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(0:00:07) - The Future of Trust

US debt ceiling debate, increasing interest payments, inflation, Biden's strategy, potential implications of default discussed.

(0:07:43) - Fed Tools and Tech's Economic Impact

US debt ceiling, Fed tools, 'printing press', GFC, human trust, and technology's speed are discussed.

(0:13:12) - Chat and AI Transformation Power

Chat GPT is a transformative technology used to facilitate projects, create content, and quickly assemble syllabi.

(0:21:40) - AI's Implications for Productivity and Investment

AI and GPT are transforming markets, accelerating vaccine development, aiding professional investors, and helping retail investors access alternative data.

(0:27:19) - AI and Blockchain Power and Potential

(0:36:00) - Crypto Value and Adoption Future

Crypto assets, fraudulent activity, adoption of crypto as payment, and AI/chat GPT are discussed in relation to the potential of a Ponzi scheme.

(0:41:47) - Crypto Investment Future

(0:48:52) - AI and Trust in Banking

(0:58:33) - Python, Creativity, and Health Hacks

AI, recipes, investing, diet, breathing, mind-gut connection, and virtual reality are discussed to help users become more creative and age gracefully.

(1:16:30) - Household Deposits and the Economy

(1:23:31) - AI and the End of Scarcity

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Marko Papic leads Clocktower’s strategy team, providing bespoke research to clients and partners on geopolitics, macroeconomics, and markets. Prior to joining the firm, Marko founded BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy practice (GPS) in 2012. Marko began his career as a Senior Analyst at Stratfor. He holds graduate degrees from UT Austin and the University of British Columbia.

0:07:45 - Yield Curve and COVID Fiscal Response (41 Seconds)

0:11:44 - Fed Cuts Rates and Consumer Response (68 Seconds)

0:14:38 - Inflation and Interest Rates (60 Seconds)

0:18:06 - Presidential Influence on FMC Leniency (93 Seconds)

0:24:22 - Impact of American Elites on FOMC (90 Seconds)

0:32:43 - Geopolitical Pornography and Containing China (53 Seconds)

0:45:34 - Emerging Market Commodities Bullish Case (79 Seconds)

0:52:46 - Debt Ceiling Debate (34 Seconds)

1:06:34 - Lakers vs. Golden State (69 Seconds)

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• Whether the recent trouble in parts of the banking sector speaks to a much broader breakdown in the financial system.
• The differences between the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank of New York.
• The Fed's role in setting the stage for this crisis to happen.
• The advent of “Twitter-fuelled” bank runs.
• Whether the $250k insured by the FDIC is an arbitrary figure and what it should be.
• 2018's regulatory rollbacks.
• Philosophies and processes for investing in this environment.
• The prospect of seeing new market lows due to last week’s events.
• The damage to investors' confidence in banks' stability
• Strategies and financial instruments that could limit bank runs in the future.

Herb Greenberg has spent over 40 years as a financial journalist at some of the country's leading newspapers, websites, and broadcast media. He is currently a senior editor at Empire Financial Research.  

Enrique Abeyta is also an editor at Empire Financial Research. The 25-year stock market warrior and former hedge fund manager is also the writer and owner of Inked Magazine, REVOLVER Magazine, The Hard Times, the Co-Founder of Hard Money, and the host of Hard Money's Million Dollar podcast. 

Alex Beinfield is the Founder and CIO of hedge fund Blue Duck Capital. Alex has been short Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) since September 2022 and was short Signature Bank of New York (SBNY) just before it failed. 

Today’s conversation focuses on:

• The Silicon Valley Bank (SVP) collapse. What led to it and what it means for investors.
• The Fed being partially to blame for banks like SVB needing to take on more risk by keeping rates so low for so long.
• SVB’s failure to keep a “fortress balance sheet" and take responsibility for its decisions.
• Eric’s assessment of Bear Stearns prior to its 2008 collapse and subsequent sale to JP Morgan Chase.
• What the 2/10 UST yield curve inversion tells us about the probability of a recession.
• The migration of HNW people to south Florida and its effect on high-end real estate prices.
• The recent phenomenon of kids being less enthusiastic about learning to drive and owning a car.

Ryan and Eric kick things off by talking about Wall Street legend Carl Icahn, with Eric recounting a memorable dinner he shared with the man Gordon Gecko was—in part—based upon.  

Eric gives his thoughts on an expected interest rate hike of 25 basis points and the squeeze consumers are starting to feel with auto and credit card delinquencies on the rise and credit card and mortgage balances at an all-time high.  

He then talks about a greater than zero chance of the US government being temporarily unable to pay its debt and the knock-on implications of that. 

Lastly, Eric shares why he thinks EV goals are unrealistic and why the government should be enticing big oil companies with a carrot rather than beating them with a stick.

Jordi is a master at using analogies to explain complex financial ideas. Ryan quickly gets Jordi to open up about their shared love for the philosophies of Moneyball and Bill James, perfectly teeing Jordi up to answer his question: "If everyone has started embracing analytics, how does one achieve alpha?"  

They talk about Jordi's latest whitewater Adapt or die 3.0—something everyone should read—discuss why alts are crucial in today's economic environment. Jordi then explains how Weiss is preparing to tackle 2023.

Jordi then touches on his views in China, what the Fed will do in 2023, and how we have to shift our investing perspectives based on Marc Andreessen's ABCs. He even tells us how accompanying his dad to the horse track put his financial education on a fast track.  

Later, the conversation turns to Jordi's passion for longevity; how mind and body health makes you a better investor; the importance of sleep; and how using data can improve your physical health as it does with your financial well-being.

Host Ryan Pallotta is joined by JAG Capital's Josh Goltry, Blue Duck Capital's Alex Beinfield, Wall Street veteran Eric Rosen and Prometheus Founder and CEO Michael Wang. 

The result is a rollicking hour and change of roasts and —a heaping helping of insight into how these professionals navigated a tumultuous 12 months and how they plan to thrive in 2023. 

Personal wins and losses are shared, predictions are proffered and challenged, statistics are interpreted, theses are scrutinized, strategies are discussed, heroes are lionized, villains are denounced, and a lot of laughs are had along the way.

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This entire chat focuses on the collapse of what was, until recently, the third-largest crypto exchange by volume—FTX.  

Josh starts by describing his initial thoughts on the story when it broke, listing a slew of incongruencies that were beginning to arouse suspicion around Co-Founder Sam Bankman-Fried.    

He then describes how so many seemingly sophisticated investors bought into what amounts to a Ponzi scheme and talks us through what he describes as "piggybacking."  

Josh then talks about how FTX's collapse could be a good thing for crypto in the long term and what this all means for the last major crypto onramp in the US—Coinbase.

Josh explains how remote work may lead to grossly inaccurate job figures and describes the time it takes for macroeconomic influences to be felt at the micro level.  

He and Ryan talk about why the dollar's strength is bad news for multinationals with US expenses, adding that the negative impact of the stronger dollar will be felt more keenly in Q4.   

Josh then weighs in on an intriguing conspiracy theory that suggests TikTok—which he calls "digital opium"—exists to make people outside of China dumber while the domestic version—Douyin—is intended to make domestic users smarter.

Josh then talks about how a red wave could hasten a ban on TikTok in the US and predicts that a total ban could result in Meta's share price doubling in a day. 

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Their chat begins with a look at the current maelstrom of macroeconomic events through a historical lens.  

Dan compares the tumult of 2022 with that of the late 1960s and reminds us that we've never seen the sort of environment we see today without it leading to a full-blown panic. 

He then talks about how the way in which British PM Liz Truss's message was packaged and delivered destabilized the UK's credibility and caused a wholesale reevaluation of its economy. 

Dan goes on to detail the four main ways in which Arena insulates its investors from macroeconomic trends and market directionality and offers everyday investors advice on how to navigate what could be a long and deep recession. 

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With the mid-terms right around the corner, Daniel explains how he helps institutional investors make decisions as the political landscape shifts and policies change. 

He describes a model that Strategas employs for predicting the outcome of presidential elections and explains why this model has gotten just about every election right, including 2016. 

Daniel then talks about why he thinks the current environment is reminiscent of 1968, then indicators that will give us a better understanding of the depth and severity of the seemingly inevitable recession. 

Daniel leaves us with a slew of predictions concerning the mid-terms, the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, Jerome Powell continuing to chair the Fed, and an October surprise from Vladimir Putin.

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Their chat begins with an appraisal of the current state of the market, with Alon describing what he calls the battle between "economic reality and investor positioning."

Alon then gets into some specific portfolio management strategies. He explains why, with a lot of volatility in the market, it's a good time to use options. 

He also touches on the benefits of professional money managers, remarking that even sophisticated investors use the talents of other investment professionals with strengths in other areas. 

Lastly, Alon and Ryan discuss the ramifications of work-from-home and hybrid models, honing in on career longevity, productivity, and real estate. 

Josh explains how tech companies hiring Wall St veterans signals their maturity and talks about the possibilities of Shopify expanding into banking and loans for the companies it supports.  

Josh and Ryan then chew over the stickiness of cybersecurity with Josh, explaining why, if you're a CSO at any company, it's the last part of the IT stack you eliminate. He also gets into why he's so bullish on Crowdstrike (CRWD).  

While Josh maintains that Nvidia (NVDA) is his favorite company, he lays out why he reduced his position by almost 100% and at the price at which he's looking to reenter. He also shares his thoughts on why the CHIPS act is far too little, far too late. 

Lastly, Josh and Ryan discuss Tesla (TSLA). The prospect of the company mining its own lithium and why, like Apple, greater vertical integration is likely to improve their product. They also address the fact that no other company has a bigger key-man risk than Tesla. 

Kyle is also a macroeconomics master. We talk about how the central banks are driving a global recession, where the economy is going, why we have not seen a market bottom yet, and how investors can navigate this by investing in hard productive assets.

We then dive into Kyles's current concerns about China and discuss how an invasion of Taiwan is inevitable. This serves as a segue into a history lesson on Russia, the global energy crisis, and the cold reality facing much of Europe as we get into winter.

Asked about what we should make of the return of meme stock activity, Enrique suggests that it could indicate a speedier market recovery than many expect. 

He goes on to describe why this is the most target-rich environment for long-term, multi-baggers that he's seen in thirteen years and talks about the pitfalls of not having a set idea about the kind of investor you are. 

Enrique later talks about his e-commerce platform Project M and how the company is poised to drop a new small-run vinyl project incorporating both NFT and NFC (near-field communication) technology. He explains that to be successful in e-commerce in 2022, products need to be rarer and more differentiated than ever before.

The podcast starts with Jason explaining why he wrote his 2015 book My Side of the Street: Why Wolves, Flash Boys, Quants, and Masters of the Universe Don't Represent the Real Wall Street and why it remains relevant today. 

After describing how his passion for intelligence-gathering informs how he looks at investments, Jason lays out the three fundamental principles underpinning the way he does business. 

Jason then voices his skepticism about Wall Street's prediction that profits will be up next year, given that a recession seems inevitable. He also airs his concerns about tech companies valued on revenue growth and not growth in earnings or cash flows.   

Lastly, Ryan and Jason talk about the price activity of Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY) in recent weeks. He explains that meme stocks are damaging confidence in the system and companies' ability to raise money.

Chris and Ryan get right into discussing the Inflation Reduction Act, with Chris explaining that it is, in fact, a climate bill, does little to tackle inflation and is an example of systemic dishonesty in Washington DC. 

Chris then talks about the lag in the public's response to the economic climate in terms of how they are spending and why, without a sharp dose of economic pain, consumer behavior doesn't stop on a dime. 

Ryan then asks Chris about how consumers are thinking about investing in assets at a time when macro events—Russia's war in Ukraine, for example—are causing volatility in the global markets. Chris talks about the importance of sticking to an investment plan and not getting fixated on headlines. 

Chris then gives his thoughts on the loosening of COVID restrictions in Hong Kong and why we should anticipate a tsunami of pent-up spending. 

Today's discussion quickly turns to the market rallying on the CPI print, with Josh laying out a case for why the Fed should continue to make 75bp increases until the situation is under control. Josh goes on to explain why, after a few great weeks, he's weighing up the prospect of taking capital off the table. 

The conversation then turns to the fallout from Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan last week. Fretting over the fate of TSM leads to Nvidia with Josh explaining the size of his position in the firm. 

Josh then describes a future for crypto outside of speculation—one where real use cases will dominate and dictate value. The trio then discusses why Coinbase is one of the world's most hated stocks and talks about why its lean towards greater regulation will attract more institutional money.

With strong financial headwinds gathering, Kyle gives us some context for what may be about to happen in the housing market. 

He talks about the depth and breadth of a nationwide decline in home prices and explains why the developments of the recent past are becoming unfeasible due to rising interest rates.

Kyle and Ryan discuss Amazon's throttling back on building of warehouse sites while ramping up construction of its data centers—a decision informed by where it's seeing a more aggressive uptick in revenues. 

During this chat, Josh explains why investors should listen to earnings calls of companies they don't own to gain an edge. He also explains why investors shouldn't consider tech stocks growth stocks anymore.

Ahead of Nancy Pelosi's purported trip to Taiwan, Josh shares his thoughts on how a destabilization of US-China relations could affect chip-maker TSM—a company he calls the most systemically important in the world. He also articulates the urgency and implications of bringing chip manufacturing to the US.

Josh then talks about Nvidia—a company he describes as the connective tissue of the world's entire tech infrastructure. He delivers his thesis on the firm, remarking that there is no better-placed company in the world in the decades ahead.

Josh talks about Tesla and how the companies with the largest AI training sets will be unassailable. He also explains why pitching Tesla at Point72 in 2019 cost him a position there.

We sat down with Robert to explore the factors contributing to rising commodity prices in this recessionary backdrop and when we could potentially see the trend come to an end.

Robert explains the economic implications of the tensions Russia has been introducing to global markets by holding hostage energy and food supplies, how the world is bracing for a rough road ahead—hoarding supplies locally and attempting to bring processing facilities online at lightspeed.

His outlook for commodity prices is bullish going into Q3/Q4 2022, with China likely coming out of lockdowns, and fertilizer shortages yielding likely causing higher food prices. We’ve seen shortages worldwide, and countries are now hoarding supplies locally.

As far as oil goes, the price of oil has a wide margin of error—he sees Europe likely going into a full-scale recession, with America’s economy going into a light recession, but showing some signs of strength. A good environment for oil to be between $80-110.

Mixed signals from US government administrations has made ramping up the domestic production of natural gas and oil a difficult prospect—on the EV front, plans for lithium mines in Nevada are being boycotted as well.

Robert sees that the data regarding inflation will likely continue to be bad for a while. He believes the fed will have to continue to play hard ball, hiking rates until it abates—not thinking this will happen until some time next year at the soonest.

He believes that inflation is bad for 99% of markets, that commodities is one of the only asset classes that actually benefits from high inflation.

Robert Mullin

Marathon Resource Advisors

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In our talk, Daniel defines options, trades, and puts and lays out some strategies for people who want to dip a toe into options trading. He also shares the reasons underpinning the recent explosion in options trading's popularity. 

Daniel then gets into his bullish outlook on energy and why the ESG push is causing energy producers to make as much money as they can while they can and are disincentivized to pump more oil. He then namechecks two individual stocks and two index funds for people looking for energy exposure. 

The conversation then turns to names that have taken a beating—Etsy, Shopify—and why they're starting to look attractive. Daniels sells include names connected to housing, including Whirlpool, Overstock, Wayfair, and Restoration Hardware. 

Lastly, Daniel gives us his firm's view on the severity and duration of the coming recession.

In our chat, the Tesla expert tells us what he thinks about the impact of the company's upcoming layoffs and the prospects of rival EV companies. He also shares some interesting opinions regarding the recent uptick in public appearances by Elon Musk. 

He then gets candid about his own difficulty with unlearning assumptions and how he strives to be a non-binary thinker. 

Lastly, we touch upon some of the other companies Emmet in long on—Rocket Lab, Lemonade, and Roblox—and why he thinks that Nvidia could become one of the biggest companies of all time. 

If you're unclear about what DeFi is and how it's different from its opposite CFi, this is definitely a podcast you'll want to listen to as Henry breaks it down in a way that anyone can understand. 

During our talk, Henry gives us a broad overview of the current crisis in crypto, explaining why movements in the broader market are felt more acutely in the crypto space and why a lot of Wave's clients are sitting on the sidelines and waiting things out. 

Then we talk about the contagion effect and unpack the misfortunes of Celcius and what's driving its growing insolvency risk.

We then discuss the margin call on bitcoin-backed Microstrategy's loan from Silvergate and what's happening with Axie Infinity, and the future of play-to-earn gaming. 

This week, Alex with Ryan about the consumer price index for May, the possibility of a ceasefire in Ukraine, and how it could cause a collapse in commodities prices. He explains that another scenario is behind his decision to be long commodities refiners and short anything levered to the consumer feeling good.  

The tech, media, and telecom (TTM) sector is Alex's bread and butter. He explains why he remains bullish on Spotify in the wake of the company's investor day earlier this week and why a quadrupling market cap isn't out of the question. He also talks about Netflix will roar back by learning from its recent mistakes and shaking off complacency. 

Lastly, Alex talks about misperceptions about green energy and why switching from fossil fuels isn't going to be as easy as we'd all like it to be.  

In our talk, Jose tells us about his background as a software engineer and how that informed his specialization in tech. 

He talks about why he remains positive on the tech space, citing the enormous amount of damage tech stocks have already sustained and details how great companies have the ability to power through macro messiness.   

He goes on to explain why he likes Broadcom (AVGO) and why Salesforce (CRM) is an example of a company who’s stock price doesn’t reflect its recent performance, describing it as the baby that’s been thrown out with the bathwater. 

Today's podcast is a masterclass in understanding what's going on in the markets right now. 

Christopher tells us about his firm's approach of discovering what the market is telling us about the macro, as opposed to the other way around. 

He tells us how the disconnect between what the market is telling us and how consumers are behaving can be interpreted, explains why the current state of affairs doesn’t have the hallmarks of a signature bottom, and talks about why, when that bottom comes, it’s unlikely to be V-shaped. 

He goes on to remind us that leading companies in one decade rarely remain leaders in the next and talks about why energy went into this apparent bear market as a leader and will emerge from it as one too.

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In our talk with Whitney, we get into the spectacle of Elon Musk using Twitter to attack Twitter while attempting to acquire Twitter. The latest twist in the tale is Elon's apparent attempt to re-price the deal, citing a need for data to support the platform's claim that less than 5% of Twitter users are fake or spam accounts. 

While his Empire Financial Research colleague Enrique Abeyta talked about the prospect of Twitter suing Elon should he derail the deal, Whitney floats an even more costly and consequential outcome to the drama—Twitter deciding to de-platform him.   

Whitney talks about the likelihood of the market finding its bottom late last week. He explains why he's turning bullish on Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook, and Netflix, and why when everyone and their mother is using a product like Whatsapp or Venmo, they are good buys explaining that a sustainable financial model can be hammered out at a later date. 

One of the former hedge fund manager's current day gigs is writing newsletters for Whitney Tilson's Empire Financial Research. Another is co-hosting Hard Money's Million Dollar podcast, in which Enrique is tasked with helping turn his co-host's 10,000 dollar stake into a cool million. It's highly entertaining and well worth checking out.  

In the early hours of this Friday, the 13th, Elon Musk took to Twitter to announce that his bid to acquire the aforementioned social media platform was on hold, pending details surrounding the percentage of users that are actually spam or fake accounts. Enrique describes how this possible attempt to strengthen his negotiating position could cost him big should he break the deal and get sued by Twitter. 

Front here, Enrique segues seamlessly from Twitter's undulating stock price to other tech stocks that have been hit hard of late and could see a pronounced bounce back. He also drops some tantalizing tidbits regarding a SPAC stock he's particularly jazzed about.

That means he’s perfectly placed to explain the crypto story that everyone's talking about—the implosion of crypto coin Terra Luna and the $41 billion that got vaporized overnight. 

Henry does a masterful job of setting the scene that led up to this crypto crisis. He lays out what stable coins are, explains the difference between collateralized stable coins and algorithmic stable coins like UST, and describes the relationship between UST and Luna. 

Henry then takes us through the crisis that developed in the past week and how a paradoxical announcement by the Luna Foundation Guard—think of it as centra bank to UST—broke the stable coin's peg to the dollar. 

We talk about how won and lost in the crisis' wake, how Luna's collapse is reflected in the pricing of bitcoin and Ethereum, and the prospect of a comeback for Luna. We then zoom out and talk about the timing of this crisis, coming as it does during a recession, a war in Europe, and a lull in enthusiasm for crypto generally. Henry tells us why he remains bullish on crypto generally and describes how the US can establish dollar dominance in crypto via US dollar-pegged stable coins.

In a lively, wide-ranging chat, they talk about the uniqueness of the world's richest person acquiring the social media platform the world's brightest minds choose to share their thoughts, providing—as Emmet Peppers deftly puts it—the cheat codes for life.  

They discuss Musk's superhuman ability to attract talent, whether the outcry around the acquisition holds up to scrutiny, and theorize on why Tesla's share price dropped 12%—or two Twitters—on the news. 

Ryan and Jeff also kick around the common perception of Elon. Specifically, how much of it doesn't jibe with his actions or lifestyle. They also touch upon what a privately held Twitter could look like and how a genuinely great mind may set about unlocking its value.

‍

Emmet has owned Tesla since 2010. Back then it had a market cap of $2.5 billion. It’s now well over trillion.

We talk with him about how Tesla blew estimates out of the water and managed to post a greater than sevenfold increase in profit despite supply chain issues. We discuss the advent of robo-taxis, and self-driving cars, and how people need to stop thinking about Tesla as just a car manufacturer. And of course we couldn’t talk about Elon Musk without touching on his plans for Twitter.

Twitter is in the crosshairs of one Elon Musk. Alex has been long on Twitter and explains what Elon might be thinking, laying out several ways this modern melodrama may play out, including a rationale for intentionally triggering a poison pill.  

On Tuesday, Netflix announced that they had a lousy Q1 and expected a worse Q2. The price tanked by around a third. Alex was short on Netflix but covered his shorts just before the announcement. He tells us why he made that choice, what the dip could mean for other streaming services and the effects of Nexflix's plans to crack down on password sharing and introduce ads.