Nate Schwartz (@_nateschwartz) and Kyle Bland (@blandalytics) are joined by Alex Chamberlain to talk approach angles and pitch movement.

This week, Nate and Kyle hop into the world of pitch movement, and Alex Chamberlain joins the discussion as one of the key researchers on approach angles. They start with the foundation of pitch movement—what causes movement, how pitches move, and the topline concepts of movement. They transition to discussing the required context for all pitch movement numbers. This revolves around arm angle and other physical characteristics, such as extension and release point, which explain why the fastball deadzone is actually dynamic. Finally, the group talks approach angles, as they explain vertical approach angle and horizontal approach angle. Vertical approach angle is powerful in understanding fastball performance, and both approach angles are most effective on the edges of the strike zone.

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Nate Schwartz (@_nateschwartz) and Kyle Bland (@blandalytics) talk about four hitters who are doing something new.

After spending the last couple of weeks building up the analytical toolkit on the hitting side, the two investigate hitters who are doing something new—for better or worse. They start with Gunnar Henderson's struggles, looking at how his swing has changed from past years and the effect that has on his decision-making. Then, they look at Munetaka Murakami's breakout season and talk about how his approach is sustainable despite an exceptionally high whiff rate. After that, they take a stab at why Fernando Tatis Jr. has no home runs and project what he'll look like for the rest of the season and beyond. Finally, they evaluate Jordan Walker's breakout season, and why a bunch of small changes are going a long way.

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Nate Schwartz (@_nateschwartz) and Kyle Bland (@blandalytics) about ERA estimators and how to apply them.

The discussion starts by talking about why ERA needs to be estimated. There are so many factors that go into run prevention that make it hard to value a pitcher just on ERA. They first dive into FIP, breaking down why it makes sense to remove balls in play from the equation entirely. This starts the focus on strikeouts and walks as the main identifer across the board. The chat moves to xFIP, which adjusts for league-average home run rate. Next, the two talk about SIERA, and how it's complex compared to the others and is the most predictive. After covering the main ERA estimators, they shift to how xERA is powered by Statcast data, but that doesn't make it more predictive. Finally, they wrap up by mentioning PLA, Pitcher List's scaled stat for pitch level value (PLV) and the players that stand out across these estimators.

Articles discussed: The Relative Value of FIP, xFIP, SIERA, and xERA Pt. II, Dan Richards; pFIP: Pitch Height, Launch Angle, and the FIP Framework, Alex Chamberlain; Predictive Classified Run Average, Connor Kurcon; What is PLV?, Nick Pollack

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Nate Schwartz (@_nateschwartz) and Kyle Bland (@blandalytics) break down swing rates and contact rates for hitters.

The discussion starts with how ABS has changed parts of how we value plate discipline, and how good discipline can play into challenges. They dive into swing rates: they start with how overall swing rate doesn't necessarily mean anything on its own, but can show outlier trends. Breaking it out into zone swing and out-of-zone swing (chase rate), they mention chase rate's importance because no good outcome can come from a chase swing. They move into contact rates, focusing on the importance of zone contact. Overall, they note how important it is that swings in the zone still struggle to create run value, emphasizing decision-making relative to contact ability. Finally, they close by talking about Pitcher List's decision value and contact ability, and what goes into those stats.

Articles discussed: Quantifying the Corey Seager Approach, Robert Orr; The Westburg Paradox, Tanner McGrath; Chasers Gonna Chase, but Where?, Davy Andrews; Heart of the Zone Value Tweet, Kyle Bland; STIO Tweet, Kyle Bland

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Nate Schwartz (@_nateschwartz) and Kyle Bland (@blandalytics) talk about different versions of game score.

They start by talking about the theory behind the original game score, which was created by Bill James. That leads to the second version of game score, developed by Tom Tango, where the two talk about the philosophical differences in what a game score is meant to capture. Then they talk about how Kyle went about creating his version of the game score and what he wanted to get out of it. They extensively discuss the crowd-sourced rankings and how it applies to the letter grades with the pitch cards. Finally, they conclude with ideas for stats to include in a "start watchability" index.

Articles discussed: Game Scores, Bill James; Game Score Version 2.0, Tom Tango; Explaining Pitcher List’s Player Card Grades, Kyle Bland

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Nate Schwartz (@_nateschwartz) and Kyle Bland (@blandalytics) are joined by Sara Sanchez to talk about park factors.

The discussion starts with the group talking about what goes into park factors and what they actually mean. They discuss how specific factors, such as HR or strikeout factors, can be more important than the overall factor at times. They also talk about how the weather can get baked into some park factors and ignored in others (such as the wind in Wrigley). Next, they get into how players prepare and adapt to different parks, both offensively and defensively. Finally, Kyle explains how park factors get integrated into daily & weekly projections, and Sara talks about how controlled environments in domes is good for pitchers.

Articles discussed: An Updated System of Park Factors (and Volatility), Jonathan Judge; The Park Factors are in the Pudding, Kiri Oler; The Impact of Changing Park Factors Around Baseball (Pt. 1)

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Nate Schwartz (@_nateschwartz) and Kyle Bland (@blandalytics) talk about what goes into wRC+ and why it's a strong, all-encompassing hitter stat.

They start by discussing wOBA—the basis for wRC+. It's an important hitting stat that values outcomes in a slightly stronger way than OPS. Surprisingly, the under-the-surface nuances are more understandable for wOBA than OPS. They transition into talking about how wRC+ includes factors such as league environment and park factors, making it a useful contextual tool for any hitter. Additionally, they discuss how the single number can be useful for analyzing player quality but can miss some fantasy-specific stats. Finally, they discuss any gaps in wRC+ and how stable it is. Process+ is also mentioned as an effective tool to predict wRC+ both in-season and across seasons..

Articles discussed: Weighted On Base Average or wOBA, Tom Tango; Guts!, Fangraphs; DRC+: Updates and Improvements, Jonathan Judge; What is Process+? Pitcher List’s New All-Encompassing Hitting Stat, Nate Schwartz (shameless self-plug)

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Nate Schwartz (@_nateschwartz) and Kyle Bland (@blandalytics) are joined by Carson Picard to talk about BABIP and why it's more than just luck.

They start by discussing what BABIP actually is: getting into the original idea and what it specifically measures. Then, they talk about why using BABIP as "just a luck stat" leaves a lot of information on the table. They also talk about why BABIP has been steadily declining since the mid-2000s. The discussion transitions to talking about Carson's set of articles, covering both hitter and pitcher BABIP. Starting with pitcher BABIP, they cover both the internal and external factors that drive a pitcher's BABIP. The hitter conversation centers on which stats correlate best with BABIP and how Under% drives the storytelling. Finally, they conclude by talking about hitters with different 2026 profiles.

Articles discussed: Understanding BABIP Pt. 1, Pt. 2, Pt. 3, Carson Picard; Pitching and Defense: How Much Control Do Hurlers Have, Voros McCracken; Ahead in the Count: Predicting BABIP, Part 1, Matt Swartz; Introducing the Newest Hitter xBABIP, Mike Podhorzer; New Hitter xBABIP Based on BIS Batted Ball Data, Alex Chamberlain; A New BABIP for a Statcast Era, Andrew Perpetua; BABIP Panic, Russel Carleton

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Nate Schwartz (@_nateschwartz) and Kyle Bland (@blandalytics) talk about bat tracking data and why context matters so much for these stats.

They start by discussing bat speed as the best proxy for true batted ball power, but note that it's not as simple as the best swing speed is all that matters. Making the most of a slower bat speed can be just as effective at the same time. They briefly touch on swing speed risers and fallers, such as Cam Smith, Colt Keith, Jesus Sanchez, and Randy Arozarena. Then, they talk about swing length and its relationship to swing speed. This includes topics such as swing acceleration, relationships to plate discipline stats, and what a swing length change means for a player. After that, the conversation turns to swing path, as they break down swing tilt, attack angle, and attack direction. Finally, they talk about intercept point and how a hitter's mentality can shape the changes in the numbers.

Articles discussed: Under the Hood of the Aging Hitter, Joshua Rodrigues; Brice Turang is a Great Model for How to Increase Bat Speed, Esteban Rivera; Swing Changes Through Motion Capture - Hitting Biomechanics, Driveline Baseball

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Nate Schwartz (@_nateschwartz) and Kyle Bland (@blandalytics) discuss how to use a variety of batted ball metrics.

They start by talking about how average exit velocity can be deceptive, and isn't the best way to evaluate how hard hitters hit the ball. Instead, they pivot to talking about HardHit% and get into power stats such as max exit velocity and 90th percentile exit velocity. Then, they move into batted ball metrics that go beyond just how hard the ball is hit, such as Air EV (line drives and flyballs) and barrel rate. Kyle also touches on why PullAir% is an important stat that influences power outside of exit velocity. They wrap up by bringing it all together in xwOBACON, a one stat that measures everything on batted balls.

Articles discussed: Fixing HardHit%: Pitcher Percentile Risers and the Case for K+SC%, Alexander Chase; Exit Velocity: Modeling Average Maximum Athletic Effort, Jonathan Judge; Introducing a Dynamic Hard Hit Rate and "TrueHit", Connor Kurcon; Now Let’s Tweak Hard-Hit Rate Using Spray Angle, Alex Chamberlain; They Don’t Make Barrels Like They Used To, Ben Clemens

Players mentioned: Dominic Canzone, Roman Anthony, Chase Meidroth, Angel Martines, Rhys Hoskins, Coby Mayo, Hunter Goodman, Cal Raleigh, Ozzie Albies, Elly de la Cruz, James Wood, Jordan Walker

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Nate Schwartz (@_nateschwartz) and Kyle Bland (@blandalytics) discuss the importance of WHIP and how it can be analyzed with Str-ICR to find underappreciated pitchers. 

They talk about the basis of WHIP: first, why it's an important stat, and how it can be forgotten when analyzing a pitcher. Is it still important in today's analysis? Then, the discussion pivots to the most volatile part of WHIP, batted ball results. Ideal Contact Rate (ICR) groups all contact that's bad for a pitcher, and is an easier way to understand the quality of contact a pitcher is giving up. The two discuss the significance of finding the right batted balls to measure, and how ICR can be combined with Strike Rate as a proxy for estimating WHIP. This concept comes from an article Kyle wrote two years ago (https://pitcherlist.com/introducing-str-icr/). Finally, they mention players who stand out between their 2025 Str-ICR and 2026 projected WHIP.

Players mentioned: Mick Abel, Jose Soriano, Cade Horton, Spencer Strider, George Kirby

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Nate Schwartz (@_nateschwartz) and Kyle Bland (@blandalytics) are joined by Alexander Chase to discuss auction values and other draft evaluation tools for upcoming fantasy drafts. 

They compare the importance of industry rankings and calculated auction values, then get into how auction values are built using calculators. The group also breaks down auction values specifically: establishing how playing time is such a strong tool and the balance between playing time & talent. Finally, they discuss the individuality of using these tools, such as why knowing your league format matters and how to leverage them in a draft room. 

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Nate Schwartz and Kyle Bland discuss 2026’s newest metrics that matter and where analytics stand heading into the season.

They talk about how players are adapting to all the information they have and what information they want next. Then, they break down bat-tracking metrics, highlight the importance of similarity scores, and share what non-competitive rate means for pitchers. 

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