Carnegie Politika Podcast

How Is Central Asia Weathering the Iran War?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Alexander Gabuev, Temur Umarov) — Thu, 26 Mar 2026 14:19:58 +0000

Central Asia’s countries have been the focus of increased attention since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. They have been involved in parallel imports, feeding the Kremlin’s war economy, but have also hosted thousands of anti-war refugees from Russia and occasionally demonstrated support for Ukraine, despite Moscow’s ire. Now, with the war in Iran unfolding on their doorstep, the five states must navigate new challenges while not alienating the major local players—Russia and China—and further afield, the United States.

What are the risks and opportunities for Central Asia from the Iran war? How is the region navigating Trump’s volatility? How are Russia and China competing and cooperating in Central Asia, and what is the region’s approach to managing the Beijing-Moscow axis?

How Is the Iran War Affecting Russia? With Nicole Grajewski and Sergey Vakulenko

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Alexander Gabuev, Sergey Vakulenko, Nicole Grajewski) — Thu, 12 Mar 2026 15:01:24 +0000

At the center of the new war in the Middle East is one of Russia’s most important partners in its struggle against the West: Iran. Despite strategic agreements with Tehran, Moscow is not bound by a treaty alliance with Iran—and is also consumed by its own costly war against Ukraine. Accordingly, the Kremlin has provided the Iranian regime with limited assistance, but hopes to reap greater benefits from the second-order effects of the chaos in the Middle East unleashed by Trump.

How does the war affect Russia both in the Middle East and globally? How do volatile oil prices benefit the Russian war machine, and how long will the effect of this new war last for Russia?

How the South Caucasus Is Navigating a Turbulent World

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Alexander Gabuev, Zaur Shiriyev, Philip Gamaghelyan) — Thu, 26 Feb 2026 13:35:51 +0000

Following the initiation of a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan last summer, there is still a long way to go before the conclusion of a formal agreement and sustainable peace in the region. In the wake of a visit by U.S. Vice President JD Vance and a plethora of signed agreements, the South Caucasus finds itself less and less dependent on a previous regional hegemon: Russia. What does this mean for the region? What obstacles remain on the road to a full-fledged peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan?

Check out the paper here.

What to Expect From the Russian Economy in 2026

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Alexander Gabuev, Alexandra Prokopenko) — Thu, 12 Feb 2026 11:00:00 +0000

The Russian economy has been under intense pressure from sanctions, the demands of war, and structural challenges. Still, it isn’t collapsing, despite predictions and wishful thinking on the part of the West. How healthy is the Russian economy, and how much strain can it handle in 2026?

Transatlantic Tensions, the Russia Threat, and Davos, With Gideon Rachman

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Gideon Rachman, Alexander Gabuev) — Thu, 29 Jan 2026 13:19:06 +0000

This year’s World Economic Forum took place amid turbulent transatlantic relations. Donald Trump has renewed his plans for “getting” Greenland, threatening to annex part of a NATO ally. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine rages on, while the peace talks have stalled. What is the state of the European discussion on relations with the U.S.? Can Europe support Ukraine while managing its own domestic challenges and a volatile U.S. foreign policy? What are Western leaders thinking in terms of their Russia strategy?

Maduro’s Downfall, Global Oil Markets, and Russia, With Sergey Vakulenko

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Alexander Gabuev, Sergey Vakulenko) — Thu, 8 Jan 2026 14:36:07 +0000

Under Putin, Russia has established a relationship with Venezuela, and was heavily involved in the country until recent years. The Chavez and then Maduro regimes bought Russian weapons with sizeable loans from the Kremlin, Moscow ordered its energy companies to invest in Venezuelan oil fields, and Russia boasted of having secured a foothold in the U.S.’s backyard. With Trump’s swift and successful operation to arrest Maduro, the situation has changed. What are the implications for Russia’s global posture? What can the Kremlin do, and will it do anything? Will deposing Maduro lead to a situation in which Venezuelan oil floods global markets with U.S. help?

Navigating the U.S.-Russia Standoff: India’s Foreign Policy, With Pankaj Saran

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Pankaj Saran, Alexander Gabuev) — Thu, 11 Dec 2025 11:41:50 +0000

India and Russia have a mutually beneficial relationship going back decades, and since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, India’s strategic importance for Russia has grown considerably. This hasn’t gone unnoticed by the Trump administration, which has slapped additional tariffs on India for buying Russian oil. To maintain its position as an emerging global powerhouse, India must navigate not only an unpredictable U.S. foreign policy, but also a more assertive China that is exploiting Russia’s asymmetrical dependence, and a Europe that is unhappy about New Delhi’s ties to Moscow.

What Went Wrong in Russia? Russian Imperialism, With Ekaterina Schulmann and Alexander Graf Lambsdorff

Thu, 27 Nov 2025 12:02:39 +0000

Russia went from a tsarist empire and the totalitarian USSR to the freedom of the 1990s, complete with hopes of becoming a European democracy. Unfortunately, multiple missteps and reckless foreign policy endeavors have resulted in Russia becoming a security threat to Europe and its own neighbors. Two Chechen wars, the invasion of Georgia, and annexation of Crimea paved the way for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. How did it end up this way? Were there signs? What is the current state of Russian society?

How Russian Diplomacy Lost Trump, With Elizaveta Fokht

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Elizaveta Fokht, Alex Gabuev) — Thu, 13 Nov 2025 12:15:07 +0000

Russia has had a year to convince Trump to give up on Ukraine and force Zelensky to surrender, but at the end of 2025, we are yet to see any significant results from the Kremlin’s efforts. After a triumphant beginning that had Europe and Ukraine worried, and an unprecedented Anchorage summit between Putin and Trump, the situation no longer looks as favorable for Russia. The planned Budapest summit has been called off, Trump has introduced the first sanctions against Russian oil giants since returning to the White House, and the U.S. president never misses an opportunity to criticize Putin for being intransigent. What contributed to Russia’s diplomatic failure? When did Putin stop relying on his diplomats, and how did the Russian Foreign Office come to be nothing more than another source of the Kremlin’s delusion and another mouthpiece for Putin’s propaganda?

The Collapse of the Oil Empire? New U.S. Sanctions Against Russia, With Edward Fishman

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Edward Fishman, Alexander Gabuev) — Thu, 30 Oct 2025 11:00:40 +0000

After recent failures to bring the Kremlin to the negotiating table to end the war in Ukraine, Trump has adopted a new approach to Putin, taking the significant step of sanctioning Russia’s two biggest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, while also demanding that China and India stop buying Russian oil. Will this step finally persuade Putin to negotiate an end to his war? Why has it taken the United States so long to go after the two biggest cash cows in Putin’s war chest? Will these sanctions have any side effects for global markets?

How to Handle Russia’s Frozen Assets in the EU, With Robert Zoellick

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Robert Zoellick, Alexander Gabuev) — Thu, 16 Oct 2025 13:51:19 +0000

Russian assets abroad were frozen almost as soon as the country launched its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The idea of seizing those assets and transferring them to Ukraine has been discussed in Western capitals for more than three years, but no significant action has been taken because the assets are protected by sovereign immunity and the West is officially not at war with Russia. Now, with a new administration in the United States and the war of attrition in Ukraine dragging on, European leaders find themselves between a rock—the need to show unwavering support for Ukraine—and a hard place: growing public discontent at having to fund this war from European pockets, when there are billions of euros in Russian money sitting in Western bank accounts.

What would the procedure be for embarking on such a complex legal matter? What would setting such a precedent mean for the EU, the euro, and the dollar, and for the countries looking to deposit their reserves in the EU? And does Europe have a plan B if internal divisions can’t be overcome?

What to Do About Russian Drones in NATO Airspace, with Justyna Gotkowska

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Justyna Gotkowska, Alexander Gabuev) — Thu, 2 Oct 2025 10:06:10 +0000

Over the last month, there have been multiple violations of NATO airspace by Russian fighter jets and drones most likely launched by Russia. The alliance must now come up with an adequate response to this “probing” by the Kremlin and develop a sensible strategy to prevent future violations—while managing the risk of escalation. What is the Kremlin trying to achieve? How prepared is NATO to face this challenge, and what would an effective mitigation strategy look like? How will this new dynamic impact the war in Ukraine and the level of European support for Kyiv?

Putin’s War Engine: How Healthy is Russia’s Oil and Gas Industry? With Sergey Vakulenko

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Sergey Vakulenko, Alexander Gabuev) — Thu, 18 Sep 2025 11:07:19 +0000

The Russian oil and gas sector has been under significant pressure this year, but has continued to withstand sanctions. Recently, however, Ukraine has launched a series of massive drone attacks against Russian oil refineries, significantly lowering their capacity and making a noticeable dent in Russia’s horn of plenty.

At the same time, global oil prices have slumped, which further complicates Moscow’s management of budget revenues. How is Russia coping with these challenges? Is the expanded energy partnership with China providing a helping hand? And are Western hopes that the Russian war economy’s energy engine will break down in the next twelve months rooted in reality?

Better Than Ever? Russia-China Relations, with Sergey Radchenko

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Sergey Radchenko, Alexander Gabuev) — Thu, 4 Sep 2025 11:58:11 +0000

At this week’s Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping seemed determined to show the whole world that Russia-China relations are better than they have ever been. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China has become Putin’s most valuable ally, both in diplomacy and on the battlefield, providing dual-purpose technology for Moscow to continue its aggression. Are Sino-Russian relations really at their peak? What can the history of the USSR and China teach us about the nature of this union? How strong is the bond between the two?

What’s Going On Inside Belarus with Artyom Shraibman

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Artyom Shraibman, Alexander Gabuev) — Thu, 31 Jul 2025 08:00:00 +0000

Since the regime brutally crushed opposition protests in 2020, Belarus has rarely made the headlines. Some see the country as a loyal satellite of Russia, stripped of all agency, others overlook it entirely. Despite the lack of attention, though, much of significance is currently underway. In recent months, Belarus has hosted Western officials, released political prisoners, and apparently tried to distance itself from Moscow (despite allowing Russia to deploy nuclear weapons on its territory). What is happening inside Belarus? And what should Western officials understand about one of the most important pieces of the European security puzzle?

For additional insight on a possible Russia-Europe conflict, and the role of Belarus, see Artyom Shraibman's paper.

You can also read Balázs Jarábik's piece on Belarus.

Back to the Stalin Era? An Inside Look at the Russian Elites, with Farida Rustamova and Margarita Liutova

temur.umarov@ceip.org (farida rustamova, margarita liutova, alexander gabuev) — Thu, 17 Jul 2025 10:22:27 +0000

Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, life for Russia’s rich and powerful has passed the point of no return. The recent suicide of Roman Starovoit is the first case in post-Soviet Russia of a cabinet minister taking their own life when faced with an investigation and possible prison term. For many, it has brought back memories of Joseph Stalin’s purges in the 1930s. How are members of the Russian elite processing Starovoit’s death? If the old rules of the game no longer apply, are there any new rules? How will the death affect Putin’s control over his power vertical?

Check out the newsletter Fairdaily on Substack.

Alexandra Prokopenko's piece on Roman Starovoit's death.

Tatiana Stanovaya's piece on Russian elites.

What Was That? The NATO Summit 2025, with Nathaniel Reynolds

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Alexander Gabuev, Nathaniel Reynolds) — Thu, 3 Jul 2025 15:04:50 +0000

This year’s NATO summit was very unusual on multiple levels. Amid the disruption brought by Donald Trump’s presidency, and with Ukraine’s European allies adamant that continuing U.S. leadership is needed to help the embattled country at the most critical point in its defensive war against Russia, NATO members made an unprecedented commitment to spend 5% of GDP on defense by 2035. Where is NATO headed under Trump 2.0? Will its European members be able to implement the defense spending targets set in The Hague? What lessons is the Kremlin taking from the summit, and how could NATO affect Putin’s war optimism?

A Friend in Need? Decoding Russia’s Position on the Israel-Iran War, with Nicole Grajewski and Arkady Mil-Man

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Alexander Gabuev, Nicole Grajewski, Arkady Milman) — Thu, 19 Jun 2025 12:03:05 +0000

The war between Israel and Iran, Russia’s key partner in the Middle East, is entering its second week, with potential for escalation and worrisome spillover effects. Yet Moscow is not rushing to support Tehran in any meaningful way. President Vladimir Putin has even downplayed the significance of the strategic partnership agreement signed with Iran just six months ago. Instead, Putin is courting Donald Trump, offering mediation: an offer the U.S. president was quick to reject. Will there be a more heavy-handed intervention by the Kremlin to help Iran? What cards can Russia still play to remain relevant? How could the escalating conflict in the Middle East affect Russia’s strategic position, including in Ukraine?

How Stable Is the Russian War Economy? With Alexandra Prokopenko

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Alexander Gabuev, Alexandra Prokopenko) — Thu, 5 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0000

At the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Western leaders put a lot of faith in applying economic pressure to Russia, and it is now probably the most sanctioned country in the world.But despite the unprecedented sanctions tsunami, the Russian economy is yet to collapse. How long can the Kremlin maintain its ever-growing military spending and the overall economic imbalances? Will Putin be able to simultaneously finance his costly war, keep the population happy, and maintain macroeconomic stability?

For additional insight into this issue, read Alexandra Prokopenko's piece for Foreign Affairs on Putin’s trilemma: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/putin-not-yet-desperate

Calculating Russia’s Losses in Ukraine, With Mika Golubovsky and David Frenkel

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Alexander Gabuev, Mika Golubosky, David Frenkel) — Thu, 22 May 2025 14:01:49 +0000

Soon after the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia stopped publishing official data on its military losses. Despite that, analysts from independent media still manage to extract data from multiple sources, such as regional obituaries, payments, satellite images, and other open-source intelligence resources. How did Mediazona, a civil rights media outlet, become a leading source of data on Russia’s losses? How reliable is the data, and what does it tell us? Will the growing military casualties ever lead to a public backlash in Russia?

You can read Mediazona's analysis here: https://en.zona.media/article/2025/04/25/casualties_eng-trl

If you would like to support Mediazona’s work, you can make a donation here: https://donate.zona.media/en?utm_source=header-web&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=regular

Special Episode: Victory Day in Russia, with Arkady Ostrovsky

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Alexander Gabuev, Arkady Ostrovsky) — Thu, 8 May 2025 09:39:58 +0000

Russia’s Victory Day public holiday, celebrated on May 9, has undergone a major transformation in Putin’s Russia. Historically, it was a day of somber commemoration, and its main leitmotif was “Never again.” Under Putin, the holiday has become increasingly militaristic, with the memorial aspect now overshadowed by the far more belligerent slogan “We can do it again.” How did this happen, and what role does Victory Day play in the Putin regime today?

Does Ukraine Need a Ceasefire at Any Cost? With Michael Kofman

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Alexander Gabuev, Michael Kofman) — Thu, 24 Apr 2025 11:43:43 +0000

While recent diplomatic efforts to bring Ukraine and Russia to a peace deal and the unexpected Easter truce announced by Putin are bearing no fruit, the situation on the battlefield remains the most influential factor in the future trajectory of the war—including diplomatic attempts to bring the conflict to a halt. Donald Trump seems to believe that Ukraine will inevitably lose the war if a peace deal that can satisfy the Kremlin isn’t achieved. But is that really the case? What shape are Ukrainian and Russian forces in in terms of manpower, equipment, and tactics? And what are the potential scenarios for the 2025 campaign?

Trump’s Tariffs and Their Effect on Russia with Tatiana Mikhailova

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Alexander Gabuev, Tatiana Mikhailova) — Thu, 10 Apr 2025 12:33:58 +0000

When U.S. President Donald Trump announced his long list of reciprocal tariffs, many instantly noticed that one country had escaped any restrictions: Russia. Does that mean Russia is now a safe haven amid the ongoing economic storm? And what are the consequences for Moscow of a falling oil price, and the unprecedented U.S. tariffs on China, Russia's most significant trading partner?

A Deep Dive Inside Ukraine with Balazs Jarabik

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Alexander Gabuev, Balazs Jarabik) — Thu, 27 Mar 2025 12:16:45 +0000

Throughout the war, many people have been skeptical about how long Ukrainian society could hold up before inevitably collapsing under Russian pressure. After three full years of war, there are no signs of discord or the looming collapse of the unity of the Ukrainian people. After his public dressing-down by Trump in the Oval Office, Zelensky’s popularity only increased. But is the real picture more nuanced than this? What processes are unfolding right now inside Ukraine?

Can Trump Drive a Wedge Between Russia and China? With David Rennie and Yanmei Xie

temur.umarov@ceip.org (alexander gabuev, david rennie, yanmei xie) — Thu, 13 Mar 2025 16:24:15 +0000

What is the reason for the sudden change of heart in U.S. policy on Russia under the Trump administration? One theory is that Donald Trump is trying to lure Russia out of China’s sphere of influence and drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing, a move described by some as a “reverse Kissinger.” How accurate is that theory, and does the U.S. administration have the instruments needed to pry China and Russia apart?

Relationship Goals? Unpacking the Latest U.S.-Russia Talks, With Eric Green and Felicia Schwartz

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Alexander Gabuev, Eric Green, Felicia Schwartz) — Thu, 27 Feb 2025 16:19:49 +0000

With the arrival of the new administration in the White House, everyone waited with bated breath for the first executive orders regarding the war in Ukraine. The actions of President Donald Trump and his team have not only damaged the United States’ reputation, but also overall transatlantic unity and—most importantly—Ukraine's prospects of security guarantees and a lasting peace. After the latest high-profile talks in Saudi Arabia, the world has been left to ponder what it all means.

Ukraine’s Last Defender? Germany, the EU, and Russia's War, with Sophia Besch

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Alexander Gabuev, Sophia Besch) — Thu, 13 Feb 2025 11:31:37 +0000

In 2022, in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared “Zeitenwende”—a “turning point” in how Germany should think about its defense and security. As the third anniversary of the war approaches amid signs that the Trump administration wants to bring it to an end on terms favorable to Russia, Germany is yet to form a new government following the collapse of Scholz’s coalition. What does the upcoming federal election mean for Germany and its role supporting Ukraine? What changes to German and EU defense can be expected, depending on the composition of the new coalition?

Triangle of Sadness: Prospects of Trump-Putin-EU Peace Talks on Ukraine, with Eric Ciaramella

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Alexander Gabuev, Eric Ciaramella) — Thu, 30 Jan 2025 16:30:32 +0000

Since Donald Trump’s inauguration as U.S. president, ways to stop the carnage in Ukraine this year have been the subject of intense policy discussions in capitals around the world. Despite Trump’s rhetoric about ending the war swiftly and forcing Putin into a deal, there is still no clear vision of how a cessation of hostilities could be reached. Does the new team in the White House have what it takes to secure a deal that guarantees Ukraine’s sovereignty, and what is the way forward?

No Silver Bullet: The Effect of Russian Energy Sanctions, With Sergey Vakulenko and Tatiana Mitrova

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Alexander Gabuev, Tatiana Mitrova, Sergey Vakulenko) — Thu, 16 Jan 2025 10:35:54 +0000

For a long time, oil and gas sales were the Russian economy’s main source of income. Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU and U.S. have unleashed unprecedented sanctions upon the Russian energy sector. The effectiveness of this pressure is hotly debated, since Russia has proved able to continue its assault.

What is the current state of the Russian oil and gas sector? How have the last three years changed Russia’s approach to selling energy commodities, and how have developments affected the global energy market?

Check out Sergey’s piece on the Russian shadow fleet for Carnegie Politika – https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/09/russia-oil-fleet-sanctions?lang=en¢er=russia-eurasia

And Sergey’s piece for Financial Times (subject to a paywall) – https://www.ft.com/content/68403277-9cda-491c-aeeb-7dbe77850df6

Assad’s Downfall and the Consequences for Russia in the Middle East

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Alexander Gabuev, Hanna Notte, Nicole Grajewski) — Mon, 16 Dec 2024 10:54:23 +0000

Russia has had a strong military presence in Syria ever since 2015, bolstering the regime of Bashar al-Assad and pushing back the rebels. But in the space of a few days this month, the rebels were able to take major cities including Damascus and overthrow the government. Assad was forced to flee the country and seek refuge in Moscow. What does this mean for Russia, which had invested a lot of resources in Syria and used it as a bargaining chip in the power play in the Middle East? What will the fallout be from this sudden change of political climate?

Chaos Is a Ladder. Russia’s New Ballistic Threat and Its Consequences for the West.

temur.umarov@ceip.org (alexander gabuev, james acton) — Wed, 4 Dec 2024 09:46:24 +0000

After the long-awaited decision of the United States to allow the use of Western-made weapons against internationally recognized Russian territory, Russia retaliated by launching an Oreshnik missile, which it claims is a newly developed intercontinental ballistic missile. With many details about the new missile still unknown, the danger of possible nuclear escalation looms over the world, leaving decisionmakers in the West grappling with the question of how to navigate such dangerous terrain.

Host - Alex Gabuev

Guest - James Acton

Music by Liam Gordon

How Will Trump’s Presidency Influence Russia’s War Against Ukraine?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Alexander Gabuev, Alexander Baunov) — Mon, 25 Nov 2024 14:54:07 +0000

For many, the recent victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election looks like a clear win for the Kremlin. Trump has promised to stop the war in Ukraine swiftly—presumably on terms more favorable to Moscow than to Kyiv. But does the president-elect really have what it takes to convince Moscow to stop its relentless assault on Ukraine? What steps does he need to take to attempt to secure the promised peace deal? What will happen if those efforts fail?

The Dissipation of Russian Influence in Moldova

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Alexander Gabuev, Maksim Samorukov, Paula Erizanu) — Wed, 16 Oct 2024 10:00:37 +0000

Russia is using agents of influence, propaganda, vote buying, and the Orthodox Church to retain influence in Moldova. With a presidential election looming, the people of Moldova must decide whether they want to continue the EU-integration course led by President Maia Sandu, or whether to spurn it and pursue a different path, all while Russia tries to seek and invent new ways to remove agency from what it considers “a potential part of Russia.”

You can read Maksim Samorukov’s recent paper on Moldova here: https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/10/moldova-russia-strategy?lang=en¢er=russia-eurasia

Host – Alexander Gabuev

Guests – Paula Erizanu and Maksim Samorukov
Produced by Dmitrii Kuznetsov

Music by Liam Gordon

Unbalancing Act. What the 2025 Budget Says About the Russian Economy

Tue, 1 Oct 2024 10:51:05 +0000

Despite predictions that the Russian military budget had reached its peak, the recently announced 2025/26 budget shows otherwise. To keep the war machine oiled and functioning, the Russian government is once again raising military spending substantially to levels not seen since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Some in the Russian elites believe that ongoing high demand in the military industrial complex will expedite economic growth. Several miscalculations by the West and a lack of massive military achievements from Ukraine have allowed the Russian economy to withstand the pressure of sanctions. But how sustainable is the current economic strategy, and how long can Putin fund his atrocious war while damaging crucial yet vulnerable economic sectors like healthcare, education, and science?

Read Kolyandr's piece on Western sanctions for Carnegie Politika:https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/09/russia-eu-sanctions-trade?lang=en¢er=russia-eurasia

Host — Alex Gabuev

Guests — Alexandra Prokopenko, Alexander Kolyandr

Producer — Dmitrii Kuznetsov

Music by Liam Gordon

How Are Russia and Ukraine Adapting to the Kursk Incursion?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Alex Gabuev, Dara Massicot, Alexey Gusev) — Fri, 6 Sep 2024 15:10:32 +0000

In August, the Ukrainian armed forces managed to pull off an incursion into Russian territory. Unlike previous forays executed by small paramilitary groups, the incursion into Russia's Kursk region appears to be more strategic and serious. Russia was forced to retreat, leaving behind a lot of conscripts who were taken as prisoners of war by the Ukrainian army. While the operation seems to be slowing down, its long lasting consequences are still not clear. Regional governments in border regions of Russia are trying to maintain the facade of life as usual while evacuating people from the affected area.

The Kremlin, meanwhile, is looking for a way to counteract the enemy's operation and recover from such a reputational blow for a nuclear state.

NATO at 75: Ukraine, Russia, and the Future of European Security

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Mary Elise Sarotte, Alexander Gabuev) — Thu, 25 Jul 2024 13:57:09 +0000

Russia’s unjustified aggression against Ukraine has revitalized NATO, and this new energy was on display at the recent 75th anniversary summit of the alliance. While there were some long-term decisions to boost European deterrence against the Russian threat, other key questions were left unanswered. Can Ukraine become a full member of the alliance? When can this happen? The open-ended confrontation in Eastern Europe, and the risks posed by a belligerent Russia, have resulted in a situation that is more ripe for escalation than the darkest days of the Cold War.

In this episode, renowned historian Mary Elise Sarotte discusses the roots of the current crisis. Author of Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post–Cold War Stalemate, Mary Elise Sarotte is also Marie-Josée and Henry R. Kravis Distinguished Professor of Historical Studies at Johns Hopkins University. What should the U.S. and Europe do before it’s too late to help Ukraine? How are the historical cases of Norway and West Germany joining NATO relevant to Ukraine today? What can history teach us when it comes to preventing the security situation in Europe from getting even worse?

Arc of Instability: How to Survive as an “In-Between” European State

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Rosa Balfour, Thomas de Waal, Alexander Gabuev) — Thu, 4 Jul 2024 08:00:00 +0000

The war in Ukraine has left a group of “in-between” European countries more vulnerable and insecure than ever before. These countries—Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, and Serbia—find themselves in what we have termed an “arc of instability” between Russia and the European Union.

What's Happening Between Russia and North Korea?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Carnegie Politika Podcast) — Mon, 24 Jun 2024 13:29:42 +0000

Putin has visited North Korea for the first time in 24 years. The visit reflects the two countries' deepening alignment amid Pyongyang's active support for Russia's aggression against Ukraine. Andrei Lankov provides insights into the signals being exchanged between Moscow and Pyongyang, and addresses the question of whether a real alliance might be on the cards.

What Impact Will Russia's New Defense Minister Have in Ukraine?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Carnegie Politika Podcast) — Mon, 20 May 2024 12:46:42 +0000

Following his fifth presidential inauguration, Russian President Vladimir Putin has approved a new government. The most significant change is to the Defense Ministry, which will now be led by Andrei Belousov, a Keynesian economist and former deputy prime minister. Coming amid the ongoing war in Ukraine and notable arrests within the Defense Ministry, the reshuffle has prompted questions about Kremlin priorities.

What will Belousov's first moves as defense minister be? How will his predecessor Sergei Shoigu’s role evolve, and how might it impact the frontline in Ukraine?

Is Putin Prioritizing Regime Survival Over Fighting Terrorism?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Carnegie Politika Podcast) — Mon, 22 Apr 2024 14:53:37 +0000

Responsibility for the March 22 terrorist attack at the Crocus City concert hall has been claimed by the Afghanistan-based Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K), and most of the suspects are migrants from Tajikistan. Yet Russian authorities remain steadfast in their insistence that Ukraine and "Western forces" orchestrated the indiscriminate murder of over 140 people. What does this fixation on Ukraine signify for Russia’s regime stability? Is there genuine conviction within Putin’s inner circle that Ukraine masterminded the attack? And what real threats does Russia face from radicalization in Central Asia?

Is Western Apathy Trapping Belarus in Russia's Embrace?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Carnegie Politika Podcast) — Tue, 16 Apr 2024 13:02:36 +0000

Four years ago, Belarus reached a point of no return in its delicate balancing act between Russia and the West. Desperate for support, Alexander Lukashenko's regime has become increasingly reliant on Moscow since 2020. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has further solidified Belarus's position as a close satellite state. What does this mean for the future of Belarus? What roles do Lukashenko and the Belarusian elite play? And how should the West re-evaluate its approach to Belarus in light of these circumstances?

Post-Election Russia Resembles the Soviet Union

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Carnegie Politika Podcast) — Fri, 22 Mar 2024 13:09:51 +0000

Russia’s presidential election this month shattered all previous records, with president Putin "securing" an unprecedented 87.3 percent of the vote. The critical question now is: how will Putin’s re-election be perceived, both domestically and internationally? Is he a legitimate leader in the eyes of Russians and the global community?

Podcast: Navalny's Legacy for the Russian Opposition

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Carnegie Politika Podcast) — Tue, 20 Feb 2024 17:25:38 +0000

The sudden death of the jailed Russian opposition leader was a shock, though it was not unexpected. For the last decade, Navalny had been the most vocal critic and opponent of Putin's regime, while his Anti-Corruption Foundation had supporters in almost all Russian regions and cities. Only Navalny was able to consolidate people across Russia in waves of protests against corruption and the authoritarian regime. What impact has Navalny's death had on Russian society and the opposition movement? What is Navalny's legacy? Is there any other person inside or outside Russia who can lead the opposition to Putin's regime now?

What’s the Secret of the Russian Economy’s Resilience?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Alexander Gabuev, Alexandra Prokopenko) — Thu, 14 Dec 2023 08:50:08 +0000

The Western sanctions imposed against Russia in response to its full-blown invasion of Ukraine were not just designed to put a cost on Moscow’s actions, but also to stem the flow of materials and money enabling it to wage war. Why did this hope fall short, and how is Putin’s wartime economy faring as we approach 2024 and the second anniversary of the invasion? What do we know of the current state of the Russian economy, and what indicators can we use to plot its trajectory?

Learned Indifference: How Russian Society Has Gotten Used to War

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Alexander Gabuev, Denis Volkov, Andrei Kolesnikov) — Wed, 29 Nov 2023 11:22:01 +0000

Since Russia launched its "special military operation" against Ukraine, Russian society has adapted to living amid conflict. Despite initial predictions that public outrage would topple the regime, the majority of Russians have consolidated around the Kremlin, viewing it as a defender against a perceived threat from the West.

How accurate are wartime opinion polls? How have the dynamics of support for the war in Russia changed during the past year? Which events have changed public perceptions in Russia over the last 18 months? What needs to happen in 2024 to bring about a change in these perceptions?

What Does Russia Stand to Gain From the Israel-Hamas War?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Alexander Gabuev, Hanna Notte) — Thu, 9 Nov 2023 13:20:07 +0000

It's been more than a month since Hamas attacked Israel, reigniting the Middle East crisis once again and switching the focus of other political players to the region. Is Russia benefiting from the escalation in the conflict? How is it affecting the war in Ukraine? And what are the long-term consequences for Russia's position as a global player in the Middle East?

What Does the Post-Prigozhin Russian Regime Look Like?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Alexander Gabuev, Liza Fokht, Joshua Yaffa) — Thu, 7 Sep 2023 13:35:13 +0000

Just two months ago, Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the infamous Wagner mercenary army, dominated global headlines after his short-lived mutiny against the Russian military and political leadership. Until recently, Prigozhin was considered a leading Russian politician, with some even believing he could rival President Vladimir Putin. Yet his highly suspicious death did not spark any outrage or visible consequences within Russia. What was behind the Prigozhin phenomenon? What does his untimely death mean for Russia’s political elites? And what will Putin’s regime look like now that Prigozhin is gone?

The Vilnius Summit: A Turning Point for NATO and Ukraine

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Alexander Gabuev, Sophia Besch, Eric Ciaramello) — Thu, 20 Jul 2023 15:04:32 +0000

Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Sophia Besch, a fellow at the Carnegie Europe Program, and Eric Ciaramello, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Program, to discuss the outcomes of the NATO summit in Vilnius.

The recent NATO summit in Vilnius is being labeled by many as a historic moment for the future of European security, and Ukraine's in particular. What were the summit's key results? How will the accession of Sweden to the alliance change the security role of the Baltic Sea? And is the plan for future NATO accession enough to satisfy Ukrainian society?

Is the End in Sight in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Thomas de Waal, Anna Ohanyan, Alex Gabuev) — Fri, 5 May 2023 14:37:21 +0000

Alex Gabuev is joined by Tom de Waal, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, and Anna Ohanyan, a nonresident senior scholar at Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia program, to discuss developments in and around the contested region of Nagorno-Karabakh. As the long-running conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh appears to be inching toward a resolution, is the new political reality accepted in Armenia? What does Azeri President Ilham Aliyev hope to achieve? How will the failure of Russian peacekeepers to intervene in recent developments affect the relationship between Moscow and Yerevan? Is the rivalry between competing Western and Russian resolution tracks an asset or a hindrance? And how will an eventual resolution impact on the political systems of Armenia and Azerbaijan?

What’s Behind Xi Jinping’s Visit to Moscow?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Vita Spivak, Yanmei Xie, Alex Gabuev) — Fri, 24 Mar 2023 14:50:13 +0000

Why did Xi Jinping choose to visit Moscow at a time when Russia has been ostracized by the global community for its invasion of Ukraine? Did both sides get what they wanted from the visit? Has Russia resigned itself to being the junior partner in this burgeoning relationship? What is China’s agenda in putting forward a peace plan for Ukraine? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Yanmei Xie, a geopolitics analyst at Gavekal Research, and Vita Spivak, an analyst at Control Risks and non-resident senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Who’s Winning the Energy War Between Russia and the West?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Sergei Vakulenko, Alex Gabuev) — Tue, 21 Feb 2023 12:08:09 +0000

Podcast host Alexander Gabuev and Sergei Vakulenko, a new non-resident senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, discuss the energy dimension of the ongoing battle between Russia and the West. How successful was Russia’s plan to wreak economic havoc in Europe by choking gas supplies? Can Europe breathe a sigh of relief, or will Russian energy blackmail still a be threat next winter? How effective have Western energy sanctions been in cutting off the cash flow for the Kremlin’s war machine? And what impact has the war in Ukraine had on the green agenda, both in Russia and beyond? Read Vakulenko's piece on how Russian oil companies defied sanctions and paid less tax here: https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/89052

What Next in Russia’s War Against Ukraine?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Mark Galeotti, Dara Massicot, Alex Gabuev) — Tue, 31 Jan 2023 13:49:59 +0000

Podcast host Alexander Gabuev discusses what the next few months may have in store together with Dara Massicot, senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, and Mark Galeotti, CEO of Mayak Intelligence. As the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine approaches, Ukraine is set to receive Western battle tanks, while Russia is believed to be planning a new offensive. What military developments can we expect to see in the next few months? What impact will the Western tanks have on Ukraine’s capabilities, and why has the West only agreed to supply them now? What do the changes in the military leadership mean for Russia’s campaign? And who is really dictating Russia’s aims and tactics in this war?

Watching Russia From Afar

temur.umarov@ceip.org (Alex Gabuev, Sergei Guriev, Polina Ivanova) — Thu, 15 Dec 2022 15:16:26 +0000

As we relaunch our Russia-focused podcast under the Carnegie Politika brand, FT correspondent Polina Ivanova and economist-in-exile Sergei Guriev join podcast host Alexander Gabuev to discuss how access to both data and sources has changed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and whether people inside the Russian government itself also have a poorer understanding of the broader picture as a result of the same changes.

What’s Happening in Kazakhstan?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (CarnegiePolitika.org) — Thu, 20 Jan 2022 15:30:09 +0000

This podcast episode focuses on the recent upheaval in Kazakhstan and what to expect moving forward. What and who was behind the recent unrest in Kazakhstan? What was the role of Russia? What will become of former president Nursultan Nazarbayev’s family, and what are the implications for other former Soviet countries? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Assel Tutumlu, an assistant professor at the Near East University, and Temur Umarov, a fellow at Carnegie Moscow Center.

Can Digital Sovereignty Ever Be More Than a Myth in Russia?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (CarnegiePolitika.org) — Mon, 13 Dec 2021 14:28:56 +0000

What are the roots and drivers of the digital sovereignty narrative in Russian politics? Is there any Russian alternative to foreign 5G technology? How successful is Moscow’s import substitution policy in telecom hardware and software? Is the specter of sanctions against 5G equipment and other civilian telecom software a real threat, or a myth spread by scaremongers? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Janis Kluge, a senior associate with the SWP research facility in Berlin, and Alena Epifanova, a research fellow at DGAP—also in Berlin—to discuss the ideas of digital sovereignty and a sovereign internet, and the challenges to those concepts.

China’s Nuclear Expansion

temur.umarov@ceip.org (CarnegiePolitika.org) — Wed, 1 Dec 2021 12:55:57 +0000

What are the driving forces and goals behind China’s nuclear build-up? Should the ongoing U.S.-Russian arms control talks take into account Chinese progress? And does China’s refusal to take part in those talks render them meaningless? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Tong Zhao, a senior fellow in Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program, and Elena Chernenko, a special correspondent at Kommersant to discuss China’s plans for its nuclear arsenal.

What’s the Kremlin's Strategy on the European Energy Crunch?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (CarnegiePolitika.org) — Fri, 19 Nov 2021 12:54:46 +0000

Is the German regulator’s suspension of the certification process for Nord Stream 2 technical, or political? Why isn’t Gazprom cashing in while prices are so high, by sending additional gas to Europe? How does the Russian gas giant plan to deal with the global green energy transition?

Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Katja Yafimava, a senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, and Sergei Kapitonov, a gas analyst at the energy center of the Skolkovo School of Management, to discuss the European gas crisis and Russia’s role in it.

How Has Coronavirus Transformed International Relations and Russia’s Foreign Policy?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (CarnegiePolitika.org) — Fri, 29 Oct 2021 12:59:39 +0000

The pandemic has failed to bring geopolitical rivals together, but has it created new divisions, or merely amplified existing disagreements? And have any lessons been learned for dealing with other global challenges, like climate change? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Kadri Liik, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, and Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, to examine how the COVID-19 pandemic became a new frontline in Russia’s competition with the West.

Dissecting the State Duma Elections

temur.umarov@ceip.org (CarnegiePolitika.org) — Fri, 24 Sep 2021 16:31:17 +0000

Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Elizaveta Fokht, a reporter with the BBC Russian Service, and Andrew Roth, Moscow correspondent for The Guardian, to discuss the outcome of the recent elections for the State Duma. Will the entrance of new parties into the Duma make life difficult for the Kremlin? Why have we seen no real protest movement this time around, despite considerable evidence of electoral fraud? Were there any new voting trends in terms of demographics? And will the pressure on civil society be dialed down now that the elections are over?

What Are the Implications of the Afghanistan Crisis for Central Asia?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (CarnegiePolitika.org) — Fri, 10 Sep 2021 21:10:35 +0000

Nargis Kassenova, a senior fellow at the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies’ program on Central Asia, and Temur Umarov, a research consultant at Carnegie Moscow Center, join podcast host Alexander Gabuev to discuss how Central Asian governments have reacted to the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, what their priorities are, and whether any of them might be prepared to facilitate U.S. military operations in the region from their own territory.

A Closer Look at Russia’s New National Security Strategy

temur.umarov@ceip.org (CarnegiePolitika.org) — Thu, 22 Jul 2021 15:55:17 +0000

How does the latest version of Russia’s National Security Strategy differ from the last one, released in 2015? Does the inclusion in it of environmental issues mean that this is finally a priority for Russia? Why does the strategy fail to address the growing rivalry between China and the United States? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, and Anastasia Likhacheva, director of HSE’s Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies.

Where Will the Crackdown in Belarus End?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (CarnegiePolitika.org) — Fri, 4 Jun 2021 13:52:21 +0000

“Repression is spreading like gas in a room: as long as there’s space there, it’s going to expand.”

What’s Alexander Lukashenko’s game plan in Belarus? Could the West have done more when protests broke out last year, and does it have any tools to impact the situation there now? Is there any alternative to Lukashenko that would be acceptable to Russia, or is any future regime now destined to be anti-Russian? Artyom Shraibman, a non-resident scholar at Carnegie Moscow Center, and Sabine Fischer, a senior fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Studies, join podcast host Alex Gabuev to discuss events in Belarus.

What’s the Point of the Latest U.S. Sanctions Against Russia?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (CarnegiePolitika.org) — Fri, 30 Apr 2021 13:37:06 +0000

Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Andrey Movchan, a nonresident scholar in the Economic Policy Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center, and Maria Shagina, a postdoctoral fellow at the Center for Eastern European Studies at the University of Zurich, to discuss the impact of Western sanctions on the Russian economy.

After eight years of Western sanctions, has the Russian economy suffered substantially as a result? Do the latest U.S. sanctions in fact show that Washington is ready to turn the page? How successful has Russia’s import substitution been? And how far do sanctions actually play into the Kremlin’s hands at home?

Russia and the Indo-Pacific

temur.umarov@ceip.org (CarnegiePolitika.org) — Wed, 31 Mar 2021 18:48:43 +0000

In the wake of the first summit of the Quad countries (the United States, Japan, Australia, and India), this episode of the podcast focuses on the grouping’s scope, its cooperation with other nations, Russia’s significance in the region, and whether the rapprochement between Moscow and Beijing is impacting the long-established relationship between Russia and India. Featuring podcast host Alex Gabuev; Darshana Baruah, an associate fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; and Michito Tsuruoka, an associate professor at Keio University in Tokyo.

Has Russia’s COVID Vaccine Gotten Lost In Politics?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (CarnegiePolitika.org) — Tue, 30 Mar 2021 16:34:13 +0000

Is Russia’s Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine as successful as the Kremlin claims? Are political considerations really preventing it from getting approval in Western countries? Why is the vaccination rate so low in Russia, and why didn’t Putin get vaccinated sooner? Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Henry Foy, Moscow bureau chief of the Financial Times, and Polina Ivanova, a special correspondent for Reuters in Moscow, to discuss these questions and other vaccine-related topics.

Is There Any Hope for Russia-Japan Relations Without Abe?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (CarnegiePolitika.org) — Thu, 18 Mar 2021 18:07:06 +0000

How will Russian-Japanese relations be affected by the departure of Japan’s longtime prime minister, Shinzo Abe? What drove his policy of active engagement of Russia, and will that policy continue under his successor? What potential remains for cooperation? Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Taisuke Abiru to discuss these issues and more.

What's Europe’s Strategy for Managing China and Russia?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (CarnegiePolitika.org) — Fri, 26 Feb 2021 15:01:25 +0000

Alex Gabuev is joined by Janka Oertel, director of the Asia program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, to discuss changing attitudes in Europe toward China and Russia, and the evolving relationship between Moscow and Beijing.

Managing the Great-Power Competition Between Russia and the U.S.

temur.umarov@ceip.org (CarnegiePolitika.org) — Fri, 5 Feb 2021 14:52:36 +0000

What are the main risks from the current state of competition between Moscow and Washington? Is there a pragmatic agenda on which both sides are interested in cooperating? What tools can be used to safely manage this great-power competition? Carnegie Moscow Center director Dmitri Trenin and Thomas Graham, a distinguished fellow at the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations, join podcast host Alexander Gabuev to discuss how relations could be reimagined.

Trenin and Graham's joint commentary on the same topic can be found here:https://carnegie.ru/commentary/83432

Are Russia’s Protests a Serious Threat to the Kremlin?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (CarnegiePolitika.org) — Fri, 29 Jan 2021 16:58:05 +0000

How significant are the mass protests that swept Russia last Saturday and look set to be repeated this weekend? Has the Kremlin lost the battle for people's minds? And how much are these protests really about the opposition leader Alexei Navalny? Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Arkady Ostrovsky, Russia editor at The Economist.

Central Asia: Between China and Russia

temur.umarov@ceip.org (CarnegiePolitika.org) — Mon, 28 Dec 2020 17:21:24 +0000

Will China be able to replace Russia as a security provider in Central Asia? What does China bring to the region that Russia has not, and what role is there for Europe and the West there? Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by his Carnegie colleague Temur Umarov and Niva Yau Tsz Yan, a Eurasia Program fellow at the U.S. Foreign Policy Research Institute.

How Has Coronavirus Altered the Debate on Digital Surveillance?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (CarnegiePolitika.org) — Tue, 15 Dec 2020 17:12:57 +0000

Has the hyping of foreign cyber influence in recent years overshadowed the need to address domestic disinformation? What would a democratic alliance on data regulation look like, and what should its core principles be? Is there a place for authoritarian countries like Russia in that alliance? Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Marietje Schaake, international policy director at Stanford University’s Cyber Policy Center to explore these issues.

What (If Anything) Does Russia Expect From Biden?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (CarnegiePolitika.org) — Tue, 24 Nov 2020 14:44:14 +0000

Most new U.S. administrations are greeted with hopes for a new era in U.S.-Russian relations, but does anyone in Russia expect anything positive to come of a Biden presidency? Will a more predictable White House mean fewer or more sanctions against Russia? Elena Chernenko, a special correspondent for Kommersant, and Andrew Weiss, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment, join podcast host Alexander Gabuev to discuss what the next U.S. administration will mean for Russia.

What’s In Store for North Korea After U.S. Elections?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (CarnegiePolitika.org) — Thu, 29 Oct 2020 09:31:05 +0000

It’s been relatively quiet on the Korean Peninsula for the past two years, but is this the calm before the storm? What will North Korea do to ensure it remains a U.S. foreign policy priority if Joe Biden wins the U.S. election? What impact has the coronavirus pandemic had on Kim Jong Un’s regime? And how have North Korea’s relations with China gone from rock bottom to best of friends in just three years? Carnegie’s English-language podcast host Alex Gabuev talks to Myong-Hyun Go, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, about where North Korea is headed.

Tipping Point in the Karabakh Crisis: What Next?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (CarnegiePolitika.org) — Thu, 15 Oct 2020 10:36:13 +0000

If diplomacy fails to end the unfolding humanitarian catastrophe in Nagorno-Karabakh, what’s next for the troubled region? Turkey escalated the conflict; now can it be the one to deescalate it? And will Turkey’s intervention affect Russian-Turkish cooperation in other parts of the world? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev discusses these questions and more with Tom de Waal, a senior fellow with Carnegie Europe and expert on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and Sinan Ülgen, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe.

What Does the Future Hold for Belarus?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (CarnegiePolitika.org) — Thu, 1 Oct 2020 17:00:51 +0000

Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Yevgeny Preigerman, founder and director of the Minsk Dialogue Council on International Relations; Nataliya Vasilyeva, Moscow correspondent for The Telegraph; and Oksana Antonenko, director of the Global Political Risk team at the UK-based Control Risk consultancy and a member of the EU-Russia Expert Network on Foreign Policy (EUREN). They discuss the violent crackdown on protests in Belarus and its consequences, Lukashenko’s long-term prospects, whether the opposition can possibly win, the role of Russia and the West in the ongoing protests, and more.

Russian Foreign Policy in a Post-Pandemic World

temur.umarov@ceip.org (CarnegiePolitika.org) — Fri, 10 Jul 2020 15:13:07 +0000

The coronavirus pandemic has only intensified the rivalry between the United States and China, hastening the advent of a new era of bipolarity. How can Russia maintain equilibrium and avoid being drawn into the U.S.-China confrontation as a junior partner of China? Will the collapse of oil prices and subsequent loss of revenue force Russia to rein in its ambitious foreign policy of recent years? Are there renewed hopes for progress in the Donbas peace talks? And will the Kremlin finally be forced to turn its focus to domestic affairs? Carnegie Moscow Center director Dmitri Trenin and Elena Chernenko, a special correspondent at the Kommersant publishing house, join podcast host Alexander Gabuev to discuss these issues and more.

How Effective Is Digital Surveillance In the Fight Against the Coronavirus?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (CarnegiePolitika.org) — Fri, 17 Apr 2020 13:50:47 +0000

China deployed an array of digital surveillance tools as part of its response to the coronavirus outbreak. Russia is trying to use similar technology but with mixed results. The rapid embrace of such tools is sparking an international debate about the impact on privacy and the need for protections and oversight. In this episode of the Carnegie Moscow Center podcast, Alex Gabuev discusses how digital surveillance tools and facial recognition technologies are being used in the post-Soviet space in the age of COVID-19 with China watcher Leonid Kovachich; Paul Stronski, a senior fellow in the Carnegie Endowment’s Russia and Eurasia Program; and Steven Feldstein, a nonresident fellow in the Carnegie Endowment's Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program.

How Deep Are China's Roots in Russia's Far East?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (CarnegiePolitika.org) — Tue, 14 Apr 2020 18:38:38 +0000

Russia-China relations get a lot of coverage in Moscow, but what’s the view from Vladivostok in Russia’s Far East? Carnegie’s Alex Gabuev talks to Ivan Zuenko, an expert on the Sino-Russian relationship, about the real scale of the Chinese presence in Russia’s Far East, attitudes among both Chinese and Russian people to one another, the Belt and Road initiative, and more.

This is a joint episode with Evan Feigenbaum's China Local/Global podcast: https://soundcloud.com/carnegie-audio/asia-localglobal-ivan-zuenko

Coronavirus and the Battlefields of the US-China Trade War

temur.umarov@ceip.org (CarnegiePolitika.org) — Tue, 3 Mar 2020 16:42:07 +0000

Could Coronavirus actually be a boost for the Chinese government? Is it better to be spied on by China or the United States? Is Russia really serious about its pivot to Asia? Carnegie’s Alex Gabuev and The Financial Times’ Asia editor Jamil Anderlini discuss the impact of Coronavirus on the Russian economy, how the virus is influencing the ongoing US-China trade war, and how events in Asia affect the choices European countries are making.

What's It Like to Be a Foreign Correspondent in Russia?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (CarnegiePolitika.org) — Fri, 31 Jan 2020 16:05:46 +0000

In this episode of the Carnegie Moscow Center podcast, host Alex Gabuev talks to two foreign correspondents currently based in Moscow. Robyn Dixon recently returned to Russia as head of the Washington Post Moscow bureau, having previously worked here for eight years through 2003. Our other guest is Max Seddon of the Financial Times, who has been working in Russia since 2012. Together they discuss what it's like to be a foreign journalist in Moscow, what has changed in the last 20 years, the differences in reporting from China and Russia, and how to deliver the most accurate and least biased story from Russia under the current circumstances.

Is Russia Late to the Chinese Gas Market Party?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (CarnegiePolitika.org) — Mon, 30 Dec 2019 14:45:42 +0000

In December, Gazprom launched its 8,000-km Power of Siberia gas pipeline to China. Sergei Kapitonov, an energy analyst at the Skolkovo School of Management, talks to Carnegie Moscow Center's Alexander Gabuev about the timing of the launch and the prospects and risks of delivering Russian gas to a single buyer.

Five Years After Crimea, How Is Russian Trade Doing?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (CarnegiePolitika.org) — Wed, 20 Nov 2019 13:39:24 +0000

Changes in foreign trade—the backbone of economic prosperity for Putin’s Russia—reflect the giant shifts in Moscow’s relations with the outside world. Five years after the annexation of Crimea, Russia is moving away from the West and trading less with the EU, while increasing the share of its trade with Asia, in particular with China. Alex Gabuev, a senior fellow and chair of the Russia in the Asia-Pacific program at the Carnegie Moscow Center, examines the implications of this for Russia, the EU, and the Eurasian Economic Union with podcast guests Tatiana Flegontova, deputy head of the Institute for International Economics and Finance, and Dr. Janis Kluge, a senior associate at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

How Is Russia's Pivot to Asia Working Out?

temur.umarov@ceip.org (CarnegiePolitika.org) — Wed, 30 Oct 2019 16:22:18 +0000

In September 2014, following the annexation of Crimea, the outbreak of war in the Donbas, and the introduction of the first Western sanctions against Russia, the Kremlin announced a "pivot to Asia." Five years on, what's the outcome of this policy? Have Russia and China really formed a new, much stronger partnership? Alex Gabuev, a senior fellow and chair of the Russia in the Asia-Pacific program at the Carnegie Moscow Center, sat down to discuss just that with Vita Spivak, head of analytical projects at the Expert creative agency.