Moody’s Talks - Global Economy Unwrapped

Risks Everywhere

Tue, 31 Mar 2026 20:00:00 +0000

Gaurav and the GEU team take listeners on a tour of the global risk landscape. The discussion begins in the Middle East, where conflict is disrupting energy markets, creating significant security concerns and weighing on growth. Meanwhile, Asia's reliance on Gulf energy collides with higher prices, supply‑chain strains and trade tensions – even as the AI‑driven export boom offers a buffer. The tour ends in Europe, where fragile growth and policy trade‑offs underline how global shocks are becoming increasingly intertwined.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Pork, Prices and Politics

brandingadmin@moodys.com (Gaurav Ganguly, Stefan Angrick, Denise Cheok) — Tue, 24 Mar 2026 20:00:00 +0000

Gaurav, Denise and Stefan meet to dig into the impact of the Middle East conflict on APAC economies. They discuss which countries could eventually run into trouble if the energy and food price shock drags on, and what governments can do to mitigate the fallout. The conversation then turns to China and the updated priorities set out at this year’s Two Sessions meeting. How does Beijing view the spillover from the Middle East conflict? Could China benefit from the U.S. being preoccupied elsewhere? And why do pork prices matter so much for China’s economy?

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Japan Outlook: Oil Risk and Summit Stakes

Tue, 17 Mar 2026 20:00:00 +0000

GEU sits down with David Boling, Principal at The Asia Group, to unpack what Japan is walking into as Prime Minister Takaichi heads to Washington and conflict in the Middle East rattles energy markets. Oil supply chains are under strain, the yen wobbles, and U.S. President Donald Trump shows no sign of easing his tariff instincts. Japan clearly has its work cut out. Can Tokyo still lean on old alliances and familiar playbooks in a world that feels more fractured and transactional? Boling walks through the risks and what Japan needs to get right.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Oil Without a Way Out

brandingadmin@moodys.com (Gaurav Ganguly, Kamil Kovar, Stefan Angrick) — Tue, 10 Mar 2026 20:00:00 +0000

Gaurav, Kamil and Stefan unpack the latest developments in the Middle East conflict and what they mean for the global economy. The world still runs on oil, and Middle East producers are keen to sell, but the Strait of Hormuz blockage is squeezing supply routes and pushing storage higher, with production cuts looming. The team asks what all of this means for Europe, APAC and the broader global outlook, weighing up winners and losers. In markets moving by the hour, even keeping track of the day of the week has become a challenge.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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A Tense Situation in the Middle East

Tue, 3 Mar 2026 21:30:00 +0000

GEU unpacks the broader fallout of the strikes against Iran. Energy prices have jumped, and a risk-off sentiment prevails in markets. There is a danger that the situation could get worse. Iran has retaliated, and a number of countries in the region have come under attack. Despite the worrying news, the team explains why it believes the conflict will end in a matter of weeks and why the global economy will prove resilient. And while strikes across the region are alarming, Gulf Cooperation Council economies have sufficient depth and resilience, so the regional economic hit should also remain small.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Global Economy Unwrapped

brandingadmin@moodys.com (Moody’s Analytics) — Wed, 25 Feb 2026 11:16:38 +0000

Join Gaurav Ganguly, chief international economist at Moody’s Analytics, as he unpacks the forces shaping the global economy. In Global Economy Unwrapped, Gaurav is joined by members of Moody’s Analytics economic research team to discuss key indicators, underlying trends, and evolving risks—offering sharp, data-driven insights from a global perspective.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Tariff Trouble and the Dollar Dilemma

Tue, 24 Feb 2026 21:00:00 +0000

Gaurav and the GEU crew break down the U.S. Supreme Court decision striking down President Trump's sweeping global tariffs, and what his replacement 15% tariff means for trade, supply chains, and global growth. The team debates who wins, who loses, and whether firms will rush to front-load shipments again before barriers rise anew. The conversation then turns to the dollar. What could trigger a sudden depreciation, and how would it ripple through balance sheets, trade, and the real economy?

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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U.K. Twists and Turns

brandingadmin@moodys.com (David Muir, Gaurav Ganguly, Andrew Hunter) — Tue, 17 Feb 2026 22:00:00 +0000

David and Andrew join Gaurav to discuss the latest U.K. economic data and the outlook. While U.K. economic prospects remain quite subdued, the unemployment rate should level off this year, and an imminent easing in the inflation rate is a notable bright spot. Another rate cut by the Bank of England looks to be just around the corner. However, the return of political uncertainty is a less welcome development. The team also touches on investment in artificial intelligence and its implications for employment in the U.K.’s services-oriented economy.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Asia Spotlight: Oil, Trade and Tariffs

Tue, 10 Feb 2026 22:00:00 +0000

Gaurav, Suren, Stefan and Denise get together to unpack a flurry of trade developments in Asia. The U.S. and India announce a trade deal that cut tariffs from 50% to 25%, but with scant details. The team discuss the possibility of India halting purchases of Russian oil and committing to $500 billion in U.S. goods. What would a shift towards Venezuelan oil look like? Elsewhere, Taiwan reaches its own trade agreement with Washington, while South Korea faces higher U.S. tariffs after delays in legislating its deal. The team rounds up with a quick discussion on unusual currency movements in the region.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Greenland, Green Shoots

Tue, 3 Feb 2026 22:00:00 +0000

Gaurav and the EMEA team are back for a surprisingly upbeat roundup of all things Europe. Barbara and Kamil discuss the better-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP figures, with even Germany finally showing signs of a revival. With the business surveys improving and Germany’s huge fiscal package set to feed through, is the euro zone economy set for more robust growth in 2026 than previously thought? Meanwhile, the immediate crisis over Greenland appears to have faded with President Trump dropping his tariff threats, but Andrew questions whether this was driven more by domestic U.S. politics rather than Europe’s response. Finally, the team debate whether the EU-India trade deal could mark a turning point in Europe’s push to reduce its dependence on the U.S.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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How to talk to your dog about 30-year JGBs

brandingadmin@moodys.com (Denise Cheok, Stefan Angrick, Gaurav Ganguly) — Tue, 27 Jan 2026 22:00:00 +0000

Gaurav, Denise, and Stefan get together to discuss what drove Asia-Pacific in 2025 and what lies ahead in 2026. Exports surprised on the upside, with China posting a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus despite higher U.S. tariffs. Denise points to rerouting and shifting supply chains, while Gaurav argues that Chinese competitiveness does much of the work. The outlook for 2026 looks far less comfortable. Geopolitics and tariffs dominate the risks, with U.S.-China relations facing a key test ahead of the planned Trump-Xi meeting in April. Tensions closer at home are another concern, as Beijing ramps up its diplomatic feud with Japan through new export restrictions and tighter rare earth screening. This hasn’t hurt the popularity of Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi, who has called a snap election that will likely see her party gain seats. But volatile bond markets and an oversold yen complicate the year ahead and leave Stefan fielding calls from “everyone and their dog” about JGBs.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Could Greenland derail European growth?

Tue, 20 Jan 2026 22:30:00 +0000

Gaurav is joined by Barbara, Andrew and Kamil for a deep dive discussion on the European outlook. Will 2026 be the year that euro zone growth finally picks up momentum? The team offer a number of reasons for optimism, including the fading impact from last year’s U.S. tariffs, lower interest rates, an apparent upturn in the global industrial cycle and the huge fiscal boost set to feed through in Germany. But as the rapidly-evolving crisis over Greenland illustrates, there are still plenty of ways this cautiously optimistic outlook could be derailed.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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From Tariffs to Territorial Expansion

Tue, 13 Jan 2026 22:00:00 +0000

Gaurav and the GEU team unpack the key risks facing the global economy in 2026, but it soon becomes clear that economic forces risk being sidelined by geopolitics. How will the extraordinary U.S. actions in Venezuela affect oil markets and could it embolden Russia or China to make similar moves? Will the U.S. really seek to annex Greenland? And will 2026 bring more tariff pain, or is territorial expansion by the major powers now a bigger threat? With AI and a frothy looking U.S. stock market adding to the uncertainty, the team warn that 2026 is shaping up to be another turbulent year for the global economy.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Jingle Bells, China Sells

Tue, 23 Dec 2025 22:00:00 +0000

Andrew, Barbara, Denise, and Stefan join Gaurav for a festive deep dive into global manufacturing. They explore how China became the world’s workshop, climbing the value chain and reshaping the development model pioneered by Japan and South Korea. The conversation tackles China’s dominance in green tech, its implications for global investment, and whether emerging markets like Brazil and Vietnam can carve out their own niches. The team also asks if globalisation has gone too far, and what that means for the future of trade.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Globalisation Remains a Powerful Force

Tue, 16 Dec 2025 22:00:00 +0000

Professor Kazuto Suzuki of the University of Tokyo, and Director of the Institute of Geoeconomics joins GEU to discuss the future of globalisation. A wide-ranging discussion ensues which looks back over 2025 and looks ahead over the next few years. Globalisation remains an unstoppable force, despite fears that policy will be increasingly used as a weapon by countries to protect their geopolitical and economic interests. For the Global South in particular, the future continues to look bright.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Europe Roundup: Growth Perks Up as Russia-Ukraine Talks Stall

Tue, 9 Dec 2025 22:00:00 +0000

Gaurav and the EMEA team return to unpack a busy few weeks of economic and geopolitical news. The latest data suggest the euro zone economy is showing signs of life, but the continued reluctance of consumers to spend remains a concern. The discussion turns to the U.S. and Russia’s bombshell 28-point peace plan for Ukraine and the whirlwind of negotiations that have ensued. While a lasting resolution to the conflict still looks further away than ever, the team outline the troubling implications for European security of the U.S. administration’s growing interest in investment deals with Russia.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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U.K. Budget Blues

brandingadmin@moodys.com (David Muir, Gaurav Ganguly, Andrew Hunter) — Tue, 2 Dec 2025 22:08:01 +0000

Gaurav is joined by Andrew and David to unpack the economic implications of the U.K. budget. After weeks of speculation and rumours of painful tax hikes, the government’s latest fiscal plans imply a less severe tightening than many had feared. But the team struggle to identify anything in the budget likely to move the needle on the U.K.’s longer-term growth prospects. And although Chancellor Rachel Reeves looks to have survived her latest test by the bond markets, there are still plenty of reasons for concern over the U.K.’s public finances.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Where Things Are Made and Where Things Are Bought

brandingadmin@moodys.com (Denise Cheok, Stefan Angrick, Gaurav Ganguly) — Wed, 26 Nov 2025 15:27:13 +0000

Gaurav, Denise and Stefan unpack U.S. President Trump’s late-October swing through Asia and what it means for who makes what—and who buys it. The centrepiece was the Trump-Xi meeting, which produced a brief ceasefire in the tariff fight and set the stage for another round of talks in early 2026. In Southeast Asia, Trump signed four market-access and procurement deals that overwhelmingly favoured the U.S., while his stops in Japan and Korea delivered more photo-ops than breakthroughs. The team asks whether any of this can really shift the structural imbalance between the world’s producer, China, and the world’s buyer, the U.S. They also wrestle with the practicalities of countries committing to buy planes Boeing can’t build, and whether those U.S.-bound investment promises deserve a seat at the G20 table.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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LatAm Elections: As the Pendulum Swings

brandingadmin@moodys.com (Juan Pablo Fuentes, Jesse Rogers, Gaurav Ganguly) — Tue, 18 Nov 2025 22:00:00 +0000

LatAm team members Juan Pablo Fuentes and Jesse Rogers join Gaurav to take stock of the 2025-2026 electoral cycle. Gaurav and Juan Pablo discuss the economic landscape in Argentina following Javier Milei’s midterm victory. The conversation then turns to Lula, tariffs, and the economic outlook for Brazil. Jesse falls for Lula’s recent charm offensive. The discussion concludes with a discussion of Latin America’s medium-term prospects, and potential silver linings of upcoming elections in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru.

Click here for a link to the latest LatAm webinar

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Globalisation: Battered and Bruised but not Broken

Tue, 11 Nov 2025 22:12:02 +0000

In this episode, Gaurav and the team tackle a critical question: what does the future hold for globalisation? They explore how the U.S. has upended the world order this year—through tariffs, brinkmanship, and the weaponisation of economic policy—yet global growth has proved more resilient than expected. The discussion also delves into the global spillovers of U.S.-China tensions, from rare earths to semiconductors and the enduring dominance of the dollar. Will the world settle into a unipolar, bipolar, or fragmented order? Tune in for a deep dive into the forces reshaping today’s global economy.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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A Middle East Story: Peace, Oil, Sanctions and Growth

Tue, 28 Oct 2025 21:00:00 +0000

Gaurav, Suren, Charlie, and Aidan explore the new peace in the Middle East. They start with the newly agreed twenty-point peace plan between Israel and Hamas and explore its regional implications. Despite limited details and timelines, the ceasefire has held and advanced further than previous efforts—particularly in terms of hostage returns. While full implementation remains distant, all parties are still engaged. The conversation then shifts to Iran, including peace efforts, U.S. sanctions, and the waning influence of Iran and its proxies. The team also examines the Houthis’ disruption of shipping routes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, followed by a discussion on oil price stability amid escalating regional tensions. In closing, the conversation reflects on the resilience of GCC economies, which have defied regional geopolitical instability to attract global capital and deliver strong growth.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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The European Roundup: French Chaos and Manufacturing Woes

Tue, 21 Oct 2025 21:00:00 +0000

In this episode, Gaurav, Barbara, Andrew, and Kamil break down Europe’s latest economic and political events. They begin with France’s ongoing political saga—where recent developments have reduced immediate instability but left deeper issues unresolved, casting further doubt on the government’s fiscal recovery plans. The team then explores the impact that U.S. pharmaceutical tariffs will have on Europe and on the Continent's long-term investment outlook. Finally, they turn to industrial production data, underscoring the persistent weakness in manufacturing as the early-year boost from frontloading continues to fade.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Pharma Tariffs Not a Panacea for All ills

brandingadmin@moodys.com (Stefan Angrick, Denise Cheok, Gaurav Ganguly) — Tue, 14 Oct 2025 21:00:00 +0000

Gaurav, Stefan and Denise meet face-to-face for the first time to unpack the flurry of developments shaping the Asia-Pacific. Front and centre are fresh U.S. tariffs targeting pharmaceuticals, heavy-duty trucks, and furniture. Indonesia and the EU sign a long-awaited free trade agreement, while Japan’s ruling LDP looks set to shift further right with its first potential female prime minister. On the data front, the team delve into export and industrial production numbers as the effect of frontloading finally wanes for most economies. Taiwan’s AI boom however, continues to defy gravity. Plus: what makes a cabinet a cabinet? The team gets briefly philosophical in between the data dump.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Central Banks' Jedi Mind Tricks

Tue, 7 Oct 2025 21:00:00 +0000

Kamil, Stefan, Denise, and David join Gaurav to discuss the rationale for central bank independence and the goals of monetary policy. The discussion then turns to decisions made by central banks in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region after the pandemic, when central banks grappled with surging inflation.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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A Manufacturing Odyssey

Tue, 30 Sep 2025 21:00:00 +0000

In the first episode of a mini-series on global manufacturing, Gaurav and the team take a sweeping look at the sector’s evolution—from its roots in the liberalization and technological breakthroughs of the late 20th century to the geopolitical tensions shaping it today. They explore how different development models across Asia, Europe, and the U.S. have created distinct strengths and vulnerabilities, and how China’s rise—accelerated by its entry into the WTO in 2001—and recent headwinds have reshaped the global landscape. The conversation then turns to the changing nature of supply chains, the increasing irrelevance of the WTO, and the impact of shifting global consumption patterns. Finally, they examine the modern tech frontier—from semiconductors to clean tech—and the new geopolitics of manufacturing, including Europe’s energy shock and the rise of Chinese EVs.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Mind the (output) gap

brandingadmin@moodys.com (Denise Cheok, Gaurav Ganguly, Sarah Tan) — Tue, 23 Sep 2025 21:00:00 +0000

Gaurav, Sarah, and Denise dive into the latest run of data out of ASEAN, where frontloading has helped prop up growth in the first half of the year. But with U.S. tariffs finally kicking in from August, the team weighs the risks to the region’s second-half outlook. Inflation remains moderate and within central bank targets, prompting a wave of monetary easing amid a weaker U.S. dollar. Still, growth forecasts have been slashed across much of the region. The team also unpacks the concept of output gaps and what they reveal about ASEAN’s trajectory in the years to come.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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No Fiscal Free Lunch

Tue, 16 Sep 2025 21:00:00 +0000

Brittany Merollo joins the team to discuss France's ongoing political shake-up and the appointment of a new prime minister. They assess the implications for the 2026 budget, the fading prospects for fiscal consolidation, and France’s subdued growth outlook. Before they get into France, Barbara, Kamil, and Gaurav unpack the Eurozone’s latest growth figures, exploring how frontloading boosted first-half performance and what that means for the second half. There is some upside for investment which is now expected to grow modestly rather than contract, but it contrasts with weakening prospects for consumer spending. They also touch upon the diverging trends in confidence indicators, with progress in the euro zone’s outsize services sector reversing, while manufacturing confidence continues to recover.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Sticky Rice and Shaky Trade

brandingadmin@moodys.com (Gaurav Ganguly, Stefan Angrick, Denise Cheok) — Tue, 9 Sep 2025 21:44:28 +0000

With frontloading fading and trade on shaky ground, Gaurav, Denise, and Stefan sift through Asia-Pacific’s latest export figures for signs of a slowdown. China’s manufacturing PMI offers little comfort; soft across the board and especially grim on the jobs front. Over in Japan, a surge in rice prices is keeping inflation sticky, but wage growth isn’t playing ball. So why won’t the BoJ hike? The team also dives into China’s flirtation with deflation, a Thai economy on edge, and why Southeast Asia’s political unrest—from Jakarta to Bangkok—is about more than just the headlines. Plus: chips and investment pledges are shaking up trade talks, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meetings spark questions about whether China, India and Russia are really turning a new page or just putting on a show.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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The 40% club

brandingadmin@moodys.com (Andrew Hunter, Kamil Kovar, Gaurav Ganguly) — Tue, 2 Sep 2025 21:30:00 +0000

Gaurav, Kamil and Andrew return to discuss the latest news on the European economy. Kamil unpacks the latest trade and industrial production data and what they reveal about the impact of higher U.S. tariffs. Is the weakness just a reversal of earlier frontloading in pharmaceuticals, or are tariffs starting to bite? Meanwhile, Andrew discusses the key takeaways from the text of the EU-U.S. trade agreement and what it suggests about the likely path of tariff rates. The damage from tariffs is set to grow and uncertainty remains high, but the team share a sense that the risks of recession in Europe have receded and even manage to agree on the odds.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Peace in Ukraine: A Nobel Effort

Tue, 26 Aug 2025 21:00:00 +0000

Andrew, Barbara, and Denise join Gaurav for an in-depth exploration of the multifaceted Russia-Ukraine conflict, including potential peace terms and shifting scenarios. They assess the unexpected resilience of the Russian economy amid sanctions and growing internal challenges. The team also examines global energy markets, focusing on Russian oil flows to India and China, Europe’s reliance on Russian gas, and the broader feasibility of U.S. energy exports. They then turn to America’s defence strategy and the implications for Europe, before ending with thoughts on the potential for the economic reconstruction of both countries. Bringing this war to an end on terms that are fair for Ukraine and ensuring an enduring peace is much easier said than done, but surely worthy of the Nobel Peace Prize?

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Compute is the New Oil

Tue, 19 Aug 2025 21:00:00 +0000

Gaurav and Andrew welcome Suren Vardanyan and Charlie Houston to the podcast to discuss the Middle East. The region remains relatively insulated from U.S. tariffs and has avoided the worst effects of recent global shocks. The team breaks down the shifting role of hydrocarbon exports and revenues, debates evolving tail risks in geopolitics, and discusses how significant investments in AI and future technologies could fundamentally change the key drivers of these economies.

Click here to Read Gaurav Ganguly and Barbara Teixeira Araujo's Economic View paper

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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Boiling the (Chocolate) Frog

brandingadmin@moodys.com (Moody’s Analytics) — Tue, 12 Aug 2025 21:30:00 +0000

Gaurav is joined by Stefan, Denise, Andrew, and Kamil for a bumper episode on the global fallout from the latest wave U.S. tariffs and deals. The team debates whether this is the end of globalization as we know it or just a messy new chapter. From the EU’s apparent capitulation and Switzerland’s chocolate woes to Japan’s plan B and Southeast Asia’s tightrope walk, the team breaks down the implications for growth, investment, and global trade, and why financial markets still seem oddly calm. Are tariffs now a general-purpose economic weapon for the U.S.? And will European and Asian economies ever fight back, or are we all just frogs in slowly boiling water?

For deeper insights from the Moody’s Analytics research team, watch the latest on-demand webinar, Japan’s Economic Outlook: One Step Forward, Two Steps Back. Available now.

Here is the link: https://events.moodys.com/mc68475-wbn-2025-map27519-japan-economic-outlook-q3

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Struggling to Catch a Break

brandingadmin@moodys.com (Andrew Hunter, Gaurav Ganguly, David Muir) — Tue, 5 Aug 2025 21:30:00 +0000

David Muir joins Gaurav and Andrew for another U.K. special. The U.K. increasingly appears to have done relatively well in recent trade negotiations with the U.S., but the team struggle to find much else to be cheerful about, with the second half of 2025 still likely to bring weak growth, stubborn inflation and higher taxes. The team debate whether further rate cuts by the Bank of England will brighten the mood, but David warns that the pace of easing is likely to remain gradual.

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It’s Not Over Yet

brandingadmin@moodys.com (Denise Cheok, Gaurav Ganguly, Stefan Angrick) — Tue, 29 Jul 2025 21:17:56 +0000

Gaurav, Denise, and Stefan dissect the shock loss of the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition in Japan’s upper house elections. Cost-of-living woes and anti-foreign rhetoric dominated the campaign. So, is Japan catching the populism bug for good? Then it’s on to the U.S. trade deal blitz across Asia, from Tokyo to Manila to Hanoi. Equity markets are cheering, but are these deals anything more than smoke and mirrors? Finally, the team tackles the big question: is the trade chaos behind us, or just getting started?

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Fight or Flight

Tue, 22 Jul 2025 21:30:00 +0000

After another flurry of U.S. tariff announcements, Gaurav and team unpack what it all means for Europe. As the clock ticks toward the new August 1 deadline, the prospect of an EU-U.S. deal looks touch-and-go, while the team also debate whether the EU is more likely to try and fight higher U.S. tariffs with retaliatory measures of its own. Although recent data suggest European economies have held up surprisingly well amid ongoing trade tensions, the downside risks appear to be rising once again.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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What Goes Up Must Come Down

brandingadmin@moodys.com (Stefan Angrick, Katrina Ell, Denise Cheok) — Tue, 15 Jul 2025 21:34:01 +0000

Hot on the heels of President Trump’s latest tariff salvos, Stefan, Katrina and Denise break down the dizzying hikes and what they spell for Asia’s export-driven economies. No matter where tariffs eventually settle, the pain will ripple through the region. With most governments keeping their fiscal purse strings tight, central banks will be left holding the bag to keep economies afloat. And as the team half-jokes about signing up for social networks just to keep pace, one thing’s clear: this trade war is far from over, and the damage is adding up fast.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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German Lessons

Tue, 8 Jul 2025 21:00:00 +0000

Gaurav and the team are joined by Ben Acton-Bond for a special episode on Germany. Ben explains how the German economy is likely to fare in the face of higher U.S. tariffs, amid mixed signals from the recent data. The team debates whether Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s plans to ramp up spending on infrastructure and defense will lift Germany out of its years-long slump or if a recession is still a significant risk, while Gaurav takes the opportunity to show off his extensive German vocabulary.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Negotiating Around Tariffs: The Expanding Relationship Between Europe and Southeast Asia

Wed, 2 Jul 2025 00:29:19 +0000

Steve, Katrina and Gaurav welcome Karl Godderis, the CEO of EUROCHAM in Malaysia for an in-depth conversation about the expanding trade relationship between the EU and Southeast Asia. While tariffs are not an issue, both sides must face the EU’s regulatory environment. Katrina and Gaurav also say goodbye and thanks to Steve on the eve of his retirement.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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That Sinking Feeling

brandingadmin@moodys.com (Kamil Kovar, Gaurav Ganguly, Barbara Araujo) — Tue, 24 Jun 2025 21:45:47 +0000

Gaurav, Kamil, and Barbara return for a timely discussion on the rising risks of recession in Europe. They begin by unpacking four major threats currently weighing on the region’s outlook. Gaurav opens with an analysis of the Israel-Iran conflict and its potential economic spillovers, including developments in oil markets. Kamil follows with a look at the implications of an escalating trade war, while Barbara explores the growing challenge of global fragmentation. The trio also touches on the broader theme of global financial instability and its role in shaping downside risks.

In the final segment, the conversation turns to how they assess the probability of a European recession. While their views differ slightly, all agree that the outlook has grown increasingly fragile, with recession risks at even odds at best.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Leverage, Leverage, Leverage

Tue, 17 Jun 2025 21:34:49 +0000

Fresh off the heels of a U.S.-China trade truce reached in London, Ambassador Kurt Tong , Managing Partner at The Asia Group joins the Asia podcast crew. The team discusses the implications of the chaotic U.S. policy and how China and the broader region are readjusting to the dramatic shifts. Steve and Kurt sneak in some baseball references. Go Phillies!

Guest: Kurt Tong, Managing Partner at The Asia Group

Stockpiling, Sales and Storms

Tue, 10 Jun 2025 07:00:00 +0000

With new euro zone data releases, and an ECB decision to boot, there is plenty to talk about. Gaurav and team roll up their sleeves and do what they do best: analyze the numbers. Gaurav and Kamil kick off with a deep dive into our economic forecasts for Europe, unpacking the key assumptions and highlighting the downgrades made since Donald Trump’s election as U.S. President. They examine the role of tariffs, uncertainty, and other contributing factors, while also acknowledging the huge variations across European countries. The team then turns to the latest data and explores how significantly momentum has been boosted by stockpiling ahead of U.S. tariffs. Finally, the group reacts to the latest euro zone inflation data and the ECB’s recent rate decision. Has the central bank reached the end of its easing cycle—or is there more to come?

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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China’s Back Door Through Mexico—A Gateway or a Wall?

brandingadmin@moodys.com (Stefan Angrick, Steve Cochrane, Jesse Rogers) — Wed, 4 Jun 2025 00:30:16 +0000

Steve and Stefan discuss with their colleague Jesse Rogers the complex role of China in the Mexican economy and in Mexico’s exports to the U.S. Jesse shares his research showing China’s important role in Mexico’s domestic economy, particularly for autos, transportation and other infrastructure-related goods. But China plays less of a part in Mexico’s U.S.-bound export trade, unlike, say, in Vietnam, where Chinese and other foreign firms assemble goods for export to the U.S. market. Steve and Stefan are following closely the Taiwan economy, one of the strongest in Asia right now. And Jesse suggests some alternatives to Bad Bunny if one is into salsa and Latin music.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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It's No Big Deal!

Fri, 23 May 2025 21:00:00 +0000

Gaurav, Barbara and Kamil welcome David Muir as they discuss the latest U.K. economic data and the potential economic benefits of the three trade deals recently signed by the U.K. government. While the U.K.-U.S. deal looks quite narrow, the trade agreement with India is much broader in scope and might yield some long-term benefits. Crucially, the EU-U.K. deal isn’t a game changer—but it does represent a partial reset in economic relations and a positive step in the right direction. Unfortunately, none of the three deals will massively boost the U.K. economy, nor help avoid tax rises in the autumn.

In the second half of the episode, the team moves on to talk about the prospects for a U.S.-EU deal, and the conclusion is that it’s still difficult, even though it looks more plausible now than it did in early April. Does this mean that reciprocal tariffs take effect in July, or that the EU will have no choice but to retaliate against U.S. tariffs?

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Tariff - fying

Tue, 20 May 2025 21:00:00 +0000

Hot on the heels of the U.S.-China tariff truce, the team chat about all things trade. The episode kicks off with a trip down memory lane, as Steve tries to place the current chaos in the history of economic moments-in-time. Harry then gives the lay of the land following the weekend’s negotiations, and Katrina and Stefan explore signs of rerouting in the latest export data from China.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Two Deals and a Conflict

Wed, 14 May 2025 13:24:52 +0000

Gaurav and the team discuss the newly signed U.S.-U.K. trade deal and whether the de-escalation in global trade tensions will continue. The conversation then turns to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Andrew is skeptical that the recent U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal will bring a lasting ceasefire any closer, Gaurav and Barbara take stock of Europe’s energy security, while Kamil weighs in on the economic and fiscal impact of higher European defense spending.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Down Under Deep Dive

Tue, 6 May 2025 21:00:00 +0000

With the Australian election upon us, David Robertson, Chief Economist at Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, joins the team to discuss the outlook. Productivity is front of mind, having languished for the last few years amid only timid economic reforms; a clear-cut election victory could provide the political capital to change that. Elsewhere, the RBA’s priorities are shifting from taming inflation to supporting growth. With that in mind, David is confident the board will cut in May. How much more easing we get will depend on the damage President Trump’s tariffs do to the global and local economies.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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The Return of the Tax Man

brandingadmin@moodys.com (Gaurav Ganguly, David Muir, Andrew Hunter) — Tue, 29 Apr 2025 21:00:00 +0000

David Muir joins Gaurav and Andrew for a deep dive into the UK. The conversation takes a fiscal turn very quickly as the three dissect public finances and ponder the potential for tax rises in coming years. Trump tariffs add to the problem as the UK will not be able to rely on tailwinds from the global economy. The possibility of meeting Labour’s manifesto pledge of achieving the fastest rate of growth in the G7 feels very low. David and Andrew think that income and corporate tax rises will be hard to avoid in coming years, and Gaurav immediately brings up the Beatles.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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The Global Trade War Takes a Dark Turn

brandingadmin@moodys.com (Moody’s Analytics) — Fri, 25 Apr 2025 16:00:00 +0000

This bonus episode is a recent webinar led by our Chief Economist, Mark Zandi. It includes many colleagues on the Moody’s Analytics economics team from around the world. The webinar reviews the many U.S. and global ramifications of the emerging U.S. tariff policy.

This conversation features expert input from leading economists, including Mark Zandi, Cris deRitis, Steve Cochrane, Gaurav Ganguly, Marisa DiNatale, Dante DeAntonio, Mark Hopkins, Alfredo Coutino, and Justin Begley.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Many Shades of Gray: Asia faces much uncertainty under shifting U.S. trade policy

Wed, 23 Apr 2025 14:23:21 +0000

Steve and Stefan speak one-on-one about their expectations as trade negotiations ramp up between the U.S. and many of its Asia-Pacific trading partners. So far, however, the U.S. and China are not on speaking terms; Asian financial markets have stumbled, and currencies of Asia’s developing economies have depreciated against the dollar. There is much uncertainty about the near term, but Steve and Stefan express some optimism for the long-term resilience of the APAC economies.

Click here to read more on the paper written by Katrina and Stefan

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Tariffs, Deals and More EU Bazookas

Thu, 10 Apr 2025 17:16:49 +0000

Against a rapidly evolving policy backdrop, Gaurav and the team attempt to unpack the implications of the U.S. “Liberation Day” tariffs on the European economy. Kamil sets out why the hit to euro zone growth from the initially announced tariffs could be bad, but not necessarily catastrophic. But regardless of the exact path of U.S. tariffs, the team agrees that the lasting impact on confidence and investment suggests recession risks have increased. The team also discuss how the EU could negotiate a deal to remove tariffs or retaliate with duties of its own, and why the EU may be wary of taking its Anti Coercion Instrument ‘bazooka’ out of the closet.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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First Thoughts on Liberation Day Tariffs

brandingadmin@moodys.com (Steve Cochrane, Katrina Ell, Sarah Tan) — Fri, 4 Apr 2025 18:12:13 +0000

The Moody’s Analytics team welcomed their colleague and fellow economist Sarah Tan to share their thoughts on the so-called Liberation Day tariffs only hours after they were announced. Tariffs are broader and more aggressive than anticipated, with Asia’s export-dependent economies in the firing line. Steve led with his usual optimism, but Katrina and Sarah persuaded that Beijing’s stimulus would be insufficient to insulate China from exports coming under siege.

For related research on Tariffs and the Asia-Pacific economy, click the links below
Asia-Pacific Economies Brace for More Tariffs and More Trouble

Navigating Trump Turbulence

APAC Economic Outlook: Facing the Trade Winds

China Chartbook: Another Plan to Boost Consumption

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The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

Mon, 31 Mar 2025 21:04:57 +0000

As the European economy faces yet another turbulent period, Gaurav Ganguly hosts Andrew Hunter, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, and Kamil Kovar in a riveting discussion on the cyclical and structural issues confronting the continent and whether it can overcome these obstacles. The team delves into the recurring crises that Europe has faced, from the pandemic to the invasion of Ukraine, and how these events have dealt a blow to growth. Europe is still striving to recover, and just as signs of a rebound were emerging, policy uncertainty related to Trump's tariffs now threatens to derail the economy once again, raising recession risks. Barbara shares her insights on structural challenges, particularly focusing on Germany's economic woes and the impact of high energy costs. Andrew highlights the stark differences in growth rates across European countries, while Kamil explores labour market dynamics, the rise in savings rates, and their implications for consumer spending. The team also praises Europe’s resilience and ability to come together during a crisis to bail out the economy. Tune in to hear the team's perspectives on whether Europe can overcome the current challenges and what the future holds for the euro zone economy.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Deep Dive into Latin America – Tariffs, Oil and Milei

Tue, 25 Mar 2025 21:00:00 +0000

Moody’s Analytics economists Gaurav Ganguly and Steve Cochrane welcomed their colleagues Alfredo Coutino, Juan Pablo Fuentes and Jesse Rogers for a review of the Latin American economy. The conversation provides a general economic overview and a more in-depth analysis of the three largest economies: Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. They discussed the economic outlook, potential risks, the role of China in the region and the prospects and limitations of the oil sector.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Europe’s Big Bazooka

Tue, 18 Mar 2025 21:00:00 +0000

As the European Commission unveils its ReArm EU plan, Barbara Teixeira Araujo joins Andrew, Kamil, and Gaurav in trying to unpack the real implications of this big-bucks €800 billion package. The main question that remains unanswered is, “Is this really Europe’s ‘whatever it takes’ moment?” Barbara seems unconvinced, and the team raises some key questions about the feasibility of the plan, ranging from the lack of fiscal space to the rise in government yields, the risk this poses to market stability, and the potential crowding out of private investment. On a brighter note, Kamil welcomes the German government’s U-turn on fiscal policy, which he thinks represents a seismic shift for Europe. At the end, the team dwells on the probability of the euro dethroning the dollar as the global reserve currency (spoiler alert: not very high!).

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Beijing’s Blueprint and Lessons from Japan

brandingadmin@moodys.com (Moody’s Analytics) — Fri, 7 Mar 2025 22:05:39 +0000

As China's top officials gather for the annual Two Sessions in Beijing, we discuss the challenges facing China’s economy, its goals for the year and the parallels to Japan’s stagnation through the 1990s. We also take stock of the latest tariff announcements and give a crack at guessing where they’ll end this year.

To listen to the Demographics Are Not Destiny episode, click here

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Europe Under Attack

brandingadmin@moodys.com (Andrew Hunter, Gaurav Ganguly, Kamil Kovar) — Tue, 4 Mar 2025 22:00:00 +0000

Andrew Hunter and Kamil Kovar, both Senior EMEA Economists at Moody’s Analytics, join Gaurav Ganguly as The Global Economy Unwrapped moves its focus to Europe. The team fact-check two of the U.S.’s key complaints: the EU’s trade position with the U.S. and Europe’s low defense spending. They conclude that the complaints are largely unreasonable on both fronts, but this does not mean that the EU will get off lightly. Kamil explains that the EU could easily provide the funds to support the war effort in Ukraine, while Andrew and Gaurav debate whether another crisis would be good for the EU.

Related Research: Gaurav Ganguly’s The New Realpolitik.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Uncertain Times: A Global Perspective

Mon, 24 Feb 2025 13:30:00 +0000

We introduce our new title, Global Economy Unwrapped, where we will delve into more global topics starting with today’s episode. Hosts Steve Cochrane, Katrina Ell, and Gaurav Ganguly are joined by Moody’s Analytics Deputy Chief Economist Cris deRitis to discuss how President Trump is shaking up the status quo and bringing anxiety and uncertainty to the global economy. They explore how uncertainty is manifesting in the U.S., Europe, and Asia. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index gets a mention, Gaurav sneaks in an economist joke, and Cris can’t hold back his competitive nature.

To access Gaurav's piece Uncertain Times, click here

To learn more about the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, click here

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Production in a Tariff World

Tue, 11 Feb 2025 21:00:00 +0000

It’s been an eventful two weeks since our last episode. We kick things off with a recap of what’s happened and a deep dive into the latest industrial production trends across the region and around the world. The conversation quickly turns to U.S. tariffs on China. Are there more to come? What can we glean from China's response? And how will tariffs shake up the manufacturing landscape?

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Driving Change

Tue, 28 Jan 2025 22:00:00 +0000

Buckle up as we delve into the global car market. Joined by our auto market gurus Mike Brisson and Shannon Nicoll, the team explores the twists and turns of supply chain challenges, the accelerating rise of China as an automotive powerhouse, and the speed bumps of tariffs and trade barriers. The conversation is sure to rev your economic engines.

Auto Prices: Upward Momentum Continues Through Year’s End

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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New Year, New Beginnings?

Tue, 14 Jan 2025 22:00:00 +0000

The team runs through the Asia-Pacific outlook for 2025, highlighting some of the risks flying under the radar. Harry hopes that Beijing can ‘crowbar’ household wallets open as policymakers look to counter the impacts of looming tariffs. Meanwhile, Katrina is worried about the tight Aussie labor market, Steve is optimistic about the region’s prospects this year, and Stefan manages to sneak in an Austin Powers reference.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Asia’s Chipmakers’ Interconnection with Global Growth.

Tue, 24 Dec 2024 15:00:00 +0000

Steve, Stefan and Harry discuss the critical role of semiconductors in Asia’s economy, driving investment in Taiwan and South Korea with some spinoffs in Southeast Asia. Decoupling and reshoring policies in the U.S., Europe, Japan and China, however, will complicate supply chains and shift investment elsewhere. Talent retention will be key to Asia’s future role in the industry. With the team spread across various global locations, so too vary their holiday plans from Australia’s beaches to a KFC Christmas dinner in Japan.

Read more about the papers that were mentioned here: Why Chipmakers Are in No Rush to Leave Asia, China Chartbook: Policy Pivot, Developed Asia Outlook 2025: Diverging Fortunes

Asia's Economy Unwrapped team would like to wish you a happy holiday. We will return with new episodes January 14th!

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Compounding Risk in South Korea

Tue, 17 Dec 2024 22:00:00 +0000

The team welcomes their colleague Dave Chia to help us unwrap the economic implications of Korea's recent political drama. Although they seem limited at the moment, political change could be on the horizon. Thus, fiscal and foreign policy may shift with the political upheaval at home, compounding the already rising global uncertainties.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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The Rising Wave of Tariff Uncertainty

Tue, 3 Dec 2024 22:00:00 +0000

In this week's episode, we delve into President-elect Trump's latest tariff announcement. We explore the economic ramifications, the ripple effects on global trade relationships, and what it might tell us about future tariffs. Steve and Harry go back and forth (and not just on the squash court) discussing how China might respond. Meanwhile, Katrina doesn’t miss a (drum) beat, highlighting the uncertainty tariffs stir up for businesses.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Tariffs, Trade and Trump 2.0

Tue, 19 Nov 2024 22:00:00 +0000

Additional tariffs could hit Asia hard, particularly in China. The team unwraps the multiple effects on Asia of President-elect Trump’s policy proposals. Even if new tariffs on trade with other economies in Asia are modest, none will escape the growth, inflation and supply-chain impacts.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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In the Crosshairs: What the U.S. Election May Mean for Asia

Thu, 31 Oct 2024 20:06:36 +0000

The team welcomes Brendan La Cerda, a Moody’s Analytics colleague and U.S. fiscal policy expert, to unpack the implications of a Trump or Harris victory. The divergent outcomes for Asia are significant in this too-close-to-call race.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Hong Kong's Turbulent Journey

Tue, 22 Oct 2024 21:00:00 +0000

The team welcome their colleague Heron Lim to discuss all things Hong Kong, including the implications of China’s plethora of stimulus announcements. Also in the spotlight are China’s poor company profits, Hong Kong’s housing market and fed rate cuts. Steve finally goes first with “what’s your stat” …and it’s a doozy.

Today's Guest: Heron Lim, Moody's Analytics

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China’s Policy Pivot… or More of the Same?

Tue, 8 Oct 2024 21:00:00 +0000

In this episode, the team dives into the heart of China's latest economic stimulus policies. Harry is optimistic that this time is different, and households are finally getting direct support. Katrina, however, leads with her usual pessimism but tries to offset the negativity with a bad economist joke. Join us as we dissect whether China's new economic measures mark a genuine turning point or if caution should still prevail.

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Related research:

https://www.economy.com/economicview/analysis/408914/AsiaPacific-Weekly-Highlights-and-Preview-4-October-2024

https://www.economy.com/economicview/analysis/408913/China-Chartbook-PMIs-Profits-and-Promises-of-Support

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Southeast Asia's 360-degree view

Tue, 24 Sep 2024 21:00:09 +0000

Southeast Asia enjoyed resilience during the tightening cycle of monetary policy, but economy-specific differences remain critical. Moody’s economist and Southeast Asia expert Denise Cheok joins the team to delve into the details. Currency appreciation, surprise rate cuts, and the upcoming U.S. election keep the team on their toes. Steve is optimistic that inflation is “whipped.”

Today's Guest: Denise Cheok, Moody's Analytics

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Trade, Tariffs, and Transitions

brandingadmin@moodys.com (Steve Cochrane, Harry Murphy Cruise, Stefan Angrick) — Tue, 10 Sep 2024 21:00:00 +0000

Steve, Stefan and Harry jump into the everchanging world of global trade. The team explore recent trends in Asia, untangling the region’s interwoven supply chains and taking a deep dive into its diverse trade drivers. Looking to the future, the team give their best guess for how trade will evolve in an increasingly complex political environment.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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No Flick of the Switch

Tue, 27 Aug 2024 21:00:00 +0000

Steve, Stefan and Harry are joined by Moody’s Analytics New Zealand economist Shannon Nicoll to discuss all the happenings in the Kiwi and Aussie economies. Hot on the heels of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cutting interest rates, the team explores what it means for the Kiwi economy and if there are lessons for the Reserve Bank of Australia across the ditch. Plus, the team examines how Australia’s tax cuts and cost-of-living supports threaten to stretch inflation's tail, pushing the prospect of rate cuts into next year.

Today's Guest: Shannon Nicoll, Moody's Analytics

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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It’s a Marathon, not a Sprint.

Tue, 13 Aug 2024 21:00:00 +0000

In this Olympic-sized episode, Steve, Katrina, Stefan, and Harry, along with Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi, tackle an eventful week in global markets. Katrina’s hopes for the podcast to come in under world record time are dashed as Mark and Stefan lead a marathon discussion on the complexities of yen carry trades and recent weak U.S. jobs data. As they come around the final bend, the team put a spotlight on the high-stakes U.S. election, try to win gold for snarky comments and setup round two to discuss the latest hurdles in China’s economy.

Access Mark Zandi’s Assessing the Macroeconomic Consequences of Harris vs. Trump special study here: https://www.economy.com/getfile?q=279dfa9e-8dde-4f3f-9954-f24a747730a7&app=eccafile

Follow real-time coverage of global indicators, events, and trends on Economic View at https://www.economy.com/economicview/

Economic View provides real-time and in-depth macroeconomic analysis of the US and global economies. The service combines trusted analysis and award-winning forecasts from Moody's Analytics economists, with economic, demographic and financial data from multiple sources. Our comprehensive service enables users to quickly grasp the impact of economic events and trends.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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Say Cuts, Not Hikes — Getting Used to a New Normal

Tue, 30 Jul 2024 21:00:00 +0000

Katrina Ell struggles to get “cuts” into her vocabulary as she discusses with Moody’s Analytics colleagues Steve Cochrane and Stefan Angrick the outlook in APAC for interest rate cuts, which are likely by the end of this year. Timing will depend on the U.S. Fed’s rate path, the struggle to contain sticky inflation, and volatility of foreign exchange rates.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Reshaping Patterns of Trade

Tue, 16 Jul 2024 21:00:00 +0000

Global trade is on the mend, but it’s not all smooth sailing. The economic impacts of trade in Asia are being reshaped by demand for IT products and China’s massive manufacturing push. For China, rising tariffs put its trade outlook “under the pump.” In this context, Steve, Stefan and Harry unwrap the emerging trade patterns for tech-based industries, commodities, and the intermediate goods that shape new emerging supply chains.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Demographics Are Not Destiny

Wed, 10 Jul 2024 01:46:20 +0000

A declining population and labor force does not necessarily spell doom for economies in Asia. But some deft policy making will be needed to ensure productivity growth and adequate investment to maintain economic growth. Steve and the team discuss with Stefan the research he has done on this topic relating to Japan and China.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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China’s Policy Predicament

Wed, 26 Jun 2024 17:54:26 +0000

Is China putting all its eggs in one basket with its manufacturing led recovery? Households are struggling as property market moves south and youth unemployment remains painfully high. Steve is the pessimist of the group, while Harry and Katrina are more hopeful the third plenum in July will be “chockers” with reforms.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Are you an optimist or a pessimist?

Fri, 21 Jun 2024 14:42:16 +0000

The Asia-Pacific economy has accelerated so far this year from a weak fourth quarter. But inflation is improving inconsistently across the region. And in fact, two central banks have raised interest rates recently. In this environment, who is an optimist and who is a pessimist? Steve and Katrina take one side as Stefan and Harry disagree.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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