Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora.

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the oil price, and benchmark interest rates have both risen on the renewed tensions between the US and Iran.

But first today, the IMF has updated its global economic forecasts, and they are virtually unchanged from the main release in April. They note the world economy’s stronger-than-expected resilience to the Iran war and robust AI-related investment. They see global growth coming in at +3.0% in 2026 with the 2027 growth outlook revised up to marginally 3.4% from 3.2%. Despite the slight upgrades, the IMF warned that risks remain tilted to the downside, and the full economic impact of elevated tensions, including renewed US-Iran strikes, are still to be revealed. Global headline inflation is now expected to reach 4.7% in 2026, up from 4.1% in 2025, before easing to 3.9% in 2027.

Australia gets little mention in this update except to note that its 2026 growth is forecast to come in at +1.9% (down -0.1%) and 2027 at +1.7% (unchanged). New Zealand gets no mention at all. For the US it is +2.3% and +2.2% for the same two year, both unchanged. For China it is +4.6% and +4.1% (marginally higher). For Japan it is +0.6% and +0.7% (little-changed). Malaysia was noted as a positive mover where their economy is projected to grow at a rate of +4.7% in 2026, benefiting from data center activity and the upturn in the global technology cycle.

US mortgage applications fell again last week, especially refinance applications.

US crude oil stocksactually rose last week with a modest gain which ended a ten consecutive string of declines. But their strategic oil reserve continued to fall at the same fast pace.

The modest US consumer debt expansion recorded to April shrank to nothing in May, an unexpected weakness, and a significant variation from the continued expansion expected. However a one month hesitation occurs occasionally so we will need to wait for the June release to know if this is a significant indicator. The big mover was a sharp fall in credit cards and other revolving debt, also quite unexpected.

The minutes of the June Fed meeting were released today, revealing that most officials broadly agreed they would need to raise interest rates if inflation remained elevated this year due to the war in the Middle East, tariffs, or strong demand from the AI-driven investment boom. And that included new boss Kevin Warsh.

In Japan, their official sentiment survey of professionals recovered in June after three prior months of downbeat views

In Australia, rents are rising faster, especially house rents. The increase was both stronger than seasonal norms and relatively abrupt in some cities, pointing to a step-change in pricing behaviour rather than a gradual tightening in market conditions.

In a now somewhat dated update due to the renewed Middle East hot conflict, the New York Fed's global supply chain pressure index eased back in June after its April and May spikes. (Of course, with today's resumption by the US of its bombing of Iran, this is likely to flare up again in July.)

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.56%, up +8 bps from this time yesterday.

The price of gold has fallen to US$4067/oz, down -US$78/oz from yesterday. Silver is now under US$58.50/oz, down -US$2.50 from yesterday.

Oil prices are up +US$3 from yesterday at just on US$73.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$78/bbl and up +US$4. Hormuz transits have picked up sharply in a rush to get out despite the risks and renewed uncertainties with 35 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (8 dark with transponders off) but only 16 entering for new loads (2 dark). Interestingly. All this comes as attacks on ships in transit become daily events, so the rise in oil prices isn't surprising. Red Sea activity near Yemen has fallen again to even lower levels on added risks there too.

The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just over 57 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.9 which is up +20 bps from this time yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$62,052 and down -3.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.1%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and because tomorrow is a public holiday in New Zealand, Matariki, we’ll do this again on Monday.

Track 1219389

Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora.

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news renewed Hormuz attacks are raising oil prices and interest rates today, not helped by a pullback in tech stocks.

But first today, there was another dairy auction overnight, a full one with new season volumes returning. But this one came in sharply lower, down -4.9% on USD terms although only a -2.5% retreat in NZD terms. Among the results, there was a notable -4.4% fall for WMP, a -7.0% fall for SMP, a -5% fall for butter and a large -12.3% fall for cheddar cheese. A few of the minor categories gained. But these falls were larger than the futures market was pricing in, so you have to say they are 'larger than expected'. While the new lower levels aren't that special in a longer perspective, the speed of the falls is concerning and analysts will be re-assessing their payout forecasts.

In the US, the RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index rose in July to a better than expected level but it is still well below the average over the past year and below its long term norm.

Meanwhile, American consumer inflation expectations rose when a small dip was anticipated. It is now at 3.7%, its highest since September 2023 and is rising even though expectations for lower petrol prices are included in these results.

The weekly private jobs growth monitoring by ADP shows a smaller rise ;last week than they have recorded in the past 15 week, since mid-March in fact. And the trend has been down for seven straight weeks. This is consistent with the easing that the official non-farm payrolls report showed for June.

The US Logistics Managers Index rose again in June and to its highest since March 2022, driven by three factors; anticipation of more tariff action from Trump, stockpiling to get ahead of inflation, and an expectation that the end of year retail season will be 'normal'.

US exports weakened in May and imports rose in the same time in the broader trade result that includes both goods and services, delivering a sharp rise in their deficit and their highest in over a year. This result matched the recent report of merchandise trade but brings their services trade into the picture.

Meanwhile Canada reported rising exports and stable imports to give them a larger trade surplus in May.

China said its foreign exchange reserves dipped slightly in June from their unusually high May levels. Part of this was due to the retreat in the gold price. But their central bank continued its gold-buying streak for a 20th month, with reserves reaching 75.44 million troy ounces by June’s end, up from 74.96 million in May.

China’s excavator sales are rebounding, up by more than a third in June from a year ago, driven by major projects.

New data out yesterday paints a much improved picture for Japanese household spending in May as households started to get their mojo back. And don't overlook that this was in the middle of the Trump Gulf War uncertainties.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.54%, up +6 bps from this time yesterday.

The price of gold has slipped to US$4146/oz, down -US$13/oz from yesterday. Silver is now under US$61/oz, down -US$1.50 from yesterday.

Oil prices are up +US$2 from yesterday at just under US$70.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$74/bbl. Hormuz transits have picked up sharply despite renewed uncertainties with 27 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (4 dark with transponders off) but only 18 entering for new loads (4 dark). Interestingly. All this comes as attacks on ships in transit become daily events, so the rise in oil prices isn't surprising. Red Sea activity near Yemen has fallen again to even lower levels on added risks there too.

The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 56.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at just on 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.7 which is down -10 bps from this time yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,063 and up +0.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.3%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora.

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news that now the Hormiz situation is settling down somewhat with oil prices easing, the global economy seems to be responding with a better outlook.

First today, the widely-watched US ISM services PMI came in at a good level for June even if slightly softer than for May. Price pressures eased slightly, new business stayed at good levels even if less than for May, but employment was stronger even if it is still the weakest component. This Overall services measure has been at or about this level for seven months now is a relatively settled state. It is much more in positive territory than the S&P Global services PMI for the US.

The S&P Global services June PMI for Canada is negative after a fall from May's small (but rare) expansion. Business activity weakened as new orders fell for a second straight month, with firms citing high prices and geopolitical uncertainty as key factors weighing on domestic and foreign demand.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada's June quarter Business Outlook survey found similar views. Overall business sentiment has deteriorated after improving over the past three quarters. Sales outlooks have softened slightly, but firms’ export outlooks have improved. Fewer firms said trade uncertainty and hesitancy among US customers are constraining exports, and more firms reported strong demand for commodity exports. Most firms did not report binding capacity constraints or labour shortages.

Meanwhile a companion consumer survey shows inflation expectations are now over 3% there and right at the top of its target range of 1-3%.

Singapore reported its May retail sales data overnight and it wasn't positive. Of course, this was during the height of the Middle East uncertainties.

In China, a private bank in Wuhan with US$19 bln in assets has collapsed and been taken over by regulators. While it isn't a large institution, others are saying it won't be an isolated event among regional banks. (For comparative reference, the US FDIC has dealt with two US banks in 2026 that have failed.)

And according to research by a Japanese consultancy, Chinese banks and tech companies led the world in applications for financial technology patents over the last decade, surpassing the US in a field that supports a wide range of financial services from lending and asset management to cryptocurrencies. They examined fintech-related patent filings in 118 countries and regions in the 10 years through 2025, working with Tokyo-based research firm Patent Result. The total tally reached roughly 120,000, nearly triple the number in the preceding decade.

Also for May, the EU posted its producer price data, showing a rising +5.7% level from a year ago and driven by higher energy costs. But they also released May retail sales data and perhaps surprisingly, these rose on a real basis, up a creditable +1.9% from a year ago on a price-adjusted basis.

In Australia, the Melbourne Institute survey of inflation expectations eased back slightly to 5.5% after the March spike that was rose again in April. But it has eased from there, and slipped again in June. Wage expectations, by comparison, have remained unchanged for the past seven months.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.48%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday. 

The price of gold has slipped to US$4158/oz, down -US$15/oz from yesterday. Silver is now under US$62.50/oz, down -50 USc from yesterday.

Oil prices are down -50 USc from yesterday at just under US$68.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$72/bbl. Hormuz transits have stayed low on renewed uncertainties with just 16 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (0 dark with transponders off) but 20 entering for new loads (5 dark). Interestingly, Red Sea activity near Yemen has fallen to similarly low levels on added risks there.

The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 57 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.8 which is down -10 bps from this time yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,554 and up +1.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.0%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Track 1219389

Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora.

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news an OPEC decision overnight may bring lower fuel prices much sooner. But then, this will depend on the volume of Hormuz crossings.

But first, this coming week locally will be dominated by the RBNZ's OCR review on Wednesday. Economists are divided on whether an inflation-fighting hike will come, and financial markets are pricing one in at 76%. The split voting at the May 27 review, where the external members all wanted a hike, but the majority internal members didn't, is just as likely to be repeated.

ASB is saying that locally, easing oil prices have strengthened our economic outlook and reduced the risk of a prolonged inflation shock. Lower fuel costs and stronger than expected economic momentum have put the recovery back on a firmer footing.

In Australia, the data out this week will be mainly about the Melbourne Institute's monthly inflation gauge, and about job ad changes.

In the US, their data releases will focus on service sector activity and existing home sales as they, like Europe, start to battle excessively hot conditions.

In Japan, the focus will be on defending the yen. They will also release June machine tool order data.

China will release June CPI and PPI data this week.

Over the weekend, China released their unofficial services PMI and it came in quite positive for June, similar to May. Growth rates for activity and new business remain strong. They recorded the strongest rise in employment since July 2024 and the fastest input cost inflation in over two years. Service sector firms there are optimistic about the immediate future. The overall result was better than the official China services PMI.

In Japan, their services PMI returned to growth in June, but cost pressures intensified, but here business confidence remained subdued. Which is in contrast to their quite positive factory PMI.

In South Korea we should probably note a very bumpy run recently by their stock market. It is dominated by major technology and semiconductor companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, so it is like the Nasdaq on steroids. This gives it unusual volatility, and that volatility has been on display in the past two weeks. This market hit a new record high on June 22 but has fallen -11% since. On Friday, it rose +5.8% however but even that still left it down -3% for the week. Over the past year, this equity market has risen a stunning +165% with most of it in 2026 and most of it tech-related.

In Vietnam, they posted a high Q2-2026 growth rate of +8.4%, building on their +7.8% Q1-2026 rate. (How can they report so quickly?) But this latest result will disappoint them because they have set a 2026 target of +10% and that now looks unlikely to be achieved, derailed somewhat by the Middle East conflict, also by missing their infrastructure build-out targets. Inflation eased to 4.7% in June from May's 5.6%, moving closer to the government's 4.5% inflation target this year. The World Bank has now reclassified Vietnam as an upper-middle-income economy, effective July 1.

The FAO global Food Price Index retreated for a second consecutive month in June, led down by falling cereals prices as harvests stay high, despite concerns in the US and Australia. Dairy prices eased slightly too, but meat prices stayed elevated. However it is vegetable oil prices that are keeping this index from falling faster.

In the US, the latest update of the AtlantaFed's GDPNow tracking reveals a sudden turn from high optimism about economic expansion, to a dour outlook. It has been rare that this model has come in lower than 'consensus' forecasts.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.49%, unchanged from this time Saturday but a +12 bps rise from this time last week. 

The price of gold has risen to US$4174/oz, unchanged from Saturday, up +US$100 from a week ago. Silver is now under US$62.50/oz, unchanged from Saturday too, up +US$3.50/oz for the week.

Oil prices are little-changed but slightly firmer from Saturday at just under US$69/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is still at US$72/bbl. Hormuz transits picked up Friday but then on renewed uncertainties fell back again over the weekend with just 10 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 19 hours (1 dark with transponders off) but 15 entering for new loads (1 dark). Large tankers which are exiting are now choosing to do so in Oman-controlled lanes.

And we should probably note attacks on a ships in the Red Sea near Yemen over the weekend, adding another layer of uncertainty.

OPEC met over the weekend, and raised output by +188,000 barrels/day. They have Middle East members who need maximum revenues to recover from the conflict. So we may end up awash in oil and sharply lower prices.

The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time Saturday at just over 57.1 USc, up +70 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are still at just on 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.9 which is unchanged from this time Saturday, up +60 bps for the week.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$62,563 and up +0.7% from this time Saturday, but up almost +4% from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.8%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Track 1219389

Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news of a surprisingly weak American jobs report for June. There is no World Cup bounce there. And economists are divided over whether Federal Reserve policymakers will be holding rates steady, lifting or lowering them over the next six months based on this latest data.

The US economy added just +57,000 jobs in June, the weakest gain in four months and far below expectations of +110,000. Their labour force participation rate dropped sharply to 61.5%, its lowest since early 2021. But seasonal adjustment has a lot to do with these headline results and the actual payroll change isn't anywhere near as weak.

However, when you broaden this view to everyone in employment, not just those on a company payroll, things don't look so good. There are now 162.7 mln people in employment in June, down -175,000 from May and down -1.2 mln from June a year ago. In fact, that employed civilian workforce level is their lowest since the end of 2024.

US jobless claims rose last week, but only marginally and by about what seasonal factors would have accounted for. There are now 1.76 mln people on these benefits, pressed lower by much tighter entitlement standards, which is consistent with the employment drop.

US factory orders fell -1.3% in May and were down -4.5% for durable goods orders. But this needs to be seen in the context of rises in the prior three months, and April was revised higher. From a year ago though, the value of these factory orders were up only +1.8% overall but down -4.3% for durable goods. Given producer price inflation has been high over this period (+6.5%), these are terrible results. And surprising given the factory PMI data, so we should be sceptical of them. But don't forget this data is from agencies with imposed partisan leadership that replaced professional leadership when the President didn't like their earlier data.

Meanwhile US vehicle sales rose in June to an annualised rate of 16.5 mln, a rise from May and from June a year ago. So that demand may improve their factory order data for June. The US vehicle market is about half the size of the Chinese equivalent (which currently runs at a 31 mln annualised sales rate).

We got all this data today because tomorrow they will be on holiday for their 250th Fourth of July celebrations. It is a milestone worth celebrating but the background economy will likely take the gloss of it for those negatively affected.

In China, those huge vehicle sales numbers mask structural problems. Prices have been low to build volume, but few of these manufacturers are profitable. A dramatic shakeout is coming because sales volumes are falling now. And that is already having implications for their steel industry, among others.

In Australia, their May exports fell -6.9% from April to be just +3.1% higher than a year ago. Their imports were +2.6% higher than April to be up +13.9% from a year ago. So their merchandise trade balance shrank to -AU$1.7 bln in May, their first deficit since January 2018. They also reported that after hitting AU$7.9 bln in February, their gold exports retreated to just AU$4.5 bln in May.

Global container freight rates rose +9% last week to be +61% higher than year-ago levels. This is all about demand for outbound cargo space out of China. Bulk cargo rates fell -2.8% last week to be +72% higher than year-ago levels, although that low base will rise quickly in future weeks.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.48%, unchanged from this time yesterday. 

The price of gold has risen to US$4106/oz, up a net +US$36/oz from yesterday. Silver is now under US$60.50/oz, up +50 USc from a day ago.

Oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday at just on US$68.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is unchanged at US$71.50/bbl. Hormuz transits have stayed at their lower level after the recent volatility & uncertainties with just 19 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) and 24 entering for new loads (3 dark). Over 84% of vessel movements are related to cargoes headed to China, Russia or are Iran-linked.

The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just over 56.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.8 which is up another +10 bps from this time yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$61,635 and up +2.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at just under +/- 2.1%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday.

Track 1219389

Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the new US Fed boss says price risks have come down in recent weeks, and repeated his determination to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Interestingly, US benchmark interest rates rose after these comments which tells you something about how they feel about the prospects for lower Fed Funds rates and inflation control.

Meanwhile, US mortgage applications were little-changed last week and the 30 year benchmark mortgage rate changed little too. Refi activity was softer.

The June job cut data for the US came in at about half the level of May and much less than expected, although layoffs due top AI remained the top reason.

Meanwhile, the ADP monthly jobs report came in softer than expected, even if it is still expanding. A rise of +113,000 was expected after the prior month's +124,000. But this marker came in at +98,000. We will get the US non-farm payrolls change data tomorrow and markets expect it to rise +110,000, and down from May's +172,000.

Meanwhile the widely-watched ISM factory PMI came in little-changed and moderately positive for June. New orders grew but slower; new export orders fell. Input prices rose again but at a slower pace. Most of this report was quite similar to yesterday's S&P Global US factory PMI.

There was another fall last week in US crude inventories although the least in six week, even as the reduction has now cumulated to ten consecutive seeks. US strategic crude reserves are now as low as they had in 1983. Petrol inventories fell as well last week. American petrol prices remain a+28 higher than before the start of the Gulf War.

In its aggressive trade relations, the US has told Canada and Mexico it will not renew the existing USMCA trade pact, one Trump himself negotiated and claimed was one of the 'best deals ever'. In fact the US ended up a net loser. Last year, the US had a -US$46 bln trade deficit ⁠in goods with Canada and a -US$197 bln deficit with Mexico. Of course the US has trade surpluses in services with both which they ignore. The existing USMCA will run another six years if it isn't eventually renewed,

Factories the world over are expanding, although more than others in some places. The global factory PMI is a positive 53. In Australia it is lagging at 51.5. In New Zealand our last BNZ-BusinessNZ factory PMI came in at 49.9. Locally we are not participating in this global expansion.

In China, their manufacturing conditions as measured by the S&P Global/RatingDog factory PMI improved further in June, completing their strongest quarter since 2020. This result was better than the official version but not quite as good as many analysts had expected. Input price inflation slowed to a five-month low while employment rose at its quickest rate since August 2023.

Japan's Tankan industrial sentiment indexes have reached their highest level since 2018 in June. They came in at a level that was better than expected for large manufacturers, but a bit more modestly improved for service sector companies.

South Korea is becoming Taiwanese, at least as regards its export prowess. Korean exports were up +71% in May from a year ago, to a record US$102 bln for the month. (For reference Taiwan exported US$78.5 bln in May, up +52% from a year ago.) However, their June factory PMI shows their softest rise in new orders in 2026 so far which limited production growth. And price and supply pressures remained pronounced.

In Australia, their May building consent data shows that the number of dwelling approved were +5.3% higher than year-ago levels. But they fell -1.1% from April. Private sector house consents rose +2.8%, to the highest level since September 2021. This is the fourth consecutive month with over 10,000 private sector houses approved. This are quite soft for multi-unit dwellings however.

And their June real estate market shows more signs of topping out. The Cotality home value index – covering all of Australia – fell -0.4% in June, following a -0.3% decline in May and a -0.1% dip in April. Annual growth slowed to +7.3%. The quarterly decline is the most significant since the 2022-23 price correction. Corrections in Sydney and Melbourne are becoming more pronounced, led by material declines in 'top tier' segments with turnover also down sharply. Momentum is slowing elsewhere but price and turnover growth are still mostly positive.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.48%, up another +5 bps from this time yesterday.

The price of gold has risen to US$4070/oz, up a net +US$44/oz from yesterday. Silver is now under US$60/oz, up +50 USc from a day ago.

Oil prices are down another -US$1.50 from yesterday at just over US$68/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is down to US$71.50/bbl. Hormuz transits have stayed at their lower level after the recent volatility & uncertainties with just 16 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (3 dark with transponders off) and 26 entering for new loads (4 dark). Most exiting vessels are still headed to China.

The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time yesterday at just under 56.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.7 which is up another +10 bps from this time yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$60,115 and up +3.1% from this time yesterday and recovering most of yesterday's fall. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at just under +/- 2.0%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Track 1219389

Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the Persian Gulf situation is settling into a chronic stalemate after the acute hot conflict. US allies in the region are confused, Qatar's role in negotiations is questioned as to whether it can actually do anything, and Iran and Oman are moving forward with their plans for 'fees' and 'management' of the waterway. The US is getting sidelined.

One outcome seems clear however; Chinese EV's are dominating world car sales so demand for crude oil is likely to be much less in the future, and that will limit oil price pressures.

But first today, there was another dairy Pulse auction overnight, bringing lower prices again. AMF fell -2.5% from last week's event, butter was down -0.5%, SMP was down a chunky -6.2% and WMP slipped -0.6%. These build on trends we have seen since mid-May and given the rise in global milk production by the main exporters (New Zealand included), it is a trend likely to continue for a while yet.

In the US, labour market data for May about job openings was little-changed from April even if it still is near a two year high, which was slightly better than was expected.

But the June PMI report for the important Chicago manufacturing hub was quite a bit weaker than for May and what was expected. But it is only back to February levels which isn't bad at all. It was a fall away in new orders that drove the easing.

Meanwhile the Dallas Fed's regional services survey became positive - just - for the first time in five months. They reported that selling price pressures increased slightly, while input price and wage pressures grew at a faster pace.

The Conference Board sentiment survey barely moved in June from May, which actually was a result that disappointed analysts because a more marked improvement was anticipated. And that was because respondents turned negative about job prospects, with almost a quarter of them unexpectedly saying jobs are 'hard to get', the highest level sine early 2021.

And we should perhaps note that the deadly screwworm cattle disease is still spreading in Texas and New Mexico, spreading to other animals too. Even though the number of animals reported as having contracted the disease remains small, the risks to cattle herds in these states in very large.

In Canada, the expectation that it was falling into recession has proven not to be the case. Canada’s GDP rebounded from a first-quarter contraction to record a +0.5% monthly gain in April making this their largest economic expansion in nine months. Their May estimate points to a further if minor + 0.1% growth.

Across the Pacific in Japan, the yen slipped into the 162-per-US dollar range yesterday for the first time in 39 years,and extending a slide that has accelerated in the past few months. A two month intervention effort isn't working, raising fresh questions about what is driving the yen's renewed weakness.

China's official PMIs posted some marginal improvements in June, actually very marginal but at least they are not contracting. Their factory PMI is expanding, just. New orders picked up slightly. And their services PMI is now not contracting. But it isn't expanding either. New orders in this version are still negative, but the overall index was bolstered by expectations for improvement and lower lead times. All other more direct elements are negative to some degree. We should note that the unofficial PMIs by S&P Global/RatingDog have tended to be more expansionary in 2026. These unofficial results will come later today (Wednesday) and Friday.

German inflation came in at 2.3% in June, down from 2.6% in May, 2.9% in April, and softer than anticipated, mainly because energy prices retreated there.

Back in the US, Rocket Lab has agreed to buy Iridium Communications, a pioneer in satellite telephones, in a broadening attempt to compete with Starlink. It combines their launch capabilities and satellite manufacturing with Iridium’s network in low-Earth orbit and valuable radio frequencies for satellite communication.

Yesterday we reported a +6% rise in May air cargo activity. But today the May air passenger travel data was released showing a declined -2.2% from a year ago, down -3.1% for international travel. The main diver of the pullback was international travel through the Middle East (-28.8%). But it is also worth noting that domestic air travel in China fell (-6.2%) as well as in the US (-1.9%).

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.43%, up +6 bps from this time yesterday.

The price of gold has risen to US$4026/oz, up a net +US$4/oz from yesterday. Silver is now under US$59.50/oz, up +US$1.50 from a day ago.

Oil prices are down -US$1.50 from yesterday at just on US$69.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is unchanged at just on US$73/bbl. Hormuz transits have stayed at their lower level after the recent volatility & uncertainties with just 19 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (5 dark with transponders off) and 23 entering for new loads (5 dark). Over the past two days, almost 70% of the exiting vessels have been headed to China.

The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from this time yesterday at just under 56.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.6 which is up another +20 bps from this time yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$58.325 and down -3.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.0%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Track 1219389

Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news of new truce agreements in the Middle East, at least as claimed by the US. Iran is conspicuously quiet that there is any agreement however.

But at the year's half-way point, economic prospects are generally far from dire.

In the US, the next regional Fed factory survey for June is out from the Dallas Fed. That shows little-change. Price pressures were mixed, as selling prices and wages rose faster while input cost pressures held steady. Looking ahead, manufacturers remained optimistic, especially as they are able to recover their cost increases. It is a sign inflation is being tolerated and embedding. Despite that, company bosses say inflation is their top concern.

Across the Pacific retail sales in Japan rose +5.3% in May from a year ago, rising from an upwardly revised +2.8% rise in April and higher than the expected +3.2% gain. It was also their strongest growth since November 2023. The strength was broad-based and especially in new car sales. Not driving this increase was fuel costs because they actually fell in the month.

In South Korea, a monumental public-private investment announcement. They have announced an "unprecedented" US$520 bln (NZ$920 bln) plan with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to expand chipmaking capacity in the country to stay competitive in the global artificial intelligence race. It will feature the construction of new four production facilities, or "fabs" - two by each of the chipmakers.

The surge that started in March for Singapore's producer prices has only risen from there, coming in +26.8% higher than year-ago levels. This doesn't include fuel, but it does include chemicals (+29%) and machinery (+31%).

Malaysia’s producer prices rose +7.8% in May from a year ago, accelerating from a 5.4% growth in the prior month and marking the third straight month of gain. It was also the fastest increase since June 2022, with producer-level cost pressures mounting amid persistent disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict.

India's industrial production stayed at an expansion rate of +5.1% in May from a year ago, held back by their mining industry, and no doubt by energy conservation issues. But it is still a fast expansion and higher than the 4.8% rate in May 2025.

EU economic sentiment ticked up in June from a low level, mainly because of an improvement in consumer sentiment. But it was not matched by business a similar improvement in business sentiment.

Globally, the FAO has been reviewing the outlook for the rural economy. Among many observations, they see China's demand for beef rising sharply so that beef and sheep meat prices will be underpinned. For dairy products, they note that most of the global growth will come from India, but for internal cosumption. Only 7% of global production is expected to be exported, and 70% of that will be by just three countries - the EU, the US and New Zealand. Prices are expected to stay high for exported product. Overall, they see rising rural productivity, especially in advanced countries.

And staying global, the latest data for air cargo demand has been released, for May, and that shows a +6% expansion, driven by an +8.0% rise in Asia Pacific international trade, and a +12.9% recovery in trade with North America

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.37%, unchanged from this time yesterday. 

The price of gold has retreated to US$4022/oz, down a net -US$66/oz from yesterday. Silver is now under US$58/oz, down -US$1 from a day ago.

Oil prices are up +US$2 from yesterday at just on US$71/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$73/bbl. (Interestingly, while these prices rose, Russian oil prices fell, now down to US$57/bbl ).Hormuz transits have stayed at their lower level after the recent flare up in fighting with just 14 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (2 dark with transponders off) but 28 entering for new loads (3 dark). Over the past two days, almost 70% of the exiting vessels were headed to China.

The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 56.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 821 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.4 which is up +20 bps from this time yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$60,319 and up +1.4% from this time yesterday Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.4%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news clashes in the Strait of Hormuz are unstitching the uneasy ceasefire and giving credence to sceptics who saw the 'truce deal' between the US and Iran as superficial and flawed. The US believes its own propaganda, thinking it is negotiating from strength, but no-one else does, least of all Iran. US allies in the region are starting to realise the US will throw them under the bus for its own ends.

Tankers (6), bulk cargo vessels (6) and other ships (4) are exiting the region, but most tankers are are heading to China, or in the Russian shadow fleet. Those who need insurance are holding back.

But first, this week will feature the usual monthly real estate update releases later in the week, including for building consents. Plus the big end-of-month data dump from the RBNZ.

In Australia, the focus will be similar where we will be looking for early signs of housing market reactions from their new Budget settings.

Elsewhere there will be important PMI updates from everywhere to give us indicators. In the US, their July 4 public holiday will happen on July 3 this year, so it will be a compressed week of labour market data there culminating in an early release of their June non-farm payrolls report when a +114,000 change is expected.

In China, they say artificial intelligence is reshaping the global labour market not by triggering mass layoffs of existing workers but by causing employers to pull back on hirings for new, entry-level positions.

China also reported industrial profits are recovering, up +21% in May from a year ago to ¥3.1 tln, and faster than the +18.8% rise for the first five months. The latest result reflects the ongoing AI investment boom and continued policy support for advanced industries despite lingering weakness in parts of the property-related sector.

In the EU, an ECB survey revealed that median year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 3.5% in May, the lowest level in three months, down from 4.0% in each of the previous two months which were the highest readings since 2023. Longer-term inflation expectations were steady, at 2.9% for three years ahead. Consumers also expect house prices to rise by 3.6% over the next year, slightly below 3.7% in April. Expectations for mortgage interest rates were unchanged at 4.9%.

According to the World Meteorological Organization they are saying the severe heat dome over Europe is expected to continue affecting much of Western, Central, and Southern Europe over the next two weeks. There are likely to be economic impacts soon, and as the summer progresses these impacts may well affect economic activity in a material way.

And the Bank of International Settlements said over the weekend global pressures from rising public debt to financial fragilities, and questions about the sustainability of ​the AI boom, are increasing systemic financial risks which they suspect could end in a bust. They warned of a complex mix of vulnerabilities, including strained fiscal positions, lingering supply shocks and the risk of a renewed bout of high and sticky inflation.

In the US their merchandise trade balance worsened in May. Imports rose +3.6% while exports fell -5.4%. These were much larger shifts than were anticipated. Clearly tariffs aren't working other than making imports more expensive and hurting exports. The net result was a -US$103.5 bln deficit for May, the largest in a year. And their largest May deficit ever.

And we should also note that US inventories are rising and quite quickly. In May, wholesale inventories were up +4.4% from a year ago, retail inventories up +3.1%. The stockpiling we noted in their PMI activity is adding deadweight to their logistics systems

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index was revised up to 49.5 in June, although that was less of a revision higher than expected. Still, sentiment improved from May which was the lowest level on record, supported in part by a moderation in petrol prices. And that is despite the fact they remain +31% higher than at the start of Trump's failed Iran adventure.

But this didn't stop shoppers at Amazon's 'Prime Day' four-day shopping event. Prime Day 2026 was exclusively for Prime members and ran June 23-26. The wrap-up shows more than US$26 bln was spent in the period, up +9.3% from last year, and expected to be half related to inflation, half a volume gain.

And in Australia, it seems that last week's auction results will show that they had their softest sales period in more than five years with many properties failing to sell. Also unfolding is the scale of mortgage fraud against banks by a surprisingly wide section of their mortgage broker community. To defend themselves, the banks are drawing up a black-list register so that brokers just don't go shopping around for vulnerabilities.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.37%, unchanged from this time Saturday, down -12 bps for the week. 

The price of gold has risen to US$4089/oz, up a net +US$15/oz from Saturday. That is down -US$66/oz from a week ago. Silver is now under US$59/oz, down -US$5.50 for the week.

Oil prices are little-changed from Saturday at just on US$69/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$72/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$77.50 and US$80.50 respectively. Hormuz transits have eased off noticeably after the recent flare up in fighting with just 16 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) but 24 entering for new loads (3 dark). Over the past two days, more than two thirds of the exiting vessels were headed to China, 9% were Russian-linked, 5% headed for Singapore 4% to South Korea. There are still hundreds (459) yet to try their luck, no doubt inhibited by insurance issues.

The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time Saturday at just on 56.4 USc, down -100 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are holding at 81.8 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at just on 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.3 which is down -110 bps for the week, and still its lowest since the GFC in 2009.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$59,497 and down -0.5% from this time Saturday, and down -5.1% from this time last week Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/- 0.9%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news more vessels are moving out of the Strait of Hormuz, but 'incidents' are generating nervousness in a fragile situation.

First, US PCE inflation rose to 4.1% in May and as expected, a rise from 3.8% in April. Core PCE inflation rose too, also as expected and is now at 3.4%. Meanwhile both personal income and personal spending rose at essentially the same pace.

More generally, it is not only the Gulf war impacts driving inflation. AI is pushing companies to raise prices to cover its 'investment'. For example, Macbooks and iPads are up +20% on this 'recovery' push.

May durable goods orders in the US fell sharply from April, but recall that April was relatively strong. But from a year ago they are also lower, down -4.4%. Capital goods orders dived -21.5% in May from a year ago largely on very weak aircraft orders.

US initial jobless claims fell slightly more than expected last week and more than seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.73 mln people on these benefits, lower than year-ago levels. But much tighter requirements are preventing many from claiming this or other social safety net options.

The Chicago Fed's national activity index slipped lower in May after the somewhat unusual improvement in April. That means it has decreased in eight of the past twelve months, and was flat in another one.

However the Kansas City Fed factory survey was much more positive in that region in its June edition, delivering one of its most upbeat results since the post-pandemic recovery.

Global container freight rates rose another +5% last week to extend its rising trend that started in early May by adding +82% in that period. From a year ago it is up only +40%. Driving this latest rise are outbound rate from China to the US West Coast. Bulk cargo freight rates were little-changed this week however, remaining +60% higher than year-ago levels.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.39%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday. 

The price of gold has risen back to US$4032/oz, up a net +US$54/oz from yesterday. Silver is just on US$58/oz, up +US$1.50 from yesterday.

Oil prices are up +US$1 from yesterday at just on US$71.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$75/bbl. Hormuz transits have picked up with 41 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (3 dark with transponders off) and 21 entering for new loads (3 dark). There are still hundreds yet to try their luck, no doubt inhibited by insurance issues. And overnight one ship was hit by live-fire after an Iran warning and this incident saw the oil price rise.

The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 56.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 81.7 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.4 which is unchanged from yesterday, and still near its lowest since the GFC in 2009.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$59,377 and essentially unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been high at just over +/- 3.1%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news of falls in many metrics across the board today, highlighted by commodity prices, crypto and interest rates. Equities are lower too. But the USD is rising on risk-aversion.

There is now international agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz ("without tolls") and that is expected to see a rush of hundreds of ships and cargoes on the move, flooding refiners with product just as indications are that demand is weakening. Urea prices are now back below pre-war levels although sulphur prices are remaining unusually high. (Key Chinese sulphur inventories are currently at a decade low.)

But first in the US, mortgage applications were little-changed last week as were mortgage interest rates, when refi activity firmed but new purchase activity eased.

And that is consistent with new home sales in the US that fell away in May to levels they had in the late stages of the pandemic in 2022. This was surprise because they were expected to rise from April's level.

There was also a surprise bigger-than-expected fall in US crude oil stocks last week, extending the outsized trend to nine straight weeks. Again, this is the longest streak of weakness since the post-pandemic 2021-2022 period. Petrol stocks rose however, suggesting much lower demand is the new trend.

There was a well-supported US Treasury 5yr bond auction earlier today and the median yield came in at 4.14% (4.20% high), little changed from the 4.12% median at the prior equivalent event a month ago.

Across the Pacific, Taiwanese industrial production was up +11.8% in May from a year ago, easing from an upwardly revised 14.9% rise in April. But this was their slowest expansion since January 2025 even if it was a new all-time record high in value terms.

Going the other way, Taiwanese retail sales are still rising fast, up +4.9% in May to extend their about +5% growth rate to four consecutive months. Clearly their stellar economic expansion is spilling into the wider consumer community.

In Japan, the minutes of the last central bank meeting show its decisionmakers view it appropriate to continue raising its policy interest rate, as underlying inflation has been moving toward the 2% target while financial conditions have remained accommodative. They say that if the economy and prices evolve in line with the Bank's outlook, further rate hikes would become warranted. Some argued Japan's policy rate remains below the estimated neutral interest rate, seen at around 2%, and should be brought closer to that level. It is currently at 1%.

In China, their important grain harvest season is well underway with record output and high yields. This is expected to keep Chinese import demand on the lowish side.

In Australia, a +6.5% rise in housing costs (mainly from a +21% jump in electricity costs) drove their May CPI 4.0% inflation rate, not fuel or food. But that was lower than the expected 4.4% rate and in fact a four month low. The overall trimmed mean was up 3.6% however, a rise from April. So their underlying inflation trend is still firming.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.40%, down another -6 bps from this time yesterday. 

The price of gold has fallen to US$3978/oz, down a net -US$152/oz from yesterday. Silver is just under US$56.50/oz, down a huge -US$5.50 from yesterday (-9%).

Oil prices are down -US$2.50 from yesterday at just on US$70.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is -US$3 lower and now just on US$74/bbl. Hormuz transits have stayed modest with 13 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) and 12 entering for new loads (2 dark). This is expected to change soon.

The Kiwi dollar is down another -30 bps from this time yesterday at just on 56.4 USc and a seven month low. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 81.9 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -10 bps at just on 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 60.4 which is down another -20 bps from yesterday, and still near its lowest since the GFC in 2009.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$59,403 and down a sharp -4.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just over +/- 3.1%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news markets are betting that the next rate move by the US Fed will be a hike. And that has juiced up the USD today.

But first, the overnight dairy Pulse auction brought sharply lower prices for the three lines offered. AMF took a -7.5% tumble from last week's full auction event. They didn't release the butter price this time. SMP fell -4.5% from last week and WMP fell -1.9%. But given the retreat of the NZD at the same time (-2.8%) the impact in local currency will be much less.

In the US, there was another good weekly jobs indicator from ADP for private payrolls, rising about what was expected.

And the flash US factory PMI for June shows solid growth, in fact its best in 4 years, but it also signals lower employment and elevated price inflation, so a mixed bag. The fall in factory jobs was the fastest since the pandemic. New order growth was good but the hikes in input prices are still next-level. Their service sector rose too but much more modestly and new order growth was tame,

But none of this showed up in the Richmond Fed's factory survey. While it did expand it was very modest and well below its May level and what was expected. They had the same lack-luster result in their service sector.

There was a well-supported US Treasury 2 year bond auction overnight, delivering a median yield of 4.14% (high 4.19%) which was well above the 4.02% median at the same event a month ago.

The Chicago Fed boss said yesterday the US inflation is too high and "going the wrong way". (He is presently an alternate FOMC member, but he will be a full member in 2027.)

Across the Pacific, Japan's factories are expanding solidly and faster. They recorded a stronger rise in business activity in June, but rate of cost inflation has hit a four-year high. New orders rose their fastest since 2022.

Singapore is managing to navigate the current global inflation pressures well. They recorded an inflation rate that held steady at 1.8% in May, unchanged for a third consecutive month and below market expectations of 2%.

In India, their flash June PMI's remained elevated and very expansionary, in both their factory and services sectors. New orders rose at a good pace, but input cost pressures eased, rising at a five month low.

In Taiwan, we are so used to reporting spectacular results but they no longer seem out of the ordinary. But in fact they remain extraordinary. Their May export orders were up +47% from a year ago to almost a new record high.

In Europe, their factory PMI is still expanding in June, but less so. Inflationary pressures show signs of softening there. Holding them back is their services sector.

The latest flash PMI for Australia shows that business activity nears stabilisation in June as the service sector improved in Australia, but new orders continue to fall, including for new export orders.

And staying in Australia, their latest quarterly update for rural commodities notes that the gross value of agricultural production is forecast to fall by -5% to AU $98.3 bln in the 2026–27 upcoming year. They expect "average broadacre farm business profit" to fall by -70%, driven by lower revenue and higher input prices.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.46%, down -5 bps from this time yesterday.

The price of gold has fallen to US$4130/oz, down a net -US$50/oz from yesterday. Silver is just under US$62/oz, down -US$3.50 from yesterday.

Oil prices are down -50 USc from yesterday at just on US$73/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$77/bbl. Hormuz transits are staying modest up with 16 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (7 dark with transponders off) and 20 entering for new loads (2 dark).

The Kiwi dollar is down another -40 bps from this time yesterday at just on 56.7 USc and a seven month low. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps and back at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at just on 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 60.6 which is down another -30 bps from yesterday, and near its lowest since the GFC in 2009.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,388 and up +0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.8%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the Swiss talks between the US and Iran seem to have made progress overnight, from Iran's point of view at least. The fighting in Lebanon has abated. Oil prices have fallen following the 60 days peace deal roadmap is still in place. To keep the momentum, the US Treasury Department has agreed it will not enforce their sanctions on the production, delivery and the sale of Iranian oil - for at least these 60 days. But of course, Iran has been selling oil before and after these sanctions, although it just got easier for them.

Having noted that news, ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has in fact changed little so far. Over 400 ships are waiting for confirmed safety before their owners will move them. And in turn, they are waiting for insurers to price their cover at more normal terms.

In the US, the Fed is actively assessing how its global dominance in financial markets can be enhanced by linking US Treasuries to USD stablecoins.

And staying in the US, we should probably note that Alan Greenspan, who led the US Fed from 1987 to 2006, has died, aged 100. His legacy is controversial, being the originator of "whatever it takes" (The Greenspan put), and which many say led to the ensuing real estate bubbles worldwide.

Canada's May CPIcame in at 3.2%, higher than expected and the most since December 2023. Driving the rise was fuel costs of course. On a core basis this inflation is running at 2.2%, about what was expected and only marginally different o April's level.

The Chinese central bank has kept its key lending rates (Loan Prime Rates) at record lows for a 13th straight month in its June review. Chinese economic momentum has recently sputtered, delivering mixed economic data, so this cautious no-change was widely expected.

Meanwhile China's foreign direct investment indicates significant struggles in attracting and keeping investors from outside the country. On a year-to-date basis, FDI fell -8.3% in yuan terms, down -3.1% in USD terms. But the May activity is much weaker coming it at just a third of year-ago levels and the net was a very minor +US$6.3 bln this year. So far in 2026, these levels are the weakest in at least ten years, probably longer, continuing a trend that is off its 2022 peak. They often talk about 'opening up' but for the past three years they have been shunned and those initiatives are failing.

In Europe, consumer sentiment has recovered some in June after their deeply negative fall in May. But it is only a minor recovery and remains deeply negative.

In Australia, their housing market is slowing noticeability. This past week and weekend their auction clearance rate fell below 50% and to its lowest in six years. In Brisbane it got as low as 33%. In Sydney it was 47.4%. In Melbourne it was 50.6%. Prices are in a falling trend too. And in spite from the full-court press vested business interests have made against recent Canberra budget moves that affect housing, it looks like voters approve.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.51%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday.

The price of gold has held at US$4180/oz, up a net +US$25/oz from yesterday. Silver is at US$65.50/oz, up +50 USc from yesterday.

Oil prices are down -US$4 from yesterday at just under US$73.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$77.50/bbl. Hormuz transits are staying modest up with 10 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (3 dark with transponders off) and 10 entering for new loads (2 dark). Most are ships heading for China and India. (Normal is 60 in each direction.)

The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from this time yesterday at just on 57.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -30 bps at 81.6 AUc. Against the euro we are staying lower at just on 50 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 60.9 which is down -30 bps from yesterday, and the lowest since November 2025

The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,388 and up +0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 1.8%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the coming week will be largely about the Strait of Hormuz and whether the US-Iran agreements will hold and traffic resumes at scale. But we start the week with a pessimistic outlook. Iran says it has closed the Strait (again) and it will remain closed until the US honours its commitment to get Israel to stop invading Lebanon. The US seems unable to do that and responded with threats. Talks in Geneva sputter along and it is hard to know if they are meaningful. And that likely means ship traffic in the Strait will be tolled by Iran when things settle, as they eventually will.

Away from all that, the local data will focus on May's mortgage and credit card lending.

In Australia we will get important updates for CPI inflation (4.3%), jobs growth (+30,000), and household spending (+4.1%).

In China, their central bank is widely expected to keep its one-year and five-year loan prime rates unchanged in its June review. They will also release FDI data (likely at least -10% lower from a year ago).

Taiwan will update its eye-catching export order data, expected to rise to +50% in May from a year ago.

There will be many early June PMI indicators coming out this week including from the US (expect stable or easing). But the big US data will be their PCE inflation report where analysts expect them to report a May level close to 4%.

Canada will report its CPI and that is expected to come in at 2.9% but with core readings a bit lower.

Over the weekend they reported retail sales rose in April to be +3.7% higher than year-ago levels but unchanged in volume terms. Their May retail sales indicator rose a bit more, but this too may be all about fuel prices more than volume gains.

Staying in Canada, their banking prudential regulator lowered its capital buffers over the weekend with the express intent of allowing their banks to lend more to businesses "in support of Canada's economic adaptation to new opportunities":

Across the Pacific, Malaysia said it's exports rose a startling +45% in May and far better than the outsized +35% expected - and easily an all-time record high. This is all driven by electronic goods (+71%) although LNG exports were very strong too (+112%). Their traditional rural exports (palm oil, natural rubber) took a hammering however.

Meanwhile Malaysia reported May CPI as up just +2.0% in May from a year ago with food prices up just +1.2%.

Germany said its May producer prices rose +2.2% from a year ago, the most since June 2023 when most of that intervening prior saw declines.

And in Europe generally, they are suffering extreme heat, early in their summer, with temperatures 40o plus in many places. It will be a long summer for them.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.49%, unchanged from this time Saturday, up a net +1 bps for the week. 

The price of gold has held at US$4152/oz, down a net -US$66/oz for the week. Silver is at US$65/oz, down -US$3 for the week.

Oil prices are holding from Saturday at just under US$77.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$80.50/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$84.50 and US$87/bbl respectively. Hormuz transits are picking up with 15 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (3 dark with transponders off) and 17 entering for new loads (8 dark). (Normal is 60 in each direction.)

Australia said it has extended their fuel excise tax relief until the end of July.

The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time Saturday at just on 57.4 USc to make it a full -100 bps lower than a week ago. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 81.9 AUc. Against the euro we are staying lower at just on 50 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.2 which is unchanged from Saturday, down -80 bps for the week.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,124 and up +1.8% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/- 0.6%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news financial markets may be moving on from the US-Iran deal, but commodity markets are noting that Iran will now have the opportunity to charge for transit ('fees' but no 'tolls') after a key US concession. The MOUis signed.

In the US, jobless claims dipped slightly last week to 219,500 but at about the rate expected as what seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now just under 1.7 people on these benefits, marginally less than a year ago.

The Philly Fed factory survey recovered in June after the poor report for May, but only to a level below its 2026 average. These firms said prices paid moved up while the prices they got for their goods dipped.

Meanwhile the US Conference Board's leading index rose marginally in May, and this metric suggests its may be coming to the end of its long term down trend that started in 2022.

In Canada, producer prices were up +13.6% in May from a year earlier with +1.2% of that coming in the latest month. Of course, most of this was energy related. In fact raw materials costs were up +33% from a year ago within the overall result.

There was a lot of central bank action overnight, all timed to follow the US Fed. Taiwan held its policy rate unchanged at 2.0% as expected. Indonesia hike again, up +25 bps to 5.75% quickly following last week's out-of-cycle emergency hike to support their currency.

The central Bank of England held unchanged at 2.75% (with two of their nine members wanting a hike). The Swiss central bank held at 0%. The Norwegian central bank held at 4.25%. And the Swedish central bank held at 1.75% a day ago. All these came after last week's +25 bps rise by the ECB.

Global container freight rates surged another +12% last week to be +21% higher than this time last year. There were increases in all major trades but the China-EU trade got the biggest hit. Meanwhile, bulk cargo rates fell -8% over the past week to be +36% higher than year ago levels.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.44%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday.

The price of gold has retreated another -US$44 from yesterday to US$4229/oz. Silver is down another -US$2 at US$66/oz.

Oil prices are down -US$1 from yesterday at just under US$75.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$78.50/bbl and down -50 USc. Hormuz transits are picking up with 13 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours and 13 entering for new loads. (Normal is 60 in each direction.)

The Kiwi dollar is down -60 bps from this time yesterday at just on 57.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82.0 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just under 50.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.3 which is down -50 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$62,623 and down -5.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just under +/- 3.0%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday.

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Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the US-Iran deal temporarily reopens Strait of Hormuz, and offers major concessions to Tehran. Tehran probably can't quite believe its luck here. Trump is battling widespread claims his Iran deal is worse (much worse) than the Obama deal he tore up.

In economic matters in the US, their central ban kept it policy rate range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting, in a unanimous decision and as expected. But updated dot plot projections show that 9 officials foresee at least one quarter-point hike this year, with 6 anticipating at least two. Another 9 expected no move or a cut. They see core inflation rising from 2.7% at their prior forecast to 3.3% by the end of the year. and removed their easing bias. And the next move will be up. This uncertainty got the market's attention.

Wall Street retreated, bond yields rose, and the USD rose. Gold fell.

But Kevin Warsh's influence can be seen in the fact that the decision announcement had very little detail or context. He is not a fan of central bank transparency.

Separately, US mortgage applications fell last week and across the board even though the benchmark interest rate was unchanged (at 6.60%).

However American retail sales rose in May from April and by more than expected to be +5.2% higher than year-ago levels. But most of this was due to higher fuel prices. Without fuel, these sales were up +3.6% when inflation was up +4.2%.

US pending home sales rose more than expected too, with sales volumes yp +4.8% from May a year ago. That is two months in a row of good gains although on the back of quite weak results a year ago.

US crude oil stocks fell an outsized -8.3 mln barrels last week, the largest weekly fall in eight weeks and the most concentrated drawdown of the strategic reserve levels since the pandemic. In fact, their strategic reserves are at their lowest level now since March 1985. a 40 year low.

Japan said its exports were up +17.0% in May from a year ago to US$59 bln and its imports were up +12.5% over the same period. Export customers were dominated by China (+17.9% growth ), the US (+12.5%), ASEAN (+20.0%), and the EU (+14.5%).

Meanwhile Japan reported its machinery orders were strong too, up +15.6% in April from a year ago, up +8.7% from March. Japan really has its mojo back.

In Singapore, they said their exports rose a whopping +38% in May from a year ago to a record high S$87 bln (US$51 bln) in the month, a far larger increase than anyone saw coming. It is clear that despite the US shenanigans on tariffing trade, global trade is in fine shape without them.

In China, they are tightening their grip on the rare earth minerals sector with new regulations that cover everything from mining rights and production, to stockpiling and environmental restoration. Everything in the sector is now a national security priority.

It might also be worth noting that Russia said its economy shrank in Q1-2026, its first admission of a retreat outside the pandemic period. And the downturn occurred despite sharp rises in the prices of key Russian exports, including oil, natural gas, coal, industrial metals, and grain.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.46%, up +4 bps from this time yesterday immediately after the Fed decision announcement.

The price of gold has has retreated -US$68 from yesterday to US$4273/oz after the Fed decision. Silver is down -US$2 at US$68/oz.

Oil prices are up +US$1 from yesterday at just under US$76.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$79/bbl and up +50 USc. Hormuz transits are picking up with eight crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours and 16 entering for new loads. (Normal is 60 in each direction.)

The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this time yesterday at just on 58.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just under 50.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.8 which is down -20 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$66,016 and up +0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.3%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

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Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news it seems Iran is going to come out of the current 'peace deal' with a very large reconstruction commitment. To end the standoff, the US is offering Iran substantial funding even if via convoluted means so that Trump can claim the US isn't involved.

The overnight dairy auction brought lower prices that at the prior full event, but not as low as at the the prior Pulse event, nor what the derivatives market was expecting. Still, it was a -2.8% retreat in USD terms, down -1.4% in NZD terms and to the lowest overall level since early February. Generally the powders were softer than expected, the milk fats note as soft as expected.

In the US, their weekly ADP employment update signaled a slightly slower pace of hiring, the softest since early March. But this signal is still expanding, just slower.

The New York Fed's regional services sector survey found softer conditions in June than at the prior survey with declining activity and firms not very optimistic.

Meanwhile the US national housing start data for May revealed sharply lower activity, down -8.7% from the same month a year ago. In fact, apart from the pandemic period, this is the lowest level in 17 years and the GFC..

All eves now turn to the US Fed and their meeting tomorrow. Many economists are betting on higher rates as Kevin Warsh takes the reins at the Fed. But it is no certainty as financial markets see no-change in their rates tomorrow, despite the high US inflation measures.

In Canada, their real estate market seems to be recovering led by Toronto and Ontario markets, with national sales rising at a rate in May not seen since 2024.

In China, new home prices were -3.5% lower in May from a year ago, matching April’s pace and that extends their consecutive decline to almost 3 years. Second hand home prices fell at a faster rate in the 70 major cities that their official data tracks. But there are new pockets where increases are starting to show up, even for pre-owned homes.

China said its industrial production expanded +4.5% in May from a year ago, better than the +4.1% in April and better than the expected +4.3%. And their electricity production rose +4.2% in the same period, giving some cred to the industrial production claims (which has been occasionally absent in previous months).

But China's retail sales actually fell -0.6% in May from the same month in 2026, following an easing pattern that started in March, and the first decline in retail sales there since December 2022. But much of this weakness is due to lower car buying which was down -16%. Sales of home appliances and audiovisual equipment was also down -16%, home improvement down -11%, gold and silver jewelry down -9%, and furniture down -8.7%. Turning up sharply were beverages and tobacco, clothing and cosmetics, comfort items popular when things are stressful.

As expected, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by +25 bps to 1.0% today in a 7-1 majority decision. This new rate is its highest in 31 years.

In Australia, momentum in their manufacturing sector stalled heading into mid-year, with conditions slipping back neutral after a short-lived recovery. The Middle East conflict is reigniting cost pressures across the industry, according to the latest update of ACCI-Westpac Business Survey for the June quarter.

And late yesterday, the RBA agreed unanimously to hold their cash rate target at 4.35% as was widely expected.

On the commodities front we should note that while urea prices have fallen (with oil), that is not the case for sulphur, not bitumen. Many commodity prices may stay elevated for a long time yet.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.42%, down -4 bps from this time yesterday.

The price of gold has recovered further, up +US$20 from yesterday to US$4341/oz. Silver is unchanged at US$70/oz.

Oil prices are down another -US$5 from yesterday at just over US$75.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$78.50/bbl. Hormuz transits are still minimal with only six crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours. Oddly however its seems the US is using an Iranian ship-transfer tactic to get some cargoes through.

And we should note that construction and other costs for electric battery storage stations have fallen below that of gas-fired power plants for the first time, as overproduction in China and a shift away from electric vehicles drove battery prices down -40% in 2025, while a turbine supply crunch is making new gas plants more costly.

The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 58.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 82.6 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just under 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62 which is up +10 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$65,878 and down -1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.1%.

And we should also note that reports suggest Binance is about to lose its licence to operate in the EU. Binance is controlled by Changpeng Zhao (CZ) who was convicted of money laundering in the US (and of course got pardoned there by Trump).

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the US-Iran deal is being viewed with relief by financial markets, but commodity markets are less enthusiastic. Commodity prices are expected to remain higher than they were in February, before the US and Israel attacked Iran, even after this latest deal to end the war, as it will take months for risk premiums to retreat and give breathing space to commodity-importing economies.

However first today, American manufacturing output stalled in May from April to be +1.4% higher than year-ago levels and a lower improvement than expected.

Also coming in weaker than expected was the June factory survey for the New York region although they did report a small rise in new orders. The pace of input cost increases remains very elevated however.

Meanwhile NAHB survey of housebuilders was little-changed in June, remaining weak on affordability concerns

In Canada, May housing starts dipped from the prior month but remain high on an historical basis.

Canada also said its April industrial production was strong, with manufacturing sales up +4.2% following a +3.4% rise in March. Sales rose in 17 of the 21 subsectors, led by the fuel products and food subsectors.

India said its exports rose to US$45.2 bln in May, a record high for them and +18% above the May 2025 level

After three months of declines, industrial production rose in April in the EU in a better than expected result (even if the rise was quite minor).

And France is facing US pressure for attempting to get the US tech giant to pay some tax on their French operations. Big Tech has weaponised its support of the US President to try and avoid France's 3% digital services tax. Even that is too much for them. Relying on US tech is risky, and those risks got larger with the US banning key new Anthropic products "from export".

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.46%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday. 

The price of gold has recovered further, up +US$99 from yesterday to US$4321/oz. Silver is up +US$2.50 to US$70/oz.

Oil prices are down -US$4.50 from yesterday at just under US$80.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$83/bbl. Hormuz transits are still minimal with no significant movements of crude or product tankers overnight.

The US went to war with Iran because they would not "negotiate" their surrender. Now Trump claims peace based on a negotiation with a regime he cannot defeat nor control. Likely the "worst deal ever". What could possibly go wrong?

The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time yesterday at just on 58.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 82.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just under 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.9 which is down -10 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$66,868 and up +5.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.9%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

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Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the imminent deal Trump talked up on Saturday seems to have faded, mainly because Israeli attacks on Beirut have undermined the situation. But if there was to be a deal, it is sure to dominate financial markets. In the meantime, war is the standard situation.

These same markets are also contending the implications of the wildly successful SpaceX float. It was full of animal spirits, FOMO, and gambling fever, and more than a few observers are seeing this as evidence of a gigantic bubble. After all it values SpaceX at 100 times its current revenues, and the business operates at a loss. At a US$2 tln 'value', to be sustainable it would need to generate after-tax profits of at least 10% or US$200 bln per year. And that is about double what Aramco-plus-Google do now, #1 and #2 combined.

In the real world, Thursday will bring the next US Fed policy meeting result, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, Trump's replacement of Jerome Powell. Powell will still have a vote however. Most observers see them holding their key rate at 3.75%. The Fed has an inflation target of 2% for the PCE measure of inflation which is currently running at 3.8% with the CPI running at 4.2%, a three year high, with both rising sharply last time they were released. There will need to be some policy gymnastics to ignore those signals, but they may hope the fuel component reverses soon to save them. That is probably why markets think there will be no change on Thursday.

The US Fed won't be the only central bank on action this week. We will get reviews from the Bank of Japan (+25 bps to 1.00% expected), Sweden's Riskbank, Norway's Norges Bank, the Swiss National Bank, the English central bank, even in Brazil.

More importantly for us is that we will get the RBA's latest update on Tuesday, where no change from the current 4.35% is expected.

And the New Zealand Q1-2026 GDP result will drop this week and it will be a surprise it it isn't a year-on-year growth rate of +1.1%. Of course, this will be very dated data. In fact the RBNZ's own Nowcast suggests GDP will drop -0.2% in Q2-2026 from the prior quarter after rising +0.6% in the March quarter. Markets see a March quarterly rise of +0.9%.

In Japan, attention will focus on the Bank of Japan's policy meeting, where it is widely expected to raise the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1% amid persistent inflation and yen weakness. If delivered, it would mark the first rate increase since December last year and the highest policy rate since 1995. The country is also set to publish trade, inflation, and machinery orders data.

In India, producer inflation is projected to rise to 9.1% in May from 8.3% in April, driven by rising energy costs. Other major releases include trade, unemployment, and passenger vehicle sales figures.

In China, investors will monitor a series of key economic releases next week, including house prices, industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment, and their jobless data.

After April's surprise decline, China's May new yuan loans resumed their growth in data out over the weekend, up +5.5% from a year ago with a modest +¥520 bln rise, about what was expected (+¥550 bln). Still, at that level it is the weakest May increase in eighteen years, as the usual suspect - the property market - continues to drag on bank lending.

Across the Pacific, American consumers felt the cost of living pressure ease slightly in June as petrol prices came back off their recent war highs. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose in early June, up from May’s all-time low and a better than expected recovery. It was a modest recovery all the same with improvements seen across all age, education, and political groups. Lower-income consumers, for whom fuel represents a larger share of budgets, showed a particularly strong rebound even if it is still deeply negative and its second lowest of all time.

And in Europe, Switzerland had another set of national referendums. One proposal, to cap its population at 10 mln, has been voted down.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.49%, up +1 bps from Saturday, down -5 bps for the week.

The price of gold has recovered a very minor +US$4 from Saturday to US$4222/oz but down -US$102 for the week. Silver is little-changed US$67.50/oz and the same as last week at this time.

Oil prices are up +50 USc from Saturday at just under US$85/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$87.50/bbl. A week ago these two prices were US$90.50 and US$93/bbl respectively. Hormuz transits have dried up again. And global oil reserves are draining into uncharted territory.

The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time Saturday at just on 58.3 USc, up +30 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62 which is unchanged from Saturday, up +30 bps for the week.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,655 and down a minor -0.3% from this time Saturday. That is a +5.8% rise from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/- 0.8%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorriow.

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If they assess that it is, the trade relationship might be at risk. That’s the opinion of David Mahon, a Kiwi business consultant based in Beijing.

“New Zealand–China relations are already at their worst stage since diplomatic recognition,” he told the Of Interest podcast.

“At the moment, there's not some sword hanging over us, partly because China is so busy dealing with a massive geopolitical mess, as all great powers and smaller and medium sized powers are.”

But Mahon sees two risks in the future: China could retaliate by blocking the import of some non-essential luxury goods, or it could simply become “indifferent” towards its relationship with New Zealand.

“New Zealand sells a lot of things to China. None of them are irreplaceable. In the end, it's just milk. In the end, it's just fruit or honey. That's something that we need to acknowledge.”

“If you look at our free trade agreement, the profit margin, the rationale for many of our companies trading with China is only based on the fact we pay no tax. If we lost that free trade agreement. We would lose much of our business with China”.

Mahon doesn’t think the Free Trade Agreement is currently at risk but there are signs Kiwi businesses in China are nervous about the deteriorating relationship.

An article written by China trade consultant Anna-May Isbey in a report published by the NZ Business Roundtable in China warned there could be direct consequences for geopolitical policies.

“The language used by governments when navigating geopolitical tensions can have real commercial consequences. Exporters consistently express the view that New Zealand’s longstanding, pragmatic, and independent approach to international engagement should continue,” she wrote.

This perspective contrasts against security analysts in Wellington and elsewhere who are increasingly concerned about China as a security risk, and want New Zealand to bolster its defence capabilities and diversify its export markets.

Government agencies have linked China to both foreign interference and cyber espionage in New Zealand, such as hacking the Parliamentary Service network in 2021.

But a political pivot towards the United States, which began while Jacinda Ardern was Prime Minister, has been complicated by the country’s plunging popularity in New Zealand.

The United States is now seen by Kiwis as more of a threat than China, according to an annual survey commissioned by the Asia NZ Foundation.

Mahon believes New Zealand should “learn to do less” and avoid taking sides in geopolitical competition which doesn’t directly affect it.

“Stop seeking the approval of these big countries that impress you so much, including Beijing … If we do less, and our need for the approval of other nations is less, then I think the navigation is going to be a lot simpler,” he said.

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Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news Trump cancelled his latest planned military strikes claiming negotiating progress. That has been enough to settle financial markets today.

But first in the US, producer prices jumped +1.1% in May from April to be +6.5% higher than a year ago and to their highest since November 2022. And before the pandemic, their highest since this series began in 2009. Core PPI was up +5.1% and a similar high. These rises were more than expected.

US initial jobless claims also rose more than expected last week.to 228,400 and more than seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.69 mln people on these benefits, less than a year ago and marginally less than two years ago.

In Canada, building consents were expected to fall back in April after the spurt in March, but they fell more than expected. Residential consents fell -5.5% and commercial consents fell an outsized -10.5%, both from the prior month. From a year ago, these consent levels were +2.5% high, but that is on a value basis and construction PPI rose +2.8% in that same time.

In Europe, the ECB raised its policy interest rate by +25 bps to 2.4% as widely expected, it first increase since 2023. It also raised its inflation expectation to 3% in 2026 and cut its growth forecast slightly to +0.8% this year and to 1.2% in 2027.

In Indonesia, their financial crisis is intensifying with their currency in freefall and their stock market too. The worry is it may drive a social crisis at our backdoor.

In Australia, the Melbourne Institutes survey of inflation expectations dipped in June to 5.5% following a dip in May after they peaked at 5.9% in April. The June result was well below the 6.5% jump some expected. But remember, their fuel tax concession (50%) is expected to end at the end of this month. If it does, it could put upward pressure on consumer inflation. (April actual CPI came in at 4.2% and the May result will be released on June 24.) In contrast wage expectations have remained unchanged for the past seven months.

The World Bank said overnight that global growth is leaking away due solely to the Middle East handbrake. It now sees 2026 expanding at 2.5%, and 2027 at 2.8%. These are slowdowns from 2025's +2.9% expansion and the prospect is slowest growth since the pandemic.

Meanwhile OPEC bravely says that world oil demand will recover quickly after the current Persian Gulf issues are resolved.

Global container freight rates rose another +3% last week to be level with the elevated rates of a year ago, when the Houthis were threatening the Red Sea access. It is all about outbound rates from China to Europe. In fact, China to the USWC rates are holding, but much lower on a year-ago basis. Bulk cargo rates fell -12% in the past week to be +68% higher than year-ago levels.

And official forecasters are now certain enough to warn of a severe El Niño climate event starting soon. The US issued its official warning after Australia said the chances are rising. We are being warned to expect 2026-27 to bring global risks of intense heat waves, sharp drops in rainfall in some key areas but deluges in other parts. India is expected to get a weak monsoon.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.45%, down -9 bps for the day.

The price of gold has recovered +US$54 from yesterday at US$4152/oz. Silver is up US$1.50 at US$66/oz.

Oil prices are down -US$5 from yesterday at just under US$86.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$89.50/bbl. Hormuz transits are resuming today with 69 in the past 24 hours as owners rush to get their ships out.

The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just under 58.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 82.7 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.8 which is also little-changed from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,223 and up +2.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.0%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. 

Today we lead with news the US is frustrated with Iran and is promising even more military strikes. The deal Trump thought was close, isn't. The escalation threat has oil and financial markets reacting badly.

But first today, American CPI inflation jumped from 3.8% in April to 4.2% in May, largely as expected and largely based on higher fuel costs. This is its highest since April 2023. Today's geopolitical events and markets reactions probably mean it isn't finished with the current trajectory. Actually, for March, April and now May, their CPI index rose +2.0% in just those months, so the rate being experienced by consumers (annualised +8%?) is very much higher than the annual one reported.

The White House reaction was very unexpected: Trump said, "You know, I love the inflation." Certainly, financial markets were unimpressed.

There was a large jump in American mortgage applications last week even though benchmark home loan interest rates stayed elevated at about 6.6%. After six weeks of holding back, it seems borrowers are coming to accept that they have to pay these higher rates. Remember pre-war, these rates were under 6.1%. The jump in applications this week were from both new borrowers and those needing refinance.

For a seventh straight week, and including stocks in their strategic reserve, American crude oil stocks dropped in the latest update, and by almost double the rate expected.

Today's US Treasury 10yr bond auction was well supported and yield's rose only modestly for this one, coming in at 4.48% median (4.54% high bid), up from 4.41% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.

In Canada, their central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% as expected, and for the fifth consecutive time. They had inflation at 2.8% in April so, so far, there is little evidence higher energy prices are being passed on or embedded in their consumer cost base.

Data out in Japan yesterday shows their May producer prices rose +6.3% from a year ago, up from 5.3% in April and the fastest rise since the end of the pandemic in March 2023. After the April spurt, they rose another +0.9% in May alone.

China's CPI inflation level was low and stable in May, coming in at 1.2% from a year ago, unchanged from April. Beef prices were up +4.2% however and lamb prices up +6.2%. Egg prices are up +6.6% on the same basis and a five year high. These were more than offset by a -16% drop in Chinese pork prices though. And dairy prices fell -1.2% on the same year-ago basis.

But China's producer prices are not so calm. In fact they rose an outsized +5.8% in May from a year ago for industrial products, up 3.9% overall when you broaden the categories to include food, clothing and other goods produced for consumers. Apart from the pandemic, the headline 3.9% is the highest they have had since August 2018.

In Australia, we should note that their emergency petrol tax concession will end at the end of June. That will juice up their inflation if it isn't extended.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.54%, up +1 bp for the day. 

The price of gold will start today down another -US$160 from yesterday at US$4098/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at US$64.50/oz.

Oil prices are up +US$3 from yesterday at just under US$91.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$94.50/bbl. Hormuz transits are almost non-existent today, only 2 in the past 24 hours..

The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.8 which is down -10 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$61,781 and little-changed (up +0.3%) from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.7%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news uncertainty swirls in the Middle East as Iran has shot down an American Apache helicopter (and Trump is looking more like Jimmy Carter by the day). But more ships are transiting (paying Iran's toll), and that extra oil is easing the global price.

But first locally, the overnight dairy Pulse auction delivered lower prices for the four products offered. AMF was down -4.6% from last week's full auction. Butter was down -0.6%. SMP was down -5.5% and WMP was down -3.5%. But an intervening -2% fall in the NZD took some of the sting out of these retreats.

In the US, NFIB Business Optimism Index fell again and to its lowest since October 2024.. These businesses are struggling with "significant and unpredictable hikes in fuel prices", which they find harder to pass on to their customers compared to their larger corporate competitors.

The weekly ADP jobs report said new private sector jobs created were lower last week at +29,000, in fact their lowest since the end of March.

American existing home sales actually rose in May to an annualised rate of 4.17 mln, its highest of the year. This was impressive because mortgage interest rates rose in the period and seems not to have been the handbrake sometimes assumed. All the same, unsold inventory rose.

There was a small but notable increase in demand for the overnight and popular US Treasury 3 year bond which delivered a median yield of 4.15% (high of 4.19%), sharply up on the 3.92% median at the prior equivalent event a month ago.

In April, US exports of goods and services rose +2.6% from March +12.5% from a year ago, helped by better exports of crude oil, AI computer gear and aircraft, but most offset by a quite sharp fall in tourism receipts. Imports were up +1.9% from March, up +9.1% from a year ago, dominated by capital goods and rising transport and travel cost by Americans. Their trade deficit narrowed slightly, but big trade deficits remained with Taiwan (-$19.3 nln), Vietnam (-$19.3 bln), Mexico (-$14.8 bln), China (-$12.0 bln), the EU (-$7.2 bln), and Canada (-$6.2 bln).

The Texas screwworm outbreak is spreading which will affect their beef trade. The outbreak now includes for a dog.

Meanwhile, Canadian exports rose +1.6% from the previous month to C$75.2 bln in April, the highest on record and up +24.7% from the same month a year ago. Imports rose too, but they still managed to report their best monthly trade surplus since January 2025 and their best April since 2008.

Across the Pacific, China’s exports surged +19.4% in May from a year ago to a record high of US$377 bln, far exceeding forecasts of +15% and accelerating sharply from April’s 14.1% rise. It was the fastest increase since February and gave them a trade surplus of +US$105.4 bln. However, Chinese oil imports hit an eight year low in May.

Across the strait, Taiwan said its exports rose even more impressively, up +52% from a year ago. Their imports were up +55%. That means a trade surplus for them of +US$17.9 bln, middle-range for what they have had since October 2025 and wildly higher than in any prior period

Japanese machine tool orders fell in May from April after falling in April too. But they remain up +37% from a year ago. The monthly easing was for orders from both domestic and foreign customers.

Staying in Japan, reports are growing that their central bank will raise its policy rate by +25 bps to 1.0% when they meet on Friday week. And they are likely to pause their JGB bond sell-down program that is underway.

And in Indonesia, their central bank held an emergency meeting to assess the economic crisis growing in their financial and fx markets. At that meeting they hikes their policy rate to 5.50%, a hike of +25 bps. They last met only three weeks ago when they raised their rate by +25 bps at that time too. They started 2026 with a 4.75% rate. Their actions are required to stop the Indonesian currency falling sharply, down -7.8% in 2026.

In Europe, the Netherlands blocked an American company from buying a local firm that handles its national ID system, saying it would create a “threat to the public interest.”

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.53%, down -2 bps for the day.

The price of gold will start today down -US$75 from yesterday at US$4258/oz. Silver is down a sharp -US$3.50 at just under US$65/oz.

Oil prices are down -US$2.50 from yesterday at just under US$88.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$91.50/bbl. Hormuz transits are still very low despite the pricing optimism. China’s crude imports dropped to around 7.8 million barrels per day last month, the lowest level in more than eight years and nearly 4 million barrels per day below the 2025 average. Weaker shipments to from the world’s largest oil importer even if caused by Hormuz, combined with record US exports and emergency reserve releases, has limited the price impact of the Middle East conflict.

The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 58.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.9 which is up +10 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$61,545 and down -2.95% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.6%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news that yesterday's renewed hostilities between Israel and Iran seem to have been paused. And financial markets are reacting as though this is something permanent, a deluded reading of even recent history. It is more an excuse to bet on higher equity prices again.

Away from these irrational markets and after hitting a two and a half year high in April at 3.5%, American inflation expectations for one year ahead slipped back to 3.2% in May, according to the latest national New York Fed survey update. Given that April's actual inflation was recorded at 3.8%, this represents a sanguine view of what lies ahead.

More broadly, the same survey shows that households expect their financial situation to deteriorate.

It is not only households. In a focus on the SME sector, another national review found them deeply pessimistic about 2026 prospects.

Across the Pacific in Japan, some top-line data out yesterday for the March quarter points to improving metrics. GDP came in with a +1.8% growth rate and better than expected (+1.3%). And bank lending data shot up in May, up +5.7% and easily exceeding the expansion of +5.4% in April from a year ago.

In China, construction machinery sales were strong in May with excavator sales up +36% from year-ago levels as infrastructure projects gain momentum.

Things are not so bright for car sales in China. Sales ‌dropped -22% from a year earlier to 1.53 million vehicles in May, the eighth consecutive monthly fall. Even EV sales fell (-5%).

In Germany, they posted some negative factory order data for April. They were down -3.8% on an inflation adjusted basis from the previous month, but that came after a +4.5% rise on the same basis for March. From a year ago, also in real terms, German factory orders were up +1.6% in April. And factory sales didn't decline in April either.

In the Persian Gulf, to cross the Strait of Hormuz, the transit trickle is still low but not zero. Only ten ships crossed in the past 24 hours. It has now been 100 days since the crisis began and it seems Iran is successfully tolling the Strait, according to maritime sources.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.55%, up just +1 bp for the day. 

The price of gold will start today up +US$5 from yesterday at US$4333/oz. Silver is up +US$1 at just under US$68.50/oz.

Oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday at just on US$91/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$94/bbl and up +US$1. Hormuz transits are still very low despite the pricing optimism.

The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at this time at just over 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 82.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.8 which is up +20 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$63,416 and up +1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.5%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news US benchmark interest rates rose notably after their apparently strong labour market report.

But first, locally this week it will be about migration and travel data for April, possibly plus the May PMIs.

In Australia, we will be watching for the April building permit data, along with updates for May for their consumer and business confidence surveys.

In the US, they will release its consumer and producer inflation figures, the final price gauges before this month's Federal Reserve decision at the end of next week, in addition to existing home sales and their trade balance.

Likewise, trade data and inflation data is coming from China as well as new yuan lending data. Trade data from Taiwan will drop this week too.

And at the end of the week we will get central bank decisions from Canada and the ECB.

On the corporate front, SpaceX will release what is likely to be the largest IPO on record.

Over the weekend, China said its foreign exchange reserves swelled again and are now at US$3.44 tln and their highest since October 2015. They added a bit more gold but its value eased in the past month, so this wasn't a factor in the expanding reserves.

Also, there was data out for Taiwanese inflation (firmish but low at 2.2%), Singapore retail (doing better with a +5.4% rise from a year ago), and an Indian central bank policy rate review (holding at 5.25%). None of these moved markets.

Meanwhile, India said its Q1-2026 economic expansion rolled on with a better growth rate (+7.8%) than markets were expecting (+7.2%).

In the US, the anticipated non-farm payrolls report delivered a strong result over the weekend, with a +172,000 jobs gain at the headline level and more than double the expected +82,000 gain. From a year ago, that is a rise of +503,000. But this data is the seasonally adjusted result from payroll employment. Looking more broadly, US civilian employment rose +149,000 in May from April but is -504,000 lower than year-ago levels. It is clearly very tough indeed for the unincorporated self employed.

Of the headline jobs gain, +70,000 were in their hospitality sector (expecting a soccer World Cup boost?), local government added +55,000 jobs, healthcare +35,000, social assistance +17,000. There we no changes or declines in the manufacturing, IT and administration sectors, and little in the construction sector. Basically, lower paid jobs rose, higher paid ones shrank. The US no longer releases details of full-time, part-time job changes or detail.

Total American consumer debt rose by +US$21 in May, following a downwardly revised +US$22 bln gain in April. This was slightly more than expected. Revolving credit, which includes credit card debt, rose +US$14 bln while nonrevolving credit, which includes vehicle and student loans, rose +US$8 bln in the month. This data shows sustained consumer demand for debt despite elevated borrowing costs and the rising interest-rate environment.

And that, along with the gritty labour market questions, has driven a pullback in attitudes, to a more risk-off, defensive posture at the end of last week. More investors see the US Fed pushing ahead with rate hikes earlier than anticipated to try and not be blindsided from rising inflation getting embedded. After all, the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, and oil prices have ended the week higher than where they started.

In turn that risk-off has driven US benchmark interest rates up, equity markets lower, and the US currency very much higher,

Canada also released its May jobs data over the weekend and that was better than expected too. They added +88,000 jobs when a gain of only +10,000 was anticipated. Better, their full-time jobs grew +154,000 in the month, as part-time jobs shrank. Their jobless rates fell notably to 6.6%, from 6.9% in April and continuing the downward trend that started in October 2025. A stronger jobs market may also give the Bank of Canada cover to raise rates to get ahead of their inflation threats, too.

In the EU, Ireland has had a stunning reversal of fortune, with their economy contracting more than -12% in Q1-2026. It alone was enough to twist the overall EU GDP lower. Ireland's multinational-dominated sectors contracted by -27% in Q1-2026 with their domestic sectors expanding by +0.4% and more in line with the other EU countries.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.54%, unchanged from this time Saturday but up +11 bps for the week. 

The price of gold will start today up +US$4 from Saturday at US$4328/oz. That is down -US$227/oz (or -5.1%) from this time last week and about its lowest level of the year. Silver is down -50 USc at just under US$67.50/oz, down -10% for the week.

Oil prices are little-changed from Saturday just on US$90.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$93/bbl. Hormuz transits are still very low despite the pricing optimism. A week ago these prices were US$87.50/bbl and US$91.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar has stayed down from Saturday at this time at just under 58 USc. From a week ago it is down -190 bps. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.6 which is down -10 bps from Saturday, down -170 bps for the week.

The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$62,246 and recovering +3.4% from this time Saturday and still falling. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.1%. 

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with Hezbollah has rejected being part of a US-Iran accommodation, and Israel is continuing to attack it in Beirut and southern Lebanon. Despite this, markets still hope that a ceasefire can be agreed and the Strait of Hormuz opened. They are pricing it will, but it is shut still today.

Elsewhere and in the US, there were 97,000 announced job cuts in May, the most since January and the highest May since 2020 and the pandemic effect - and prior to that the highest since this tracking began in 1999. Most of the current layoffs are in the tech industry, and due to AI displacement.

Markets await the May non-farm payrolls report tomorrow and the expectation is for a modest +85,000 net jobs gain. This is despite the private ADP report indicating a higher level.

US initial jobless claims were little-changed last week at 188,000 although seasonal factors would have expected a solid -10,000 fall from that level. There are now 1.64 mln people on these benefits. lower than year ago levels.

And staying in the US, they have found the flesh-eating screwworm in their Texas cattle herd, another reason their beef industry is unlikely to be able to sustain its output.

The EU said its retail sales volume growth was weak in April, up +0.9%, up +1.0% in the euro area from a year ago. From the prior month, these volumes dipped. But this dip actually doesn't interrupt the rising trend in place since late 2023

We are ending the week with the price of some key commodities like copper, tin and aluminium hold just off their recent peaks.

China is facing broad pushback at the level of subsidising it gives its steel industry. The OECD singled them out for criticism urging coordinated action against them to save capability around the world. A new round of defensive trade barriers will likely follow. Chinese over-capacity is enabled by these subsidies and it drives down prices everywhere as Chinese companies rush to quit stocks they can't sell at home.

The geopolitical toll on the logistics industry is starting to bite. Global container freight rates surged +23% this week from the prior week to be up basically level with year-ago levels (which were unusually high due to the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea). Most of this is due to the hikes in rates for the outbound China trade routes. Meanwhile bulk cargo freight rates eased back a minor -3% after their recent peak last week.

In Australia, AI is being put to use driving legal claims by amateurs. Courts are being flooded with AI written plaintiff claims, especially for personal injury, unfair dismissal, rent disputes, and 'pain & suffering' claims. New powers are being rushed through the Canberra parliament to try and stem the flood.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.47%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday.

The price of gold will start today up +US$41 at US$4478/oz. Silver is up +50 USc at just under US$74/oz.

Oil prices are down -US$4 just over US$92/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$94.50/bbl and down -US$3.50. Hormuz remains shut however despite the pricing optimism.

The Kiwi dollar is firmer from yesterday at this time at 58.8 USc, up +20 bps. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just under 50.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.3 which is up +10 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$63,013 and down another -4.3% from this time yesterday and still falling. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just under +/- 3.9%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news intensified clashes in the Persian Gulf has oil prices rising, little transit activity in the Strait of Hormuz, and significant disconnect from Trump's claim that both sides are still negotiating. Clearly they aren't,

In the world economy, and first in the US, mortgage applications fell again last week, a third consecutive weekly easing mostly driven by lower refinance activity. Mortgage interest rates eased back however even if they remain at close to one year highs.

Ahead of this weekend's US non-farm payrolls report (expect +85,000), private businesses added +122,000 jobs in May according to the ADP survey, a new high since January 2025, compared to a downwardly revised +105,000 in April and above forecasts of +117,000. Hiring was broad-based they report and say it augers well going into the summer hiring season.

But this isn't backed up by the US services PMIs for the US.

The May ISM services PMI reported a good expansion, about the average it has been in 2026 and slightly higher than expected. Good new order flows are behind the result. But the same firms reported contracting staffing levels and faster input cost pressures. The parallel S&P Global services PMI was less upbeat, noting a muted increase in business activity, optimism faltering and employment falling solidly. Overall, it is a jobless expansion, these PMIs both say.

US factory orders are reflecting some of the stockpiling effects we have noted earlier. In April these orders rose +13.0% in nominal dollar terms above year-ago levels. But without aircraft and defense orders, they were up +5.8% - still a good result but mostly accounted for by inflation. And remember PPI rose +6.0% in the same twelve month period.

American crude oil stocks fell again, for the sixth consecutive week and the largest fall in this period. Over the past year, it has fallen more only in three specific weeks but each of those were not in a continuing series. Their strategic oil stocks are now at their lowest in 22 years.

The US Fed's Beige Book surveys for May reported most of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts had slight-to-modest increases in growth, though a handful experienced flat or slightly declining activity. Labour markets remained tight but were cooling. Business respondents said rising input costs for nonlabour inputs were largely able to be passed on to consumers. Consumer spending was described as mixed, heavily influenced by affordability concerns and shifts in discretionary income.

In Canada key housing markets in Ontario, new listings have fallen, as have prices, and more homes are selling but also, more are selling at a loss.

In Japan, their central bank will meet next in a bit over a week and their Governor has indicated that rate hikes will be discussed to weigh against rising inflation, even that pushed by higher energy costs.

According to the private S&P Global (RatingDog) services PMI for China, that sector is expanding on a faster basis, much stronger than as reported by their official data. New business is expanding and they are hiring faster. But they also face their highest cost pressure since October 2023.

Meanwhile, Australia released its Q1-2026 GDP data today, saying their economy expanded +2.5% in real terms over the past year. But the growth rate slowed in the March quarter from the December 2025 quarter. Rising interest rates and significantly higher fuel costs in the March month likely created an environment for more cautious consumer behaviour. This resulted in reduced spending across a range of household expenditure categories. And exports fell. The unders and overs likely balanced out but the level of spending on equipment for new data centers was so large it might have accounted for all the Q1 gain.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.49%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday. 

The price of gold will start today down -US$45 at US$4437/oz. Silver is down -US$1.50 at just under US$73.50/oz.

Oil prices are up another +US$2.50 just over US$96/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$98/bbl and up +US$2. Hormuz remains shut.

The Kiwi dollar is lower from yesterday at this time at 58.6 USc, down -60 bps. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -40 bps at just under 50.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.2 which is down -50 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$65,847 and down another -2.4% from this time yesterday and still falling. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest however at just under +/- 1.9%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news of a changing of the guard. Countries are moving away from US Treasuries as a core reserve asset, replacing it with gold. At the same time, crypto values including for bitcoin, seem to be fading fast.

But first up today, there was a full dairy auction overnight, one that brought slightly lower overall prices, with the USD index falling -0.6% mainly on -3% lower SMP prices. Milk fat products like AMF. Butter and Cheddar all rose, offsetting the fall in powder prices. But the NZD has also strengthened, so the result in NZD terms was a -2.0% fall. A pull-back in demand from China is part of this story too.

In the US, they reported a surge in April job openings, their most in 18 months, notably in California and other western states. It is a services related thing, with manufacturing jobs not really participating.

Meanwhile, the US RCM/TIPP economic sentiment survey fell slightly in June from may, but to its lowest in two years.

And the US Logistics Managers Index is showing the full impacts of the current supply-chain disruptions and stockpiling. It held in May at its highest since the pandemic stress period. It is increasing at an increasing rate for inventory costs, warehousing capacity, and freight prices.

In China, we should note that it is wheat harvest season and that they expect a bumper result. At the same time, both Australian and US farmers are hesitating in their plans for wheat as high fertiliser and fuel costs threaten to make the prospects very uncertain.

In the EU and as expected, CPI inflation firmed up to 3.2% in May from 3.0% in April. Their core inflation rose as well. It seems to be only about rising fuel costs at present with the spread wider quite limited. Will the ECB hike its policy rate on June 11? Markets are betting 100% it will.

In Australia, they have slipped into their first trade deficit since 2017 in the March 2026 quarter. Exports of minerals fell (except for gold) while imports of data center equipment surged.

Globally, it is worth noting again that aluminium, zinc, copper and tin are all now either at record highs or at post-pandemic highs.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.46%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday. 

The price of gold will start today down -US$9 at US$4482/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at just over US$75/oz.

Interestingly, an ECB analysis released overnight has highlighted that after the run-up in the gold price, at the same time as the value of US Treasuries fell, gold was the largest single asset held for 'foreign reserves'. (see Chart 7)

Oil prices are up another +US$2 just under US$93.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now on US$96/bbl and up +US$1.50. Hormuz remains shut.

The Kiwi dollar is lower from yesterday at this time at 59.2 USc, down -30 bps. Against the Aussie we are also down -40 bps at 82.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just under 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62.7 which is down -20 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$67,464 and down a sharp -5.9% from this time yesterday and falling. Crypto funds are getting excess redemptions at present. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just under +/- 3.5%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the scale of Trump's strategic failure with Iran is becoming clearer. Iran holds the key cards, it seems, and there is little but bluster and renewing its military flailing he can do about it. Even Israel seem to be ignoring Trump's potency, which is another signal of regional chaos.

Iranian media reported that Tehran had suspended communications with Washington, following the attacks in Lebanon, and will move to fully close the Strait of Hormuz - and open new fronts in their war pushback.

We are just going to have to live with the resulting chronic mess. And that probably means elevated inflation for much longer and all that brings with it - like supply chain disruptions and logistic twists.

Stockpiling, itself an indication of economic inefficiency, is the current way the global economy is reacting, in turn an inflation enhancer.

First today in the US, that stockpiling is showing up in their two May factory PMI reports. The S&P Global version recorded output growth rose to its strongest level since April 2022 as buyers scramble to beat price rises and supply delays. Input costs rose at their fastest rate since mid-2022. Meanwhile the ISM version reported very similar conditions, even if at a slightly lesser level.

In Canada, their factory PMI version reported that growth was sustained in May as output, new orders and employment all rose. But like in the US, this is all trying to beat the cost pressures and supply chain challenges that are intensifying.

In Japan, their May factory PMI remained unusually strong. But firms there signaled further strong increases in production with sales Input costs and selling prices rising at some of the steepest rates on record. Stock building efforts are still very much in evidence amid the ongoing and substantial supply chain disruptions.

In South Korea, their factory upturn, already strong, gathered more pace amid stockpiling efforts. Output rises are their strongest in five years. Price pressures persist and remain near record highs. Meanwhile jobs growth is now at its highest since March 2013 as the outlook improves.

Meanwhile Korean exports surged +53% from a year ago to a record US$88 bln for the month. (For perspective, New Zealand exports run at about US$6 bln per month average. Australia is about US$32 bln/mth.) Their biggest increases were to China, although there were outsized export gains to the US. Their explosive growth is largely around their IT sector.

In Taiwan, their factory output expanded at quickest rate since July 2021 in May. New orders continue to rise sharply. Firms report intense cost pressures here too, amid severe supply chain disruption. Stockpiling efforts are driving a quicker upturn in purchasing activity, they say.

In China, their non-official S&P Global factory PMI was good, but nothing like their smaller neighbours. Growth rates for new orders and output remain good, although export orders fell. Input price inflation eased for first time in six months. They also have stockpiling effects as factories raised input stocks because supplier delivery times stretched out again.

Indian industrial production stayed expanding in April and at a good rate, similar to what they have had since July 2025, and showing none of the slowdown analysts had been expecting to see in their data.

EU inflation expectations as tracked by the broad ECB survey shows them unchanged at 4.0% in April. Analysts had expected them to rise to 4.3% but that didn't eventuate.

The EU factory PMI is still expanding but at quite a modest rate even as they have the same cost pressures everyone else is reporting.

In Australia, and in something of a surprise, the Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge recorded a -0.3% fall in May from April, after consecutive rises in the previous two months. The fall was primarily influenced by lower transport-related prices, attributable largely to fuel and the excise tax rollback. For the year to May this gauge reports inflation at 4.4%. The monthly cost of living also declined in May from April, particularly for self-funded retirees.

The updated Australian PMI shows little real expansion with the steepest fall in new orders since last October being recorded for May. But prices are being pushed up all the same with selling price inflation at a 45-month high as sharp rises in input costs keep coming.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.47%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday. 

Wall Street has started its week ignoring the Middle East situation with the S&P500 up +0.4% and enough to claim another new record high. The Nasdaq is up +0.7%. Both markets consumed by the big tech IPOs underway. 

The price of gold will start today down -US$48 at US$4491/oz. Silver is up +50 USc at just under US$75.50/oz.

Oil prices are up +US$4 just under US$91.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now on US$94.50/bbl and up +US$3.50. Oil had been starting to trade like Hormuz was open, but no more.

The Kiwi dollar is lower from yesterday at this time at 59.5 USc, down -50 bps. Against the Aussie we are also down -50 bps at 82.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at just under 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62.9 which is down -40 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$71.684 and down -2.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.5%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the US and Iran have apparently agreed a 60 day truce, pending Trump's signoff. All the while, both sides traded attacks in the region. The small number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz has virtually dried up.

Meanwhile, US jobless claims slipped last week to 185,600 and by about what seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.68 mln people on these benefits, less than one and two years ago.

There was a sharp drop in new home sales reported for April, and they were -11.3% lower than year ago levels. Rising mortgage rates is weighing heavily on this sector.

But they reported a sharp increase in durable goods orders in April, up +19% from a year ago, up notably from March. This is where we see the full effect of stockpiling as buyers try to get ahead of rising inflation. One reason was a +41% jump in capital goods on the same basis. But excluding defense and aircraft orders, the increase was modest.

The second estimate of GDP growth for Q1-2026 is out and it was revised lower, mainly on lower consumer spending and investment levels than in the initial estimate. They now say the US economy expanded +1.6% in the period.

They also released the April data for US personal income and personal spending. This showed that personal disposable income fell from March, up +2.5% from a year ago, while personal consumption expenditures rose, up +5.9% from a year ago. In fact, their April PCE inflation measure rose to 3.8%, its highest since May 2023 and the end of the pandemic effect, and prior to that the highest since this data was collated in 2017. Undoubtedly, this has the Fed's attention, especially the accelerating nature of it.

US crude oil and petrol stocks fell again last week, but 'only' by about the levels expected. that extends the fall to five consecutive weeks, all substantial, and coming after three prior weeks of modest or no-change outcomes. Retail pump prices for petrol are still +48% higher than at the start of the Iran-US conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

There was a US Treasury 7yr note auction overnight and the yield increase was not as fierce as yesterday's event. This one delivered a median yield of 4.24% (high 4.29%), up from the 4.12% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.

In Canada, their central bank has released and updated Financial Stability Report which found that Canada’s financial system has functioned well through a challenging year. Households and businesses remain in stable financial condition, and banks have strengthened their capacity to absorb shocks.

Meanwhile they reported that average weekly earnings rose +3.5% in March from a year ago, a faster pace of increase. They have CPI inflation of +2.8% at the same time so Canadian employees are generally staying ahead of the cost pressures.

The Korean central bank kept its official rate unchanged yesterday at 2.5%, as expected.

Updated Australian household spending data for April shows it fell -1.1% month-on-month (on a current price, seasonally adjusted basis) to be +4.9% higher than in April 2025. In the same period CPI inflation rose 4.2%. The weak outcome is being attributed to the sharp hike in fuel costs, and compensating pullbacks elsewhere. It is their first fall in household spending in four months.

And staying in Australia, they said private new capital expenditure rose +6.5% in the March quarter to be +14.6% higher than the March 2025 quarter. This strong growth is largely on the back of significant investment in data centers, up +96% and a new record high. Investment in mining was flat.

The Middle East war lead to a -3.4% fall in air passenger demand in April. But Asia/Pacific international demand rose +3.0% from a year ago. For air cargo, demand was up +4.0% despite the turmoil, up +11.3% in the Asia/Pacific region.

Global container shipping freight rates rose +3.2% last week from the prior week to be +12% higher than year-ago levels. This is largely driven by rates from China to the EU. Transpacific rates from China to the US West Coast actually fell last week. As did trade volumes. Meanwhile bulk cargo rates rose +4.4% last week, to be a massive +140% higher than a year ago.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.45%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.

The price of gold will start today up +US$57 at US$4506/oz. Silver is back up +US$1.50 at just under US$76/oz.

Oil prices have fallen -50 USc to just on US$89/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now at US$93.50/bbl and down -US$1.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from yesterday at this time at 59.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +20 bps at just under 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.8 which is up +40 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$73,455 and down -1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.0%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and because Monday is a New Zealand holiday, we’ll do this again on Tuesday.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news commodity markets are betting all-in that a deal between the US and Iran will unlock the Strait of Hormuz soon. An Iranian State TV report has triggered the optimism. (And even though the US has denied it.)

More ships are transiting, but it is still only a fraction of 'normal'. However it is enough to drive the price of crude oil lower.

But despite all that, financial markets seem to remain unconvinced, or at least they have turned defensive due to what lies ahead of a resolution. How well any deal will stick between the two parties who have become quite transactional remains to be seen. Certainly the US is unlikely to be trusted to maintain the deal by both Iran, and even its own traditional allies. Iran will be Iran, agreeing but preparing for another attack/fight. The one thing the US/Israeli thing has done is solidify the Iranian regime's position at home. It no longer has internal dissent or street challenges, and it will thank Trump for that.

In the US, mortgage applications fell sharply last week, as US 30 year mortgage rates rose. Most of the fall is from the outsized retreat in refinance activity (-18%), although new purchase activity did dip as well. Those mortgage rates rose to their highest level since August 2025.

Meanwhile, the ADP tracking of private payrolls showed the good levels continued last week, even if there was a small dip posted.

And that is supported by factory survey data out from the Richmond Fed for the mid-Atlantic states area. New order levels rose notable. And firms expected growth in prices paid to moderate slightly over the next 12 months. But there was no improvement in the forward expectations, despite these improvements.

Meanwhile the Dallas Fed services sector survey remained quite negative, even if less so in May than in April. But their uncertainty metric is notably less.

There was a US Treasury 5yr Note auction overnight and that delivered a yield of 4.13% (4.18% high), up sharply from the 3.90% yield at the prior equivalent event a month ago.

In Australia, consumer price inflation came in lower than most analysts were expecting for Aril. It rose 4.2% from a year ago, lower than the March 4.6%, and lower than the expected 4.4%. From March, CPI prices rose +0.4%, also lower in the same way. A key reason is that fuel prices fell -7.0% from March to April, after rising 33% in the previous month. The fall this month includes the halving of the fuel excise on 1 April. Fuel prices are still +23.5% higher than in February and before the impact of the Middle East conflict. Apart from fuel, outsized rises were recorded for 'housing' (+6.3%) and 'clothing' (+5.9%). The main contributors to the annual housing rise were Electricity (+22.5%), New dwellings (+4.7%) and Rents (+3.5%).

And staying in Australia, Westpac has been hit with a AU$26 mln civil penalty for not dealing with clients who were struggling financially in a proper way. Remediation of all costs to those clients was AU$1.7 mln.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.48%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday.

The price of gold will start today down another -US$49 at US$4450/oz. Silver is down -US$1.50 at just under US$74.50/oz.

Oil prices have fallen -US$4.50 to just on US$89.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now at US$95/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is up +60 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +110 bps at 82.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +50 bps at just under 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.4 which is up +60 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$74,765 and down -1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.0%.

Join us later today for full coverage of the 2026 Budget release, an election budget of course.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news 

traders who claimed to foresee a Trump 'victory' over Iran are getting a lesson in their susceptibility to propaganda.

In the Middle East, US and Israeli struck a number of Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, hours after President Donald Trump had suggested negotiations with Tehran over an interim deal were progressing. Renewed aggression there and in Lebanon hardly seems to indicate talks are "going nicely". Both sides are in a chronic violent embrace, despite what they say.

Oil prices are rising again; prospects for normalisation have faded significantly.

First we should note there was another dairy Pulse auction overnight. This on saw the butter price recover notably, up +2% from the prior week's full auction, and the SMP price fall back notably, down -5% on that same basis. The WMP price dipped -1%.

In the US, the Conference Board said its survey of consumer confidence edged down in May. But this dip wasn't quite as much as analysts had expected.

Meanwhile the May Dallas Fed factory survey edged up slightly from its languid ("stable") state, a bit less than other similar surveys and less than expected.

And the National Activity Index tracked by the Chicago Fed rose in April to its best reading since March 2025.

The US Treasury's popular 2 year bond auction today brought sharply higher yields. The median yield today was 4.02% (high was 4.07%), a big shift up from the median 3.75% at the equivalent event a month ago.

Across the Pacific, Singapore said its industrial production was up a very healthy +17.6% in April from a year ago, a rising trend and an expansion that is starting to rival Taiwan.

And in Taiwan industrial production rose at a +15% rate in April from the same month a year ago, less than in March but still the third-best month ever. The base has been rising spectacularly for more than a year now so the outsized yeay-on-year growth will ease back from here. Their retail sales were up +5.2% in April, extending the outsized improvements to three consecutive months now.

In Malaysia, it appears that they have instituted a 10% tariff on imported gold bars, surprising dealers and buyers alike.

We should note that the aluminium price pushed up yet again, now very close to the brief pandemic-induced peak. Also tin prices are also near record highs, but this is nothing to do with the Middle East. Rather it relates to an Indonesian crackdown on illegal tin mining there, which has been extensive. They are going after the palm oil industry too, but over financial issues.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.49%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday.

The price of gold will start today down -US$64 at US$4499/oz. Silver is down -US$2at just under US$76/oz.

Oil prices have risen +US$3.50 to just under US$94/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is up +US$3 to just on US$99.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -40 bps at 81.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at just under 50.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.8 which is down -30 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$75,906 and down -2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news oil prices have slid on hopes of a US-Iran deal. But despite US statements saying talks are "going nicely", Iran seems to be saying otherwise even if they are engaged in talks. But they seem to be talks-about-talks. Supposed insider information says the Strait of Hormuz will still be closed for another 60 days "for mine-clearing" (some say 30 days). And the US is adding new conditions each time the sides meet. Meanwhile, two LNG tankers have passed through the Strait in the past 24 hours.

Just a reminder that the US is on a long weekend holiday and we won't be getting data updates from there until tomorrow morning from there. Pre-market activity (futures) is still active however.

So first, like Japan, Singapore reported that their April CPI inflation pressure stayed very low and contained, up just +1.8% from a year ago, down -0.3% from March. Fuel costs are a small part of their index. The big mover was for clothing and that fell sharply.

Singapore also said its Q1-2026 expansion was +6.0% from the same quarter a year ago, bettering the +5.7% expansion in the previous quarter, and better than forecast (+5.1%). But they are much less bullish on how the year will turn out, revising that to "2%-4%" as Trump's Gulf War takes its toll.

But in Malaysia they reported a sharp jump in producer costs. Their producer prices rose +5.4% in April from a year ago, picking up from just a +1.1% rise in March. Prior to that, their PPI had fallen consistently since March 2025. This latest increase was also the most since August 2022, all driven by the mounting disruptions from the war in Iran.

In China, they said foreign direct investment fell -10.3% in the first four months of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025. Things got off to a negative start, but regained some initiative in April. (April 2025 was a particularly weak base.)

And global demand for yuan-denominated financing is rising, with panda and dim sum bond issuance climbing sharply in early 2026 as borrowers look to diversify away from costly US dollar funding. Panda bond issuance - yuan debt sold on the Chinese mainland by overseas institutions - topped US$13 bln in the first quarter, nearly half of last year’s total. Dim sum bonds are those issued outside China, in yuan. They hit US$45 bln in the quarter, also on track to beat the 2025 level. Yuan funding comes with much lower interest rates than US dollar funding.

We should probably also note that the Pope has issued an encyclical on how AI should be managed, by politicians and company managers. Like many previous Papal encyclicals, if is likely to be influential in debates about AI.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.47%, down -10 bps from this time yesterday. 

The price of gold will start today up +US$55 at US$4563/oz. Silver is up +US$2.50at just over US$78/oz.

Oil prices have fallen -US$6.50 to just on US$90.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is down -US$7.50 to just on US$96.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 81.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just under 50.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62.1 which is up +10 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,502 and up +1.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news of an apparent agreement to wind back the crisis levels in the Persian Gulf. But details are not available. One thing is clear however, the US will be in a significantly worse position than if the Obama deal with Iran had not been torn up by Trump.

Follow up statements by Trump that "It isn’t even fully negotiated yet" suggest things aren't quite as close as he earlier suggested. And the headline news that one "Supertanker With Iraq Crude Exits Persian Gulf as Talks Continue" highlights how little progress has actually been made.

But locally this week will be dominated by two big set piece announcements. First, the RBNZ will review its monetary policy settings and while no-one expects them to change, all eyes will on how they view the current inflation pressures. Markets have a +25 bps hike priced in for July 8. Following that, the Government will deliver its election Budget. It will likely be all "jam today" but couched as 'responsible restraint'. Credit rating agencies will be interested readers, especially around the credibility of the forecasting.

And on Friday, there will be the usual month-end data released for April, plus a mountain of March quarter data released. And the RBNZ's Dashboard will also drop on Friday.

In Australia, we will get the April CPI data on Wednesday, and the household spending update on Thursday, both expected to be elevated.

It will be a busy week in Japan where we will get industrial production, retail sales, consumer confidence, and the unemployment rate. Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea will also decide on monetary policy. Data from China will be relatively light, but we will be interested in their FDI update.

We should note that this will be a long weekend holiday in the US, Memorial Day, and their unofficial start of 'summer'. For the record, tradition states that investors should "sell in May and go away" until the end of this period on their Labor Day (September 7). This 'rule' is a warning that their summer financial markets can be volatile. Wall Street will re-open on Wednesday, NZT.

Data from the US this week will limited, although PCE data, and the weekly ADP Employment update will be watched closely. As will the durable goods order data.

Over the weekend the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to a record low in May, revised down sharply from the earlier and preliminary report. This is the third straight monthly decline. Petrol prices are getting the blame and it's cause, the chaotic Middle East adventure. The cost of living remained the top concern in this survey, with 57% of consumers spontaneously citing high prices as eroding their personal finances.

Lower-income consumers and those without college degrees posted the steepest declines, as these groups are more sensitive to rising gas and essentials costs. Critically, consumers grew increasingly worried that inflation would spread beyond fuel prices in the long term. Year-ahead inflation expectations edged up to 4.8% from 4.7%, while long-run expectations climbed to 3.9% from 3.5%.

Things may not get easier, even with slightly lower oil prices. Fed governor Waller said he supports removing the "easing bias" language from the Fed's outlook, and the next change could be a hike, even if it is some way off. He followed that up with remarks that it would be "crazy" to lower rates at this time.

investors are bullish that the Iran-US war will end soon, but consumers are very negative about how all this is hurting them. Profits are remaining high, insulated from the rising costs, but household living costs are making consumers very grumpy.

In Canada, and for a fourth month in a row, retail sales rose in April, but largely because petrol prices are higher. And that is even after the volume of petrol sales fell. In fact, overall sales volumes are trending lower.

Canadian producer prices rose a sharp +2.0% in April from March, to be an uncomfortable +11.4% higher than year-ago levels. These changes are worse than expected.

Despite all the global pressure their business are under, Japanese consumers avoided the impacts in April. Their inflation edged down to 1.4% from 1.5% in March. Food prices rose the least in 18 months amid a further slowdown in rice costs.

After falling sharply in April, South Korean consumer sentiment rebounded in May, although not quite back to levels it was between June 2025 and March 2026. Still, this new level is above every month from December 2021 to May 2025 and was a much stronger bounce-back than was anticipated.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.57%, up +2 bps from this time Saturday.

The price of gold will start today down -US$6 at US$4509/oz to be down -US$42 for the week. Silver is down -50 USc at just under US$75.50/oz.

Oil prices have firmed +50 USc to just on US$97/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is up at just on US$104/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from Saturday at this time at 58.5 USc and up +10 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are holding at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62 which is down -10 bps from Saturday, up +10 bps for the week.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$76,601 and very little-changed, down just -0.1% from this time Saturday, but down -3.2% from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.4%.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news no-one knows what is going on in the Iran-US 'negotiations' - least of all Trump. Ships are transiting at trickle-pace, but they tend to be large Chinese tankers. The bottom line is essentially 'no progress'.

And although the benchmark 10 year bond yields are basically holding, yields for shorter terms are catching up, so a rate flattening is underway.

US jobless claims dipped last week, and by marginally more than seasonal factors would have expected.

Precautionary stockpiling by manufacturers is currently driving the US factory sector. New order growth slowed slightly but is still higher than normal in May, according to the latest S&P Global PMI for the US. But factory activity has taken a step up so output is rising at its fastest pace in four years. Driving all this is the need to get ahead of surging input costs, which are spiking in dramatic fashion.

But the activity surge isn't everywhere. The Philly Fed's factory survey unexpectedly contracted in May. The Kansas City Fed's survey was little-changed from a modest expansion. Both saw very little respite from elevated input costs.

US housing starts dipped in April from the good March levels. They are being held up on the same drive to get ahead of expected large cost increases.

Across the Pacific in Korea, they are feeling producer price inflation at disarmingly high levels. They rose +2.5% in April to be 6.9% higher than year ago levels. But factory input costs rose an average of +11.3% mainly for fuel and other oil-based inputs. And this is very interesting.

After a strong rise in February, Japanese machinery orders were expected to ease back in March, and they did, and by about the expected level. However, export orders remained very strong. They are expecting the April-June quarter to just be level-pegging with the same period a year ago. But this whole machinery manufacturing sector is in an upswing phase that started in 2023 and one that gathered some real impetus from mid-2025.

That Japanese factory order data is confirmed in April export data out yesterday. Japan's exports jumped almost +15% to a near-record high of ¥10.5 tln in April, accelerating from an +11.5% gain in March, the fastest pace in three months and topping market forecasts. Exports grew to China (+15.5%), the US (+9.5%), ASEAN (+19.9%), the EU (+26.9%), and India (+8.9%). The May Japanese factory PMI is still expanding quite quickly but cost pressures are surging.

In India, their PMI is little changed at a healthy expansion, but they report that further expansion is being capped by this rising cost pressure.

EU consumer sentiment has stayed very low in May, even if it did bounce back from the ugly April level. The EU economy is being forecasted to slow down amid rising inflation following the energy shock.

The Eurozone factory PMI is still expanding, but less so, and under heavy input cost pressure too.

The Australian labour market is weakening with a turn lower in April. The number of employed people fell by -19,000 in April, while the number of unemployed people rose by +33,000. Markets had expected employment to rise by +10,000. Their jobless rate is now 4.5%, the highest in seven months. (The New Zealand jobless rate was 5.3% in March 2026.)

The April PMIs are out for Australia, and they show weakening business conditions. The S&P Global factory PMI slowed to a stall with the private sector getting its steepest fall in new business in over four-and-a-half years. The service sector is now in contraction after March's stall.

And staying in Australia, there has been an outpouring of voices, a veritable cacophony, claiming the loss of low tax capital gains is an affront, "punishing aspiration". "stifling innovation". Since when did 'aspiration' and 'innovation' rely so heavily on discounted taxes on the gains made from this activity? Inequitable taxes on this activity is just distorting behaviour and it helps misrepresent what is being achieved. It also loads more tax on those that can't avail themselves of these distortions. They all want a "level playing field" - unless the playing field is unlevel in their favour. What we are seeing is a classic lesson for anyone designing a tax system. Make it neutral and fair to start with.

Global container freight rates rose +6% last week to be +10% above year-ago levels, driven largely by outbound rates from China to the EU. Bulk freight rates fell -5.7% in the past week, easing after the prior six week run-up reaction to Trump's Gulf War. But that still leaves them +125% higher than year-ago levels.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.58%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday. 

The price of gold will start today up +US$20 at US$4553/oz. Silver is up +US$1 at just under US$77/oz.

Oil prices have dipped -50 USc to just over US$97/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now at just on US$103.50/bbl

The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 50.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.3 which is up +10 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,759 and up +0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 1%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news there is optimism the Persian Gulf oil supply may be easing as satellite data showed three supertankers crossing the Strait. Most were Chinese. But there is still 160 tankers trapped in the Gulf as Iran now effectively controls the passage. US moves now depend on Trump's latest mood change.

The latest update of US crude oil stocks showed another outsized reduction last week (-7.9 mlb barrels), and again far more than expected (-2.9 mln bbl). Petrol stocks fell too, but more modestly although that extends this decline to 14 straight weeks. US strategic reserves were reduced almost -10 mln barrels last week.

And staying in the US, mortgage applications fell last week, all on new purchase applications because home loan interest rate benchmarks jumped. Refinance activity was stable however.

Those rising interest rates are a market response to rising inflation. And the latest Fed minutes reveal that most Fed governors are worried too. A majority warned they would likely need to consider raising interest rates if inflation continued to run persistently above their 2% target. They wanted to drop its easing bias and signal its next move could be an interest-rate increase. This puts incoming Fed chairman Warsh in a tough spot because he was appointed to do the opposite. It looks like he won't have the votes.

There was a US Treasury 20 year bond auction overnight and that brought slightly higher demand, no doubt in part because the median yield rose to 5.07% with a high of 5.12%. That is up sharply from 4.84% (4.88%) at the prior equivalent event a month ago.

Across the Pacific, analysts and cottoning on to how strong Taiwan's export orders are flowing. For April they forecast a +52% rise, but it 'only' came in at +48% from year ago levels. Still these orders ran at their second highest level on record.

Meanwhile, China reviewed its loan prime rates& yesterday and kept them both unchanged at record low levels. That means they actually haven't changed in a year now.

In Malaysia, their exports surged on manufactured orders. They rose almost +37% to a record high, accelerating sharply from March’s upwardly revised +8.4% increase and far exceeding forecasts of +9% for April. This was their best export growth result since August 2022.

In Indonesia, their central bank delivered something of a surprise, hiking their policy rate +50 bps when a +25 bps rise was expected. That takes it to 5.25% and back to August 2025 levels. Driving the change was a need to strengthen the rupiah, curb imported inflation risks, and keep domestic inflation within the government’s mid-point target of 2.5% (±1%).

In Australia, a new labour market data series from employer tax filings shows there were 15.5 mln employee jobs in March, up +1.0% from a year ago, or +147,000 more. They were paid +6.0% more than a year ago. Obviously some of this is for the growth in the paid workforce, and that extra pay is before accounting for inflation.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.57%, down -10 bps from this time yesterday. 

The price of gold will start today up +US$33 at US$4533/oz. Silver is up +US$1.50 at just over US$76/oz.

American oil prices have fallen -US$6 to just on US$97.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just over US$104.50/bbl, down -US$5.50.

The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 50.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62.2 which is up +30 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,559 and up +1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.9%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the bond market is dominating the news today with sharply rising long term yields as investors see no end in sight top the war inflation upon us now.

The benchmark US Treasury 10 year yield is now up to its highest since the brief October 2025 spike, and before that, it highest since 2023. In those earlier peaks, there was nothing like the fundamental inflationary pressure building now. And the US Treasury 30 bond yield is now at its highest since 2007.

And if it lasts, yield asset valuations are at risk, especially real estate. There is already severe valuation pressure in the commercial office market from low demand. A higher cost of money could do widespread damage to these market valuations, globally.

But first today, the overnight full Global Dairy Trade auction saw prices rise +0.6% in USD terms, rise +1.55% in NZD terms. This is a stable commodity in a sea of instability elsewhere. The outcome may have been helped by the low volumes on offer, down -15% from the same auction a year ago.

In the US, private employers added an average of 42,250 jobs per week in the four weeks to May 2, up from 33,000 in the prior period, according to the ADP Research. Strong hiring in healthcare is a key feature.

US pending home sales rose +1.4% in April from March to be +3.2% higher than year-ago levels. But the recent modest rises are not yet enough to make back the big falls in December and the small fall in January. The sharply rising 30 year bond rates will likely affect this market going forward.

In Canada and as expected, their headline CPI inflation rose 2.8% in April from 2.4% in March and the highest in two years, But this is notably lower than the expected 3.1% rate and probably takes the pressure off their central bank to raise rates.

In Japan, they said their GDP came in with a +2.1% (real) annual expansion are in Q1-2026, up from the +0.8% in Q4-2025. A rise was anticipated but only to +1.7%.

In China, the always excellent Bill Bishop has used AI (Claude) to compare what the Chinese think was accomplished, with what the US think. It is here. There is some overlap. But there is clearly much confusion on what was actually agreed. Basically we should expect both sides to accuse the other of reneging - and in turn, the great rivalry will just fester on.

In Malaysia, their inflation came in at 1.9% in April , at the low end of their expected level and only a modest rise from March. It was their most however since July 2024.

In Europe, they posted a smaller trade surplus than expected as exports underwhelmed in March and imports rose. It was a much lower surplus that they recorded a year earlier.

In Australia, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment survey is picking up a range of recent trends. Sentiment improved marginally despite the fuel shock, but within that more people are downbeat on their economy. The Canberra Budget didn't have a big impact though. Job loss fears are still elevated even if slightly less so. But homebuyer sentiment is down sharply to deeply pessimistic levels. And consumer house price expectations have softened even if they are still positive. A key thing to watch across the ditch is the widening sentiment gap between young and old. The ‘baby boomer’ and ‘Generation X’ cohorts are extremely weak (angry). Sentiment amongst ‘Millennials’ is only modestly pessimistic. But ‘Generation Z’ is outright positive they note.

Rich people whingeing over losing their tax advantages in the latest Australian Federal Budget is becoming a feature of public discourse there, especially in the real estate sector.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.67%, up +8 bps from this time yesterday. 

The price of gold will start today down -US$47 at US$4500/oz. Silver is down -US$2 at just over US$74.50/oz.

American oil prices have fallen -US$3.50 to just on US$103.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just over US$110/bbl, down only -50 USc.

The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are also up +10 bps at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.9 which is down -30 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$76,771 and up just +0.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.9%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news there has been no improvement in the backdrop to the global economy.

To open the new week, oil prices have risen after Trump warned that Tehran is running out of time to reach a deal he likes, while Iranian media reports indicated the two sides remain far apart in negotiations. Shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, keeping supplies tight.

In the US, the NY Fed's regional Business Leaders Survey shows that the service sector there is continuing to contract, but now at a lesser pace. Activity has been contracting there since late 2024. Inflationary pressures remained persistent, with firms reporting steep increases in input costs and still-elevated selling prices.

Staying tin the US, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which measures builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes, rose in May from April (which was its lowest level since September 2025). They too complain about sharply elevated input costs.

And we should probably note that Elon Musk has lost his case against Sam Altman and OpenAI to claim the company. The jury quickly decided Must had no case.

In China, new home prices across the 70 cities they reference shrank -3.5% in April from a year earlier, following a -3.4% decline in the previous month. This is the 34th consecutive month of contraction. It is also the sharpest contraction pace since May 2025. The weakness in their property sector goes on and on. The pace of decline in their existing home market is even faster.

Four a fourth month, China's electricity production fell from the previous month. But it was +2.6% higher than the same month a year ago. This is a good reference point to assess their industrial production, which they said rose +4.1% in April from a year ago. But that was the slowest they have reported for an April since 2022. Fixed asset investment fell -1.8% in April on that same basis.

At the same time, they said retail sales fell -0.5% in April after a -0.1% decline in March.

Chinese banks now have an average net interest margin of 1.4%, according to the latest data as at March 2026. That is news because it is a record low. (For perspective, the New Zealand industry NIM is 2.3%.)

Singapore said its non-oil exports rose a fast +24.5% in April from a year ago, up sharply from the +15.3% pace in March. This was the eighth consecutive month of growth and the fastest pace in fourteen years, with electronics the growth leader.

In Australia, Cotality reported that 1,939 capital city homes went to auction last week, an -11% drop from the previous week, but still tracking higher than a year ago (+8.7%) when 1,784 home auctions were held. The preliminary clearance rate rose 1.1 percentage points to 57.5%, still a soft result but with highly mixed outcomes across different cities. This was the fifth time in the past seven weeks that the early clearance rate had held below the 60% mark and the third lowest result for the year-to-date. The Aussie Budget signals may have contributed to the mood. 

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.59%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday.

The price of gold will start today up +US$8 at US$4547/oz. Silver is up +US$1 at just over US$76.50/oz.

American oil prices have risen +US$1.50 to just over US$107/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just over US$110.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are also up +30 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.2 which is up +30 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$76,661 and down -1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.6%.

It turns out Trump's investment partners are enabling Iran to access the global financial system and evade US sanctions. Iran’s Nobitex has processed at least US$2.3 billion through Tron and BNB Chain, blockchain ledgers started by backers of the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial. Of course there will be no Justice Department investigation.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news financial market sentiment deteriorated sharply at the end of trading last week as war-driven inflation is being priced in more aggressively, because it will persist longer than earlier assumptions. Markets are shifting to a much more sceptical position on Trump policies & actions given the extended track record of failures.

Higher long rates tend to feed on themselves when stress (like the Iran War) is elevated. And the US Fed is in no position to cut rates; in fact markets are guessing the chances of a hike are rising. These two pressures are pushing rates up.

But first in the week ahead, locally we will be following updated population data this week, producer prices, credit card data, household and business expectations survey results, and retail sales, all for March.

In Australia, the key data coming is for their April labour market, along with a key consumer sentiment survey and a key inflation expectations survey.

Globally, apart from watching what is or isn't going on in the Persian Gulf, we will be tracking how bond markets are reacting to the Trump turmoil, US regional surveys and PMIs, and the UofM sentiment survey update.

From China, there will be a raft of key data updates this coming week. There will be key industrial data out in Japan. And there will be PMI data out for India too. Indonesia’s central bank will announce its latest monetary policy decision late Wednesday night.

Over the weekend, analysts have been able to assess the results from the China-US summit. Those haven't been very positive. And it says a lot that Russian president Putin is in Beijing this week.

Essentially the takeaways from the Beijing summit meetings between Xi and Trump have been underwhelming. It is notable that the Chinese have made no mention of the trade claims by the US, although there will be some. And they will be hoping Trump throws Taiwan under the bus after they stroked his ego.

Meanwhile, the 'negotiations' between the US and Iran seem to have stalled completely. So no resolution to the Strait of Hormuz blockades. Oil prices are settling in, even rising, on fears of a much broader energy crisis. It has now been two months since Trump said the US would provide transit insurance for the Strait of Hormuz crossing. So far it has done no deals; zero.

In the US, April industrial production jumped +0.7% from March to be +1.4% higher than year ago levels, and much more than expected. But it is all "business equipment" (read: AI data centers). This will be 'good' if it generates lasting increased productivity, but the rest of their factory sector is going backwards, even with 'tariff protections'. Consumer goods manufacturing shrank in April (-0.2%) from a year ago, construction stalled in April.

In the New York region, there is a scramble to stockpile ahead for fast-rising cost increases. Business activity grew strongly there in May. US stockpiling may end up giving their Q2-2025 economic activity data an unexpected boost for the quarter.

In Canada, housing starts jumped an impressive +17% in April from March to an annualised 279,300 units in April from the previous month, well above market forecasts of 240,000 units. But it is just back to year-ago levels (281,800).

In Japan, machine tool orders surged +45% in April from a year ago, far exceeding market expectations. It maintains the much higher level it reached in March which was an all-time record, and by quite a margin. Both domestic and foreign orders leapt the at the same pace.

Japan’s producer prices rose +4.9% in April from a year ago, a surge from an upwardly revised +2.9% increase in March. That is an all-time high in a record that stretches back to 1960. Markets had expected a +3% rise. The usual suspects were the cause.

Indian exports rose sharply in April, and were near their record high levels in March 2022. They had very good increases in both goods and service exports. Imports rose fast too, probably related to the rising cost of oil. Overall, their trade deficit shrank slightly in the month.

The Russian economy is contracting, again. It is giving all the signs it is exhausted by its war on Ukraine, and this is despite its higher oil revenues. Manpower is a serious and probably unsolvable issue now that they have suffered excessive battlefield deaths.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.60%, unchanged from this time Saturday. For the week this is a +24 bps jump, one of the largest one-day jumps for quite some time.

The price of gold will start today down -US$15 at US$4539/oz and down -US$184 for the week. Silver is down -US$1.50 at just over US$75.50/oz, down -US$5 for the week.

American oil prices have stayed up at just over US$105.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -50 USc at just over US$109/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$99.50/bbl and US$101/bbl respectively.

The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from Saturday at this time at 58.4 USc, down -120 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 81.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just under 50.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under  61.9 which is unchanged from yesterday, down -90 bps for the week to its lowest since early April..

The bitcoin price starts today at US$78,024 and down -1.5% from this time Saturday, down -4.2% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.6%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the US-China summit in Beijing is underway and so far, the results have been underwhelming. Xi warned Trump about US support for Taiwan, and a big jet order for Boeing wasn't quite what was expected, causing Boeing's share price to fall today (-3.6%). The travelling CEO's seem to be impressed with China's opportunities, rather than Trump getting China to invest in the US. But it is only day one, so more may come of this visit.

In the US data out overnight shows there were 190,600 initial jobless claims last week, less than seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.7 mln people on these benefits, less than a year ago and about the same as two years ago. Given how this is tracking so different to the US household labour force survey, part of the jobless claims easing can be attributed to tougher qualification standards.

US retail sales rose marginally in April from March to be +4.5% higher than year ago levels. Higher dollar sales at petrol stations were a key factor. The timing of one-off tax refunds probably played a part too. This is a gain that is higher than the 3.8% US CPI.

Business inventories rose as well (the data is for March). Retail inventories did too. But both are up less than the sales gains, so the inventory to sales ratio is improving.

In China, banks haven't been lending at the rate expected. New yuan loans by Chinese banks fell by a net -¥10 bln in April, and much less than the expected +¥300 bln, and less than the +¥285 bln in April 2025. This is quite an unexpectedly variation and turn down in momentum, and only the third time on record this has happened. One reason is that there is a shift to corporate bond financing, away from bank financing.

In Australia, their competition regulator has prevailed in a case it brough against supermarket giant Coles claiming its discount claims were a sham. This judgement is sure to echo in New Zealand. The ACCC has a parallel case pending judgement against Woolworths.

Meanwhile the peak Australian labour union, the ACTU, has amended its claim for a minimum wage rise to +6% before the Fair Work Commission, taking the claimed rate to AU$26.45/hour (NZ$32.25). Obviously, the change is in response to rising inflation.

Global container freight rates were up +12% last week to be +14% higher than year-ago levels. Surcharging for fuel is the key reason for the rises although this is also the time the northern hemisphere "peak season surcharges (PSS) start to be applied. Bulk cargo rates shifted higher again last week as well, up +5.4% and are now at levels we had during the pandemic stresses

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.46%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday.

The price of gold will start today down -US$12 at US$4678/oz. Silver is down -US$3 at just under US$85/oz.

American oil prices are holding up at just over US$101.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$106/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from yesterday at this time at 59.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 81.9 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just under 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62.5 which is down -10 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$81,564 and up +2.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.1%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news commodity markets are signaling more intense stress with copper and sulphur jumping to new all-time highs and aluminium jumping to near its brief pandemic spike. Tightening supply from the Middle-East standoff is driving the cost of these fundamentals up.

Today, Trump is in Beijing where heavily choreographed set pieces are play out ahead of the formal discussions. Trump got welcomed by a non-Politburo member, the first time China has done that. So far he is being treated just like any other visiting head of state, rather than the special senior welcomes by his predecessors.

And China is organising one of its tankers to exit the Strait of Hormuz in defiance of the US blockade, right at the time these meetings take place.

US mortgage applications were little-changed last week, but with this week's push higher in benchmark interest rates, they are likely to fall when reported next week.

American producer prices were up +6.0% in April from a year ago, getting a +1.4% shove in April from March. Distorted input costs from Trumps Gulf War are embedding uncompetitive pricing in American-made goods. Only the pandemic surge has been greater (also on Trump's watch.) It isn't clear right now why American producer prices are rising faster than just about everywhere else, but history will eventually explain that.

US crude oil stocks took another outsized tumble last week according to official EIA monitoring. Petrol stocks there fell sharply too. (These sharp drops are confirmed by industry data too.) The industry is raking in record profits on these lower volumes. Why the US, a net petroleum producer, is feeling the brunt of these price hikes is a classic study in oligopoly power. (And see this investigation.)

Meanwhile, UST 30yr bond yields have risen above 5% on secondary markets. Apart from the pandemic spike, this is the first time they have done so since 2007, so a two decade high. The overnight US Treasury 30 year bond auction delivered a medium yield of 4.99% (top bid 5.05%), up from 4.82% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.

And we should note that Kevin Warsh is now the Fed Chairman. But ex-boss Powell is still there. Given the Trump-induced inflation surge, he is unlikely to be able to deliver on Trump's demand for lower US interest rates.

In Canada, their central bank says they see no evidence that AI is having a material impact on their jobs market - yet, anyway. For them, the benefits are outweighing the costs.

EU industrial production rose in March from February, but that wasn't enough to counter the outlier faster rise a year ago, so it ended down -1.0% year-on-year. An outsized fall in Germany twisted these results.

In its May monthly report, OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026, joining other forecasters such as the IEA in cutting expectations due to the Iran war.

In Australia, the wealthy are reeling after their latest Budget signaled a levelling of the tax playing field and the wind-down of concessions for wealth. To be fair, these are to be unwound over many years, but the big end of town is furious they are losing their perks. Certainly, those dependent on the property market can see an end to the gravy train.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.47%, unchanged from this time yesterday.

The price of gold will start today up +US$12 at US$4690/oz. Silver is up +US$3 at just over US$88/oz.

American oil prices are holding up at just over US$101.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is at just over US$106/bbl, which is down -US$1.50.

The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from yesterday at this time at 59.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -60 bps at 81.7 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just under 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62.6 which is down -10 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$79,447 and down -1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.7%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news oil prices are still rising as the two sides dig in in the Persian Gulf with no obvious off-ramp for this toxic situation.

And hot on the heels of what is being seen as this humiliation of the US in the Middle East, Trump is heading to Beijing where the Chinese are waiting to attempt to get the US separated from Taiwan. Their chances seem better because China seems much less reliant on the inward-looking US.

But first, the overnight dairy Pulse auction brought little-change in prices from last week's full auction event.

In the US, their April CPI inflation rose slightly more than expected, coming in 3.8% higher than year-ago levels and a three year high. Trump's war pushed fuel costs up (+17.9%). But it is pushing non-fuel costs up too with core inflation its highest in 7 months. Electricity prices are up +6.1%. (Remember, this data is from the Trump-friendly 'new management', so we should remain sceptical.)

The weekly ADP Pulse monitoring reports that the private sector added +33,000 jobs in the last week of April, keeping up the page it has reported for the prior five weeks.

An new monitoring shows it is not a good time to be young in the US.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was little-changed in April and near its 11-month low of 95.8. Analysts had expected a small improvement, but it was not to be with survey respondents concerned about rising inflation, and affordability stress on their customers.

Overall US household debt was basically steady in Q1-2026 according to the latest update.

But their Federal Government debt is increasing in cost and at a faster face. The overnight auction for their ten-year bonds came in at 4.41% median yield, up from 4.23% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.

The May USDA WASDE report exposes the risks to American agriculture from creeping changes to their climate. They now concede that the US wheat crop will be sharply lower this coming season. Reductions from the EU, Argentina, and Australia are being forecast too. Corn production is likely to be lower too, although that is off this year's record harvests.

All this pressure probably means there will be no US Fed rate cuts for the foreseeable future. If there are any movements, rises are the more likely.

Across the Pacific, Japanese household spending turned worryingly lower in March as inflation started to bite and their households turned risk-averse. They are saving more. Household spending there fell -2.9% in March, much more than the -1.8% drop in February and below the expected -1.3% retreat. This is the fourth straight decrease and the largest.

India's CPI inflation rate inched up to 3.5% in April from March's 3.4%, not the big rise (to 3.8%) that was anticipated by market watchers.

In Germany, their ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment was expected to get more negative in May that in April, but in fact it got less negative, which was a market surprise. Economic expectations are brightening, they say.

In Australia, they released a fairly ambitious Budget overnight, doing more needed reform than anticipated. But it is still a budget in deficit, even if less so. With some unusual bravery, they are tackling stubborn policy areas and will no doubt have to use some political capital to do so. Redistribution pain will bring howls from the usual suspects at the top end of the wealth spectrum. They have been aided by stronger than expected starting point from tax flows from commodities and corporate good health. Here is one less-partisan analysis.

But accelerating cost pressures are squeezing margins and demand is cooling, with the latest NAB Monthly Business Survey signaling a tougher operating environment for Australian businesses. This April survey shows purchase cost growth lifted sharply to +4.5% in April, outpacing product price growth at +1.8%. Business conditions fell while confidence marginally but it is still deeply negative (in fact, its worst since the pandemic). Those surveyed reported that forward orders fell further in April to be down sharply since February and giving up all the gradual gains achieved over the past year. Only mining orders rose and to be fair these were outsized gains in that sector. (Later today, we expect to get the Westpac consumer sentiment survey results.)

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.47%, up another +6 bps from this time yesterday.

The price of gold will start today down -US$44 at US$4678/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at just under US$85/oz.

American oil prices are up another +US$3 at just over US$101.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is at just over US$107.50/bbl, also up +US$3.

The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from yesterday at this time at 59.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just under 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62.7 which is down -20 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$80,465 and down -1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.5%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the Iranians seem to be sucking Trump into a place he can't extract himself from, far from his earlier claims of 'total victory'.

First up today, US existing come sales came in at a modest level again in April, and undershot what analysts were expecting. High mortgage interest rates are probably the reason for the soft demand. Still, they did sell at an annualised rate of just on 4 mln dwellings which is enough to sustain the sector. Unsold inventory is rising however, now at 16 weeks sales, and has been rising for all of 2026 and is now at 1.35 mln units.

There was another US Treasury bond auction earlier today, and it was notable that demand is flagging, down -5% from the prior event. This time this 3 year bond achieved a median yield of 3.92%, up from 3.85% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.

Inflation's impact in the US has officials scrambling. US petrol taxes are said to be on the radar for cutbacks. And the high cost of beef is pushing the US to sharply cut tariffs and quotas on imported beef. Both are effective acknowledgements that tariffs are hurting Americans more than their trading partners. However, given current demand and supply situations, it seems neither move will likely result in lower prices for US consumers.

In Canada, their central bank runs a 'market participants survey' quarterly, and in the latest of these professionals now see geopolitical tensions more of a threat to their economy that the trade tensions with the US. They also saw only a modest +1.6% economic expansion this year.

China's inflation is rising, noticeably now. Today they said their April CPI came in up +1.2% from a year ago, with fuel costs up +4.6% on that year-ago basis. But in April from March, fuel costs rose +3.5% in just one month. Things are hotter for producer costs which were up +3.5% year-on-year, and up +2.1% month-on-month. These are big sifts because it has been negative since October 2022.

China's vehicle sales came in a 2.525 mln in April, about average aver the past three years, but marginally lower than year-ago levels which was an outsized period.

On the commodities front, copper shot up to a record high today, and aluminium, nickel and zinc are also rising at the same time. Sulphur, a key ingredient for all mining and processing activity has shot up to a record high again, and approaching three times its cost of a year ago, up double from the start of Trump's Gulf War. Urea, which also spiked to mid April, has come back quite a bit since then.

Trump is on his way to Beijing for a summit with Xi, but he is going is quite a weakened state - but he probably doesn't realise it.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.41%, up +5 bps from this time yesterday.

The price of gold will start today up +US$8 at US$4722/oz. Silver is up +US$5 at just under US$85.50/oz.

American oil prices are up +US$3 at just under US$98.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is holding at just over US$104.50/bbl, up +US$3.50.

The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday, at this time at 59.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 82.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.9 which is little-changed from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$81,983 and up +0.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.4%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news that the Strait of Hormuz is still essentially shut with Trump's war on Iran far from resolved. The claims of 'ceasefires' merely propaganda exercises. Rolling skirmishes mean no shipping can get insurance, despite offers of safe passage. No-one respects anyone in a region where trust has evaporated.

Locally this week, the big data insights will come from the RBNZ's survey of inflation expectations on Wednesday, migration and travel activity data on Thursday, and a first look at inflation on Friday via Stats NZ's selected price tracking. We will also get the factory PMI on Friday.

In Australia, the key events will be the Federal Budget on Tuesday preceded by the Commbank profit result. There will also be consumer and business sentiment surveys out this week.

In the US, it will be all about their April CPI and PPI, along with updates for retail sales and industrial production

In India, they will also release CPI data. From Japan look out for household spending and PPI data too, and machine tool order updates.

In China, we are expecting April updates for CPI, PPI and new yuan loan data.

Over the weekend, China released its April export data and it was strong. While the US is turning inward, China is seizing the opportunities of their mistake. China’s exports rose +14% in April to a record high, picking up from March's +2.5% growth despite the disruptions from the Trump Gulf War. And China's imports surged +25% on the same year-on-year basis, a second straight monthly record and confirming resilient domestic demand. It is all very impressive.

China's exports to us were up only +3.8% from a year ago, but their imports from us were up +14.5.

China's exports to Australia were up +36% and their imports were up +20%, but that still left Australia with a very large surplus with China.

China's exports to the US were down -10.4%, and their imports down a similar -10.2%. They seem to have reduced their reliance on goods from the US to now just 9.8% of their total imports. No wonder US exports are faltering.

Over the weekend, the official data from the US showed they added +115,000 payroll jobs in April at the headline level, above expectations of a +62,000 gain and following a +185,000 increase in March. It was the first back-to-back monthly gain in nearly a year, and on an 'actual' payroll basis it was stronger again. Their jobless rate was stable at 4.3%.

But we should remember that all this data comes from an agency where Trump fired its head because he didn't like the results and this latest data is under the 'new management'. An independent professional review has confirmed there are distortions growing from this agency.

Employment rose in health care, logistics, and in the retail trade while it fell in the manufacturing and government sectors.

But if you include those not in payroll employment (self-employed etc.) there was no change on an 'actual' basis, a fall of -226,000 on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Their underclass is really struggling.

And you can see that in the latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for May which fell again and to a record low. The fall from April wasn't large, coming in a scant 1.6 index points below April’s reading but it was comparable to the pandemic trough reached in June 2022. Year-ahead inflation expectations are for 4.5%, a touch less than in April.

In Canada, their employment fell -18,000 in April, but more people entered their job market, raising their jobless rate to 6.9%.

In India, banks are lending freely, with loan growth up +16% from a year ago. For all its growth narrative, India's stock exchanges are reporting serious 2026 declines, unlike most other global markets.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.36%, unchanged from this time Saturday, down -2 bps for the week. 

The price of gold will start today down -US$9 at US$4714/oz, up +US$114 for the week. Silver is little-changed at just under US$80.50/oz, up +US$4.50 for the week.

American oil prices are little-changed at just under US$95.50/bbl, down -US$7 for the week, while the international Brent price is holding at just over US$101/bbl, down -US$7.50 for the week.

The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from Saturday, at this time at 59.7 USc, up +70 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at just on 50.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.9 which is up +10 bps from Saturday but up +40 bps for the week.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$81,392 and up +1.6% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low however at just under +/- 0.6%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news American households are struggling as inflation pressures consume their reserves.

In the US there were 181,000 new initial jobless claims last week, about what seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.735 mln people on these benefits, lower than at this time last year, but still above two year-ago levels.

And there were 83,000 reported job cuts in April, a bit above the average over the past year. For a second month in a row, AI is the key reason for shedding jobs now.

Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations in the US rose in April and for a second month to 3.6% in April which is their highest since October 2023. Inflation uncertainty also increased at the one-year-ahead horizon. Income expectations are up less than 3%, so on average most people there expect inflation will set them back from where they are.

US consumer debt jumped in March by much more than expected, driven by a +9.1% surge in credit card debt. The big end of town is noticing. Executives across retail, restaurants and packaged goods are increasingly worried about American shoppers with tighter budgets amid surging fuel prices caused by Trump's Gulf War. “They’re literally running out of money at the end of the month,” one said.

Across the Pacific, China's FX reserves jumped in April to just over US$3.4 tin after the unexpected March dip, and back up in its rising trend. This is their largest gain in 28 months. But it is still off its US$4 tln level in mid 2014. Gold holdings increased again by another +8 tonnes.

The central bank of Malaysia reviewed its monetary policy late yesterday and kept its official rate unchanged at 2.75%.

And Malaysian discount airline AirAsia said it has ordered 150 Airbus aircraft worth US$19 bln, and said it has an option to order another 150 from Airbus. Orders like this are being driven by the need for fuel efficiency.

The central bank of Norway unexpectedly raised its policy rate by +25 bps to 4.25% at its overnight meeting, defying market expectations for no change. They said inflation remains too high at 3.6% and is likely to stay elevated and action is needed now to keep it closer to its 2% target.

In the EU, the volume of retail sales fell in March from February to be up just 1.9% from year ago levels. The lower volume of fuel sales was the key reason driving the recent reversal. Non-food, non-fuel activity was actually up an impressive +3.0% for the year.

In Germany they posted an impressive factory order intake for March, up +6.3% from the same month a year ago and resuming the upward trend they have had since August 2025.

Australia said its exports fell -2.7% in March from February as rural exports plunged -11.6%. Also, non-monetary gold exports dropped -6.1%. That makes its March merchandise exports -2.2% lower than year-ago levels. Meanwhile, imports rose +14%. That means they recorded a -AU$1.8 bln trade deficit for the month, far larger than the expected +$4.2 bln surplus and the first monthly deficit since 2017. The import surge of "ADP equipment" totaling $4.8 bln in March (likely for data centers), is a key reason.

Meanwhile, the Aussie government has imposed punitive tariffs of up to 82% on Chinese coil steel exports in a major effort to shield local manufacturers from low-cost competition from China that receive 'unfair' Chinese government subsidies.

Global container freight rates rose +3% last week to be +10% higher than year-ago levels. Outbound China rates are rising again. Bulk cargo rates were up +11.5% over the past week to be +112% higher than year-ago levels.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.40%, up +5 bps from this time yesterday.

The price of gold will start today up +US$17 at US$4697/oz. Silver is up +US$2.50 at just over US$79.50/oz.

American oil prices are up +50 USc at just on US$96/bbl, while the international Brent price is little-changed at US$101.50/bbl.

Oil company Shell announced quarterly earnings overnight, more than doubling them to US$6.9 bln in the three months to March, from Q4-2025's US$3.2 bln. Clearly more than 'cost increases' are being passed on at the pump.

The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday at this time at 59.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at just on 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.8 which is unchanged from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$79,843 and down -1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.4%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news oil prices have tumbled as the US seems to give up on most of its stated objectives, including the promise of safe-passage for shipping, in a u-turn to extract itself from a losing hand. Crude oil prices are down more than -10% on the news, although it needs to be noted that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. It is just market euphoria. We now need to start worrying about a permanent Iranian transit tax after the US walks away. The Gulf States who supported the US are about to be thrown under the bus. Financial markets don't care of course and like the end of the adventure.

US mortgage applications fell again last week as interest rates rise, both for refinance activity and new home purchases. This takes this activity back to September 2024 levels.

The US ADP employment report said their private labour market added +109,000 jobs in April, marginally more than the +99,000 expected. This sets the official non-farm payrolls report up for an expected +60,000 rise, with upside. Most of the new jobs are coming from aggressive hiring in their healthcare sector.

After the prior week's outsized fall, this week the EIA reports another notable fall in US crude oil stocks. In fact, every metric fell other than US crude oil imports. There is certainly no relief at US petrol pumps yet, with prices now up more than +50% from their pre-Trump Gulf War levels.

We have earlier noted the politicalisation of US official data, especially of the Bureau of Labor Statistics who produce CPI, PPI and labour market data. We weren't the only ones. A new analytical report has been looking at how this has affected the quality of their data and concluded there is a worrying impact from this trend. So we need to be sceptical, and the next of their big set piece reports is the April non-farm payrolls. This means we will need to rely more on other non-Trump Administration high frequency market data.

In Canada, their widely-watched Ivey PMI surged into a strong expansion in April and by more than expected.

In China, new analysis shows Chinese companies are reporting lackluster earnings, with overall net profit declining in 2025 for the third consecutive year as the property slump dragged on and more retailers posted losses, hurting employment and the economy as a whole.

Meanwhile, China's Golden Week holiday has just ended, and reports are that there was less air travel this year - but very much more high-speed rail travel. Overall domestic holiday activity was up +3.5% with air travel falling -5.7% year-on-year to 10.5 million passengers between May 1 and May 5, railway journeys up +4.6% to 1.06 billion.

And staying in China, their non-official S&P Global services PMI reports that their services sector expanded faster as new business picked up in April and the year-ahead outlook improved. Cost pressures remained modest from this giant sector.

In India, their services sector saw new orders and output expand at a quicker pace supporting hiring activity. They also reported a mild reduction in inflationary pressures.

(Things aren't so good in the Russian services sector.)

In the EU, they report rising cost pressure for producers, all related to higher fuel prices. Overall they are up +2.0% in April from a year ago, but up +3.2% from March. There is quite a wide range of impacts depending on the country.

Internationally, a new report tallying global debt found it at US$353 tln, and a strong shift away from US treasuries and toward big new demand for Japanese and European government bonds. They also found the overall debt:GDP ratio remained stable.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.35%, down -7 bps from this time yesterday.

The price of gold will start today up +US$121 at US$4680/oz. Silver is up +US$4 at just over US$77/oz.

American oil prices are down -US$6.50 at just on US$95.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$8.50 and now at US$101.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is up +60 bps from yesterday at this time at 59.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at just on 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.8 which is up +50 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$81,399 and up +0.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.3%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news that although the US claims the ceasefire with Iran is holding and "ships are lining up to transit", in fact, very little is moving in the area between Iran's red lines. And the most high profile transit in the past 24 hours was an Iranian tanker. Still, the US claims resonated on Wall Street, and stocks rose, benchmark rates fell.

But first today, there was another full dairy auction earlier today, a small one where volumes offered and sold were the least in fifteen years, since mid 2011. But prices were up +1.5% in USD, up +1.6% in NZD. Butter prices continued to slide, but there were good gains for SMP, WMP and mozzarella. These gains end two consecutive full events where prices fell.

US job openings fell, although to be fair, but less than expected. But even then, they are back at levels they had in April 2018, which is less than it seems because their labour force is so much larger now.

There were two services PMI reports out for the US overnight (ISM and S&P Global) and both showed that new business intakes fell for first time in two years as war in the Middle East and inflation hit demand. But both were positive even if less so that in the prior two months

The reason for the retreat cam be found in the latest April logistics managers report, where freight costs leapt, taking this index back to pandemic-stress levels.

The US RCM/TIPP economic optimism index fell yet again, down to levels last seen in early 2024. It has retreated steadily since December 2024. It's sponsor's report called it 'steady' but that is gilding it somewhat.

US exports and imports were little-changed in April, but both are in rising trends even if imports rose slightly more than exports (which rose largely on petroleum exports). Their trade deficit was widened.

Canada also reported export data and that came in at a one year high, and unexpectedly good result, largely on the back of high exports of petroleum and gold. Imports fell back in April but from an unusually high March level. The result was a good trade surplus, their first since September 2025.

Singapore reported March retail sales late yesterday and they were better than expected with a good +4.8% rise from a year ago. That represents a real gain because their CPI inflation was 1.8% in March.

As widely anticipated, the RBA raised its cash rate target by +25 bps to 4.35% late yesterday. It was a split decision with one voting member wanting to hold the rate unchanged. But they face sharply higher inflation threats that seem to be growing and prior rate hikes have done little to quell those. However they have restrained their housing market enthusiasm and this latest hike is expected to put the brakes on that further. Traders still believe there is at least one more rate increase this year despite the RBA saying their policy was still only mildly restrictive.

This comes after the March CPI rose +4.6%, and yesterday they reported that household spending remained high over the year in nominal terms, up +6.3% compared to March 2025 (and the highest since January 2023). Most of this is 'price' and much of it relates to a +32.8% increase in monthly fuel prices. But in volume terms, they say fuel purchases are lower, down -1.3% in March from February.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.42%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday. 

The price of gold will start today up +US$37 at US$4559/oz. Silver is unchanged at just over US$73/oz.

American oil prices are down -US$3 at just on US$102/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$3.50 and now at US$110/bbl. It is hard to see these prices easing further given the sharp fall in global oil reserves recently. Even the future process of building them back will add to demand and prices.

The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.3 which is up +20 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$81,300 and up +0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.3%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news conflict in the Persian Gulf has erupted again with attacks on US naval forces trying to open the waterway for US flagged vessels. Iran also hit the UAE. Iran also warned that it will tighten its control over the Strait. So far there have been 28 attacks and 6 near-misses.

The oil price has risen, equities have fallen, and benchmark interest rates rose.

How China reacts will be important now. So far they are bolstering their support of Tehran via trade and payments support, and banning their companies from respecting the US sanctions threats.

In the US, factory orders rose in March and by more than expected as the stockpiling trend got started. They are now almost +3.7% higher on a nominal basis than a year ago. This data matches the recent factory PMI data we have reported earlier.

US April vehicle sales came it at an annualised 15.9 mln rate, slightly less than for March and less than expected. This was down -7.2% from April 2025, but holding at about the post-pandemic average which in turn is about -10% lower than pre-pandemic levels.

The US Fed loan officers survey may have disappointed some observers. Earlier in the year, indications were for rising demand. But the results of the April survey found little-change. At least it didn't find softer demand.

In Canada, they have announced a $C1 bln support program for manufacturers hit by the swinging Trump tariffs on their steel products, a sector hit particularly hard. Another C$500 mln in regional support was announced at the same time.

In South Korea, we got another very good factory PMI for April. The S&P Global version rose to 53.6 in April from 52.6 in March, the strongest expansion since February 2022. But the scramble for more orders, and production is to get ahead of incoming inflation pressure. In fact, input costs and output price inflation surged to its highest in the 22-year history of this monitoring.

In Taiwan, the same scramble is underway, with production and sales rising sharply as firms look to stockpile. That drove their factory PMI to new momentum and a five year high.

In Europe, the ECB also released a survey of bank forecasters. They found there were expectations for higher inflation in the near term, but unchanged further out. These analysts have downgraded their 2026 and 2027 growth expectations, but left longer forecasts unchanged.

In Australia, the Melbourne Institute's Inflation Gauge tracking reported a +0.6% rise from March to be 4.3% higher than a year ago. The April result was lower than the record high monthly increase at +1.3% in March, and compares with the official March monthly annual rise of 4.6%. Despite the easing, this rate remains very high and likely well above what the RBA will be comfortable with. The RBA is widely expected to raise its policy rate +25 bps to 4.35% later today, although in the past 24 hours, the market conviction has wavered.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.44%, up +6 bps from this time yesterday. 

The price of gold will start today down -US$92 at US$4522/oz. Silver is down -US$2 at just under US$73/oz..

American oil prices are up +US$3 at just on US$105/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$5.50 and now at US$113.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are holding at 81.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.1 which is down -20 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$80,587 and up +2.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.6%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news it has now been 66 days since the Strait of Hormuz has been largely shut and the two combatants seem to have descended into stalemate (although the Iranian's seem to have attacked one cargo ship overnight, let others through). The result has been much higher fuel prices, fertiliser prices, and a settling in of inflationary pressure everywhere. These pressures are intense.

This week will start out locally with the Barfoot results for April (today), followed by the March quarter jobs report (on Wednesday). The RBNZ will be reviewing financial stability on Wednesday as well.

In Australia, it will be all about the Tuesday afternoon decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia, where a +25 bps hike seems likely (but is not certain). But inflation risks tied to the Iran conflict are building and they risk getting embedded. Also due out this week is data for building consents, job ads, household spending, and trade data.

Trade data is also due from Taiwan and PMIs will come for many countries. Sweden and Norway will be reviewing their monetary policy settings this week too.

American financial markets will be eyeing their labour market data, with their non-farm, payrolls report coming at the end of the week. There will also be important updates for their services sector, plus the preliminary May sentiment survey from the University of Michigan, also at the end of the week.

At the end of last week, there were two factory PMI surveys out for the US and both were positive. The ISM reported a modest expansion, unchanged from a month ago. But they also reported a rise in new orders even though export orders fell. And employment fell, and rather sharply. Prices rose sharply and at their fastest pace since the pandemic.

The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was even more positive, but they said it was driven by stockpiling amid rising prices and supply disruptions. New orders increased at the fastest pace in four years, despite an eleventh consecutive monthly decline in exports. On the price front, input cost inflation reached a ten-month high.

If stockpiling and inventory builds are behind this American rise, while they lose global market share, this is not very sustainable.

Stock building seems to be behind a sharp rise in Canadian factory activity too. Their PMI showed production, employment and purchasing all increased in April. But theirs also featured new export orders which rose solidly and at the fastest rate since the start of 2022.

Across the Pacific, Japanese factories are reporting their fastest expansion in twelve years. It is no doubt welcome, but they are now having capacity problems affecting supply-chain performance. This April production data supports earlier official industrial production reports for March.

And the Japanese yen strengthened suddenly and sharply on Friday, ending a long period of devaluation against the USD. The shift is likely due to Bank of Japan intervention which seems to have cost the US$35 bln to pull off.

In China, China Southern Airlines has ordered 137 aircraft from Airbus said to be worth US$28 bln. This comes after China Eastern Airlines ordered 101 Airbus aircraft worth US$16 bln a month ago. It appears that China won't be offering Trump aircraft orders when Xi and he meets on May 14 in Beijing.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.38%, unchanged from this time Friday but up +7 bps for the week. 

The price of gold will start today down -US$7 at US$4613/oz and down -US$103/oz for the week. Silver is down -US$1 at just on US$75/oz.

American oil prices are down -50 USc at just on US$102/bbl, while the international Brent price is also down -50 USc, and now at US$108/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$94/bbl and US$105/bbl so the really big move up was in the US.

The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from Saturday at this time at 59 USc, up +20 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are holding at 81.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.3 which is essentially unchanged from Saturday and up +10 bps from this time last week.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$78,723 and up +0.3% from this time Saturday. It is up only +1.1% from a week ago however. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.7%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news investors are ignoring big (geopolitical) risks by taking even bigger new tech risks.

On Wall Street, tech firms are reporting a profit gusher. Google (+81% rise in profits), Amazon (+56%) and Microsoft (+24%) delivered bonanza profit results yesterday, crediting AI for these outsized results. Meta was up too (+61%), but held back by a misfiring AI strategy that will require huge new investment. The positive results will likely boost valuations ever higher. In fact, Big Tech has committed to US$750 bln in new spending in the sector.

And this impulse is a big part of driving US economic activity which expanded +2% in Q1-2026 in their initial estimate, up from a modest +0.5% gain in Q4-2025 (which was revised lower at each subsequent update). However the current result was below market expectations of +2.3% growth. The outcome was driven primarily by AI investment, but also exports, and both consumer and government spending.

But their PCE inflation was reported for March at its highest in more than two years at 3.5%, with +0.7% of that coming in March alone, the steepest monthly increase since the pandemic distortions. Almost certainly April will have been higher, and probably by some margin.

Personal income, before adjusting for inflation, rose +4.2% while personal spending rose +5.4%. No wonder most Americans don't feel like they are making economic progress - although Big Tech won't feel the same way.

US initial jobless claims came in at 180,000 last week, a decrease and by more than seasonal factors would have indicated.

But although it was expected to continue to expand, in fact the Chicago PMI slipped into contraction in April. This unexpected shift was driven by a drop in new orders and a sharper than expected rise in input costs.

In Japan, retail sales (+1.7% vs expectations of +0.8% year-on-year) and industrial production data (+2.3% vs +0.4% in February) out yesterday for March were much stronger than any analyst was expecting. But it was only for March, and questions linger about their April data. Still it is better to lead into that with a good prior month.

There were two factory PMI surveys out for China yesterday. The official one has it expanding marginally slower and at a quite modest rate. The unofficial S&P Global version reported a slightly stronger expansion. The official services PMI showed a slightly larger contraction after the surprise tiny March expansion.

In Taiwan, they also reported GDP and it will be no surprise that it was a strong +13.7% growth, well exceeding the expected +11.3% expansion.

The EU said they expect April CPI inflation to come in at 3.0%, up from +2.6% in March and all driven my higher energy costs.

The ECB reviewed its monetary policy settings overnight and left its policy rate unchanged, as expected. (The English central bank did the same.)

In Australia, CoreLogic said its Home Value Index rose by +0.3% in April, slowing from a +0.6% increase in March and this latest level is the weakest growth in nearly a year. But values are now falling in the nation’s two largest property markets and they are easing in every other capital city. The prospect of another rate hike next Tuesday isn't helping.

Global container freight rates were little-changed last week from the prior one, and are now +6% higher than year-ago levels. There were few notable regional route changes. And bulk freight rates also held unchanged over the past week although at a high level. From a year ago these rates are up +90% however.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.39%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday. 

The price of gold will start today up +US$72 at US$4616/oz. Silver is up +US$3 at just under US$74/oz.

American oil prices are down -US$3 at just on US$103.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$9.50, and now at US$109/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is back up +50 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.2 which is up +30 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$76,167 and up +0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.2%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news financial markets are starting to see the international geopolitical risks as something that can undermine their bull run. The oil price rises caused by Trump's Gulf War are messing with the outlook in a much more visible way today.

But first, in the widely expected result, the US Federal Reserve held its benchmark policy rates unchanged at 3.75%, in a 8-1 vote with only Trump's insert wanting a lower rate. Three other members abstained, not supporting language that wanted to lower the easing bias included in the Statement. This is likely the last meeting Powell will lead, although he said he will stay on as a Governor "for a period of time". His term officially ends in January 2028.

Benchmark yields rose, the USD rose, and stocks fell on the news.

US mortgage applications fell -1.6% last week even though benchmark interest rates hardly shifted. The fall affected both refi activity and new home purchases.

US durable goods orders rose +0.8% in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, to be +2.8% ahead of year ago levels. But with US producer prices up +4.0% in the same period, this isn't a 'real' increase.

But there was a big jump in US housing starts in March, up to just over a 1.5 mln annual rate and up more than +10% from February -  and to its highest level since December 2024.

The US trade deficit rose +5.3% in March from February to -US$88 bln for the month, about the level expected.

And US authorities reported that their crude oil stocks dived -6.3 mln bbls last week, and their petrol inventories fell by a similar very large amount. This had a dramatic impact on the WTI crude prices, which jumped

In Canada, their central bank also held its policy rate at 2.25%, also as expected. Some observers saw the review as hawkish, with rate hikes coming sooner than previously expected.

In Singapore, they reported a sudden and very dramatic jump in producer prices for March, up +21.6% from the same month a year ago, with oil-related prices up more that +60% in March from February.

Germany said its April CPI inflation will be +2.9%, all due to higher energy costs.

Global data out for March air travel revealed an overall +2.1% rise, but international travel dropped -0.6% while domestic air travel rose +6.5%. A large part of the reason was the sudden sharp drop in the Middle East (down -60%). Asia Pacific travel rose +11.5% in the month. Australian domestic travel was up +8.8%.

Meanwhile air cargo activity was severely disrupted by the Middle East conflict and Trump's Gulf War in March. It fell -4.8% overall, with international cargo demand down -5.5%. Asia Pacific demand was up a modest +5.5%, but North American air cargoes fell -1.5% and Middle East cargoes fell -55%. April is likely to be much worse.

Most airlines are cutting flight capacity as the fuel price and availability situation worsens sharply. April data will be bad. May likely even worse.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.41%, up +6 bps from this time yesterday.

The price of gold will start today down -US$56 at US$4543/oz. Silver is down -US$2.50 at just over US$71/oz.

American oil prices are up +US$6.50 at just on US$106.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$7.50, and now at US$118.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is down -50 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 81.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.9 which is down -40 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$75,931 and down -0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.5%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news of fractures emerging in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and of OPEC itself.

But first up today there was a dairy Pulse auction, but this one bringing few changes from the prior week's full event. Prices for butter, SMP and WMP were little-changed. But the AMF price did fall -4.4% to its lowest of the year so far.

In Australia, it is worth noting that bond markets are in full bear more. They have driven their AGB benchmark 10 year bond yield to a 15 year high (price to a 15 year low), and these movements are replicated across the whole maturity curve. Expectations are high that the RBA is about to tackle inflation head-on with purposeful monetary policy actions starting next week. And there is spillover to New Zealand benchmark rates too.

In the US, their weekly ADP employment report signaled a third week of good payroll gains in the private sector.

And the Conference Board's survey of consumer sentiment was marginally better than expected in April. Most aspects deteriorated in this latest survey, except the labour market conditions that the ADP signals have licked up.

It was similar for the Richmond Fed's factory survey which was little-changed but with a hint of positiveness. And the Dallas Fed services survey was marginally less negative.

Across the Pacific, the Bank of Japan kept its short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at its April meeting overnight, leaving borrowing costs at their highest level since September 1995. The widely expected decision passed by a 6–3 vote, amid uncertainty over the Iran conflict and surging energy prices. The three dissenters wanted a hike to 1.0%. In its quarterly outlook, the central bank raised its FY2026 core inflation outlook to 2.8% from 1.9%, citing higher crude oil prices that likely push up energy and goods costs. Overall, this review was more hawksih than expected.

Korean manufacturing business sentiment rose in April to its highest since June 2024, with improvements across the board.

India's industrial production is settling in with a growth rate of about 4%, the March level which it has been at (or above) for eight of the past nine months.

In Europe, their has been a very big jump in inflation expectations. Eurozone median inflation expectations for the next 12 months jumped to 4.0% in March in the latest ECB survey, the highest level since October 2023 and up sharply from 2.5% in February. This was the largest monthly increase since early 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted energy markets.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.35%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday.

The price of gold will start today down -US$83 at US$4599/oz. Silver is down -US$2 at just under US$73.50/oz.

American oil prices are up +US$3 at just on US$100/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$2, and now at US$111/bbl.

And the UAE announced overnight that it is quitting OPEC, chafing at the export restrictions the cartel uses to manipulate prices. Some wee this as the beginning of the end of OPEC. We should also probably note that a Japanese supertanker has transited the Strait of Hormuz - with Iran's permission and in defiance of the US blockade.

The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.3 which is down -20 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$76,178 and down -0.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.2%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news oil prices are rising as 'peace talks' stall. And the German Chancellor has said the US is being 'humiliated' by Iran.

In the US, the Dallas Fed factory survey shows activity continued to rise in April but that their new orders index plummeted sharply into contraction territory. Their shipments index fell into negative territory for the first time this year, while perceptions of broader business conditions continued to worsen notably in April.

There were two large US Treasury bond auctions earlier today and while the yields achieved were little different to those at the prior equivalent events a month ago, there was a notable riser in demand. The 2 year bond brought +8.7% more bid value, and the five year +1.8% more. Together that was +US$18 bln more.

Canada has launched a new sovereign wealth fund, seeding it with an initial C$25 bln funding.

We should note that Moody's has upgraded China's A1 credit rating outlook to 'Stable' from 'Negative' from its last change in December 2023.

Despite the Middle East headwinds, China’s industrial profits were +15.5% in Q1-2026 than in the same period in 2025. This maintained the good expansion in January and February. SOE profits rose +10%, local private forms were up +25%, but foreign firms in China hardly managed any increase. A large part of the result has been the huge profits their metals industry is winning, especially for rare earth minerals.

Taiwanese consumer sentiment edged up in April, but only marginally from its very low level. It is still basically at its lowest since January 2023.

In Malaysia, a sharp rise in oil prices in March turned their overall producer price deflation into inflation. It is sure to get sharper in subsequent months.

Meanwhile in Singapore industrial production rose sharply in March, up +10% from the same month a year ago after the very lackluster February result.

In Germany, the GfK Consumer Climate Indicator dropped in May more than expected and to its weakest level since February 2023. Mounting pressure on households from rising energy prices has pushed inflation higher and sentiment lower.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.33%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday. 

The price of gold will start today down -US$28 at US$4681/oz. (If you buy gold, it might just be supporting a criminal supply chain.) Silver is little-changed at just under US$75.50/oz.

American oil prices are up +US$2.50 at just under US$97/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$3.50, and now at US$109/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$84.50/bbl and US$91/bbl respectively, so a big net rise. And we should note that the Russian benchmark (Urals) oil price has eased by -US$1.50 to US$106/bbl

The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from yesterday at this time at 59.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62.5 which is up +30 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$76,753 and down -1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.9%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the breakdown of free passage in the Strait of Hormuz seems to have others considering the possibilities. Even if it isn't a formal idea, an Indonesian minister has wondered out loud about tolling the Malacca Strait.

And there is no indication of progress on re-opening the Strait of Hormuz. It is still a deadly no-go zone with no end in sight. Only bad news from the Persian Gulf.

In the US, actual initial jobless claims fell last week by -9,700 from the prior week. But this was less than the -16,000 seasonal factors would have expected. There are now 1,863,000 people on these benefits, less than the 1,880,000 a year ago but more than the 1,780,000 two years ago.

There was positive news from the US 'flash' PMIs for April. The factory version is expanding faster and is at a four year high. Their services sector is expanding again in a modest way after the March contraction.

But the April factory survey by the Kansas City Fed reported no improvement from the modest expansion in March.

However, the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index was notably lower in its latest update, reporting its biggest drop of the year.

And if you are working for the "Magnificent7" you may struggle to hold on to your job in the face of some severe downsizing. Meta has announced -10% or 8000 job cuts and said its 6000 open positions would be cancelled. And Microsoft is starting to shrink its large workforce by -7%. "AI productivity" is behind these moves.

Canada said its PPI rose sharply in March, up +7.8% from the same month in 2025, driven by very high metals price increases which were up an eye-watering +23.6% on that same annual basis.

In India, their April 'flash' PMIs reported a fast expansion that actually accelerated in the month, both for services and factories.

In Taiwan, and given earlier data on new orders, it will probably be no surprise to know that their industrial production was up +29% from a year ago, the fastest jump on record there. Their retail sales grew too, a turnaround from prior flat results, but nothing like in their factory sector.

There were 'flash' April PMIs out in Japan yesterday and their factory sector is strengthening (54.9 and a four year high) while their services sector's expansion cooled somewhat (51.2). This report also noted intensified cost pressures.

South Korea reported its Q1-2025 GDP rise at +3.6% from the equivalent 2025 quarter. This was the fastest growth since the fourth quarter of 2021 and exceeded forecasts of +2.7%.

In Europe, their factory sector is doing it tough in April. Eurozone output fell for first time in 16 months as prices surged higher.

In Australia, their S&P Global PMI tracking shows their economy expanding again in April after the surprise March contraction. Their factory PMI is back expanding at a modest pace (51.0) while their services sector is back at a steady state (50.3) after the notable March contraction. They noted rising cost pressures however.

Global container freight rates were essentially flat over the past week, with trans-Pacific rates rising but China-EU rates falling. These are now little-changed from a year ago too, up a minor +3% on that annual basis. But bulk cargo rates rose a sharpish +11% over the past week to be +110 higher than year ago levels.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.33%, up +4 bps from this time yesterday.

The price of gold will start today down -US$54 at US$4682/oz. Silver is down -US$2 at just under US$76/oz.

American oil prices are up +US$34at just on US$96.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is also up +US$4, and now at US$105.50/bbl and back in the range it was during the second half of March.

The Kiwi dollar is down a sharpish -60 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at just on 50.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -50 bps from yesterday at just on 62 and a two week low.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,590 and down -1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.5%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Tuesday – because Monday is a public holiday in New Zealand, ANZAC Day.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news Iran has attacked three ships in Strait of Hormuz and detaining two others so far after Trump indefinitely extended is ceasefire. It is a standoff over Tehran’s closing of the strait and Washington’s blockade that raises doubts about whether talks would actually resume.

The Pakistani mediators are not happy about the disheveled US approach to it all.

In the US, mortgage applications rose last week as mortgage rates dipped slightly. But that was enough to trigger a good rise in both the new purchase activity, and the refinance activity. Modest to be sure, but positive all the same.

American petrol inventories dropped by -4.6 mln barrels last week (even as US crude oil stocks rose unexpectedly), and this followed a -6.3 mln barrels fall the previous week. This was the tenth consecutive weekly fall and way more than the expected -1.5 mln barrels retreat. US petrol prices eased marginally from a week ago - they have stopped rising on a daily basis - but they are still up +35% from the start of the Trump Gulf War. That rise is now embedding.

Today's US Treasury 20yr bond auction brought regular modest demand, if softish, but the median yield rose to 4.84% from 4.77% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. There were similar 20 year German bund auctions overnight too, and yields on them rose similarly although they run about -150 bps lower.

It will be interesting to watch the release of the Tesla financial update later this morning. Their recent production has far outstripped sales, and much lower cost Chinese alternatives are causing them real headaches. Their battery business is also under extreme pressure.

In another odd corporate transaction, it seems the Trump Administration is quite comfortable using taxpayer money 'rescuing' (nationalising) failing airlines, and maybe other struggling businesses. (Apparently the government knows best and can do a better job running these businesses than the private sector. The 'deep state' at work.)

The April EU consumer sentiment survey revealed a sharp fall, suddenly back to levels they were at early 2023. It is a crash reminiscent of the initial pandemic reaction, one that took years to recover from.

In Australia, iron ore major BHP has responded to Chinese state pressure, agreeing to denominate its contracts in Chinese yuan rather than the USD, probably a significant break that will speed the internationalisation of the Chinese currency. It was the 'price' of a month's long standoff.

Sulphur and urea have eased marginally over the past week from record highs, but to be fair the fall-backs are not especially meaningful.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.29%, little-changed from this time yesterday. 

The price of gold will start today down +US$21 at US$4736/oz. Silver is up US$1.50 at US$8/oz.

American oil prices are up +US$3 at just over US$92.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$3.50, and now at US$101.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday at this time at 59.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up also +10 bps at 82.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today up +10 bps from yesterday at just on 62.5.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$79,034 and up +4.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just on +/- 3.1%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the US-wished resumption of talks with Iran don't seem to be happening. The Strait of Homuz remains closed, and even if it was re-opened it is never going back to 'normal'. It seems Trump has effectively generated to global push necessary to transition away from fossil fuels. Oil company share prices are retreating. Big investors are trying to offload their coal assets. China's green-tech is in demand everywhere, including in the US. We are now in the age of electricity where demand is surging.

Meanwhile the Warsh confirmation hearings in the US are following the predictable partisan scripts.

But first, today's full dairy auction featured a low amount of product offered and sold. -10% less than for the same week a year ago. Overall prices were down almost -2.75% below the last full auction in USD, down -5.85% in NZD. Northern hemisphere seasonal volumes are rising so global supply is very adequate. The main weakness in today's auction were from butter (-7.9%, AMF (-9.6%) and mozzarella (-3.1%). But WMP basically held its own (-0.6%) and SMP rose (+3.2%). Demand out of China rose, offsetting the unsettled Middle East demand.

In the US there was another strong indicator from the weekly ADP employment report, the second in a row.

And US retail sales came in better than expected for March, up +4.6% from a year ago, about twice the increase as for February. And that is their biggest rise in a year. But of course much of this will be inflation-related and much just came from the spike in retail petrol prices.

US pending home sales were up in March from February although the gain was less than in the prior month. That still leaves these residential real estate sales -1.1% lower than year ago levels.

Taiwanese export orders blew past all expectations yet again coming in at US$91.1 bln for March, up +67% from a year ago and up +18.5% above the prior stunning record high. Adjectives fail to adequately describe what is happening here

The German ZEW sentiment survey fell much sharper than the expected fall in April.

In Australia, the ACCC's court case against supermarket giants Coles and Woolworths regarding deceptive pricing practices over 'specials' is capturing attention.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.29%, up +4 bps from this time yesterday. 

And we should probably note that US private credit funds are about to report their March results and especially in the direct lending sector redemptions are expected to far exceed new investment. It is notable that big-money, wealthy investors are leading the retreat and probably leaving late-arriving retail investors with very damaged positions.

Interestingly, there are similar, although not as severe, pressures in China's private credit markets too.

The price of gold will start today down -US$92 at US$4715/oz. Silver is down -US$3.50 at US$76.50/oz.

American oil prices are up +50 USc at just over US$89.50, while the international Brent price is up +US$3, and now at US$98/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday at this time at 59 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 82.4 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 50.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today also up +20 bps from yesterday at just on 62.4.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$75,782 and off a minor -0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest also at just on +/- 1.2%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news Trump's Gulf War is back in escalation mode with the two belligerents' trading harsh rhetoric. Which of course means no oil is getting through. Kuwait has declared force majeure on its oil exports due to the US blockade.

Financial markets are reacting with caution, but it seems they remain ready to push up with yet another 'relief rally' if things calm down again.

Meanwhile. Canada's CPI inflation returned back to its 2.4% pa level where it has been for six of the past seven months and basically where it was in March 2025. But it is up from the unusual February 1.8% level, caused solely by the rise in energy prices.

And the Bank of Canada released two Q1-2026 expectation survey results. The business version reported improved sentiment, with fewer businesses saying they are being affected by trade tensions with the United States, and many expect sales growth to improve. The consumer one said they became less negative about their spending plans than in the previous quarter as downward pressure from trade tensions eased. All the same, it is still quite negative.

China has held its Loan Prime Rate (LPR) benchmarks at record lows for an 11th straight month in April 2026, matching market expectations. The one-year LPR, the benchmark for most corporate and household borrowing, was held at 3.0%, while the five-year LPR, a benchmark for mortgages, remained at 3.5%.

And China’s exports of electric vehicles, solar cells and lithium-ion batteries surged significantly in March, following a sudden spike in demand for green energy products. Their investment in 'green' non-oil alternatives is really paying off for them.

In Malaysia, their exports rose to a three-month high in March, but the rate of increased was lower at +8.3% from a year ago, compared to 10.7% in February.

In Germany, producer prices, which had been falling on a year-on-year basis since March 2025, were virtually unchanged in March (-0.2%), but they rose +2.5% from February as the oil price spike kicked in.

ECB boss Lagarde says they are uncertain how to react to the two threats of higher inflation from the oil shock, and lower growth prospects that result from that. She said the "double uncertainty about the duration of the shock and the breadth of pass-through argues for gathering more information before drawing firm conclusions for our monetary policy". But she also warned that if governments 'support' consumers with generous programs, their hand could be forced to weigh against the downstream consequences of embedded inflation. She used 2022 examples of how these problems are caused.

And the BIS is warning of the threats of stablecoins. "If widely adopted in their current form, stablecoins would pose policy challenges in areas ranging from credit provision to monetary policy, with risks to financial integrity and regulatory evasion looming large." They will be particularly threatening to the sovereignty of emerging markets, they say.

In Australia, they launched some direct "interest free" loans for certain sectors in their economy to assist them with the very high cost of fuel, logistics, fertilisers and plastics.

And we should probably note that the zinc price has risen to its highest since 2022, and prior to the pandemic, its highest since 2018.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.25%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday. 

The price of gold will start today down -US$22 at US$4807/oz. Silver is down -US$1 at US$80/oz.

American oil prices are up +US$5 at just over US$89, while the international Brent price is up +US$4.50, and now at US$95/bbl.

The IEA's latest monthly report details the quantum of the Trump Gulf War on the oil market. They say the global oil supply dropped by -10% in March to 97 million barrels per day amid attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East and the plunge in shipping traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz. 

The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are also up +10 bps at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 50 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today also little-changed from yesterday at just over 62.2.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$75,925 and up 1.5% from this time yesterday. A week ago it was US$72,976. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at just on +/- 1.5%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news expectations of an imminent resolution of the Persian Gulf standoff have stalled. Iranian officials have reversed reopening the Strait of Hormuz after the US refused to end its blockade of Iranian ports. Ships attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz have been fired on.

This is expected to weigh on financial markets when they open later today.

This week locally will be all about the March quarter CPI which will be released on Tuesday. Because most of that quarter didn't see the oil price spike until March, markets expect a 2.9% quarterly rate, slightly less than the 3.1% rate in Q4, 2025. It is a data series that really needs to be released monthly. It will be preceded by trade balance (today), and followed by the QSBO and an update on productivity.

In Australia, there are no major economic data releases, although we will get a flash report on their April PMI.

In the US, apart from earnings updates, they too will get a flash April PMI, and confirmation hearings for Kevin Warsh will but this billionaire in the spotlight.

In China, PMI results will also feature in a light data week. In Japan, it will be about March trade data and retail sales. Central banks will review their monetary policy settings and rates in China, Malaysia and the Philippines this week.

Over the weekend, Iran confirmed what most people understood - Trump was 'claiming victory' without any deals in place, and that is making ship transit of the Straits of Hormuz hazardous again. It looks like the progress claimed was a mirage.

In Canada, small business sentiment rose in April, an unexpected shift but likely due to local election results. The trade group that does this survey says it is still weak, but it is actually back to the levels that prevailed prior to the pandemic.

But Canadian housing starts sagged somewhat in March, coming in below February levels and what was expected. But they are now +6.9% higher than year-ago levels.

Indian loan growth reached +16.1% in the year to March according to official data released overnight. That is the fastest pace they have recorded since they started tracking this metric in April 2025.

In China, their construction machinery sector rose strongly in March with excavator sales up nearly +30%, of which domestic demand was up almost +24%.

Malaysian CPI inflation remained tame in March, up just +1.7%, although that was their highest rate since the beginning of 2025. They also reported that Q1-2026 economic activity rose +5.3%, and slightly less than the +5.5% expected.

Meanwhile, Singaporean exports were up +15.3% from a year ago, their second fasted monthly rise since mid 2024.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.24%, down -1 bp from this time Saturday and the same for the week. 

The price of gold will start today down -US$28 at US$4829/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at US$81/oz.

American oil prices are down -50 USc at just under US$84, while the international Brent price is also down -50 USc, and now at US$90.50/bbl. These new levels are down -US$12 and -US$4/bbl respectively. The North American rig counts fell again. Tonight, all eyes will be on the IEA's April update of the global oil situation.

The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from Saturday at this time at 58.8 USc, up +30 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at just on 50 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today also unchanged from Saturday at just over 62.2 but up +20 bps for the week.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$74,842 and down -3.0% from this time Saturday. A week ago it was US$72,976. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.1%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news of little progress in renewed US-Iran 'peace talks'. They seem to have descended into talks about extending the ceasefire rather than resolving any issues. The Strait of Hormuz is still essentially closed. Complicating the oil supply picture is that US crude inventories fell by -9.1 mln barrels last week, far exceeding analysts’ expectations for a modest +154,000-barrel increase. This is actually a big deal and has driven the oil price higher today.

In the US, initial jobless claims rose to 214,000 last week, but not as high as seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.89 mln people on these benefits, less than this time last year but more than two years ago.

But American industrial production fell in March from February, its first fall in four months. That makes it only +0.7% higher than year-ago levels, and hardly a surge in re-shoring. If it wasn't for the growth of AI centers and the electricity required to run them, this would have been a very disappointing result - and it probably is more most companies.

That said, the latest update from the Philadelphia Fed's factory survey was quite positive in April, driven by good growth in new orders. Of course, they are measured in nominal dollars and these firms reported notable rises in inflation, for both costs and prices.

In China, new home prices across 70 key cities fell -3.4% in March from a year ago, a minor worsening from a -3.2% decline in February. That was the 33rd straight month of contraction and the steepest drop since May 2025. Pre-owned home sales prices fell harder although for the first time in a while some key cities recorded month-on-month rises in prices.

China said its Q1-2026 GDP expansion was up 5.0%, and better than the 4.8% expected and the official target of "about 4.5%". And its industrial output was up +5.7% in March, they said. But their retail sales only grew 1.7% which will have been a disappointment because they really need a better rise in internal demand. All the good data reported is somewhat underlined by their data that shows electricity production fell again and for a fourth month, up just +1.4% from March 2025.

Australia's March labour market report was pretty tame. The employment rose by +17,900 (about the +20,000 expected) and the number of unemployed people fell by -4,000 in the month. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3%. Full-time employment increased by +52,500 to 10,174,400 (after the -27,700 fall in February) while part-time employment decreased by -34,600 to 4,593,300..

The expected inflation rate rose by 0.7 percentage points in April to 5.9% in Australia. It was 5.2% in March. The sharp rise in April reflects the recent spike in oil prices, and makes it its highest since November 2022. In contrast, wage change expectations have remained unchanged for the past five months.

In Australia, the big fire at the Geelong Vic. refinery, one of only two in the country, has major implications for Australia's fuels. They will need to import more from a global system already strained with demands on it. (The other one is the Ampol one in Brisbane.) Talk of needing emergency fuel savings measures, especially in Victoria, are growing.

Global container freight rates dipped -3% last week from the prior week to be little-changed from a year ago. But bulk cargo freight rates rose +16% last week, and are now almost double what they were this time last year.

Global travel rose +4.1% in 2025 according to new research with 80 mln people on the move. But they are increasingly avoiding the US where visitor numbers fell -5.5%. The main gainer is China where visitor numbers rose +9.9% and is predicted to eclipse the US has the main global destination - at this rate in just three years. It is a fast reversal.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.31%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday. 

The price of gold will start today little-changed, down just -US$5 at US$4488/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at US$78.50/oz.

American oil prices are up +US$2.50 at just over US$95/bbl, while the international Brent price is up US$4, and now at US$99.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -20 bps at 82.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today also down -20 bps from yesterday at just over 62.2.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$74,361 and up +0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news financial markets are betting Trump will endlessly extend the ceasefire with Iran and the crisis there will fade. Ships are getting through the Strait of Hormuz despite the US's 'blockade'. But there remains plenty of high-stakes risks, especially as Chinese navy warships are heading to the region. But Iran holds all the long-term cards.

In the US, Trump has renewed his threats to fire Fed boss Powell for 'corruption', a clear misdirection play that has few falling for it. If he did, it still remains uncertain how this would play out, or even whether he has the authority to do so.

US mortgage applications rose slightly last week with a return of better refinance activity. But activity for new home purchases slipped lower.

The US Fed's Beige Book survey found the conflict in the Middle East being cited as a major source of uncertainty that complicated decision-making around hiring, pricing, and capital investment, with many firms adopting a wait-and-see posture. It also found signs of consumer financial strain, increased price sensitivity, and rising demand at food banks and other social service organizations. But spending among higher-income consumers was resilient, they reported.

The April New York Empire factory survey revealed at sharp rise in costs and prices, but it expanded anyway and better than expected on a rise in new orders. But optimism waned and capital spending plans weakened.

Meanwhile home builders in the US are doing it tough with widespread discounting and incentive use to spur weak sales. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell to its lowest since September in March when a rise was anticipated in this sector.

There was a big surprise out of Japan yesterday. Machinery orders rose +13.6% in February from January, to be +24.7% higher than year-ago levels. This was after January orders were up +13.7%. The February year-on-year gain was three time higher than what was expected. (Japan has been drinking some Taiwan juice.) But a lot has happened since. Japanese manufacturers' confidence posted its biggest month-on-month drop in ​more than three years in April, dampened by surging oil prices and supply-chain disruptions caused ‌by the Middle East conflict, the Reuters Tankan poll showed.

Meanwhile, EU industrial production rose more in February from January than expected, and the decline from a year ago was less than expected. This data is inflation adjusted, but still, it isn't particularly positive.

In Australia, long term permanent immigrant arrivals bounced back strongly in February from January to +14,100 for the month but it was still -4.4% lower than for February 2025 and -14% lower than February 2024. For the year to February, permanent arrivals totalled +141,660, down more than -10% from a year ago and the least since September 2023.

And Australian prime minister Albanese has been in Brunei where he secured substantial oil and fertiliser supply agreements.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.28%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday. 

The price of gold will start today down -US$44 at US$4493/oz. Silver is up +US$1.50 at US$79/oz.

American oil prices are up +US$1 at just under US$92.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is also up US$1, and now at US$95.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is essentially unchanged from yesterday at this time at 59.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82.5 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at just on 50.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -10 bps from yesterday at just on 62.4.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$74,1867 and down -0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.9%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the IMF has downgraded its global forecasts and said the world's economy is drifting into unpalatable conditions. A third recession since 2000 is possible, they say. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed by the actions of both combatants. "Talks" are supposedly going on which is exciting equity markets. But bond and currency markets are bracing for stagflation.

But first up today, the overnight dairy Pulse auction brought the expected lower prices, with WMP down -1.8% from the prior week's full auction event, SMP down -1.9%, and butter down -3.7%. These shifts are in USD, and with the rising NZD they will be deeper. Butter in fact is now at its lowest level since January 2024, a 27 month low.

In the US, their labour market does not appear to be cracking according to the high-frequency weekly data from the ADP Pulse tracking. US private employers added +39,250 jobs per week in March. This is a sharp increase from the +26,000 weekly jobs created in the prior period and is the fourth consecutive week of improvement in hiring.

The March NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to its lowest since April 2025 and this new level is lower than the lower level expected. They said "the dramatic spike in oil prices has spooked consumers and owners alike. Small business owners are having to absorb those higher input costs and pass them along to their customers”. Their uncertainty measure spiked.

Meanwhile US producer prices rose less than the expected +4.6% jump in March, 'only' rising +4.0% according to official data. Still, that is the fastest rise since February 2023.

China's March exports rose only a modest +2.5% from a year earlier, whereas their imports rose a startling +27.8%. Despite that, they has so much headroom they still managed to record a trade surplus of +¥355 bln / US$51 bln in March, although about half of what was anticipated.

Yesterday, Singapore tightened their monetary policy in a new effort to ensure inflation does not ruin their economy.

In Australia, consumer sentiment has dived lower. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell heavily in April, falling by a level only exceeded in the depth of the pandemic.

Australian business confidence has plunged dramatically as well. It fell -29 index points, the second largest monthly fall in the survey’s history – with falls of this magnitude previously only seen in the GFC and the onset of the pandemic. Current conditions changed little, but the sentiment outlook has crashed pretty much in the same way consumer sentiment has. Forward orders fell. Costs rose +3.0% in the quarter, more than twice as fast as prices charged (+1.1%).

So it will be little surprise to know that the RBA is worried, really worried. Australia faces a difficult macro backdrop. In a fireside chat, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned of the “nightmare” scenario where inflation accelerates even as growth weakens, complicating policy choices. He was speaking at a New York event.

We all understand that the US abandoning its strategic role in the global economy means new alliances and connections will grow to replace them. But not all of those will be welcome. We should note that the Indonesian President is in Moscow, seeking a realignment with them. It is a balance from recent 'deals' with the US. The US Administration looks just like the Putin Administration to Jakarta.

The IMF now says global inflation is expected to average 4.4% in 2026, up from their projected 3.8% in their January review. They also downgraded their global growth outlook, unsurprising given the mess we are all working through..

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.25%, down -5 bps from this time yesterday. 

The price of gold will start today up +US$98 at US$4836/oz. Silver is up +US$4 at US$77.50/oz.

American oil prices are down -US$7.50 at just on US$91.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$4.50, and now at US$94.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is up +50 bps from yesterday at this time at 59.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 50.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today up +40 bps from yesterday at just on 62.5.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$74,709 and up +3.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.8%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the US blockade on the Strait of Hormuz is starting, and a notable feature is that no other country has agreed to join it. Oil prices have risen, along with prices for many other products that rely on trade from the Persian Gulf.

The last tankers to exit the Gulf are now arriving at Asian refineries, so the crunch is ahead of us, and getting closer.

In the US, existing home sales dipped in March as buyers held back on the growing uncertainty. Analysts had expected a dip but this one was slightly larger than anticipated at -3.6%, taking the annual sales rate below 4 mln for the first time since June 2025. It is now also lower on a year-on-year basis. Of course, unsold inventory rose, although not alarmingly.

But there was a larger retreat in building consents in Canada, falling -8.4% in February from January, down -11.5% from a year ago. Most of this was caused by a sharp -24% in non-residential building consents. In fact, housing consents rose +6.4% in the month, led by multi-unit construction.

And there are by-elections in Canada, with most observers seeing Prime Minister Carney in a much stronger position after the votes are counted, no longer leading a minority government.

In China, new yuan loans came in at ¥2.99 tln in March, below the ¥3.36 tln in the same month in 2025, and lower than the ¥3.4 tln forecasted to be their lowest March since 2021.

And a key Chinese rare earth producer has raised its prices +45% for Q2-2026, to a level that is double what it was in Q2-2025. It was their largest quarterly hike since 2023.

India's CPI inflation is rising, continuing a trend that started in November. It was at +3.4% in March, its highest since February 2025. Food prices were up +3.7%. Having noted that, we should also note that a slightly larger rise was anticipated.

Aluminium prices continue to rise, and are now approaching the very unusual peak we saw in February 2022.

And in Australia, we should note that a final court ruling is due any time now on the decades-long dispute over whether Gina Reinhart's claim to the Hancock mining fortune is valid. Could be some fun fireworks ahead.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.30%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday.

The price of gold will start today down -US$9 at US$4738/oz. Silver is little-changed at US$75.50/oz.

American oil prices are up +US$2.50 at just on US$99/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$4, also now at US$99/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 82.7 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 50 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today up +20 bps from yesterday at just on 62.1.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$72,231 and up +1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.3%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the US President has made ever more threats against Iran, now saying the US will blockade the Straits of Hormuz against friend and foe. The main losers will be the Gulf States that supported him. Iran probably foresees another TACO playing out. It is all very juvenile. But it does mean disruption will continue. And that inflation will stay higher for longer.

But first, here in New Zealand in the week ahead, we will get updated data about migration, retail (electronic cards) and CPI data about food and other selected items. We will also get the PSI (today), and the March REINZ data later in the week

In Australia, the week will be about business confidence (NAB survey) and consumer confidence Westpac survey) as well as the March labour market results, with the economy expected to have added around 20,000 jobs in March, while the jobless rate is seen holding steady at 4.3%.

The development in the Middle East will remain the driver of global financial market movements, with current agreements proving fragile and energy exports from the region not yet restarted. The impacts on producer prices in the US are expected to show up in their PPI data.

In China, a heavy data calendar will provide investors with fresh insight into their economy’s performance. GDP growth for Q1 is expected to accelerate to 5.0% from 4.5% in Q4 2025. The country’s trade surplus is also projected to widen slightly to US$112 bln in March, up from US$102 bln a year earlier. Meanwhile, industrial production and retail sales are likely to have slowed in March. New yuan loans are expected to rise to ¥3.4 tln.

In Japan, it will be about machinery orders. In India, about a rising inflation rate.

On Friday in the US, their CPI inflation rate jumped to 3.3% in March, about the expected rise. This was all due to fuel prices, especially petrol and diesel. Core inflation, which excludes this and food also moved up but more modestly, to a 2.7% rate. The Fed will be watching to see if this is transitory, or building in.

Still, US oil rig counts are not rising in response to these higher prices. Actually, they fell slightly. With US crude prices higher than Middle East prices, those producers have decided the best strategy is 'do nothing' and milk the benefits.

So it will be no surprise to know that the University of Michigan sentiment index plummeted in their latest survey to a historic low in early April, far below both market expectations and last year’s low level. Sentiment declined across all demographics, as well as every index component, emphasising the broad-based drop. (But it is also worth noting that this survey was taken before the 'ceasefire' claims.)

Also, there was no growth in US factory orders in February from January, well before the Iran conflict. From a year ago they were up +4.0%, most of that coming earlier in the year.

Take a look at this: it is the share price history for FirstCash, an American pawn shop operator. Set the chart to 'MAX'. They have more than 3,000 pawn stores in 29 US states, and business is booming.

In Canada, their March labour market report showed little-change, with overall employment rising a minor +14,000 holding at just over 21 mln. There were also few changes in either full-time or part-time employment, and the jobless rate stayed unchanged at 6.7%

In Korea, their central bank kept its policy interest rate unchanged at 2.25%. They have an inflation date of 2.2% but expect this to rise in the current environment.

China said its CPI inflation rate was +1.0% in March from a year ago, a smaller rise than expected and lower than the February +1.3% rate (which was a three year high). Food prices only rose +0.3% year-on-year, restrained by pork and fresh vegetables. Beef prices were up +7.8% from a year ago, lamb prices up +6.8%. Dairy product prices fell -0.7% on the same basis.

China also released its producer price data today which shows them suddenly out of deflation, with PPI up +0.5% from a year ago in March, the first time since September 2022, and prior to the pandemic distortion, the first time since early 2019.

There was a sharp drop in vehicle sales in China in March (down -8.8%) after Beijing cut subsidies. That has turned their automakers to chasing export orders, and their appetite is desperate, and a threat to most of the world's other carmakers.

In Taiwan, their export machine delivered another spectacular result in March, after the easing in February. Their exports were up to yet another record high of US$80 bln, a gain of +62% from the same month a year ago. Imports were up +59% on that same basis.

German inflation was confirmed at 2.7% in March, the same as their preliminary estimate, and back up to levels last seen in January 2024.

In Hungary, early results seem to favour the Tisza opposition and against Victor Orban's Fidesz. But Orban controls much of the election apparatus so it will need to be an overwhelming result to defeat him. Turnout was reported to be high.

In Australia, the recent Albanese trip to Singapore to source fuel, especially diesel, caps an effective open-chequebook campaign to acquire what they need, with a virtual armada of ships to arrive in Australia over the next few weeks. The list here is interesting. We count 56 ships in that wave, some even from the US.

It is also probably worth noting that China said it will ban exports of sulphuric acid, a move that will handicap copper mining, among other industries including the fertiliser industries. The copper price rose. And of course the sulphur price was already at a record high before that move. The urea price rose, back to the pandemic extremes. To be clear, there is no formal Chinese announcement of this latest curb, only producers there telling clients that they have had instructions from Beijing to block suppling them from May.

And the IMF said the war on Iran will mean slower growth this year because of the destruction of energy infrastructure and supply chain disruptions. Not really 'news' but their analysis is compelling, and 2026 could be a write-off for any 'recovery'.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.32%, up +1 bp from this time Saturday but down -3 bps from this time last week. 

The price of gold will start today down -US$21 at US$4747/oz, but up +US$71 for the week. Silver is down -US$1 at US$75.50/oz.

American oil prices are holding at just on US$96.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is still at just on US$95/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$110.50 and US$109/bbl respectively.

The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from Saturday at this time at 58.4 USc. But that is a +150 bps appreciation (+2.8%) from this time last week. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps to 82.7 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at just on 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -10 bps from Saturday at just on 61.9, or up +110 bps (+2.0%) for the week

The bitcoin price starts today at US$71,192 and down -2.4% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.3%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI