In this episode of Investments Unplugged, hosts Kevin Headland and Macan Nia continue their timely dialogue around the geopolitical turmoil impacting today’s markets. Now entering its 40th day (at the time of this recording), the ongoing conflict in the Middle East still commands center stage, so Kevin and Macan discuss how it’s feeding through to energy prices, market volatility, and investor behavior.

They examine why markets opened 2026 “priced for perfection” (leaving little margin for error), how the current oil price shock compares with 2022’s macro environment (with important differences in inflation and interest-rate starting points), and why recent equity valuation compression—particularly in the technology sector—may be creating select opportunities for investors.
 

Key topics & insights

1. Oil: the conflict’s key transmission channel

• “Higher-for-longer” oil price risk: Even if the Middle East conflict resolves, Kevin and Macan suggest that oil prices may remain structurally higher than pre-conflict levels due to supply impairment and perhaps an ongoing geopolitical risk premium.
• Tracking evolving dynamics: These could include higher shipping insurance rates and even increased transit/toll-like costs tied to safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz—factors that can embed into oil prices beyond an immediate shock.
• Macroeconomic watchpoints: One of the critical questions still facing economists and investors alike is how higher energy prices might affect global growth rates, the likelihood of a slowdown or recession, and broader inflation levels.

2. Market volatility regime shift (not capitulation)

• More choppiness in less time: Since the Middle East conflict began, Kevin and Macan have observed a sharp rise in large daily moves by the S&P 500 Index (+/- 1% days), underscoring the reality of a more “headline-driven” market environment.
• Putting the “fear gauge” in context: While they note the VIX moving up (near ~30 at points), they emphasize that a VIX >30 is historically infrequent and that >40 has typically signaled peak fear levels, seen only in major crisis-type episodes.
• Markets reacting to ceasefire signals: They describe a “buy-the-dip” tendency where markets rally quickly on any perceived positive news, potentially reflecting underlying market resilience (but also risk if the conflict escalates from here).

3. 2022 comparisons: what’s similar vs. what’s different

• The main similarity: Today’s geopolitical tensions have pushed oil prices higher, combined with below-trend economic growth and still-sticky overall inflation.
• A key difference: The starting point for interest rates and bond yields is different now than in early 2022, which affects both bond math and the policy backdrop.
• Inflation framing (“three Cs”): Today’s inflation setup isn’t a direct replay of recent history, which was marked by multiple years of persistently elevated inflation.

4. Valuations: technology reset, select opportunities

• Technology premium compressed: Kevin and Macan highlight that the NASDAQ Composite Index’s forward price/earnings (P/E) premium vs. the S&P 500 Index has narrowed considerably, reflecting a meaningful valuation reset in recent months.
• “Better earnings for a cheaper price”: The market’s price (“P”) has come down, while earnings expectations (“E”) have been more resilient, implying that there may now be improved value and select opportunities in some areas of the market.
• Not all tech is created equal: It’s important to break the broad technology sector down into its subsectors (semis, hardware, software/services) in an effort to identify potential winners, rather than just buying tech stocks indiscriminately.

Actionable takeaways for Canadian investors

• Treat volatility as part of the process, not a trigger to abandon it: With markets potentially “priced for perfection,” geopolitical and other surprises can spur outsized moves, so portfolios should be diversified and built to withstand volatility.
• Focus on the path of oil prices (level + duration): The big risk with regard to oil prices is not necessarily a short-term (e.g., one-week) spike, but rather a more sustained rise that filters into broader inflation expectations and economic growth.
• If sitting on cash, consider staged reentry into the market: Market uncertainty and volatility can potentially be harnessed to an investor’s advantage, as they may spawn attractive opportunities to redeploy some idle cash back into the market.
• Reassess fixed income with today’s yield cushion in mind: A bond’s total return consists of both price appreciation and yield.Starting yields are higher today than in 2022, and price volatility may be offset over time by the income (yield) component.
• Selectively look for valuation-driven opportunities (especially in tech): Broad market sell-offs can sometimes leave no stocks unpunished, potentially offering opportunities to selectively buy high-quality companies at cheaper valuations.

Links & Resources

• Listen to the episode:Investments Unplugged Podcast
• Learn more about Manulife Investments:Manulife IM Canada

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For informational purposes only. This episode does not constitute investment advice. Please consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions

In this episode of Investments Unplugged, hosts Macan Nia and Kevin Headland discuss the investment implications of the Middle East conflict that began in the first quarter of 2026. Rather than forecasting geopolitical outcomes, Macan and Kevin focus on how shocks in energy-producing regions can transmit quickly into oil and natural gas prices, consumer costs, inflation expectations, and market volatility. 

The discussion is framed around: 

• The context of today’s macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop
• Historical lessons from past geopolitical events (“disruptive” vs. “destructive”)
• Key factors to watch amid the current conflict , particularly the Strait of Hormuz 
• Practical portfolio considerations, including:
• Volatility management
• Deploying cash assets
• Fixed-income duration
• Emphasizing quality and diversification

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Key topics & insights

1. Why energy is the fast transmission mechanism

• Oil & gas move quickly into day-to-day costs: Higher energy prices pressure consumer budgets and can reduce spending elsewhere (they note consumption is ~two-thirds of the U.S. and Canadian economies).
• Real-time examples of price impacts: They cite U.S. average gasoline prices around $3.60/gal, up ~27% since early March (also noting seasonal “summer blend” effects).
• Europe’s sensitivity to natural gas: They highlight that gas matters particularly for Europe and can drive equity volatility there.

2. The conflict’s nuance: scale of regional supply + chokepoint risk

• Middle East production concentration: They estimate roughly ~20% of global oil production comes from the Middle East.
• Strait of Hormuz as a chokepoint: They emphasize the Strait’s importance, noting ~20% of oil flows through it daily and also referencing natural gas flows.
• Operational disruption risk vs. outright closure: Even if ships have legal right of passage, they discuss how slower traffic, inspections, and higher insurance costs can still disrupt supply and risk sentiment.

3. Disruptive vs. destructive: what history suggests

• Most geopolitical shocks are “disruptive”: They describe internal research showing many events historically have short-lived market drawdowns, with returns often positive 3 months and 1 year later.
• When it can turn “destructive”: They reference the 1973–74 oil shock/Yom Kippur War framework—where sustained high oil contributed to recession—arguing the duration of elevated prices is key.
• Catalyst vs. cause: They note recessions typically aren’t caused by one event alone; timing and existing fragilities matter.

4. Inflation, central banks, and why bonds may not hedge the usual way

• Energy can re-ignite inflation fears: If high energy is not transitory, they suggest inflation could remain sticky or reaccelerate.
• Policy uncertainty: They discuss the challenge for central banks balancing inflation control vs. growth risks, and note market expectations for 2026 rate cuts shifting (from multiple cuts expected to potentially far fewer).
• Fixed income positioning: They express preference for higher-quality credit and caution against taking too much duration risk in a volatile inflation backdrop; fixed income is framed as a patience game.

5) Portfolio discipline in fast-moving headline markets

• Don’t invest emotionally: They stress not letting emotions drive decisions and reiterate diversification’s role.
• Cash deployment needs a plan: Because markets can move sharply on ceasefire/headline risk, they advocate “staging in” with predefined triggers rather than trying to time a single entry point.
• Volatility as an opportunity indicator: They cite research that investing when the VIX is above 30 historically led to stronger forward returns (e.g., higher 6-month and 1-year returns vs. average conditions), while noting VIX was around the mid-20s at the time discussed.

6. Second-order impacts beyond oil and gas (food inputs)

• Fertilizer/food linkage: They highlight the Strait’s relevance to seaborne sulfur trade (a fertilizer input), raising the possibility of food-price implications—especially relevant for emerging markets and policy paths.

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Actionable takeaways for Canadian investors

• Separate geopolitics from portfolio process: Don’t make large, reactive shifts based on fast-changing headlines; keep decisions anchored to your plan and time horizon.
• Watch energy as the key macro variable: Monitor whether oil and gas remain elevated for longer—that’s the difference between a short shock and a broader inflation/growth problem.
• Be intentional with cash: If you have cash to deploy, use a staged plan with trigger points (rather than waiting for “all-clear” news that may already be priced in).
• Revisit fixed-income risk (duration and quality): In an energy-driven inflation-risk scenario, consider whether your bond exposure is taking more duration risk than you intended; emphasize quality and recognize bonds may not cushion equities as reliably if inflation expectations rise.
• Stay diversified and avoid concentration: Use this as a reminder that diversification across geographies and asset classes matters—especially when a single risk factor (energy) can dominate outcomes.
• Use volatility constructively: If volatility spikes to extreme levels, history (as discussed in the episode) suggests those periods can be better long-term entry points—provided you can stay disciplined.
•  

Links & Resources

• Listen to the episode:Investments Unplugged Podcast
• Learn more about Manulife Investments:Manulife IM Canada
•  

Share & Subscribe

If you enjoyed this episode, please share it with your network and subscribe for future insights on markets, investing, and portfolio strategy.

For informational purposes only. This episode does not constitute investment advice. Please consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.

In this episode of Investments Unplugged, hosts Kevin Headland and Macan Nia mark International Women’s Day by exploring longevity through the lens of women and financial preparedness. They’re joined by Director, Multi-Asset Solutions Erica Camilleri, who shares thoughts and research on why longevity risk is higher for women, how today’s macroeconomic backdrop (including higher cross-asset correlations and persistent inflation) can amplify retirement risks, and what investors can do—through better planning, appropriate risk-taking, and sound advice—to reduce the odds of outliving their savings.

Key topics & insights

1. Longevity risk and why it’s higher for women

• Financial shortfall risk gap — Manulife research found that women in Canada face a higher risk of experiencing financial shortfalls in retirement than men do (34% vs. 29%).
• It’s not just living longer — Longevity risk stems from a mix of longer (and rising) life expectancies, plus structural and social factors that can reduce lifetime savings and increase retirement vulnerability.

2. Health, wealth, and “longevity preparedness”

• Health and wealth are intertwined — The conversation emphasizes that longevity preparedness isn’t only about financial issues; for example, poor health can worsen retirement outcomes and vice versa.
• New tools and frameworks — The “longevity preparedness index” is designed to measure readiness to thrive while aging in retirement and is expected to expand into Canada in coming years.

3. The role of incentives and behaviour change (and why it matters for outcomes)

• Incentives can drive better habits — The episode highlights research over decades indicating that specific goals outperform vague “do your best” goals and discusses how incentive-based programs can encourage healthier behaviour (and, by extension, better long-term outcomes).

4. Structural inflation is still a long-term retirement risk

• Inflation has moderated cyclically but remains structurally higher — Even if inflation trends toward central bank targets, the episode argues households are still living with a higher price level and that long-run inflation may settle in the mid-to-high 2% range rather than the pre-pandemic norm.
• Retirement math is sensitive to small inflation shifts — A modest upward shift in expected inflation (example discussed: +40 bps) can materially raise required savings/asset levels for retirement (example cited: a 30-year-old might need ~19% more assets).

5. Portfolio construction challenges: higher correlations and concentration risk

• Diversification is harder when correlations rise — The hosts discuss higher correlations within equities and between equities and fixed income, plus increased market concentration—factors that can make portfolios more vulnerable to shocks.
• Longevity risk is amplified by portfolio risk — In a “fluid” market backdrop, managing drawdowns and sequence-of-returns risk becomes more important for sustaining long retirements.

6. Mitigating longevity risk: saving earlier, compounding, and appropriate risk

• Start early; small changes matter — The conversation stresses the power of compounding and the outsized impact of starting earlier (even with small incremental improvements).
• Avoid being overly conservative — The episode argues many investors (especially in defined contribution plans) are too conservative, and that growth asset exposure is critical to reducing shortfall risk over multi-decade retirements.
• Rethinking retirement glidepaths — Erica explains their approach avoids a static asset allocation through retirement, allowing for more growth exposure early in retirement given retirements can last decades.

7. Advice, planning, and using the right tools (including RRSPs)

• Financial advice early helps — A repeated theme is that advice earlier in life helps investors understand opportunities, risks, and the need for money to last throughout retirement (and potentially leave a legacy).
• Tax-advantaged tools matter — The hosts reference prior discussions on RRSP benefits and how tax savings can compound and support retirement resilience.

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Actionable takeaways for Canadian investors

• Plan for a longer retirement than you think: Build your plan around the possibility of a multi-decade retirement (the episode references retirements that could stretch to ~40 years).
• Don’t ignore inflation in long-range assumptions: Stress-test your retirement plan for slightly higher long-term inflation; even small changes can require meaningfully higher savings.
• Prioritize time in the market (compounding): If you’re early in your career, focus on starting now—small contribution increases made earlier can have an outsized impact later.
• Be deliberate about risk—not automatically conservative: Review whether your portfolio is too cautious for your horizon (including early retirement), since insufficient growth can increase shortfall risk.
• Diversify with today’s correlation regime in mind: Recognize that diversification may be less reliable when equity/fixed income correlations rise; ensure your portfolio isn’t overly concentrated in a few exposures.
• Use advice and tax tools to improve outcomes: Consider getting financial advice earlier and make full use of retirement vehicles (e.g., RRSPs) where appropriate to improve after-tax compounding.
•  

Links & Resources

• Listen to the episode:Investments Unplugged Podcast
• Learn more about Manulife Investments:Manulife IM Canada

Share & Subscribe

If you enjoyed this episode, please share it with your network and subscribe for future insights on markets, investing, and portfolio strategy.

For informational purposes only. This episode does not constitute investment advice. Please consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.

Hosts:

Kevin Headland (Co-chief Investment Strategist)

Macan Nia (Co-Chief Investment Strategist)

Special guests:

Emily Roland (Co-Chief Investment Strategist)

Matt Miskin (Co-Chief Investment Strategist)

Episode highlights

• 2025 in review:

• The team discusses the strong performance of markets in 2025, including the

TSX’s impressive 24% return despite a challenging economic backdrop in Canada.

• Key market drivers:

• The role of momentum trading, trend-following strategies, and AI exuberance.

• The ongoing influence of the crypto trade.

• Discrepancies between Canada’s economic data and TSX performance.

• Looking ahead to 2026:

• Will the trends of 2025 continue, or is a shift on the horizon?

• The importance of sentiment as we enter the new year—are markets priced for

perfection?

• Why investing in companies is not the same as investing in the broader economy.

• Risks and opportunities:

• Potential risks for the Canadian economy, especially regarding banks and

financials.

• The importance of being prudent and keeping an eye on domestic economic

indicators.

• The impact of investor confidence and employment on market flows.

• Actionable insight:

Information à usage interne - Internal

• The team provides practical considerations for investors as they position

portfolios for 2026.

• Encouragement to review the team’s full 2026 outlook, available on the Manulife

Investments website.

Additional information

• Subscribe on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or your favorite platform to stay up to date.

• Listeners are encouraged to rate, share, and reach out with questions or feedback.

In this special episode, hosts and Co-Chief Investment Strategists Kevin Headland and Macan Nia welcome Nathan William Thooft, Chief Investment Officer for Multi Assets and Equities at Manulife Investments. Nate shares his global perspective on markets, asset allocation, and the evolving investment landscape, with insights tailored for Canadian investors.

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Key topics & insights

1. U.S. economic outlook: resilience amid uncertainty

· No imminent recession expected—Nate explains that while recent U.S. labor market data has softened, it’s not likely a signal for an imminent recession. The U.S. economy’s balance between manufacturing and services helps offset sector-specific weaknesses.

· Policy uncertainty—Earlier legislative and tariff changes have caused “paralysis” in company decision-making, but clarity is expected to improve economic data in coming months.

· New paradigm—The severity of future U.S. recessions may be more muted due to the economy’s diversification.

2. Inflation & tariffs: what’s really happening?

· Tariff impact delayed—Studies show tariffs typically take up to a year to affect inflation. Many imports are exempt, and companies are absorbing costs, leading to lower-than-expected inflationary effects.

· Substitution effect—Companies are shifting imports to countries with lower tariffs, further dampening inflation pressures.

3. Regional equity markets: Europe & Asia

· Europe’s outperformance—European equities have surprised with strong returns in 2025. Nate attributes this to a sentiment shift away from the U.S. amid geopolitical uncertainty, but sees it as opportunistic rather than a long-term trend.

· Active vs. passive management—Active management is especially valuable in regions like Europe and Asia, where opportunities are less covered.

· China’s mixed signals—Despite strong equity performance and policy support, China’s fundamentals (consumer spending, industrial production) remain weak. Nate is cautiously optimistic, citing potential in technology and AI, and improving sentiment.

4. Asset allocation: equities vs. fixed income

· Modest equity overweight—Manulife portfolios remain overweight equities, reflecting solid fundamentals despite stretched valuations.

· Fixed income caution—Less conviction in long-duration fixed income due to changing yield curve dynamics and rising term premiums.

· Diversification beyond 60/40—Nate advocates for broader diversification, including alternative assets, to manage risk.

5. Private Assets & Alternatives

· Democratization of privates—The trend toward making private assets (infrastructure, private credit, real estate) accessible to retail investors is accelerating, as seen in recent industry partnerships.

· Role in portfolios—Private assets offer diversification and potential downside protection, especially when traditional fixed income may be less effective.

6. Artificial Intelligence (AI) in asset management

· Efficiency & speed—AI is transforming research, data analysis, and commentary writing, but won’t replace portfolio managers who bring creativity and intellectual capital.

· Research revolution—AI enables analysis of vast data sets, improving productivity and decision-making.

7. Cryptocurrency: a legitimate asset class?

· Growing acceptance—Nate views crypto as a legitimate asset class, though volatility and regulatory uncertainty mean exposures should remain modest and client-specific.

· Regulatory trends—As demand grows, policy is likely to become more accommodating.

8. Career advice for aspiring portfolio managers

· Decisiveness—Don’t wait for perfect information—make decisions with 60–80% of the data to avoid missing opportunities.

· Passion & objectivity—Be passionate about investing, but unemotional in decision-making. The ability to cut losses and remain objective is crucial for success.

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Actionable takeaways for Canadian investors

· Stay diversified—Consider global opportunities and alternatives beyond traditional stocks and bonds.

· Monitor policy impacts—Watch for delayed effects from tariffs and monetary policy.

· Embrace active management—Especially in regions with less coverage and more inefficiencies.

· Explore private assets—As access expands, these can enhance portfolio resilience.

· Leverage technology—AI will increasingly support research and efficiency, but human insight remains essential.

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Links & Resources · Listen to the episode: Investments Unplugged Podcast · Learn more about Manulife Investments: Manulife IM Canada

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Share & Subscribe

If you enjoyed this episode, please share it with your network and subscribe for future insights on markets, investing, and portfolio strategy.

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For informational purposes only. This episode does not constitute investment advice. Please consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.

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Show notes prepared by Investments Unplugged Podcast Team, September 2025.

• market reactions to the Fed announcement
• quantitative tightening cycles
• geopolitical risk in Eastern Europe
• effects of fluctuating oil prices
• recession and the 10-year Treasury yield.

Take your pitons, ropes, and harnesses—we’re about to ascend some interesting topics.