Geopolitics with Frank McKenna

Trump's Iran Conundrum

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Frank McKenna, Peter Haynes) — Fri, 27 Mar 2026 14:00:00 +0000

In Episode 76, Frank ponders the potential outcomes of the War in Iran and its impact on other global geopolitical events. He believes that despite a wide bid-ask spread in peace negotiations between Iran and the US that the Trump Administration will find a peaceful end to hostilities in the near future. Complicating matters in this war are different goals for the two protagonists, The US and Israel, one of which has to live next door to a now angry Iranian regime. Frank is not surprised by Iran's tactics in the Strait of Hormuz, nor the lack of support for military escorts from NATO allies. One certainty is the impact of the war on energy prices and, in turn, broader inflation trends in the US is going to be negative for Trump and the Republicans at mid-term elections in November. We finish the dialogue back home in Canada, where citizens of the Province of Alberta are expected to hold a vote on secession from Canada later this year, an unfortunate distraction for Albertans and Canadians at a time of so much other geopolitical noise. Despite this unwanted noise and limited likelihood of success in the first secession attempt, Canadians would be remiss if we simply ignored this Alberta secession vote as noise; just ask citizens of the UK who didn’t take Brexit seriously until it was too late.

This podcast was recorded on March 26, 2026

Chapter Headings:

01:47 - The Goal of War with Iran

08:18 - Narrowing the Bid-Ask Spread on Peace Negotiations

12:57 - Iran's Control of Strait of Hormuz

16:31 - Trump's Tries to Hold His Base

19:45 - The Future of NATO

27:19 - China's Quiet Positioning

35:05 - Higher Energy Prices – Impact on Mid-Terms

37:31 - Save America Act

43:11 - Alberta Secession Talk

55:57 - Frank's Two Favorite Words "Opening Day

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Tariff Debate Takes Centre Stage

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (TD Securities) — Fri, 27 Feb 2026 18:30:00 +0000

What if Cuba became a territory of Canada? What if Justice Alito suddenly retired this summer? These are just two of Frank's more provocative thoughts in this month's episode of Geopolitics. Frank also addresses the "monumental" Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, Trump's pivot to Section 122 flat tariffs and Jameson Greer's suggestion that Canada needs to accept some tariff level as part of CUSMA negotiations, a point Frank pushes back on given it defeats the notion of a "free trade agreement." He also discusses the prospect of US military action in Iran, the latest on Venezuela and the possible revitalization of Keystone XL.

This podcast was recorded on February 26, 2026

Chapter Headings:

01:36 - Frank's Musings on Supreme Court Changes and a Solution for Cuba

10:39 - Supreme Court Ruling on IEEPA Tariffs and Trump's Pivot to 122

18:08 - Does Canada Have to Accept Tariffs in a renewed CUSMA?

23:52 - Trump's Plan to Replace Income Tax with Tariff Revenues

27:26 - Will Trump Attack Iran?

33:34 - The Latest in Venezuela

35:27 - South Bow Discusses Revitalizing Keystone XL

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Is Chaos a Distraction?

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Frank McKenna, Peter Haynes) — Wed, 21 Jan 2026 21:00:00 +0000

Two weeks have passed since Frank last spoke to listeners. Since then, it has been chaos in global geopolitical circles, with Frank wondering whether some of this noise is meant to distract from issues the US Administration would prefer to take a back seat in the current news cycle. Trump's consistent musings about owning Greenland have become a major escalation of geopolitical risk, and Frank worries that it is at this juncture in cross-border disputes when mistakes happen, someone says or does the wrong thing, and a situation destabilizes. He is hopeful that cooler heads prevail, and an off ramp can be found in Davos. Frank still wonders why the US Administration claims it needs Greenland, asking "why buy the cow when you already get the milk for free?" This month's podcast also covers tariffs, Iran, Minnesota, Venezuela, the Board of Peace, the Munroe Doctrine, Canada's China pivot, Legault's resignation in Quebec, Powell's Fed Indictment, populist market interventions by Trump and Prime Minister Carney's "sobering" speech to the World Economic Forum.

This podcast was recorded on January 20, 2026

Chapter Headings:

01:10 US vs NATO on Greenland

06:04 Study Confirms Cost of Tariffs Borne by US Consumer

10:37 Jawboning The Supreme Court Over Tariffs

13:30 Carney's Sobering Speech in Davos

15:19 Trump Rhetoric over Greenland Eerily Similar to Putin and Ukraine

18:17 Iranian Military Quells Uprising

20:20 Two Weeks Later – What Lies Ahead for Venezuela

23:48 Trump's Alternative to the UN – A So-Called "Board of Peace"

27:14 Listener Mailbag – MAGA Supporter Asks Frank about Munroe Doctrine

35:38 Trump's Populist Marketplace Interventions

37:54 ICE and Minnesota

40:10 Powell and Fed Independence

41:40 Legault Resignation Throws Open Quebec's Leadership Race

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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The Impact of Nicolas Maduro's Arrest on Geopolitics in the Western Hemisphere

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Frank McKenna, Peter Haynes) — Thu, 8 Jan 2026 16:00:00 +0000

Episode 73 of Geopolitics is a special episode in which Frank discusses the implications for global geopolitics of the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Frank discusses backlash in Washington of the decision to arrest Maduro without Congressional authority, what it means for possible next moves for the United States as it flexes its military muscle in the Western Hemisphere for both Venezuelan neighbors but also Greenland and Canada. In addition, he ponders the potential that the Maduro move spawns global spheres of influence as the US implements its National Security Strategy (coined by President Trump as "the Donroe Document." For Canadians, Frank discusses implications of this geopolitical theatre for Canada's energy sector and whether a new pipeline to tidewater is more or less feasible today than last week and whether the prospect of growth in Venezuelan heavy oil production truly provides US leverage in upcoming CUSMA negotiations.

This podcast was recorded on January 7, 2026

Chapter Headings:

01:10 - The Capture of Maduro – US Motivation and Next Day Plans

06:38 - Trump Chooses Incumbent over Nobel Prize Winning Opponent

12:54 - Rebuilding Venezuela's Oil Infrastructure

17:32 - Spheres of Influence – Where Does Canada Stand?

29:54 - Sleeping With One Eye Open – Will Trump Follow Through on Saber Rattling?

37:38 - Mark Wiseman's Chops as Ambassador

39:18 - Implications for Canada's Energy Sector

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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December Musings and Predictions for 2026

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Peter Haynes, Frank McKenna) — Tue, 16 Dec 2025 22:00:00 +0000

Episode 72 of Geopolitics is a mix of current events and predictions for 2026. Frank discusses the U.S.'s recently released National Security Strategy that some pundits believe is akin to the original Monroe Doctrine published following the American Revolution that aimed to establish U.S. dominance over the Western Hemisphere. After praising outgoing Canadian Ambassador to the U.S. Kirsten Hillman on her retirement announcement, Frank provides advice to the next person in the foxhole for Canada in Washington. He discusses the continued aisle crossings in Ottawa pushing the Liberals near to a majority and reminds listeners that the practice is nothing new in Canada. Before getting to his 2026 predictions, Frank weighs in again on the MTG vs Trump saga and finally whether Indiana's rebuttal of President Trump means the end of gerrymandering…for now. In terms of predictions, you won't want to miss his thoughts on the future of CUSMA, the Trans Mountain Pipeline, the War in Ukraine, and the Mid-term elections in Washington.

This podcast was recorded on December 15, 2025

Chapter Headings:

00:43 - The Monroe Doctrine 2.0

07:52 - Advice for the Incoming Ambassador in Washington

12:18 - Another MP Crosses the Aisle

17:12 - MTG Questions Whether Trump is America First

23:09 - The End of Gerrymandering…for Now

26:14 - 2026 Predictions

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Carney Travels the World While Managing Complex Domestic Agenda

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Frank McKenna, Peter Haynes) — Fri, 28 Nov 2025 15:00:00 +0000

Frank comes out on fire in Episode 71 when questioned on his recent travels to the Middle East, describing the region as hot, and clearly justifying the Prime Minister's recent outreach for partnerships with countries in the region. He summarizes thoughts on the recent COP 30 and the G20 Summits, as well as trade negotiations with the US and he highlights a sleeper issue in Canada, which is the growing popularity of a separatist party in Quebec with a mandate to vote for separation. He finishes with thoughts on political meddling allegations, Marjorie Taylor Greene's resignation, and other hot topics in Washington.

This podcast was recorded on November 26, 2025

Chapter Headings:

03:41 Ukraine Peace Plan Makes Progress – Why Now?

08:31 Is COP 30 Past its Best Before Date?

13:33 The BC Pipeline Debate

24:04 Quebec Separation Chatter

26:26 Trade Negotiations and Political Meddling

39:10 Is Marjorie Taylor Greene's Resignation a Canary?

41:23 Other News in Washington

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Trade Update and Canada's Budget – Rona and Frank Debate

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Frank McKenna, Rona Ambrose, Peter Haynes) — Mon, 10 Nov 2025 20:30:00 +0000

Episode 70 of Geopolitics is a bonus episode taken from a panel at our recent Portfolio Management and Market Structure Conference. Frank McKenna is joined by his TD colleague The Honorable Rona Ambrose, Deputy Chairwoman, TD Securities, and former leader of the Conservative Party in Canada, for a discussion that includes the on again off again trade negotiations between Canada and the US and a review of last week's budget in Canada. While Frank admits the budget was likely over-hyped and a disappointment, Rona takes direct aim at the fact the incumbent government clearly stated that younger generations will need to suffer and made no attempts to appease the interest of the other parties in parliament with its budget decisions. Frank admits he still does not know what Trump's end goal in trade negotiations with Canada is but believes the end deal between the two countries is likely to be much narrower than anticipated originally.

This podcast was recorded on November 6, 2025

Chapter Times:

02:09 - Trump's Real Motivation for Suspending Trade Negotiations

20:33 - The View Inside the Republican Party on Trade

23:09 - Supreme Court Appears Skeptical of Trump's Use of IEEPA

28:14 - Signals from Off Cycle US Elections

34:54 - Gerrymandering

41:07 - First Take on Canada's Budget

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Never a Dull Moment in Washington

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Frank McKenna, Chris Krueger, Peter Haynes) — Tue, 21 Oct 2025 17:00:00 +0000

In Episode 69, Frank invites Chris Krueger, Strategist with TD Cowen's Washington Research Group, to join the pod to help navigate the fast-moving developments in Washington including the government work stoppage, Canada-US trade negotiations, and the postmortem of President Trump's recent Whitehouse meeting with Ukraine President Zelensky. Frank describes trade negotiations as slogging along given that the two countries have incredibly inter-twined economies, and a complex trade and security relationship. Pipelines are back in the news and Frank weighs the pros and cons of a Keystone restart or pipeline to the Northern BC Coast with continued expansion of existing infrastructure. Chris provides our mostly Canadian audience with a 101 on gerrymandering, and its impact on mid-term elections. The two geopolitical experts finish up discussing the merits of a Nobel Peace Prize for Trump and potential end to the war in Ukraine.

This podcast was recorded on October 20, 2025

Chapter Times:

01:31 - Slogging Through Canada-US Trade Negotiations

13:39 - Carney's Balancing Act with Canada's Premiers

17:09 - Setting the Record Straight on Tariff Revenues

22:20 - Pipelines Back in the News in Canada

29:07 - Explaining Washington's Work Stoppage

33:53 - Is Stellantis's Brampton Plant Closure the Canary?

38:33 - Gerrymandering Gone Wild

43:41 - Peace Negotiations in Middle East and Ukraine

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Franks Funk

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Peter Haynes, Frank McKenna) — Wed, 24 Sep 2025 17:23:41 +0000

Frank comes to the September podcast taping in a somber mood, strange for someone who prides himself as the eternal optimist. What has Frank in a mood? Well, he lists several issues with the current US Administration that has him questioning the United States's position as leader of the free world. Meanwhile he is very concerned about the prospect Trump triggers the shotgun clause on CUSMA wiping out the existing agreement, a possibility allowed under Article 34.6 of the Agreement. Hence the need for Canada's Prime Minister Carney to continue to strengthen trading relationships outside of the US such as was evidenced with his recent meeting with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. Frank likes the appointment of Dawn Farrell to head the Major Projects Office and is bullish on the prospects that the one project, one review, one decision two-year time frame for Major Projects is realistic. Frank provides his thoughts on free speech in the wake of Charlie Kirk's assassination and on Putin's addiction to War. Finally, Frank cracked his familiar smile again when talking about his beloved Blue Jays as we do at the end of every podcast.

This podcast was recorded on September 23, 2025 at 6 pm EST

Chapter Headings:

00:52 Frank's Somber Mood Towards Canada-US Relations

06:33 Will Trump Renegotiate or Blow-Up CUSMA?

20:50 Carney Branches Out Trading Relationships

23:09 Dawn Farrell and Canada's Five Major Infrastructure Projects

28:58 Canada Joins Other G7 Countries in Recognizing Palestinian State

34:33 The Polarized US Political Landscape

41:26 Putin's Addiction to War

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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CUSMA, Ukraine and Gerrymandering in Frank's Crosshairs

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (TD Securities) — Wed, 20 Aug 2025 16:00:00 +0000

Frank is back after a month off with a lot to cover in the current Episode 67. He starts with a review of Canada's handling of forest fires, an area where Canada is arguably a world leader, and what can be done in the new normal to mitigate risk of future forest fire growth. Frank discusses the pros and cons of back to work legislation by the Federal Government used in the Air Canada flight attendant strike and is frustrated whenever one party has too much leverage in work disruptions. After covering the latest on trade negotiations between Canada and the US and the potential sale of infrastructure assets by Canada's Federal Government, he switches gears to US politics, finishing up on Trump's dramatic efforts to broker an end to the Ukraine – Russian war and the gerrymandering of districts fight on-going in Texas.

This podcast was recorded on August 19, 2025.

Chapter Headings

04:40 - Forest Fire Mitigation Tools

10:08 - Air Canada Strike Resolution is Teaching Moment

18:25 - Canada's New Normal Trade Arrangement with US

33:23 - Will Canada's Federal Government Sell Infrastructure Assets?

37:38 - Trump's Full Court Press to End the War in Ukraine

44:39 - Gerrymandering in Texas – A Precursor to More Partisan Politics

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Iran Takes Center of World Geopolitical Stage

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Peter Haynes, Frank McKenna) — Wed, 25 Jun 2025 13:00:00 +0000

Frank's focus during the June episode of Geopolitics was on analyzing the fluid situation in the Middle East following Israel's 12-day war with Iran and the US's decision to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities. Stepping back to the catalyst event for this war, Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu's order to take out Iranian military leaders, Frank believes this decision is more about Netanyahu's political survival than a tactical move to take advantage of a weakened group of Iranian proxies. The Iranian-Israel war also took center stage at the recent G7 Summit hosted by Canadian Prime Minister Carney, an event partially hijacked by President Trump's decision to leave early to address the Middle Eastern unrest. Prior to his departure, Trump did meet with Carney and the two leaders agreed to work out a comprehensive bi-lateral trade and security agreement within 30 days, an announcement that brings with it some skepticism as to what such an agreement will look like and whether Section 899 tax issues will be included. The conversation ends where it always seems to end, with Frank continuing to be more bullish on his beloved Blue Jays than the host.

This podcast was recorded on June 24, 2025.

Chapter Headings:

03:08 President Trump's Attack on Iran

10:28 Political Calculus for Trump's Iran Missive

16:00 Netanyahu's Decision to Open Another War Flank with Iran

20:03 Trump's G-7 Departure and Relationship with Carney

24:46 Evaluating Carney's Decision to Invite India's Moti to G-7

31:10 The Latest on Section 899

35:50 Is Danielle Smith Setting the Bar Too High with BC Pipeline Chatter?

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Finally a Chance to Talk About Something Other Than Tariffs

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Frank McKenna, Peter Haynes) — Thu, 22 May 2025 15:29:47 +0000

For the first time in four months of our podcast series, the focus of Frank's attention is not centered around tariffs. This month Frank starts with a detailed analysis of Prime Minister Carney's cabinet, a carefully constructed team of ministers balancing geographic, gender and ethnic interests from across the country. Frank addresses comments from Alberta's Premier Danielle Smith on separation, suggesting she would be better off leading than following her base of support. On a positive note, Smith seemed more bullish on the prospects for energy infrastructure builds across the country following comments from Quebec Premier Legault, who previously did not support building pipelines through his province. Frank discussed Prime Minister Carney's visit to the Whitehouse where he received good marks for his messaging on Canada's sovereignty which did not require confrontation with the President. We then move the discussion to global issues, covering handshake trade deals, the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, which Frank suggests are closer to the end than the beginning, and the recent flare up between Pakistan and India in Kashmir. He finishes with a suggestion that the Jays are better than their record, a point of view that was not supported by the normally bullish podcast host.

This podcast was recorded on May 21, 2025.

Chapter Headings:

01:28 - The Carney Cabinet

06:21 - Smith and Alberta Separation

12:50 - Spending on Energy Infrastructure

21:53 - Bullish Tone for Canada

28:50 - Carney and Trump

34:36 - Trump and Tariffs

40:30 - Is Trump's Nobel Prize Slipping Away?

43:31 - India-Pakistan Flare Up

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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The Puck Drops on Federal Election in Canada

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Peter Haynes, Frank McKenna) — Wed, 30 Apr 2025 19:00:00 +0000

In Episode 64, Frank covers the Canadian election from top to bottom, including addressing unflattering comments about Canada as a country from the leader of the Bloc Quebecois and the Premier of Alberta. Frank addresses each of the major platform concerns of Western leaders as it relates to natural resource and pipeline development including Bill C69, the energy cap and industrial carbon tax. He provides a 101 lesson on equalization payments, a source of frustration for Western provinces who typically are not recipients of transfers from the Federal Government by virtue of low tax bases and resource reserves. The episode then shifts to Canada-US relations, where Frank addresses President Trump's interference with the Canadian election and expectations for renegotiation of a trilateral trade agreement, which he suggests Canada reluctantly pursue, but with eyes wide open and asks from the north side of the border. He finishes with an update on the war in Ukraine and, of course, laments the state of play of his beloved Toronto Blue Jays.

This podcast was recorded on April 29, 2025.

Chapter Headings:

00:29 - First Take on Election Results and Future of Unelected Pierre Poilievre

09:34 - Regional Interests Take Centre Stage

13:17 - Addressing Western Canadian Demands

28:17 - Equalization Payments

36:26 - Trump and the Canadian Election

42:50 - The 90 Day Tariff Negotiation

48:00 - Back and Forth on Russia-Ukraine

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Canada's New Prime Minister Joins Tariff/Sovereignty Debate

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Frank McKenna, Peter Haynes) — Tue, 18 Mar 2025 16:30:00 +0000

In Episode 63, the focus of discussions in on two main topics: new Prime Minister Mark Carney's early days at the helm of Canada, and tariffs. Frank discusses Carney's decision to travel to Europe before the US, a move that was criticized by Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, and the significant downsizing of the new Liberal cabinet, a move that was sure to hurt some feelings inside the caucus. Frank provides the pros and cons of choosing Carney or Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to represent Canada in negotiations with President Trump, and he debunks the recent claims by former Prime Minister Stephen Harper that Carney didn’t deserve credit for Canada's response to the GFC. In the tariff discussion, Frank dismisses Trump's repeated exaggerations about trade deficits equaling some sort of subsidy provided to Canada from the US. Frank counters that the existing trade deficit is not a subsidy that costs the United States jobs, instead it is a function of our abundance of raw material inputs that the United States imports from Canada. Frank also lays to rest any notion that Canada's dairy sector is not open for business with US suppliers; in fact, the US has yet to use up more than ½ of its dairy quotas with Canada since the 2018 CUSMA agreement set new free trade supply limits. Frank finishes with some ideas for Canada's government to meet its NATO spending commitments, and his belief in the need to keep momentum moving forward with respect to the elimination of intra-provincial trade barriers.

This podcast was recorded on March 17, 2025.

Chapter Headings

00:25 - Friendship Day in Colorado

03:44 - Carney's Cabinet and First Trip to Europe

09:02 - Carney or Poilievre – Who is Best Positioned to Negotiate with Trump?

14:28 - Carney on Taxes

16:41 - Harper on Carney's Contribution to Canada's GFC Response

19:03 - Two East Coast Premiers Retire – is this Coincidence?

21:12 - Trump's Exaggerations Used to Justify Tariffs on Canada

28:38 - Meeting NATO Defense Spending Target

36:24 - Understanding Dairy Quotas – Not Just a Canada Issue

48:08 - Is Momentum for Removing Intra-Provincial Trade Barriers Sustainable?

50:25 - Caught in the Blue Jays Vortex…Again

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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The Future of Canada-US Relations

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Peter Haynes, Frank McKenna) — Wed, 19 Feb 2025 20:44:50 +0000

In Episode 62, Frank is joined by Chris Krueger of TD Cowen's Washington Research Group to discuss the first 30 days of the Trump Administration, and the on-going trade war with Canada. Chris outlines his biggest surprises to date, including the sheer torque of rulemaking from the executive branch - he figures his team in Washington undershot the runway when it suggested Trump 2.0 would be "all gas, no break."

Frank provides insights into Canada's strategy for defending itself and thinks the current alignment across the country will be key to victory against the US tariffs, but he agrees with former Prime Minister Harper in suggesting that Canadians will need to be prepared to endure some hardships through this difficult period. He also explains the meaning of Interprovincial trade barriers, suggesting that they act as a 7% tariff on goods moving from province to province.

Chris also shares his biggest surprises to date in Trump's second term, including the influence of Elon Musk. Both Chris and Frank think that the right leaning Supreme Court will give Trump leeway to continue his changes in Washington but will keep some guardrails in place.

This podcast was recorded on February 18, 2025.

Chapter Headings

03:23 Newfoundland Premier’s “Chilling” Feedback from Trump Team

10:38 Next Steps on Canada-US Tariff Debate

15:40 Will Supreme Court Support Guard Rails for Executive Branch?

24:40 Flooding the Zone to Change the Narrative in US

31:22 Elon Musk’s Influence on Whitehouse

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Trudeau, The Liberal Party, Tariffs and Trump – What the Future Holds for Canada-US Relations?

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Peter Haynes, Frank McKenna) — Tue, 21 Jan 2025 22:00:00 +0000

Episode 61 is a deep dive into Canadian politics. Frank starts by handicapping the Liberal leadership race to elect Canada's next Prime Minister, a leader whose first order of business will be filling the leadership vacuum in Ottawa as Canada fights back against tariff threats from President Trump. He reminds Canada's provincial leaders of the importance of putting aside regional differences in favor of a Team Canada approach. Frank takes listeners back to Economics 101 where he discusses the theory of comparative advantage, while suggesting that businesses on both sides of the border are holding back investment while the period of tariff uncertainty continues. He addresses the trolling by President Trump of Canada and makes a passionate plea to Americans to understand that while we are friends, we want to remain Canadian. The conversation then moves to global affairs where we discuss the Israel-Hamas peace agreement, the likely end of the Ukraine War and other potential hot spots for geopolitics, including one that is surprisingly close to home.

This podcast was recorded on January 20, 2025.

Chapter Headings

00:50 - The Race to be Canada's Prime Minister

06:24 - Trump Tariff Decision on Hold

10:20 - Leadership Vacuum in Ottawa

11:50 - Economics 101 – Tariffs and Comparative Advantage

14:45 - Canada's Response to the Wildfires in LA

18:12 - Governor Trudeau and Manifest Destiny

23:06 - Justin Trudeau's Legacy and Biggest Regret

26:50 - Identity Politics

30:40 - Predicting the Election Outcome

32:35 - Does the Israel-Hamas Peace Agreement Have Legs?

36:30 - The Trump Oligarchy

37:40 - Zelensky's Dealmaking with Trump

39:42 - Other Potential Geopolitical Hot Spots in 2025

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Canada's Acute Case of Tariffitis

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Peter Haynes, Frank McKenna) — Wed, 18 Dec 2024 21:30:00 +0000

Episode 60 is dominated by recent events in Ottawa, a period Frank describes as the most chaotic in his lifetime. Frank first dissects the decision by Chrystia Freeland to resign from her post as Minister of Finance prior to delivering the Liberal Government's Fall Economic Statement. He then provides an update on next steps for the Liberal Party including his expectation that Prime Minister Trudeau will resign, perhaps after his own walk in the snow. Next it is on to the important task at hand, that is preparing to confront President Elect Trump's tariff threats, a topic Frank discussed with Canada's Premiers at precisely the same time Freeland resigned. The discussion then moves to international affairs, including budget issues in Europe and South Korea, as well as the warp speed of events in Syria and the rest of the Middle East. The discussion finishes in the same place it always does, with both Frank and Peter bemoaning the state of their beloved Toronto Blue Jays.

This podcast was recorded on December 17, 2024.

Chapter Headings

00:50 - Freeland's Shock Resignation

07:58 - Next Steps for Trudeau's Government

12:28 - Framing Canada's Response to Trump's Tariffs

24:50 - Democracy in South Korea

27:23 - The End of Assad's Reign of Terror in Syria

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Post Election Hangover – Now What?

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Frank McKenna, Peter Haynes) — Fri, 22 Nov 2024 22:00:00 +0000

Frank is back from a vacation in the Far East, and he is fired up to talk about the US Election and its implications for global geopolitics. We cover Trump's controversial cabinet picks. Frank is supportive of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, and Rubio will have his hands full with very active global hot spots in Russia, China, and the Middle East. The conversation ends with the new US Administration's implications on Canada, including whether Canada and the USMCA will be on the inside or outside of Trump's proposed tariff wall, and timing for a Canadian election.

This podcast was recorded on November 21, 2024.

Chapter Headings

1:00 – Frank's Unique Take on the Election Result

5:07 - Handicapping Complex Senate Confirmations

12:16 - Elon Musk's New Role Running DOGE, the Department not the Coin

17:52 – Comparing Cabinet Appointment Process in US vs Parliamentary System

20:07 – Are We Nearing the End Game in Russia?

28:16 - The Future of USMCA and Relationship with Mexico

31:47 - The Latest on Timing for a Canadian Election

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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The US Election – Post Mortem with Chris Krueger and Rona Ambrose

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Peter Haynes, Rona Ambrose, Chris Krueger) — Tue, 12 Nov 2024 22:00:00 +0000

In this special edition of Geopolitics, we check in on a post-election panel discussion at the 25th Annual TD Securities Portfolio Management and Market Structure Conference. With Frank Mckenna out of the country, Geopolitics host Peter Haynes is joined by The Honorable Rona Ambrose, Deputy Chairwoman of TD Securities and Chris Krueger, Geopolitics Expert at TD Cowen's The Washington Research Group to discuss the surprising US Election results and its implications for Canada-US relations. Rona also takes time to discuss the political backdrop in Canada and potential for an election north of the border in the next few months.

Chapter Headings:

1:00 – The Outstanding Races – When Will They Be Decided?

4:30 – Rona's Biggest Surprise

10:10 – The Future of USMCA and Canada's Minerals and Water

15:55 – Trump's Potential Cabinet Appointments

23:10 – Tariffs, Immigration and Ukraine

29:00 – The 411 on Pierre Poilievre

36:40 – Key Dates Until Inauguration

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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The Long Road to the US Election Nears an End – or does it?

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Chris Krueger, Peter Haynes, Frank McKenna) — Thu, 24 Oct 2024 17:00:00 +0000

In Episode 57, Frank invites Chris Krueger, TD Cowen's Washington politics expert, to the podcast to discuss the upcoming November 5th US Election and key factors that will determine who wins the Presidential race. Frank explains the importance of the election outcome to Canada, noting that if Trump is true to his word (and there is no reason to doubt him), then a Republican victory would lead to a weakening (if not outright end) of multilateralism globally. While the USMCA might survive, the threat of unilateral tariffs will overhang Canada-US relations for the duration of the next Administration. We discuss down ballet Congressional votes, which according to both Frank and Chris are likely to lead to a split Congress. Chris also weighs in on the risk of outlier events disrupting the peaceful transition of power. We wrap up with Frank's take on the Federal Liberal Caucus revolt, and the likelihood that Prime Minister Trudeau stays on through the next election in Canada, especially considering incumbent defeats in provincial elections from coast to coast.

Chapter Headings:

0:55 - Is the US Election the Most Consequential in History?

2:11 - Key Variables that Will Decide the Outcome

8:58 - USMCA – Threat of Unilateral Sanctions from a Trump Administration

14:07 - Will the Prime Minister Push Biden to Resolve Softwood Lumber Dispute?

16:50 - Risk of Outlier Events Disrupting Peaceful Transition of Power

27:02 - Trump Tax Breaks and Debt Ceiling

33:19 - Placing Bets on the Winner

36:28 - Liberal Caucus Revolt and Likelihood Trudeau Stays on Through Next Election

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Canada's Provincial and Federal Election Watch

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Frank McKenna, Peter Haynes) — Thu, 26 Sep 2024 14:00:00 +0000

Episode 56 is a mostly Made in Canada geopolitical discussion. Frank covers the NDP decision to end its supply and confidence agreement with Prime Minister Trudeau and his Liberal Party, leading to speculation of a snap election soon in Canada. Frank handicaps the three provincial elections in Canada in October in BC, Saskatchewan and his home province of New Brunswick where it is a close race dictated by regional differences in voter preferences. As two months have passed without a decision by Trudeau to step down, it appears to Frank like the Prime Minister will stay on to lead the Liberals through the next election. Frank puts concern over border security in Quebec in perspective as minor in comparison to the southern border of the US and then finishes the conversation with US election predictions and a discussion on the disturbing escalation in tensions between Israel and Hezbollah.

Chapter Headings

00:46 - NDP Ends Supply and Confidence – What is its Calculus?

03:35 - Tick Tock – Time Passes and Trudeau is Still Leader

07:52 - Handicapping Three Provincial Elections in October

13:27 - Frank Meets Liberal Cabinet on CAD-US Relations – Takeaways

18:30 - Border Security – Quebec-New York State

24:22 - Canada's Obsessions with US Politics – Is it Unhealthy?

26:38 - 40 Days Until the US Election

31:49 - Israel's Pre-Emptive Strike on Hezbollah

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Canada's Aging Infrastructure – Adversity or Opportunity?

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (TD Securities) — Thu, 22 Aug 2024 14:52:42 +0000

In Episode 55, Frank discusses Ukrainian tactics in its war with Russia, suggesting that the incursion into Russian territory and recent drone attacks are more than just bargaining chips. Crossing back to North America, we discuss the on-going love in with the Harris-Walz ticket, and the importance of Trump vs Harris on September 10. Frank downplays the significance of an RFK Jr defection to Trump's camp as it remains unclear whether the existence of RFK Jr as a third-party candidate helps or hurts the Republicans. Before we finish with our proverbial critique of the Jays, Frank offers his thoughts on the importance of public-private partnerships in fixing Canada's aging infrastructure.

Chapter Headings

05:22 - Ukraine's Aggressive Move into Russia

11:14 - Democrats Control the News Cycle

18:24 - Is RFK Important to Trump?

23:57 - Trudeau's Calculus

28:20 - How to Fix Canada's Aging Infrastructure

This podcast was recorded on August 21, 2024

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Frank McKenna Live

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Frank McKenna, Peter Haynes) — Wed, 31 Jul 2024 16:30:00 +0000

Who says the summer is boring? In Episode 54, Frank admits there is not enough time in the day to keep up with the current geopolitical landscape. After a brief history of Frank's storied career, this month's discussion moves quickly to President Biden's decision to not seek re-election, the rise of Kamala Harris and her candidates for running mate and then pivots to Trump, Trump 2.0 (JD Vance), the assassination attempt and the Florida judge's decision to throw out the document's case on a technicality. We then switch gears to Canada where Frank offers his thoughts on the parallels between Biden's decision to not seek a second term and Prime Minister Trudeau's current dismal showing at the polls, suggesting that a decision on Trudeau's future will be made soon if he plans to end his run in 2025. We ended with a question about the possibility the new UK government will revisit Brexit, a decision Frank suggests ranks in the top 3 worst political decisions of the last half century. On the topic of separation votes, Frank discusses how he mobilized citizens of New Brunswick to join a rally in Montreal ahead of the Quebec separation vote in 1995, one of his prouder, yet nerve-racking moments as Premier.

Chapter Headings:

00:30 - Frank's Storied Career

05:33 - The End of President Biden

17:44 - Trump's Eventful Two Weeks

23:42 - The Biden-Trudeau Parallels

31:28 - Will the New Starmer Government in the UK Revisit Brexit?

36:24 - Mobilizing the Citizens of New Brunswick in 1995 to Save Canada

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Global Election Calendar

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Frank McKenna, Peter Haynes) — Thu, 20 Jun 2024 13:30:00 +0000

Episode 53 is all about elections. Frank first covers the upcoming twin bill of elections on the other side of the Atlantic starring the French and English. The former coming as quite a surprise to the market, and the latter appearing to be a foregone conclusion, with the only item left to decide being the future of the UK Conservative Party which is expected to be obliterated at the polls on July 4. In France, Frank questions President Macron's calculus for calling a surprise summer election. Believing he could be holding together a centrist coalition while being threatened on both flanks, with the right-wing National Rally party occupying first place in polling, and a left-wing coalition also leading the incumbent government. We then move on to discuss two recent important elections. First, Mexico and the success of out-going leader AMLO's hand-picked successor Claudia Sheinbaum, who bucked the global trend of incumbent government disruption in other elections. Then we discuss President Modi's inability to garner a majority victory in India despite having tailwinds, including a powerful social media campaign. Finally, Frank offers his opinion on the importance of the US Presidential debates, and Trump's never-ending Apprentice-like search for his November running mate.

Chapter Headings:

03:08 - Bank of Canada Rate Decision

06:18 - Frank's Hot Button Topics: Elections and Capital Gains

09:21 - Macron's Gambit

15:10 - Starmer's Steamroll in the UK

18:02 - Future of the Conservative Party

22:48 - AMLO's Protégé in Mexico

28:16 - Reining in Modi in India

33:13 - Importance of US Election Debates and Trump Running Mate

This podcast was recorded on June 18, 2024.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Trump, Trump, and More Trump…

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Peter Haynes, Frank McKenna) — Tue, 28 May 2024 15:00:00 +0000

Episode 52 takes us on a journey across several continents and covers a wide spectrum of topics. After remembering the legacy of his good friend and New Brunswick business icon Arthur Irving, who passed away recently, Frank covers the Sunak government's decision to call an early election in the U.K. and the trend toward authoritarian governments around the world, calling it a cyclical rather than secular trend. Frank checks in on new Argentine President Javier Milei's efforts to reduce the size of government and services in order to improve its financial position, a process that is complicated and requires compromise. He tells the U.S. Senators complaining to Trudeau about Canadian defense spending to stand down as the country's defense spending is moving in the right direction. Finally, he covers the U.S. election and suggests that despite his likely guilty verdict, Trump's opposition ought to change the narrative from "Trump is bad" to "Trump is going to get off".

Chapters

00:37 – Canada Loses Another Business Icon Arthur Irving

05:36 – Sunak's Surprise UK Election Call

12:03 – Is the Move to Authoritarian Leaders a Secular or Cyclical Change?

15:04 – Checking in on Argentina's President Javier Milei

20:34 – Bi-Partisan Letter From Senators to Trudeau on Defense Spending

24:39 – Trump the Martyr

This podcast was recorded on May 24, 2024.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Back to the Home Front in Canada

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Peter Haynes, Frank McKenna) — Wed, 24 Apr 2024 16:00:00 +0000

n Episode 51, we circle back to Canada and focus on some of the key issues impacting our beautiful country. After a quick discussion on the apparent de-escalation of hostilities between Iran and Israel, which Frank is hopeful is permanent, we spend most of the podcast on budget related matters. Frank discusses the government's calculus in choosing to increase inclusion rates on capital gains over a windfall tax on food or energy companies, and then applauds the government's decision to appoint Stephen Poloz to work with Canadian pension funds on investment opportunities domestically. He then breaks down the budget's $8.5 billion dollar commitment to housing and its increase in defense spending, a move that was greeted with applause by other NATO members, including the US. He finishes the podcast lamenting the government's failed messaging on its carbon tax and rebate program. On a positive note, Frank shows some in-season love to the Blue Jays for perhaps the first time in modern history.

This podcast was recorded on April 22, 2024.

Chapter Headings

0:52 - De-escalation in Middle East

8:22 - Ottawa Chooses Capital Gains over a Windfall Tax on Food or Energy

17:20 - Poloz on Pension Funds

25:00 - Canada Moving Closer to its 2% of GDP Target for Defense Spending

28:03 - Are We Spending Enough on Housing?

32:13 - The Failed Messaging for Canada's Carbon Tax and Rebate System

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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In Conversation with Chris Krueger – What to Watch for Ahead of the US Election?

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Frank McKenna, Peter Haynes, Chris Krueger) — Wed, 20 Mar 2024 14:30:00 +0000

In Episode 50, Frank invite's our colleague Chris Krueger to the podcast to help our listeners navigate the next 8 months until the November US Election. We cover a lot of ground in 45 minutes, including the importance of foreign policy on the US Election, Democratic pressure on Israeli leader Netanyahu to mitigate civilian casualties, how Biden can change the narrative on the US Economy, the Octogenarian age issue of the candidates, Trump's legal woes, and the potential for third party candidates to impact the outcome of the election. Finally, Frank takes a moment to remember the legacy of his good friend, former Prime Minister of Canada Brian Mulroney.

Chapter Headings

The Legacy of Canada's 18th Prime Minister Brian Mulroney

Importance of Foreign Policy on US Election

Can Biden's Position on Israel Flip Swing States?

Budget Issues: The Southern Border and Ukraine

Changing the Narrative on the US Economy

West, RFK Jr and Stein: The Impact of Third Party Candidates

Biden's Age and the SOTU

The Latest on Trump's Legal Woes

This podcast was recorded on March 18, 2024

Disclaimer

This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed.

To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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A Turning Point in the War in Ukraine

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Frank McKenna, Peter Haynes) — Tue, 27 Feb 2024 17:00:00 +0000

In this episode, Frank discusses the very active calendar of events in the War in Ukraine, Trump's wins and losses in the primaries and the courts respectively, along with recent developments in China as relations with the US continue to thaw. Frank also provides a history lesson on how close Canada came to owning the Turks and Caicos Islands and covers off some of the good news stories in global geopolitics.

Chapter Headings

5:26 - New Developments in the War in Ukraine

14:18 - Trump's Eventful Month – Can he pay his chits?

22:44 - Protests Erupt in Israel Calling for Netanyahu's Resignation

28:08 - What is New in China?

30:06 - Frank's back on the Jays Bandwagon – that didn't take long

This podcast was recorded on February 26, 2024.

Disclaimer

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Frank's 2024 Geopolitical Predictions

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Frank McKenna, Peter Haynes) — Wed, 31 Jan 2024 14:00:00 +0000

Back by popular demand, in Episode 48 Frank returns to the predictions game on 10 geopolitical topics important in Canada, the US and around the world in 2024. Topics covered in this predictions episode cover a wide ranging set of issues including: the likelihood that Prime Minister Trudeau continues to lead the Liberal Party, immigration issues in Canada and at the southern border the United States, the next phase of the Canada-India diplomatic row, as well as a complete analysis of the US election and former President Donald Trump's legal woes that will likely play a part in the election result on November 5th. We finish covering three global hot spots, the war in Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas dispute, and the likelihood North Korea moves from rhetoric to action in its tough talk with its neighbor in South Korea.

Chapter Headings

1:02 – 1. Will Liberal Leaders Tell Prime Minister Trudeau it is time to retire?

4:50 – 2. What happens to Canada-India Relations if and when Assassination Evidence is Made Public?

8:16 – 3. Immigration Problems for Canada and at the Southern Border of the US

19:16 - 4. Predicting the Outcome of Former President Trump's Legal Woes

25:06 - 5. Name the Democratic and Republican Leaders that Face off on September 16th at the First Presidential Debate?

25:29 – 6. Who Wins the US Election?

29:17 – 7. Who Controls the House and Senate after November 5th?

30:54 - 8. Is there an Off Ramp in 2024 to end the Russia-Ukraine Conflict?

33:32 - 9. Does the Israel-Hamas Conflict End this year and, if yes, then what is the catalyst?

36:50 - 10. Will North Korea Flex its Muscles on South Korea?

40:36 - Quick Hitters – Frank's Take on CPI, WTI, the S&P 500 and the Stanley Cup and World Series Champions

41:47 - A Review of 2023 – Frank's Winners and Losers

This podcast was recorded on January 29, 2024.

Disclaimer

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Ottawa Fighting Battles on Several Flanks in Canada

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Frank McKenna, Peter Haynes) — Tue, 19 Dec 2023 20:00:00 +0000

In our last episode before the calendar turns to 2024, the conversation begins in Israel where Prime Minister Netanyahu struggles to maintain support for his war against Hamas. Next, we shift to Russia, where President Putin warned his neighbor Finland, a recently minted NATO member, that he will be assigning military to the Russia-Finland border area despite acknowledging he has no territorial rights over NATO nations. Back in Canada, Frank is critical of Quebec's decision to raise language standards and tuition costs for out of province students, a blow to McGill and Concordia along with the City of Montreal who will suffer due to a lack of enrollment and corresponding reductions in revenue. The conversation then moves on to David Dodge's recent paper on improving productivity for Canada, a problem that Frank thinks is worthy of a Royal Commission. We finish with a review of Canada's proposed Cap and Trade system to address oil and gas emissions and a postmortem of Argentina's new President Javier Mileil's first week on the job.

Chapters

1:26 – Netanyahu's Western Support Crumbling

9:28 – Putin's Warning to Finland

14:50 – A Blow to English Speaking Universities in Quebec

18:28 – Solving Canada's Productivity Gap

26:00 – Canada's Cap and Trade Solution

31:30 – Mileil's First Week on the Job

This podcast was recorded on December 18, 2023.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-47. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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The Political Pendulum Shifts Right

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Peter Haynes, Frank McKenna) — Tue, 28 Nov 2023 19:36:02 +0000

Episode 46 covers a lot of geography. We start with a review of recent victories by right wing leaders in Argentina and Netherlands, which Frank believes is part of the natural pendulum swinging opposite incumbent center-left leadership amplified by Trump-related populist rhetoric. We spend a lot of time in Canada, first discussing Canada's position on the wrong side of NATO's defense spending targets and then with respect to the Liberal Party's recent Fall Economic Statement, in which the Government's target of "modest" deficits will be brought into question. We finish the Made in Canada discussion on more Alberta grievances, this time with respect to the legality of Federal net zero targets for Canada's electricity-grid. After Canada, Frank updates us on the thawing India-Canada relations; whether the Israel-Hamas war is contained; then ending on a positive note with a discussion on improving US-China relations.

Right Wing Victories in Netherlands, Argentina – 1:40

Western World Atrophy Towards Ukraine – 8:00

Canada's Defense Spending Problem- 14:00

More than Modest Deficits in Canada – 17:30

More Alberta Grievances – 27:50

US Follows Canada - Alleges Indian Plot to Kill Sikh American – 33:50

Is Israel-Hamas War Contained? – 37:20

Lowering the Temperature between Super Powers – 41:20

This podcast was recorded on November 27, 2023.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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The Washington Circus

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Peter Haynes, Frank McKenna, Chris Krueger) — Fri, 3 Nov 2023 15:53:19 +0000

Episode 45 comes at you straight from TD's 24th Annual Portfolio Management and Market Structure Conference, held November 2nd. Frank is joined on stage by Chris Krueger of TD Cowen's Washington Research Group for a panel discussion entitled The Washington Circus. Before Chris and Frank dig in on Washington, they first discuss the emerging threat of a broadening unrest in the Middle East, which Frank feels can and will be contained, but it is a dangerous situation. Chris plays the role of Washington Insider for an update on House negotiations for continued aid to Israel and Ukraine ahead of a potential Government shutdown on November 17th. Turning to the election cycle, Frank addresses the impact of third-party candidates such as RFK Jr., No Labels and Cornel West of the Green Party on both the Democrats and Republicans while Chris adds his thoughts on the likelihood of competition for Trump and/or Biden in the primaries. Frank finishes with an update on India-Canada relations and a passionate plea for Alberta to move on from the idea of separating from the CPP, earning him the first ever audience intra-session ovation in the 24-year history of our conference.

Containing the Israel-Hamas War – 3:35

The Future of Netanyahu – 16:50

An Election Cycle Update – 20:08

Gerrymandering 101 – 33:20

Frank's Message to our Prime Minister about CPP – 52:10

Canada-India – 55:30

This podcast was recorded on November 2, 2023.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-45. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Unpacking Canada's Diplomatic Row with India

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Peter Haynes, Frank McKenna) — Fri, 29 Sep 2023 13:30:00 +0000

Frank McKenna, a proud Canadian, shows his true passion for Canada in Episode 44 first defending Canada in its diplomatic dispute with India over the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian Member of the Sikh diaspora in Surrey, BC, then arguing against Alberta's potential separation from CPP and finally championing the partnership between The Federal Government and Indigenous communities for the soon to be finished Trans Mountain Pipeline. Frank believes Canada's actions are enough following the unfortunate incident during Ukrainian President Zelensky's parliamentary visit in Ottawa that has now been politicized in both Canada and Russia and he touches on the impact of a US government shutdown. The pod finishes up with Frank asking, perhaps rhetorically, for more cheerful topics next month – we make no promises.

Unpacking Canada's Diplomatic Row with India – 4:15

Canada's Embarrassment in Parliament – 20:25

Alberta's Report on Separating from CPP - 23:51

One Step Closer to Trans Mountain Pipeline Completion – 31:42

The US Government Shutdown – 37:56

This podcast was recorded on September 27, 2023.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-44. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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More of the Same

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Peter Haynes, Frank McKenna) — Wed, 23 Aug 2023 12:20:57 +0000

Episode 43 is entitled "More of the Same" because Frank returns to common threads from previous episodes namely Trudeau, climate, immigration, war, and Trump. Frank discusses recent meetings with members of the Prime Minister's cabinet who stop by Frank's residence in New Brunswick en route to this week's retreat in PEI. Top of mind items for Canada's government leaders include the public's growing belief that Ottawa is the primary cause of inflation, whether it is time to slow down on immigration in response to public pleas, and lack of affordable housing for 25-40 year old Canadians. Frank takes aim at last month's alarming Auditor General's report in Ontario on Greenbelt re-zoning, and the decision by the Ford government to press forward with re-zoning despite a growing outcry from opposition leaders. He also weighs in on Trump, who is again, front and center with a fourth indictment in Georgia. Finally, Frank finishes up talking summits, both at Camp David, and in South Africa, where BRIC members discuss options for reducing dependence on the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.

1:12 - Social Media's Impact on Natural Disasters

6:20 - Greenbelt Controversy in Ontario

11:56 - Trump – Indictment #4 – Will Supreme Court Be Ultimate Arbiter?

19:44 - RFK Jr – Legitimate Threat to Biden?

23:44 - Trudeau's Cabinet Retreat – Changing the Narrative on Inflation

28:29 - Southeast Asia Comes to Camp David – Poking China

30:30 - BRICS Summit – Takeaways

This podcast was recorded on August 22, 2023

To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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The Not So Summer Doldrums

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Peter Haynes, Frank McKenna) — Fri, 28 Jul 2023 13:50:08 +0000

In Episode 42, Frank checks in from his summer location in New Brunswick for a wide ranging discussion on a busy geopolitical calendar. We start close to home with a recap of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's recent speech to Frank's charity summer golf event on the East Coast. Not surprisingly, Clinton's remarks centered on US politics, including the prospect of a Donald Trump Republican Party nomination and the likelihood of a third party disruptor at the 2024 election. Frank compares the situation in Netanyahu's Israel to a 2nd Trump term in the Oval Office and suggests that no one should take for granted democratic norms in the Western world. After brief remarks on the NATO summit, we pivot to Canadian politics and discuss the Trudeau cabinet shuffle and its potential impact on the next party in power in Canada. Before we finish on the Blue Jays, Frank gets out his crystal ball for a very interesting look at the world from his lens 10 years from now.

1:32 - Secretary Clinton visits Frank's East Coast Charity Event

7:30 - The Prospects of a Third Party Disruptor in 2024

13:38 - The World Reacts to Netanyahu's Move to Weaken the 19:21 - Supreme Court in Israel

23:04 - Trudeau's Cabinet Shuffle

28:28 - Governing Canada with Just One Premier Wearing Liberal Stripes

31:55 - The Future of the World 10 Years from Now

This podcast was recorded on July 27, 2023

To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Breaking Down a Russian Coup Attempt

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Peter Haynes, Frank McKenna) — Tue, 27 Jun 2023 19:53:28 +0000

In Episode 41, Frank breaks down the startling developments that unfolded in Russia over the weekend, with the mercenary Russian army known as the Wagner Group apparently turning on President Putin and leading to a near civil war. We switch to US politics where Frank downplays the risk of an uprising should former President Trump be sent to jail for one of his many legal issues. Other topics discussed include the recent trip to China by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Canadian wildfires, and David Dodge's criticism of Canada's immigration policies.

1:47 - What is Going On in Russia?

11:45 - The Risk of a Trump Uprising

16:45 - Blinken's China Trip – A Good Result

21:23 - Canadian Wildfires

28:45 - David Dodge's Criticism of Canada's Immigration Policies

This podcast was recorded on June 26, 2023

To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Rona visits the Pod for a Discussion on the Alberta Election and Federal Politics

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Peter Haynes, Frank McKenna, Rona Ambrose) — Thu, 25 May 2023 16:30:00 +0000

Frank is joined by his colleague at TD Securities, The Honorable Rona Ambrose, for a wide-ranging discussion on Canadian politics including the upcoming Alberta Election, where a recent own goal by Rachel Notley on corporate taxes might be the catalyst for a UCP victory next week.

Rona and Frank also discuss politics in Ottawa, including the assertion by former Prime Minister Jean Chretien that Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre's policies are even right of Stephen Harper. Rona finishes up with some advice on social media for aspiring politicians, especially females.

2:00 - Handicapping the Alberta Election

8:56 - Smith's Pivot, Notley's Own Goal on Taxes

13:38 - What Ottawa is Watching in Alberta?

20:37 - Is Poilievre Right of Harper?

29:30 - Will Trudeau Run in 2025?

37:42 - Canada - China Diplomatic Tit for Tat - is it Over?

43:02 - Politics and Social Media

This podcast was recorded on May 23, 2023.

This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed.

To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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In Conversation with Chris Krueger, Washington Research Group

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Chris Krueger, Frank McKenna, Peter Haynes) — Wed, 26 Apr 2023 14:49:49 +0000

In Episode 39, Frank invites his new colleague from TD Cowen's Washington Research Group, Chris Krueger, to the monthly podcast for a discussion on US politics. The two geopolitical experts discuss potential solutions to the pending debt ceiling, how Trump's legal woes work to his advantage and who might be his credible competitors in the Republican Primary. Frank covers some high level conversation topics with business leaders, and both Chris and Frank provide names of their ideal Presidential candidates.

2:00 – What Frank is Hearing from Business Leaders?

5:10 – Solving the Debt Ceiling Before Doom

16:40 – Trump's Competition in the Republican Primary

24:35 – Trump's Legal Woes Become His Running Mate

28:20 - Will Biden Face Competition in the Democratic Primary?

38:10 – The Ideal Presidential Candidate

This podcast was recorded on April 24, 2023

To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Geopolitics Gone Crazy

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Peter Haynes, Frank McKenna) — Thu, 30 Mar 2023 14:30:00 +0000

In Episode 38, Frank returns from a busy schedule of travelling the world this past month and provides a live eye view on several important hot button geopolitical topics. He has just returned from a visit to the Middle East, where he met with senior political figures in Israel and Jordan, all of whom condemned the move by Israeli leader Netanyahu to condense power inside his government. Frank also shares his views on French President Macron's decision to take on the controversial topic of pension reform which resulted in countrywide protests against a plan that means public sector employees will need to work two more years before qualifying for a full pension. Additionally, he weighs in on government actions to support banks, and also the recent State Visit to Ottawa by President Biden, which Frank argues was a unequivocal success with great tone from the top.

Chapter Headings

1:00 - Biden State Visit to Canada

8:00 - Canada's Federal Budget Takeaways

11:00 - Poilievre's Platform Plans

15:50 - Israel – Frank's on the Ground Perspective

22:30 - Macron Pulls the Pin on Pension Reform

32:10 - Government Reaction to a New Bank Crisis

This podcast was recorded on March 28, 2023.

To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Where is Roxham road?

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Peter Haynes, Frank McKenna) — Mon, 6 Mar 2023 15:30:00 +0000

In Episode 37, Frank deep dives the immigration complexities of North America, in particular the issue of refugees seeking asylum from the USA into Canada via irregular ports of entry not covered under existing immigration agreements between the two countries. He admits there is no easy solution to the US's Southern border refugee problem which is complicated by the fact it is not just Mexicans using its border to enter the US illegally. Frank discusses the rhetoric between Russia and Ukraine at the one year anniversary of the War and explains why an audit of Western Aid during a war is all but impossible.He finishes with a look at the Dominion Voting Machines lawsuit of FOX News, which judged in the court of public opinion is a slam dunk victory for the plaintiff.

Chapter Headings

1:55 - Roxham Road Immigration Leakage

8:50 – The US's Immigration Issues its Southern Border

15:10 - Intervention in Haiti

22:05 - Russia-Ukraine War – the One Year Anniversary

25:50 - The Audit Process for Ukrainian Aid

30:31 - FOX and the Dominion Lawsuit Texts

35:00 - The Poorly Named Inflation Reduction Act

This podcast was recorded on March 2, 2023.

To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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The Never-Ending Confidential Documents File

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (TD Securities) — Wed, 1 Feb 2023 19:30:00 +0000

Episode 36 returns to addressing the geopolitical topics of the day. The episode begins with a discussion of the document storage security breaches by various important US politicians, a story that is keeping cable television political commentators busy. Frank also addresses the topic du jour at this year's World Economic Forum, geo-economic fragmentation on the back of the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine, the declining relations between China, and tensions between the US and Europe over the US's generous subsidies for electric vehicles.We finish up in North America discussing infrastructure investing in Canada, and the US debt ceiling, including talk on Wall Street of a solution that allows debts to be paid to bondholders exclusively while the government works to solve the debate.

Chapters

0:48 - Are All Document Breaches Created Equal?

11:15 - Geo-Economic Fragmentation

17:09 - Is Sending Tanks to Ukraine Crossing a Red Line?

21:31 - The Debt Ceiling and "Payment Prioritization"

25:40 - Will Canada Search for Partners for Infrastructure?

This podcast was recorded on January 30, 2023.

To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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10 Predictions for Geopolitics in 2023

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (TD Securities) — Mon, 9 Jan 2023 14:52:46 +0000

The start of a new year is always a great time for predictions, so we decided to challenge Frank to provide his thoughts on ten of the most important geopolitical matters impacting Canada and the rest of the world order. Frank does not disappoint and while not everything you will hear in the next 45 minutes will make you smile, there is some glimmer of hope on the horizon for both politics and the economy.

1:33 - The War in Ukraine

7:53 -China and its Relations with the West

10:06 - The Next Country Threatening Global Unrest

12:10 - Can the Freedom Caucus be Tamed?

16:10 - Will Donald Trump be Indicted?

18:30 - Will Joe Biden Run Again in 2024?

23:52 - Trump's Competitors for Republican Leadership

26:05 - Will Poilievre Lead the Polls at the End of 2023?

32:17 - Is Elon Musk Lord Vader?

35:22 - The Alberta Election – Smith or Notley?

This podcast was recorded on January 5, 2023.

To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Donald Trump and His Legal Woes

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (TD Securities) — Tue, 29 Nov 2022 20:30:00 +0000

In Episode 34, Frank breaks down the legal woes of Donald Trump and is left to wonder "is it possible to be President of the United States while in jail?" Of all the cases in front of the former President, Frank thinks it might be the otherwise innocuous and strange situation of the Mar-a-logo documents that is Trump's biggest legal risk. Frank discusses the implications of a split Congress, indicating that this topic is top of mind with investors and corporate clients post the mid-term elections. He is watching the Georgia run-off for the 100th Senate seat very closely as a Democratic victory would reduce the influence of Joe Manchin and other senators at the end of the spectrum and would allow the Democrats greater control of Senate Committees. Turning to Canadian politics, Frank is not as sure as his colleague, The Honorable Rona Ambrose, that the new Premier of Alberta, Danielle Smith, will win when the province goes to the polls next May.

Chapter Headings

1:20 – The Number 1 Topic Dominating Frank's Investor and Corporate Conversations

4:30 – Donald Trump's Bad Month – What Legal Issue is Trump's Biggest Worry?

17:00 – Mid-Terms – Practical Implications of a Split Congress

24:55 – Frank vs Rona – Who Wins Alberta?

29:35 – Frank Remains Steadfast "There will NOT be a Windfall Tax on Oil and Gas"

33:50 – The New UK Government – Adults are Now in the Room

This podcast was recorded on November 25, 2022.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-34. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Talking Canadian Politics with Rona Ambrose

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Peter Haynes, Rona Ambrose) — Thu, 24 Nov 2022 19:33:56 +0000

Episode 33 of our monthly podcast series on Geopolitics is a special bonus for our listeners. In this episode, we listen in on a recent interview with The Honorable Rona Ambrose conducted at our 23rd Annual TD Securities Portfolio Management and Market Structure Conference held earlier this month. In this episode, Rona tackles several important topics on the minds of Canadians including the leadership race in her home province of Alberta and the 411 on the Federal Conservative Party's new leader Pierre Poilievre. While Rona's Conservative Party background differs from Frank McKenna's Liberal upbringing, the two former leaders and current TD Securities leaders have tremendous mutual respect. That said, we look forward getting Frank's take on Rona's view that both Danielle Smith and Pierre Poilievre are electable.

This podcast was recorded on November 3, 2022.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-33. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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The UK's Lost Trusst in its Leader

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Peter Haynes, Frank McKenna) — Thu, 20 Oct 2022 16:00:00 +0000

In Episode 32, Frank addresses the rhetoric from Alberta's new Premier Danielle Smith who he believes will need to tone down the message in order to be electable next May. The theme of inflation is prevalent, with Frank touching on rising mortgage rates, OPEC's politically motivated decision to cut production and its impact on U.S. mid-terms and the mess caused by U.K. Prime Minister Truss' hugely inflationary and now unwound mini-budget. Frank admits that Russia-Ukraine is at a stalemate with no runway for an off ramp, as they head into winter. Despite all the negative press, Frank talks about his positive outlook on the world as whole, acting as a reminder to take a step back when we are overwhelmed by an endless stream of negative news headlines.

Chapter Headings:

The 411 on Danielle Smith (1:18)

Will Rising Mortgage Rates Lead to a Housing Crisis? (9:40)

OPEC's Politically Motivated Production Cut (13:34)

US Mid-Terms (15:58)

Liz Truss's Mess (21:10)

Something Positive (31:20

This podcast was recorded on October 18, 2022.

For relevant disclosures, visit: https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-32. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Russia's Nuclear Threat

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Peter Haynes, Frank McKenna) — Wed, 28 Sep 2022 13:00:00 +0000

In Episode 31, Frank and Peter catch up on world events, including the war in Ukraine and Putin's saber rattling over nuclear weapons, the changing political landscape in Europe and the U.K., the U.S. mid-terms and the Conservative Party's new leader in Canada. Frank provides a view from Cap Pele of the damage from Hurricane Fiona, which he considers to be the strongest storm to hit landfall in Canada in recorded history. He also shares his perspective on why U.S. leaders are unable to change the narrative on immigration -- from one of vitriol to one of need given changing demographics . Peter asks Frank his favourite fishing story from New Brunswick's famous Miramichi River and the two of them finish up with the Blue Jays as we head into the play-off run.

Hurricane Fiona – The Strongest Storm in Canadian History (0:43)

The War in Ukraine – Putin's Nuclear Threat (5:50)

The Mess that Awaits Liz Truss (17:35)

November Mid-Terms (21:55)

Republican Political Stunt over Immigration (25:30)

Mulroney's Advice to Poilievre (33:42)

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Poking the Bear

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Frank McKenna, Peter Haynes) — Tue, 23 Aug 2022 17:22:27 +0000

In Episode 30, Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair, TD Securities, examines geopolitical issues south of the 49th parallel, starting with Nancy Pelosi's controversial trip to Taiwan and the Chinese Government's reaction. Frank also touches on Merrick Garland's decision to search Former President Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence, and how it impacts Republican perception of the Department of Justice. In another take, while it was a good month for President Biden, Frank comments on whether those positive developments will move the needle on Biden's approval rating. Frank concludes the episode with an update on the abortion vote in Kansas, including a surprising stance in a traditionally red state. For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

A Three-Foot Putt

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Peter Haynes, Frank McKenna) — Wed, 27 Jul 2022 18:30:00 +0000

On Episode 29, we cover a wide range of topics, including the difficulties of air travel, and Canada's reputation for being one of the worst countries for delayed flights. Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair, TD Securities, discusses the peaceful overthrow of the Government of Sri Lanka, and he reveals which emerging countries are on his watchlist for similar uprisings. Frank also discusses Boris Johnson's exit from UK politics, and his reaction to the Bank of Canada's move to increase interest rates by 100 basis points. Frank concludes the episode with an analysis of the January 6 hearings, including his thoughts on whether the Department of Justice will formally charge President Trump.

Chapter Headings

1:55 – Summer & Air Travel Challenges

6:22 – Explaining A Three-Foot Putt

9:45 – The Implications of The Uprising in Sri Lanka

15:25 – Boris Johnson's Exit from UK Politics

19:20 – Will Trump be Charged?

21:20 – The Bank of Canada's Surprise Interest Rate Hike

Disclaimer

For relevant disclosures, visit https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-29

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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War, Inflation and the Supreme Court

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Peter Haynes, Frank McKenna) — Wed, 29 Jun 2022 15:30:00 +0000

In this episode, Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair, TD Securities, takes aim at the highly politicized Supreme Court now that the Republicans are holding a supermajority. How will a very right-wing agenda of reforms to climate change, abortion, and gun laws sit with the majority of Americans, and what does it signal about the Supreme Court? In terms of recent updates on abortion laws, Frank does not believe President Biden's sliding ratings will change ahead of the U.S. midterm elections in November. Frank also addresses potential land mines that could be triggered in the Ukraine-Russia war, and he hints that Putin may end up backed into a corner, further complicating the situation. Frank concludes the episode by citing feedback from business leaders and politicians on the hot topic of inflation and the looming threat of a recession.

Chapter Headings

2:21 – The Supreme Court and Roe v. Wade

15:50 – The Supreme Court and West Virginia v. Environmental Protection Agency

19:54 – Will the Supreme Court Help Biden's Popularity?

24:03 – Potential Land Mines in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

29:10 – Will the Canadian Government Tax Excessive Profits in the Energy Sector?

35:52 – What are Business Leaders and Politicians Saying About Inflation?

Disclaimer

For relevant disclosures, visit https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-28

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Election Issues in North America with Special Guest: Rona Ambrose, Deputy Chairwoman, and former Conservative Party Leader

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Peter Haynes, Frank McKenna, Rona Ambrose) — Wed, 1 Jun 2022 12:30:00 +0000

In Episode 27, Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair, TD Securities, is joined by the Honourable Rona Ambrose. Together, they cover a host of election issues across North America, including the Conservative Party Leadership Race, the Ontario Provincial Election, and the bombshell announcement of Jason Kenney's resignation as Alberta Premier. Frank also touches on the recent tragic events in Uvalde, Texas. He expresses his views on gun reform in the U.S., and he outlines whether this event will be a ballot issue in the upcoming U.S. midterm elections. In another discussion, Rona does not believe the leaked Roe v. Wade decision, or recent gun violence, will impact Canadian elections in the coming months. On the global front, Frank offers his perspective on the war in Ukraine, and megatrends that are on the horizon, including energy, agriculture, and pharmaceutical independence, as well as deglobalization. Inflation is also a main talking point, as politicians everywhere confront this topic for the first time in 30 years.

This long-form podcast contains incredible insights from former political leaders that remain connected to the current geopolitical landscape. It is a must-listen for investors who are trying to navigate critical events in the day-to-day markets.

Chapter Headings

1:15 - An Update on War in Ukraine

8:35 - The Rise of Putin Imitators

17:15 - Energy Independence and Other Megatrends

24:30 - Inflation: Is it Time to Fire Central Bankers En Masse?

35:55 - The Conservative Leadership Race

43:18 - Gun Violence and the U.S. Midterm Elections

51:30 - The Surprise Resignation of Jason Kenney

56:26 - The Ontario Election

Disclaimer

For relevant disclosures, visit https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-27

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Holding the West Together

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Peter Haynes, Frank McKenna) — Tue, 26 Apr 2022 19:00:00 +0000

In Episode 26, Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair, TD Securities, tackles the political implications of long-term inflation. He reminds listeners of the 1970s and 1980s when inflation was the number one ballot issue in Canada. Frank also provides a high-level perspective on the war in Ukraine, indicating that the West is "draining the swamp" by isolating Russia and cutting off its lucrative supply of energy to Europe. Frank goes on to highlight how Emmanuel Macron's victory over Marine Le Pen, the far-right presidential candidate in France, reduces the risk of a split with the West. Frank details how this could also impact the search for alternative energy solutions, including nuclear energy. Frank concludes the episode by offering sound advice to corporate executives regarding the ESG debate, making an important connection to Ukraine's sovereignty.

Chapter Heading Times

0:43 - The Political Implications of Long-Term Inflation

10:37 - Canada's Time to Shine

16:45 - The War Update

22:40 - Advice on Managing the Ever-Evolving ESG Debate

28:10 - What Macron's Win Means for Europe

31:10 - The Ontario Election: Will Doug Ford Secure Another Majority Government?

Disclaimer

For relevant disclosures, visit https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-26

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Russia's Next Move

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Peter Haynes, Frank McKenna) — Tue, 29 Mar 2022 20:00:00 +0000

In this Episode, Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair, TD Securities, takes a post-mortem look at the G7 Leaders' Summit held in Brussels over the weekend. Frank suggests that Biden's comments on the regime change in Russia were unhelpful, and may be forgotten. He also analyzes Russia's retreat from Kyiv, hinting that if Russia is acting rationally, this may signal a potential end to the conflict. With Russia facing ongoing ostracization from the Western World, Frank believes Canada should take a leading role in reshaping the global economy, with an important nod to C.D. Howe. Frank concludes the episode by examining the recent Liberal-NDP deal, and what it means for Prime Minister Trudeau's next move.

Chapter Headings

0:50 – Biden Goes Off Script in Poland

8:55 – When is Economic War an Act of War?

11:44 – Explaining Russia's Retreat from Kyiv

18: 30 – Has Chancellor Merkel's Legacy Been Tarnished by Putin?

23:22 – Canada's C. D. Howe Moment

33:20 – The Liberal-NDP Deal

Disclaimer

For relevant disclosures, visit https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-25

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Welcome to Geopolitics with Frank McKenna

tdsmulteam@tdsecurities.com (Peter Haynes, Frank McKenna) — Tue, 29 Mar 2022 13:09:35 +0000

Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair at TD Securities and former Premier of New Brunswick and Canadian Ambassador to the United States, discusses geopolitical issues of the day in this monthly series hosted by Peter Haynes, Managing Director at TD Securities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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