Eventual

Midterms SZN & CPI | Patrick Ruffini

alex@eventual.news (Alex Keeney, Brian Golden, Patrick Ruffini) — Wed, 9 Sep 2026 02:14:33 +0000

Today on the show: election season is here, inflation may be back, Fed trades are getting messy, and Patrick Ruffini joins Eventual to talk polling error, midterm markets, low-propensity voters, and whether summer Senate polls are giving traders the wrong signal.

Alex Keeney and Brian Golden start by getting into the head of the median voter: McDonald’s, Bud Light, Monster Energy, gas prices, data centers, and just enough ChatGPT to get through laundry day.

Then: it’s Election SZN. Alex and Brian go long or short on the first wave of midterm markets, including Georgia, North Carolina, Maine, Nebraska, Alaska, and the broader question of which races are already moving from “competitive” to “basically called” in trader discourse.

The show also looks at Georgia, where new reporting has raised questions about Mike Collins’s campaign against Jon Ossoff. Is the Georgia Senate race already in “done chain” territory, or is that exactly the kind of early-cycle certainty that gets traders in trouble?

Then: campaign-season awards. Alex and Brian talk about candidate narratives, strong and weak campaigns, partisan tides, House control, and whether some “great candidate” stories are about to run into the hard math of the midterms.

Next: inflation. With core CPI due, oil nearing $100 after Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, and Fed hike markets moving again, the guys break down what traders should watch in the August CPI report. Month-over-month vs. year-over-year inflation, headline vs. core, and small decimal-place differences may decide whether September becomes a real Fed hike debate.

Plus: Nathan Fielder, Elizabeth Holmes, Oscar season, Harry and Meghan back in the UK, the GTA VI trailer, and why big cultural prediction markets are starting to feel like real macro instruments.

Then Patrick Ruffini joins Eventual to discuss whether recent Senate polls have systematically overstated Democrats, how far back the pattern goes, what role white non-college voters and low-propensity voters play in polling error, and whether the polling industry still deserves the benefit of the doubt heading into the midterms.

The conversation also covers Trump’s role in midterm turnout, affordability and economic pressure, Texas polling, gerrymandering, House seat markets, polling variance, and whether “polls biased?” is a data story, a sociology story, or both.

Finally: Pick of the Week — Iowa State/Iowa UNDER 40.5.

Topics include:
Election season begins
Prediction market trading in the midterms
Georgia Senate market
Jon Ossoff and Mike Collins
North Carolina Senate market
Roy Cooper
Maine Senate market
Troy Jackson
Nebraska Senate market
Pete Ricketts
Alaska Senate market
Mary Peltola
House control markets
Senate markets
Candidate narratives and partisan tides
Polling error
Polls biased toward Democrats?
Patrick Ruffini on midterm polling
Low-propensity voters
White non-college voters
Latino voters and polling
Trump and midterm turnout
Inflation report preview
Core CPI
Month-over-month vs. year-over-year inflation
Fed hike in September
Fed hike in 2026
Oil near $100
Houthi attacks and energy prices
Gas prices and the median voter
Data centers and voter sentiment
Nathan Fielder
Elizabeth Holmes
Oscar season
Harry and Meghan
GTA VI trailer
Iowa State vs. Iowa UNDER 40.5

Guest:
Patrick Ruffini

Hosted by:
Alex Keeney
Brian Golden

For more prediction market news and analysis, visit eventual.news.

Sponsored segment:
Includes a Polymarket ad read. Polymarket US is back in the United States at polymarket.us.

Disclaimer:
Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this episode should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Hosts, guests, and viewers may hold positions in prediction markets and may change those positions at any time. Nothing here is an endorsement to buy, sell, or trade any market. Trade safe and follow all applicable laws and platform rules in your jurisdiction.

If using Polymarket US, remember it is 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading is risky, and 100% loss can occur. Not available in all jurisdictions. See polymarket.com/tos for more information.

Some featured markets discussed may not be available to U.S. users and are included for informational purposes only.

Subscribe to Eventual for prediction market news, Polymarket analysis, Kalshi coverage, political trading, election odds, polling analysis, Fed markets, inflation trades, and probabilistic thinking.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

US Open, Todd Blanche, & Trump’s Legal Woes | Ankush Khardori

alex@eventual.news (Alex Keeney, Ankush Khardori, Pratik Chougule) — Wed, 2 Sep 2026 01:01:03 +0000

Trump’s revenge tour, pardon markets, political arrest markets, Todd Blanche’s future at the Justice Department, and new legal trouble for prediction markets after a major Ninth Circuit fight involving Kalshi. Alex Keeney breaks down a short but packed episode covering the U.S. Open, Fed rate markets, Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, Congress returning to Washington, and the court decision that could shape the future of sports and political event contracts. First: Fed rates. Markets now show rising odds of a rate hike this year, with September in focus after Kevin Warsh’s speech flipped expectations. Alex looks at the September Fed decision market, dumb money on both sides of the trade, and why traders are split heading into the Sept. 15 meeting. Then: legal problems for prediction markets. Mick Bransfield’s reporting at Eventual explains why traders have been watching the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals for clues about Kalshi, Nevada, sports trading, and the future of event contracts. Are we still in the golden age of prediction market trading, or is the legal environment starting to tighten? The main segment features Ankush Khardori, author of Open File, former federal prosecutor, legal analyst, and New York Times opinion contributor. Ankush joins Alex and Pratik Chougule to discuss Todd Blanche, Trump’s Justice Department, the New York bar market, and whether Blanche could ever face suspension or disbarment. The conversation then turns to Trump’s political enemies and “revenge tour” markets: John Brennan, Anthony Fauci, James Comey, Adam Schiff, James Clapper, Letitia James, Loretta Lynch, Susan Rice, and others. Ankush explains how venue, grand juries, DOJ incentives, timing, and presidential pressure all matter when thinking about whether political investigations could turn into actual arrests or indictments. Finally, the show looks at Trump’s pardon pen. Trump has already shown a willingness to use pardons aggressively, but can traders forecast them? Ankush discusses the informal pardon economy, political connections, white-collar crime, January 6 pardons, Derek Chauvin, Maduro, and why Trump’s pardon process may be unusually ad hoc. Topics include: Trump revenge tour markets Who will be arrested before 2027? Trump pardon markets Todd Blanche attorney general Todd Blanche disbarment market New York bar discipline Justice Department independence Trump and the DOJ Political prosecutions and legal norms John Brennan market Anthony Fauci market James Comey market Adam Schiff market James Clapper market Letitia James market Loretta Lynch and Susan Rice Grand juries and venue shopping Florida investigations DC grand juries John Bolton classified documents case Trump pardon strategy January 6 pardons Derek Chauvin pardon market Maduro pardon market Prediction market legal trouble Kalshi Ninth Circuit case Nevada sports trading ban Political event contract regulation Fed rate hike markets Kevin Warsh Jackson Hole speech September Fed decision Congress returns to Washington Guest: Ankush Khardori — author of Open File Hosted by: Alex Keeney Pratik Chougule For more prediction market news and analysis, visit eventual.news. Sponsored segment: Includes a Polymarket ad read. Polymarket US is back in the United States at polymarket.us. Disclaimer: Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this episode should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Hosts, guests, and viewers may hold positions in prediction markets and may change those positions at any time. Nothing here is an endorsement to buy, sell, or trade any market. Trade safe and follow all applicable laws and platform rules in your jurisdiction. If using Polymarket US, remember it is 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading is risky, and 100% loss can occur. Not available in all jurisdictions. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. Some featured markets discussed may not be available to U.S. users and are included for informational purposes only. Subscribe to Eventual for prediction market news, Polymarket analysis, Kalshi coverage, legal markets, political trading, election odds, Fed markets, and probabilistic thinking.

Warsh’s Big Speech, Zelenskyy Swings the Bat, PMs Face Scrutiny | Mick Bransfield

alex@eventual.news (Alex Keeney, Doug Campbell, Mick Bransfield) — Thu, 27 Aug 2026 20:02:21 +0000

Kevin Warsh heads to Jackson Hole, oil risk is back in the Fed conversation, Ukraine’s drone campaign is hitting Russia’s fuel supply, and prediction market regulation is entering a new phase.

Alex Keeney is joined by Doug Campbell to break down the latest action across macro, geopolitics, prediction markets, and regulation. The show starts with small talk on Meta’s $18 billion settlement, the future of data centers, and the emerging political consensus as figures like Greg Abbott and Josh Shapiro turn against parts of the tech buildout.

Then: Warsh Watch. With markets focused on the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole speech, Kevin Warsh faces pressure to clarify his views on inflation, rate hikes, bond markets, Treasury interventions, and the relationship between the Fed and the Treasury. What does it mean if the speech is boring? What would Warsh actually say if he wanted to signal a rate hike? And are traders overpricing the odds of a Fed hike this year?

The show also connects the Fed conversation to Iran, oil, and global risk. If a deal involving Iran and Oman gets oil moving again, does that reduce pressure on inflation and make a rate hike less likely? And if oil risk fades, what does that mean for election markets?

Next: Ukraine. Reports of a worsening fuel crisis inside Russia raise new questions about whether Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure is changing the war’s strategic picture. Alex and Doug look at Ukraine ceasefire markets, Russia’s gasoline shortages, and whether the current window before the midterms and Russian election creates any real chance of a deal.

Then: Bet Sizing 101. Doug lays out a practical framework for sizing +EV prediction market trades without waking up at 3 a.m. to check the price — and why being underwater is not always a signal that you were wrong.

Finally, Mick Bransfield joins Eventual to talk prediction market regulation. States are increasingly targeting political and election event contracts, with legal and regulatory fights developing in Arizona, Minnesota, Nevada, New York, Washington, and Wisconsin. Is this pre-election panic, legal dirty tricks, or the beginning of a larger crackdown? And does Don Jr.’s connection to the industry make prediction markets safer — or more politically exposed?

Topics include: Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve rate hike markets, Inflation and bond market risk, Treasury interventions, Scott Bessent and Fed politics, Iran, Oman, and oil markets, Oil prices and election risk, Ukraine ceasefire markets, Russia gasoline shortages, Ukrainian drone strikes on energy infrastructure, Russia fuel crisis, How to size prediction market bets, +EV betting and bankroll discipline, Oracle of the Week, Dunce of the Week, Alaska voters, Rigatohni, GOP insiders, Mick Bransfield on prediction market regulation, Political event contracts, Election market regulation, Arizona criminal charges, Minnesota legislation, Nevada, New York, Washington, and Wisconsin, Don Jr. and prediction markets, Polymarket, Kalshi, and regulatory trouble

SC Votes, Trade War, & Disclosure Day | Ben Jacobs, Ben Schreckinger, & Zoltar

Tue, 25 Aug 2026 22:40:24 +0000

Today on the show: South Carolina votes, Darline Graham and Ralph Norman are locked in a high-stakes GOP Senate fight, Canada trade war markets are moving, Scott Jennings shares are under review, and Ben Schreckinger joins Zoltar for a wild deep dive on UFOs, UAPs, alien disclosure, and prediction market rules.

Alex Keeney and Brian Golden start with South Carolina for quants. With voting underway in the Republican Senate primary, Darline Graham and Ralph Norman are neck and neck in the latest Trafalgar poll. The team breaks down what traders should watch, from Horry County to Charleston to Columbia, and whether Graham’s 65–70% market price is too high, too low, or finally reflecting the race.

Then: trader drama. The “MAGA Kiki Club” gossip around the Darline leak has the trader illuminati angry, Brian is in trouble, and the vibes-vs-quants debate is back.

The show also checks in on the Canada trade war after Trump threatened to rename Lake Ontario “Lake America” as tensions with Canada escalate. USMCA extension odds have fallen sharply, and the question is whether traders should keep pressing the short side.

If time allows, the show also turns to Scott Jennings, with new reporting suggesting Trump may want a man as White House press secretary. Are 35-cent Jennings shares still worth holding, or is it time to dump?

Then Ben Jacobs joins Eventual for a South Carolina vibe check from the ground. Ben talks about what he has seen across Horry County, Charleston, Columbia, and the broader state, whether voters know there is an election, what is motivating turnout, and how he would price the Graham vs. Norman market.

Ben also weighs in on Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, Jewish voters in the Democratic Party, and what the post-MAGA Republican ecosystem could look like after Trump. CPAC, Turning Point, Don Jr.’s podcast, and the future of conservative media all make the board.

Later, Gaeten Dugas joins Eventual to grade Alex and Brian’s Senate betting theses in a back-to-school segment.

Finally, Ben Schreckinger of Paradigm News joins Zoltar for a pre-recorded alien disclosure segment. They discuss whether the U.S. government is covering up UFOs, what terms like “non-human intelligence,” “non-human biologics,” “UAP,” and “extraterrestrial” actually mean for prediction market resolution.

The segment also covers Project Blue Book, Roswell, Lockheed Martin, Harry Reid, Anna Paulina Luna, Eric Burlison, Bobby Kennedy, Dr. Phil, disclosure politics, Japan UFO files, Brazil’s Varginha case, the Zimbabwe school UFO story, Majestic 12, and whether 2028 could produce an “aliens are real” presidential candidate.

Topics include:

South Carolina GOP Senate primary, Darline Graham vs. Ralph Norman, South Carolina voting and turnout, Horry County, Charleston, and Columbia, Trafalgar polling and prediction markets, Vibes vs. quants, MAGA Kiki Club gossip, Trader illuminati drama, Canada trade war ,Trump and Lake Ontario, USMCA extension markets ,Scott Jennings White House press secretary odds, Ben Jacobs on South Carolina, Michigan Senate market ,Abdul El-Sayed and Democratic politics, Jewish voters and the Democratic Party, Post-MAGA Republican politics, CPAC, Turning Point, and Don Jr., Gaeten Dugas grades Senate bets, Ben Schreckinger on UFO disclosure, Zoltar on alien markets, Will the U.S. confirm aliens exist?, UAPs, UFOs, NHI, and non-human biologics, Trump disclosure speech rumors, Obama alien comments, Anna Paulina Luna and congressional hearings, Eric Burlison and UAP luring claims, Bobby Kennedy and disclosure politics, Project Blue Book and Roswell, Lockheed Martin and alleged reverse engineering, Japan UFO file markets, Brazil Varginha UFO case, Zimbabwe school UFO story, Majestic 12, 2028 alien disclosure candidate

Darline Graham, Scott Jennings & Dunce of the Week | Domer

alex@eventual.news (Alex Keeney, Domer, Alex Asdourian, Matt Talese) — Fri, 21 Aug 2026 00:09:52 +0000

Today on the show: fake polls are back, longshots are alive, Darline Graham hits a rough patch in South Carolina, U.S. debt tops $40 trillion, and prediction market traders have plenty to sort through before September’s midterm trading wave.

Alex Keeney is joined by Domer to break down the latest action across politics, elections, debt markets, and Polymarket. The show starts with small talk on White House press secretary markets, Scott Jennings, Anna Kelly, Natalie Harp, Alina Habba, fake Dan Sullivan, and encouraging signs for Mary Peltola.

Then: fake polls. After another longshot hit in Florida — with Angie Nixon, not Alexander Vindman, becoming the Democratic nominee for Senate — Alex and Domer ask whether “longshot summer” is now the defining feature of political trading. If traders are overbonding favorites, are cheap longshots the best answer?

Next: South Carolina. Darline Graham’s odds have fallen after a rough debate moment on U.S.–Taiwan relations raised new questions about her experience in the Senate runoff to replace Lindsey Graham. Ralph Norman is gaining attention, Graham’s market has dropped from heavy favorite territory, and traders are asking whether this is a buy-the-dip moment or the start of a real collapse.

The show also turns to America’s $40 trillion debt milestone. With long-term borrowing costs in focus and the Treasury stepping in with buyback plans, Alex and Domer go long or short on shutdown odds, debt downgrade markets, and whether Trump can reduce the deficit this year.

Plus: Oracle of the Week, Dunce of the Week, Cory Mills tips, and Rick Wilson discourse.

Topics include:

Fake polls in election markets

Prediction market scams and bad data

Golden age of longshots

Angie Nixon Florida Senate upset

Alexander Vindman and Resistance politics

Overbonding favorites

Cheap longshot trades

South Carolina Senate runoff

Darline Graham vs. Ralph Norman

Darline Graham debate fallout

U.S.–Taiwan relations controversy

Lindsey Graham replacement race

MAGA Kiwi Club and Darline bonds

White House press secretary markets

Scott Jennings odds

Anna Kelly, Natalie Harp, and Alina Habba

Fake Dan Sullivan week

Mary Peltola market signals

U.S. debt hits $40 trillion

Government shutdown odds

U.S. debt downgrade markets

Trump deficit reduction market

Treasury buybacks and borrowing costs

Oracle of the Week

Juliegrace Brufke and Cory Mills

Dunce of the Week

Rick Wilson

For more prediction market news and analysis, visit eventual.news.

Fake polls, Robinhood, and Hollywood | Suzy Weiss

Wed, 19 Aug 2026 00:06:50 +0000

Alex Keeney and Brian Golden break down the return of fake polling as a prediction market risk, Florida election markets around Byron Donalds, James Fishback, and Cory Mills, and what traders should watch as political markets become more vulnerable to manipulation.

Then Luke Kawa joins to discuss Robinhood’s prediction market boom, retail trading and WallStreetBets, AI capex and tech debt, Anthropic and OpenAI IPO odds, GPU prices, Fed markets, and whether markets are overreacting to Iran War headlines.

Finally, Suzy Weiss of The Free Press kicks off Eventual’s pop culture coverage with Time Person of the Year, Oscars and Best Picture markets, Gen Z politics, AI anxiety, youth culture, and what prediction markets can reveal about where culture is headed.

Guests: Luke Kawa (Sherwood News); Suzy Weiss (The Free Press)
Hosts: Alex Keeney and Brian Golden
More prediction market news and analysis at eventual.news.

Polls vs. prediction marks | Lakshya Jain

alex@eventual.news (Alex Keeney, Domer, Lakshya Jain) — Thu, 13 Aug 2026 23:28:01 +0000

Welcome to Eventual, your OG prediction market show. Today: Marco Rubio vs. AOC in the 2028 nomination markets, inflation and Fed rate odds, the Lakers sale, the Clacton by-election, and a special election forecasting conversation with Lakshya Jain and Domer.

Alex Keeney and Domer break down the latest market action, including how traders are reacting to inflation data, what to watch in Clacton, and why Rubio’s and AOC’s 2028 odds are moving. Then, in Would You Rather?, they compare holding Rubio in the Republican nominee market with AOC in the Democratic nominee market.

Lakshya Jain of The Argument and Split Ticket joins Domer to unpack a wild primary night in Wisconsin, South Carolina, and Minnesota. They discuss polls vs. prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, election models, market overreactions to early vote drops, and when qualitative information can outperform quantitative forecasts.

Plus: Nate Silver’s new model, House and Senate forecasts, gerrymandering, jungle primaries, key races and scandal markets, Democratic socialists vs. moderates, and the strengths and limits of prediction markets as forecasting tools.

Francesca Hong, Anthropic IPO, and July inflation | Jon Turek

Wed, 12 Aug 2026 01:39:22 +0000

Today on the show: AI bubble trouble, inflation week, Wisconsin and South Carolina primary night, Fed rate odds, and Jon Turek of JST Advisors joins to talk Anthropic, macro markets, prediction market distributions, and the future of the AI boom. Alex Keeney and Brian Golden break down the biggest markets moving right now.

First: inflation. With the July inflation report coming next week, oil-price pressure from the Iran conflict, an ugly jobs report, and renewed bond-market anxiety, traders are pricing what comes next for the Federal Reserve. Will inflation stay cool? Will the Fed hike in September? And is the 2026 rate-hike market mispriced?

Then: elections. Wisconsin voters head to the polls with Francesca Hong a heavy favorite in the Democratic governor primary. Alex and Brian examine whether 95-cent “yes” shares are still tradable, whether margin markets are too expensive, and whether text-to-web polling is breaking down in high-turnout Democratic primaries.

In South Carolina, a special Republican Senate primary triggered by Lindsey Graham’s sudden death has become a volatile market. Darline Graham, Ralph Norman, and Russell Fry are all in the mix, with polling uncertainty, runoff risk, and second-place markets creating a complicated trade setup.

Plus: Nate Silver’s new model, football almost being back, the Eventual newsletter, 5 Chart Friday, the Smart Money Tracker, Seth Moulton as Pick of the Week, and Best First Trade.

Finally, Jon Turek, founder of JST Advisors and contributor to the Polymarket Oracle newsletter, joins Eventual for a deep dive on AI, Anthropic, OpenAI, macro risk, and political markets. Jon explains why AI capex is entering a new phase, how to think about the “AI bubble burst” market, why Anthropic’s valuation curve may be too narrow, and how prediction markets can price outcomes traditional financial markets cannot. He also discusses open-source AI, Moonshot’s Kimi models, xAI, Alibaba, model-ranking markets, Christine Lagarde and the ECB, France’s 2027 presidential election, Marine Le Pen, and political risk in Israel.

Topics include: AI bubble markets; Anthropic valuation and IPO odds; OpenAI, Google, xAI, Moonshot, Kimi, and Alibaba; AI capex and free cash flow; open-source AI; July CPI and inflation markets; Federal Reserve rate-hike odds; bond yields, oil, and Iran War inflation risk; Wisconsin’s Democratic governor primary; Francesca Hong and David Crowley; polling misses; South Carolina’s Republican Senate primary; Darline Graham, Ralph Norman, and Russell Fry; runoff markets; Nate Silver’s model; Seth Moulton vs. Ed Markey; Christine Lagarde and the ECB; France’s 2027 election; Marine Le Pen; and Israel election markets.

Guest: Jon Turek — Founder, JST Advisors
Hosted by: Alex Keeney and Brian Golden

For more prediction market news and analysis, visit eventual.news.

Iran, weed, and crypto | Natalie Fertig

alex@eventual.news (Alex Keeney) — Fri, 7 Aug 2026 00:49:48 +0000

Iran diplomacy may be gaining momentum, the Strait of Hormuz could be headed toward a new security arrangement, and the Senate’s path to passing major crypto legislation is looking increasingly uncertain.

Alex Keeney and Domer break down the prediction markets around Rep. Max Miller’s political future, an Israel–Iran ceasefire, U.S.–Iran negotiations, Hormuz traffic, Houthi escalation, and the odds of regime change in Iran. They also examine the latest backlash facing prediction markets after Kalshi drew criticism for contracts tied to cancer trials and regulatory decisions.

Rashan Colbert joins the show to assess the CLARITY Act and whether the landmark crypto market-structure bill has any realistic path through a chaotic Senate before recess.

Finally, cannabis policy reporter Natalie Fertig explains the renewed push to reschedule marijuana, the slow-moving DEA and DOJ process, the difference between Schedule I and Schedule III, and what a change in federal policy could mean for cannabis businesses, research, patients, taxes, and state legalization efforts.

A big finale in Michigan + the Latino midterm vote | Mike Madrid

Wed, 5 Aug 2026 03:56:06 +0000

Michigan, Midterms, and the Latino Swing Vote

Alex Keeney and Gaetan Dugas discuss the prediction markets around Iran, Todd Blanche’s confirmation, Max Miller’s reelection campaign, and upcoming elections in Michigan and Minnesota.

Logan Phillips of Race to the White House breaks down Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary and the general election outlook.

Mike Madrid, author of The Latino Century, explains why Latino voters are moving away from both parties—and how that could affect the 2026 midterms.

Timestamps

00:00 — Introduction
01:47 — Texas politics and the Clarity Act
05:03 — Iran and the Strait of Hormuz
08:08 — Todd Blanche’s confirmation
14:14 — Markwayne Mullin and Max Miller
21:36 — Michigan primary with Logan Phillips
28:52 — Michigan House primaries
31:08 — Michigan’s general election
37:10 — Minnesota’s upcoming primaries
42:49 — Mike Madrid on Latino voters
56:15 — Latino turnout in the midterms
01:00:06 — Texas and working-class voters
01:09:22 — Where polling may be wrong
01:14:26 — Looking ahead to 2028
01:17:49 — Who will win the Senate?

Guests

Logan Phillips
Founder of Race to the White House
Follow: @LoganR2WH

Mike Madrid
Author of The Latino Century and publisher of The Great Transformation on Substack

Polymarket is a sponsor of this podcast. For Polymarket.us users:

18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Trump loses his situational awareness | Domer

alex@eventual.news (Alex Keeney, Domer, Doug Campbell, Scottilicious) — Fri, 31 Jul 2026 13:21:35 +0000

Alex Keeney and Domer break down a chaotic week across politics, crypto, and geopolitics, joined by trader Scott Alicious (David Bensousan) for a rapid-fire top-five trades segment, and Doug Campbell for a deep dive on Iran.

Markets & topics discussed:

(00:00) Cold open — Fed decision, Iran war, the Clarity Act, Todd Blanche's AG nomination, and Leopold Aschenbrenner's blown-out net worth
(01:39) Fed September meeting odds — hold vs. 25bps hike, and the Citadel conspiracy theory behind the AI-stock selloff
(03:20) Paramount–Warner Bros. Discovery merger victory lap
(03:45) Leopold Aschenbrenner's situational-awareness fund getting wrecked
(05:03) South Carolina Senate — Darlene Graham craters in the polls, Domer's No position pays off
(06:19) The Iran war reignites — Washington Post reporting on U.S. weapons stockpiles, new disapproval polling, and pricing the invasion market
(09:18) The Clarity Act — crypto's market-structure bill loses steam as ethics provisions collide with Trump's own crypto holdings
(14:47) Todd Blanche's AG nomination stalls in the Senate over Cornyn and Tillis; the case for buying Cornyn "yes" shares below market
Scott Alicious's Top 5 Trades: Democrats to win the House; No on a U.S.–Iran nuclear deal; John James for Michigan governor; Netanyahu's staying power in Israel; Ossoff and Becerra as safe holds
Doug Campbell on Iran — why the invasion market is a buy-sell-repeat trade, not a pure "no," the ambiguity over the Strait of Hormuz, and how this fight doubles as an early skirmish for the GOP's 2028 Rubio-vs-Vance lane

Trade these and more on polymarket.us.

Polymarket US disclosure:18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky — 100% loss can occur. See Polymarket's terms of service for more information. The Polymarket US app serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing operation.Hosts and guests may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this newsletter. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this newsletter represent the hosts and guests' analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this newsletter should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

Midterms countdown & the open source AI invasion

Wed, 29 Jul 2026 05:03:28 +0000

Today on the show: it’s officially under 100 days until the 2026 midterms, and both parties are panicking. Republicans are facing enthusiasm problems, Democrats are dealing with money trouble and internal drama, and prediction markets are trying to price the chaos.

Alex Keeney and Brian Golden break down the latest midterm markets, including control of the House and Senate, Democratic and Republican morale, Michigan’s Senate primary, the Democratic primary calendar, Fed day, Daniel Lurie, Waymo, crypto policy, and how campaigns are starting to think about prediction markets.

Then Eric Wilson joins Eventual to discuss campaigns, political technology, GOP strategy, and how prediction markets could become part of modern campaign strategy.

Andrew Prokop also joins to talk about Wisconsin’s warning that election bettors could risk their right to vote, how regulators are approaching Kalshi and prediction markets, and whether the political class understands what these markets actually are.

Finally, Nihal Krishan joins for a deep dive on Chinese open-source AI, the White House debate over banning Chinese AI models, Silicon Valley’s split over open-source AI, and whether prediction markets are asking the right questions about the future of artificial intelligence.

Kevin Warsh's fakeout

alex@eventual.news (Alex Keeney, Pratik Chougule, Roman Terekh) — Fri, 24 Jul 2026 04:36:42 +0000

Today on the show: the Federal Reserve heads into one of its most unpredictable meetings in years, Polymarket traders face massive rate-decision exposure, Marine Le Pen is suddenly back in the French presidential mix, and Roman Terekh from Bravado joins to break down five prediction market shockers.

Alex Keeney and Pratik Chougule dig into the Fed’s July rate decision market, where nearly $90 million in volume has turned next week’s meeting into what Alex calls “the greatest liquidation event since Bob’s Furniture’s Fourth of July sale.” With cooler inflation, renewed Middle East conflict, energy-price jitters, and a new Fed chair in Kevin Warsh, traders are asking whether “no rate change” is a buying opportunity — or whether the market is finally pricing in a real hawkish turn.

Then: WTF France? Marine Le Pen’s odds have surged after a court lifted her ban from running for president, even as an electronic monitoring tag could complicate her campaign. Is this a buy, sell, or hold moment for traders looking at the 2027 French election? Plus, Oracle of the Week and a special segment with Roman from Bravado on prediction market behavior: misleading PnLs, how long trading accounts survive, concentration of wealth, whale signal vs. retail signal, and how long it takes to become a prediction market black belt.

Chinese AI, Michigan tests Dems & Trump disses Canada

Tue, 21 Jul 2026 07:00:00 +0000

Today on the show: World Cup diplomacy gets weird, Trump looks past Canada and Mexico, Michigan Democrats spiral into a brutal Senate primary, Maine picks its Graham Platner replacement, and Chinese AI sends traders hunting for signal. Alex Keeney and Brian Golden break down the latest prediction market action across politics, AI, trade, Congress, and the 2026 midterms — including USMCA extension odds, Michigan Senate primary markets, Maine Senate fallout, and Troy Jackson’s rise.

Then Peter Wildeford, head of policy at the AI Policy Network and a longtime prediction market forecaster, joins Eventual for a deep dive on Chinese AI, Moonshot’s Kimi 3, whether the AI bubble is at risk, what Washington actually understands about artificial intelligence, and why data centers are becoming one of the next major fronts in American politics.

Guest: Peter Wildeford — Head of Policy, AI Policy Network Follow Peter Wildeford: X: @PeterWildeford Substack: blog.peterwildeford.com

Hosted by: Alex Keeney & Brian Golden

For more prediction market news and analysis, visit eventual.news.

Paramount's Merger Impossible | Rich Greenfield

alex@eventual.news (Alex Keeney, Rich Greenfield) — Thu, 16 Jul 2026 05:15:06 +0000

David Ellison's high-stakes bid to merge Paramount with Warner Bros Discovery is hitting a wall — and it's not the kind of wall Hollywood is used to. California Attorney General Rob Bonta and a coalition of Democratic state AGs are fighting to block the deal, setting up a courtroom showdown with massive implications for the future of media and tech. Alex Keeney from Eventual and Rich Greenfield dig into the legal battle, the political motivations behind it, and what prediction markets are already signaling about the merger's odds. Tune in for the latest on the Paramount-Warner Bros Discovery merger fight, the blue-state AG coalition trying to stop it, and what the smart money on Polymarket says about where this heads next. 🔗 Trade the outcome yourself at polymarket.us

Is The Odyssey too woke? | Sonny Bunch

alex@eventual.news (Alex Keeney, Brian Golden, Alex Asdourean, Sonny Bunch) — Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:33:01 +0000

The Bulwark's Sonny Bunch joins to break down the backlash to Nolan's The Odyssey, whether online outrage predicts box office, and a Best Picture lightning round (Obsession, Project Hail Mary, Michael, The Invite, Fjord). Plus: Alex and Brian trade Congress's "nothing ever happens" bet, an inflation surprise scrambling the Fed outlook, fading Mbappé for the golden ball, and Alex's Susan Collins short in Maine.

Hosts and guests may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed. Views expressed are for informational purposes only and not investment or trading advice.

Democrats' Maine Mess | Domer & David DesRosiers

alex@eventual.news (Domer, Alex Keeney, William Kedjanyi, David DesRosiers) — Fri, 10 Jul 2026 02:17:39 +0000

Domer & Alex Keeney breaks down the latest in politics, prediction markets, and election odds — from Graham Platner dropping out in Maine to Nigel Farage facing Count Binface in the world’s dumbest by-election.

Then David DesRosiers, publisher of RealClearPolitics and host of Get Real, joins Eventual to talk about polling, Polymarket, prediction markets, political science, the future of election forecasting, the 2026 midterms, Democratic Socialists in primaries, big-city politics, gender polarization, and what Republicans and Democrats can learn from each other.

Topics include:

Graham Platner drops out of the Maine Senate race

Maine Democrats scramble to pick a replacement nominee

Troy Jackson, Shenna Bellows, Nirav Shah, Jordan Wood, and Dan Kleban

Maine Senate election odds and 2026 Senate control

Nigel Farage, Reform UK, and Count Binface

The UK’s strangest by-election

RealClearPolitics adding Polymarket odds

Polling averages vs. prediction markets

Why prediction markets matter for political analysis

The future of election forecasting after 538

House and Senate control markets

DSA-aligned candidates in Democratic primaries

Urban decline, migration, and big-city politics

Young men, gender polarization, and the Trump coalition

What the GOP and Democrats can learn from each other

Guest:

David DesRosiers — Publisher, RealClearPolitics

Trading Graham Platner's downfall | Curt Mills + Iran

alex@eventual.news (Curt Mills, Alex Keeney, Brian Golden) — Wed, 8 Jul 2026 14:45:25 +0000

Alex Keeney and Brian take on a packed show: the USMNT’s latest collapse, Graham Platner’s implosion in Maine, what it means for Democrats’ Senate hopes in 2026, and the prediction markets moving around Senate control. Then, Curt Mills, executive director of The American Conservative, joins Eventual for a wide-ranging conversation on Trump’s Iran options, the odds of a nuclear deal, uranium enrichment, the Strait of Hormuz, MAGA foreign policy, China, AI regulation, data centers, and the early 2028 presidential field.

Also on the show: what we’re watching this week, Congress doing nothing, inflation, Odd Lots, Neera Tanden, and whether Britain has gone bonkers again.

Topics include: USMNT fallout Graham Platner and the Maine Senate race Democrats’ 2026 Senate path Susan Collins and Senate control markets Trades to watch this week Curt Mills on Iran, Trump, and foreign policy Iran nuclear deal prediction markets China, AI, and data center politics JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Gavin Newsom, and AOC in 2028 Oracle of the Week

Guest: Curt Mills — Executive Director, The American Conservative

Follow Curt Mills: https://x.com/CurtMills F

ollow Joe Weisenthal: https://x.com/TheStalwart

Follow Neera Tanden: https://x.com/neeratanden/status/2071...

Sponsored segment: Includes a Polymarket ad read.

Disclaimer: Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this stream should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk, and viewers are responsible for complying with all applicable laws and platform rules in their jurisdiction. Like, subscribe, and turn on notifications for more politics, markets, and probability.

3 World Cup trades + AI backlash in Ohio

alex@eventual.news (Alex Keeney, Andrew Tobias, Doug Campbell) — Thu, 2 Jul 2026 14:28:50 +0000

Alex Keeney is joined by Doug Campbell for a World Cup and politics-heavy episode of Eventual.

First, Alex and Doug break down the World Cup through a prediction-market lens, focusing on home-field advantage, hostile road environments, altitude, and how those factors can shape knockout-stage expectations. Doug explains why home teams and home-continent teams may be undervalued, why older underdog-betting theories may not be working in recent knockout rounds, and where he sees value across World Cup markets.

Then they turn to the latest New York Times/Siena battleground Senate polls. The numbers look rougher for Democrats in several key races, but Doug argues one poll should not radically change the broader picture. Alex and Doug discuss whether Democrats are still a buy, why polling error matters months before Election Day, and how a small miss could swing multiple Senate seats in either direction.

Plus: Nate Silver’s World Cup model gets a shoutout, Barnard Bulletin earns Oracle of the Week, and Alex tees up the coming conversation with Andrew Tobias on Ohio politics, AI data centers, and the Sherrod Brown/John Husted race.

The next battle for the Democratic Party

alex@eventual.news (Alex Keeney, Seth Masket, Brian Golden) — Tue, 30 Jun 2026 12:35:07 +0000

Colorado usually is not the center of national political attention anymore, but primary day has put the state back in the spotlight. Seth Masket joins Eventual to unpack two high-attention Democratic contests: Diana DeGette's primary challenge in Denver and Michael Bennet's run for governor against Phil Weiser. The conversation looks at why prediction markets are skeptical of the incumbents, why polling is so thin, and what early ballot returns can and cannot tell us. Masket explains why Colorado's shift from swing state to reliably blue state has made Democratic primaries the more meaningful arena for governance. A major theme is anti-establishment energy inside the Democratic Party. Some voters are not necessarily demanding a different policy platform; they are demanding a different posture toward Trump and national politics.

The episode also explores whether the rise of DSA-style and populist Democratic campaigns means class politics is becoming a more central frame in the party. Co-host Brian Golden also joins to talk about the latest news from Iran and why markets are being cautious reacting, as well as who the top predictors this week were worldwide. Key topics: Colorado primary day Diana DeGette vs. Melat Kiros and Wanda James Michael Bennet vs. Phil Weiser Prediction markets and lightly polled races Why unaffiliated voters may choose Democratic primaries Anti-establishment energy inside the Democratic Party Trump as the organizing issue for both parties Populism, class politics, and the future of Democratic coalitions.

Are Democrats about to blow the midterms?

alex@eventual.news (Zack Stanton, Alex Keeney, Domer) — Thu, 25 Jun 2026 15:36:04 +0000

The progressive insurgency inside the Democratic Party isn't slowing down — and prediction markets are starting to price it in. This week on Eventual, world leading trader Domer breaks down how to trade the DSA wave reshaping deep-blue districts, eight years after AOC's first upset rewrote the rules.

We dig into AOC's presidential market — is she a real contender or a long-shot story? Then we talk Chuck Schumer: what does his political future actually look like, and why aren't there more markets on it?

From there, we go deep on Michigan with Zack Stanton of MS NOW. Abdul El-Sayed is surging in the Democratic Senate primary ahead of the August 4th vote, and the markets have him heavy favorite over Rep. Haley Stevens. Is that price right? And if El-Sayed wins, does he hand the seat to Mike Rogers in November?

Plus: California's billionaire wealth tax is sitting at 65% odds to make the ballot — and Gavin Newsom is quietly trying to kill it before the June 25th certification deadline. We debate whether to fade or follow that number.

And Mark Zuckerberg is reportedly building a prediction markets app. What does that mean for Polymarket, Kalshi, and the space overall?

Trump's nuclear red lines + the AI election | Rachael Bade

Tue, 23 Jun 2026 18:31:07 +0000

ice President JD Vance is everywhere selling an Iran framework. But Rachael Bade — who writes The Inner Circle on Substack and co-hosts The Huddle — says the hardest sticking points haven't been touched yet. Can Vance and Iran strike a deal that Trump and Congress will approve? Also this week: political forecaster Logan Phillips thinks prediction markets have the New York AI primary completely backwards. OpenAI money is flooding the race to stop assemblyman Alex Bores — but Logan's model has Bores is favored. Brian Golden (aka Prince Howl, #1 econ trader on Kalshi) explains why World Cup group winners are dramatically underpriced in the knockout round — and why 11-and-1 is sitting at 12 cents. Plus: California's billionaire tax showdown, the Thune-Trump rift, and a very short-term bond play on the housing bill. Eventual is powered by Polymarket — the world's largest prediction market, now relaunched in the US. Sign up at polymarket.us

Trump crashes FIFA. Iran crashes Trump.

Thu, 18 Jun 2026 15:45:41 +0000

Donald Trump brought the World Cup to America. Now he's trying to bring home an Iran nuclear deal — and prediction markets think the mullahs are winning. PhD economist and Polymarket veteran Doug Campbell joins to find the alpha in the wreckage.

The Ringer's Anthony Dabbundo talks the World Cup — the teams, the bets, and whether Trump is about to make the biggest soccer tournament in history about himself.

And Georgia just handed traders a gift. Jon Ossoff has his opponent. Doug explains why it might be the best bond on the board right now.

Day One: Meet the prediction market sharps

alex@eventual.news (Alex Keeney, Doug Campbell, William Kedjanyi, Gaeten Dugas) — Thu, 4 Jun 2026 07:00:00 +0000

Introducing Eventual, a show built by and for prediction market traders. This channel will be focused on helping existing traders up their game, and helping curious professionals extract valuable signal from the markets.

In Episode 1, host Alex Keeney introduces the founding crew: the traders, oddsmakers, and analysts at the center of Eventual's coverage. What they're watching, what they're trading, and what they're seeing that you probably aren't yet.

Topics include:

-- Bad Bunny, Drake, Spotify Wrapped

-- Texas Senate, Ken Paxton

-- Keir Starmer, Andy Burnham, UK politics

-- AOC, JD Vance, 2028 presidential race

-- Gen Z, gender polarizatio

S1E1. You were here from the start.

Brought to you by Polymarket — thousands of markets on politics, economics, technology, and more. Visit polymarket.com.

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