Powered by Polymarket. Back in the U.S. — polymarket.us

Hosts and guests may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed. Views expressed are for informational purposes only and not investment or trading advice.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

Then David DesRosiers, publisher of RealClearPolitics and host of Get Real, joins Eventual to talk about polling, Polymarket, prediction markets, political science, the future of election forecasting, the 2026 midterms, Democratic Socialists in primaries, big-city politics, gender polarization, and what Republicans and Democrats can learn from each other.

Topics include:

Graham Platner drops out of the Maine Senate race

Maine Democrats scramble to pick a replacement nominee

Troy Jackson, Shenna Bellows, Nirav Shah, Jordan Wood, and Dan Kleban

Maine Senate election odds and 2026 Senate control

Nigel Farage, Reform UK, and Count Binface

The UK’s strangest by-election

RealClearPolitics adding Polymarket odds

Polling averages vs. prediction markets

Why prediction markets matter for political analysis

The future of election forecasting after 538

House and Senate control markets

DSA-aligned candidates in Democratic primaries

Urban decline, migration, and big-city politics

Young men, gender polarization, and the Trump coalition

What the GOP and Democrats can learn from each other

Guest:

David DesRosiers — Publisher, RealClearPolitics

Sponsored segment:

Includes a Polymarket ad read.

Disclaimer:

Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this stream should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Guests, hosts, and viewers may hold positions in prediction markets and may change those positions at any time. Nothing here is an endorsement to buy, sell, or trade any market. Trade safe and follow all applicable laws and platform rules in your jurisdiction.

Subscribe to Eventual for more politics, prediction markets, election odds, and probabilistic analysis.

#PredictionMarkets #Polymarket #RealClearPolitics #Politics #Election2026 #Midterms #MaineSenate #GrahamPlatner #NigelFarage #CountBinface #Polling #ElectionForecasting #PoliticalScience #Eventual

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

Also on the show: what we’re watching this week, Congress doing nothing, inflation, Odd Lots, Neera Tanden, and whether Britain has gone bonkers again. 

Topics include: USMNT fallout Graham Platner and the Maine Senate race Democrats’ 2026 Senate path Susan Collins and Senate control markets Trades to watch this week Curt Mills on Iran, Trump, and foreign policy Iran nuclear deal prediction markets China, AI, and data center politics JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Gavin Newsom, and AOC in 2028 Oracle of the Week 

Guest: Curt Mills — Executive Director, The American Conservative 

Follow Curt Mills: https://x.com/CurtMills F

ollow Joe Weisenthal: https://x.com/TheStalwart 

Follow Neera Tanden: https://x.com/neeratanden/status/2071... 

Sponsored segment: Includes a Polymarket ad read. 

Disclaimer: Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this stream should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk, and viewers are responsible for complying with all applicable laws and platform rules in their jurisdiction. Like, subscribe, and turn on notifications for more politics, markets, and probability.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

First, Alex and Doug break down the World Cup through a prediction-market lens, focusing on home-field advantage, hostile road environments, altitude, and how those factors can shape knockout-stage expectations. Doug explains why home teams and home-continent teams may be undervalued, why older underdog-betting theories may not be working in recent knockout rounds, and where he sees value across World Cup markets.

Then they turn to the latest New York Times/Siena battleground Senate polls. The numbers look rougher for Democrats in several key races, but Doug argues one poll should not radically change the broader picture. Alex and Doug discuss whether Democrats are still a buy, why polling error matters months before Election Day, and how a small miss could swing multiple Senate seats in either direction.

Plus: Nate Silver’s World Cup model gets a shoutout, Barnard Bulletin earns Oracle of the Week, and Alex tees up the coming conversation with Andrew Tobias on Ohio politics, AI data centers, and the Sherrod Brown/John Husted race.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

The episode also explores whether the rise of DSA-style and populist Democratic campaigns means class politics is becoming a more central frame in the party. Co-host Brian Golden also joins to talk about the latest news from Iran and why markets are being cautious reacting, as well as who the top predictors this week were worldwide. Key topics: Colorado primary day Diana DeGette vs. Melat Kiros and Wanda James Michael Bennet vs. Phil Weiser Prediction markets and lightly polled races Why unaffiliated voters may choose Democratic primaries Anti-establishment energy inside the Democratic Party Trump as the organizing issue for both parties Populism, class politics, and the future of Democratic coalitions.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

We dig into AOC's presidential market — is she a real contender or a long-shot story? Then we talk Chuck Schumer: what does his political future actually look like, and why aren't there more markets on it?

From there, we go deep on Michigan with Zack Stanton of MS NOW. Abdul El-Sayed is surging in the Democratic Senate primary ahead of the August 4th vote, and the markets have him heavy favorite over Rep. Haley Stevens. Is that price right? And if El-Sayed wins, does he hand the seat to Mike Rogers in November?

Plus: California's billionaire wealth tax is sitting at 65% odds to make the ballot — and Gavin Newsom is quietly trying to kill it before the June 25th certification deadline. We debate whether to fade or follow that number.

And Mark Zuckerberg is reportedly building a prediction markets app. What does that mean for Polymarket, Kalshi, and the space overall?

Powered by Polymarket — now back in the U.S. with a new app and a $20 signup bonus.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

The Ringer's Anthony Dabbundo talks the World Cup — the teams, the bets, and whether Trump is about to make the biggest soccer tournament in history about himself.

And Georgia just handed traders a gift. Jon Ossoff has his opponent. Doug explains why it might be the best bond on the board right now.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

In Episode 1, host Alex Keeney introduces the founding crew: the traders, oddsmakers, and analysts at the center of Eventual's coverage. What they're watching, what they're trading, and what they're seeing that you probably aren't yet.

Topics include:

-- Bad Bunny, Drake, Spotify Wrapped

-- Texas Senate, Ken Paxton

-- Keir Starmer, Andy Burnham, UK politics

-- AOC, JD Vance, 2028 presidential race

-- Gen Z, gender polarizatio

S1E1. You were here from the start.

Brought to you by Polymarket — thousands of markets on politics, economics, technology, and more. Visit polymarket.com.

🔔 Subscribe

📰 eventual.news

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.