance • CIA operations without diplomatic cover—and what that really means • Why Venezuela's oil industry (PDVSA) is central to the transition plan • Chevron's unique role and why it never left Venezuela • Lessons from Panama, Haiti, Iraq—and what not to repeat • The real power dynamics inside Venezuela's ruling party • Narco-state realities, cartel corruption, and Cuban intelligence penetration • China's strategic dilemma and why Beijing may stay surprisingly neutral • What this operation signals to Cuba, Nicaragua, Iran, and beyond • Why the hard part starts now after the capture of Maduro

This is a rare, candid discussion between professionals who have planned, supported, and executed real-world intelligence and stabilization operations. No cable-news fluff—just clear, experienced analysis from people who've been there.

ABOUT THE GUESTS

David Fitzgerald is a former CIA officer with nearly four decades of experience, including multiple tours as Chief of Station across Latin America and senior roles supporting major counterterrorism and stabilization operations.

Glenn Corn is a former senior CIA officer and geopolitical risk expert, known for his deep regional expertise and strategic advisory work.

Find Glenn Corn and David Fitzgerald at Vector One Global https://www.vectoroneglobal.com/our-company

Glenn Corn is also with Great South Bay Consulting, providing high-level strategic insight for leaders navigating global instability https://greatsouthbayinc.com/

WHY THIS MATTERS:

The apprehension of Maduro isn't just about Venezuela—it reshapes the balance of power across the Western Hemisphere. What happens next will determine whether this becomes a model for successful transition… or a warning of what not to do.

Don't miss the next move. Go to 👉 https://restrictedhandling.com and get FREE daily intel briefs delivered straight to you.

EPISODE CHAPTERS:

00:00 – Intro 06:10 – Inside the CIA & Delta Force Mission 13:45 – What Happens After Maduro? 20:40 – Narco-State Reality & Cuban Influence 28:55 – Global Ripple Effects: China, Russia & Cuba 35:40 – The Hard Part Begins

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👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast🔗 ⁠https://www.restrictedhandling.com/⁠ -->Get exclusive insights into: Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and the Middle East

In this year-end episode of the Restricted Handling podcast, Ryan and Glenn break down the most consequential geopolitical developments of the past year, from the grinding war in Ukraine to rising pressure on Taiwan, instability across the Middle East, and growing uncertainty in Europe, Africa, and the Western Hemisphere.

The conversation opens with Russia's war in Ukraine, examining staggering casualty figures, the toll on Russia's economy, and the political calculations shaping negotiations. They analyze President Putin's year-end address, Zelensky's engagement with President Trump, and whether a ceasefire or peace agreement is realistically within reach in 2026.

From there, the discussion expands globally. China's posture toward Taiwan, psychological pressure campaigns, and the quiet but critical semiconductor race are unpacked in detail. Ryan and Glenn explore Iran's internal unrest, protests, and the possibility—however uncertain—of regime change. They also examine Syria, Gaza, Lebanon, Venezuela, and underreported regions like the Arctic, Africa, and North Korea's expanding role alongside Russia.

One of the most powerful segments highlights individuals showing extraordinary courage under authoritarian regimes—from Russian anti-war activists and lawyers to Chinese and Hong Kong dissidents risking imprisonment to speak the truth. These stories underscore the human cost behind geopolitical headlines and why these struggles matter far beyond their borders.

The episode also reflects on 2025's biggest surprises, disappointments, and under-the-radar developments—including the transformation of modern warfare through drones and AI, shifting U.S.–Europe relations, and the rise of economic and commercial diplomacy as a core tool of statecraft.

• Looking ahead, Ryan and Glenn put themselves on the record with bold predictions for 2026: Will there be a Ukraine ceasefire? Will NATO expand? Could U.S. troops enter Venezuela? Will global markets absorb or crack under mounting pressure?

They close with practical advice for policymakers, lessons learned from decades of intelligence and diplomacy, and personal reflections on leadership, service, and resilience.

If you want sober analysis, insider perspective, and a clear-eyed view of where the world is heading—this is a must-watch conversation.

🔔 Subscribe for in-depth discussions on global security, intelligence, geopolitics, and foreign policy. 💬 Drop your questions and predictions for 2026 in the comments.

⏱️ Timestamps

0:00 – Intro 2:00 – Russia, Ukraine & the State of the War 6:45 – Who Actually Plans U.S. Strategy on Russia & Iran? 10:00 – China, Taiwan & the Psychological Battlefield 14:30 – Europe, NATO & Fracturing Alliances 18:55 – Courage Under Authoritarian Regimes (Russia & China) 24:50 – 2026 Predictions: Ukraine, Venezuela, NATO & Markets 30:20 – Final Takeaways, Resolutions & What Comes Next

Glenn Corn

• Institute of World Politics – Faculty Profile⁠https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/⁠

• Great South Bay Inc.⁠https://greatsouthbayinc.com/

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This is an outstanding, high-signal conversation on China, grounded in decades of real intelligence experience and focused on how Chinese espionage, covert influence, and strategic manipulation actually work in practice.

In this episode of the Restricted Handling Podcast, hosts Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn sit down with Nick Eftimiades, one of the most respected experts on Chinese intelligence and espionage. Nick spent over three decades in the U.S. Intelligence Community, much of it focused on China, and is the author of Chinese Espionage Operations and Tactics.

Rather than headlines or speculation, this episode digs into tradecraft, strategy, and institutional failure, why the U.S. underestimated China for decades, how Beijing runs a whole-of-society intelligence campaign, and what that means for U.S. national security today.

• Why the U.S. Intelligence Community historically underinvested in China expertise

• How Chinese covert influence operations target U.S. state and local governments

• The Linda Sun case and what it reveals about United Front tradecraft

• Why U.S. states are uniquely vulnerable to foreign influence

• China's aggressive economic espionage campaign, especially semiconductors and AI

• Illegal Nvidia chip transfers and how export controls are enforced and evaded

• China's strategy toward Taiwan, pressure, psychology, cyber, and espionage short of war

• Why an invasion is not the only or even preferred option

• Whether the U.S. can realistically split China and Russia

• Which allies truly understand the China threat and which still do not

This is a serious topic for serious listeners but in a lighthearted approach that policy makers, military professionals, intelligence practitioners, and anyone who wants to understand how great-power competition actually operates behind the scenes.

00:00 – Introduction: Why China Has Been the Blind Spot 01:10 – The U.S. Intelligence Gap on China 05:20 – Covert Influence and the Linda Sun Case 11:00 – United Front Operations and State-Level Targeting 18:50 – Taiwan: Espionage, Psychological Warfare and "2027" 25:10 – China, Russia, and the Myth of a Strategic Split 30:30 – Economic Espionage: Semiconductors and Nvidia Chips 36:10 – What to Expect from China in 2026 and Beyond

Nick Eftimiades

Nick Eftimiades is a former U.S. intelligence officer with more than three decades of experience across the Intelligence Community, including extensive work on China, espionage, and counterintelligence. He has testified before Congress, briefed senior policymakers, and built one of the most comprehensive open-source databases of Chinese espionage cases worldwide. His work focuses on tradecraft, covert influence, economic espionage, and China's whole-of-society approach to intelligence operations.

📘 Chinese Espionage Operations and Tactics 👉 https://www.amazon.com/Chinese-Espionage-Operations-Nicholas-Eftimiades/dp/0997618833/

🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/eftimiades 🌐 Website: https://www.shinobienterprises.com/

Stay ahead of the world's most critical flashpoints with PDB-style daily intelligence.

🔹 Subscribe: restrictedhandling.com 🔹 Includes:

• A daily intelligence brief covering China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and the Middle East

• Two companion daily podcasts focused exclusively on China and Russia

• Clear, concise analysis designed for decision-makers

Glenn Corn

🌐 https://greatsouthbayinc.com/

Former Senior CIA Operations Officer, Member of the Senior Intelligence Service, and Adjunct Professor of Russian and Soviet Studies. With 34 years across CIA, Defense, and State, Glenn served in some of the world's most challenging postings, including multiple tours as a Chief of Station. Today he advises on intelligence, risk, and strategic security while teaching at the Institute of World Politics.

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Get exclusive insights into:

• Russia

• China

• Iran

• North Korea

• The Middle East

Lebanon. Syria. Iran. Hezbollah. Israel. Russia. Few people on Earth can connect all of these threads from firsthand experience—Ambassador David Hale can.

In this special holiday edition of the Restricted Handling Podcast, hosts Ryan Fugit (former Army & CIA officer) and Glenn Corn (34-year CIA veteran, multiple-time CIA Chief of Station) sit down with one of America's most accomplished diplomats for a no-nonsense deep dive into the Middle East power shift unfolding right now.

With 40 years in the U.S. Foreign Service, Ambassador Hale has served as U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan, Lebanon, and Jordan, including three tours in Lebanon, giving him rare longitudinal insight into how U.S. policy, Iranian influence, and regional conflicts truly evolve over time.

🎙️ In this episode, we cover:

• Why Lebanon is at a historic inflection point after decades of Syrian and Iranian dominance

• The real status of Hezbollah's degradation—and why persistence is everything

• How Iran was finally disrupted, and the danger of U.S. disengagement

• Assad's fall and the hard truths about Syria's new leadership

• Why Israel is expanding security belts—and where it clashes with U.S. policy

• Russia's long game in the Levant—and why Moscow ultimately abandons its allies

• Whether U.S. or French troops in Lebanon would stabilize or explode the situation

• The future of American diplomacy—and whether young people should still pursue the Foreign Service

This conversation is a masterclass in strategic realism—how intelligence, diplomacy, and military power intersect when theory collides with reality. Ambassador Hale also pulls back the curtain on how U.S. administrations repeatedly surge, retreat, and leave vacuums adversaries are happy to fill.

If you want to understand: ✔️ Middle East geopolitics beyond headlines ✔️ U.S.–Iran confrontation dynamics ✔️ Lebanon, Syria, Israel, and Hezbollah in context ✔️ How policy decisions are actually made

…this episode is essential.

📘 Featured Guest & Host Links

Ambassador David Hale

• Institute of World Politics – Faculty Profile https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/ambassador-david-hale/

• Wilson Center – Distinguished Fellow https://www.wilsoncenter.org/person/david-hale

• Book: American Diplomacy Toward Lebanon: Lessons in Foreign Policy in the Middle East https://www.amazon.com/American-Diplomacy-Toward-Lebanon-Institute/dp/0755652223

Glenn Corn

• Institute of World Politics – Faculty Profile https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/

• Great South Bay Inc. https://greatsouthbayinc.com/

⏱️ Time Stamps

• 00:00 – Intro

• 02:15 – Lebanon's Turning Point: Hezbollah on the Ropes

• 06:05 – Iran's Strategy: Why Silence Is Dangerous

• 10:30 – Can Lebanon Prevent Hezbollah's Return?

• 14:55 – Syria After Assad: Hard Truths About the New Regime

• 20:10 – Israel's Security Strategy & U.S. Policy Tensions

• 24:40 – Russia's Role: Why Moscow Abandons Its Allies

• 28:45 – Why America Always Walks Away

• 32:50 – Should Young Americans Still Join the Foreign Service?

• 35:45 – Final Thoughts & Holiday Send-Off

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit restrictedhandling.substack.com/subscribe

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Stay ahead of the world's most critical flashpoints with the Restricted Handling Daily Intelligence Brief — a PDB-style summary covering Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and the Middle East. You'll also get two companion daily podcasts focused exclusively on Russia and China.

Today's Episode

Get ready for an eye-opening, on-the-ground breakdown from former CIA officers Ryan Fugit and Glenn Korn as they dive deep into Glenn's latest trip to Ukraine, the evolving Russia–Ukraine war, shifting U.S. national security strategy, and the global geopolitical chessboard shaping 2025 and beyond.

Fresh off his eighth trip to Ukraine, Glenn shares raw, unfiltered observations from Kyiv and Lviv, including the mood of the Ukrainian people, the Midas corruption scandal shaking political leadership, Russia's escalated airstrikes, critical shortages in air defense systems, and what Ukraine truly needs to withstand the winter.

The conversation then shifts into the explosive 28-point peace plan, the stalled Moscow meeting with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Putin's classic diplomatic power plays, Russian disinformation, European hesitations, China's strategic position, and how the new U.S. National Security Strategy reframes threats in the Western Hemisphere, Eurasia, and beyond.

If you care about geopolitics, intelligence analysis, or understanding the reality behind headline narratives, this episode is an absolute must-watch.

🎯 Topics Covered

• Glenn's firsthand insights from Ukraine

• How Russia is adjusting tactics on the battlefield

• Ukrainian political turmoil: the Midas corruption case

• Europe's role: UK, France, Germany, Baltics, Nordics

• Why Russia made Witkoff & Kushner wait 5 hours

• China's influence inside Russia

• How the new U.S. national security strategy shifts America's priorities

• What Putin fears most

• Why the West must communicate directly to the Russian people

• Timeline

  • 00:00 — Opening + Introductions

  • 00:26 — Glenn returns from Ukraine: trip overview

  • 00:51 — Conditions on the ground in Kyiv & Lviv

  • 01:54 — How Ukrainians are coping with winter + political scandal

  • 04:30 — The stalled 28-point plan & Moscow visit fallout

  • 06:21 — Russia's propaganda tactics & disrespect signals

  • 07:21 — Europe's support: who's helping, who's not

  • 08:30 — EU frozen Russian assets debate explained

  • 11:07 — What the U.S. should do next with Russia

  • 13:04 — Why "win-win-win economics" doesn't work with Putin

  • 14:47 — New U.S. National Security Strategy: Glenn's take

  • 18:00 — Western Hemisphere focus & Maduro–Putin developments

  • 21:00 — How Europe interprets the new strategy

  • 23:59 — Why Russia is applauding the strategy document

  • 26:09 — Disinformation, media accountability & the BBC case

  • 28:36 — Value of NATO and European partnerships

  • 30:00 — China's threat and why Russia won't break from Beijing

  • 31:48 — Who actually has influence over Putin today?

  • 34:38 — Any hope of breakthroughs before year-end?

  • 35:50 — Final thoughts: Why Ukraine needs unwavering U.S. resolve

Want more deep-dive episodes with Ryan Fugit & Glenn Korn? Drop your questions in the comments!

🕵️‍♂️ Find Glenn Corn Online: ⁠https://greatsouthbayinc.com/⁠

• Former Senior CIA Operations Officer, Member of the Senior Intelligence Service, and Adjunct Professor of Russian/Soviet Studies

• With 34 years across the CIA, Defense, and State Department, he's served in some of the hardest locations as a multi-time Chief of Station.

• Today, he advises on global intelligence, risk, and strategic security challenges while teaching at the Institute of World Politics.

Find Ryan Fugit Online: Ryan founded Restricted Handling to highlight some of the authoritarian regimes.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit restrictedhandling.substack.com/subscribe

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📩 Subscribe for Daily Intel - PDB-Style for FREE at ⁠⁠⁠restrictedhandling.com⁠⁠⁠.

Stay ahead of the world's most critical flashpoints with the Restricted Handling Daily Intelligence Brief — a PDB-style summary covering Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and the Middle East. You'll also get two companion daily podcasts focused exclusively on Russia and China.

Delina commands a research and development drone unit, responsible for designing, testing, and deploying FPV, UAV, and signal-support drones directly into live combat. Mike, who once studied abroad in Europe, now operates in a battlespace defined by drones, electronic warfare, and rapid tactical evolution. Together, they offer an unfiltered, first-hand look at how modern warfare is being rewritten in real time.

🕵️‍♂️ Find Glenn Corn Online:⁠ ⁠https://greatsouthbayinc.com/⁠⁠

• Former Senior CIA Operations Officer, Member of the Senior Intelligence Service, and Adjunct Professor of Russian/Soviet Studies

• With 34 years across the CIA, Defense, and State Department, he's served in some of the hardest locations as a multi-time Chief of Station.

• Today, he advises on global intelligence, risk, and strategic security challenges while teaching at the Institute of World Politics.

Find Ryan Fugit Online: Ryan founded Restricted Handling to highlight some of the authoritarian regimes.

Takeaways

• Delina is involved in drone R&D, focusing on aerial technology.
• The unit was moved to Zaporizhzhia after defending Kyiv.
• FPV drone development started in 2023.
• The unit aims to outperform the enemy in impact.
• FPV drones can impact targets 35 km away.
• Delina's team works on manufacturing and IT development.
• Russian tactics have changed, using fog and small units.
• Fiber optic cable drones are used in foggy terrains.
• Maintaining a steady supply of drones is challenging.
• FPV drones strike targets up to 35 km away.

Timeline

• 00:00:00 Intro
• 00:00:11 Delina's Role in Drone R&D
• 00:00:19 Combat Experiences and Unit Movements
• 00:01:49 FPV Drone Development
• 00:03:22 Technological Advancements and Challenges
• 00:03:55 Day-to-Day Operations and Team Structure
• 00:05:25 Pre-War Backgrounds and Command Selection
• 00:06:38 Russian Tactics and Adaptations
• 00:07:38 Drone Technology and Strategic Use
• 00:08:31 Challenges in Drone Supply and Operations
• 00:09:38 FPV Drone Capabilities
• 00:10:37 Morale and Combat Successes
• 00:11:43 Enemy Countermeasures and Tactical Changes
• 00:13:06 Russian Production and Adaptation
• 00:14:27 Social Media and Public Engagement
• 00:14:56 Future Plans and Post-War Goals
• 00:16:38 Final Thoughts and Messages to the Audience

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit restrictedhandling.substack.com/subscribe

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Dive into one of the most consequential and fast-moving geopolitical moments of the year as former CIA and US government veterans Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn break down the surge of leaks, diplomatic maneuvering, battlefield realities, and Russian cognitive warfare shaping the Russia–Ukraine war right now.

In this gripping episode of the Restricted Handling Podcast, Ryan and Glenn cut through the noise to deliver insider-level clarity at a moment when the global information space is being deliberately manipulated.

Recorded on December 2nd, the conversation comes as U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrived in Moscow, a swirl of leaked documents rocks global capitals, and Russia intensifies its information AND battlefield campaigns.

Ryan and Glenn unpack:

• The infamous 28-point plan allegedly reflecting U.S.–Russia discussions

• The Ukrainian-refined 19-point version

• Leaked phone transcripts between U.S. envoys and top Kremlin intermediaries

• Why Glenn believes the Russians intentionally leaked them, and what psychological and geopolitical effects Moscow is chasing

• How the Kremlin uses leaks to sow distrust, fracture U.S.–EU unity, and undermine Kyiv

• The cognitive warfare parallels to their previous discussion with Natalia

• Moscow's obsession with remaining on the "front page" of global attention

• What's actually happening in Krasnohorivka and other hotspots

• Russia's evolving infiltration tactics

• How FPV drone superiority has shifted advantages

• The truth about Russian morale: mutinies, looting their own dead, and staggering casualty numbers

Ryan walks through the hard numbers:

• Inflation surging (likely higher than Moscow admits)

• Interest rates at 16.5%

• Oil revenue down 70%

• VAT increases hitting everyday Russians

• Factories moving to 4-day weeks as budgets deteriorate

• The labor and conscription crises coming to a boil

• How Kyiv views the leaks and negotiations

• Why corruption scandals won't break Ukrainian will

• Glenn's message to Ukraine and the West:

  "Take a breath. Don't fall for Moscow's psychological traps."

• What to expect from the Witkoff–Kushner–Putin meetings

• Why Putin will likely stall, signal openness, but reject major concessions

• How Moscow uses negotiations as another form of pressure, not a path to peace

• Ryan Fugit – Former U.S. Army officer and CIA operations officer with years of service in global conflict zones.

• Glenn Corn – 30-year CIA veteran, senior leader in counterterrorism, foreign intelligence, and international negotiations.

Their combined experience gives viewers rare access to the kind of analysis traditionally confined to intelligence and policy circles. (Transcript Source: )

Want the same daily intel brief Ryan and Glenn use to stay ahead of world events? Get it free at: RestrictedHandling.com

Daily hand-curated reporting on:

• Russia

• China

• Iran

• North Korea

• Middle East

• Sanctions, geopolitics, intel ops, and military developments Plus accompanying region-focused podcasts.

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If you value real analysis over propaganda, hit LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, and share this episode with someone who wants to understand the world—not just react to headlines.

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⭐ INSIDE THIS EPISODE🔥 The Explosive Leaks🎭 Russia's Information Warfare Machine💣 The Real Situation on the Battlefield📉 Russia's Fragile Economy🇺🇦 Ukraine's Resolve🕊️ What Happens Next?⭐ WHO ARE RYAN FUGIT & GLENN CORN?

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🕵️‍♂️ Find Glenn Corn Online: ⁠https://greatsouthbayinc.com/⁠

• Former Senior CIA Operations Officer, Member of the Senior Intelligence Service, and Adjunct Professor of Russian/Soviet Studies

• With 34 years across the CIA, Defense, and State Department, he's served in some of the hardest locations as a multi-time Chief of Station.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit restrictedhandling.substack.com/subscribe

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.