Super-Macro Management

Warsh just backed himself into a corner

supermacromanagement@launchpodstudios.com (Super-Macro Management) — Tue, 1 Sep 2026 09:03:15 +0000

US interest costs have quietly climbed to around 18% of tax revenues, up from about 5% not long ago. At Jackson Hole, Fed chair Kevin Warsh delivered what looked like a near 180 degree hawkish pivot from his July meeting, sending the two year yield up 11 basis points in a day. The long end barely moved.

Jonny thinks the pivot has less to do with inflation than pressure from the Treasury. Scott Bessent has been doubling bond buybacks and hinting at drawing on the $950 billion TGA to support long dated debt, and the two men meet weekly. A short end hike buys Bessent room to defend the long end without spending the Treasury's own firepower.

Elvis sits down with veteran macro trader Jonny Matthews, 25 years of institutional experience at Brevan Howard and Citigroup, to unpack why the long end didn't budge despite the hawkish pivot, what a September hike really says about debt sustainability, and why he still likes gold and short bonds as the trade.

In this episode:
Warsh's near 180 degree reversal, from downplaying inflation in July to calling 2% a "firm fixed target" at Jackson Hole
The two year yield jumping 11 basis points on the day, while the long end stayed exactly where it was
Fed funds futures pricing close to 90% odds of a September hike, up from around 60% before the speech
Why Jonny expects Friday's payrolls to beat the 55,000 consensus, after a seasonal 50,000 drop in government jobs last month
The 30 year Treasury yield at 5.25%, driven mostly by rising real yields rather than inflation
Break even inflation at 2.4%, up from a well anchored 2%, a sign of fiscal risk over price risk
Why shifting issuance to the short end risks repeating what happened in Turkey's bond market
Interest costs near 18% of tax revenues, and why debt sustainability is now a G7 wide problem, not just a US one

Jonny has spent 25 years trading macro at the highest institutional level. This is not retail speculation or headline chasing. It is rigorous, independent analysis from someone who has sat at the table.

New to SuperMacro?
Get 30 days of our Daily Note entirely free at www.super-macro.com

0:00 Intro: did Warsh just kill the debasement trade
0:50 Warsh's hawkish pivot at Jackson Hole, and the 180 from July
1:53 Bessent's TGA hint, the doubled buybacks, and mixed signals from the Fed
3:17 The political trade off: a short end hike to save the long end
3:54 Line by line: what changed between July and Jackson Hole
6:04 Why short term rates are a blunter tool than they used to be
7:18 The labour market case: stable claims and the high frequency data
9:19 Why Jonny expects Friday's payrolls to beat the 55,000 consensus
11:12 The committee split, and fed funds futures pricing near 90% odds of a hike
13:36 December's dot dispersion, and whether it's one hike or two
14:24 Can the economy handle a 50 basis point hike
16:17 Why hiking still won't bring the long end down
17:01 The real driver of long yields: debt sustainability, not inflation
18:11 Break even inflation at 2.4%, and the purchasing power problem
21:27 Shifting issuance to the short end, and what happened when Turkey tried it
23:44 The chart showing fed funds and the 10 year yield decoupling
24:40 Borrower or lender: the devaluation bet, and the trade Jonny holds
28:14 Wrap up: interest costs at 18% of tax revenues, and the G7 wide problem

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Bessent’s Intervention Arsenal Lacks Firepower

supermacromanagement@launchpodstudios.com (Super-Macro Management) — Tue, 25 Aug 2026 11:23:57 +0000

The US national debt passed $40 trillion last week. Scott Bessent's response was to double the Treasury's bond buybacks, from $2 billion a time to $4 billion. Against $5.6 trillion of debt maturing in the 10 to 30 year bucket alone, that is roughly $100 billion a year, a fraction of what is actually coming due. Elsewhere, Bessent has sold euros to buy yen to stop Japan selling Treasuries, tapped the TGA to help fund the buybacks, and signalled in the August refunding statement that future issuance will lean towards bills rather than long bonds. Each move buys time. None of them fixes the underlying arithmetic. Elvis sits down with veteran macro trader Jonny Matthews, 25 years of institutional experience at Brevan Howard and Citigroup, to unpack why Bessent's interventions are too small to move the market, what shifting issuance to the short end actually risks, and why he still expects yields to go higher. In this episode: The $40 trillion debt milestone, and why Bessent's "publicly traded" caveat is disingenuous Treasury buybacks doubling to $4 billion a time, still a drop in the ocean against $5.6 trillion maturing in the 10 to 30 year bucket The TGA explained: the Treasury's checking account at the Fed, currently around $1 trillion Why the yen intervention and swap facility increase is not QE, whatever it looks like The August refunding statement's hint that long bond issuance is capped, with funding shifting to the short end Fiscal dominance, and how short dated debt makes the Treasury hostage to the Fed's rate decisions Mandatory spending rising from 14.2% to 15.5% of GDP by 2036, with interest expense following from 3.3% to 4.6% The 30 year Treasury yield at 5.24%, and why the Volcker disinflation shows yields can stay high long after inflation falls Jonny has spent 25 years trading macro at the highest institutional level. This is not retail speculation or headline chasing. It is rigorous, independent analysis from someone who has sat at the table. New to SuperMacro? Get 30 days of our Daily Note entirely free at www.super-macro.com 0:00 Intro: last week's Treasury sell-off and the $40 trillion debt milestone 1:23 Bessent's response, and why it's more smoke and mirrors 2:36 Clip: Bessent on the $40 trillion mark, and why "publicly traded" debt is misleading 5:11 US debt to GDP against Italy and Japan 6:27 Mandatory spending and interest costs rising to 2036 7:42 The yen intervention and the swap facility 8:13 Treasury buybacks: $4 billion a time against $5.6 trillion maturing 10:12 The TGA explained 12:31 Shifting issuance to the short end, and the refunding statement's hidden signal 14:17 Where this goes wrong: debt monetisation and fiscal dominance 16:16 Yield curve control despite a strong economy 18:32 Other levers: bank regulation, the GSEs, and shrinking foreign demand 20:20 Is the dollar's reserve status in question 21:36 A crowded field: global sovereign yields at multi-year highs 23:14 Midterms, entitlement reform, and the UK's Liz Truss playbook 24:50 30 year yields against CPI since Volcker 26:49 Can the US afford to stay in Iran, or walk away 29:02 Wrap up and where to find the Daily Note Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Sovereign Bonds Can't Catch a Break

supermacromanagement@launchpodstudios.com (Super-Macro Management) — Tue, 18 Aug 2026 12:58:28 +0000

The data all pointed one way last week. Payrolls missed, CPI and PPI came in benign, retail sales underwhelmed across every single aggregate. Sovereign bonds caught a bid, then sold off almost immediately. When bonds cannot rally on their own good news, the problem is not the data.

The US interest bill has now overtaken the defence bill. Niall Ferguson's law says any great power that spends more on debt servicing than defence risks ceasing to be a great power, and the US is running a deficit of 5.5 to 6% at full employment with unemployment at 4.1%. There is no reform coming, in any G7 country, because nobody is going to vote for it.

Elvis sits down with veteran macro trader Jonny Matthews, 25 years of institutional experience at Brevan Howard and Citigroup, to work through why the long end sold off into weak data, what the deficit does when the economy finally turns, and why he is still short treasuries.

In this episode:

Why sovereign bonds sold off into a weak payrolls print, benign inflation and soft retail sales

G7 debt to GDP ratios, and the US on track to pass Italy from over 120%

Japan cutting 220% to 200% with no reform at all, just nominal GDP running above the interest rate

A 6% deficit at full employment, and where it goes in even a mild recession

Ferguson's law: the interest bill has passed the defence bill, and neither one is coming down

AI capex arriving in the bond market as a new and very large competing issuer

Ten years of long dated treasury total return below zero while CPI rose 40 to 45%, and what that does to the 60/40

Why TIPS at 2.4% on the ten year and 3% on the thirty look like the better bet

4.5% on the ten year and 5% on the thirty now acting as a floor rather than a ceiling

New to SuperMacro?

Get 30 days of our Daily Note entirely free at www.super-macro.com

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Yen Intervention Is Smoke and Mirrors

supermacromanagement@launchpodstudios.com (Super-Macro Management) — Wed, 12 Aug 2026 12:13:38 +0000

US payrolls fell by 23,000 in the latest print, with over 100,000 of downward revisions to the previous two months — and yet Treasury yields climbed. When bond markets rally on bad news and then give it all back, something deeper is going on.

Meanwhile, the much-publicised coordinated intervention to support the Japanese yen — complete with a conveniently photographed "buy yen" note on the Treasury Secretary's desk — may be far less than it appears. And with Japanese government bond yields hitting two-decade highs, the pressure on Tokyo is building fast.

Elvis sits down with veteran macro trader Jonny Matthews — 25 years of institutional experience at Brevan Howard and Citigroup — to unpack why the Treasury market shrugged off a weak jobs report, what the US–Japan yen intervention is really designed to achieve, and why the long end of the bond market in both countries is flashing red.

In this episode:

Why Treasury yields rose despite a negative payrolls print — and what a shrinking labour supply means for wages and inflation

The unemployment rate at a 13-month low of 4.1% even as jobs are lost — the retiring boomers and net-zero migration story the headlines miss

Bessent's "whatever it takes" moment: the leaked to-do list, the Exchange Stabilization Fund, and why this intervention is more theatre than firepower

Japan's high nominal GDP playbook — inflating away a 200% debt-to-GDP ratio while JGB yields hit two-decade highs — and the 1992 sterling lesson for anyone defending a currency

Why 4.5% on the 10-year and 5% on the 30-year now look like floors rather than ceilings — and the asymmetric risk around this week's CPI print ahead of September's Fed meeting

New to SuperMacro?

Get 30 days of our Daily Note entirely free at www.super-macro.com

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Navigating the Financial Storm: Insights on the S&P and Economic Data

supermacromanagement@launchpodstudios.com (Super-Macro Management) — Fri, 11 Apr 2025 14:30:36 +0000

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Tariffs and Their Impact: A Deep Dive into Economic Uncertainty

supermacromanagement@launchpodstudios.com (Super-Macro Management) — Fri, 14 Mar 2025 17:26:42 +0000

In this episode of the Super Macro podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews delve into the pressing topic of tariffs and their impact on the economy. Jonny, who has been skeptical about the likelihood of a recession, discusses how current tariff policies are slowing growth, increasing prices, and disrupting global supply chains. The episode highlights the significant decline in business and consumer confidence, with companies putting hiring and capital expenditure plans on hold due to uncertainty. Jonny also emphasises the potential negative effects on household wealth and consumer spending if the stock market continues to decline. The conversation reveals that the real concern for CEOs may not just be the tariffs themselves but the unpredictability and abrupt changes in policy that could disrupt long-term business strategies. Tune in for an insightful analysis of the current economic climate and what it means for the future. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Navigating 2025: Economic Insights and Market Predictions | Episode 11

supermacromanagement@launchpodstudios.com (Super-Macro Management) — Wed, 22 Jan 2025 14:28:37 +0000

In this episode of the Super Macro podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews return after a brief hiatus to discuss economic projections for 2025. Johnny emphasises his confidence in the economy for the first half of the year, highlighting strong household and corporate balance sheets, alongside a robust job market. The conversation also touches on Johnny's successful year managing a portfolio for Fortum Capital, crediting his research and content creation for the impressive returns. Listeners are invited to subscribe to the Super Macro newsletter for insights and analysis, with a special offer for a free one-month trial. The episode sets the stage for future discussions, including the potential impact of political changes on the economy. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Resilient US Economy: Consumer Spending and Corporate Profits | Episode 10

supermacromanagement@launchpodstudios.com (Super-Macro Management) — Thu, 10 Oct 2024 12:24:24 +0000

In this episode of the Super Macro podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews dive into the recent economic performance of Ireland, discussing the optimistic outlook for the third quarter. Jonny highlights strong consumer spending trends, projecting a 3% growth rate and an overall GDP growth of around 2.5% for the quarter. They address previous concerns about consumers depleting their savings, revealing new revisions to national accounts that indicate higher household income than previously estimated. Jonny emphasizes the importance of these insights for understanding the current economic landscape and future expectations. Tune in for an in-depth analysis of these trends and their implications for the economy.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Defending the No-Recession Stance - Episode 9

supermacromanagement@launchpodstudios.com (Super-Macro Management) — Thu, 26 Sep 2024 11:00:00 +0000

In this episode of the Super Macro podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews delve into the current market dynamics and the prevailing economic outlook. Jonny stands firm in his belief that a recession is unlikely, despite increasing skepticism in the market. He emphasizes the importance of maintaining a non-consensus view to capitalize on investment opportunities. The discussion shifts to the Federal Reserve's recent actions, particularly focusing on the dovish stance reflected in the changes in the two-year yield around FOMC meetings since March 2022. Jonny presents a detailed analysis of the trends in interest rates, illustrating how the Fed's projections and actions have influenced market reactions. Tune in for valuable insights on navigating the complexities of today's economic landscape.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

What Recession?!! - Episode 8

supermacromanagement@launchpodstudios.com (Super-Macro Management) — Mon, 16 Sep 2024 10:48:14 +0000

In this episode of the Super Macro Podcast, hosts Jonny Matthews and Elvis delve into the current market dynamics and the looming recession narrative. Jonny shares insights on the disparity between market pricing and economic realities, particularly focusing on the rates market. He highlights that the market is pricing in approximately 275 basis points of cuts over the next 15 months, which he argues signals a deep recession—a scenario he believes is unlikely based on current economic conditions. The discussion emphasizes the differences between today's corporate sector and that of the past, noting that companies are now less leveraged than during the 2007-2008 financial crisis. Jonny maintains his conviction that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates as drastically as the market anticipates, presenting a contrarian viewpoint that challenges prevailing market sentiments. Tune in for an engaging analysis that questions the market's recession pricing and explores the broader economic context.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Financial Conditions and Market Reactions: A Conversation with Andy Constan - Episode 7

supermacromanagement@launchpodstudios.com (Super-Macro Management) — Thu, 11 Jul 2024 19:59:03 +0000

In this episode, Jonny Matthews and Elvis discuss the recent weak CPI print and its implications on the economy. They analyze the job market, highlighting the contrast between cyclical and non-cyclical sectors. Johnny emphasizes the significance of real disposable income growth and strong private sector wages. Stay tuned for a special guest, Andy Constand, joining the conversation later in the episode.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction and Welcome
00:00:11 - Discussion on the Economy and CPI Print
00:00:57 - Analysis of Payroll and Job Sectors
00:01:30 - Real Disposable Income and Consumer Spending
00:02:37 - Household Wealth and Economic Outlook
00:03:37 - Market Reactions: Bonds Up, Equities Down
00:04:13 - Johnny's Year-to-Date Performance
00:04:42 - Subscription Information for SuperMacro
00:05:09 - Introduction of Special Guest Andy Constan
00:06:10 - Andy's Market Call in October/November
00:07:04 - Treasury Issuance and Market Reactions
00:08:08 - Fed's Dovish Stance and Market Impact
00:09:51 - Financial Conditions and Equity Market
00:11:07 - Recent Economic Data and CPI Print
00:12:18 - Sector Performance and Market Rotation
00:13:14 - Economic Slowdown and Rate Cuts
00:15:02 - Potential Economic Bounce and Treasury Market Outlook
00:16:03 - Financial Conditions and Fed's Influence
00:18:01 - Household Wealth and Consumer Behavior
00:19:04 - Labor Market and Fed's Potential Rate Cuts
00:20:00 - Impact of Financial Conditions on the Economy
00:22:47 - Bonds vs. Equities Valuation
00:23:19 - Fiscal Deficit and Treasury Issuance
00:26:03 - Fed's Policy and Inflation Control
00:28:06 - Treasury's Issuance Strategy
00:30:34 - Long-term Debt Issuance Strategy
00:35:21 - Term Premium Expansion and Asset Impact
00:35:40 - Political Aspects of Treasury Issuance
00:36:07 - Andy's Favorite Rock Bands
00:37:20 - Andy's Updated Top 5 Rock Bands
00:37:50 - Where to Find Andy's Work and Subscribe

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The S&P's Resilience Amid Softening US Economic Data - Episode 6

supermacromanagement@launchpodstudios.com (Super-Macro Management) — Sun, 9 Jun 2024 07:55:01 +0000

On this episode of Super Macro, Elvis and Jonny discuss the recent subpar economic data in the United States and its implications for Fed policy. They analyze charts showing the softening data against Treasury yields and the S&P, noting the disconnect between the S&P's strong performance and weakening economic indicators. Tune in to gain insights into the economic surprise index and what this shift in data trends could mean for the future.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Joseph Wang's Take on Central Banking and Market Predictions - Episode 5

supermacromanagement@launchpodstudios.com (Super-Macro Management) — Tue, 16 Apr 2024 13:38:04 +0000

In this episode of the Super Macro Podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews are joined by special guest Joseph Wang, also known as the Fed guy. Joseph, a former senior trader on the New York Open Markets Desk, shares his insights on the evolution of the Fed, the impact of quantitative easing, and predictions for the future of the economy. The discussion covers topics such as the Fed's role in the financial system, the potential for rate cuts, and the implications of fiscal deficits on asset prices. Tune in to gain valuable insights from Joseph's expertise and stay informed about the latest trends in the financial sector.

00:16 - Introduction and Guest Introduction
00:27 - Joseph Wang's Background
01:28 - Evolution of the Federal Reserve's Role
03:29 - Central Banks and Climate Change
04:35 - Bank of England's Performance Review
05:27 - Skepticism on QE Benefits
08:04 - Impact of QE on Asset Prices
09:11 - Fed's Approach to Balance Sheet Reduction
13:43 - Treasury Buyback Operations
15:25 - Fed's Understanding of Neutral Rate
19:02 - Market Expectations for Fed Rate Cuts
23:20 - Predictions for the Year: Economy and Markets
27:07 - Gold Price Prediction and TIPS as Inflation Hedge
30:14 - Joseph's Predictions Revisited
32:43 - Performance of Johnny's Portfolio
35:17 - How to Subscribe to the Super Macro Podcast Note
36:09 - Wage Growth and Services Inflation
40:49 - SOFR Futures as a Trading Opportunity
44:14 - Closing Remarks and Future Podcast Announcements

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Analyzing the US Labor Market and Fed's Rate Cut Dilemma - Episode 4

supermacromanagement@launchpodstudios.com (Super-Macro Management) — Mon, 8 Apr 2024 17:00:00 +0000

In this episode of The Super Macro Management podcast, Elvis and Jonny Matthews dive into the US labor market and the potential for rate cuts. They analyze the recent payroll data, highlighting healthy gains in both cyclical and non-cyclical sectors. With a decrease in unemployment, an increase in average hourly earnings, and a rise in the working week, the labor market report appears strong. Jonny emphasizes the upward trend in payroll growth over the past four months, noting a recent resurgence after a brief soft patch. Tune in for an insightful discussion on the current state of the US labor market and its implications for the future.

00:00 - Introduction and US Labor Market Discussion
00:39 - Analysis of Recent Payroll Data
02:00 - Part-Time vs Full-Time Job Creation Concerns
02:36 - Dissecting Part-Time Employment Reasons
04:20 - Labor Market Tightness and Part-Time Work
07:39 - Fed's Potential Rate Cuts and Economic Data
08:58 - Diverging Opinions Among Fed Members
09:42 - Upcoming CPI Data and Inflation Trends
10:43 - Super Core CPI and Housing Market Impact
12:12 - Political Implications of Fed Decisions
13:44 - Treasury Yields and S&P Outlook
15:10 - Gold as an Investment Option
17:42 - US Dollar and Currency Debasement
18:37 - S&P Vulnerability and Rate Hikes
19:16 - Equities and Treasury Yields Correlation
22:20 - Strategies for Equity Market Protection
25:06 - Upcoming Podcast Guest Announcement
25:56 - Closing Remarks and Subscription Information

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Has the Fed Lost the Plot on Inflation? - Episode 3

supermacromanagement@launchpodstudios.com (Super-Macro Management) — Mon, 25 Mar 2024 15:24:12 +0000

In this episode of Super Macro Podcast 3, Elvis and Jonny dive into the topic of whether the Fed has lost the plot on inflation. They discuss the Fed's recent decisions, including leaving interest rates unchanged, raising inflation and growth forecasts, and the potential impact on the bond market. Jonny believes the Fed has been too soft on inflation, expressing concerns about the end of goods disinflation and the rise in services and energy costs. While he doesn't think the Fed has completely lost the plot, he questions the effectiveness of their current policy moves.

02:17 Fed's inflation target dilemma.
04:47 Powell's handling of inflation.
10:58 Wage growth predictions and indicators.
13:06 The Fed's ability to influence yields.
19:32 One or two good trades.
21:09 Industrial recovery and metal prices.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Navigating the US Market: CPI Data, Payroll Reports, and Fed Policy - Episode 2

supermacromanagement@launchpodstudios.com (Super-Macro Management) — Thu, 14 Mar 2024 18:00:00 +0000

On this episode of Supermacro, Jonny and Elvis discuss the recent developments in the US market, including the CPI data and the non-farm payroll report. Despite the unexpected CPI print and mixed payroll data, Jonny maintains his view that the easing of financial conditions is stimulating the economy in ways the Fed may not have anticipated. The episode delves into the implications of Fed policy and the overall economic outlook.

To access the SuperMacro newsletter and stay updated on economic
analysis and trade recommendations, visit SuperMacro. Subscribe for a
free trial and gain access to Johnny's expert insights and portfolio
performance updates.

Listen to the full podcast episode for in-depth analysis and valuable
market insights. Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe for more
financial discussions and investment strategies.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Unpacking the Health of the US Economy: No Recession in Sight - Episode 1

supermacromanagement@launchpodstudios.com (Super-Macro Management) — Fri, 1 Mar 2024 17:09:17 +0000

In this episode of the SuperMacro podcast, Jonny discusses the health of the US consumer and the absence of a looming recession. He delves into charts showcasing the strength of the US economy, the impact of job gains, wage growth, and household finances. Elvis and Jonny also touch on the Federal Reserve's policies, inflation, and the future of interest rates. Join them as they analyze market trends, investment strategies, and more. Don't miss out on valuable insights and trade ideas shared in this engaging discussion.

Listen to the full podcast episode for in-depth analysis and valuable
market insights. Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe for more
financial discussions and investment strategies.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.