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“This was an election about issues, and the economy and immigration played the biggest roles. Trump won on a clear message of middle- and working-class economics,” saidMark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “But while he’s won over people up to 54% and Republicans are supportive of his policies, he has to be careful in over-projecting his mandate – underneath is still a division of the election that has not yet resolved itself.”

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The new poll found that the presidential horserace remains close at 49-48, with Harris leading and up 1 point from September. Trump, however, leads in battleground states among registered, likely, and early voters. The poll also covers public opinion on policy issues and foreign affairs.

Other key findings include:

HORSERACE HAS HARRIS +1 BUT TRUMP LEADING IN BATTLEGROUND STATES  

81% of registered voters say they will definitely vote in the election (Democrat: 85%; Republican: 84%; Independent: 72%).

Harris holds a 1.7-point lead among likely voters, but in battleground states, Trump has a 2-point lead among both likely and registered voters.

There is a 10-point gender gap with female voters favoring Harris. The gap for Latino voters has widened from 7 points in September to 17 points (Harris: 54%; Trump: 37%; Don’t Know/Unsure: 9%).

50% of voters say they will vote on Election Day, 45% say they will vote early, and 5% do not plan to vote. Mail-in voting behavior is nearly even across party ID (Democrat: 49%; Republican: 42%; Independent: 44%), markedly different from that in November 2020 (Democrat: 54%; Republican: 35%; Independent: 45%).

Among those voting early, 51% voted for Harris and 43% voted for Trump (in battleground states, Trump: 48%; Harris: 47%).  

14% of voters say they are still weighing their choices, including 25% of Independents.

Democrats and Republicans remain neck-in-neck in the congressional election (Democrat: 51%; Republican: 49%).

CANDIDATE STRENGTHS ON THE ISSUES CONTINUE TO VARY WIDELY

Trump’s perceived policy stances align more with those of the general public on issues like tougher law enforcement and opposition to open borders, the switch to electric vehicles, free healthcare for illegal immigrants, and men who have transitioned to women competing in women’s sports.

63% of voters are against a national ban on abortion. Most believe Harris is against such a ban (73%, +1 from September) and Trump is for it (54%, -1).  

Though many voters say Harris is to the left (53%) and Trump is to the right (50%) of them politically, 59% say they would rather vote for someone to the right of them.

Voters believe Trump would do a better job on specific foreign policy issues like the Ukraine/Russia war (+9), standing up to China (+13), and the Israel/Hamas war (+10) over Harris, and 70% believe he has experience in foreign affairs. But 51% of voters believe Harris is better equipped to be commander-in-chief over Trump.  

CURRENT EVENTS HAVE MINOR EFFECTS ON CANDIDATE PERCEPTIONS  

85% of voters say CBS should release the full transcript of Harris’ 60 Minutes interview. More broadly, 51% of voters say recent Harris interviews have helped her, and 49% say they have hurt her (an 8-point gap among Independents, with more thinking they hurt her).  

Harris holds leads over Trump on 10 out of 15 presidential characteristics including right temperament (+15), relates to the working class (+12), and honest (+10), while Trump is seen as more experienced (+10) and a fighter (+6).

58% of voters say they were satisfied with FEMA’s response to recent hurricanes, and 67% of voters believe FEMA money should not have gone to housing illegal immigrants.

38% of voters say JD Vance won the vice-presidential debate, while 35% of voters say Tim Walz won.  

67% of voters believe billionaires mostly support Trump, while 33% of voters believe they support Harris.  

APPROVAL RATINGS AND MOOD OF COUNTRY REMAIN UNCHANGED, WITH ECONOMY TOP-OF-MIND

Biden’s approval rating sits at 42%, unchanged from the last three months, while 51% of voters approve of the job Trump did as President (-1 from September) and 49% approve of the job Harris is doing as Vice-President (+2).

51% of voters believe they will be better off economically under a new Trump administration, while 49% hold this belief for a Harris administration.

Inflation and immigration remain the top two national issues for voters, with 46% of voters saying inflation is most important personally (Democrat: 39%, Republican: 52%; Independent: 47%).  

61% of voters say the U.S. economy is on the wrong track, staying relatively consistent since the summer of 2022. 47% of voters say their personal financial situation is getting worse (rural: 57%; suburban: 48%; urban: 40%).

VOTERS SUPPORT ISRAEL’S STRIKES ON HEZBOLLAH AND RESPONSE TO IRAN, BELIEVING IRAN IS A SOURCE OF CONFLICT AND TERROR IN THE REGION

52% of voters say Hezbollah is a terrorist organization, with 54% of 18-24 y.o. and 46% of 25-34 y.o. voters saying they are unsure.

73% of voters say Iran is a regional sponsor of terror in the Middle East and blame Iran over Israel for escalating conflict, but 53% of 18-24 y.o. and 46% of 25-34 y.o. voters say Iran is not a regional sponsor of terror.

63% of voters believe Israel is justified in responding to the recent Iranian missile attack (18-24: 45%; 25-34: 50%; 65+: 77%).

63% of voters say campus protests in the U.S. are mostly about saving lives in Gaza rather than supporting Hamas and Hezbollah.

65% of voters say authors who support Hamas and Hezbollah should not be given airtime on national TV.

Download the full results here.

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The new poll found that the presidential horse race now sits at 50-50. Harris' favorability and job approval ratings remain at 47%, while Trump holds a 47% favorability rating and 52% job approval rating. Voters believe Harris would do a better job on abortion, climate change, and racial equality, while Trump would do a better job on the economy, immigration, crime, and China. The poll also covers public opinion on the economy and foreign policy.

Other key findings include:

CONGRESSIONAL AND PRESIDENTIAL HORSE RACES BOTH NECK-AND-NECK

The presidential horse race is tied at 50-50.

Both presidential candidates are winning their respective party bases: male (50%), white (54%), and rural (59%) voters favor Trump, while Black (71%), urban (57%), and college-educated (52%) voters favor Harris.

Independent voters are split almost evenly and 33% of them say they are still weighing their final choice.

50% of Hispanic voters say they will vote for Harris, while 43% say they will vote for Trump — only a 7-point gap. 7% of Hispanic voters say they are still unsure.

CANDIDATES ARE PERCEIVED AS WIDELY DIFFERENT ON THE ISSUES

Major differences emerged between how voters see Trump and how they see Harris on the issues. Harris is seen more often than not as favoring open borders, compassionate enforcement of laws, free healthcare to immigrants, and the switch to electric vehicles. Trump is seen as a stronger ally to Israel, harsher on China, and more of a defender of free speech on social media than Harris.

Trump is seen as favoring a national ban on abortion while Harris is seen as opposing such a ban.

49% of voters say Harris is to the left of them politically, while 50% say Trump is to the right of them politically.

LESS THAN HALF OF VOTERS APPROVE OF CURRENT ADMINISTRATION

Biden approval rating stayed steady at 42% from July. Among minority voters, 66% of Black voters approve, but only 39% of Hispanic voters approve.

Less than half of voters approve of Biden's performance across all issues, with racial equity his highest (47%) and the Israel-Hamas conflict his lowest (34%).

47% of voters approve of the job Harris is doing as Vice President, with high approval from Democrats (87%), Black (71%), and urban (60%) voters.

PERCEPTIONS TOWARD ECONOMY REMAIN PESSIMISTIC

63% of voters believe the U.S. economy is on the wrong track and 62% characterize it as weak, consistent with perceptions over the past year.

42% of voters named inflation as the most important issue facing the country today, up 5 points from July.

48% of voters say their personal financial situation is getting worse, especially among female (53%), 55-64 year-old (55%), and rural (57%) voters.

SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL OVER HAMAS UNCHANGED; YOUNG VOTERS SEEM UNINFORMED ON VENEZUELA ELECTIONS AND MANY FAVOR MADURO

69% of voters say a ceasefire of the Israel-Hamas war should only happen after Hamas is removed from power and all hostages are released (ages 18-24: 45%; ages 65+: 84%). When asked to choose between Israel and Hamas without the choice to remain undecided, 79% continue to favor Israel while 21% favor Hamas.

71% of voters say the execution of six hostages was the fault of Hamas over that of the Israeli government.

More than half of voters have at least heard about the Venezuelan election, but 38% of voters say the Venezuelan election was not stolen by incumbent President Nicolás Maduro (ages 18-24: 49%; ages 25-34: 48%; ages 65+: 27%).

57% of voters say they support the protesters in Venezuela, and 60% support U.S. sanctions on Venezuela for allegations of election fraud, but 56% believe the U.S. government should not engage in another international issue.

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Takeaways

The Democratic Party has experienced a renewal with the selection of Kamala Harris as the candidate.

Harris has seen a significant improvement in her popularity and has the potential to win the election.

Policy and performance will be key factors in the election, with Trump having an advantage on the economy.

Attacks on Harris may focus on her progressive policies and lack of foreign policy experience.

The selection of Harris' running mate is not expected to have a significant impact on the election.

The electorate remains stable, with strong support for Israel and dissatisfaction with the economy.

Chapters

(00:00) The Renewal of the Democratic Party

(01:07) The Popularity and Potential of Kamala Harris

(02:22) Paths to Victory for Harris

(05:06) The Importance of Policy and Performance

(06:25) Likability and Potential Attacks on Harris

(08:24) The Selection of Harris' Running Mate

11:00The Stability of the Electorate

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DEBATE HURTS BIDEN, HELPS TRUMP

• 74% of voters think Biden is too old to be President, an 11-point increase after the debate.
• 66% of voters have doubts about Biden’s mental fitness for office, a 12-point increase after the debate.
• Voters are on net 7 points more likely to vote for Trump after the debate and 20 points less likely to vote for Biden.

ATTITUDES TOWARD ECONOMY WORSEN

• 62% of voters characterize their personal economics as fair or poor, up 7 points from May.
• 52% of voters say their personal financial situation is getting worse, especially among Republican (69%) and rural (63%) voters.
• Biden’s approval on handling inflation dropped to 34%, his lowest in two years.

TRUMP CONTINUES TO LEAD HORSE RACE

• Trump leads Biden by 4 points in the horserace, down 2 points from last month.
• 41% of voters (a plurality) say Trump’s guilty verdict in the New York hush money case has no impact on their vote, while 31% say they are more likely to vote for Trump and 27% say less likely.
• Marco Rubio and Tim Scott are the VP nominees who would be most helpful to Trump.

IMMIGRATION-CRIME NEXUS CONTINUES TO CONCERN VOTERS

• Voters say the top issues caused by mass immigration are an increase in violence/crime (57%), a strain on resources such as healthcare and education (57%), and a rise in homelessness (55%).
• 56% of voters think Biden’s recent asylum ban for migrants caught illegally crossing the U.S.-Mexico border is “too little, too late.”
• 52% of voters support Biden’s recent executive order aimed at expediting citizenship for the undocumented spouses of U.S. citizens.

SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL REMAINS HIGH

• 64% of voters are paying close attention to the Israel-Hamas war, down 9 points from May, but support for Israel remains consistent at 80%.
• 67% of voters say Israel should retaliate against Hezbollah until they stop firing rockets into the north (ages 18-24: 53%; ages 65+: 85%).

Download the full results here. As always, I welcome your questions and comments.

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00:00 Biden's Job Approval and Economy

03:19 Impact of Border and Immigration

05:42 Israel-Hamas Conflict and Ratings

06:39 The Challenge of Swing Voters

10:29 Crucial Presidential Debates

13:23 The Hush Money Trial and Trump's Campaign

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ELECTION FUNDAMENTALS SEE LITTLE CHANGE BUT TRUMP LEAD WIDENS

• Immigration and inflation continue to be voters’ top concerns, tied at 35% each this month.
• 55% of voters believe Trump has committed crimes for which he should be convicted, but 55% say separately that they approve of the job he did as president.
• 44% job approval for Biden shows 11-point deficit in job approval compared to Trump at 55%.

AMERICANS PREFER FOCUS ON DOMESTIC RATHER THAN FOREIGN AFFAIRS

• 59% of voters say this is a time in world affairs that enables the U.S. to focus primarily on domestic issues, rather than spend more on military and foreign affairs (Democrats: 58%; Republicans: 57%; Independents: 63%).
• 58% say the U.S. does not have the leadership necessary to handle world affairs now.
• 56% support sending $26 billion in aid to Israel; 49% support sending $8 billion in aid to the Indo-Pacific, including Taiwan; and 48% support sending $61 billion in aid to Ukraine.

GENERATIONAL SCHISM ON ISRAEL REMAINS SALIENT DESPITE GENERAL SUPPORT UNCHANGED

• 80% of voters say they support Israel over Hamas (ages 18-24 57% to 43%)
• 71% say the crisis in Gaza has been created by Hamas, not Israel.
• 78% say Hamas should be removed from running Gaza.
• 72% of voters believe Israel should move forward with an operation in Rafah in order to finish the war against Hamas, while doing its best to avoid civilian casualties (ages 18-24: 57%; ages 65+: 84%).
• 68% oppose a ceasefire unless it means Hamas would be allowed to continue holding hostages and running Gaza (ages 18-24: 66% still support). 70% support a “permanent ceasefire” but that support is contingent on hostage release and end of Hamas rule.
• In the context of the recent Iran attacks against Israel, 80% believe Iran must be stopped from having nuclear weapons (ages 18-24: 43%; ages 65+: 96%).

MOST AMERICANS DISAPPROVE OF UNIVERSITIES AMID CAMPUS PROTESTS

• 80% of voters believe students and professors who call for violence towards Jews should be suspended (ages 18-24: 59%; ages 65+: 92%).
• 64% believe the leaders of private higher education institutions are not doing enough to prevent antisemitism (ages 18-24: 37%; ages 65+: 80%).
• 64% believe there is a problem with what institutions of higher learning are teaching students today (ages 18-24: 47%; ages 65+: 74%).

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President Joe Biden's overall approval rating remained at 45%, while 55% of voters say they approve of Donald Trump's job as president. Immigration and inflation remained voters' top two concerns for the third month in a row.

Stay tuned for the next Harvard CAPS / Harris poll podcast debrief at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or other podcast platforms. 

Other key findings include: 

VOTERS SPLIT ON BIDEN'S STATE OF THE UNION BUT RACE NARROWS SLIGHTLY

• 52% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Biden's State of the Union address.
• 54% of voters, including 70% of non-watchers, think Biden did not address the issues that they and their families are concerned about in the speech.
• 53% believe Biden delivered the speech effectively.
• Trump is leading Biden by 2 points in the general head-to-head, down from 6 points last month. 20% of Independents say they are unsure.

VOTERS ARE FINE WITH "ILLEGAL" AND "UNDOCUMENTED" TERMS AS IMMIGRATION REMAINS TOP CONCERN

• 73% of voters believe it is appropriate to refer to those who enter the U.S. without permission as "illegal immigrants"; 68% believe it is appropriate to refer to them as "undocumented immigrants."
• 63% of voters have heard of the story of murdered Georgia nursing student Laken Riley and 70% believe the case shows that the U.S. needs stricter immigration policies.

TIKTOK BAN IS DIVIDED BY GENERATION, NOT PARTY

• 64% of voters believe the risks posed by TikTok to Americans' personal security and the country's national security outweigh the benefits of using TikTok for American brands and content creators (ages 18-24: 49%; ages 65+: 85%).
• 65% of voters support the bill that would ban TikTok in the U.S. if ByteDance does not sell it to a U.S. government-approved buyer (ages 18-24: 43%; ages 65+: 84%).
• Voters are most concerned about potential election interference from Russia (74%), China (73%), Iran (60%), Hamas (56%) and tech companies (51%).

ISRAEL SUPPORT REMAINS STRONG WITH SCHUMER CRITICIZED FOR CALL TO REMOVE NETANYAHU

• Israel continues to receive high support, 79%, against Hamas.
• 52% of voters say it was inappropriate for Senator Chuck Schumer to call for new elections in Israel to remove Benjamin Netanyahu; but 54% believe this criticism of Israel was fair.
• Netanyahu has a higher net favorable rating in the U.S. (+2 points) than Schumer (-10 points).

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President Joe Biden’s overall approval rating rose to 45% while his immigration approval remained at 35%, his lowest on any issue. Immigration and inflation are the top two issues for voters for the second month in a row.

Stay tuned for the next Harvard CAPS / Harris poll podcast debrief at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or other podcast platforms. 

Other key findings include: 

IMMIGRATION CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE FRONT AND CENTER

• Voters say Biden’s biggest failure was creating an open borders policy and a historic flood of immigrants. (Voters say Biden’s biggest accomplishment was lowering the cost of prescription drugs.)
• 62% of voters support impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, including 48% of Democrats.
• 55% of voters supported Trump’s calls to stop the Senate’s compromise immigration bill, which would have allowed 5000 migrants to enter per day until new measures kicked in.

INFLATION LOOKS STICKY TO VOTERS

• 71% of voters think price increases and inflation have proven to be sticky and are here to stay – including 58% of Democrats and 87% of Republicans.
• 45% of voters say their personal financial situation is getting worse – down from 64% in summer 2022.
• 42% say inflation is the most important issue to them personally, up 4 points from January.

VOTERS ARE CONCERNED BY SPECIAL COUNSEL REPORT ON BIDEN’S AGE AND MEMORY ISSUES

• 59% of voters say age and memory lapses are inadequate justification for Special Counsel Robert Hur not pursuing criminal charges in the classified documents case.
• 76% of voters, including 64% of Democrats, want the transcript of Hur’s interview with Biden to be released publicly.
• 71% of voters, including 50% of Democrats, would consider it an impeachable offense if it were true that Biden worked with his son and brother to help bring in multimillion-dollar fees from China, Russia and Ukraine while he was vice president.

TRUMP KEEPS LEAD DESPITE LEGAL CHALLENGES

• Trump beats Biden by 6 points in the head-to-head matchup.
• 57% of voters say they approve of the job Trump did as president.
• 54% think the New York judge’s recent ruling that Trump defrauded state banks was fair.

ISRAEL SUPPORT REMAINS STRONG

• 82% of voters support Israel over Hamas (with 72% support among 18-24-year-olds, their highest percentage to date).
• 63% of voters support Israel continuing its ground invasion into Southern Gaza to root out the final elements of Hamas.

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President Joe Biden's approval rating is 43% with slight upticks in economic sentiment. The generation gap on the Israel-Hamas war remains prevalent as 81% of all voters but only 50% of 18-24-year-olds side with Israel. The poll also covers public opinion on immigration and the 2024 horse race. Download key results here.

"There is bipartisan consensus among voters on many issues right now, from immigration and increased border security to support for Israel and Ukraine," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "The party that compromises effectively could win over swing voters who remain conflicted between different cross-pressures about the economy and the weaknesses of the leading candidates."

AMERICANS THINK THE U.S. SHOULD SUPPORT BOTH ISRAEL AND UKRAINE

• 65% of voters think the U.S. should be supporting Israel in its war against Hamas; 65% separately think the U.S. should be supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia.
• 54% of voters support giving $14 billion in aid to Israel; 49% support giving an additional $50 billion in aid to Ukraine. Republicans are most likely to support the aid to Israel and Democrats most support aid to Ukraine.
• 65% of voters, including 51% of Democrats, believe the Republicans should hold up aid to both Israel and Ukraineto get additional border security measures.

VOTERS WANT MORE ACTION ON IMMIGRATION

• Biden's approval rating on immigration dropped 8 points to 38% in the last month.
• 57% of voters believe Trump had better immigration policies than Biden.
• Only 8% of voters knew that over 3 million people crossed the border illegally in the past year; the majority believed the number was under 500,000.

VOTERS THINK THEY ARE WORSE OFF UNDER BIDEN ALTHOUGH VIEWS ON ECONOMY ARE TICKING UP

• 55% of voters say they are worse off personally during Biden's presidency and 61% say they were better off personally during Trump's presidency.
• 44% say the economy is strong today, up 6 points in the past six months.
• Inflation remains the most important issue to voters personally (chosen by 40%).

TRUMP MAINTAINS LEAD IN HORSE RACE WITH WIDESPREAD DOUBTS ABOUT HIM AND BIDEN

• 56% of voters believe Trump will act like a dictator if reelected, but 59% believe Democrats are trying to unfairly scare voters by labeling Trump as a dictator.
• 72% believe a vote for Biden is really a vote for Kamala Harris because he will not likely serve a full second term.
• Trump leads the head-to-head matchup against Biden by 5 points and leads by 7 points when including third-party candidates.

VOTERS WANT HUNTER BIDEN TO AGREE TO DEPOSITION

• 81% of voters, including 72% of Democrats, believe Hunter Biden should appear for a deposition by Congress if asked to explain his business dealings.

GENERATION GAP ON ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR EXTENDS TO UNIVERSITY PRESIDENTS AND POLICIES

• 62% of voters feel university presidents did not go far enough to condemn antisemitism on their campuses in their Congressional testimony (ages 18-24: 67% feel the presidents did go far enough).
• 74% believe students who call for the genocide of Jews should face actions for violating university rules (ages 18-24: 47%).
• 76% believe Jewish students on campus are facing harassment (ages 18-24: 68%).
• 67% of 18-24-year-olds believe Jews as a class are oppressors and should be treated as such (in contrast, 73% of all voters believe this is a false ideology).

The December Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on December 13-14, 2023, among 2,034 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms. 

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"It is easy to lose sight of how much support there really is among American voters for Israel and for President Biden staying strongly pro-Israel – although misinformation on Israel and Hamas remains prevalent, especially among younger people," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "Biden's Israelpolicy could help him pick up swing voters, while the Democrats continue to win elections on abortion since they come across to swing voters as the party of personal freedom on this issue."

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK TICKS UP SLIGHTLY

• 42% of voters think the U.S. economy is strong today, the highest since February 2023.
• 30% say their personal financial situation is improving, up 6 points since July.
• 47% are optimistic about their life in the next year, up 4 points since last month.

ISRAEL CONTINUES TO RECEIVE MAJORITY SUPPORT

• 80% of voters support Israel over Hamas (ages 18-24: 55%; ages 65+: 95%).
• 61% of voters support Israel continuing until Hamas is defeated and the hostages are released (ages 18-24: 51%; ages 65+: 81%).
• 78% of voters support Israel calling for 4-hour partial ceasefires each day, but 51% did not know about these ceasefires (ages 18-24: 59% support, 64% did not know).

VOTERS CONTINUE TO APPROVE OF BIDEN'S ISRAEL POLICY

• 66% of voters think Biden should support Israel rather than pull back (ages 18-24: 39%; ages 65+: 84%).
• 65% of voters favor the $14 billion aid package to Israel (ages 18-24: 57%; ages 65+: 75%).
• 63% of voters think Biden is doing enough to protect Palestinian civilians (ages 18-24: 46%; ages 65+: 64%).

MISINFORMATION ON HAMAS AND ISRAEL'S LEVELS OF FREEDOM AND TOLERANCE REMAINS SIZABLE AMONG YOUNG VOTERS

• 81% of voters think Hamas uses civilians as human shields (ages 18-24: 68%; ages 65+: 95%).
• 78% of voters believe Hamas is an authoritarian ruler (ages 18-24: 59%; ages 65+: 96%).
• 69% of voters believe Israel a democracy (ages 18-24: 56%; ages 65+: 84%).
• 51% of 18-24-year-old voters think Israel allows gay people to live together openly; 45% think Hamas allows the same.

6-WEEK ABORTION BAN IS NOT POPULAR

• 59% of voters say women should have the sole right to decide whether to have an abortion for any reason up to 6 weeks of pregnancy.
• When asked about the prospect of federal abortion legislation, 39% of voters think Congress should pass a law guaranteeing access similar to Roe v. Wade; 35% want Congress not to pass any law; only 27% want a Congressional law restricting abortion to 6 weeks or less.

AMERICANS WANT MORE LAW ENFORCEMENT AS CRIME CONCERN STAYS HIGH

• 63% of voters think you need to have a gun today in case you're attacked by criminals – including 54% of Democrats.
• 83% of voters across the political spectrum think shoplifting laws should be strictly, not more laxly, enforced.

TRUMP STILL LEADS PRIMARY AND GENERAL MATCHUPS DESPITE LOOMING CONVICTION THREATS

• Trump continues to lead the GOP primary field with 67% support and the general election match-up against Biden by 6 points.
• Voters are split 50-50 on whether Trump will be convicted or not; 89% of Trump primary supporters say they would vote for him even if he were convicted of a crime.
• But the Trump vote may be softer than people think: 63% of Trump primary supporters say they have at least some chance of ending up voting for someone else.

The November Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on November 15-16, 2023, among 2,851 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms. 

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48% OF 18–24-YEAR-OLDS SIDE MORE WITH HAMAS; WAR VIEWS DEFINED BY GENERATIONS, NOT PARTY

BIDEN APPROVAL RISES ON ISRAEL RESPONSE

NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass. – Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the October Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.

Israel receives overwhelming support from Americans: 84% of voters support Israel over Hamas and 88% believe Israel has a right to respond militarily against Hamas. President Joe Biden edges up to 44% approval as 58% approve of the job he is doing on Israel. Republicans in Congress have hurt themselves significantly in the breakdown over the Speaker of the House as Congressional and Republican ratings sink. Download key results here.

“Americans strongly support Israel against Hamas’ terrorist attacks by 80 percent or more. However, there is a split not among the parties but among the generations as 95% of seniors support Israel while support drops to only 52% among the youngest voter group,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “President Biden’s vocal support of Israel is winning approval from both sides, while the Republicans’ chaos in the House is doing the opposite.”

AMERICANS OVERWHELMINGLY SUPPORT ISRAELAND ITS RIGHT TO RESPOND TO HAMAS ATTACKS

• 84% of voters side more with Israel than with Hamas (ages 18-24: 52%; ages 65+: 95%).

• 88% of voters think Israel has the responsibility to protect its citizens by retaliating against Hamas (ages 18-24: 65%; ages 65+: 97%).

• 84% of voters believe Israel has the right to defend itself by launching air strikes in heavily populated Palestinian areas with warnings to those citizens (ages 18-24: 62%; ages 65+: 93%).

• 70% of voters think Israel should eliminate Hamas, not end its campaign against Hamas now (ages 18-24: 48%; ages 65+: 82%).

• 63% of voters believe it was right for Israel to cut off power, water and food to Gaza until its hostages are returned (ages 18-24: 41%; ages 65+: 70%).

• 61% of voters say there is no moral equivalency between Hamas’ murders and Israel’s actions (ages 18-24: 36% – the majority believe both sides have equally just causes; ages 65+: 80%).

SIGNIFICANT NUMBERS OF YOUNG VOTERS HAVE THEIR OWN FACTS, DENY ATROCITIES COMMITTED

• 17% of voters think it is a false story that Hamas terrorists killed 1200 Israeli civilians by shooting, raping and beheading people (ages 18-24: 32%; ages 65+: 10%).

• 46% of voters say that Israel, not Hamas, rules Gaza (ages 18-24: 53%; ages 65+: 32%).

• 33% of voters think the explosion at a Gaza hospital explosion was caused by an Israeli airstrike rather than a terrorist rocket that went off-course (ages 18-24: 45%; ages 65+: 13%).

BIDEN GETS GOOD RATINGS ON ISRAEL POLICY AS VOTERS THINK U.S. HAS RESPONSIBILITY TO HELP

• 58% of voters approve of Biden’s foreign policy on Israel(ages 18-24: 52%; ages 65+: 61%).

• 64% of voters say the U.S. has a responsibility to militarily support Israel while it is under attack by terrorist groups(ages 18-24: 49%; ages 65+: 70%).

• While Biden did not mention the U.S. hostages in his October 19 Oval Office address, 71% of voters think the U.S. has the responsibility to bring to safety the over a dozen Americans abducted by Hamas (ages 18-24: 42%; ages 65+: 81%).

• 59% of voters say the U.S. should directly intervene if Iran attacks Israel (ages 18-24: 40%; ages 65+: 64%).

REPUBLICAN VOTERS DISAPPROVE OF MCCARTHY OUSTER

• 62% of GOP voters say the Republicans who ousted McCarthy are hurting the Republican Party.

• 57% of GOP voters say that if House Republicans cannot elect another speaker before government funding runs out in 30 days, they should find a different candidate other than McCarthy.

TRUMP LEADS THREE-WAY RACE WITH BIDEN AND RFK JR.

• Donald Trump continues to lead the GOP primary race with 60% support.

• Trump continues to lead Biden in a head-to-head contest, 46% to 41%.

• Trump also leads in a three-way race against Biden and RFK Jr., 39% to 33% to 19%, respectively.

The October Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on October 18-19, 2023, among 2,116 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. ​Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms. 

About The Harris Poll & HarrisX

The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.

HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies 
The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics.  Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.

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President Joe Biden’s approval rating remains at 42% after a new impeachment inquiry, which 53% of voters split along party lines support. The poll also covers the 2024 horse race and public opinion on issues such as illegal immigration and parental rights. Download key results here. 

“After a quiet summer, the electorate remains unhappy on the economy and a slew of other issues,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “Since voters have hardened views on Biden and Trump, the primaries have not gotten competitive yet either.”

INFLATION FRUSTRATIONS REMAIN

• Voters continue to say inflation is the most important issue facing the country (33%), as well as the most important issue to them personally (39%). 
• 64% say Bidenomics is not working.
• 75% of voters, including over 70% from each party, think the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates enough. 

VOTERS SPLIT ON BIDEN IMPEACHMENT INQUIRY

• 53% of voters support the impeachment inquiry into Biden, with 51% of Independents against.
• 57% say Biden helped Hunter get influence peddling contracts and 60% think Biden has made false or misleading statements about Hunter’s business dealings.
• The country is split 50-50 on whether Biden’s impeachment inquiry is politically motivated or raises legitimate legal questions; voters are split 50-50 on the same question regarding Donald Trump’s prosecutions.

TRUMP CONSOLIDATES SUPPORT AND LEADS BIDEN IN HEAD-TO-HEAD

• Trump increases his lead among Republican voters to 57%, while Ron DeSantis continues falling to a distant second with 10%.
• In head-to-head presidential matchups, Biden loses to Trump by 5, Nikki Haley by 4, and Tim Scott by 2; he defeats Mike Pence by 6, Ron DeSantis by 4, and Vivek Ramaswamy by 2. 

AMERICANS FIND AGREEMENT ON IMMIGRATION AND PARENTAL RIGHTS

• 71% of voters, including 53% of Democrats, think illegal immigration to the U.S. is getting worse. 
• 87% of voters, including over 80% of each party, agree parents have a right to know if their children want to transition their gender.
• There is still goodwill towards teachers: 60% of voters, including 59% of Independents, say teachers are mostly trying to help kids get a better education, not push an ideology onto them.

The September Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll survey was conducted online within the United States from September 12-14, 2023, among 2,103 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. ​ Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at 

https://www.markpennpolls.com/

 or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.

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Download the full report - key results, crosstabs and key findings.

The Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll is conducted by The Harris Poll online within the United States every monthly and captures the responses of over 2,000 registered voters. The results reflect a nationally representative sample. Results were weighted for age within gender, region, race/ethnicity, marital status, household size, income, employment, and education where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

The Co-Directors of the Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll are:

Stephen D. Ansolabehere – Professor of Government & Director, Center for American Political Studies, Harvard University

Dritan Nesho – Fellow, Harvard Institute for Quantitative Social Science & CEO of HarrisX

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MOST AMERICANS UNHAPPY

Voters remain politically split 50-50 but just about 100% are unhappy with the direction of the country, the economy, and their political leaders. Biden’s approval is frozen in place despite the debt ceiling deal and a recovering stock market; yet Trump’s numbers are also unshaken after an unprecedented federal indictment.

BIDEN AND TRUMP STRENGTHEN THEIR POSITIONS

- President Joe Biden’s approval rating remains at 43% and Donald Trump continues to lead their 2024 matchup, by 6 points this month. The poll covers public opinion on the Trump federal indictment, electric vehicles and policy issues like parental rights.

AMERICANS THINK THE CASE AGAINST TRUMP IS STRONG BUT WANT A PARDON
- 58% of Americans think the case against Trump is strong, including 85% of Democrats, 60% of Independents, and 30% of Republicans.
- Voters are split 51-49, down party lines, on whether Trump’s indictment is reason to withdraw from the 2024 race.
- If Trump is convicted, 53% of voters – driven by 80% of Republicans – support pardoning him in the interest of national unity.

MORE VOTERS PREFER TO LIVE IN A STATE WITH A REPUBLICAN-LEANING SLATE OF POLICIES
- 64% of voters say they would want to live in a state that cuts taxes, encourages public charter schools, does not allow gender surgery for minors, and restricts most abortions after six weeks.
- By contrast 66% of voters – including a majority of all parties – say they would not want to live in a state that has increasing taxes, restricts legal gun ownership more strictly, allows abortion up to 9 months, allows minors to get gender surgery without parental permission, encourages undocumented immigrants, and allows felons to vote.

TRUMP AND BIDEN STRENGTHEN THEIR 2024 POSITIONS
- Even after the indictment, 59% of Republicans would choose Trump in a GOP primary and he would beat Biden in a general election 45-39 (one point closer than last month).
- Biden has strengthened his position with 62% support among Democratic voters in a primary – but Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is in second at 15% and his personal favorability rating is 21 points above water.

AMERICANS OPPOSE ELECTRIC VEHICLE MANDATES
- Americans are split 50-50 on supporting the $7500 tax credit subsidy for an EV purchase.
- 59% of voters oppose government regulations that would require at least half of all cars sold in the U.S. by 2030 to be electric.
- Americans still like gas cars: 64% think they are better vehicles than EVs.

- Voters are split on the net climate effect of EVs: Half of Americans, including most Republicans and Independents, think EVs produce just as much pollution through the car battery mining and production process.

AMERICANS SATISFIED WITH SCHOOLS BUT WANT STRONGER PARENTAL RIGHTS
- 74% of parents with school-aged children, including majorities of all parties, think schools are respecting their rights as parents.
- 77% of voters oppose a law in their state that would allow minors to get gender-changing surgery and puberty blockers without parental permission, including 66% of Democrats and 87% of Republicans.

The June Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll survey was conducted online within the United States from June 14-15, 2023, among 2,090 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX.

The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.

HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics.  Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. 

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 Donald Trump now beats Joe Biden by 7 points in a 2024 presidential matchup. Meanwhile half of voters have heard of the Durham report on the FBI’s investigation of Trump and Russia, but they seem confused about its contents, as half mistakenly thought the report said the FBI investigation was well-founded.

TRUMP CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AFTER CNN TOWN HALL

• Trump now beats Biden in a 2024 general election by 7 points, 47-40.
• Trump stretched his lead in a GOP primary to 58% and Biden stretched his lead in a Democratic primary to 41%.

VOTERS SEEM CONFUSED BY DURHAM REPORT ON FBI’S TRUMP INVESTIGATION

• Half of voters, evenly split across parties, have heard of the Durham report on the FBI’s Trump-Russia probe.
• But Americans are confused about the Durham report’s conclusion: half of voters, including 72% of Democrats, believed the report said the FBI’s Trump investigation was well-founded, even though it said the opposite.
• 52% of voters believe the Durham report was a fair examination, although 57% of Democrats said it was fair and 54% of Republicans said it was biased.
• 70% of Democrats still believe Trump worked in concert with Russia to win the presidency and 71% believe the Steele dossier was a true story.

MAJORITY OF VOTERS ACROSS ALL PARTIES WANT STRICTER IMMIGRATION POLICIES

• 71% of voters, split evenly across the parties, have heard of the repeal of Title 42, a COVID-era immigration regulation that allowed the U.S. government to send those who attempted to cross the southern border illegally to Mexico to wait for a court date.
• 54% of voters – including 67% of Democrats and 46% of Republicans – support the repeal of Title 42.
• 53% of voters now think the Biden administration is just trying to enforce immigration laws more humanely, rather than creating an open border (which a majority of voters thought in December).
• But only 38% of voters approve of Biden’s handling of immigration, down 2 points from last month.

VOTERS CONTINUE TO WANT DEBT CEILING NEGOTIATIONS

• 35% of voters, up 6 points from last month, now think Biden has signaled willingness to curb spending in the next year.
• Voters continue to want Democrats to cave and negotiate on the debt ceiling to prevent a default: 57% say so, up 2 points from last month.
• As default looms, 70% of voters, up 6 points from last month, now think default would be a huge issue.

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For the first time since last year, Americans’ view of the economy has declined and the public continues to take the Republicans’ side on debt negotiations, with 65% wanting Congress to raise the debt ceiling only with restraints on future spending. Meanwhile the indictment has strengthened Donald Trump’s standing among Republicans as he extends his lead in an open GOP primary to 55% support, while 65% of voters think Joe Biden would not be able to finish a second term if reelected.

VIEWS OF THE ECONOMY WORSEN AFTER 3 MONTHS OF IMPROVEMENTS

• Partisanship determines Americans’ view of the economy: 30% of voters overall say the economy on the right track, but 54% of Democrats think so compared to 12% of Republicans.
• 52% of voters think their personal financial situation is getting worse.

INDICTMENT STRENGTHENS TRUMP WITH REPUBLICANS AS DESANTIS FADES BUT IS NOT OUT

• 50% of voters, up 4 points from last month, now think a Trump trial will help his candidacy.
• 61% of voters believe Trump will ultimately be acquitted.
• In an open GOP primary Trump extends his lead to 55% support, with DeSantis falling to 20% support. In a head-to-head primary against DeSantis, Trump extends his lead to 61%.
• But 58% of Republican voters say DeSantis is ready to give Trump a “real challenge” for the Republican nomination.

VOTERS THINK A BIDEN SECOND TERM MEANS PRESIDENT HARRIS

• 63% of voters think Biden would not be able to finish a second term if reelected.

THE PUBLIC CONTINUES TO TAKE THE REPUBLICANS’ SIDE ON DEBT NEGOTIATIONS

• 66% of voters think the U.S. government has too much debt and 55% think the government is spending too much.
• When told the national debt is $31 trillion, 65% of voters want Congress to raise the debt ceiling only with restraints on future spending.
• 81% of voters, including 81% of Democrats and 86% of Republicans, support returning the country to a balanced budget.

CRIME CONCERNS BECOME LESS PARTISAN AS VOTERS WANT STRICTER PROSECUTION

• 86% of voters think crime is a serious issue right now and 48% think crime and safety are getting worse in their own communities.
• 60% of voters, including 52% of Democrats, think police today are afraid of doing their jobs.
• 58% of Americans, including 43% of Democrats, think big city district attorneys are pulling back from prosecuting violent offenders sufficiently.
• Voters most blame rising crime in American cities on the worsening economy (23%) and prosecutors who don’t enforce the laws (22%).

REGULAR AMERICANS AREN’T FAMILIAR WITH ESG

• 64% of voters have not heard of ESG investing.
• Americans are split on ESG strategies: after being given the definition, 52% of voters think investment managers have a duty to prioritize returns above all else rather than the option to consider climate and ESG concerns.

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Joe Biden and Donald Trump are solidifying support among their bases as both stretched their lead by 4-5 points in their respective primaries among party voters. While Americans were very concerned about inflation, 71% think the banking crisis will impact them not at all or only a little bit. Voters are united in seeing China as an enemy (75% think so), but they are split on banning TikTok in the U.S. completely versus allowing it to operate with certain conditions.

VOTERS APPROVE OF GOVERNMENT’S BANK INTERVENTIONS BUT AREN'T PERSONALLY CONCERNED ABOUT BANKING CRISIS

• 67% of voters agree with the Biden administration’s decision to step in and guarantee all customer deposits from Silicon Valley Bank and other failed banks.
• 77% of voters think the government should fully insure deposits at all US banks, not only systematically important firms.
• Americans aren’t worried about the banking crisis reaching them: 71% think the bank failures will impact them not at all or only a little bit. 67% think the deposits in their own banks are safe.
• Americans care more about inflation than the banking crisis: 54% of voters believe the Federal Reserve should prioritize fighting inflation even if it means allowing banks to fail and could lead to a financial crisis in the short term.

AMERICANS AGREE TRUMP INDICTMENT LOOKS POLITICAL BUT SUPPORT OR OPPOSE IT ALONG PARTY LINES

• Voters are split evenly along party lines on whether they think the Manhattan DA should indict Trump.
• 59% think the indictment is politically motivated, and 67% think the Trump payment in question was a personal, not a campaign, payment.
• 61% of voters, including half of Republicans, agree that Trump’s calls for protests in case he is arrested were irresponsible.

AMERICANS UNITED IN CONCERN ABOUT CHINA BUT SPLIT ON TIKTOK BAN

• 75% of voters see China as an enemy of the US, and 80% think it seeks to replace the US as the key player in global affairs.
• 55% of voters think Biden’s foreign policy is too weak on China.
• Voters support banning TikTok on government devices (75%) but are split on how to handle TikTok for the public: 45% support a full ban in the US, while 46% support allowing the app with conditions such as forcing it to undergo regular security reviews or forcing its Chinese owners to sell their stakes.

TRUMP AND BIDEN SOLIDIFY THEIR SUPPORT AHEAD OF PRIMARY SEASON BUT TRUMP HAS A CLEAR CHALLENGER

• Biden rose 5 points to 41% support in a hypothetical Democratic primary, while Trump rose 4 points to 50% support in a hypothetical Republican primary.
• A Biden-Trump rematch now looks probable: 57% of Republican and Independent voters think Trump will win the Republican primary, while 60% of Democratic and Independent voters think Biden will win the Democratic primary.
• Trump has a clear challenger while Biden does not: Ron DeSantis trails Trump in a head-to-head primary matchup by 12 points.

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BIDEN HASN’T RECEIVED A BUMP FROM THE STATE OF THE UNION

• Biden’s State of the Union was received in a partisan manner: voters were split 50-50 on whether they found the speech favorable, and his approval rating remains at 42%.
• 35% of voters said they did not watch any of the speech.
• On Biden’s back-and-forth with Republicans on entitlements: 56% of voters believe Republican members of Congress are trying to cut Social Security and Medicare.

VOTERS CONTINUE TO WANT SPENDING CURBS INCLUDING SOCIAL SECURITY REFORM

• Most voters continue to side with the Republicans on the looming debt ceiling fight: 62% want Congress to raise the limit only with spending constraints, and 63% think Democrats should negotiate.
• Voters acknowledge Medicare and Social Security can’t continue without change: 57% think Medicare and Social Security do need reforms to remain solvent.  

NIKKI HALEY GETS SOME MOMENTUM

• Nikki Haley rises after her presidential campaign announcement although most voters are still not familiar with her: among GOP voters she rose to third place in a potential GOP primary that does not feature Trump.
• Ron DeSantis is slipping slightly: among GOP voters he dropped 10 points in a potential GOP primary without Trump although he is still the frontrunner.
• The GOP field is open: only 54% of Republican and Independent voters think Trump will win the GOP primary if he runs.

AMERICANS ARE CHINA HAWKS

• The shot-down surveillance balloon is a major concern to Americans: 66% of voters think it represented a challenge to US sovereignty by China.
• Americans thought Biden did too little in response: 63% think the Biden administration acted too slowly in shooting down the balloon.
• Americans also want more answers on the balloon and subsequent shot-down aerial objects: 82% support Congress investigating, and 75% want Biden to disclose what the administration knows.
• Americans are concerned about China’s aggression in other areas: 69% of voters think China is planning to invade Taiwan in the next 3 years.

AMERICANS DOUBT BIDEN ON FOREIGN POLICY ACROSS THE WORLD 

• Biden’s foreign policy approval is low: 40% of voters think Biden has not done a good job on foreign policy including Afghanistan, Ukraine, and China – compared to 27% who think he has done a good job.
• 56% of voters think Biden is not up to handling challenges from China, Russia, and Iran.

AMERICANS STILL SUPPORT BIG TECH BUT ARE SUSPICIOUS OF TIKTOK

• 60-70% of voters do not want Big Tech companies (Google, Facebook, Amazon, or Microsoft) to be broken up.
• TikTok faces more suspicion: 59% of voters think TikTok spies on its US users.
• Voters are split on a full TikTok ban: 46% think TikTok should be allowed to operate in the US only if the app undergoes regular security reviews of its code base; 42% support a total ban.
• The FTC is seen as partisan: 48% of voters think it acts as a Democratic agency.

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• 64% of voters, including 44% of Democrats, think the presence of classified documents in several unsecure locations is a “serious” breach of national security.Half of voters, including one-third of Democrats, think the DOJ treated Biden’s classified documents case more leniently than Donald Trump’s.
• 74% of voters, including two-thirds of Democrats, support the Attorney General’s appointment of a special prosecutor for the Biden documents case.

VOTERS SIDE WITH REPUBLICANS ON DEBT CEILING NEGOTIATIONS AND SPENDING RESTRAINTS

• Americans care greatly about default: 69% of voters, including over two-thirds of each party, think a temporary debt default would be a “huge issue.”
• When given the size of the national debt ($31 trillion), 63% of voters want Congress to raise the debt limit only with restraints on future spending.
• Americans side with the GOP on negotiations: 61% of voters, including a slim majority of Democrats themselves, think the Democrats should cave to prevent a default.

KEVIN MCCARTHY EMERGES WITH MODERATE CONSERVATIVE IMAGE FROM THE SPEAKERSHIP FIGHT, NOT FAR RIGHT

• 78% of voters see McCarthy as moderate or conservative, not far right.
• 53% of voters, including a majority of both parties, think McCarthy will work with Democrats to create bipartisan legislation.

SUPPORT FOR SOCIAL SECURITY AND IMMIGRATION LEGISLATION UNITES AMERICANS

• 85% of voters, including 88% of Republicans, want legislation that secures Social Security for two more decades.
• Two-thirds of voters, including 62% of Republicans, want compromise immigration legislation that strengthens the border but also gives DACA recipients a path to citizenship.

AMERICANS ARE SPLIT ON NON-COMPETES BUT WANT MORE CRYPTOCURRENCY REGULATION

• 60% of Democrats support and 60% of Republicans oppose the prospect of an FTC executive order that would ban all non-compete agreements.
• A majority of voters want more regulation on cryptocurrencies and consumer privacy/security on the Internet, but less or equal regulation on marijuana.

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AMERICANS THINK INFLATION IS INCREASING AND WILL LINGER

• 66% of voters think inflation is increasing, and 61% of voters think inflation will continue for at least another year.
• But Americans see economic troubles easing slightly: the percentage of voters who think the economy is heading in the right track and who are optimistic about their lives next year both increased by 3 points.
• Voters are split on whether Biden’s policies caused inflation.

IT'S NOW A TWO-WAY GOP RACE BETWEEN TRUMP AND DESANTIS

• Trump is still the GOP frontrunner in an open field: 48% of GOP voters would choose him in a primary, compared to 25% for DeSantis.
• But in a GOP head-to-head, DeSantis defeats Trump by 4 points if GOP-leaning Independent voters are included; Trump wins the head-to-head by 10 points among only GOP voters.
• For the first time, the poll shows DeSantis defeating Biden in a 2024 matchup, by 4 points; Trump would also defeat Biden by 5 points.

VOTERS BELIEVE TWITTER ENGAGED IN POLITICAL CENSORSHIP AND ARE ROOTING FOR ELON MUSK

• Americans believe in the Twitter Files revelations: 64% think Twitter was secretly shadow banning users, and 64% also think Twitter engaged in political censorship during the 2020 election.
• Americans like Elon Musk: 61% think Musk is trying to clean up Twitter from abuses, and his personal favorability is 8 points above water.
• 70% of voters, including strong majorities across the political spectrum, support new national laws protecting internet users from corporate censorship.

AMERICANS THINK ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION IS A SERIOUS ISSUE BUT DON'T KNOW THE NUMBERS

• Voters are concerned about the effects of Biden’s immigration policies: 67% think they have encouraged illegal immigration, and 57% think they are increasing the flow of drugs and crime.
• Americans are unfamiliar with the extent of illegal immigration: 64% correctly said the number of illegal border crossings has increased under Biden, but the median voter underestimated that number by a factor of 10 (250-500 thousand vs. 2-3 million).
• Two-thirds of Americans want Biden to issue stricter policies to reduce the flow of illegal immigrants, when told the actual number of illegal crossings in the last year (over 2.75 million).

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Looking ahead to the new government, a strong majority of voters want to curb Congressional spending, and support for Ukraine is fracturing as Republicans and Independents increasingly soften on the rising price tag of supporting the war.

Other key findings include:

MIDTERM RESULTS

 DEMOCRATS MADE UP THE TURNOUT DEFICIT

• Democrats closed the gap from the pre-election poll which had Likely Voters +3 for the GOP and Registered Voters tied 50-50
• Democrats took advantage of the early and absentee vote: 52% of Democrats voted before Election Day, compared to 45% of Republicans.
• One third of Independents sat out the election.
• Democrats successfully highlighted their core issues: the economy was the most important issue across the board (42%), but protecting democracy (18%) and abortion (16%) were next.

UNHAPPINESS WITH THE DIRECTION OF THE COUNTRY REMAINS IN PLACE

• President Biden’s approval is flat at 43 percent.
• 4 in 10 voters believe the country is in a recession, and another 4 in 10 think it will be in a recession next year.

AMERICAN PRIORITIES FOR THE NEXT CONGRESS

VOTERS WANT MODERATE SENSIBLE POLICIES

• Roughly 80% of voters agree they want to reduce misinformation on the Internet and curb Congressional spending.
• Voters want the parties to moderate themselves: 62% think the Democrats have moved too far to the left, and 56% think the Republicans have moved too far to the right.

VOTERS EXPECT A SLATE OF INVESTIGATIONS FROM THE NEW HOUSE

• Voters want more clarity on possible political bias: Strong majorities think the House should investigate the Hunter Biden laptop (65%), whether technology companies have been censoring political speech (74%), and whether politics have been affecting the FBI’s actions (77%).
• The January 6 committee continues to be unpopular: 62% of voters want the House to end it.

UKRAINE SUPPORT IS SOFTENING

• Support for costly aid packages is decreasing among Republicans and Independents: 61% of Republicans and 59% of Independents oppose providing another $27 billion in aid to Ukraine.

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• Inflation, crime, and immigration are the most important issues voters picked heading into the midterms – and based on each, voters say they are over 10 points more likely to vote Republican than Democratic.
• Americans think Republican leaders are most concerned with immigration, inflation, and the economy – while Democratic leaders are most concerned with January 6, women’s rights, and the environment.

AMERICANS ARE CONCERNED ABOUT A RECESSION

• 84% of voters think the US is in a recession now or will be in one by next year.
• 58% are not confident in the Biden administration’s ability to keep inflation at bay.
• Americans are worried about the Fed: 74% think the Fed will cause a recession.

BIDEN’S DEBT RELIEF AND MARIJUANA PARDON POLICIES ARE POPULAR BUT DON’T MOVE THE NEEDLE ELECTORALLY

• 67% approve of Biden’s marijuana pardon, but it has no net effect on the electorate: 36% of voters say it makes them more likely to vote Republican, and 35% say more likely to vote Democratic.
• It’s a similar story for Biden’s student debt relief: 58% support his act – but 41% say it has made them more likely to vote Republican, compared to 35% Democratic.

AMERICANS LEAN TOWARDS HAWKISH FOREIGN POLICY ON OIL AND RUSSIA

• 65% oppose easing sanctions on countries like Iran and Venezuela as a way to lower gas and oil prices; instead, they want greater output of American oil and gas.
• 54% think the US should cut military sales and technical aid to the Saudi Arabian government in response to their oil production cut.
• Voters are split on whether or not Biden’s policies on Ukraine are pushing us towards nuclear war, and a majority remain supportive of providing aid to Ukraine.
• If Russia uses a nuclear weapon on Ukraine, 59% of Americans are willing to send in NATO.

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Results also show the FBI's raid of Donald Trump's residence has not hurt the standing of the former president, whom voters would still pick in a presidential election over Joe Biden if the 2024 election were held today. Americans are evenly split on whether the raid was politically motivated, but a clear majority, 58%, think appointing a special master to review the documents taken by the Department of Justice is reasonable.

DEMOCRATS HOLD THE DAM AS INFLATION REMAINS TOP CONCERN 

• Biden's approval has ticked up slightly to 41% as voter sentiment on his administration's handling of inflation and unemployment improves.
• The generic Congressional ballot remains tight, 51-49 in favor of the Democrats.
• Inflation remains the biggest concern for both Democrats and Republicans, followed by abortion rights for Democrats and immigration for Republicans.

BIDEN'S SPEECH ON MAGA REPUBLICANS IS UNPOPULAR AS AMERICANS WORRY ABOUT DIVIDING THE COUNTRY

• Biden's September 1 speech in Philadelphia, in which he called Trump and MAGA Republicans a threat to the country, is viewed as divisive: 56% of voters, including 62% of Independents, opposed it.
• Biden's approval has ticked up slightly to 41% as voter sentiment on his administration's handling of inflation and unemployment improve.
• More Americans are concerned about the socialist left rather than MAGA Republicans gaining power, 55-45.

AMERICANS WANT TO INVESTIGATE THE HUNTER BIDEN LAPTOP STORY 

• The Hunter Biden laptop story is not going away: 59% of Americans think the laptop story is genuine, not Russian disinformation. 63% of voters think the FBI helped suppress the story by telling tech companies it could be Russian disinformation.
• 63% of voters think the DOJ should appoint a special prosecutor to investigate the Biden laptop.

BIDEN'S STUDENT LOAN RELIEF DOES NOT AFFECT MANY AMERICANS OR MAKE THEM WANT TO VOTE DEMOCRATIC

• Americans are evenly split on Biden's cancellation of up to $20,000 of debt for couples making up to $250,000.
• Only 17% of Americans say they will be personally helped by the program.
• Voters are skeptical of Biden's method: 56% think it was wrong of Biden to act without Congress, and 52% think his executive order will ultimately be deemed unconstitutional.

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Cusack: And that hope certainly would be in keeping the Senate. You know, the House is going to be difficult to retain based upon history and the president's numbers. Why do you think Democrats have had a little bit of a bump here, as you mentioned, and why do you think that the congressional generic polling is, is a dead heat with Biden's numbers still low

Penn: Well, Biden staying at 38% job approval and disapproval on virtually every major issue. But I think in some ways voters have come to separate Biden who they largely think is incompetent or not a good president from the democratic party and the democratic cause in general, as opposed to the Republicans. And so I think the Democrats have some things going for them, certainly choice in guns, helped rally. I think some of their supporters who otherwise really didn't have a big issue that they could fasten on because the election had been otherwise been dominated by inflation and immigration and crime, all Republican leaning, all Republican leading issues. So, and I think finally, you know, the Republican party is a divided party and Trump is knocking down half of the nominees. Some of the Trump nominees that were successful in the primaries are having, you know, a lot of trouble in the general election, particularly Oz in Pennsylvania. And they don't have an effective message machine out there right now. So, so that kind of tilts the page that maybe the, maybe tilts the odds just a little bit from what would otherwise have been a pretty dire situation.

Cusack: And of course, Democrats can't get too over confident. The numbers on the economy are not good. There's an intensifying debate on whether we're in a recession or not. Technically we have not heard from this nonprofit group called the National Bureau of Economic Research, which decides that though we have had data of negative growth in consecutive quarters. What the economic numbers mean to you, Mark? And do you think this whole issue of a recession, does it matter? Because a lot of people think we're either in one or we're going to be in one?

Penn: Well, most people think we're either in one or we're going to be in one, as you say, but we are definitely in a polling recession. If I were the national bureau of polling, would I declare an economic recession? Absolutely. Because we have 67% who say that the economy is on the wrong track and we have 56% of Americans saying their personal economic situation is worsening. These numbers reflect at least a polling recession. For sure. And I do think this debate about recession or not. I mean, you could Google it every single source and news thing until yesterday has always said that that two quarters of contracting grosses a recession. Recession's not a dep

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To capture the polling that you did, what's the ONE word you'd pick?

Mark Penn, The Harris Poll (00:08):

Cataclysmic

Bob Cusack, The Hill (00:10):

And why is that?

Mark Penn, The Harris Poll (00:12):

Well, because the public feeling of, uh, that the economy is on the wrong track and that their personal lives are deteriorating is overwhelming in this poll with 70% or more saying the economy is on the wrong track with the notion that, that their personal lives were deteriorating shooting up so dramatically. Uh, I think that, uh, almost 80% either think we're going into a recession or we're in a recession. I think somehow the message of economic doom and gloom has been completely communicated to this electorate. And that makes for a very, very sour electorate.

Bob Cusack, The Hill (00:55):

Your polling, Mark, now has the President at 38%. Usually he's been in the low forties in your polls. And obviously this is a very different summer, than last summer when Biden basically had some type of honeymoon Afghanistan hadn't really, turned into the debacle that it did, and his numbers were much higher. Um, you see, the left is frustrated with Biden, you know, compare the numbers of Biden now to Trump, because it seems like with Trump, he was always in the forties and he held down to the base. I know you made the case and I agree with you that he should have gone for more independence, but Biden's losing everybody right now. 

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Take the economy, so often the harbinger of election results. From late 2017 until the pandemic, a majority of Americans believed that the economy was strong, and from 2014 until the pandemic at least a plurality believed their personal economic situation was improving. Covid-19 cut sharply into that feeling of well-being; this was initially seen as temporary, though, and trillions of dollars flowed into keeping people afloat. But then near-double-digit inflation hit consumers for the first time in 40 years; 60 percent of voters now see the economy as weak and 48 percent say their financial situation is worsening, according to a Harris poll conducted April 20-21. Many Americans under 60 have relatively little experience with anything but comparatively low fuel costs, negligible interest rates and stable prices. Virtually overnight these assumptions have been shaken. Only 35 percent approve of President Biden’s handling of inflation. FULL OP-ED

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Mark Penn:

Welcome to the podcast with Mark Penn and Bob Cusack, editor in chief of The Hill and we're going to discuss this month's Harvard CAPS Harris Poll that's just come out of the field with almost 2,000 interviews and I think it's going to be a provocative discussion as public opinion in the United States continues to harden, mostly against the administration. Particularly as the virus is seen as growing and the economy is seen as sinking.

Bob Cusack:

So Mark, if you had one word to really capture this month's polling, what would it be?

Mark Penn:

The word would be "cementing". The negative attitudes towards the administration are now being set as set as immigration, crime, core issues, now also next to that are the economy and the virus is going up, producing a negative mood and the gap in the leadership the people are looking for. These negative ratings that we saw during the summer that happened during Afghanistan have really cemented now and that's going to mean real problems for the democrats and this administration unless they act and act in a really big way.

Bob Cusack:

What was the most surprising thing? Because there's a lot of data here, there's presidential, there's virus data. What surprised you the most this month?

Mark Penn:

I was surprised most by the fact that the public mood is turning so sour in such a short period of time. This is almost a repeat of what happened with Obama but almost to a greater swing where there was so much promise, we have a democratic president, we're no longer governed by Trump, it's a new day, the economy is tooling along. All of those things looked so great in the spring and now the public is like my situation is getting worse, they see inflation, the economy is on the wrong track, they don't like the president, they're turning on the democratic party, a little bit on the republican. I mean it's just a sour mood out there. And as you know, when the public mood is sour, incumbents better watch out.

Bob Cusack:

That's right. I mean we're seeing a lot of democrats retire instead of seek re-election. That's always a telling sign that the party is not going to do that great going into the midterm. The virus is back as a top issue. And you really have to, sometimes, step back also. I know we do this every month, but we're still in the first year of the Biden presidency. And I know honeymoons don't last forever and Joe Biden's honeymoon is way over. But aren't these bad numbers? Again, they were good earlier this year and we talked about that. But for a first year president, these numbers are kind of troubling, aren't they?

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All right. Welcome to the discussion of the October 26 - 28 Harvard CAPS Harris Poll, administered by myself, Dritan Nesho and Professor Stephen Ansolabehere, of the Harvard CAPS Center. You can always check for the full results at HarvardHarrisPoll.com. We'll be improving that website, if not this month, probably by the next. And you can listen to us have a pretty good discussion with Bob Cusack, Editor-in-Chief of The Hill.

Bob Cusack (00:42):

Thanks, Mark. As far as this polling, it's more bad news for The President. I mean, what do you think summarizes all this data that you have? What is the word that comes across or sentence, for The White House, looking at these really dismal numbers?

Mark Penn (01:04):

"SINKING" - The White House continues to sink, right? And they're sinking now. And in, because the economy is seen by the average voter, as deteriorating, is on the wrong track and inflation is coming in and higher gas prices. And ironically, even as people see the, uh, virus is receding, the administration is not getting any credit. What really is happening here is that in the past, when the virus seemed to be receding, there was sort of an economic euphoria, oh, this is great. We're going to get back. Now, the virus is receding, but people say, well, now I'm really worried about what's happening here in the economy, taxing spending inflation deficits. I mean, that leaves aside all the other issues, but I think that's the most troublesome thing right now for this administration.

Bob Cusack (02:03):

And that dynamic, I think is so important because as we've gone through this pandemic since March of 2020, we've done, you've done a lot of polls. We've talked about it a lot when it was really bad, obviously that hurt The President. A lot of people think that if COVID hadn't come along then Trump would be in a second term, or if he handled COVID just a bit better. He would still be President. Is this the first time you're seeing this fading as an issue, but, but the president not, not getting any credit? Because this summer, if I'm not mistaken, he was getting some credit.

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Mark Penn’s career spans 40 years in advertising, market research, public relations, polling and consulting.  He has advised top world leaders, led companies, and written two bestselling books.  

Currently, Mark serves as President and Managing Partner of private equity The Stagwell Group as well as CEO of the fund’s largest investment, MDC Partners.

As “The Place Where Great Talent Lives,” MDC Partners is celebrated for its innovative advertising, public relations, branding, digital, social and event marketing agency partners, which are responsible for some of the most memorable and effective campaigns. By leveraging technology, data analytics, insights and strategic consulting solutions, MDC Partners drives creative excellence, business growth and measurable return on marketing investment for over 1,700 clients worldwide. MDC Partners is part of Stagwell Group’s strategy to invest in digital marketing services companies.  With over $500 million raised, Stagwell has made over 20 investments in under four years, delivering what investors call, “a superior operating model.”

Prior to founding Stagwell, Mark served in senior executive positions at Microsoft. As Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer, he was responsible for working on core strategic issues across the company, blending data-analytics

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Mark Penn’s career spans 40 years in advertising, market research, public relations, polling and consulting.  He has advised top world leaders, led companies, and written two bestselling books.  

Currently, Mark serves as President and Managing Partner of private equity The Stagwell Group as well as CEO of the fund’s largest investment, MDC Partners.

As “The Place Where Great Talent Lives,” MDC Partners is celebrated for its innovative advertising, public relations, branding, digital, social and event marketing agency partners, which are responsible for some of the most memorable and effective campaigns. By leveraging technology, data analytics, insights and strategic consulting solutions, MDC Partners drives creative excellence, business growth and measurable return on marketing investment for over 1,700 clients worldwide. MDC Partners is part of Stagwell Group’s strategy to invest in digital marketing services companies.  With over $500 million raised, Stagwell has made over 20 investments in under four years, delivering what investors call, “a superior operating model.”

Prior to founding Stagwell, Mark served in senior executive positions at Microsoft. As Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer, he was responsible for working on core strategic issues across the company, blending data-analytics with creativity to help set the company on a new course.

Marks’s experience in growing, building, and managing agencies is well documented. As the co-founder and CEO of Penn Schoen Berland, a market research firm that he built and sold to communications behemoth WPP, he demonstrated value-creation in a crowded industry, serving clients with innovative techniques from being first with overnight polling to unique ad testing methods used by presidents and major corporations. At WPP, he also became CEO of Burson-Marsteller, and managed the two companies to record profit growth during that period.

A globally recognized strategist, Mark has advised corporate and political leaders, both in the United States and internationally. For six years, he served as White House Pollster to President Bill Clinton and was a senior adviser in his 1996 re-election, identifying “Soccer Moms” as the key swing vote needed for victory. The Washington Post wrote that no other pollster had ever become, “So thoroughly integrated into the policymaking operation” of a presidential administration.

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For more detailed analysis, visit www.MARKPENNPOLLS.com
TWITTER: @Mark_Penn_Polls
FACEBOOK: MarkPennPolls
LINKEDIN: Mark_Penn_Polls

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A solid majority of the country — 65 percent — believes Joe Biden won the election. They also believe the election overall was fair and the counting of the ballots was fair. Today, fifty-eight percent of voters want president Trump to concede the election to president-elect Joe Biden.

But the public would like to see election reforms going forward. Only 29 percent want another election run like this one, and a third of the country still believes that the election was stolen with as many as 40 to 45 percent that there were some irregularities such as ballot harvesting. Voters would like much tighter procedures on mail-in ballots, and to have ballots tabulated within three days of the election; they oppose allowing open-ended periods for mailed ballots to arrive

The post-election poll also sends some clear political messages: the biggest issue was, unsurprisingly, the coronavirus. Coronavirus fears trumped the economy, and ultimately President Trump. Biden overwhelmingly won over the voters most concerned with the virus, which suggests that, on Day 1, the new president should focus entirely on the measures that will bring it to an end — organizing a strong task force, getting economic stimulus done if this Congress fails to act, and distributing vaccines. Forty percent of those polled said the first thing they want Biden to do is to pass economic stimulus, and 33 percent said to get the vaccine out. Nothing else reached double-digits as a concern.

At the same time, continued economic improvement and the announcement of a vaccine sent Trump’s approval rating over 50 percent for the first time in years of polling. Despite the rising coronavirus cases fifty-four percent of voters today say they want their states to try to manage the situation while remaining open, indicating both Covid fatigue and an economic need to move on. Republicans in Congress did better because House speaker Pelosi held up the much-wanted stimulus bill rather than accept a $1.8 trillion compromise and because House and Senate Republicans were not associated with the president’s weak virus strategy. Therefore, it’s no surprise, then, that a majority of voters say they want Republicans to remain in control of the Senate in the new year after the Georgia runoff races.

The political tension between managing the virus and the economy is likely to continue well into the new administration, and we will continue to track the sentiments of voters as well. As always feel free to email me with questions as you work through the findings, and I invite you to read my commentary for the Hill.

My podcast on the polls can be followed at www.MARKPENNPOLLS.com (full episode) or any of the following channels: 

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If you are Joe Biden, you are trying to get as many mail-in votes as you can, run tens of millions of dollars in ads, and run out the clock before there is a vaccine and big jobs numbers that are likely coming our way after Thursday’s big jump in Gross Domestic Product. This unconventional strategy has been working to keep the election a referendum on Trump — a referendum that Trump cannot win, with the virus raging and the deep-set perception he is just too divisive. Of course, it’s all with a little help from the media, as two-thirds of Americans see the media as hard on Donald Trump and two-thirds see the media as going easy on Joe Biden.

Trump was right to fear mail-in voting, as it appears that Democrats have a well-tuned effort to get their votes in early, and the polls show that the mail vote overwhelmingly favors Biden. It wasn’t about fraud; it was about making it easier for those already part of the political system to cast their votes no matter how busy. There is a reason — political interest — that Democrats are trying to push back every deadline for the receipt of mail votes and Republicans are insisting upon the letter of the law. Trump told his voters not to trust the mail — and so he needs some great weather and a finely tuned organization to get his voters to the polls, to make up for that massive tactical error.

Our Florida poll has Trump down 3 points, but the internals of the poll look somewhat more favorable to him than the top-line result. The state’s Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, has a 53 percent approval rating and Trump’s approval there is 49 percent, 3 points ahead of his national average. He is getting 43 percent of the Latino vote and has a lead of 9 points over Biden on the economy. His biggest problem is a 10-point deficit on the virus but, surprisingly, that deficit is more among younger than older voters. Obviously, the night is over if he does not win Florida — but I would give a better-than-even chance he pulls this one off.

In North Carolina, where he is down by 1, Trump is winning the white vote by 60 to 38 but getting only 6 percent of the Black vote there. He is polling ahead 1 point of Republican Sen. Tom Tillis and has 48 percent job approval. North Carolina had a big cultural disconnect with Hillary Clinton in 2016, but Biden is better received there than she was, with a 50 percent favorable rating compared to 46 percent for the president. Trump does have strong support on the economy there and receives 45 percent approval on the virus, compared to his national average of 41 percent. Trump would need to expand his Black vote to at least 12 percent to put him barely over the top in this hotly contested state. 

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President Trump's approval has nosedived the last couple of months. It was as high as 49%. He was in the kind of range that typically allowed Presidents to get re-elected and it's zoomed back down to 43%, the lowest rating we've had in, probably, oh, almost two years. Now it stabilized. It came up one point. His approval is 44% … 56% disapprove. These are much tougher numbers for re-election. Now, let's take a look at how President Trump is doing on specific issues. Well, he’s still got really strong ratings, despite the economic problems. On the economy: 52%, stimulating jobs: 54%, fighting terrorism: 54%. But he's got a real problem: his reactions to the virus were at 51% in April, dropped to 46%, dropped to 44% and now dropped to 41%.

In one phrase - “it’s the virus, stupid”.

Everything has turned - not on the economy … no matter how bad the economy has become - but on reaction to the virus. Ratings on civil disorder went from 42% to 45%, up slightly. Responding to issues of race and police: up slightly from 43% to 44%. But ratings on his performance on the virus, as cases raged almost out of control, overwhelm everything else in the poll. And that drop to 41%, I believe, is the central problem that The President is facing right now. Right track wrong track on the country: well, 27% say right track. I don't know who those folks could be ...

Each month, presidential Pollster Mark Penn shares his analysis of the newest Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll. Fielded July 21-23, this month's poll surveyed 1,932 registered voters on Trump's job approval numbers and his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, the general mood of the country, police reform, Congress's approval numbers, the 2020 election, general outlook on the economy, mail-in voting in November, policing and race, the role of social media platforms, US-China relations and much more. Results were weighted for age within gender, region, race/ethnicity, marital status, household size, income, employment, education, political party, and political ideology where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

You can also follow the podcast on: @iHeartRadio, @ApplePodcasts, @Spotify, @Stitcher,@Google, @SoundCloud, @RadioPublic, @Tunein, @Castbox_fm, @Overcast, @Castro.

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• 57% oppose the New York Times decision to backtrack on the Tom Cotton editorial, and 6 in 10 voters believe major publications and tech platform censor conservative views
• 69% of voters do not believe that news editors or CEOs should lose their jobs if they criticize Black Lives Matters, at the same time as 6 in 10 support corporations to donating millions of dollars to the BLM movement.
• 77% say it was wrong for HBO to remove Gone with The Wind; 65% say it’s wrong for major networks to remove shows about police; 58% think confederate statues should remain and 71% want local governments to block groups from physically removing or damaging these statues.

Despite majority support for utilizing the national guard, President Trump’s approval declined by 4 points for the second month in a row; he’s now at 43 percent. He receives low marks in the low 40s for his handling of the coronavirus (44%), issues of race and policing (43%), and responding to civil disorder (42%)

Joe Biden did very well communicating he could bring the country together compared to President Trump which is reflected in candidate views in our poll and the 10 point spread we see among Likely Voters in the 2020 horserace (Trump 44% vs. Biden 56%).

Finally, the coronavirus remains the biggest issue facing Americans today. Today, 61% think infections are growing faster (up from 49% in May), 64% think we are opening up too soon, and 74% think there will be a second wave in the fall.

You can follow my podcast on the poll at SoundCloud (full episode) or any of the following channels: @iHeartRadio, @ApplePodcasts, @Spotify, @Stitcher,

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Download Report: bit.ly/PDF_HHPoll_May

Here are the important topics of the day as the voters see them:

VOTER MOOD – America is concerned and uncertain about re-opening, and voters are looking for leadership and unity. 68% are most concerned about opening up too soon compared to 32% who are primarily concerned about economic damage and hardship. We see some stark demographic differences in the answer to this question, with Democrats and urban demographics being most concerned about re-opening too soon, and Republicans and rural demographics the least. Overall, 85% of voters believe we should continue shelter in place practices for at least another month. And three-quarters of voters want another stimulus bill, with 64% preferring it be passed immediately and 59% saying we should pass all the proposed stimulus elements even if it has a price tag of $3 trillion. However, voters do not want stimulus money to be earmarked for undocumented immigrants.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE – confidence in the economy continues to decrease, with a majority voters believing the country will be in a recession 6 months from now and less than 1 in 3 thinking the US economy is strong and trending in the right direction. However, the number of voters who say their economic situation is declining has peaked, down just three points month-over-month suggesting that the worst impact may be over.

MANAGING THE CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK – Given the economic confidence and uncertainty about reopening, it is no surprise that the administration’s job approval in handling the coronavirus is down 5 points month-over-month, from 51% in April to 46% this month. However, the numbers could shift yet again: voters believe all major institutions are functioning, with the White House receiving the highest score at 80%. And President Trump continues to receive majority approval in managing the economy and stimulating jobs.

MICHAEL FLYNN CASE – Voters are split in their support of the justice department dropping the case against Michael Flynn, and in general less than half know what Flynn was charged about. When prompted with details from the DOJ’s decision to drop the case, a majority support the dropping of the charges. But a majority also believe the FBI had reason to investigate Michael Flynn, and that it was right for President Obama to know about an FBI investigation into the national security adviser of the incoming administration and to be briefed on his conversations. Worryingly, a small majority also believe Obama administration officials conspired to leak news of intercepted conversations between Michael Flynn and Russian officials to discredit and have Flynn fired or not.

TARA READE/ BIDEN ALLEGATIONS – There is widespread awareness of the sexual harassment allegation towards Joe Biden, with a slight majority of voters believing the accusations. However, 6 in 10 voters claim this allegation has no effect on their likelihood to vote for Biden.

2020 ELECTION – Interest in the election remains strong, with 77% of voters indicating they are very likely to vote. Biden continues to lead Trump in a head-to-head match-up; among likely voters in our poll, Trump collects 43% of the vote, Biden 47%, with independent candidates at 6% and the unsure vote at 5%. When given a forced choice between the two, 53% of likely voters select Biden and 47% Trump, indicating that the remaining vote breaks in favor of Biden.

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The poll, fielded April 14-16 among 2,394 registered voters, shows Americans changing from concerned purely about the virus to greater concern about the economy. Focusing on the economy and jobs is gaining in salience -- this is now the second most important issue in the country (41% of voters) after the management of the coronavirus crisis (the top issue for voters, at 63%). Four in 10 voters report their financial situation is getting worse (a 20 point jump since January); and only 32% say the economy is on the right track (down from 51% in January).

Americans back the current lockdown in overwhelming numbers, and a majority thinks it should continue for about a month. Americans are optimistic about overcoming the virus and getting back to normal.

President Trump’s approval stands at 49%, tied for a record high in our poll. Fifty-one percent approve of his work on the virus, slightly up. Voters continue to approve of his stewardship of the economy. He trails Joe Biden in the horserace for re-election but the race is within a few points among likely voters.

Overall, voters believe President Trump and Congress should pass another stimulus bill, with the majority believing the bill should help fund small business loans and struggling hospitals, but not other priorities. Nearly all voters today agree that sufficient protective materials for healthcare workers and social distance orders for at-risk populations are necessary steps before re-opening the economy.

Voters are not happy over the partisanship around the coronavirus response. However, most now see Trump as acting more out of national interest and 60% see Nancy Pelosi as acting out of partisanship. For the first time Republicans have an image equal to or better than Democrats as a party.

Fifty-six percent believe individual states should make their own decisions about the response to the crisis and 61% want individual states to be in charge of the decision to ease social distancing and remove restrictions to reopen the US economy.

These and more issues are touched in this rich and fascinating poll on Americans' views. As always, please don’t hesitate to reach out with questions and suggestions.

You can follow my podcast on the poll at SoundCloud (full episode) or any of the following channels: @iHeartRadio, @ApplePodcasts, @Spotify, @Stitcher,@Google, @SoundCloud, @RadioPublic, @Tunein, @Castbox_fm, @Overcast, @Castro.

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Follow @Mark_Penn_Polls on Twitter: twitter.com/Mark_Penn_Polls

Register for the next Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll: harvardharrispoll.com/

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Harvard Harris Poll

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Harvard Harris Poll

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Harvard Harris Poll

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Harvard Harris Poll

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Do you favor or oppose tougher penalties for parents failing to secure their guns from their kids? Wow, 86%. And as you know, there have been some mass murders in which kids took their parents' guns, and pretty much a consensus issue. Do you favor or oppose a measure that would ban all gun ownership except for the police and the military? Wow, 36% do favor that, but 64% say no, they wouldn't want to have a society in which guns were so restricted.

An issue that I've written about a little bit after looking through the statistics is should the White House as Congress to pass legislation to raise the minimum age for purchasing guns from 18 to 21? I believe this was done in Florida. 80% support that measure. If you look at the numbers, of gun murders, right, and there's two kinds of gun violence, suicide and homicide, suicide has actually been the fastest growing gun violence, and there are about 15,000 homicides. But 20% of the homicides are committed by people 21 and under. And in fact, 50% are committed by those 25 and under. And old guys like me, not a lot of murders committed by people in their 60s. Always an exception to every trend. But, it is interesting that those under 20, 25 and under commit about half the murders, and that certainly lends itself to the question, do you think people under 25 should be permitted ... prohibited from purchasing a gun? You may remember people under 25 can't rent a car. 51% said yes to that, 49% said no. So, 80% are at age 21, 51% at age 25.

And there continues to be very strong support for legislation to improve background checks. That's really a consensus issue in America. 92% favor that. School safety improvements, 90% favor that. Removing firearms from people who are a threat by court order, that's again in the high 80s. Allowing military veterans and retired police to work as school safety, that's also favored too, almost 90. Banning bump stocks, 82. Assistance for states in training schools, 70%. Forming a commission to study age restrictions for gun purchases, and the role of video games, about 70%. So, I think the public, after all of the recent incidents, is looking for some action here. I think action along all of the dimensions, the background checks, training school personnel, and they also do back no gun under 21.

Do you think that the laws related to better controlling guns are needed more in cities, the suburbs, or the rural areas? 76% said cities, 17% said suburbs, and 7% said rural areas. So, there is a sense that the biggest gun ownership issues and homicide or gun violence issues are in urban areas, and 76% said that's where the focus should be.

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Of course, tariffs, like any tax, is not a popular thing. Do you approve or disapprove of Trump's tariffs on 25% of 200 billion dollars of Chinese goods? That was split 50/50. Do you approve or disapprove of the plans for an additional 10% tariffs on certain goods, also split 50/50. So, for something as unpopular as a tariff or tax, by itself these are fairly good numbers. Do you think the tariffs are hurting most of the US or China? 63% say the US. Was the delay by the Trump administration on 160 million in tariffs on electronics and other consumer goods until after the holidays, do you think an acceptance that the tariffs would hurt the US or not see it that way? 56% saw him as backing off from something that might be hurtful to the US. They believe overwhelmingly that the US pays the cost of tariffs. But, despite some of the uncertainty and concern about tariffs, when you ask the votes is China a currency manipulator? Meaning they artificially weaken their currency to make their product more competitive, 77% of the American public says that.

And, some people say that if China has been getting the better end of our trade deals with them, it's not worth rocking the boat now to fix these issues. Others say it's important to correct trade with China now, because they will soon surpass our own economy. 80% say fix the issues now. This is, I think, a very substantial endorsement of the stand up to China policy and stand up now. Obviously, the public thinks maybe Trump will be able to get a deal, 53% say he probably won't, 47% say he will. But, from an electoral point of view, this question I think is most revealing. Do you think a Democratic president would be more, less, or just as effective as Trump at standing up to the Chinese? 33% more, 44% less, 23% just as effective. So, there's 44% who think that a Democrat would be less effective. And do you think the last few presidents stood up to China as they should have, or failed to stand up? 60% say they failed to stand up to China and let them take advantage of the US.

50/50 on whether or not we should support student protesters in Hong Kong, though that seems to be at least somewhat resolved. And it's important to understand that Xi Jinping has been named President For Life in China. And so, we asked people, does that make him an effective emperor, or is a duly elected official representing the state party? 69% see him as an emperor, which is a kind of nicer way of saying an absolute dictator over 1.4 billion people, immune from an electoral process. So, they leadership of China in a quite negative light, just as they see the country as being a currency manipulator, and that we have to take a stand now if we're going to fix these problems. Otherwise, China will continue to grow until they get passed us.

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