How has China approached energy security, and how might the current conflict reshape this strategy? To discuss these issues, we are joined today by Dr. Erica Downs. Erica is a Senior Research Scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs. Her research focuses on Chinese energy markets and geopolitics, and she has published extensively on the subject.

Timestamps:

[00:00] Introduction 
[01:38] China’s Energy Security Strategy
[03:54] Divergent Approaches to Energy Security in the US and China
[06:03] Beijing’s Response to Supply Chain Shocks 
[09:55] Dependencies on Russian Oil & Gas
[12:33] New Lessons for Chinese Policymakers?
[15:30] Impact on Teapot Refineries and Responses
[18:37] Percentage of Chinese Oil and Gas Impacted
[22:26] Could China Buy Gas from the US?
[25:15] Potential Wins and Losses for Chinese Industries

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Paris later this week to explore possible outcomes that could be announced during the Beijing summit. Planning for such a major summit usually takes place over several months, and is getting underway quite late, causing many observers to question whether anything meaningful can be achieved.

In the meantime, the US is distracted by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East between Iran and a US-Israel coalition. To discuss the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, we're joined today by Dr. Da Wei. He is director of the Center for International Security and Strategy and professor of International Relations at Qinghua University.

Timestamps:

[00:00] Introduction
[01:40] The Status of US-China Relations
[03:07] Middle East War Impact on the Bilateral Relationship
[05:36] Rethinking the US Decline in Chinese Foreign Policy
[08:23] Chinese and US Sources of Leverage
[13:01] Beijing’s Goals for the Trump-Xi Summit
[19:52] New Language for Taiwan 
[30:12] Expanding Chinese Investment in the US?  
[32:03] Potential for US-China Cooperation on Iran?
[35:54] Implications of Military Officer Purges 

To unpack China-Iran relations and these recent dynamics, we are joined today by Jonathan Fulton. Jonathan is a nonresident senior fellow with the Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council and an associate professor of political science at Zayed University in Abu Dhabi. His research focuses on China-GCC relations, China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and Chinese foreign policy. 

This episode was recorded on February 26, 2026.  

Timestamps: 

[00:00] Introduction  
[01:33] China’s Interests in Iran and Possible Reactions 
[04:55] Challenges to Diversifying Oil Imports  
[09:40] Using Oil Purchases as Leverage with the US 
[10:59] Frictions in the China-Iran Relationship 
[12:41] Iran in China’s Middle East Strategy 
[16:00] Iran–China 25-year Cooperation Program  
[21:56] China-Russia Coordination in Iran Strategy 
[25:54] Tehran's Points of Leverage with Beijing and Moscow 
[29:14] Potential Disruptors to the China-Iran Relationship 

To recap, the study considered two scenarios that could take place in the next five years. In the first scenario, a minor skirmish escalates into a multi-week maritime blockade of Taiwan by China. Although several dozen members of the Chinese and Taiwanese military are killed, U.S. intervention eventually forces China to de-escalate.  In the second scenario, a conflict escalates into a full-fledged invasion, with Chinese strikes on not only Taiwan but also U.S. forces in Japan and Guam. After several months of heavy fighting, Chinese forces are degraded and eventually withdraw after suffering many tens of thousands of casualties.

Our guests today are Charlie Vest and Logan Wright, who co-authored the chapter on the implications for the Chinese economy of a failed operation against Taiwan. Logan is a partner at Rhodium Group and leads the firm’s work on China’s economy and its global impact. Charlie is an associate director at Rhodium Group, where he manages corporate research and advisory work on China.

Timestamps:

[00:00] Introduction
[02:34] Key Takeaways: China’s Ambitions vs. Economic Realities 
[05:41] The Escalation Dilemma in China's Decisionmaking
[09:56] Immediate Disruptions to Trade and FDI
[13:52] Gray-Zone Military Engagement and Political Pressures
[16:48] Could Beijing Underestimate the Costs of US Intervention? 
[24:12] Policy Tools and Limitations for Economic Stabilization and Recovery
[27:19] Long-Term Economic Effects
[29:24] Impact of Social Instability

To recap, the study considered two scenarios occurring in the next five years. In the first scenario, a minor skirmish escalated into a multi-week maritime blockade of Taiwan by China. Although several dozen members of the Chinese and Taiwanese military were killed, US intervention eventually forced China to de-escalate.  In the second scenario, a conflict escalated into a full-fledged invasion, with Chinese strikes on not only Taiwan but also US forces in Japan and Guam. After several months of heavy fighting, Chinese forces were degraded and eventually withdrew after suffering many tens of thousands of casualties. 

Joining us today are Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Jake Rinaldi. Sheena is an associate professor at the University of Texas at Austin and visiting research faculty at the US Army War College. Jake is an associate political scientist at the RAND Corporation.

Timestamps: 
[00:00] Introduction  
[02:11] Why This Matters to US Policymakers 
[04:37] Managing Social Stability During Conflict with Taiwan  
[08:01] How the CCP Identifies and Suppresses Sources of Instability
[10:44] Social Stability Organizations and Institutions  
[15:06] Domestic Pressures & Potential Party Responses 
[19:00] Estimating Public Support for Reunification 
[23:09] Scenario 3: Protracted Conventional Conflict 
[26:55] Lessons Learned from COVID Lockdowns 
[31:28] Long-Term Implications for Stability Post-Conflict 

GMF commissioned four papers on these key areas. We considered two scenarios that could realistically take place in the next five years. In the first scenario, a minor skirmish escalated into a multi-week maritime blockade of Taiwan by China. Although several dozen members of the Chinese and Taiwanese military were killed, US intervention eventually forced China to de-escalate.  In the second scenario, a conflict escalated into a full-fledged invasion, with Chinese strikes on not only Taiwan but also U.S. forces in Japan and Guam. After several months of heavy fighting, Chinese forces were degraded and eventually withdrew after suffering many tens of thousands of casualties.

The authors found that the costs to China of a failed military action against Taiwan would likely be considerable. We believe their findings are important and warrant wide dissemination. In this podcast, we’ll discuss the report’s major conclusions and implications. Then we’ll talk about the potential impact of a failed Chinese attempt to take Taiwan on China’s military capabilities and the possible international costs that Beijing could face.  Our next two China Global podcasts will examine the implications of a failed military operation against Taiwan for China’s economy and social stability.

Our guests today are Zack Cooper and Joel Wuthnow. Zack is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and lecturer at Princeton University.  Joel is a senior research fellow in the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs within the Institute for National Strategic Studies at NDU. Joel’s paper and this interview reflect only his personal views and not those of the National Defense University, the Department of War, or the US government.

Timestamps: 
[00:00] Introduction  
[03:22] Implications for China, the United States, and Taiwan 
[06:31] Actions to Strengthen Deterrence  
[08:50] Evaluating Costs and Risks for Chinese Decisionmakers
[11:46] Lessons Learned for the PLA 
[14:05] Steps to Avoid Another Attack 
[17:14] Intensifying Frictions between Party and Military?  
[19:53] Anticipating US Intervention as a Military Variable 
[22:49] Countries and Organizations Likely to Respond to China
[25:55] Potential Diplomatic Actions and Costs
[31:50] A Treaty Alliance with Taiwan 
[34:44] Why International Costs Matter to China

On December 10, China released a new white paper on its relationship with Latin America and the Caribbean, the third such document following earlier editions in 2008 and 2016. The White Paper characterizes the region as “an essential force in the process toward a multipolar world and economic globalization.” Its release came on the heels of the Trump Administration’s release of its National Security Strategy, which places unprecedented emphasis on the Western Hemisphere and asserts that the US seeks a region “free of hostile foreign incursion or ownership of key assets,” highlighting the growing strategic salience of Latin America and the Caribbean in US-China competition.  

To discuss the new White Paper and the implications of China’s policies in the LAC for the United States and US-China relations, we are joined by Dr. Evan Ellis. Dr. Ellis is a research professor of Latin American studies at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. He previously served on the Secretary of State’s policy planning staff with responsibility for Latin America and the Caribbean as well as international narcotics and law enforcement issues.

Timestamps:
[00:00] Introduction
[02:07] US and China on a Collision Course? 
[04:50] Chinese Priorities in Latin America 
[08:33] U.S. Security Risks from Chinese Port Investments
[11:45] How China Uses CELAC to Advance Its Agenda
[14:27] How Latin Americans View China’s Growing Presence
[17:22] Honduras and the Republic of China
[21:22] How Beijing Might Address U.S. Concerns 
[25:09] China's Reaction to US and Venezuela 
 

Joining us today to discuss the latest episode in China-Japan relations is Professor Akio Takahara. Professor Takahara is a Distinguished Visiting Professor at Tokyo Woman’s Christian University and an Emeritus Professor at the University of Tokyo. He is also an Honorary Senior Fellow on Chinese Politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis.

Timestamps:
[00:00] Introduction
[02:07] The State of China-Japan Relations Pre-Dispute
[02:49] Beijing’s Reaction and Intended Audience
[05:42] Continuity in Takaichi’s Stance 
[10:31] Why a Chinese Takeover of Taiwan is Existential to Japan 
[13:03] China’s Signals and Restraint
[16:30] Recommendations for De-escalation
[19:18] Senkaku Islands Dispute in Connection to Taiwan Dispute
[22:04] Beijing’s Potential Claims on Okinawa
[24:23] View in Japan of the US Reaction
[26:36] Takaichi’s Support in Japan

On this episode of China Global, we have two Commissioners joining us to discuss the report, Commissioner Aaron Friedberg and Commissioner Mike Kuiken. Commissioner Friedberg is Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University and co-director of its Center for International Security Studies. He is also a non-resident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, counselor to the National Bureau of Asian Research, and previously served as Vice President Dick Cheney’s Deputy Assistant for National Security Affairs.

Commissioner Kuiken is a Distinguished Visiting Fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution and advisor to the Special Competitive Studies Project. He has over 20 years of experience shaping US national security policy, including 12 years on the Senate Armed Services Committee. 

Timestamps:
[00:00] Intro
[1:47] China’s Role in the Axis of Autocracy
[03:22] Best Response from US and Allies?
[05:23] The Interlocking Innovation Flywheels Effect
[07:47] Made in China 2025 Plan: 10 Years Later
[10:25] Why Does Chinese Dominance Matter?  
[12:39] Policy Prescriptions for the US
[16:24] Lessons Learned from China Shock 1.0 and Preparing for 2.0
[21:09] Bipartisan Political Will on China Policy
[24:06] Taiwan as a Vital Interest to the US
[28:06] Assuaging Taiwanese Doubts in Congress
[30:17] Taiwan’s Defense Spending Debate  

Today’s episode focuses on the Trump-Xi summit and the future of US-China relations, featuring Mr. Dennis Wilder. Dennis is a senior fellow for the Initiative for U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues at Georgetown University, where he previously served as the managing director, and assistant professor of the practice in Asian studies in the School of Foreign Service. He served on President George W. Bush’s NSC first as director for China and then as senior director for Asian Affairs. He also had a distinguished career in the CIA, where he held many positions, the last of which was senior editor of the Presidential Daily Brief. 

Timestamps:

[00:00] Introduction
[1:57] Trump-Xi Summit: A Win for China? 
[09:03] Fact Sheet Discrepancies 
[14:37] Trump Administration’s China Strategy
[16:47] Achieving Chinese Exceptionalism
[19:20] China’s Confidence and Potential Instability
[21:26] Why No Taiwan Mention? 
[24:48] An Inflection Point for Greater Stability? 
[27:50] Indo-Pacific View of the US-China Relationship

To discuss the plenum’s outcomes, we are joined by Jonathan Czin. Jonathan is a leading expert on Chinese politics and foreign policy. He holds the Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies and is a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution. He previously led the intelligence community’s analysis of Chinese politics and policy making at the CIA and also spent two years as director for China at the National Security Council during the Biden administration.  

Timestamps:  
[00:00] Start  
[01:36] Why the Fourth Plenum Matters  
[03:37] Key Takeaways: Policy Continuity and Political Purges  
[05:07] Zhang Shengmin and Xi Jinping’s Military Ambitions  
[09:23] Signals and Adjustments in Economic Planning  
[11:56] Previewing the 15th Five-Year Plan  
[13:33] Xi Jinping’s Growing Confidence  
[17:42] Political Messaging and Choreography  
[20:21] Language in the Communique: “Strategic Resolve”  
[22:28] What to Expect from the Xi-Trump Summit  
[26:38] Is Beijing Worried the Summit Could Backfire? 

The Trump administration’s policies of imposing tariffs, reducing foreign assistance, and implementing stricter immigration regulations have begun to erode US influence across the region, further encouraging Southeast Asian countries to rely on each other and to diversify their relationships with external partners.    

To discuss Beijing’s evolving approach to Southeast Asia and the efficacy of its policies, we are joined on the podcast today by Dr. Chong Ja Ian. He is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the National University of Singapore and a nonresident fellow at Carnegie China. Ian’s research focuses on Chinese politics, foreign policy, and US-China relations. 

Timestamps
[00:00] Intro
[01:50] China’s Tools and Objectives in SEA
[03:02] Economic Relations with SEA
[05:52] Success and Failures of Beijing’s SEA Strategy
[07:47] Regional Media and Influence
[11:40] SEA Views on China: Consensus and Discord
[14:55] Regional Strategy Post-Trump
[18:22] SEA Reactions to China Taking Taiwan by Force
[22:40] Crisis Planning and How it Could Change
[24:10] Long-Term Outlooks for China-SEA Relations 

Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens is a leading expert on Beijing’s push to reshape the global security order and promote China as a model and global security provider to developing countries. Sheena is an associate professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin where she directs UT’s Asia Policy Program and serves as editor-in-chief of the Texas National Security Review. She is also a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment of International Peace, and a visiting associate professor of research in Indo-Pacific security at the China Landpower Studies Center of the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute. Relevant to this episode’s discussion, Sheena recently published a co-authored report for the Carnegie Endowment of International Peace Carnegie titled “A New World Cop.” 

Timestamps:  
[00:00] Start 
[02:30] The Global Security Initiative and Xi Jinping’s Grand Strategy 
[05:22] Outcomes of the Global Public Security Cooperation Forum  
[08:50] What Do Participant Countries Gain?  
[12:23] How Do Recipient Countries Use Chinese Technologies?  
[16:12] Countries Rejecting China's Surveillance Technologies  
[21:49] China’s Rewriting of Global Norms 
[28:18] Potential Policy Responses to the GSI 

What are Beijing’s interests in Tibet and how has Xi Jinping pursued them since coming to power? What is likely to occur after the Dalai Lama’s passing? I’m delighted to have as my guest today Tendor Dorjee. Tendor is an adjunct assistant professor of political science at Columbia University, a senior researcher at the Tibet Action Institute, and the inaugural Stephanie G Neuman Fellow at the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies. He recently co-authored an article in Foreign Affairs titled Beijing’s Dangerous Game in Tibet”.

Timestamps

[00:00] Start 
[02:08] Beijing’s Key Interests in Tibet 
[04:06] Xi Jinping’s Approach to Tibet 
[07:00] Internal and External Drivers of Tibet Policy 
[08:08] Xi’s Recent Visit to Tibet 
[11:34] Infrastructure Developments and Expansionism  
[15:27] Beijing’s Succession Plans and Tibetan Reactions to a Future Dalai Lama 
[20:27] Risk of Unrest and Crackdowns 
[25:43] Implications for Neighboring States 

Why is AI so important for a country’s global influence? What are the strengths of China’s AI strategy? And what does China’s new AI action plan tell us about its AI ambitions? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Owen Daniels. Owen is the Associate Director of Analysis at Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology and a Non-Resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council. His recently published article in Foreign Affairs co-authored with Hanna Dohmen -- titled China’s Overlooked AI Strategy -- provides insights into how Beijing is utilizing AI to gain global dominance and what the US can and should do to sustain and bolster its lead.

Timestamps

[00:00] Start 
[02:05] US Policy Risks to Chinese AI Leadership 
[05:28] Deepseek and Kimi’s Newest Models  
[07:54] US vs. China’s Approach to AI 
[10:42] Limitations to China’s AI Strategy  
[13:08] Using AI as a Soft Power Tool  
[16:10] AI Action Plans  
[19:34] Trump’s Approach to AI Competition 
[22:30] Can China Lead Global AI Governance?  
[25:10] Evolving US Policy for Open Models

How should we assess the dynamics in the trade talks, including the balance of leverage between Washington and Beijing? And how might the trade negotiations shape the future of the US-China relationship? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Dr. Scott Kennedy. Scott is senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[02:06] Lessons Learned from Trump’s First Administration

[05:20] Chinese Outlook on Future Economic Policy

[09:28] Who’s Winning the Trade War?

[14:30] China’s Reactions to Transshipment Provisions

[18:18] Bessent's Rebalancing Plans 

[24:14] Challenges to Chinese Investment in the US 

[29:15] China's Trade Deal Goals

To discuss ROK-China relations, and President Lee’s approach to this intricate issue, we are joined on the podcast today by Dr. Ramon Pacheco-Pardo. He is a professor of international relations at King’s College London and the KF-VUB Korea Chair at the Center for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy in the Brussels School of Governance. He is also an adjunct fellow with the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the author of several books on the domestic affairs and foreign policy of South and North Korea. 

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[01:44] “[P]ragmatic diplomacy centered on national interests”

[05:06] State of Play for Sino-South Korean Relations

[09:56] Balancing Between the United States and China

[14:47] China Taking Advantage of US-ROK Frictions 

[19:03] Economic Interdependence as a Leverage

[25:39] Xi Jinping Attending APEC South Korea 2025

[31:11] American Pressure on Allies to Protect Taiwan

To discuss what the Israel-Iran war reveals about China’s relationship with Iran, its evolving strategy in the Middle East, and the broader implications for US-China competition, we are joined by Yun Sun on the podcast today. Yun is a Senior Fellow, co-Director of the East Asia Program and Director of the China Program at the Stimson Center. Her recent piece in The Wire China entitled “How China Sees Iran’s Future” offers provides a nuanced take on Beijing’s calculus during and after the war.

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[01:34] China’s Diplomatic Strategy Toward the Middle East

[05:00] A Limited Chinese Response and China’s Regional Role

[08:19] Chinese Perceptions of Iran’s External Strategic Blunders

[15:00] Trickling Chinese Investment into Iran

[20:10] Chinese Concerns About a Nuclearized Iran

[25:09] Implications of the Israel-Iran War for China’s Energy Security

[32:04] Trump’s Response Shaping Chinese Views of the United States 

Beijing’s approach to the Ukraine War has included support for Russia, a commitment China’s own principles, including respecting Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and a professed desire for peace.

This episode’s discussion will focus on China’s evolving posture toward the war and China’s relationship with Ukraine. Joining the podcast this episode is Dr. Vita Golod, who is a Junior Research Fellow at the A. Yu Krymskyi Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy Sciences of Ukraine, and a Visiting Adjunct Instructor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.She is also the co-founder of the Ukrainian Platform for Contemporary China and a board member of the Ukrainian Association of Sinologists. 

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[01:35] China’s Relationship with Ukraine Prior to Russia’s Invasion

[05:06] President Zelenskyy’s Accusations Against China 

[08:20] Contemporary Ukrainian Perceptions of Relations with China 

[12:14] Ukrainian Perceptions of Sino-Russian Relations

[16:25] China as a Mediator and Peacemaker

[19:06] China’s Interests in the Outcome of the Russo-Ukrainian War

[21:21] What concrete steps could China take to facilitate peace? 

[23:14] China’s Role in the Post-War Reconstruction of Ukraine

[28:08] The Future of Sino-Ukrainian Relations

During the India-Pakistan clashes, Beijing urged both sides to deescalate and called for a “political settlement through peaceful means.” But China did not play a neutral role in the conflict. Consistent with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s purported statement to his Pakistani counterpart that “China fully understands Pakistan’s legitimate security concerns and supports Pakistan in safeguarding its sovereignty and security interests,” China reportedly provided intelligence, satellite equipment, and other forms of support to Pakistan before and during the clashes.

To analyze China’s role in the conflict, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Andrew Small. Andrew is a senior transatlantic fellow with GMF’s Indo-Pacific program, and author of two books on China, including “The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia’s New Geopolitics,” which is now ten years old, but remains an insightful and relevant study.

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[01:46] China’s Diplomatic Response to the India-Pakistan Clashes

[05:58] Beijing’s Offer of Playing a “Constructive Role”

[10:56] A Testing Ground for Chinese Weaponry and Equipment

[14:03] China’s Cautious Approach to Sino-Indian Relations

[18:10] Military Support and the Sino-Pakistan Relationship

[23:44] Implications for Chinese Arms Exports

[26:27] Indian and Pakistani Assessments of Chinese Involvement

[30:06] Influence of US-China Rivalry on India-Pakistan Relations

This episode highlights a Chinese perspective on the US-China bilateral relationship, including on the recent trade talks and the factors that will influence US-China relations going forward. Sun Chenghao, a fellow and head of the U.S.-Europe program at Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS), and council member of the Chinese Association of American Studies joins host Bonnie Glaser for this episode. 

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[01:39] What does Trump want from China? 

[04:29] What view does Dr. Sun hold?

[05:00] Assessing the US-China Geneva Talks

[09:21] Feasibility of a Broad US-China Trade Deal

[13:23] Implications of Trump’s “Unification” Comment

[16:46] Importance of the Strategic Channel

[20:47] Declining America, Rising China

[23:27] Shift in US Policy Toward Alliances

[27:49] The Future of US-China Relations

China’s announcement to impose export restrictions on seven rare earth elements on April 4th has opened many conversations surrounding critical minerals, especially regarding the US and its supply chain vulnerabilities. What has China done to achieve their global dominance in the critical minerals sector, and what can the US do to address the overdependence issue they are facing today? To answer these questions and more, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Gracelin Baskaran, the director of the Critical Minerals Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. She is a mining economist whose area of expertise is critical minerals and trade.

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[02:13] US Dependencies on Rare Earths and Critical Minerals

[03:51] Sourcing from Latin America, Africa, and Asia

[06:28] Environmental Harm from Mining and Processing

[08:11] Deliberate Suppression of the Price of Rare Earths in the Market

[11:06] Chinese Exports Restrictions on Seven Rare Earth Elements

[14:08] US Administrations’ Approaches to Critical Minerals Vulnerability

[20:02] 2010 Fishing Boat Accident and Japan’s Response 

[24:00] What might China do moving forward? 

[27:42] Timeframe for the US to Catch Up to China

Taking advantage of the persisting disagreement on delimitation of maritime borders, China has employed gray zone tactics in the Yellow Sea to expand its territorial presence in the region. In the most recent dispute, China installed a new steel structure in the PMZ, causing a maritime standoff between Chinese and Korean coast guards.

To discuss recent developments in the Yellow Sea and China’s broader gray zone tactics in the maritime realm, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Ray Powell, the Director of SeaLight, a maritime transparency project at Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation. Ray is also the co-host of the Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific podcast, and a 35-year veteran of the US Air Force.

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[01:43] Strategic Significance of the Yellow Sea

[03:12] Expanding Chinese Control in the Region

[04:08] Chinese Maritime Installations 

[05:20] Are these installations found in other regions?

[06:00] Gray Zone Tactics in the South China Sea 

[08:20] Maritime Militia Activity in the Yellow Sea

[09:02] 2001 Korea-China Fisheries Agreement

[10:34] Testing the Waters with South Korea

[12:09] Navigating South Korean Policy Dilemmas

[13:48] Rehabilitating China’s Imagine in Korea

[15:14] Environmental Issues in Disputed Waters

[17:18] Countering Chinese Activities in the Yellow Sea

[19:40] SeaLight Tracking and Deciphering Chinese Actions

If a crisis arises with China, leaders may want to de-escalate and prevent a wider conflict. To do so, they will need to understand how China thinks about crisis management and escalation.

The guest for this episode has dug into the writings of PLA strategists and authoritative PRC sources as well as Western scholarship to assess how China views military escalation and how the US and other countries can accurately predict and interpret PRC signal in crisis scenarios.

Lyle Morris is a Senior Fellow on Foreign Policy and National Security at the Center for China Analysis at the Asia Society Policy Institute. His recently published paper is titled “China’s Views on Escalation and Crisis Management and Implications for the United States.”

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[01:37] Methodology and Authoritative Chinese Sources

[04:17] PLA Theories and Concepts of Managing Escalation

[06:00] Controlling All Facets of Military Escalation

[10:28] Doctrine of Seizing the Initiative

[15:21] First Use of Force and a Reluctance to Use Force

[19:37] American and Chinese Considerations of Misperception

[25:46] Utility of US-China Tabletop Exercises

[28:33] Predicting a Taiwan Contingency

To discuss the issue, Michael Caster joins host Bonnie Glaser. Caster is the Head of Global China Programmeat ARTICLE 19, an NGO that advances freedom of opinion and expression. His organization has published two reports examining China's Digital Silk Road. 

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[01:30] Understanding China’s Digital Silk Road 

[05:57] China’s Digital Governance Norms

[10:16] China’s Digital Footprints Abroad

[16:07] Attractiveness of Chinese Digital Solutions

[18:56] Role of High-Tech Companies in Digital Governance

[21:44] Assessing the Effectiveness of China’s Digital Governance

[23:14] State-Driven Surveillance and Censorship

[27:39] China’s BeiDou Navigation System 

[31:09] How should governments respond to these normative shifts? 

At the same time, however, nuclear weapons created a new dilemma. That is: “How can a state achieve its political objectives through military force without triggering a catastrophic nuclear exchange?”

This is a dilemma faced by all countries, especially nuclear powers. States have responded differently to this dilemma. What is China’s answer to this strategic dilemma? What has Beijing been doing to gain strategic leverage? How should we evaluate the success of China’s approach so far?

These issues are the subject of a new book titled Under the Nuclear Shadow: China’s Information Age Weapons in International Security. The author, Fiona Cunningham, joins host Bonnie Glaser for this episode. Fiona is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania. She is also a Faculty Fellow at Perry World House and affiliated with the Center for the Study of Contemporary China and the Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics at the University of Pennsylvania.

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[01:59] How do countries cope with the limited war dilemma?

[04:00] China’s Approach of Strategic Substitution

[07:24] Adoption of this Third Approach

[11:23] Utilizing Information-Age Weapons

[15:49] From Brinksmanship to Calibrated Escalation

[21:21] Understanding China’s No First Use Posture

[26:27] Following China’s Model 

[30:42] An American Response

Securing access to vital natural resources is a key driver of Beijing’s intensified engagement in the Middle East. But China’s interests are broader and encompass economic, geopolitical and strategic considerations.

To further discuss China’s interests and evolving role in the Middle East, Michael Schuman joins host Bonnie Glaser. Michael is a nonresident senior fellow at the Global China Hub of the Atlantic Council and an author and journalist with more than 25 years of on-the-ground experience in Asia.  He is the co-author of a recently published report by the Atlantic Council titled China’s Middle East policy shift from ‘hedging’ to ‘wedging.’

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[02:06] China’s Interest in the Middle East

[04:23] Evaluating China’s Strategy of “Wedging” 

[06:51] Evaluating China’s Position of Neutrality

[10:17] Factors Driving China’s Middle Eastern Strategy 

[13:46] Chinese Bilateral and Multilateral Engagement 

[16:08] China’s Energy Ties with the Middle East

[19:41] Implications for the United States

[24:19] Limits to Chinese Engagement 

China, which self-identifies as a leader of the developing world, has a long history of engaging with the developing world. Under Xi Jinping, Beijing has deepened its ties with Global South countries through economic investment, diplomatic engagement, and security cooperation.  Meanwhile, developed countries from the wealthier and more industrialized Global North are stepping up efforts to counter Chinese influence and win support from Global South countries.  

What are China’s interests in the Global South?  What are the key strategies and tactics that Beijing utilizes to influence and engage with those countries? How have countries in the Global South responded to China’s influence?  And how will intensified Sino-American rivalry impact developing countries in the future? 

To discuss these issues, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Mr. Masaaki Yatsuzuka, Senior Research Fellow at the China Division of the Regional Studies Department at the National Institute for Defense Studies in Japan (NIDS).  He is the co-author of the recently published report titled “The Rising Global South and China.” 

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[01:55] Resurgent Interest in the Global South 

[04:28] Engaging Developing Countries

[06:51] Economic Tools and Mechanisms to Exert Influence

[08:55] Motivation for Expanding Military Presence 

[12:33] Perceptions of China in the Global South 

[15:07] Why does China’s involvement in the Global South matter? 

[17:39] US-China Competition Impacting the Global South

[19:00] India, Brazil, and Other Rising Powers

[20:35] Tokyo’s Concerns Over China’s Influence 

[22:41] Response to Increased Attention Paid to Developing Countries

[24:37] China’s Reaction to the Trump Administration 

To discuss these issues, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dean Cheng, senior advisor to the China program at the U.S. Institute of Peace and a nonresident fellow with George Washington University’s Space Policy Institute. Dean focuses on China’s space program, Chinese military doctrine, and “dual-use” issues associated with China’s scientific and technical enterprises.  He also recently published a book titled China and the New Moon Race.

Timestamp

[00:00] Start

[01:54] Space Race 2.0

[03:27] Space in China’s Grand Strategy

[05:27] Achievements of China’s Space Program

[07:18] Similarities and Differences in China’s Approach

[09:14] Nature of Public-Private Cooperation in China

[12:42] Implications of Landing on the Moon

[15:30] A Chinese Incident in Space

[17:00] International Lunar Research Station 

[18:50] Responses to China’s Space Ambitions

[21:03] Problems in the US-China Civilian Space Race

[23:20] Stars and Stripes on Mars

Many countries around the world are closely watching to identify changes in US policy and assess their impact. China is one of those countries. As presidential candidate Donald Trump threatened to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese goods imported into the United States. He also proposed revoking China’s Most Favored Nation trading status and banning China from buying US farmland. He pledged to curtail Chinese espionage and theft of intellectual property. On some occasions Trump praised Chinese leader Xi Jinping, and predicted that they would get along very well. In the past few months, Trump and Xi have been in communication through their representatives.

What approach will Beijing take toward Trump’s presidency this time around? Is China in a stronger or weaker position than it was in during Trump’s first term? What is the likely trajectory of US-China relations in the coming four years?

To discuss these questions, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Evan Medeiros, who is the Penner Family Chair in Asia Studies in the School of Foreign Service and the Cling Family Distinguished Fellow in US-China Studies at Georgetown University. He served seven years in President Obama’s NSC first as director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia, and then as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Asia. 

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[02:00] Lessons Beijing Learned from Trump’s First Term 

[04:11] Perceptions on the Balance of Economic Power 

[07:30] China’s Reaction to American Tariffs

[09:39] China Hurting the United States without Hurting Itself

[11:48] Starting Anew with the Trump Administration 

[13:38] An Early US-China Meeting

[16:46] An Inverse Bilateral Relationship 

[18:56] China Helping with the War in Ukraine

[25:18] Chinese Use of Force Against Taiwan 

[29:22] US Alliances Under the Trump Administration

[35:00] What worries Evan Medeiros in the US-China relationship?

Last October, India and China struck a border patrol deal. Indian Prime Minister Modi and China’s leader Xi Jinping subsequently met at the BRICS summit in Kazan—their first meeting in five years. That was followed by a round of talks by their top officials just a few weeks ago.

To discuss the status and trajectory of India-China relations, including how the second Trump presidency and other geopolitical developments are likely to influence that relationship, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Tanvi Madan. Tanvi is a senior fellow in the Center for Asia Policy Studies in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution. She is author of the book “Fateful Triangle: How China Shaped U.S.-India Relations During the Cold War.”

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[01:45] October 2024 Border Patrol Deal

[06:40] Impetus for Stabilizing the Sino-Indian Relations

[10:50] Assessment of Wang Yi-Ajit Doval Meeting 

[15:26] Reviving Confident-Building Measures (CBMs)

[20:30] Overstating the Thaw in Sino-Indian Relations

[25:54] Bilateral Trade Volume and Economic Relations

[31:58] India-China Relations Moving Forward

A recently released report provides insights on Chinese perspectives on military use of AI. Published by Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET), the report illustrates some of the key challenges Chinese defense experts have identified in developing and fielding AI-related technologies and capabilities. 

Host Bonnie Glaser is joined by the author of this report, Sam Bresnick, who is a Research Fellow at Georgetown’s CSET focusing on AI applications and Chinese technology policy. 

TimestampsB

[00:00] Start

[01:33] Impetus for the Georgetown CSET Report

[03:34] China’s Assessment of the Impacts of AI and Emerging Technologies

[06:32] Areas of Debate Among Chinese Scholars

[09:39] Evidence of Progress in the Military Application of AI

[12:13] Lack of Trust Amongst Chinese Experts in Existing Technologies

[14:25] Constraints in the Development and Implementation of AI

[18:20] Chinese Expert Recommendations for Mitigating AI Risk

[23:01] Implications Taken from Discussions on AI Risk

[25:14] US-China Areas of Discussion on the Military Use of AI

[28:50] Unilateral Steps Toward Risk Mitigation

More than 2 ½ years have elapsed since then, and scholars have begun to investigate how China is implementing GSI in various regions around the world. A new report from the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) examines how GSI is being operationalized and received in two priority regions of Chinese foreign policy: mainland Southeast Asia and Central Asia. The study draws on field research in both regions. The report is titled “China’s Global Security Initiative Takes Shape in Southeast and Central Asia.” The report has three authors: Bates Gill, Carla Freeman and Alison McFarland. Bonnie Glaser is joined by Bates Gill for this episode to discuss the report’s findings. 

Bates is a senior fellow with the National Bureau of Asian Research, a Senior Associate Fellow with the Royal United Services Institute, and associated with USIP.

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[01:53] Objectives of China’s Global Security Initiative 

[04:22] GSI as an Additive or a Replacement

[07:21] Fieldwork in Southeast and Central Asia

[12:06] Concerns about China’s Intentions and Influence

[15:24] GSI Initiatives and Sources of Funding

[19:58] GSI and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

[23:55] Moscow’s View of GSI 

[29:27] Implications of GSI for the United States

As countries in the Global South flock to form an increasingly significant geopolitical bloc in which China has assumed a leading role, it is important to understand how BRICS+ fits into China’s foreign policy strategy and the role that the BRICS mechanism is likely to play going forward. To discuss these issues, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center which is based in Berlin. His research focuses on Chinese and Russian foreign policy. 

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[01:37] Behind the Creation of BRICS

[04:08] BRICS+ in China’s Foreign Policy Objectives

[06:20] Domination of China in BRICS+

[09:13] Russian and Chinese Interest in BRICS+

[14:16] China and the Expansion of BRICS

[18:07] Noteworthiness of the Kazan Declaration

[21:10] Possibility of a BRICS Currency

[28:11] BRICS+ and U.S. Policy Under Donald Trump

[30:26] Responding to BRICS+ and a Multipolar World

In the past few years, the increasingly competitive and fraught relationship between the United States and China has spilled into the climate domain, threatening the potential for both countries to work together to address climate change. That is the topic of a recent commentary co-authored by Margaret Pearson and Michael Davidson. The paper is titled, “Where are the US and China on addressing climate change?”, and it can be found on the Brookings Institution website. In this episode of China Global, host Bonnie Glaser speaks with one of the authors, Michael Davidson, who is an assistant professor at the School of Global Policy and Strategy and the Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Department of the Jacobs School of Engineering at the University of California San Diego.

Timestamps

[01:57] China’s Approach to Addressing Climate Change

[04:26] Considerations Behind China’s Climate Policy 

[07:37] Doubling Down on Coal Domestically

[10:34] Evaluating China’s Progress Toward Carbon Neutrality

[14:42] Security and China’s Climate Change Policy

[19:13] China’s International Climate Cooperation

[22:45] US-China Working Group on Enhancing Climate Action 

[30:27] The Green Belt and Road Initiative

In recent years, however, China has begun to expand and modernize its nuclear forces. Beijing is not transparent about its nuclear arsenal or its doctrine, however, which creates uncertainty for the United States and its allies.

To help us decipher Beijing’s rapid nuclear expansion, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by John Culver, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub and a former CIA senior intelligence officer. He is a co-author of a recent report published by the Atlantic Council titled “Adapting US Strategy to Account for China’s Transformation into a Peer Nuclear Power.”

Episode Highlights

[1:55] Key identifiable changes in China’s nuclear forces 

[3:49] China’s nascent nuclear triad 

[6:51] The drivers of China’s nuclear expansion 

[11:00] The recent ICBM test and its implications 

[14:50] How China might use its nuclear weapons 

[18:43] Will China change its nuclear declaratory policy

[24:59] How China’s relationship with Russia could shape Beijing’s calculous 

[27:45] How the U.S. and its allies should respond  

To help us further understand Chinese thinking and its significance, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Alicja Bachulska, one of the co-authors of the book and a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. 

Timestamps

[01:22] Significance of Intellectual Debates in China

[04:31] Gauging the Candor of Interview Responses

[06:35] Who are the China solutionists? 

[08:25] Examining the “Great Changes” Taking Place

[11:52] Strengthening China’s Discourse Power

[15:22] Where is China successfully shaping narratives?

[18:05] China on the Defense or Offense

[22:36] Rising East, Declining West

[28:49] Responding to Chinese Discourse in the Global South

To discuss the recent FOCAC meeting and Chinese interests in Africa, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Mr. Paul Nantulya who is Research Associate at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies at National Defense University. His research interests center on African security issues, and China-Afro-Asia engagements.  

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[01:38] History of the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation 

[03:56] FOCAC and Chinese Interests in Africa 

[06:46] Africa in China’s Hierarchy of Relationships

[10:28] Sino-American Competition in the Global South 

[13:20] Takeaways from the Recent FOCAC Summit

[18:27] Chinese Military Assistance in Africa

[24:27] FOCAC Engagement with Non-Governmental Entities 

[27:52] African Perceptions of the Efficacy of FOCAC

A new report from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), titled “When China knocks at the door of New Caledonia,” explains China’s interests, intentions, and activities in New Caledonia. It calls for greater attention to the territory and makes recommendations for the US and other regional actors to address the growing Chinese interference.

To discuss Beijing’s approach to New Caledonia, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by the report’s author, Anne-Marie Brady, Professor of Political Science at the University of Canterbury in New Zealand. She specializes in Chinese domestic politics and foreign policy, polar politics, China-Pacific politics, and New Zealand foreign policy. 

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[01:46] Introduction to New Caledonia

[04:20] China’s Interest and Involvement 

[07:22] Expansion of the International United Front 

[11:48] Manifestation Within New Caledonia

[16:22] The Belt and Road Initiative in New Caledonia

[21:34] Establishing Diplomatic Relations

[25:29] China’s Relationship with France

[28:29] Recommendations for Outside Powers and Others

Explanations for China’s increased diplomatic assertiveness vary, ranging from rising military and economic might to the personal leadership style of General Secretary Xi Jinping. A recently published book titled “China’s Rising Foreign Ministry,” investigates the role of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in shaping and implementing Chinese foreign policy. In the words of a Southeast Asian diplomat who was interviewed by the book’s author, “China has a bigger international influence in the last five years—and it is the PRC foreign ministry that is pushing and driving it" (114).

Host Bonnie Glaser is joined by the book’s author Dylan Loh Ming Hui, Assistant Professor of Public Policy and Global Affairs at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. His research focuses on Chinese foreign policy, Southeast Asian regionalism, and Asian conceptions of the international order. 

Timestamps

[01:57] What questions was the book seeking to address? 

[04:29] What do observers get wrong about China’s foreign ministry? 

[08:22] China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Policy Formulation

[13:30] Characteristics of Chinese Diplomacy in Southeast Asia

[16:50] Relationship Between the Chinese MFA and PLA 

[20:10] The Role of the International Liaison Department

[22:22] Interview Example from Dylan’s Publication

[25:04] Policy Implications and Lessons to be Learned

[28:43] Changes Since the Publication of the Book

[32:15] Predictions for the Future of the China MFA

In 2016, an arbitral tribunal established under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea ruled that Second Thomas Shoal is a low-tide elevation located within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines and therefore sovereignty belongs to the Philippines. No other country can legitimately claim sovereignty over the feature or the waters around it. Beijing doesn’t recognize the ruling, even though it was legally binding on both China and the Philippines.

Late last year, Chinese Coast Guard and maritime militia vessels began aggressively interfering with the Philippines’ routine missions to deliver supplies to the Filipino forces on the Sierra Madre. On several occasions, Chinese ships have used high-pressure water cannons and rammed Filipino boats. The most serious confrontation took place in mid-June, when the Chinese used axes and knives to damage multiple Philippine vessels. A Filipino navy sailor lost his thumb in the skirmish. Negotiations between Beijing and Manila in early July produced a provisional arrangement, and the Philippines subsequently successfully conducted a resupply operation. It is uncertain whether the understanding will hold, however, since Beijing and Manila publicly disagree about what has been agreed upon.

To discuss the situation at Second Thomas Shoal and China’s approach to the South China Sea, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Zhang Feng, a visiting scholar at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center. His research focuses on Chinese foreign policy, international relations theory, and international relations in East Asia. 

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[02:31] Why is the South China Sea so important to China? 

[05:30] Has China overstepped in the South China Sea? 

[08:54] Reasons for Deepening Sino-Filipino Confrontation

[12:05] Beijing’s Reaction to a Reinforced Second Thomas Shoal

[13:30] Beijing’s Perception of the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty

[16:44] Miscalculating American Willingness to Intervene

[21:32] Beijing-Manila Provisional Agreement 

[25:00] Chinese Deadline for the Philippines vis-à-vis the Second Thomas Shoal

[27:38] Gauging the Risk of Escalation or Conflict

[30:25] Stabilizing and Resolving the Second Thomas Shoal Issue

This year’s summit was particularly notable due to Belarus’s accession as the SCO’s first European member state and the tenth member of the SCO. The continuous enlargement of the SCO seems indicative of the organization’s shifting role, evolving from a regional cooperative forum to a broader, perhaps counter-western bloc. 

This episode will focus on China’s strategy in the SCO, its intentions, and its objectives. Host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Eva Seiwert, an analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS). Her research interests include China-Russia relations, China’s central Asian relations, and China’s behavior in international organizations. 

Timestamps

[01:39] Shifting Focus of the SCO

[03:32] Enlargement of the SCO

[05:25] SCO and China’s Foreign Policy

[07:22] July 2024 SCO Summit

[09:46] Implementation of Agreements

[11:38] Sino-Russian Sideline Meeting

[13:09] Sino-Russian Competition or Coordination

[15:14] Sino-Belarussian Joint Military Drill

[16:56] SCO and the War in Ukraine

[19:04] Controversial Issues in the SCO

[20:26] Tensions Between China and India

[21:29] New SCO Member States

[23:07] SCO and Chinese Institution Building 

[25:40] The impact of SCO: Why does it matter?

Quantum computing has many potential applications, including financial modeling, artificial intelligence, scientific research, as well as in defense areas, such as undersea warfare and military communications networks. A new report from the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), titled “The Quest for Qubits: Assessing U.S.-China Competition in Quantum Computing” explains the quantum strategies being pursued by the US and China. It makes recommendations for the US to strengthen its position in its competition with China in quantum computing.

Host Bonnie Glaser is joined by the report’s author, Sam Howell, an adjunct associate fellow, with the Technology and National Security program at CNAS. Her research interests include quantum information science, semi-conductor STEM workforce issues, and the use of emerging technologies to enhance human performance. 

Timestamps

[02:00] What is quantum computing?

[04:10] Quantum Computing in US-China Competition

[05:58] American and Chinese Strengths and Weaknesses

[09:36] Possibility of Working with Other Actors

[11:56] Status of US-China Scientific Collaboration

[14:30] Chinese Technological Self-Sufficiency

[17:58] Building a Quantum Technology Supply Chain

[22:05] Fostering a Quantum Technology Workforce

[25:52] Key Variables of US-China Competition

What were Beijing’s interests and motivations in reviving this trilateral mechanism?

To discuss China’s participation in the trilateral summit, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Yun Sun, a Senior Fellow and Co-director of the East Asia program and Director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington.

Timestamps

[01:18] Reestablishing the Trilateral Leadership Mechanism

[06:14] Outcomes and Deliverables of the Trilateral Summit

[10:37] 2019 Chengdu Denuclearization Agreement

[13:38] China’s Import Ban on Japanese Seafood

[18:07] China on US-Japan-ROK Trilateral Cooperation

[23:58] Warming Russian-North Korean Relations

[29:30] Would Xi Jinping express his concerns with Vladimir Putin?

Western sanctions have failed to cripple Russia’s economy or its war effort. After the European Union halted the import of Russian oil, China stepped in and has since become Russia’s top energy buyer. Moreover, China has become Russia’s top goods supplier, having surged its sales of machine tools, microelectronics, and other technology that Moscow uses to produce weaponry in its ongoing war with Ukraine. 

To discuss China’s trade with Russia, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Yanmei Xie. Yanmei is a Geopolitics Analyst at Gavekal Research, where she analyzes the implications of rising geopolitical and geoeconomic risks on trade, investments, and supply chains. Yanmei recently published a report on China’s economic support for Russia, which was titled “How China Keeps Russia in Business.” 

Timestamps

[02:00] China’s Economic Support of Russia 

[05:29] Areas of Success for Western Sanctions

[07:11] A Surge in Chinese Exports After the Invasion of Ukraine 

[09:54] Chinese Playbook for Circumventing Sanctions

[13:36] Chinese Provision of Crucial Materials

[15:17] Incentive to Capture the Russian Energy Market

[19:17] Impact of Western Industrial Policies on Sino-Russian Trade 

[20:20] Possibility of Increased Sanctions to Deter China

[23:24] China’s Toolbox of Retaliatory Measures 

[26:48] Plateauing Economic Support for Russia

Many economists, including some in China, advocate that the government stimulate consumer spending. It is clear, however, that Xi Jinping is pursuing a different strategy. And this was quite clear when Chinese Premier Li Qiang delivered the Government Work Report last March.

Host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Tanner Greer, who argued in a recent article published in Foreign Policy and in his blog, The Scholar’s Stage, that Xi Jinping and the Politburo believe that science and technology are the answer to China’s problems. To quote from the article: “the central task of the Chinese state is to build an industrial and scientific system capable of pushing humanity to new technological frontiers.” Tanner is the director of the Center for Strategic Translation. As a journalist and researcher, his writing focuses on world politics and history. 

Timestamps

[01:43] Historical Narrative Informing China’s Belief in Techno-Industrial Policy

[03:47] How does China’s own history fit into this narrative?

[06:36] Evidence that Xi Jinping Believes in a Technological Revolution

[09:37] How does China assess the global balance of power?

[12:26] Three Premises Behind China’s Techno-Industrial Drive

[14:08] Influence of Intensifying US-China Technology Competition

[17:12] Acceleration of New Quality Productive Forces

[19:32] Skepticism of China’s Strategy

[26:43] Chinese Intellectuals Writing on Techno-Industrial Policy

The Americas Quarterly reported that China has expressed interest in building a port complex near the Strait of Magellan at the southern tip of South America, which is considered the most important natural passage between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. From there, according to the Americas Quarterly, Beijing could grow its presence in the region and also project influence in Antarctica.

And in late April, China held the first China-Latin American and Caribbean States Space Cooperation Forum, which opened with a congratulatory letter from Xi Jinping applauding the high-level space cooperation partnership in which he emphasized the benefits of marrying China’s mature space technology with the unique geographic advantage of the countries in the Latin America and Caribbean region.

To discuss Chinese interests in and strategy toward the Latin America and Caribbean region–known as the LAC–host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Leland Lazarus. He is the Associate Director of National Security at Florida International University’s Jack D. Gordon Institute of Public Policy and an expert on China-Latin America relations. He formerly served as the Special Assistant and Speechwriter to the Commander of US Southern Command and as a State Department Foreign Service Officer, with postings in Barbados and China. 

Editorial Correction: Regarding the statement on the price of Huawei's equipment, it is approximately 30% cheaper than Nokia or Ericcson, rather than one-third the price. 

Timestamps

[02:30] China’s Interest in LAC Countries

[04:44] Implementation of BRI in LAC Countries

[07:23] China’s Investment in Energy Development

[09:39] Huawei’s Penetration into LAC Countries

[11:57] Role of Perú in Beijing’s Regional Strategy

[14:56] China-LAC Cooperation in Space

[20:56] Receptivity of China to LAC Countries

[25:30] How should the US compete against China in LAC? 

To address these questions and more, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Jan Knoerich. He is the author on a chapter of Chinese FDI on the recent Oxford publication “Rising Power, Limited Influence”, a collection of essays on the effects of Chinese investment in Europe. Dr. Knoerich is a senior lecturer on the Chinese economy for the Lau China Institute at King’s College in London. He is an expert on the Chinese economy, FDI, and international investment law and policy. 

Timestamps

[01:38] Evolution of Chinese Foreign Investment Strategies

[04:48] Chinese Firms Undertaking Foreign Direct Investment

[09:16] Impacts of Chinese FDI: Five Dimensions 

[18:17] Reasons Why Chinese Firms are Viewed with Suspicion

[21:06] Impacts of Chinese FDI Projects in Europe

[24:59] Evidence of Chinese FDI Exerting Political Influence

This year on March 19th, Article 23 was passed unanimously by the city’s parliament and it came into effect just days later. The law covers five types of crime: treason, insurrection and incitement to mutiny, theft of state secrets, and espionage, sabotage, and external interference. Critics say that Article 23 could lead to even further erosions of civil liberties in Hong Kong.

To discuss Article 23 and its implications, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Eric Yan-ho Lai. Dr. Lai is a Research Fellow at the Georgetown Center for Asian Law, an Associate Fellow at the Hong Kong Studies Hub of the University of Surrey, and a member of the Asian Civil Society Research Network. 

Timestamps

[01:47] Understanding PRC Definitions Used in Article 23

[03:37] Why was Article 23 passed now?

[05:23] Compressed Timeline for Unanimous Approval

[09:05] Shift in Risk Assessment for Multinational Corporations

[12:03] Precedents for Targeting Diaspora Communities

[14:17] Reactions to Article 23 from the International Community

[15:54] What are some concrete actions that could be taken to signal concern?

[17:55] Do the PRC and Hong Kong care about international perceptions?

[19:36] Implementation of Article 23 Moving Forward

[21:28] Passage of Additional Security Legislature

[22:57] Forecast for the Future of Hong Kong

Yet, despite the alignment in transatlantic assessments, cooperation on China remains limited. A new paper by experts from Chatham House and RUSI, leading think tanks in the United Kingdom, analyzes why transatlantic mechanisms have made slow progress, focusing on three domains: economics; security; and the multilateral system and global norms. The paper also offers ways to strengthen cooperation going forward. 

The title of the report is “Transatlantic China Policy: In Search of an Endgame?” Host Bonnie Glaser is joined by one of its authors, Ben Bland who is the director of the Asia-Pacific program at Chatham House. His research focuses on the nexus of politics, economics, and international relations in Southeast Asia, as well as China’s growing role in the broader region and the contours of US–China strategic competition. 

Timestamps

[01:46] Why did you pursue this research on transatlantic mechanism?

[03:24] Importance of Agreeing on an Endgame

[06:30] Consensus and Divergence between the US and Europe

[10:10] De-risking: One Word, Many Meanings 

[15:00] Transatlantic Discussions on European and Indo-Pacific Security

[18:40] Can a regional division of labor strategy work?

[22:13] China, the Multilateral System, and Global Norms

[27:00] Tensions Between EU Multilateralism and Transatlantic Consensus

[31:10] What are the next steps for Chatham House?

At face value, disruptions of global trade may seem to run counter to Chinese interests, but Beijing’s hesitance to become more deeply involved in the crisis may tell us something about China’s calculations in this crisis. It may also show the limits of Chinese influence in the region. 

Host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Ahmed Aboudouh. Ahmed is an associate fellow with the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, a nonresident fellow with the Atlantic Council, and heads the China Studies research unit at the Emirates Policy Center. His research focuses on China’s rising influence in the Middle East and North Africa region, Gulf geopolitics, and the effects of China-US competition worldwide. 

Timestamps

[01:36] China’s Statement on Palestine at the International Court of Justice

[08:20] Why is China indirectly supporting Hamas despite its relations with Israel?

[12:11] Effectiveness of China’s Narrative Critical of America and the West

[16:54] Israel, Palestine, and China’s Diplomatic Calculus

[20:12] China’s Hesitance to Counter the Houthis in the Red Sea

[25:15] Does China have leverage over Iran, and if so, will they use it?

[29:59] Circumstances for Deeper Chinese Involvement

China’s approach to relations with Myanmar since the coup have been evolving swiftly, especially since the recent Operation 1027, a large offensive staged by the ethnic armed forces coalition known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance on October 27th 2023. The losses by the junta during the operation revealed their control of the country to be more tenuous than Beijing might have expected and exemplify the complex factors going into China’s decision-making approach to the conflict. 

For this episode, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Jason Tower, the country director for the Burma program at the United States Institute for Peace. Tower has over 20 years of experience working in conflict and security issues in China and Southeast Asia, including analysis on cross-border investments, conflict dynamics, and organized crime in the region. He worked previously in Beijing and is a former Fulbright research student and Harvard-Yenching fellow. 

Timestamps

[02:07] China’s Interest in the Myanmar Conflict

[05:48] China’s Engagement with Parties in Myanmar

[12:48] Impact of China’s Brokered Ceasefires 

[20:30] Credibility of China in Southeast Asia

[25:15] Myanmar in the US-China Relationship

There are several reasons why this book stands out: First, it includes an examination of debates within China about China’s national interests; Second, it focuses not only on the challenges of major wars, but also on China’s gray-zone strategy of deliberately pursuing its interests in ways that stay below the threshold that would trigger a US military response. And finally, it assesses the applicability of the Thucydides Trap to the US-China relationship. The Thucydides Trap concept was coined by Graham Allison who examined historical cases in which a rising power threatened to displace a ruling power in his book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? Allison concluded that in the majority of historical cases the outcome was war.

This book is especially interesting because it is written by a European expert who has deep knowledge of Taiwan, mainland China, and the United States: Jean-Pierre Cabestan. He is an emeritus senior researcher at the French Center for Scientific Research in Paris and an emeritus professor political science at the Department of Government and International Studies at Hone Kong Baptist University, and a visiting senior fellow at GMF. 

Timestamps

[02:07] Revisiting the Thucydides Trap 

[03:53] Why was China fascinated by this concept? 

[05:26] Reasons for the Risk of War Increasing

[06:33] The US-China Cold War and its Characteristics

[09:03] China’s Gray-Zone Activities 

[10:53] Where has China’s gray-zone strategy been the most successful? 

[12:37] Unifying Taiwan with China through Gray-Zone Activities

[14:42] Chinese Use of Force in the Taiwan Strait in the 2020s

[16:17] China’s Ambitions in the International Arena

[17:40] Future Overseas Operations of the PLA 

 

Xi delivered a major speech at the Work Conference, which marks the most comprehensive expression yet of his more activist approach to PRC diplomacy. The speech provides valuable insights into Xi’s assessment of the global balance of power, his vision of the international order, and his views of the role of Chinese diplomacy.

Host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Neil Thomas, a Fellow for Chinese Politics at Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis, where he studies elite politics, political economy, and foreign policy. Previously, he was a Senior Analyst for China and Northeast Asia at Eurasia Group. 

Timestamps

[01:32] Historical Significance of Foreign Affairs Work Conference

[07:09] Xi’s Key Messages from the Conference in December

[11:10] Xi’s Concept of the Community of Common Destiny

[15:26] Major Country Diplomacy in Chinese Foreign Policy

[20:03] China’s Diplomacy Going Forward

[23:07] Xi’s Speech to Chinese Ambassadors

Beijing expected that Lai would win and was therefore well prepared. The statement, issued by the Taiwan Affairs Office shortly after the final tally was announced, emphasized that the election result would not change the trend of cross-Strait relations and said that reunification remained inevitable. It also warned against Taiwan independence and foreign interference. 

This episode focuses on China’s perspectives on the election and its likely reaction going forward. Host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Rick Waters, who is managing director of Eurasia Group’s China practice. He has served 27 years as a career diplomat, most recently as the inaugural head of the State Department’s Office of China Coordination and Deputy Secretary of State for China and Taiwan.

Time Stamps

[01:56] Interpreting Beijing’s Statements

[03:40] Views of the State Security Ministry

[04:38] Poaching Taiwan’s Diplomatic Ally Nauru

[06:53] Threat of Tariff Imposition

[08:37] Impact of Woodside Summit on Beijing’s Response

[10:02] What role do the Chinese want the Americans to play?

[11:13] Assessing the Efficacy of Chinese Policy Toward Taiwan

[13:40] Unofficial American Delegation Visiting Taiwan

[15:02] Post-Election Comment from President Biden

[16:26] Clarifying the US One-China Policy

[19:48] Xi Jinping’s Statements to Biden about Taiwan

[23:14] Is reunification a legacy issue for Xi Jinping?

[24:49] What are the most important variables moving forward?

[27:00] China and Peaceful Unification

Bonnie is joined by Dr. Evan Medeiros, who has recently published a pathbreaking study that seeks to update the understanding of political forces in China and the United States that are influencing the bilateral relationship. Medeiros is one of the world’s leading experts on Chinese foreign policy. He is the Penner Family Chair in Asia studies and the Cling Family Distinguished Fellow in US-China Studies in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. The report we will discuss today is titled: "The New Domestic Politics of US-China Relations" and was published by the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis where Evan is a senior fellow for foreign policy. During the Obama administration, Evan was on the NSC staff, first as director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia, and then as special assistant to the president and Senior Director for Asia. 

Timestamps

[02:14] Influence of Domestic Politics in the US and China

[03:32] Differences between US and Chinese Domestic Politics

[05:19] Weakening of Historical Forces for Stability

[08:35] Most Important Driver of Change to America’s China Policy

[13:34] Xi Jinping Shaping Domestic Politics in China

[19:38] Reversing the Downward Trend in US-China Relations

[21:44] Close Connections between Domestic and Foreign Politics

[24:49] Biden and Xi as Leaders in the Bilateral Relationship

Ms. Bonnie Glaser is the managing director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program. She is also a nonresident fellow with the Lowy Institute in Sydney, Australia, and a senior associate with the Pacific Forum. She was previously senior adviser for Asia and the director of the China Power Project at CSIS. Ms. Glaser has worked at the intersection of Asia-Pacific geopolitics and U.S. policy for more than three decades.

Dr. Jessica Chen Weiss is a professor for China and Asia-Pacific Studies in the Department of Government at Cornell University. She was previously an assistant professor at Yale University and founded the Forum for American/Chinese Exchange at Stanford University. Formerly, Dr. Weiss served as senior advisor to the Secretary’s Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. State Department on a Council on Foreign Relations Fellowship for Tenured International Relations Scholars.

Dr. Thomas Christensen is a professor of Public and International Affairs and Director of the China and World Program at Columbia University. Prior to this, he served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs with responsibility for relations with China, Taiwan, and Mongolia. His research and teaching focus is on China’s foreign relations, the international relations of East Asia, and international security.

Host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Mr. Gunnar Wiegand, who has recently retired from the post of Managing Director for Asia and the Pacific at the European External Action Service, which he held for 7 ½ years. He is now a visiting professor at the College of Europe and the Paris School of International Affairs, and as of November 1, 2023, he has joined GMF’s Indo-Pacific program as a visiting distinguished fellow. 

Timestamps

[01:39] EU-China Relations on the Eve of the 24th Bilateral Summit

[05:13] Impact of the War in Ukraine on EU-China Relations

[07:29] How could China alleviate concerns in Europe? 

[09:33] De-risking in the European Union

[15:27] Proportionate and Precise Economic Security

[18:27] How similar are EU and US perceptions of China?

[22:13] The EU’s Stance on Taiwan

[26:19] How can EU contribute to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait?

[27:21] Outcomes of the Biden-Xi Summit

While the conflict itself demands global attention, the focus of this podcast is Chinese foreign and security policy. This discussion focuses on China’s response to the war, China’s relations with Palestine and Israel, and the actions that Beijing might take in the coming weeks and months that could help defuse the conflict or cause it to worsen.

To date, China has not condemned Hamas. Instead, it has criticized what it calls Israel’s disproportionate military response and the “collective punishment of the Gazan people.” Moreover, it has trumpeted its position as an unbiased potential mediator and called for a ceasefire and the implementation of a two-state solution.

Host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Tuvia Gering, who, like many Israelis, has been activated to defend his country. Gering is a leading expert on China and its relations with the Middle East. In his civilian capacity, he is a researcher at the Diane & Guilford Glazer Foundation’s Israel-China Policy Center at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv and a nonresident fellow for the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub.

Timestamps

[02:25] China’s Past Relationships with Israel and Palestine

[03:43] Reaction to the Chinese Response 

[05:06] China’s Interests in Supporting Palestine

[09:06] China’s Reaction to the Death of Chinese Citizens

[10:55] Benefits of a Wider Conflict for China 

[15:02] Comparisons to the War in Ukraine

[17:54] China as a Mediator for the War

[20:55] Antisemitism in Chinese Society

[25:35] Outcome of the War for China

The US Defense Department has just released its annual China Military Power Report, and that says that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) probably has also considered adding military logistics facilities in 19 countries around the world (in addition to Djibouti): Cambodia, Burma, Thailand, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, United Arab Emirates, Kenya, Equatorial Guinea, Seychelles, Tanzania, Angola, Nigeria, Namibia, Mozambique, Bangladesh, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, and Tajikistan. To expand its global footprint, People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will need to cultivate good relations with potential host countries. China’s military diplomacy is likely aimed at achieving that objective among others.

Today’s discussion focuses on the key features and goals of China’s military diplomacy and its quest for additional military installations – or what the Chinese call “strategic strongpoints.” Host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Kristin Gunness, a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation. She previously served as the Director of the Navy Asia Pacific Advisory Group at the Pentagon, advising the Chief of Naval Operations on security and foreign policy trends in the Indo-Pacific, focusing on Chinese naval and gray zone warfare capabilities. Earlier this year, Kristin testified on China’s overseas military diplomacy and its implications for American interests at a hearing convened by the US Economic and Security Review Commission. 

Timestamps

[02:20] Introduction to Military Diplomacy

[04:36] Three Objectives of Chinese Military Diplomacy

[06:15] China’s Regions of Interest

[08:48] Gauging the Success of China’s Military

[11:46] Beijing’s Broader Geo-Political Strategy

[13:47] Challenges Posed to US Interests

[15:53] Military Installations Versus Commercial Ports

[17:20] Potential Chinese Presence in Cambodia 

[19:27] Potential Chinese Presence in Equatorial Guinea 

[21:41] Beijing’s Assessment of their Military Diplomacy

[23:33] Recommendations for a US Response

Since taking office in June 2022, President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. has pursued a strategy of “being a friend to all and an enemy to none.” He has tried to maintain close economic ties with China, signing 14 cooperation agreements when he visited Beijing last January, including an updated Belt and Road Initiative memorandum. He secured over $22 billion in investment and trade deals. But the maritime disputes between the Philippines and China are becoming more contentious, and Manila is pushing back against Chinese pressure in new ways.  

Host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Richard Heydarian to analyze the bilateral relationship and especially the maritime flashpoints. Heydarian is a columnist at the Philippine Daily Inquirer, a Senior Lecturer at the University of the Philippines, and a policy adviser. His most recent book is The Indo-Pacific: Trump, China, and the New Global Struggle for Mastery. 

Timestamps

[01:36] Changes in Sino-Phillipine Relations

[09:05] Tensions Between the Chinese Coast Guard and Philippine Ships

[14:23] Pushing Back Against China

[20:55] China, the Philippines, and the Warship

[25:05] Future Relations with China

[29:30] The Philippines and a Taiwan Strait Conflict

To discuss this topic, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Collin Koh who is Senior Fellow at the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, based in Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. He has research interests on naval affairs in the Indo-Pacific, focusing on Southeast Asia. 

Timestamps

[01:29] How does this map differ from previous ones?

[04:44] Interagency Coordination on Release

[05:51] Reaction of the Chinese Foreign Ministry 

[08:12] Significance of the Timing of the Release

[11:32] Protests Against the Map’s Release

[15:09] Portrayal of the South China Sea

[19:35] Ambiguity of Beijing’s Claims 

[23:44] Territorial Claims Along the Sino-Russian Border

[26:58] Lasting Impact of the Map

How does the BRICS serve China’s foreign policy objectives? And is this expansion a major win for Xi Jinping? Is BRICS likely to become a global grouping of authoritarian countries that poses a challenge to the G-7 group of democracies – and is that what Beijing wants? 

To discuss these topics and more, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Colleen Cottle, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub. Prior to joining the Atlantic Council, she spent over a dozen years at the Central Intelligence Agency where she worked on East and South Asia. 

Timestamps

[01:45] What has BRICS achieved? 

[05:33] China Driving the BRICS Agenda

[08:35] Where does BRICS fit into China’s foreign policy agenda? 

[10:53] Why has BRICS refrained from endorsing BRI?

[12:53] Outcomes of Johannesburg Summit

[15:18] Criteria for Expanding BRICS Membership

[18:19] Potential for BRICS Disrupting the International Order

[23:52] China as a Developing Country

[26:56] Will we see any breakthroughs with BRICS? 

The PLA’s Rocket Force, established on January 1, 2016, is the successor to the Second Artillery Corps. It has responsibility for China’s growing arsenal of land-based ballistic and cruise missiles, both nuclear and conventional. 

What is the significance of this reshuffle in the PLA’s most sensitive branch? What implications do the appointments of new commanders from other parts of the military have for PLA readiness and preparations for a Taiwan invasion scenario? 

To discuss these questions, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Phillip Saunders, Director of the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs and a Distinguished Research Fellow at the National Defense University’s Institute of National Strategic Studies. Dr. Saunder’s most recent publication is a study he conducted with David Logan on the drivers of China’s nuclear force development. The views he expresses today are his own and do not represent the National Defense University or the US Department of Defense.

Timestamps

[01:58] Unpacking the Shakeup 

[04:19] Launch-on-Warning Posture

[05:34] Rooting out Corruption

[09:00] Concerns of Loyalty 

[10:40] Inexperienced Leadership

[14:58] Naval Leadership of Rocket Force

[17:32] Viability of Invading Taiwan

[19:06] System for Military Governance

[21:38] Nuclear Force Development

[29:00] US-China Nuclear Dialogue  

To discuss this topic, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Before joining CSIS, he was the director of strategy and policy at the Department of Defense (DOD) Joint Artificial Intelligence Center, where he oversaw development and implementation of the DOD’s AI Strategy, drove policy and human capital reforms to accelerate the DOD’s adoption of AI, and developed mechanisms for AI governance and ethics. 

Timestamps

[01 :37] Centrality of AI in US-China Competition

[04 :21] China’s Strengths and Weaknesses

[06 :20] Progress in the Field of AI

[09 :54] Reducing the Risk of Military AI Accidents

[13 :37] Discussing AI with the Chinese Government

[16 :11] Biden Administration’s Export Controls on AI

[21 :31] Reducing Dependency on the West

[24 :15] Collaborating on AI Regulation

[27 :25] Who will spearhead the next Technological Revolution?

China dominates global critical mineral supply chains, accounting for approximately 60% of world-wide production and 85% of processing capacity. However, the U.S. and several European countries are taking steps to build out their own ability to mine, process, and manufacture critical minerals. To discuss the implications of China’s role in critical mineral supply chains and the responses of the U.S. and its partners, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Abigail Wulf, vice president and director of the Ambassador Alfred Hoffman Jr. Center for Critical Minerals Strategy at Securing America’s Future Energy (SAFE), a non-profit advancing transformative transportation technology to enhance energy security.

Time Stamps

[01:51] Vulnerabilities and Risks of Overdependence 

[07:07] Development of a Domestic Mining Industry 

[12:42] Environmental Hazards of Processing Raw Minerals 

[18:30] Impact of Export Controls on Gallium and Germanium

[22:53] Diversifying Sources of Rare Earth Imports

[26:38] The Critical Raw Materials Act

[29:58] The Mineral Security Partnership

A new Foreign Relations Law took effect in China on July 1, 2023 that formalizes Chinese Communist Party leadership in all foreign policy matters. It puts China’s security and development interests and global rise at the center of its engagement with the world. The new law has been widely interpreted as providing a legal basis for Beijing’s struggle against what it says is a strategy of containment by the United States and its allies, and against foreign interference and sanctions, as well as what is calls America’s “long-arm jurisdiction.” 

To discuss the Foreign Relations Law, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Moritz Rudolf, a Research Scholar in Law and Fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center, where he focuses on the implications of China’s rise for the international legal order.

Timestamps

[01:15] Impetus for the Foreign Relations Law

[02:47] Centralized and Unified Leadership of Foreign Relations

[04:27] China and Reforming the International Order

[09:20] How might China use the foreign relations law?

[11:03] Insurance Against International Courts

[12:31] Targeting a Domestic Audience

[15:10] Expected Policy Changes in China

[17:30] Applicability of the Law in Cross-Strait Relations

[21:57] Forecasting Chinese Use of Lawfare

Several months later, the US and China decided to try again. Blinken visited Beijing from June 18-19, and had meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping, CCP Central Foreign Affairs Office Director Wang Yi, and State Councilor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang. What is the trajectory of the bilateral relationship after the visit? Is it possible to stabilize ties and resume dialogue mechanisms and some forms of cooperation, or is further deterioration of relations more likely? 

To discuss these issues, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Evan Medeiros, the Penner Family Chair in Asia Studies in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, and the Cling Family Distinguished Fellow in U.S.-China Studies. During the Obama administration, Evan served for six years on the National Security Council as Director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia. 

Timestamps

[01:45] US-China Relations at this Juncture

[05:10] Deterioration of US-China Relations

[08:30] Analysis of Secretary Blinken’s Visit

[10:40] Principles Guiding US-China Relations

[13:16] Is agreement on principles a precondition for progress?

[13:48] Is the US-China relationship dominated by competition?

[16:45] Top-Down Pressure to Deny Competition

[18:30] Displacing the United States

[19:50] Where Blinken’s Visit Fell Short

[22:48] Putting a Floor Under the Relationship

[24:46] Interpreting Evolving Sino-Russian Relations

[28:15] China’s Initial Reaction to the War in Ukraine

[29:24] Forecast for US-China Relations                                                                                 

[31:57] Incentives for Stability

How dangerous was this incident? Why do US warships sail in these waters, and do they do so in accordance with international law? And what steps should be taken to ensure that accidents do not take place between US and Chinese naval vessels?

To discuss these questions, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Peter Dutton, professor of international law in the Stockton Center for International Law at the US Naval War College and an Adjunct Professor of Law at New York University School of Law. His research focuses on international law of the sea, Chinese views of sovereignty and international law, and China’s maritime expansion. 

Timestamps

[01:50] Freedom of the High Seas 

[03:21] Joint Freedom of Navigation Operations

[03:52] Statement by the US Indo-Pacific Command

[04:46] Statement by Defense Minister Li Shangfu

[06:49] History of Dangerous Maneuvering by the Chinese

[07:41] Trigger for the Recent Dangerous Maneuver

[09:13] Chinese Adherence to International Law

[10:19] Signaling Intentions in a Safe and Legal Manner

[12:03] Aftermath of a Hypothetical Collision at Sea

[14:44] Is the US Goading China into Conflict?

[17:38] Rules of Behavior for Safety of Air and Maritime Encounters

[19:24] Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea

[20:27] The US and the Convention on the Law of the Sea

[21:51] Interactions with Chinese Experts and Professionals

[03:48] Changes in Swiss-Chinese Relations

[06:03] Switzerland’s 2021 China Strategy

[08:17] Areas of Economic Cooperation

[11:05] Switzerland’s Relationship with Taiwan

[14:45] Switzerland’s One China Policy

[17:32] Contending with Human Rights Issues

[18:55] Huawei’s Presence in Switzerland

[20:56] China’s Influence in Switzerland

[23:42] Forecast of Swiss-Chinese Relations

[01:30] Sinocentric Order in the Digital Sphere

[06:51] China’s Digital Silk Road 

[09:35] Global Rise of Chinese Digital Platforms

[11:57] The Strength of Chinese Digital Platforms

[14:04] The Digital Sector and Government Partnership

[16:53] Dominance of Western Digital Platforms

[19:08] Pros and Cons of Banning TikTok 

[21:08] Chinese Crackdown of the Digital Sector

[23:27] Looking Forward in the Digital Space

[02:01] China and International Bailout Activities

[04:33] China and the G20 Common Framework

[07:34] Debt Service Suspension Initiative

[09:42] Definition of a “Haircut” in Finance

[10:00] IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings

[12:37] Beijing’s Demands for Write-Downs

[16:18] Japan, India, and France Establishing a Creditors Committee

[18:43] Chinese Participation in the Paris Club

[22:08] Role of Geopolitical Competition in Debt Relief

[02:14] China’s Implementation of Industrial Policy

[05:20] Industrial Policy to Achieve Foreign Policy Objectives

[08:02] Influence of Strategic Competition on Industrial Policy

[10:42] Efficacy of Chinese Industrial Policies

[14:17] Semiconductor Subsidies and Export Controls

[19:06] Chinese Countermeasures to Export Controls

[22:39] Assessment of U.S. Policy

[25:58] Forecast of Competition on Advanced Technologies

[29:50] Balance of Centralization and Adaptation

[01:39] Background of The Decoding China Dictionary

[04:30] Democracy with Chinese Characteristics

[06:34] Differing Interpretations of International Law

[08:32] Freedom of Religion Versus Freedom of Religious Belief

[10:28] Foreign Aid and China as a Developing Country

[12:01] Security in Chinese Parlance

[13:55] Transparency and its Uses in China

[16:19] Historic Revisionism and Domestic Policy

[18:39] Historic Revisionism and Foreign Policy

[19:44] Promotion of Chinese Interpretations Internationally

[23:52] Importance of Understanding Chinese Terminology

[05:30] China’s Scheduling of Fentanyl in 2019

[06:40] Difference Between Scheduling and Banning

[09:50] Lack of Cooperation Between China and Mexico 

[14:18] Chinese Counternarcotics Cooperation in Southeast Asia

[19:04] Possible Steps for China

[22:56] A Looming Fentanyl Crisis in China?

[25:43] Multilateral Approach to Counternarcotics

[05:56] Canberra's New Rhetoric

[07:54] Self-Censorship

[11:12] Decision Making Tightrope

[13:00] Darwin Port Lease

[14:00] Foreign Investment Review Board

[18:00] AUKUS Announcement in Washington

[20:13] Australia and the Quad

[23:19] Within the Albanese Government

[27:05] Australia on Taiwan

[31:21] America's China Policy

[06:02] China’s Political Model & Engaging Political Elites

[12:27] China-Africa Support at the UN

[14:47] Declining Chinese Investments

[16:04] Public Opinion and US-Chinese Competition

[22:19] Debt Strains on Relations

[25:45] Chinese Propaganda in Africa 

[02:31] Information Collection Capabilities

[07:25] Chinese Motivations

[10:40] Reaction to Shot Down Balloon

[13:59] Mil-Mil Dialogue

[16:59] Leverage Over China

[19:15] Guidance from Past Incidents

[22:08] Risk Reduction Measures

[24:47] Balloon Incident and Xi Jinping

[27:32] Wartime Use of Balloons

[05:12] 1961 Treaty on Friendship

[09:48] Chinese Economic Assistance

[12:33] Impact of US-DPRK Negotiations

[16:02] Sino-American Divergence on North Korea

[21:05] A Seventh Nuclear Test

[25:30] South Korean Nuclear Deterrence

[4:30] Qin Gang’s New Approaches  

[5:50] Internal & External Pressures on China’s Behavior?

[9:59] China-Australia Relations

[15:32] Allyship & Challenges in Southeast Asia  

[18:27] US-China Relations

[23:48] Indicators of Changes to China's Foreign Policy

[03:25] Chinese Engagement During the Past Decade

[05:54] Xi’s Trip to Saudi Arabia

[08:22] Security and the Sino-Middle Eastern Relationships

[11:05] Role of Multilateral Institutions

[14:09] Perceptions of Huawei

[18:12] Perceptions of Xinjiang

[22:39] The Sino-Iranian Relationship

[26:24] China’s Role in Conflicts

[4:45] Dependence on Russia’s Energy

[14:08] Oil Partnerships with the Gulf

[16:41] Decarbonization & Energy Security Goals

[19:41] China’s Overseas Energy Investments 

[22:23] US-China Energy & Climate Change Cooperation

[8:25] China’s Veto Power

[11:17] UN Security Council Reform

[13:53] China’s Funding Contributions

[18:13] China’s Leadership in UN Agencies

[25:21] Influence on WHO & COVID-19

[28:47] China’s Future Role in the UN

[5:18] Scholz’s Trip Aspirations

[8:40] German and European Perceptions of the trip

[11:33] Xi Jinping’s Gains & Sino-German Relationship

[13:20] Germany’s China Strategy

[21:38] Germany’s Changing Taiwan Policy

[3:27] The International Environment and Implications

[7:59] Taiwan

[13:21] China’s Reform of the Global Governance System

[16:23] The PLA and China’s Military Modernization

[20:51] US-China Competition: Xi Jinping’s Approach Going Forward

[23:48] Personnel Arrangements

[5:22] Evolution of CCP’s Tactics, and Investments

[8:22] Levels and Effectiveness of Chinese Media Influence

[18:03] Approaches in Less/Non-Free Countries

[20:02] Government, Civil Society, & Journalists’ Resilience

[26:29] Erosion of Governance 

[6:22] Takeaways from Xi Jinping’s Visit to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

[10:16] Russia-China Dynamic in Central Asia

[15:07] Public Attitudes Toward China

[17:34] Xinjiang and Government Responses

[19:08] China’s Approach to Central Asia’s Energy Resources

[21:33] Turkey and Expanding SCO Membership

[3:50] Role of China's Industrial Policy

[9:08] Implications of Variables Affecting Supply Chains

[13:37] US Policy Response and the CHIPS Act

[20:36] Made in China 2025

[24:54] Economic Coercion, Vulnerabilities, and an Effective Response

[5:43] People’s Liberation Army and Advanced Planning

[7:20] A New Normal?

[11:44] Learning from the Recent Drills

[13:58] China’s Interpretation of US Response

[16:40] Mobilization, Confidence, and Capabilities

[26:43] US Congress’ Taiwan Policy Act and China’s Reactions

[5:43] China’s Vision for the International Order

[8:49] GSI’s Relation to US-China Competition

[10:45] "Meat and Bones" over Time

[14:47] “Indivisible Security”

[16:37] India and Others' Perspectives on GSI

[21:27] Sino-Russian Alignment: Implications for China’s Global Security Governance Ambitions?

[1:30] Duterte’s China Policy

[4:36] Change under the New Marcos Government?

[6:53] Philippines’ Relations with the United States

[8:45] Public Opinion in the Philippines toward China

[14:10] Joint China-Philippines Energy Exploration Talks

[17:15] Railway Projects Loan Agreements with China

[19:14] Future Developments

In today’s episode of China Global, Bonnie Glaser speaks with Dr. Yu Jie to discuss the GDI, which like most PRC initiatives, began as a bumper sticker and was described using vague and abstract language. Dr. Yu is a senior research fellow on China in the Asia-Pacific Program at Chatham House in London.

[1:26] Beijing’s Objectives

[5:54] GDI's Relation to the BRI

[7:34] China's Resources into GDI

[10:31] UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development

[14:06] Group of Friends of the GDI and Interested Countries

[20:04] Origin of the GDI

In today’s episode of China Global, Dr. Evan Medeiros joins Bonnie Glaser to discuss the Biden Administration’s strategy toward China. Dr. Medeiros is the Penner Family Chair in Asia Studies in the School of Foreign Service and the Cling Family Distinguished Fellow in U.S.-China Studies at Georgetown University. He previously served in the Obama administration, where he served on the staff of the National Security Council as Director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia, and then as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Asia.

[1:45] Objectives of the US-China Strategy under the Biden Administration

[5:58] Differences between the Biden and the Trump Approach toward China

[9:55] Beijing’s Response to Blinken’s May 26 Address and China’s Perception of the US

[13:18] Potential Opportunities for Cooperation between the US and China

[17:24] Critiques of the Biden Administration’s US-China Strategy

[26:21] China’s Strategy toward the United States

To discuss China’s policy toward and relations with both North and South Korea, Bonnie Glaser speaks with Dr. Seong-hyon Lee, a visiting scholar at Harvard University’s Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies and a fellow at the George H.W. Bush Foundation for US-China Relations.

Marker Notes

China's Relations with South Korea 1:51.442

China's Response to Missile Tests 10:08.780

China's Relationship with North Korea 14:02.939

Looking Ahead 26:16.467

In this episode, Bonnie Glaser speaks with Professor Anne-Marie Brady, professor at the University of Canterbury in New Zealand on China’s interests, activities, and role in the Pacific Islands as well as the recent deal between China and the Solomon Islands. Among other issues, Professor Brady is a specialist in Chinese politics and China-Pacific relations, and her groundbreaking work on Chinese interference in New Zealand and other countries is globally renowned.

Marker Notes

[1:44] China's Interests and Activities in the Pacific Islands

[9:00] Recent Deal between China and the Solomon Islands

[13:56] China-Pacific Relations

[21:30] Attention from the United States

Ambassador Kausikan is a former Ambassador-at-Large in Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Prior to this role, he served as the Second Permanent Secretary and then Permanent Secretary of the Foreign Ministry. He has held a variety of appointments during his career, including as Singapore's Permanent Representative to the United Nations in New York and as Ambassador to the Russian Federation. Currently, Ambassador Kausikan serves as Chairman of the Middle East Institute, an institute affiliated with the National University of Singapore. 

On April 1, the 23rd EU-China summit took place via video conference. President of the European Council, Charles Michel, and President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, accompanied by High Representative Josep Borrell, met with Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang in the morning and Chinese President Xi Jinping in the afternoon. Borell later described the meeting as a dialogue of the deaf—the Chinese side had little interest in talking about the war in Ukraine, preferring to discuss shared EU and Chinese interests. In an effort to drive a wedge between the US and the EU, Xi also called on the EU to form its own perception of China and adopt an independent China policy.

In this episode, Bonnie Glaser speaks with Janka Oertel, Director of the Asia Program at the European Council on Foreign Relations to further discuss the April 1 EU-China summit and analyze the overall EU-China relationship.

Emily Feng joins Bonnie Glaser on China Global to discuss the challenges facing reporters in China today, as well as trends in Chinese society and Xi Jinping’s first ten years in power. Emily is NPR’s Beijing Correspondent after having previously worked for the Financial Times. She covers everything from semiconductors to girl bands and Chinese coal mines and has earned many awards, including a Human Rights Press Award and a Gracie Award for her coverage of the Covid-19 pandemic.