Weighing The Risks

Chris Davis of Davis Funds - What To Think And Do With Market Volatility

garegantuan@gmail.com (Chris Davis, Rusty Vanneman, Nick Codola) — Mon, 28 Apr 2025 04:00:00 +0000

This week on Weighing the Risks we are joined by Chris Davis, Chairman and Portfolio Manager at Davis Funds. Chris C. Davis joined Davis Advisors in 1989. He has more than 37 years experience in investment management and securities research. Mr. Davis is a Portfolio Manager for the Davis Large Cap and Financial Portfolios. He is a member of the research team for other Portfolios. Mr. Davis received his M.A. from the University of St. Andrews in Scotland.

Key Takeaways

[04:16] - Chris’ professional background and more on his work at Davis’ Advisors
[08:03] - How does Chris define risk and how does he think advisors and investors should think about it?
[11:30] - Given the backdrop of enhanced volatility, how should investors weigh and think about the headlines versus the fundamentals of a company?
[18:27] - What are some key indicators that Chris monitors for the health of the financial sector, as well as the broader economy? Also, the yield curve recently inverted. Is that a warning sign or another false signal?
[24:16] - Might cryptocurrencies and stable coins disrupt credit card companies and how they generate fees?
[34:47] - What does Chris think is in store for the financial sector for the rest of the year, as well as the years ahead?
[39:55] - Does Chris have any advice that he thinks advisors and investors should really think about right now?
[47:01] - Base case economic outlook and how probable Chris thinks this is
[50:35] - Bad case economic outlook and how probable Chris thinks this is
[55:43] - Good case economic outlook and how probable Chris thinks this is
[62:37] - Are there any other risks that Chris thinks investors and advisors should be considering right now?
[66:45] - Does Chris have a book recommendation for this particular time in the markets and economy?

Quotes

[09:33] ~ “If I was to put it purely in financial terms, to me risk is the permanent loss of purchasing power over the contemplated investment time horizon. So, it’s that permanent, and substantial, loss of capital. We measure that not just in terms of the dollar amount that we start with, but the purchasing power of that. That’s not been a relevant distinction in the last twenty or thirty years of low inflation, but I came of age in the 70s where your purchasing power might have been degrading 13-15% a year. So, we really think about that idea of the degradation of purchasing power, overtime, as really sort of the central tenant when we make an investment decision…” ~ Chris Davis

[33:41] ~ “I think this march of technology in financial services is super exciting. My prediction in the short-term, and I’ll say short to mid-term - in the next five years, is that it makes the largest companies more valuable and more profitable. It increases scale advantages, which didn’t exist in financial services for most of the last fifty years, there’s real scale advantages now…longer term I think there may be bigger risk [though].” ~ Chris Davis

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Disclosure(s)

Wealth Management services are offered by Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC d/b/a Brinker Capital Investments a registered investment advisor. Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of Orion Advisor Solutions, Inc. (“Orion”)

The CFA® is a globally respected, graduate-level investment credential established in 1962 and awarded by CFA Institute — the largest global association of investment professionals. To learn more about the CFA charter, visit www.cfainstitute.org.

Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use.

Compliance Code: 1200-R-25114

Grant Engelbart of Carson Group - Bro Bubble Popping?

garegantuan@gmail.com (Grant Engelbart, Robyn Murray, Rusty Vanneman) — Wed, 2 Apr 2025 04:00:00 +0000

This week on Weighing the Risks we are joined by Grant Engelbart, Vice President, Investment Strategist at Carson Group. Grant Engelbart serves as Vice President, Investment Strategist for Carson Group. In this role, Grant is part of the team responsible for the management of the Carson Investment platform, In-house Carson model portfolios, and contribution to the overall asset allocation viewpoints of the investment team. Before joining Carson, Grant was the Deputy CIO of ETFs and SMAs at Brinker Capital Investments (part of Orion Advisor Solutions). At Brinker, Grant was part of the discretionary investment team responsible for many assets across investment vehicles, and managed accounts ranging from individual 401ks to large university endowments. Prior to joining Brinker Capital Investments, Grant held positions at CLS Investments (which has since rebranded to Brinker Capital Investments), TD Ameritrade, and State Street Corporation. Grant received his Bachelor of Science in ﬁnance from the University of Nebraska at Lincoln. He is a CFA® Charter holder, holds the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) designation, DACFP Certificate in Blockchain and Digital Assets, Candriam Certificate in Sustainable and Responsible Investing and Series 65 registration. He is a member of the CFA® Society of Nebraska and the CAIA Chicago chapter. He has contributed to numerous publications and is an active contributor to commentary related to the ETF industry. Grant has three young children with his wife Jessica. He’s passionate about any University of Nebraska sports team, golf, basketball and most outside activities. He is actively involved in his local church and other Omaha-based organizations. Grant Engelbart is not registered with Cetera Advisor Networks LLC.

Key Takeaways

[03:00] - Grant’s professional background and more on his current role at Carson Group
[06:07] - Many of the “Bro Bubble” members are meaningfully off their highs. Why has sentiment shifted so drastically in just one quarter? Are these meme stocks a pump and dumb type scheme fueled by the second coming of Wall Street Bets?
[07:50] - Will the “Bro Bubble” popping kick off a broader market shift or is it just an example of the air coming out of some of the bad momentum names?
[09:25] - Does Grant think the bubble did pop for the “Bro Bubble” names or did it just lose a little layer? Could these potentially re-inflate and, if so, what are the catalysts needed for this re-inflation to occur?
[11:20] - What are some of the catalysts encouraging the outflow from the “Bro Bubble” stocks into international markets and might this trend continue?
[13:47] - How should advisors think about positioning their portfolios in light of the Trump administration's commitment to sweeping policy changes?
[18:37] - Base case market scenario, it’s impacts on the Bro Bubble and how probable Grant thinks this outcome is
[20:57] - Bad case market scenario, it’s impacts on the Bro Bubble and how probable Grant thinks this outcome is
[23:07] - Good case market scenario, it’s impacts on the Bro Bubble and how probable Grant thinks this outcome is
[25:32] - Are there any other risks our listeners should be considering?

Quotes

[09:29] ~ “At a certain point because of Deepseek, which is one the early catalysts for this in some ways, the vulnerability to AI names, which not all these Bro Bubble names are not AI plays per se, but there's involvement there. Then the relationship with the Trump White House, and whatever was happening post election for these names, I think both of those have created an environment where you can’t price Palantir at 240x earnings….I wouldn’t say [there has been]...a complete, utter, ridiculous pop, but there’s an adjustment to a more realistic expectation for these companies going forward. ” ~ Grant Engelbart

[12:22] ~ “The trend reversal in international stocks is really important, emerging markets is part of that as well, and we have brought our emerging market and international stock weights back to neutral, it was underweight for a period of time, mostly due to the dollar strength. They have potentially fiscal tailwinds behind them now, inflation is in a better place in many cases and then there’s a valuation tailwind for international stocks in a big way as well, so…that’s definitely an area to keep, at a minimum, at neutral weight in your portfolios.” ~ Grant Engelbart

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Compliance Code: 0950-R-25091

Dan Davidowitz of Polen Capital - Are There Bubbles in the Stock Market?

garegantuan@gmail.com (Dan Davidowitz, Nick Codola, Rusty Vanneman) — Wed, 5 Mar 2025 17:00:37 +0000

This week on Weighing the Risks we are joined by Dan Davidowitz, lead Portfolio Manager of Polen Capital's Focus Growth strategy. Dan is lead Portfolio Manager of Polen Capital's Focus Growth strategy. Prior to joining Polen Capital in 2005, Dan spent five years as Vice President and Research Analyst at Osprey Partners Investment Management. Previously, Dan spent one year as a Research Analyst at Value Line, Inc. and five years in the health care sector, holding various analytical positions at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center. Dan received a B.S. with high honors in Public Health from Rutgers University and an M.B.A. from the City University of New York, Baruch College Zicklin School of Business. Dan is a CFA® charterholder and a member of the CFA Institute and the CFA Society of South Florida.

Key Takeaways

[02:23] - Dan’s professional background and more on his current role at Pollen Capital
[04:57] - How does Dan define risk and how does he think that advisors and investors should think about it?
[06:14] - What risks keep Dan up at night and what guardrails, and indicators, does he keep an eye on as signals to protect against a bad market environment?
[08:53] - What does Dan think about earnings growth for companies going into 2026 and beyond? Would an earnings growth contraction, or just deceleration, hurt the higher flying stocks?
[11:51] - Have any of the recent developments in AI, and large language models, shifted Polen’s investment thesis in the space?
[16:34] - Where is Dan seeing opportunities abroad and what does he think of China?
[18:55] - How does Polen’s quality tilt flavor the opportunities that Dan sees the market presenting? What pockets of the market are getting him really excited at the moment?
[22:37] - Base case market scenario and how probable Dan thinks this is
[24:10] - Bad case market scenario and how probable Dan thinks this is
[27:39] - Good case market scenario and how probable Dan thinks this is
[32:23] - Are there any other risks that Dan thinks our listeners should be considering?

Quotes

[09:27] ~ “What’s extraordinarily consistent about corporate America’s earnings growth, is overtime it does tend to kind of smooth out to around 6% or 7% earnings growth through cycles…for the S&P500, and then you put dividends on top of that, and that’s how you get the return of the S&P500 overtime. Our portfolio is not too much different than that, except the levers are a little bit different. So, our companies are growth companies, they don’t really pay out a lot of dividends, so we don’t get much of our returns from dividends, if at all. But, the earnings growth of our portfolio is significantly faster.” ~ Dan Davidowitz

[14:18] ~ “Every time there’s been a big technological transformation, it starts with hardware and then you have services and applications built on top of that hardware that eventually become the real value creating stuff…like the Amazons and Googles that were built on the broadband internet, we’re going to have something similar with generative AI. You’re going to have native Gen AI businesses, and also generative AI add-ons to existing businesses that are going to be value creative. Polen Capital is looking more toward that later group. We want to be part of the services and applications that have long-term, durable recurring revenue that will last a long time…but we are not looking to play the cyclical hardware so to speak.” ~ Dan Davidowitz

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Compliance Code: 0564-R-25058

Sam Rines of WisdomTree - Cyber Risks!

garegantuan@gmail.com (Sam Rines, Rusty Vanneman, Nick Codola) — Wed, 5 Feb 2025 05:00:00 +0000

This week on Weighing the Risks we are joined by Sam Rines, Macro Strategist at WisdomTree. Samuel Rines is a Macro Strategist at WisdomTree, where he extends the firm's custom model portfolio management capabilities. Before joining WisdomTree in 2024, he was the Managing Director at CORBU, LLC, leading the PolyMacro advisory product. With over a decade of experience in economics and finance, Samuel has held significant roles such as Chief Economist at Avalon Investment & Advisory and Economist and Portfolio Manager at Chilton Capital Management LLC. He is also the author of "After Normal: Making Sense of the Global Economy," and holds a Master’s degree in Economics from the UNH Peter T. Paul College of Business and Economics, as well as having studied Economics at the University of Oxford.

Key Takeaways

[03:01] - Sam’s professional background and more on his current role at WisdomTree
[04:39] - How does Sam define risk and how does he think advisors and investors should think about it?
[06:08] - Should we be most concerned about the frequency or severity of cyber attacks, or some combination of the two? How do they affect the global economy and market stability over all?
[09:18] - Why do the markets often seem to shrug off seemingly massive cyber attacks (e.g. the Equifax breach)? Would it take a major attack on financial institutions to impact the broader stock market?
[11:12] - Are there any big trends in cyber security that could affect future risks, as well as investment in this industry going forward?
[12:27] - In the cyber security space, what are some potential technological breakthroughs or disruptions that might stand out?
[14:37] - Is investing in cybersecurity stocks an effective hedge against cybersecurity risks?
[17:17] - Base case market scenario for cybersecurity and how probable Sam thinks this is
[19:03] - Bad case market scenario for cybersecurity and how probable Sam thinks this is
[20:58] - Good case market scenario for cybersecurity and how probable Sam thinks this is
[22:23] - What other geopolitical risks does Sam think listeners should be thinking about and considering? Also, learn more about the geopolitical, risk-aware portfolios his team has built
[27:23] - How would Sam compare and contrast their three model portfolios?

Quotes

[04:39] ~ “I define risk as what is the probability of being wrong and how does that effect my portfolio vis-a-vis whatever your benchmark you might have, whether it’s a Nasdaq type benchmark, whether it’s an S&P 500 benchmark…It’s…what’s the downside risk to either not having something in the portfolio or putting it into the portfolio. ” ~ Sam Rines

[07:55] ~ “Cloudflare, and the shutdown that we had for basically half a day or a day…what’s interesting about that is it wasn’t even a hack, right? It was just an update that went wrong, and I think that was really more of a warning to people that if you have a significant hack that affects something that’s a base layer of US, and to a bit of an extent, Global technology, you could have very significant economic effects very quickly across parts of the economy that people probably didn’t think were vulnerable to a cyber attack.” ~ Sam Rines

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Compliance Code: 0316-R-25031

Corey Hoffstein of Newfound Research - Surging Growth In ETFs: A Sign of A Market Bubble, or Just The New Preferred Vehicle for Investors?

garegantuan@gmail.com (Corey Hoffstein, Rusty Vanneman, Nick Codola) — Wed, 1 Jan 2025 05:00:00 +0000

This week on Weighing the Risks we are joined by Corey Hoffstein, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer at Newfound Research. Newfound Research LLC is a quantitative investment and research firm dedicated to helping investors pro-actively navigate the risks of investing through thought leadership and investment acumen. At Newfound, Corey is responsible for portfolio management, investment research, strategy development and communication of the firm’s views to clients. Corey holds a Master of Science in Computational Finance from Carnegie Mellon University and a Bachelor of Science in Computer Science, cum laude, from Cornell University.

[03:35] - Corey’s professional background and what led him to his current role?
[05:12] - How does Corey define risk and how does he think advisors and investors should think about it?
[07:51] - Has Corey ever seen someone try to measure “human capital risk?”
[09:53] - How would Corey define a bubble, and what is a bubble more broadly?
[11:30] - Does the overall growth in ETF assets under management indicate a stock market bubble or an ETF vehicle bubble? If not, are there other indications we could be in a stock market bubble right now?
[19:58] - Is the recent popularity of actively managed ETFs a sign that active management might finally have its day in the sun again?
[27:33] - What is return stacking and what are its potential benefits, and risks, for investors?
[34:58] - How can advisors and investors diversify their investment process and timing, in addition to just the assets themselves?
[43:33] - Base case economic scenario and how probably Corey thinks this scenario is
[50:22] - Bad case economic scenario and how probably Corey thinks this scenario is
[53:00] - Good case economic scenario and how probably Corey thinks this scenario is
[58:17] - What does Corey see for the ETF industry and quant investing in its evolution in the coming years, especially in conjunction with AI?

Quotes

[05:25] ~ “In the world of finance, where I have ultimately come down on risk, is: it’s not volatility, it’s not drawdown [and] it’s not these other potential statistical measures. I think the risk that’s most relevant to most investors, generically, is just the risk of meeting their financial goals. ” ~ Corey Hoffstein

[09:53] ~ “I think my tongue-in-cheek answer to this would be, a bubble is something we all collectively regret investing in afterwards. In real time, a better answer would just be, [a bubble is] when price far exceeds fundamentals and/or the utility of something.” ~ Corey Hoffstein

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Disclosure(s) - Wealth Management services are offered by Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC d/b/a Brinker Capital Investments a registered investment advisor. Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of Orion Advisor Solutions, Inc. (“Orion”)

Compliance Code: 3235-OPS-12/18/2024

Jan van Eck of VanEck - Tariffs and Their Impacts on the US Market, Consumers and Global Markets

garegantuan@gmail.com (Jan van Eck, Rusty Vanneman, Nick Codola) — Wed, 4 Dec 2024 15:01:54 +0000

This week on Weighing the Risks we are joined by Jan van Eck, Chief Executive Officer at VanEck. Mr. van Eck joined the Firm in 1991 and was added to the Executive Management Team in 1998. In 2010, he was named President and Chief Executive Officer of Van Eck Associates Corporation. Additionally, he is the President and CEO of Van Eck Securities Corporation. Mr. van Eck is a Trustee and the President and Chief Executive Officer of VanEck ETF Trust, VanEck Funds and VanEck VIP Trust. Mr. van Eck has spearheaded the launch of multiple innovative mutual funds, ETFs, and institutional vehicles spanning asset classes and strategies. Mr. van Eck founded the Firm’s ETF business in 2006. Through a series of business acquisitions, partnerships, and global product development over the last decade, the ETF business is one of the largest globally with offerings domiciled in the U.S., Europe, and Australia. Mr. van Eck holds a JD from Stanford University and graduated Phi Beta Kappa from Williams College with a major in Economics. Mr. van Eck is a member of the USC Marshall School of Business Board of Councilors and the Board of Trustees of Williams College. He is a former member of the National Committee on United States-China Relations. He routinely appears in the media, including CNBC and Bloomberg Television. Mr. van Eck was a 2013 Finalist for Institutional Investor's Fund Leader of the Year and was the recipient of ETF.com’s 2024 Lifetime Achievement Award. The firm was named 2020 ETF Provider of the Year by Fund Intelligence.

Key Takeaways

[02:16] - Jan’s professional background and more on the history of VanEck.
[03:32] - How does Jan define risk and how does he think investors and advisors should think about it?
[04:01] - An overview of what tariffs are, how they are implemented and how they effect prices and consumption.
[07:20] - What might these new tariffs mean for the US economy?
[08:47] - If tariffs lead to inflation and are sticky, how should investors prepare? Should we consider diversifying our portfolio set?
[11:08] - Are there any areas in the US market that could benefit from tariffs?
[12:31] - More broadly, how does Jan think these tariffs will impact the US Dollar, as well as investments both domestically and internationally?
[15:30] - Base case for tariffs and how these policies will affect the greater economy. How probable does Jan think this scenario is?
[29:57] - Good case scenario, from a pro-tariff perspective, and how probable Jan thinks this scenario is.
[33:48] - Are there any other risks, opportunities or key themes our listeners should be considering?

Quotes

[04:17] ~ “What [tariffs] are is a tax that’s applied to either commodities, or finished goods, that come into the United States…because the [Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act] happened right before The Great Depression, people think very bad things about tariffs…[but] the volume of trade actually didn’t change that much, it’s just that we were going through a significant period of disenflation or deflation.” ~ Jan van Eck

[15:53] ~ “To me the big elephant in the room, when it comes to talking about markets these days, is the fact that the US…Federal spending is absolutely out of control…I know many people talk about this, but it’s sort of the elephant that’s invisible because the US economy and the markets have been doing so well, but that does not mean that it’s not an elephant and it’s really going to effect things.” ~ Jan van Eck

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Compliance Code: 3105-OPS-12/4/2024

Matt Osowiecki of Water Island Capital - Event Driven Strategies and Their Diversification Benefits in a Portfolio

garegantuan@gmail.com (Matt Osowiecki, Nick Codola, Rusty Vanneman) — Wed, 13 Nov 2024 05:00:00 +0000

This week on Weighing the Risks we are joined by Matt Osowiecki, Co-Chief Investment Officer at Water Island Capital. Mr. Osowiecki joined Water Island Capital 2007 and currently serves as Co-Chief Investment Officer of the firm. Prior to being elevated to Co-CIO in 2024, he served as a Portfolio Manager on the merger arbitrage strategy, and he continues to serve as a named Portfolio Manager on several of the firm’s funds. He has been a Portfolio Manager for the Arbitrage Fund since June 2016 and a Portfolio Manager for the Water Island Event-Driven Fund since September 2023. Prior to being promoted to Portfolio Manager, Mr. Osowiecki worked as a Senior Research Analyst on the merger arbitrage team at the firm. Prior to joining the firm, Mr. Osowiecki worked in the Investment Product Division of The Hartford and as a project manager in commercial real estate development. Mr. Osowiecki received a BS from the University of Connecticut.

Key Takeaways

[02:03] - Learn more about Matt’s professional background and his work at Water Island Capital.
[03:21] - How does Matt define risk and how does he think advisors and investors should think about it?
[04:22] - What are some of the various Event Driven Strategies? How do Event Driven Strategies differ from Merger Arbitrage strategies?
[08:42] - What are the main risks of Event Driven Strategies. Also, has a more aggressive FTC made those risks work? Lastly, what are the implications of her, or a new head of the FTC, for the Event Driven space?
[15:32] - What are some of the drivers for the strong Q4, and specifically December, returns that Event Driven Strategies seem to foster.
[16:24] - It is difficult to put Event Driven Strategies into an ETF strategy - how did they accomplish this at Water Island Capital?
[18:41] - How do Event Driven Strategies dampen volatility in a conventional stock/bond portfolio?
[20:40] - Base case market scenario and how probably Matt thinks this is.
[21:40] - Good case market scenario and how probably Matt thinks this is.
[22:37] - Bad case market scenario and how probably Matt thinks this is.

Quote

[08:42] ~ “The main risk [for] Event Driven Strategies, the obvious one, is that the event doesn’t play out the way the investor anticipates. I don’t want to say it just doesn’t occur, because it is always possible to bet against an event occurring, but the main risk again is that the investor is positioned the wrong way for the outcome of the event.” ~ Matt Osowiecki

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Compliance Code: 2897-OPS-11/12/2024

Fritz Folts of 3Edge Asset Management - Politics and an October Surprise

garegantuan@gmail.com (Fritz Folts, Rusty Vanneman, Nick Codola) — Wed, 2 Oct 2024 04:00:00 +0000

This week on Weighing the Risks we are joined by Fritz Folts from 3EDGE Asset Management. Fritz has over 20 years of experience at the investment committee level in the investment management industry. He was one of the co-founders of 3EDGE Asset Management, where he serves as the Chief Investment Strategist and Member of the Investment Committee.

Prior to 3EDGE, Fritz was one of the first team members at Windward Investment Management, a pioneer in constructing globally diversified portfolios utilizing index Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). After the acquisition of Windward by Charles Schwab in 2010, the name of the firm was changed to Windhaven Investment Management. Fritz became responsible for distribution of Windhaven's investment solutions throughout the entire Charles Schwab nationwide retail branch network. He and his team raised over $15 billion in new assets under management. Later, Fritz was named Chief Investment Strategist at Windhaven. He began his career at The Boston Company, where he ultimately served as Vice President, and Director of Global Funding for the then-newly-formed Boston Safe Deposit & Trust Co. (U.K.) Ltd., in London, England. Fritz received his B.A. with a major in Political Science from Connecticut College and his MBA from IESE (Instituto Estudios Superiores de la Empresa), a bilingual Spanish - English MBA program in Barcelona, Spain. He is the former Chair of the Board of Trustees at Connecticut College and now serves as an Emeritus Trustee. In addition, Fritz currently serves on the Investment Committee for the Connecticut College endowment fund and the Investment Committee for the Umbrella Center for the Arts in Concord, MA. Fritz and his wife Cathy live in Concord, Massachusetts.

Key Takeaways

[02:44] - Learn more about Fritz’s background and his work at 3EDGE.
[05:48] - How does Fritz define risk and how does he think advisors and investors should think about it?
[09:47] - Does Fritz think we should anticipate any more election cycle surprises or does he think we’ve likely already seen all the surprises?
[11:35] - Are “internal” or “external” October surprises more destabilizing for the market in Fritz’s opinion?
[13:03] - Might October surprises be more damaging to newer candidates, as opposed to more established candidates?
[15:50] - What kind of cognitive biases do October surprises build upon?
[17:27] - How might the parties prepare for an October surprise? Also, have October surprises lost some of their power because they are expected?
[21:28] - Base case market and election scenario and how probable Fritz thinks this is.
[23:52] - Good case market and election scenario and how probable Fritz thinks this is.
[27:05] - Bad case market and election scenario and how probable Fritz thinks this is.

Quotes

[06:06] ~ “We [at 3EDGE] look at risk a bit differently, because we believe that incidence of extreme market events occur more often than you might anticipate if you use standard risk management models. [This is] because those models tend to employ normal distribution, or bell curves, to manage risk…We consider the global markets to be a complex system of interrelated variables and if you have that philosophy, or premise, then you would not use a normal distribution.” ~ Fritz Folts

[18:58] ~ “So, in terms of [October surprises] losing their potency, yeah I do think that to the extent the public has become almost numb to extraordinary events in the world…it just seems that the nation and the electorate is so divided, with each side so firmly entrenched in their camps, that [an] October surprise would almost serve to just strengthen each sides commitment to their own candidate…particularly in the presidential election.” ~ Fritz Folts

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Disclosure(s) - Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC, an Orion Company, is a registered investment advisor.

Compliance Code: 2529-OPS-10/1/2024

Raj Udeshi of FarmClub - Civil War 2.0?

garegantuan@gmail.com (Raj Udeshi, Nick Codola, Rusty Vanneman) — Wed, 4 Sep 2024 04:00:00 +0000

This week on Weighing the Risks we are joined by Raj Udeshi, Founder of FarmClub and, previously, the founder of Hidden Levers. As a serial entrepreneur, Mr. Udeshi has a history of bootstrapped success. Now fully immersed in a 1,400-acre pistachio farm for the past 4 years, Mr. Udeshi has turned his attention to the things that matter most – security for food, water, and energy. Before entering the agriculture sector, Mr. Udeshi was Founder and CRO of a HiddenLevers, a fintech platform which was acquired after 11 years in business (acquired by Orion in 2021). Mr. Udeshi stayed on as Chief Innovation Officer and then transitioned into farming. He is now the Founder and Managing Member of FarmClub, a nascent agriculture innovation incubator in Central Valley, California. Mr. Udeshi received a JD from Pepperdine School of Law and a BA from Northwestern University, with work experience in appellate law, sales + trading, fintech, new media, and visual arts.

Key Takeaways

[03:16] - More on Raj’s background and his work at Hidden Levers.
[11:56] - Learn more about FarmClub, the new agriculture company that Raj founded.
[16:16] - Learn more about the Hidden Levers’ war room webinars. How did Raj create these and what were they designed to do?
[22:47] - How does Raj define risk and how does he think advisors and investors should think about it?
[26:14] - What about a potential civil war is so compelling to Raj?
[29:51] - How would Raj define civil war, in all its potential permutations, in current times?
[38:00] - Might the US debt be the powder keg or catalyst for a “civil war” type event?
[45:47] - What would it take for the US to lose its status as the reserve currency?
[49:37] - Could all of the political unrest be a potential way of deleveraging and growing our way out of debt?
[65:21] - Base case market scenario for the election year and how probable Raj thinks this is.
[71:12] - Good case market scenario for the election year and how probable Raj thinks this is.
[82:35] - Ugly market scenario for the election year and how probable Raj thinks this is.
[88:24] - Are there any other risks that advisors and investors should be considering right now?

Quotes

[23:27] ~ “Now, I’d say we are in a different era, we’re definitely in a stock picker’s era. Fundamentals matter way more. I’ve noticed just how much equities react on the day of earnings, up and down, just way more than the first 20 years of my career. So, maybe it’s a more fundamentals market now and macro matters less, or it’s just quickly put to the side…and I do agree with the comment that is commonly heard in finance, which is, the biggest risk is being out of the market - right? Over a 20 year period, over a long horizon, the biggest risk is being out of the market, not having something at risk. ” ~ Raj Udeshi

[35:03] ~ “You know The Fed looks a lot at winter, and non-consumption during winter, because people aren’t driving, people aren’t vacationing, they’re not doing those things. So, if there’s a serious amount…a pervasive or scaled violence, what I’d say is I’d be afraid of societal non-participation…people not going out to the movies, eating dinner [etc].” ~ Raj Udeshi

Links

Raj Udeshi on LinkedIn
raj@farmclub.ag
“Harvest Moon” by Poolside (Neil Young Cover)

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Disclosure(s):

Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC, an Orion Company, is a registered investment advisor.

Compliance Code: 2129-OAT-8/20/2024

David Lundgren of MOTR Capital Management and Research - Momentum Investing: When It Works and When It Doesn’t

garegantuan@gmail.com (David Lundgren, Rusty Vanneman, Nick Codola) — Wed, 7 Aug 2024 04:00:00 +0000

This week on Weighing the Risks we are joined by David Lundgren, Founder and Chief Market Strategist at MOTR Capital Management and Research and Portfolio Manager at Little Harbor. David has more than three decades of investment industry experience, with a focus on technical analysis strategies, particularly momentum and trend following. He is the former Director of Technical Research at Wellington Management, where he was also a Managing Director and portfolio manager with extensive experience managing global long-only and US long-short portfolios. David also held senior analyst positions at Fidelity & Thomson Financial. In addition, he has started several research and investment firms, including hedge fund Lyceum Capital, Breakaway Research, and most recently MOTR Capital Management & Research, Inc. He is also the portfolio manager of a private long short momentum & trend following hedge fund. David taught a graduate level Technical Analysis course at Brandeis International Business School, in Waltham, MA (June 2015-June 2020), where he received the 2015 Excellence in Teaching Award in his first year. He is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) dual charter holder, and a member of CMT Association’s board of directors. He launched and Co-Hosts “Fill the Gap”, CMT Association’s official podcast. David is a graduate of Babson College (1988), with a finance and investments dual major.

Key Takeaways

[03:41] - David’s professional background and what he is focused on in his current roles.
[08:23] - How does David define risk and how does he think investors and advisors should think about it?
[13:07] - What is the momentum factor, how is it classically defined and how does David’s definition differ, if at all, in practice?
[21:50] - Does momentum work for taxable investors if portfolio turnover is too high?
[23:18] - How have machine learning and AI algorithmic trading shifted how momentum operates, as well as how it presents itself in the market?
[26:53] - When you see parabolic moves, they often go a lot longer and higher than people expect but once they stall they often plummet, rather than plateauing. What does David think about this?
[30:27] - Based on current market conditions, does David think we are in a bit of a momentum bubble and how is he accounting for this in his strategies if so?
[36:03] - Various market scenarios and how David would adjust them, if at all.
[39:36] - Bad case scenario for momentum investing and how probable David thinks this is.
[43:27] - Good case scenario for momentum investing and how probable David thinks this is.
[45:08] - Are there any other risks that investors should be considering in the current market environment?

Quotes

[04:40] ~ “It’s the combination of momentum and trend that I think is the real home run, if you will, because momentum is…a very valuable input to the investment process, but it also has a lot of problems with it. Then there’s trend following, which is also a very powerful input to any investment process, but it also has its problems…What I find is when you put them together, they emphasize each other’s strengths, but they also fill the holes of each other’s weaknesses.” ~ David Lundgren

[19:20] ~ “Once you make a decision in a portfolio, there’s only four things that can happen from there. You can either make a little, you can lose a little, you can make a lot or you can lose a lot. The truth is, if we are being honest, the only one of those four things that we can control, is we can prevent ourselves from losing a lot of money and then the rest of it is up to what the market is willing to give us.” ~ David Lundgren

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Disclosure(s) -Wealth Management services are offered by Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC d/b/a Brinker Capital Investments a registered investment advisor. Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of Orion Advisor Solutions, Inc. (“Orion”)

Compliance Code: 1891-OAT-7/30/2024

Kevin Baum of United States Commodity Funds - Commodities & Inflation and What That Means for the Global Economy

garegantuan@gmail.com (Kevin Baum, Rusty Vanneman, Nick Codola) — Wed, 3 Jul 2024 04:00:00 +0000

This week on Weighing the Risks we are joined by Kevin Baum, Chief Investment Officer at United States Commodity Funds (USCF). Kevin Baum, Chief Investment Officer, brings over 20 years of experience as a Senior Commodities Portfolio Manager. Kevin is responsible for expanding USCF's product line andoverseeing the company's investment policies and portfolio management team. Prior to joining USCF, he was Senior Portfolio Manager of Alternatives and Commodities for Invesco PowerShares. Kevin was part of the OppenheimerFunds team responsible for launching the first commodities mutual fund and subsequently incorporated the first off-shore Cayman subsidiary for a commodities fund. Kevin also served as Senior Portfolio Manager, Head of Commodities and earned the Barron's/Value Line "Top 100 Managers" designation three times. Kevin is a CFA charterholder and CAIA charterholder. He earned a Bachelor of Business Administration degree in Finance, from Texas Tech University.

Key Takeaways

[03:03] - Kevin’s professional background and more about his current role at USCF.
[05:03] - How does Kevin define risk and how does he think investors and advisors should think about it?
[06:49] - The copper gold ratio has declined over the last couple of months. Does Kevin think this is just a flash in the pan or a big warning sign that we should be looking for more recessionary trouble to come?
[09:38] - Does Kevin think we are in the start of a super cycle for commodities or is their recent two year rally just them playing catch up?
[13:36] - What are some of the constraints for bringing a new copper or rare earth metals mine online and why does it take as long as it does?
[16:13] - Kevin compares the relative benefits of investing in commodities via a Passive ETF vs. an Actively Managed ETF.
[20:31] - Rules of thumb and practical considerations for advisors looking to incorporate real assets, or commodities, into their portfolios.
[23:22] - Best commodities for certain seasonal and tactical situations like inflation hedging and black swans.
[30:42] - A base case economic outlook for commodities, and the broader market, and how probable Kevin thinks this might be.
[33:45] - A bad economic outlook for commodities and how probable this might be.
[36:32] - A good case for commodities and how probable this might be.
[42:05] - What are some other risks that investors should be considering right now?

Quotes

[09:57] ~ “I do think it’s important for advisors and investors to realize that commodities are kind of long cycle, long wave assets. If you look historically we see these decades where commodity prices do very well…Yes, ultimately the cure for low price is low price and the cure for high price is high price and, eventually, higher prices will bring capital into the space, but it takes a long time to develop new energy products [and] to bring new mines online. ” ~ Kevin Baum

[19:03] ~ “We’re not using the gray matter of a Portfolio Manager to swing the portfolio, you know, we’re following the monthly algorithm of our benchmark index…[however] we think that’s intelligent indexing, which is akin to Active Management…We do think that the commodity space is one that really lends itself to that type of approach. So, I would strongly encourage advisors to look underneath the hood and think long and hard about the different implementation choices in this asset class. ” ~ Kevin Baum

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Compliance Code: 1632-OAT-6/28/2024

John O'Connor and Allen Parker of J.H. Whitney - Trade Wars and What That Means for the Global Economy

garegantuan@gmail.com (John O'Connor, Allen Parker, Nick Codola, Rusty Vanneman) — Wed, 5 Jun 2024 04:00:00 +0000

This week on Weighing the Risks we are joined by John O’Connor and Allen Parker, the CEO and President of J.H. Whitney respectively.

John O’Connor has served as Chairman of J.H. Whitney Investment Management, LLC since January 2005. From January 2009 through March 2011, he served as CEO of Tactronics Holdings, LLC, a Whitney Capital Partners portfolio holding company that provided tactical integrated electronic systems to US and foreign military customers as well as composite armor solutions for military vehicles through its Armostruxx division. Previously, John was Chairman of JP Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc. and an Executive Partner of JP Morgan Partners. He was also a member of the Risk Management Committee of JP Morgan Chase, which was responsible for policy formulation and oversight of all market and credit risk-taking activities globally. John has extensive experience in transaction leadership, structuring and portfolio management and is a member of J.H. Whitney’s Investment Committee, contributing significant global renewable and energy investment, regulatory, and operational expertise to the Investment Manager’s team. John earned a B.A. in economics from Tulane University and an M.B.A. from Columbia University Graduate School of Business.

Allen Parker became a Senior Advisor to J.H. Whitney Investment Management and its affiliates after most recently serving for three years as an executive at Wells Fargo & Company, where he was Interim Chief Executive Officer for seven months and General Counsel for the remainder of his tenure. Throughout his time at Wells Fargo, he was also a member of the Wells Fargo Operating Committee, which is the company’s senior-most business committee responsible for considering and deciding on key strategic, business, and operational matters. Prior to his work at Wells Fargo, Allen was a partner for 27 years at the New York law firm Cravath, Swaine & Moore LLP, where he was a member of the firm’s corporate governance and board advisory practice and held a variety of leadership roles, including as Cravath’s Presiding Partner, the firm’s chief executive officer. Allen has extensive experience in matters relating to corporate governance, crisis management, financial institution regulation, financing, mergers and acquisitions, and derivative transactions in the United States and over 20 foreign countries. Allen earned an undergraduate degree from Duke University, an M.A. from the University of Chicago, and a J.D. from the Columbia University School of Law.

Key Takeaways

[02:30] - Learn more about each of their backgrounds and their work at J.H. Whitney.
[05:17] - How do each of them define risk and how should investors think about risk?
[09:32] - What was the genesis behind creating the critical tech and intellectual property index that they put together?
[15:31] - What are some characteristics to look for when gauging the relative importance of IP and its protection? Applying that today, how much of IP protection is just saber rattling and how much is real at this point?
[20:49] - What criteria do they need at their firm to add a 15th type of critical Tech or IP to their index and what criteria do they need to no longer deem one of these 14 critical?
[24:06] - How are countries classified by risk and what differentiates a low risk country from a neutral country? How much do government related contracts factor into this also?
[27:15] - How do de-coupling and de-risking differ, if at all, and where do they think the US stands on this spectrum at the moment?
[31:45] - A base case market scenario and how this might affect their index.
[49:20] - Are there any other risks that advisors and investors should be thinking about?

Quotes

[08:05] ~ “For me, and this is really what we are going to talk about today, I think the primary shortcoming in risk management, at the corporate level today, is in risk identification. ” ~ Allen Parker

[18:19] ~ “The SEC has begun to become much more aggressive in terms of disclosure, with respect to IP on the one hand, and…with respect to cyber penetration on the other. So if it’s worth a lot of money, and it is at risk from Cyber, you as an issuer really need to talk about it now.” ~ John O’Connor

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Disclosure(s) -Wealth Management services are offered by Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC d/b/a Brinker Capital Investments a registered investment advisor. Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of Orion Advisor Solutions, Inc. (“Orion”)

Compliance Code: 1349-OAT-5/29/2024

George Milling Stanley of SSGA - Gold: New All Time Highs and the Implications for the Global Economy

garegantuan@gmail.com (George Milling-Stanley, Nick Codola, Rusty Vanneman) — Wed, 1 May 2024 04:00:00 +0000

This week on Weighing the Risks we will take a closer look at gold. Why is it hitting all time highs and what are the broader implications for the Global Economy? What are the merits of various vehicles for getting access to gold and in what cases might George recommend using one vehicle over another? Learn more at orion.com.

Key Takeaways

[03:47] - George’s professional background and what he focuses on, specifically, in his role at State Street Global Advisors.
[07:16] - Since Nixon took us off the Gold Standard, gold has generally exhibited low correlations with stocks and bonds. Has George noticed this changing at all in this recent 0 rate policy cycle, as well as the subsequent rise in rates we’ve seen over the last year and a half or so?
[09:04] - Why is gold hitting all time highs right now when it typically struggles in similar market environments?
[13:14] - Why have central banks’ interest in gold risen a lot in a post-Covid environment while retail investors’ interest has stayed fairly level?
[18:06] - Words of wisdom, or rules of thumb, for sizing an allocation of gold in a portfolio.
[20:28] - What are the merits of various vehicles for getting access to gold? In what cases might George recommend using one vehicle over another?
[25:41] - Nick presents a base case market scenario for gold in the coming year. Learn how George might adjust this outlook, if at all.
[28:50] - Nick presents a good case market scenario for gold in the coming year. Learn how George might adjust his outlook, if at all.
[32:45] - Nick presents a bear case market scenario for gold in the coming year. Learn how George might adjust his outlook, if at all.
[35:19] - What are some risks we haven’t yet covered that investors should be thinking about?

Quotes

[10:40] ~ “I, personally, and I think some other people with…nervousness [about] the risk on enthusiasm of the markets, have been looking to go a bit more risk off than I have been previously. I think that is why [gold has] been hitting record highs.” ~ George Milling-Stanley

[18:09] ~ “[When allocating gold] the literature basically says that any portfolio: institutional, or an individual, or hedge fund, or central bank…could benefit from…a long term, strategic allocation to gold of somewhere between 2% and 10%. The literature also says, that if you are experiencing or [are] anticipating a period of exceptional turbulence in financial markets, in general, it can make sense to double your allocation to gold.” ~ George Milling-Stanley

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Compliance Code: 0988-OAT-4/23/2024

Jason Duko of PIMCO - Global Credit: High Yields or High Risk?

garegantuan@gmail.com (Jason Duko, Nick Codola, Rusty Vanneman) — Wed, 3 Apr 2024 22:24:04 +0000

This week on Weighing the Risks we will take a closer look at the Corporate Bond market and how tight credit spreads are, relative to long term averages. We consider what these risks might mean not only for the bond market, but for the economy and stock market overall. Learn more at orion.com.

Key Takeaways

[02:00] - Jason’s professional background and what he focuses on, specifically, at PIMCO.
[03:30] - What were the key takeaways from PIMCO’s Cyclical and Secular Outlook Summit and how might these impact the global credit markets? Will defaults continue to tick up, what are the odds of high yield spreads widening to historic levels and how might this affect the markets?
[07:03] - In the current high yield market there is a record amount of BBs – is this a factor in why the credit spreads are so tight? Also, does this reflect a structural shift in the market or is it just part of the cycle?
[09:03] - Is a potential upcoming debt wall a greater concern for investment grade than for high yield or is this concern overblown?
[12:35] - What areas of the global credit market might offer the most value right now? Also, are people overweighting or underweighting high yield at the moment in Jason’s experience?
[18:22] - What are some potential risks that advisors and investors might not be accounting for right now?
[21:32] - A baseline market forecast and how probable Jason thinks this is.
[26:52] - A good case market forecast and how probable Jason thinks this is.
[29:32] - A negative case market forecast and how probable Jason thinks this is.
[32:05] - Other risks that investors should be thinking about that we haven’t yet addressed.

Quote

[03:43] ~ “Last year was an incredible year for the US across most markets and that momentum has carried into 2024 to start the year. It’s really being driven by a really resilient economy. Despite the moving rates, the US consumer remains healthy. There’s just overall been really great momentum in the economy and what we are really seeing this year is kind of a broadening of that strength…I think the key question is, with all of this kind of priced in, what does that really mean [going forward]?” ~ Jason Duko

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Disclosure(s) ~ Wealth Management services are offered by Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC d/b/a Brinker Capital Investments a registered investment advisor. Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of Orion Advisor Solutions, Inc. (“Orion”)

Compliance Code: 0782-OAT-4/2/2024

Brendan Ahern of KraneShares - China’s Economic Risks: How Might They Impact the Global Economy and Markets

garegantuan@gmail.com (Brendan Ahern, Rusty Vanneman, Nick Codola) — Mon, 4 Mar 2024 00:00:00 +0000

This week on Weighing the Risks we will revisit the topic of China, arguably the most unloved market in the global economy. Are the risks properly appreciated, or are the risks even deeper than most investors believe? What might these risks mean, not only for the Chinese economy and markets, but also for the world? Learn more at orion.com.

Key Takeaways

[03:49] - Brendan’s professional background and what he focuses on, specifically, at KraneShares.
[06:07] - People are attempting to point out a lot of similarities between the current real estate issues in China and the Great Financial Crisis in America. Is this a fair comparison to make in Brendan’s opinion?
[08:46] - Recently we’ve started to see some of the big name CEOs re-emerge from their seemingly self-imposed isolation – is this a good sign or a false spring? Should we have concerns about government intervention like many are arguing?
[15:25] - Does the current economy in China look like it might continue a slow descent similar to Japan’s economic doldrums of the 80s?
[19:40] - What might be the effects on the relationship between the US and China based on the outcome of our upcoming presidential election?
[22:54] - What might be some catalysts to turn the Chinese market around and get American investors engaged again?
[26:12] - Some potential market scenarios and Brendan’s thoughts on their plausibility.
[35:42] - What are some other risks investors should be thinking about right now?

Quotes

[09:40] ~ “China does need the West, they need foreign investors [and] foreign corporations. They’re not like a Russia, they can’t afford to be ostracized.”

[17:42] - "We outsource our pollution to these people in Asia. Raise your hand if you want a rare earth processing plant down the road, or a coal smelter…not in my backyard is unfortunately a pretty powerful incentive. What our consumption does to China and a lot of these countries is terrible." ~ Brendan Ahern

[36:42] - "My worry is more [about] this “China McCarthyism in DC. It’s very detached from [the] economic reality of how intertwined our economies are. That’s my bigger risk, is a political [one]...and you know, it takes two to tango, so it could be from the China side, not just the US political side, that some of this just gets a little out of hand. [Though] I’d argue there’s clearly an effort at a high level to stabilize things, which is necessary. " ~ Brendan Ahern

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Compliance Code: 0482-OAT-3/1/2024

Matthew Hougan and Hunter Horsley of Bitwise Asset Management - Bitcoin to the Moon? Prepare for the Future by Stress-Testing Different Scenarios

Mon, 5 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0000

This week on Weighing the Risks we take a closer look at Bitcoin ETFs with Matt Hougan and Hunter Horsley, the CIO and CEO of Bitwise Asset Management respectively. Matt and Hunter bring their unique experience to bear on questions about catalysts for Bitcoin’s growth, Bitcoin “halving,” the pros and cons of owning Bitcoin itself vs. BITB, the tax implications of Bitcoin ETFs and much more. Learn more at orion.com.

Key Takeaways

[02:28] - How does the team at Bitwise define risk and how do they think that advisors and investors should think about it?
[04:20] - The current outlook for Bitcoin and what key factors should be considered when valuing Bitcoin.
[04:50] - Potential catalysts for Bitcoin’s growth in the coming year(s).
[06:40] - Other than reducing supply, what are some additional talking points around Bitcoin “halving” and why does this happen in the first place?
[09:20] - How will the Bitcoin ETFs affect the broader ETF industry and how large of a market opportunity might exist for Bitcoin ETFs?
[11:26] - What sets apart the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF lineup from others?
[15:30] - What are the tax implications for an ETF of this nature?
[18:40] - What new strategies or products might Bitwise roll out going forward?
[21:35] - What are the pros and cons of owning Bitcoin vs. BITB?
[27:28] - How to approach portfolio sizing and rebalancing with Bitcoin ETFs.
[33:00] - A few potential market outcomes and how realistic they might be.
[43:30] - What other risks should investors be thinking about right now?

Quotes

[04:41] - "Historically Bitcoin has had multiple year bull markets, usually three strong years before each pullback. When we look at the market we see a lot of catalysts that would suggest that there is reason for optimism both in the short and long term." ~ Matt Hougan

[15:30] - "Life gets a lot simpler with these Bitcoin ETFs. So, they are technically widely held grantor trusts and you get a 1099 from the brokerage or the custodian, so it’s a really simple story and I think that it is a huge advantage for advisors." ~ Hunter Horsley

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Compliance Code: 0243-OAT-2/1/2024

Michael Taylor of Simplify Health Care ETF -National Healthcare: Prepare for the Future by Stress-Testing Different Scenarios

garegantuan@gmail.com (Orion) — Mon, 25 Dec 2023 08:00:00 +0000

The healthcare industry is in a renaissance of innovation, marked by groundbreaking treatments, drug development, and advances in medical technology revolutionizing patient care. While challenges like cost, political headwinds, and workforce constraints persist, the overall trajectory remains positive and presents many opportunities for investors.

In this episode, Rusty and co-host Nick Codola, Senior Portfolio Manager at Brinker Capital Investments, are joined by Michael Taylor, Portfolio Manager at Simplify Health Care ETF (PINK). For the past two decades, Michael managed hedged and factor-neutral portfolios with a gross amount of over $ 1 billion at funds. He is regarded to have built and run one of the best-performing healthcare funds on Wall Street. Previous to portfolio management, Michael worked as a scientist during the 1990s, developing predominantly viral-vector-based gene therapeutic drugs for the bio/pharma industry.

Michael talks with Rusty and Nick about the current landscape of the healthcare industry, highlighting the advancements in drug development and medical technology. He emphasizes these innovations' positive impact on patient outcomes and quality of life. Michael also addresses the risks and challenges facing the healthcare sector, such as the potential impact of weight loss drugs on the economy and government spending.

Key Takeaways

[01:44] - Michael's background and work at Simplify Health Care ETF (PINK).
[02:52] - How Michael defines risks.
[08:04] - Michael's overall assessment of the healthcare landscape.
[10:58] - Probability of COVID to reemerge.
[17:20] - Michael's take on weight loss drugs.
[24:01] - The government's impact on healthcare.
[31:32] - The demand for healthcare workers.
[35:51] - Underinvestment in healthcare sector.
[39:19] - Michael's thoughts on the market's base case scenario.
[42:03] - Good case scenario for healthcare.
[49:04] - Bad case scenario for the healthcare market.

Quotes

[10:04] - "What's happening in the world of healthcare is that there are so many novel, potent, sophisticated drugs being developed that are really changing the quality of life of humans in a gigantic way. So, the healthcare landscape is having a renaissance, and it's not going to stop. If anything, it accelerates." ~ Michael Taylor

[27:16] - "Having a single-payer government healthcare system would very much be the absolute worst thing that could possibly happen to patients." ~ Michael Taylor

[47:22] - "There's no such thing as right or wrong in investing. It's just 'how can I generate the best returns for our investors?' That's the most important thing." ~ Michael Taylor

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3365-OAT-12/27/2023

Lauren Goodwin of New York Life Investments - Geopolitical Risks: Prepare for the Future by Stress-Testing Different Scenarios

garegantuan@gmail.com (Orion) — Mon, 20 Nov 2023 08:00:00 +0000

As nations grapple with shifting power dynamics, territorial disputes, and evolving international relations, geopolitical risks loom over the global economy and financial markets. From the threat of trade wars disrupting international commerce to the intricacies of diplomatic tensions altering investment landscapes, each scenario poses unique challenges and opportunities.

In this episode, Rusty talks with Lauren Goodwin, Economist and Portfolio Strategist at New York Life Investments, focused on cross-asset and international analysis. In her role, she and her team are responsible for research, macro and asset class views, asset allocation, and thought leadership. Throughout her career, Lauren has linked the macroeconomic environment to investment decisions, whether in banking, corporate strategy, policymaking, or asset management. Lauren has extensive quantitative and forecasting experience and prides herself on translating that experience into actionable insight.

Lauren talks with Rusty about the current geopolitical concerns, with a special emphasis on the Middle East and how they might impact the economy and markets. Lauren also provides insights on various scenarios, including the Israel-Hamas conflict, the war in Ukraine, US-China relations, and their potential impact on stock, bond, and commodity markets. The conversation highlights the importance of focusing on real policy changes and diversification in the face of geopolitical risks.

Key Takeaways

[01:34] - Lauren's professional background.
[03:56] - Lauren's thoughts on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.
[05:34] - The impact of the Middle East conflict on the stock and commodity markets.
[07:57] - The war in Ukraine and its implications.
[10:00] - US-China relations and the risk of China invading Taiwan.
[12:55] - Lauren's advice to advisors about the upcoming presidential election.
[16:12] - What advisors should consider when it comes to geopolitical risks.
[19:04] - Lauren's response to Rusty's base case scenario.
[21:18] - Lauren's thoughts on Rusty's good case scenario.
[23:31] - Lauren's take on Rusty's bad-case scenario.
[24:55] - How portfolios are impacted by globalization.

Quotes

[04:27] - "Be patient as geopolitical events are developing. Short-term moves are likely. But it's the underlying trend that can be obscure at first and really tends to drive an optimal asset allocation." ~ Lauren Goodwin

[16:45] - "When it comes to setting forward our scenarios for 2024, a lot of what we're thinking about are plain old economic risks that impact the market day in and day out. These disruptors can be very tempting to think a lot about. But really, what it comes down to for investors is focusing on action, not distraction." ~ Lauren Goodwin

[26:26] - "When you think about the most complex global supply chains like technology, energy, and even global finance, no one country is going to be self-sufficient in these major opportunity sets. We'll always have to work together or rely on one another in some form or fashion." ~ Lauren Goodwin

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3133-OAT-11/17/2023

Donald Rissmiller of Strategas - Immigration: Prepare for the Future by Stress-Testing Different Scenarios

garegantuan@gmail.com (Orion) — Mon, 16 Oct 2023 07:00:00 +0000

People moving across international borders has long been a defining characteristic of human society, shaping cultures, economies, and societies in multifaceted ways. As economic growth is closely connected to immigration, highlighting the potential benefits of a dynamic workforce, discussions on immigration and its impact on the economy and financial markets provide valuable insights for investors and financial advisors.

In this episode, Rusty talks with Donald Rissmiller, Chief Economist at Strategas. Don has directed the firm's economic research efforts since 2006. He oversees Strategas' thematic research as well as high-frequency econometric forecasting. Don is frequently quoted in the financial press, and his research has been consistently recognized by Institutional Investor magazine in its annual All-America Research Survey.

Don joins Rusty to talk about the potential impact of immigration on the economy and financial markets. They explore the connection between immigration and economic growth, the current state of the labor market, and the implications for inflation and interest rates. In addition, Don shares his insights on potential scenarios and risks related to immigration.

Key Takeaways

[01:56] - Don's professional background.
[02:41] - How Don defines risk.
[06:22] - The connection between immigration and the economy.
[08:49] - Don's assessment of the current labor market situation.
[09:53] - Don's assessment of inflation, the federal reserve, and interest rates.
[12:39] - Expectations for economic growth and corporate earnings growth.
[15:00] - Other things advisors and investors should consider regarding the economy.
[19:04] - Unique considerations that make the current business cycle different.
[23:48] - Rusty's base case scenario and Don's opinion on it.
[26:00] - Rusty's good case scenario and Don's response to it.
[28:17] - Rusty's bad case scenario and what Don has to say about it.
[30:10] - Other risks investors should be thinking about.

Quotes

[07:19] - "If we think about population or workforce growth coming domestically or through immigration, that, in the long run, will help support potential GDP growth." ~ Donald Rissmiller

[07:34] - "Having a dynamic economy could create better productivity growth, exchange of ideas, greater innovation, and greater invention." ~ Donald Rissmiller

[09:22] - "The domestic labor market is very strong, even leaning towards overheating at the moment. Because it's creating wage pressures, which are showing up in average hourly earnings, the employment cost index, and other wage measures." ~ Donald Rissmiller

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2858-OAT-10/17/2023

Marc Pfeffer of M2M Capital - Vulnerable Residential Real Estate Prices: Prepare for the Future by Stress-Testing Different Scenarios

garegantuan@gmail.com (Orion) — Mon, 25 Sep 2023 07:00:00 +0000

The real estate market assumes a pivotal role in the economic landscape, affecting not only the financial well-being of homeowners but also the stability and growth of the entire financial system. However, the industry has experienced significant shifts in recent years, revealing vulnerabilities that could have far-reaching effects on the broader economy.

In this episode, Rusty talks with Marc Pfeffer, Director at the Imperial Fund and Co-Founder of M2M Capital. Marc has more than 35 years of experience in the investment management industry. Before co-founding M2M Capital, Marc was the managing director of S64, focusing on private markets capital raising by connecting alternative managers with asset managers, insurance companies, pensions, endowments, foundations, and wealth managers.

Marc joins Rusty to discuss the potential scenarios and risks in the residential real estate market. With extensive experience in the real estate industry, Marc explores the current state of the housing market, its vulnerabilities, and its potential impact on the economy and financial markets.

Key Takeaways

[02:51] - Marc's professional background.
[04:12] - Marc's endeavor beyond the workplace.
[05:05] - How Marc defines risk.
[06:58] - The current state of the housing market.
[08:58] - The vulnerability of the residential real estate market.
[11:21] - Marc's take on the bond market, mortgages, and inflation.
[16:17] - The most effective way to invest in real estate today.
[17:28] - Marc's view on the future of the overall economy.
[21:35] - How the government can address the housing crisis.
[24:11] - Rusty's base case scenario and Marc's response.
[26:37] - Marc's base case scenario for housing prices and market impacts.
[35:32] - Marc's thoughts on Rusty's bad-case scenario.
[39:28] - The other risks Marc sees in the current economy.

Quotes

[10:53] - "It's very difficult to say what a true housing market is because there's virtually no inventory." ~ Marc Pfeffer

[22:03] - "If you want to get inventory up and get people to move on to housing, you treat your mortgage as an asset, almost taking it and making it portable." ~ Marc Pfeffer

[31:03] - "Stocks can do well without housing, but the economy is very difficult to do well without housing." ~ Marc Pfeffer

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2676-OAT-9/25/2023

Jake Hanley of Teucrium - Rising Energy Prices: Prepare for the Future by Stress-Testing Different Scenarios

garegantuan@gmail.com (Orion) — Mon, 28 Aug 2023 07:00:00 +0000

Energy, often dubbed as the lifeblood of industries, holds the power to shape economies. However, the surge in energy prices has the potential to cast a shadow over the stock and bond markets, sending ripples through the intricate web of financial systems.

In this episode, Rusty talks with Jake Hanley, Managing Director and Senior Portfolio Specialist at Teucrium. Jake has an intimate understanding of investment strategies made available through Teucrium's funds. He is partly responsible for certain fund-related daily operating procedures and acts as an alternate for specific dual control functions.

Rusty and Jake weigh potential scenarios and risks associated with rising energy prices. With over a decade's experience in financial services, Jake also shares Teucrium's current macroeconomic outlook, how to mitigate the negative effects of rising energy prices, and the other risks investors should know about.

Key Takeaways

[03:11] - Jake's background and his work at Teucrium.
[05:02] - Jake's definition of risk.
[06:52] - Teucrium's current macroeconomic outlook.
[08:30] - The potential impact of rising energy prices on the economy and markets.
[10:31] - Jake's outlook on other commodity markets, such as agriculture and precious metals.
[13:04] - How to mitigate the negative effects of rising energy prices.
[15:11] - How advisors allocate commodities in their portfolios.
[17:16] - Other potential risks to consider, such as the situation in Russia and Ukraine.
[19:13] - Base case scenario on rising energy prices.
[22:06] - Good case scenario on rising energy prices.
[24:44] - Bad case scenario on rising energy prices.
[27:19] - Other risks investors should be aware of.

Quotes

[08:13] - "The foundation for all capital markets is international trade currency and sovereign debt. And as you have quakes and tremors in those markets, it's going to reverberate throughout all asset classes. That's why the broad macro view right now is volatility." ~ Jake Hanley

[09:07] - "Energy is the lifeblood of the industry. So higher energy prices either mean lower profit margins for corporations producing goods and services or higher consumer prices." ~ Jake Hanley

[21:57] - "Energy prices moving up can act as a cap for future economic growth. Higher prices can cure high prices." ~ Jake Hanley

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2356-OAT-8/25/2023

Xavier Goss and Hannah Greene of Capital Group - Real Estate Markets: Prepare for the Future by Stress-Testing Different Scenarios

garegantuan@gmail.com (Xavier Goss, Hannah Greene, Rusty Vanneman) — Mon, 31 Jul 2023 07:00:00 +0000

Key Takeaways

[02:59] - Hannah and Xavier's career backgrounds and how they got to Capital Group.
[04:14] - Xavier's definition of risk.
[06:56] - A broader macro outlook from Capital Group.
[12:22] - What commercial real estate is and its challenges today.
[18:50] - How commercial real estate problems affect the broader economy.
[21:00] - Potential opportunities and catalysts for unlocking value in commercial real estate.
[22:51] - What makes up the residential real estate landscape?
[23:45] - The challenges facing residential real estate today.
[26:13] - Xavier's outlook on residential real estate and its economic impact.
[29:31] - Base case scenario for mortgage rates, home prices, and commercial real estate.
[35:00] - Good case scenario for mortgage rates, home prices, and commercial real estate.
[37:59] - Bad case scenario for mortgage rates, home prices, and commercial real estate.
[44:14] - Other risks investors should be aware of.

Quotes

[09:27] - "If you can survive a run on the banks and banking crisis in March and come out the other side relatively unscathed, that's a good outcome." ~ Xavier Goss

[19:05] - "As long as the problems in real estate are concentrated mostly on office loans, there won't be a broad spillover into the economy." ~ Hannah Greene

[24:22] - "If you own a home with a 2% or even a 3% mortgage, it's hard to pull the trigger and sell it because you don't know what home you'll purchase because there isn't that much supply out there. And you can't replicate that mortgage rate, so your payments are up two to three times what you were paying before." ~ Xavier Goss

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Compliance Code: 2048-OAT-7/28/2023

Dan Russo of Potomac - AI Bubble Burst? Prepare for the Future by Stress-Testing Different Scenarios

garegantuan@gmail.com (Orion) — Mon, 26 Jun 2023 07:00:00 +0000

AI has become a buzzword that dominates the headlines, sparks conversations, and captures the imagination of both industry experts and the general public. However, amidst the seemingly widespread mentions of AI, questions arise regarding the existence of a potential bubble burst in AI stocks. As the debate intensifies, weighing the possible risk and scenarios surrounding the AI hype becomes crucial.

In this episode, Rusty talks with Dan Russo, Portfolio Manager at Potomac Fund Management. Dan has been in the securities industry for 23 years. His experience includes a wide range of institutional investors, working with them to perform fundamental, technical, and quantitative research to navigate the market and generate actionable trading and investment ideas. At Potomac Fund Management, Dan conducts technical and quantitative analysis, structuring portfolios of ETFs based on this analysis and providing ongoing written research for the firm's financial advisor client base.

Dan and Rusty weigh some potential scenarios and risks from the possibility of a bubble burst in artificial intelligence stocks and future scenarios for the stock market, technology stocks, and interest rates.

Key Takeaways

[02:31] - Dan's career background and how he got to Potomac Fund Management.
[03:38] - How Dan defines risk.
[06:38] - Is AI-related stock overvalued?
[10:07] - Are there signs of speculative behavior in AI investments and indications of a herd mentality?
[13:16] - How sustainable is the AI industry's growth trajectory?
[15:30] - Will artificial intelligence increase investment companies' efficiency and productivity?
[17:44] - How AI impacts the markets over time and how investment managers manage their portfolios moving forward.
[20:44] - Rusty's risk and scenario on AI's impact on U.S. stocks, technology stocks, and interest rates.
[22:25] - Dan's perspective on Rusty's first base-case scenario.
[24:58] - Rusty's good case scenario for AI stocks.
[30:03] - What other risks should investors think about?

Quotes

[12:53] - "There's probably a bubble in media mentions of the phrase AI. But I can make a compelling case that this is not super crowded at this point. And I wonder if I would call it a bubble yet." ~ Dan Russo

[19:10] - "If you are a fundamental investment manager or stock picker, keep doing your job. Keep analyzing these companies from the bottom up and then just incorporate AI into that analysis process." ~ Dan Russo

[30:30] - "Investors should also think about regulatory risks. We have no idea how governments are going to react to the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence." ~ Dan Russo

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1696-OAT-6/21/2023

Kevin Preloger of Janus Henderson - 2023 Banking Crisis: Prepare for the Future by Stress-Testing Different Scenarios

garegantuan@gmail.com (Orion) — Mon, 22 May 2023 07:00:00 +0000

The banking sector has long been considered a cornerstone of economic stability. However, the 2023 banking crisis cast a dark shadow over financial markets. This raised concerns about bank stability, stock markets, and the economy's overall health. As analysts and investors brace themselves for potential impacts, various scenarios are explored, ranging from cautious optimism to gloomy apprehension.

In this episode, Rusty talks with Kevin Preloger, Portfolio Manager at Janus Henderson Investors. In his role, Kevin co-manages the U.S. Mid Cap Value and U.S. SMID Cap Value strategies. Kevin joined the firm in 2002 as a financial services research analyst.

Kevin and Rusty weigh some potential risks and scenarios from the 2023 banking crisis and possible future scenarios for the stock market, bank stocks, and interest rates. They also talk about how the banking crisis might impact the economy and the markets, the possible baseline expectation, what's a good case scenario, and what could be a bad one.

Key Takeaways

[02:32] - How Kevin got to Janus Henderson Investors.
[04:17] - Kevin's definition of risk.
[06:57] - Why we have a banking crisis.
[10:37] - The government's response to the current banking crisis.
[15:11] - Kevin's outlook on the current banking crisis.
[17:04] - How advisors should manage investment portfolios in light of the current banking crisis.
[21:31] - Kevin's perspective on bank stability for the next 12 months.
[24:00] - Kevin's take on the economy doing better.
[26:48] - A worst-case scenario on the economy and the markets.
[29:47] - The other risks investors should consider.

Quotes

[07:11] - "Interest rates were so low for so long. We had an issue in the late nineties with long-term capital management, Russian defaults, the tech wreck in 2000, the great financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, and here we are today. All these events in the last two decades have caused angst in the marketplace and destroyed a lot of capital." ~ Kevin Preloger

[08:19] - "The fuel on the fire was a fiscal policy that was too stimulative because the pandemic-related spending added to the issue. So interest rates, inflation, and regulatory and supervisory lapses are the things that might have been pointed out as issues in a banking crisis." ~ Kevin Preloger

[26:00] - "Any customer that's wobbling pre-pandemic was bailed out for two years with all the zero rates and fiscal stimulus. That's all gone away now. And if credit is contracting even more, the marginal borrower that's in a tough position before the pandemic is in a tougher position now." ~ Kevin Preloger

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1339-OAT-5/15/2023

Phillip Toews of Toews Asset Management - Record Global Debt

garegantuan@gmail.com (Orion) — Mon, 17 Apr 2023 07:00:00 +0000

Global debt has hit an all-time high, making its way into the headlines worldwide. Debt held by governments, corporations, and individuals has alarmed economists and finance experts alike. While some argue that this debt load is necessary for economic recovery and growth, others warn that this could have far-reaching consequences for the economy around the world.

In this episode, Rusty talks with Phillip Toews, Founder and CEO of Toews Asset Management. Phillip has a passion for behavioral finance and its role in investment decision-making. He focuses on creating "investor-friendly" products and is an outspoken advocate of changing and improving investment vehicles to serve clients' needs. Phillip is also the Founder and CEO of the Behavioral Investing Institute, where he helps advisors cultivate their skills and, through education, seek to serve their clients better.

Phillip and Rusty weigh some of the potential scenarios and risks from the hidden implications of record global debt and some of the possible future scenarios for the stock market, interest rates, and real assets.

Key Takeaways

[02:50] - The origins of Toews Asset Management.
[04:12] - Phillip's definition of risk.
[06:18] - How bad the debt situation is right now.
[08:40] - What financial repression means for the economy and investors.
[11:27] - What financial crisis means for the economy and the markets.
[13:37] - What the extended economic malaise looks like for investors.
[16:18] - How investors can build resilient portfolios in today's environment.
[20:37] - How the dollar plays out in the current economic climate.
[25:22] - What history says happened during a time of financial repression.
[29:56] - Phillip's view of the extended economic malaise.

Quotes

[04:36] - "I define risks as the probability that I will have a lower standard of living than I expect I want. At the extreme end, it means I run completely of money or am destitute. At a less extreme, it means that I will be living a certain standard of living during retirement. But something happens in the markets, and suddenly, I can't do that." ~ Phillip Toews

[07:14] - "We have record levels of debt. We've got sovereign debt, where in the U.S. and some other advanced economies were up to 100% of GDP, which is as high as ever. Simultaneously we have high levels of non-financial, corporate, and personal debt. To sum it up, it's 350% of GDP. That's a new record." ~ Phillip Toews

[17:53] - "Building a behavioral portfolio means creating an all-weather type of portfolio that looks outside of the sphere of what's happened in the last 50 years. That includes things like the Great Depression or things like what happened in Japan, where you need to build something that addresses contingencies." ~ Phillip Toews

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1020-OAT-4/11/2023

Jay Jacobs of BlackRock - Artificial Intelligence: Prepare for the Future by Stress-Testing Different Scenarios

garegantuan@gmail.com (Orion) — Mon, 13 Mar 2023 07:00:00 +0000

The financial industry is no stranger to technological advancements and has been at the forefront of adopting new technologies to streamline operations and improve customer experiences. With the introduction of ChatGPT, financial institutions have been able to take financial management to the next level. As the adoption of AI continues to accelerate, what are some of the risks and scenarios this technology has in the financial ecosystem?

In this episode, Rusty talks with Jay Jacobs, U.S. Head of Thematics and Active Equity ETFs at BlackRock. Before BlackRock, Jay joined Global X ETFs in 2013 and founded the firm's Research and Strategy team, which originates the firm's insights on markets and ETFs. In his current role, Jay is responsible for the research and development of the Megatrends suite, driving the commercialization of these products, and managing product sales and marketing for the Megatrend franchise. Jay is also responsible for BlackRock's active equity and international ETF suites.

Recognizing that artificial intelligence will impact careers, the economy, and the markets, Jay talks to Rusty about one of the most popular generative AI today, ChatGPT. They also explore the impact of AI on the financial industry, how AI will affect U.S. stocks, technology, and interest rates in the future, and weigh some of AI's potential risks and scenarios.

Key Takeaways

[01:40] - Jay's professional background and his role at BlackRock.
[03:13] - How Jay defines risk.
[05:48] - What ChatGPT is and what it means for the future of AI.
[07:34] - What the industry has learned from ChatGPT's explosive growth.
[08:54] - The impact of generative AI on the financial industry.
[10:37] - Why disruptive growth opportunities are shrinking in the current interest rate environment.
[12:51] - The winners and losers from the rise of AI.
[14:47] - One of the best things Jay has ever done with ChatGPT.
[18:13] - Jay's thoughts on how AI will affect U.S. stocks, technology, and interest rates in the future.
[23:58] - A good use case scenario for artificial intelligence.
[26:41] - How innovation fits into the investment portfolio.
[28:52] - Other risk factors investors should consider.

Quotes

[03:28] - "One of the risks that people sometimes don't think too much about in the finance world is the risk of disruption, the risk that things can change unexpectedly." ~ Jay Jacobs

[06:16] - "ChatGPT is just one of a grouping of companies in the AI space called generative AI. These software programs can take simple inputs and turn them into something completely new." ~ Jay Jacobs

[27:18] - "Most people are generally underweight in innovation. They think they have innovation because the S&P 500 benchmarks tend to have a lot of exposure to technology and communication services. But when you look under the hood, a lot of that is previous-generation technologies, not truly innovative technologies that will disrupt and create entirely new markets." ~ Jay Jacobs

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0667-OAT-3/6/2023

Brendan Ahern of KraneShares - China Re-Opening: Prepare for the Future by Stress-Testing Different Scenarios

garegantuan@gmail.com (Orion) — Mon, 27 Feb 2023 08:00:00 +0000

With China being the world's second-largest economy and a major trading partner for many countries, re-opening after COVID will significantly impact global markets and the economy. As the country gradually emerges from lockdown and resumes economic activity, what does this mean for businesses, investors, and consumers worldwide?

In this episode, Rusty talks with Brendan Ahern, Chief Investment Officer at KraneShares. In his role, Brendan leads the firm's research and education efforts. He actively works with investors on various subjects ranging from asset allocation to trading to articulating the growing influence that index providers hold in the asset management industry. Brendan is considered an expert in global financial markets with a particular focus on China. He is a frequent visitor to China and actively maintains daily contact with a deep local research network comprised of investment banks, brokers, and regional and boutique research firms.

A leading expert on the Chinese economy and markets, Brendan talks with Rusty about some of the potential scenarios and risks regarding one of the biggest factors on the global economy and markets this year, and that is the re-opening of the Chinese economy after COVID. Brendan also speaks about the current relationship between the U.S. and China, deglobalization, and the expected growth and valuation of China's re-opening.

Key Takeaways

[01:46] - An overview of Brendan's wealth management career.
[04:28] - How Brendan defines risk.
[07:05] - The impact of China's re-opening on the global economy.
[09:27] - The current relationship between the U.S. and China.
[12:14] - Brendan's perspective on real estate investing in China.
[15:18] - What Brendan has to say about deglobalization.
[20:51] - The impact of China's invasion of Taiwan.
[23:59] - How Brendan sees returns and risks in the next 12 months.
[27:24] - The expected growth and valuation of China's re-opening.
[33:11] - What percentage of emerging market assets is held by China.
[37:21] - KraneShares' top investment ideas for 2023.
[44:01] - Why U.S. equities are a global phenomenon.
[46:38] - Other risks investors should think about.

Quotes

[08:23] - "The China consumption story is the story in 2023. Great U.S. multinationals and many Chinese companies will directly benefit e-commerce companies, and people will benefit from that." ~ Brendan Ahern

[11:24] - "The U.S. and China economies are highly intertwined. It's the largest trade relationship globally. It's the first time in five years, a top U.S. government official was going to visit China." ~ Brendan Ahern

[27:36] - "The consumer coming back will not be an overnight thing. It will happen slowly, and consumer confidence will grow over the course of this year." ~ Brendan Ahern

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0498-OAT-2/16/2023

Michael Ashton of Enduring Investments - Inflation Peaks: Prepare for the Future by Stress-Testing Different Scenarios

garegantuan@gmail.com (Orion) — Mon, 30 Jan 2023 08:00:00 +0000

Inflation can be tricky to predict and manage, so preparing for the inevitable peak is important. While it's impossible to know exactly when or how high inflation will spike, what could investors do to mitigate the effects and protect themselves from the negative consequences of high inflation?

In this episode, Rusty talks with Michael Ashton, Managing Principal at Enduring Investments. Before founding Enduring Investments, Michael worked in research, sales, and trading for several large investment banks, including Bankers Trust, Barclays Capital, and J.P. Morgan. Since 2003, when he traded the first interbank U.S. CPI swaps, and 2004 when he was the lead market maker for the CME's CPI Futures contract, Michael has played a role in developing new instruments and methods for accessing and hedging various inflation exposures.

A leading inflation product and market expert, otherwise known as the "inflation guy," Michael talks with Rusty about the current inflation landscape, some potential scenarios and risks regarding inflation in the year ahead, and what financial advisors and investors can do to hedge inflation.

Key Takeaways

[03:35] - Michael's career history and why he's known as "the inflation guy".
[04:33] - What Enduring Investments does for its clients.
[05:48] - What Michael defines as risk.
[09:39] - How Michael describes the current inflation landscape.
[12:48] - A historical analysis of today's inflationary environment.
[15:38] - How inflation impacts stocks, bonds, and real assets.
[18:49] - Michael's outlook on inflation for the next 12 months.
[21:53] - What financial advisors and investors can do to hedge inflation.
[24:48] - Michael's rule of thumb for inflation hedges.
[31:20] - Rusty's take on today's inflationary climate.
[36:32] - What Michael has to say on Rusty's inflation best-case scenario.
[42:22] - A bad case scenario for inflation.
[50:42] - A few other risks investors should keep in mind.

Quotes

[13:28] - "If you use our current methods back in the early 80s, we ended up with roughly the same level of inflation. The analogy is that it takes years to get the genie back in the bottle, even if you know what you're doing and do it fairly aggressively." ~ Michael Ashton

[18:30] - "In a higher level of inflation, stocks and bonds become correlated. And that's the part that has big portfolio implications and is underappreciated right now." ~ Michael Ashton

[19:31] - "As an investor, it's important to consider what you think will happen versus what the market is pricing and what opportunities the market gives." ~ Michael Ashton

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0143-OAT-1/19/2023

Grant Engelbart of Brinker Capital - Corporate Earnings Weakness: Prepare for the Future by Stress-Testing Different Scenarios

garegantuan@gmail.com (Orion) — Mon, 26 Dec 2022 08:00:00 +0000

Investors are always looking for clues about where the stock market is headed, and corporate earnings are one of the most significant indicators of stock market performance. While 2023 is shaping to be an exciting year for the economy and the market, it is important to consider the potential risks and scenarios that could impact corporate earnings growth.

In this episode, Rusty talks with Grant Engelbart, Senior Portfolio Manager at Brinker Capital Investment. Grant manages aggressive mutual funds and several ETF and mutual fund separate account strategies in his role. He also leads the alternative broad asset class team and serves on several committees across Brinker’s parent company, Orion Advisor Solutions.

Knowing the corporate earnings landscape in detail, Grant talks with Rusty about some potential scenarios and risks regarding corporate earnings in the year ahead, including the possibility of a recession, which is a top concern with many financial advisors and investors.

Key Takeaways

[02:35] - Grant’s professional background and what Brinker Capital does.
[05:12] - Grant's definition of risk.
[07:14] - The expectations for earnings growth in 2023.
[10:57] - The impact of a recession on corporate earnings.
[12:47] - What it takes to achieve positive earnings results.
[15:12] - How earnings and earnings expectations affect portfolio management.
[18:01] - Why margin should be considered in the coming year.
[23:24] - Grant's argument about the baseline for economic growth.
[29:03] - Other risks that investors should be aware of.

Quotes

[05:21] - "We've been defining risk in a very quantitative, measurable way. That makes sense when you're building a portfolio. But from a client perspective, risk is an investor not staying invested." ~ Grant Engelbart

[16:43] - "There's so much that people get caught up on - inflation, war, the Fed. But all these things impact the market in the short term. It is earnings that drive stock prices over the long-term." ~ Grant Engelbart

[29:10] - "The biggest risks aren't the ones that are telegraphed. It's not a recession risk that has been talked about for years. It's the lack of allocation in emerging markets and the inability to take advantage of the area that's growing." ~ Grant Engelbart

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2466-OAT-12/20/2022

Kim Arthur of Main Management - Geopolitical Turbulence: Prepare for the Future by Stress-Testing Different Scenarios

garegantuan@gmail.com (Orion) — Mon, 21 Nov 2022 08:00:00 +0000

With the current political climate, it's important to know the risks and scenarios that could play out from different geopolitical topics. From trade disputes to military conflict, there are many ways that geopolitical unrest can impact the economy and the market.

In this episode, Rusty talks with Kim Arthur, President and CEO at Main Management. Kim began his financial career in 1987 when he joined Montgomery Securities in their Institutional Sales division. In 2009, he was recognized by Institutional Investor Magazine as a "Rising Star" of Foundations and Endowments. Kim has also been profiled in Index Universe articles and referenced in Barron's, Wall Street Journal, Business Week, and Fortune Magazine, among others.

Kim talks with Rusty about some potential risks and scenarios from different geopolitical topics that are top of mind for many financial advisors and investors and the impact geopolitical turbulence might have on the economy and the market.

Key Takeaways

[03:21] - Kim's career history and key role at Main Management.
[07:12] - Why investors should consider geopolitical risk in their portfolios.
[08:48] - The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the market.
[12:06] - Kim's perspective on investing in China.
[16:08] - How Main Management views the U.K. from an investment perspective.
[18:07] - What Kim thinks about deglobalization.
[23:07] - The good, the bad, and the ugly of the rising dollar.
[26:10] - Other geopolitical risks investors should be aware of.
[30:14] - Kim's rationale for deglobalization.
[34:30] - What the market looks like during actual hostilities.
[41:10] - Other risks investors should consider in this current environment.
[46:09] - An equity fund inflows and outflows analysis.

Quotes

[07:29] - "The two things that have to be considered with geopolitical risk are once you go outside of your home country, you are exposing yourself to currency risk. If it's a tailwind, that can be very nice, but if it's a headwind like it's been for the last 11 years, it can be very painful. Then the political and conflict aspect. Many countries don't play by the same rules you and I play in the U.S." ~ Kim Arthur

[24:26] - "There have been huge flows from overseas into the U.S. dollar because of the safe haven of this country that we are in. The good is it's cheaper to import things. The bad is that the high dollar is a huge currency headwind. The ugly is when you have the dollar's strength, emerging currencies blow up big time." ~ Kim Arthur

[41:34] - "Risk, by definition, exposes you to danger, harm, or loss. None of those sounds good. But you can reduce all of those if you take calculated risk-taking." ~ Kim Arthur

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Disclosure

Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. The past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use.

2168-OPS-11/10/2022

Matthew Bartolini of SPDR Americas Research - Risks and Market Scenarios From the 2022 Midterm Elections

garegantuan@gmail.com (Orion) — Wed, 19 Oct 2022 19:00:00 +0000

Welcome to the premiere episode of Weighing The Risk. This podcast was created to help financial advisors and investors reach long-term financial goals. Each month, we examine the top-of-mind economic or market topics, and the probability and possibility of various scenarios that could impact investment portfolios.

In this episode, Rusty talks with Matthew Bartolini, Managing Director and Head of SPDR Americas Research. In his role, Matthew is responsible for all product research and analysis of both SPDR ETFs and SSGA Funds. His team develops proprietary research, strategies, and thought leadership for the firm's ETF and mutual fund product suite. Matthew aims to help clients better understand the market landscape and achieve their desired investment outcome through customized solutions and proprietary research.

Matthew talks with Rusty about the current electoral map, how the market typically behaves around midterm elections, and how he sees the market in different scenarios.

Key Takeaways

[01:08] - Welcome to Weighing The Risk.
[03:06] - How Matthew came to work at SPDR Research.
[04:33] - How Matthew defines risk.
[05:40] - What the current electoral map looks like.
[12:16] - How the market typically behaves around midterm elections.
[17:47] - How Republicans' victory will affect the economy and the market.
[19:52] - What the market and economy will look like if the Democrats win.
[23:19] - Matthew's take on different market scenarios.
[32:19] - Other risks investors should take into account.
[33:49] - The impact of de-globalization on relative performance in the future.
[35:11] - The current state of inflation.

Quotes

[01:22] - "As financial advisors and investors, we have to recognize what we can control and what we cannot. As for what we can control, we can analyze portfolio risk, diversify portfolios and, to a large extent, manage expectations, and help with each of these. That's why we consider various market scenarios." ~ Rusty Vanneman

[13:42] - "Interestingly, the one year following the midterm election has never been a negative return period for the S&P 500, dating back to 1939. In 80 years, we've never had negative runs in that one year following. Markets generally behave well past the midterm elections." ~ Matthew Bartolini

[22:30] - "If we have a split congress, beware of political theatrics around the debt ceiling debate and government shutdowns. And historically, the headlines are worse than the actual impact. That creates near-term volatility." ~ Matthew Bartolini

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1884-OPS-10/11/2022