https://simplecast.com Welcome to Curve Your Enthusiasm by CIBC Capital Markets, the only podcast in the world focusing on the Canadian economy and fixed income market. 2020 en Mon, 6 Apr 2026 12:18:59 +0000 Mon, 6 Apr 2026 12:19:11 +0000 https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com https://image.simplecastcdn.com/images/45e0c518-a723-4c2d-8373-08f14888c097/d9b1fa83-c213-4aad-b4a3-2b9373b93763/3000x3000/podcast-graphic-curve-20your-20enthusiasm.jpg?aid=rss_feed https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com episodic Welcome to Curve Your Enthusiasm by CIBC Capital Markets, the only podcast in the world focusing on the Canadian economy and fixed income market. CIBC false https://feeds.simplecast.com/0sTySbzh CIBC mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca 01528992-ce91-438e-adb6-74f8a093a813 Mon, 6 Apr 2026 12:18:59 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Dan Kelly) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/how-healthy-are-canadian-smes-fGmtEBaC How healthy are Canadian SMEs? Ian Pollick, Dan Kelly 00:29:44 Ian is joined this week by Dan Kelly, President & CEO of the Canadian Federation of Independent Businesses (CFIB). The CFIB is the biggest non-profit organization in Canada, lobbying on behalf of their 100k+ members. The show begins with a discussion on how SMEs have weathered trade uncertainty and more recently, higher energy prices. Dan does a deep dive on labour market trends across the most active SME industries, noting that nearly 65% of all private sector labour demand comes from small businesses. The show progresses with other topics discussed like overall business sentiment, alternative measures of the job market, and how the federal government needs to refocus its productivity strategy. Ian is joined this week by Dan Kelly, President & CEO of the Canadian Federation of Independent Businesses (CFIB). The CFIB is the biggest non-profit organization in Canada, lobbying on behalf of their 100k+ members. The show begins with a discussion on how SMEs have weathered trade uncertainty and more recently, higher energy prices. Dan does a deep dive on labour market trends across the most active SME industries, noting that nearly 65% of all private sector labour demand comes from small businesses. The show progresses with other topics discussed like overall business sentiment, alternative measures of the job market, and how the federal government needs to refocus its productivity strategy. false full 87 b1bb802b-5731-430d-b1f0-9f4840147075 Tue, 20 Jan 2026 21:35:51 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Jean Boivin, Ali Jaffery, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/a-conversation-with-jean-boivin-SXXUSfMS A Conversation with Jean Boivin Jean Boivin, Ali Jaffery, Ian Pollick 00:44:07 In the first episode of Curve Your Enthusiasm in 2026, Ian is joined by Ali Jaffery from CIBC economics and Jean Boivin, Head of BlackRock Global Investment Institute. Jean begins the episode by outlining his core investment themes for 2026 across asset classes. It is hard to talk about 2026 without discussing AI, and Jean provides his view on why the near-term economic impact is inflationary, versus the longer-run impact which is disinflationary. The group discusses the risks inherent in the AI buildout, opines on market pricing across regions, and finishes the episode with a deep-dive on the Canadian economy and inflation path. In the first episode of Curve Your Enthusiasm in 2026, Ian is joined by Ali Jaffery from CIBC economics and Jean Boivin, Head of BlackRock Global Investment Institute. Jean begins the episode by outlining his core investment themes for 2026 across asset classes. It is hard to talk about 2026 without discussing AI, and Jean provides his view on why the near-term economic impact is inflationary, versus the longer-run impact which is disinflationary. The group discusses the risks inherent in the AI buildout, opines on market pricing across regions, and finishes the episode with a deep-dive on the Canadian economy and inflation path. false full 86 63ef2514-92c0-437b-b79b-340877884ffc Fri, 17 Oct 2025 11:33:22 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ali Jaffery, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/fiscal-thoughts-world-series-ambitions-Q_mFT6IV Fiscal thoughts & world series ambitions Ali Jaffery, Ian Pollick 00:28:37 Canada is weeks away from receiving the federal budget, which is creating a lot of interest from market participants. In this episode, Ian and Ali spend time discussing why this budget will look different than those in prior years. The introduction of the new framework, coupled with expectations of fiscal stimulus, make this a key event for markets. The show begins with Ali discussing the reasons for the changes to the framework, while Ian discusses why markets are so hyper-focused on how the budget will be financed. The pair spend some time talking about whether the Bank can ease rates after the budget has been released, focusing on the impact to the economy from the elevated fiscal spend. The show concludes with Ian discussing why markets are reluctant to price-in more from the Bank, while Ali opines on what a Blue Jays World Series win will do the economy! Canada is weeks away from receiving the federal budget, which is creating a lot of interest from market participants. In this episode, Ian and Ali spend time discussing why this budget will look different than those in prior years. The introduction of the new framework, coupled with expectations of fiscal stimulus, make this a key event for markets. The show begins with Ali discussing the reasons for the changes to the framework, while Ian discusses why markets are so hyper-focused on how the budget will be financed. The pair spend some time talking about whether the Bank can ease rates after the budget has been released, focusing on the impact to the economy from the elevated fiscal spend. The show concludes with Ian discussing why markets are reluctant to price-in more from the Bank, while Ali opines on what a Blue Jays World Series win will do the economy! false full 85 d3318a86-c020-4f6b-89df-20ea86c52778 Wed, 6 Aug 2025 12:11:50 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Brenden Donaher) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/a-very-stable-disequilibrium-fcEslAuZ A very stable disequilibrium Ian Pollick, Brenden Donaher 00:28:41 In this episode of Curve Your Enthusiasm, Ian is joined by Brendan Donaher, Executive Director STIRT trading. The show begins by discussing the recent U.S. jobs report, and the implications to the perception of economic data going forward and how that should affect the bond market. Brenden discusses how FOMC pricing has evolved, and his favorite trades. The duo begin to discuss what Fed pricing means for BoC pricing, rightly noting how cheap CAD front-end valuations are. Brenden provides his view on what pension hedging means for Canadian cross-currency basis swaps, while also highlighting key themes in global funding markets. The show ends with a discussion on the BoC’s balance sheet, and which trades Ian and Brenden think offer the most attractive opportunities at present. In this episode of Curve Your Enthusiasm, Ian is joined by Brendan Donaher, Executive Director STIRT trading. The show begins by discussing the recent U.S. jobs report, and the implications to the perception of economic data going forward and how that should affect the bond market. Brenden discusses how FOMC pricing has evolved, and his favorite trades. The duo begin to discuss what Fed pricing means for BoC pricing, rightly noting how cheap CAD front-end valuations are. Brenden provides his view on what pension hedging means for Canadian cross-currency basis swaps, while also highlighting key themes in global funding markets. The show ends with a discussion on the BoC’s balance sheet, and which trades Ian and Brenden think offer the most attractive opportunities at present. false full 84 ba32e715-c43f-4031-b3a4-2ad731de11b2 Fri, 11 Apr 2025 11:59:48 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Jeremy Saunders) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/thank-you-for-your-attention-to-this-matter-GGcxza7z Thank you for your attention to this matter! Ian Pollick, Jeremy Saunders 00:24:18 Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders this week, and the co-hosts begin the show discussing the manic week that was. There was not a lot of visibility to the moves in bond and equity markets over the prior few sessions, and Jeremy discusses his view on what was real and what was myth. Ian spends some time talking about the lack of evidence to support a few of the theories that markets are thinking about. The duo spend time talking about the level of interest rates going forward, disagreeing on the most likely direction of longer-term interest rates over the coming weeks. Ian provides his view on what the Bank of Canada is likely to do at their meeting next week, while Jeremy gives an update on his Fed views. The show completes with Ian and Jeremy discussing their favourite expressions of macro themes in the bond market. Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders this week, and the co-hosts begin the show discussing the manic week that was. There was not a lot of visibility to the moves in bond and equity markets over the prior few sessions, and Jeremy discusses his view on what was real and what was myth. Ian spends some time talking about the lack of evidence to support a few of the theories that markets are thinking about. The duo spend time talking about the level of interest rates going forward, disagreeing on the most likely direction of longer-term interest rates over the coming weeks. Ian provides his view on what the Bank of Canada is likely to do at their meeting next week, while Jeremy gives an update on his Fed views. The show completes with Ian and Jeremy discussing their favourite expressions of macro themes in the bond market. false full 83 11079c3e-098a-4f89-b103-c218530f83b9 Fri, 7 Feb 2025 15:50:18 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Aaron Carter, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/excess-hot-potatoes-s1FYXya2 Excess hot potatoes Aaron Carter, Ian Pollick 00:34:22 In the first episode of 2025, Ian is joined by Aaron Carter from the financing desk to discuss recent adjustments in the short-end. The show begins with the duo discussing the importance of the Bank of Canada’s move to change the way monetary policy is implemented, namely moving back into a corridor system. Aaron gives his ‘big picture’ view on why this is a real game-changer for CORRA, and his expectations around the evolution of the spread to the target rate. Ian takes time discussing the various administered rates in the Canadian short-end and how to think about the subset of arbitrage opportunities. Aaron finishes the episode by describing the incoming tri-party repo system and how that will interact with monetary policy going forward. In the first episode of 2025, Ian is joined by Aaron Carter from the financing desk to discuss recent adjustments in the short-end. The show begins with the duo discussing the importance of the Bank of Canada’s move to change the way monetary policy is implemented, namely moving back into a corridor system. Aaron gives his ‘big picture’ view on why this is a real game-changer for CORRA, and his expectations around the evolution of the spread to the target rate. Ian takes time discussing the various administered rates in the Canadian short-end and how to think about the subset of arbitrage opportunities. Aaron finishes the episode by describing the incoming tri-party repo system and how that will interact with monetary policy going forward. false full 82 74e1671a-ab2e-4801-aba0-1cbddd8c2ba7 Tue, 19 Nov 2024 14:17:31 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Stephen Poloz) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/a-conversation-with-stephen-poloz-0cmgsumv-iXa5j2A_ A conversation with Stephen Poloz Ian Pollick, Stephen Poloz 00:41:11 In a very special edition of Curve Your Enthusiasm, Stephen Poloz joins Ian as co-host for this week’s episode. The show begins by talking about the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, and what potential trade uncertainty means for the Canadian economy and monetary policy. Stephen spends time talking about the structural underperformance of the Canadian economy relative to other OECD countries, and provides some suggestions on how it could be fixed. The duo discuss R*, and why the actual neutral rate is not moving as fast as markets may think. In the balance of the episode, the duo discusses the impact of higher longer-term interest rates on monetary policy, the role of a flexible exchange rate and, how much the BoC can diverge from the Fed. The show finishes with a discussion on Stephen’s new mandate with Canadian pension plans. In a very special edition of Curve Your Enthusiasm, Stephen Poloz joins Ian as co-host for this week’s episode. The show begins by talking about the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, and what potential trade uncertainty means for the Canadian economy and monetary policy. Stephen spends time talking about the structural underperformance of the Canadian economy relative to other OECD countries, and provides some suggestions on how it could be fixed. The duo discuss R*, and why the actual neutral rate is not moving as fast as markets may think. In the balance of the episode, the duo discusses the impact of higher longer-term interest rates on monetary policy, the role of a flexible exchange rate and, how much the BoC can diverge from the Fed. The show finishes with a discussion on Stephen’s new mandate with Canadian pension plans. false full 81 8bd11ac4-772e-4761-886e-65e8c0c7ba0b Mon, 4 Nov 2024 14:01:40 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Jeremy Saunders, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/the-reflexivity-doom-loop-guFN6Hlx The reflexivity doom loop Jeremy Saunders, Ian Pollick 00:27:19 Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders this week, and the duo begin the show discussing the spate of U.S. jobs data last week. Ian discusses the internals of the JOLTS and NFP reports, noting the trend for U.S. labour demand is a negative one. Jeremy opines on his view on the election, and how the best opportunities are to fade recent flattening in the U.S. curve. They take some time to discuss the BoC, noting that recent data provides no confidence the Bank will slow down the cycle anytime soon. Ian outlines his view for a steeper swap-spread curve while Jeremy paints a picture of a flatter one. The pair spend some time talking about the specific tenors of the spread curve, and end the show outlining their favorite trades for the week ahead. Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders this week, and the duo begin the show discussing the spate of U.S. jobs data last week. Ian discusses the internals of the JOLTS and NFP reports, noting the trend for U.S. labour demand is a negative one. Jeremy opines on his view on the election, and how the best opportunities are to fade recent flattening in the U.S. curve. They take some time to discuss the BoC, noting that recent data provides no confidence the Bank will slow down the cycle anytime soon. Ian outlines his view for a steeper swap-spread curve while Jeremy paints a picture of a flatter one. The pair spend some time talking about the specific tenors of the spread curve, and end the show outlining their favorite trades for the week ahead. false full 80 4aad8252-33a6-404e-b437-e91b1d8be71e Mon, 7 Oct 2024 13:05:53 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Paul Beaudry, Ali Jaffery, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/this-is-a-really-good-episode-YJOFnYKE This is a really good episode Paul Beaudry, Ali Jaffery, Ian Pollick 00:32:01 Ian is joined by two guests this week, Paul Beaudry (Professor of Economics at UBC and Former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada) and Ali Jaffery from CIBC Economics. The episode begins with Paul giving his view on the 50.0bps cut from FOMC, and what the most recent strong NFP means for the November meeting (hint: 25.0bps not 50.0bps). In contrast, when thinking about the Bank of Canada, Paul outlines his views that the preconditions for getting administered rates to a much lower are setting have been met for Canada, and provides his views for the October meeting (hint: 50.0bps, not 25.0bps). Ian discusses the need for a smaller balance sheet, while Ali gives an update on what higher energy prices mean for the BoC reaction function. Ian is joined by two guests this week, Paul Beaudry (Professor of Economics at UBC and Former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada) and Ali Jaffery from CIBC Economics. The episode begins with Paul giving his view on the 50.0bps cut from FOMC, and what the most recent strong NFP means for the November meeting (hint: 25.0bps not 50.0bps). In contrast, when thinking about the Bank of Canada, Paul outlines his views that the preconditions for getting administered rates to a much lower are setting have been met for Canada, and provides his views for the October meeting (hint: 50.0bps, not 25.0bps). Ian discusses the need for a smaller balance sheet, while Ali gives an update on what higher energy prices mean for the BoC reaction function. false full 79 60ab186f-e8cb-419b-8e73-3492791614c1 Tue, 13 Aug 2024 12:29:52 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ali Jaffery, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/when-the-circus-comes-to-town-tqVCN_9y When the circus comes to town Ali Jaffery, Ian Pollick 00:27:06 Ian is joined this week by Ali Jaffery in CIBC Economics. The duo begin the episode by taking stock of the intense market volatility seen over the past week, and whether what triggered the moved has a real fundamental basis. Ali discusses the other pockets of strength in the U.S. economy, concluding that the U.S is slowing but not enough to warrant non-standard sized cuts, like 50.0bps. Ian discusses the triggering of the Sahm rule within the context of Okuns Law, and Ali spends time talking about the underlying dynamics of the U.S. labour market. Ian and Ali go back-and-forth on what a faster Fed means for the Bank of Canada, ultimately landing on the view that the Bank can slow down if the Fed is speeding up. Ian finishes the episode discussing his favorite trades, and the implication of what a faster Bank does to 5yr yields, and thus 5yr mortgage rates. Ian is joined this week by Ali Jaffery in CIBC Economics. The duo begin the episode by taking stock of the intense market volatility seen over the past week, and whether what triggered the moved has a real fundamental basis. Ali discusses the other pockets of strength in the U.S. economy, concluding that the U.S is slowing but not enough to warrant non-standard sized cuts, like 50.0bps. Ian discusses the triggering of the Sahm rule within the context of Okuns Law, and Ali spends time talking about the underlying dynamics of the U.S. labour market. Ian and Ali go back-and-forth on what a faster Fed means for the Bank of Canada, ultimately landing on the view that the Bank can slow down if the Fed is speeding up. Ian finishes the episode discussing his favorite trades, and the implication of what a faster Bank does to 5yr yields, and thus 5yr mortgage rates. false full 78 b8bdf013-56d1-4554-8620-8cec293d16e7 Tue, 30 Jul 2024 13:55:15 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Brenden Donaher) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/trading-the-macro-using-the-micro-1qTyJn4j Trading the Macro using the Micro Ian Pollick, Brenden Donaher 00:28:21 Ian is joined this week by CIBC Capital Markets’ Brenden Donaher, Executive Director from the Short Term Interest Rate Trading (STIRT) desk. The show begins with Ian highlighting the three key takeaways from the Bank of Canada rate decision last week. The Bank sounds more dovish and that raises the risk of an easing cycle which takes policy rates below neutral. Brenden provides his view on current expectations from the BoC rate path, comparing and contrasting the distribution to the United States, United Kingdom and Australia. The duo discuss what has worked and what hasn’t across the cross-currency curve, and why expectations of BA cessation never materialized in stronger short-end cross-currency pricing. Brenden gives his view on recent BoC actions to contain CORRA, and the pair give an overview of their expectations on the central bank meetings this week and how best to trade them. Ian is joined this week by CIBC Capital Markets’ Brenden Donaher, Executive Director from the Short Term Interest Rate Trading (STIRT) desk. The show begins with Ian highlighting the three key takeaways from the Bank of Canada rate decision last week. The Bank sounds more dovish and that raises the risk of an easing cycle which takes policy rates below neutral. Brenden provides his view on current expectations from the BoC rate path, comparing and contrasting the distribution to the United States, United Kingdom and Australia. The duo discuss what has worked and what hasn’t across the cross-currency curve, and why expectations of BA cessation never materialized in stronger short-end cross-currency pricing. Brenden gives his view on recent BoC actions to contain CORRA, and the pair give an overview of their expectations on the central bank meetings this week and how best to trade them. false full 77 847d4cce-0173-4f58-9c72-5bf1bef55d74 Fri, 19 Jul 2024 12:01:16 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Ali Jaffery) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-a-cut-Eb7QUyej What to expect, when you’re expecting a cut Ian Pollick, Ali Jaffery 00:29:18 Ian is joined this week by CIBC’s Senior Economist, Ali Jaffery, and the focal point of the episode is to preview the upcoming Bank of Canada interest rate decision. Ali begins the episode outlining his view on forecast changes, and the likelihood that the Bank shifts from outcome-based guidance to forward-guidance. Ian talks about current market pricing for the BoC relative to the Fed, highlighting why he thinks there is too little priced in mid-2025. The pair do a deep dive on the impact of a 2025 trade war, specifically what it means for global growth and central bank responses. The episode finishes with Ian discussing reasons behind recent CORRA dislocations, and the need for a change in how QT is being managed. Ian is joined this week by CIBC’s Senior Economist, Ali Jaffery, and the focal point of the episode is to preview the upcoming Bank of Canada interest rate decision. Ali begins the episode outlining his view on forecast changes, and the likelihood that the Bank shifts from outcome-based guidance to forward-guidance. Ian talks about current market pricing for the BoC relative to the Fed, highlighting why he thinks there is too little priced in mid-2025. The pair do a deep dive on the impact of a 2025 trade war, specifically what it means for global growth and central bank responses. The episode finishes with Ian discussing reasons behind recent CORRA dislocations, and the need for a change in how QT is being managed. false full 76 b98e7658-fa04-425e-9269-6c7725dd0856 Mon, 10 Jun 2024 14:54:18 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Nicholas Neary, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/enjoying-the-moment-cnhnv1C7 Enjoying the moment Nicholas Neary, Ian Pollick 00:24:00 Ian Pollick is joined by Nicholas Neary this week, Managing Director at DV Trading Group. The duo begin the episode by discussing the Bank of Canada interest rate cut, and what the near-term market implications are. Nicholas highlights his view on the threshold for policy divergence, which is considerably larger than most analyst estimates. The pair go on to discuss whether duration markets are safe, and what that means for the likely shape of the term structure. Ian talks about what is needed for the yield curve to sustainably steepen, while also discussing whether interest rate relief is really on the way for key borrowing rates in the economy. Nicholas provides his view on HQLA product, and why the provincial bond curve looks the way it does. The show completes with the pair talking about their favorite trades over the next two months. Ian Pollick is joined by Nicholas Neary this week, Managing Director at DV Trading Group. The duo begin the episode by discussing the Bank of Canada interest rate cut, and what the near-term market implications are. Nicholas highlights his view on the threshold for policy divergence, which is considerably larger than most analyst estimates. The pair go on to discuss whether duration markets are safe, and what that means for the likely shape of the term structure. Ian talks about what is needed for the yield curve to sustainably steepen, while also discussing whether interest rate relief is really on the way for key borrowing rates in the economy. Nicholas provides his view on HQLA product, and why the provincial bond curve looks the way it does. The show completes with the pair talking about their favorite trades over the next two months. false full 75 3363951d-5baf-4b45-92f3-cd058e2933c3 Mon, 13 May 2024 12:47:31 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Andrew Grantham, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/live-free-or-diverge-aVKX229s Live free or diverge Andrew Grantham, Ian Pollick 00:27:20 Divergence is the most oct-cited narrative when it comes to Canadian macro right now and, for good reason. In this episode, Ian is joined by Andrew Grantham, and the duo begin the episode by dissecting the latest Canadian jobs report. Despite the eye-popping headline number, the reality is that ‘under the hood’ there is ample evidence of a labour market that is slowing. Andrew spends time digging into this, and comparing/contrasting to the U.S. labour market. Ian gives his opinion on ‘where’ this macro divergence is priced into the bond curve, and provides his favourite trades on this theme. They do a situational analysis on the pace of BoC cuts, and conclude that whenever the Bank starts easing, regardless how far they get ahead of the Fed, the upcoming cycle will be irregular and shallower than most think. Divergence is the most oct-cited narrative when it comes to Canadian macro right now and, for good reason. In this episode, Ian is joined by Andrew Grantham, and the duo begin the episode by dissecting the latest Canadian jobs report. Despite the eye-popping headline number, the reality is that ‘under the hood’ there is ample evidence of a labour market that is slowing. Andrew spends time digging into this, and comparing/contrasting to the U.S. labour market. Ian gives his opinion on ‘where’ this macro divergence is priced into the bond curve, and provides his favourite trades on this theme. They do a situational analysis on the pace of BoC cuts, and conclude that whenever the Bank starts easing, regardless how far they get ahead of the Fed, the upcoming cycle will be irregular and shallower than most think. false full 74 5426dc5f-a96a-4436-ab66-ebe90a82c718 Fri, 22 Mar 2024 13:31:11 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ali Jaffery, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/shakedown-street-TnWrh6k_ Shakedown street Ali Jaffery, Ian Pollick 00:29:21 This past week demonstrated the largest amount of macro divergence over the past several years, with one major central bank hiking rates while another cut, at the same time the Fed straddles a dovish and hawkish message. This week, Ian is joined by Ali Jaffery in CIBC Economics, and the duo begin the episode by discussing these events. Ali makes the case that the macro story across developed markets is still linear, and monetary policy is moving to an easing cycle. But how deep that easing cycle will be is the ultimate question, and what it means for the bond market is what Ian tries to unravel. Ian discusses his view on the yield curve, suggesting that a lack of tradeoff between inflation and growth leads to higher longer-term yields for any given level of the overnight rate. Ian goes as far as to call the time of death of the flattener, noting we have firmly moved into a trend steepening cycle. The duo discuss the recent BoC speech on balance sheet normalization, and end the episode opining on the recent BoC Survey of Deliberations and what that means for the timing of the first cut. This past week demonstrated the largest amount of macro divergence over the past several years, with one major central bank hiking rates while another cut, at the same time the Fed straddles a dovish and hawkish message. This week, Ian is joined by Ali Jaffery in CIBC Economics, and the duo begin the episode by discussing these events. Ali makes the case that the macro story across developed markets is still linear, and monetary policy is moving to an easing cycle. But how deep that easing cycle will be is the ultimate question, and what it means for the bond market is what Ian tries to unravel. Ian discusses his view on the yield curve, suggesting that a lack of tradeoff between inflation and growth leads to higher longer-term yields for any given level of the overnight rate. Ian goes as far as to call the time of death of the flattener, noting we have firmly moved into a trend steepening cycle. The duo discuss the recent BoC speech on balance sheet normalization, and end the episode opining on the recent BoC Survey of Deliberations and what that means for the timing of the first cut. false full 73 27739ddc-048c-4193-a361-9759325d749e Fri, 16 Feb 2024 12:54:30 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Andrew Grantham, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/the-policy-forwards-are-too-skinny-RpXtFXmm The policy forwards are too skinny Andrew Grantham, Ian Pollick 00:30:33 Ian is joined by Andrew Grantham this week, and the show begins by discussing why the Canadian economy appears to be growing much faster in Q4 compared to BoC expectations. The impact of previous supply-side restrictions, like the tragic wildfires in 2023 and the port strikes, are starting to filter through the data. This means Canada is seeing low-hanging fruit on the supply side of the economy, which should not have a big impact on inflation. The duo also discuss recent labour market trends in North America, and why conditions look to be less strong under-the-hood. Ian gives an update on CORRA and the eventual QT cessation announcement, focusing on the recent announcement that the Bank will discuss balance sheet normalization at an upcoming speech. The pair tie everything together and discuss the policy path priced by the market, and why it feels too ‘light’ given all the risks in the economy. Ian is joined by Andrew Grantham this week, and the show begins by discussing why the Canadian economy appears to be growing much faster in Q4 compared to BoC expectations. The impact of previous supply-side restrictions, like the tragic wildfires in 2023 and the port strikes, are starting to filter through the data. This means Canada is seeing low-hanging fruit on the supply side of the economy, which should not have a big impact on inflation. The duo also discuss recent labour market trends in North America, and why conditions look to be less strong under-the-hood. Ian gives an update on CORRA and the eventual QT cessation announcement, focusing on the recent announcement that the Bank will discuss balance sheet normalization at an upcoming speech. The pair tie everything together and discuss the policy path priced by the market, and why it feels too ‘light’ given all the risks in the economy. false full 72 5fc33c56-38ba-491f-a149-5f654157e768 Tue, 6 Feb 2024 13:38:15 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Jeremy Saunders, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/is-the-boc-mispriced-enough-wZjMFR_h Is the BoC mispriced enough? Jeremy Saunders, Ian Pollick 00:26:41 Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders and the duo begin the show discussing recent central bank decisions. With four major central banks abandoning their tightening bias, the data has undermined the market reaction by showing a stronger underlying economy. Jeremy talks about the problem with short-end pricing in Canada versus the United States, while Ian shows why US and Canadian inflation is more comparable than meets the eye. Jeremy provides his view on the latest Treasury refunding announcement and the implications on QT, while Ian discusses why recent BoC measures to bring CORRA back to target won’t work. The duo spend some time opining on the path of swap spreads, and have a friendly disagreement on whether the belly is cheap or rich in Canada. Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders and the duo begin the show discussing recent central bank decisions. With four major central banks abandoning their tightening bias, the data has undermined the market reaction by showing a stronger underlying economy. Jeremy talks about the problem with short-end pricing in Canada versus the United States, while Ian shows why US and Canadian inflation is more comparable than meets the eye. Jeremy provides his view on the latest Treasury refunding announcement and the implications on QT, while Ian discusses why recent BoC measures to bring CORRA back to target won’t work. The duo spend some time opining on the path of swap spreads, and have a friendly disagreement on whether the belly is cheap or rich in Canada. false full 71 8d3aedb0-03cd-4476-91e2-22d09c9766f5 Fri, 27 Oct 2023 14:57:51 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Josh Kay) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/the-rates-vs-credit-intergalactic-royal-rumble-nyhQeqMO The Rates vs Credit Intergalactic Royal Rumble Ian Pollick, Josh Kay 00:22:26 Ian is joined this week by Josh Kay, and the show begins with a lookback at the Bank of Canada rate decision this week. Ian walks through the material differences between the statement and the updated forecasts, painting a more dovish outright picture. After talking through the most likely paths for the BoC, the duo discuss which asset class is likely to provide better total returns in 2024, rates versus credit. Josh discusses why credit is turning into a defensive asset class and why it is attractive at current levels, while Ian discusses the relative supply outlook to government bonds. The show finishes with both talking about their favorite trade ideas for the next few weeks. Ian is joined this week by Josh Kay, and the show begins with a lookback at the Bank of Canada rate decision this week. Ian walks through the material differences between the statement and the updated forecasts, painting a more dovish outright picture. After talking through the most likely paths for the BoC, the duo discuss which asset class is likely to provide better total returns in 2024, rates versus credit. Josh discusses why credit is turning into a defensive asset class and why it is attractive at current levels, while Ian discusses the relative supply outlook to government bonds. The show finishes with both talking about their favorite trade ideas for the next few weeks. false full 70 2834f5fa-2064-4e35-8303-e623238b5841 Fri, 20 Oct 2023 14:22:18 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Craig Bell, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/the-silence-of-the-longs-atARwKbG The Silence of the Longs Craig Bell, Ian Pollick 00:26:58 Ian is joined by Craig Bell this week, and the duo begin the episode discussing the recent cheapening of the cash market relative to swaps. Craig discusses the specific factors in the cash market impacting relative valuations, while Ian provides an update on the fair-value estimates from his swap spread modeling work. The elephant in the room is the Canadian long-end, and the richness of 10s30s and cross market. Ian and Craig spend time discussing how we got here and, what needs to happen for this richness to be remediated. Craig and Ian discuss the upcoming Bank of Canada rate decision, and get into a friendly disagreement about the proximate trigger of rate cuts in 2024. Ian is joined by Craig Bell this week, and the duo begin the episode discussing the recent cheapening of the cash market relative to swaps. Craig discusses the specific factors in the cash market impacting relative valuations, while Ian provides an update on the fair-value estimates from his swap spread modeling work. The elephant in the room is the Canadian long-end, and the richness of 10s30s and cross market. Ian and Craig spend time discussing how we got here and, what needs to happen for this richness to be remediated. Craig and Ian discuss the upcoming Bank of Canada rate decision, and get into a friendly disagreement about the proximate trigger of rate cuts in 2024. false full 69 8fe12613-18d9-4be2-8536-fd0d07600a83 Fri, 29 Sep 2023 16:15:22 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Mike Larson, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/make-duration-great-again-RQ6EtxB4 Make duration great again Mike Larson, Ian Pollick 00:21:28 Ian is joined this week by Mike Larson, and the duo kick off the episode by discussing the elephant in the room – the level of interest rates. Ian discusses the mechanics behind the ungluing of global long-end interest rates, while Mike gives his view on swap spreads. The pair talk about why the level of swap spreads should continue to decline, especially given how much 10yr Canadian rates have underperformed the United States recently. Ian gives his view on the absurdity of trading the ‘higher for longer’ and the ‘soft landing’ narrative at the same time. The show finishes with Ian and Mike outlining their favorite trades and which positions are the most crowded. Ian is joined this week by Mike Larson, and the duo kick off the episode by discussing the elephant in the room – the level of interest rates. Ian discusses the mechanics behind the ungluing of global long-end interest rates, while Mike gives his view on swap spreads. The pair talk about why the level of swap spreads should continue to decline, especially given how much 10yr Canadian rates have underperformed the United States recently. Ian gives his view on the absurdity of trading the ‘higher for longer’ and the ‘soft landing’ narrative at the same time. The show finishes with Ian and Mike outlining their favorite trades and which positions are the most crowded. false full 68 7ccb2487-354c-4bc5-948a-3c196714a48c Wed, 9 Aug 2023 14:18:22 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Avery Shenfeld) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/an-economist-and-strategist-walk-into-a-bar-R6i_0arv An Economist and Strategist walk into a bar... Ian Pollick, Avery Shenfeld 00:23:34 Ian is joined this week by Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist at CIBC. The duo begin the episode discussing the most recent North American jobs reports, with Avery highlighting why the Fed hasn’t yet done enough to cool the hot jobs market. Ian outlines the reasons not to get too wrapped-up in Canada’s recent wage gains, while Avery provides his view on the recent increase in the Unemployment Rate. The pair spend some time discussing the outlook for monetary policy, concluding that September is still very much in play for the Bank of Canada despite a string of weaker-than-expected activity data. The show finishes with Ian discussing the recent volatility in global long-bonds. Ian is joined this week by Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist at CIBC. The duo begin the episode discussing the most recent North American jobs reports, with Avery highlighting why the Fed hasn’t yet done enough to cool the hot jobs market. Ian outlines the reasons not to get too wrapped-up in Canada’s recent wage gains, while Avery provides his view on the recent increase in the Unemployment Rate. The pair spend some time discussing the outlook for monetary policy, concluding that September is still very much in play for the Bank of Canada despite a string of weaker-than-expected activity data. The show finishes with Ian discussing the recent volatility in global long-bonds. false full 67 24068f8f-d189-471b-8f23-ca300185690a Mon, 10 Jul 2023 14:31:21 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Jeremy Saunders) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/this-selloff-has-a-deeper-meaning-czOowdgC This selloff has a deeper meaning Ian Pollick, Jeremy Saunders 00:21:56 Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders this week, and the duo begin the episode discussing the recent bond market selloff. They reach an interesting conclusion early in the episode, highlighting that the ‘way’ in which the market is repricing has not been seen in all of 2023. Ian believes the market is pricing-in more inflation and lower growth in longer-dated yields, which Jeremy suggests is a function of where we are in the cycle. Jeremy discusses his view on the upcoming Bank of Canada meeting, while discussing the ‘big’ global macro themes and what they mean to the bond market and swap spreads. Ian finishes the episode by opining on recent data from the labour market, and highlights his favorite trades for the week ahead. Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders this week, and the duo begin the episode discussing the recent bond market selloff. They reach an interesting conclusion early in the episode, highlighting that the ‘way’ in which the market is repricing has not been seen in all of 2023. Ian believes the market is pricing-in more inflation and lower growth in longer-dated yields, which Jeremy suggests is a function of where we are in the cycle. Jeremy discusses his view on the upcoming Bank of Canada meeting, while discussing the ‘big’ global macro themes and what they mean to the bond market and swap spreads. Ian finishes the episode by opining on recent data from the labour market, and highlights his favorite trades for the week ahead. false full 66 b71e9103-7061-4470-a109-b72378bd2cb0 Thu, 15 Jun 2023 14:09:14 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Andrew Grantham, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/someone-is-making-a-mistake-DEbe2z8f Someone is making a mistake... Andrew Grantham, Ian Pollick 00:24:44 Ian is joined by Andrew Grantham, and the duo begin the episode discussing the FOMC rate decision. Andrew lays out the logic behind his forecast for a July and September hike, while Ian walks through the implications for the Bank of Canada. Ian introduces his new bond forecasts and talks about why current market pricing for the Bank and the Fed looks so strange compared to prior cycles. Andrew talks about his economic outlook for 2024 and highlights the upcoming weighting changes for CPI next week. Ian is joined by Andrew Grantham, and the duo begin the episode discussing the FOMC rate decision. Andrew lays out the logic behind his forecast for a July and September hike, while Ian walks through the implications for the Bank of Canada. Ian introduces his new bond forecasts and talks about why current market pricing for the Bank and the Fed looks so strange compared to prior cycles. Andrew talks about his economic outlook for 2024 and highlights the upcoming weighting changes for CPI next week. false full 65 45cce451-b0b1-41ee-8fbe-cca5d99649c7 Thu, 25 May 2023 12:56:38 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Jonathan Guilford) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/go-with-or-go-the-other-way-HZ74tLD9 ‘Go with’ or go the other way? Ian Pollick, Jonathan Guilford 00:23:23 The big news in Canada is the unexpected heat in the latest batch of CPI numbers. The reacceleration of Canadian prices may see the Bank of Canada respond with an interest rate hike later this summer. In this episode of Curve Your Enthusiasm, Ian is joined by Jonathan Guilford, and the duo begin the episode by taking stock of what happened over the past week. John opines on the ‘why’ and the ‘how’, while Ian discusses the risks surrounding ongoing repricing to continue. Ian discusses how a single hike from the BoC will not prevent a bond market rally later in the year, while John discusses why the curve is most likely to steepen after the summer. The duo end the episode discussing their favorite trades, and why Jonathan sees continued weakness in the 5yr sector of the curve regardless if the BoC hikes or not. The big news in Canada is the unexpected heat in the latest batch of CPI numbers. The reacceleration of Canadian prices may see the Bank of Canada respond with an interest rate hike later this summer. In this episode of Curve Your Enthusiasm, Ian is joined by Jonathan Guilford, and the duo begin the episode by taking stock of what happened over the past week. John opines on the ‘why’ and the ‘how’, while Ian discusses the risks surrounding ongoing repricing to continue. Ian discusses how a single hike from the BoC will not prevent a bond market rally later in the year, while John discusses why the curve is most likely to steepen after the summer. The duo end the episode discussing their favorite trades, and why Jonathan sees continued weakness in the 5yr sector of the curve regardless if the BoC hikes or not. false full 64 f76d1b09-4d13-43de-aade-2dcd1eee0fa0 Fri, 31 Mar 2023 12:56:53 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Gianluca Gargano) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/the-way-of-the-dodo-xAHBsiod The way of the dodo? Ian Pollick, Gianluca Gargano 00:22:27 The most recent Debt Management Strategy (DMS) raised the possibility that the Canada Mortgage Bond (CMB) program may be terminated, and folded into the GoC market. This is an extremely important development to the Canadian fixed income market, and to speak on the potential implications, Ian is joined this week by Gianluca Gargano, Managing Director and Head of Government Credit at CIBC Capital Markets. The show begins with Gianluca framing the conversation outlined in the DMS, and discussing what just happened and why. Ian speaks on other contours of the DMS, in particular what government issuance looks like and how this announcement increases the impact on the belly of the curve. Gianluca spends the balance of the show talking about competing assets to CMBs, and how they may trade given the shocking announcement. The most recent Debt Management Strategy (DMS) raised the possibility that the Canada Mortgage Bond (CMB) program may be terminated, and folded into the GoC market. This is an extremely important development to the Canadian fixed income market, and to speak on the potential implications, Ian is joined this week by Gianluca Gargano, Managing Director and Head of Government Credit at CIBC Capital Markets. The show begins with Gianluca framing the conversation outlined in the DMS, and discussing what just happened and why. Ian speaks on other contours of the DMS, in particular what government issuance looks like and how this announcement increases the impact on the belly of the curve. Gianluca spends the balance of the show talking about competing assets to CMBs, and how they may trade given the shocking announcement. false full 63 a44a0cd5-744f-44bb-b59e-ed592f1b5675 Wed, 15 Mar 2023 13:48:17 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Craig Bell) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/under-the-table-dreaming-wIwc2H8q Under the table & dreaming Ian Pollick, Craig Bell 00:26:23 The extreme volatility this week warrants some serious discussion, and Ian is joined by Craig Bell for this episode. The duo begin discussing the rapid series of events that culminated in one of the most volatile days for interest rates since the 1980s. Craig provides his view on what this all means for monetary policy, while Ian introduces two potential shoes left to drop that suggest the coast is not entirely clear yet. The co-hosts spend some time discussing how Canadian interest rate derivatives are handing the benchmark transition towards CORRA, and finish the episode discussing their favorite trades in the weeks ahead. The extreme volatility this week warrants some serious discussion, and Ian is joined by Craig Bell for this episode. The duo begin discussing the rapid series of events that culminated in one of the most volatile days for interest rates since the 1980s. Craig provides his view on what this all means for monetary policy, while Ian introduces two potential shoes left to drop that suggest the coast is not entirely clear yet. The co-hosts spend some time discussing how Canadian interest rate derivatives are handing the benchmark transition towards CORRA, and finish the episode discussing their favorite trades in the weeks ahead. false full 62 d757e87a-a765-432e-955c-1eafe9908a39 Mon, 6 Feb 2023 15:18:24 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Jeremy Saunders) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/two-types-of-easing-cycles-srVpZgIB Two types of easing cycles Ian Pollick, Jeremy Saunders 00:18:53 Ian and Jeremy begin the episode by discussing the FOMC meeting from last week. Jeremy spends some time dissecting the disinflationary narrative used by Chairman Powell, while Ian discusses the extremely strong data which came out after the meeting. The duo do a victory lap as many of the trading themes discussed in the prior episode ended up working quite well, and the co-hosts discuss the driving forces of markets in an otherwise quiet week ahead. Ian discusses why the front-end of Canada remains very vulnerable to a repricing higher, while in the balance of the show the pair discuss why easing is priced the way it is for 2024 and what that means for long rates. Ian and Jeremy begin the episode by discussing the FOMC meeting from last week. Jeremy spends some time dissecting the disinflationary narrative used by Chairman Powell, while Ian discusses the extremely strong data which came out after the meeting. The duo do a victory lap as many of the trading themes discussed in the prior episode ended up working quite well, and the co-hosts discuss the driving forces of markets in an otherwise quiet week ahead. Ian discusses why the front-end of Canada remains very vulnerable to a repricing higher, while in the balance of the show the pair discuss why easing is priced the way it is for 2024 and what that means for long rates. false full 61 568a4bb3-3084-4aad-b7a2-46625cdef0b0 Fri, 27 Jan 2023 12:41:43 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Jeremy Saunders, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/why-does-the-close-elevator-button-never-work-rcELLcmW Why does the ‘Close Elevator’ button never work? Jeremy Saunders, Ian Pollick 00:24:47 The first CYE episode of 2023 sees Ian joined by Jeremy Saunders, and the conversation starts with a discussion on global macro shifts. Stronger global growth outside the United States is an unexpected development, and the duo discuss what it means for global bond yields. Jeremy asks why the BoC spent so much optionality so early into the year, while Ian talks about the market implications of a conditional pause. The duo agree that spreads look toppy, though they disagree on whether or not market pricing for eases can realistically move from 2023 to 2024. The episode ends with both Ian and Jeremy speaking about their favorite near-term trades The first CYE episode of 2023 sees Ian joined by Jeremy Saunders, and the conversation starts with a discussion on global macro shifts. Stronger global growth outside the United States is an unexpected development, and the duo discuss what it means for global bond yields. Jeremy asks why the BoC spent so much optionality so early into the year, while Ian talks about the market implications of a conditional pause. The duo agree that spreads look toppy, though they disagree on whether or not market pricing for eases can realistically move from 2023 to 2024. The episode ends with both Ian and Jeremy speaking about their favorite near-term trades false full 60 147ce246-d1e1-4c6d-ba2f-e23ab33c8ed3 Mon, 28 Nov 2022 14:29:02 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Brenden Donaher) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/big-conversations-in-the-short-end-y9JcqWIt Big conversations in the short-end Ian Pollick, Brenden Donaher 00:27:00 Ian is joined this week by Brenden Donaher, and the duo begin the episode by discussing Bank of Canada pricing for the upcoming meeting. Ian walks through various scenarios around the meeting, and Brenden provides his view on what that means for 2023 pricing. Brenden introduces the idea that the USD still remains the most important factor driving Canadian short-end pricing, despite some idiosyncratic developments which will occur next year. Ian spends some time walking through his outlook for rates in 2023, while Brenden provides his view on the year-end turn as well as the reasons why CDOR-OIS looks too cheap compared to spot pricing. Ian is joined this week by Brenden Donaher, and the duo begin the episode by discussing Bank of Canada pricing for the upcoming meeting. Ian walks through various scenarios around the meeting, and Brenden provides his view on what that means for 2023 pricing. Brenden introduces the idea that the USD still remains the most important factor driving Canadian short-end pricing, despite some idiosyncratic developments which will occur next year. Ian spends some time walking through his outlook for rates in 2023, while Brenden provides his view on the year-end turn as well as the reasons why CDOR-OIS looks too cheap compared to spot pricing. false full 59 f97abada-e95e-49c3-8d32-4805ef8d45d5 Fri, 21 Oct 2022 15:08:15 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian pollick, Andrew Grantham) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/bank-of-canada-preview-5PblTNWh Bank of Canada preview Ian pollick, Andrew Grantham 00:26:19 Ian and Andrew discuss their expectations for the Bank of Canada interest rate decision next week. The duo walk through the reasons why the Bank will need to hike by another 75.0bps next week, and look at the most likely path of short-rates over the rest of the year. Ian talks about his favorite trades going into the release, noting that the forward expectations for BoC policy are too flat. Andrew spends some time detailing his expectation of forecast changes in the MPR, while the pair spend time talking about the impact that a weaker Canadian dollar has on both CPI and the stance of policy. Ian and Andrew discuss their expectations for the Bank of Canada interest rate decision next week. The duo walk through the reasons why the Bank will need to hike by another 75.0bps next week, and look at the most likely path of short-rates over the rest of the year. Ian talks about his favorite trades going into the release, noting that the forward expectations for BoC policy are too flat. Andrew spends some time detailing his expectation of forecast changes in the MPR, while the pair spend time talking about the impact that a weaker Canadian dollar has on both CPI and the stance of policy. false full 58 ee36e045-1cbf-4282-8081-dcac0feb6d60 Fri, 9 Sep 2022 18:56:47 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Jeremy Saunders, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/well-thats-a-big-heloc-payment-gp1xU8gg Well, that’s a big HELOC payment... Jeremy Saunders, Ian Pollick 00:23:40 Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders this week, and the duo begin the episode discussing the Bank of Canada rate decision this past week. Jeremy discusses his view on terminal rates becoming more ‘bounded’, while Ian introduces the concept of a higher lower bound. Both have profound implications for the shape of the yield curve compared to prior cycles. The hosts take some time to walk through what trades worked well for them recently, and discuss the outlook for 5yr swap spreads. The pair finish the show by talking about why the Canadian dollar might just be the biggest swing factor when it comes a higher Canadian terminal rate. Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders this week, and the duo begin the episode discussing the Bank of Canada rate decision this past week. Jeremy discusses his view on terminal rates becoming more ‘bounded’, while Ian introduces the concept of a higher lower bound. Both have profound implications for the shape of the yield curve compared to prior cycles. The hosts take some time to walk through what trades worked well for them recently, and discuss the outlook for 5yr swap spreads. The pair finish the show by talking about why the Canadian dollar might just be the biggest swing factor when it comes a higher Canadian terminal rate. false full 57 c9b02c97-55c4-4e22-adc3-d4427d456bdd Fri, 2 Sep 2022 13:46:10 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Andrew Grantham, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/highway-to-the-danger-zone-LIFre_7v Highway to the danger zone Andrew Grantham, Ian Pollick 00:27:39 Ian and Andrew discuss the latest Canadian GDP numbers, noting how the deceleration in growth is coming from all the ‘wrong’ places when it comes to slowing inflation. Ian talks about how slowing growth impacts the yield curve, noting the differences between slowing from an above potential to a below potential rate. Andrew shares his view on the Bank of Canada rate decision next week, and provides the reasons why he thinks this is the final hike of the current cycle. The duo discuss what ‘higher for longer’ means, and the implications to how low policy rates can be cut in the next recession and why longer-term yields will be higher than most think. Ian and Andrew discuss the latest Canadian GDP numbers, noting how the deceleration in growth is coming from all the ‘wrong’ places when it comes to slowing inflation. Ian talks about how slowing growth impacts the yield curve, noting the differences between slowing from an above potential to a below potential rate. Andrew shares his view on the Bank of Canada rate decision next week, and provides the reasons why he thinks this is the final hike of the current cycle. The duo discuss what ‘higher for longer’ means, and the implications to how low policy rates can be cut in the next recession and why longer-term yields will be higher than most think. false full 56 f0d017d4-9eb3-47f4-bccb-fbe23a02f8d3 Mon, 11 Jul 2022 13:55:55 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Josh Kay, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/outflows-or-opportunity-QcNSs9Z4 Outflows or opportunity? Josh Kay, Ian Pollick 00:22:26 Ian is joined this week by Josh Kay, and the duo kick-off the episode discussing the Bank of Canada. With a 75 bps hike all but set in stone, the question is what should their next move be and should this matter given what is currently priced? Ian discusses his view on the ‘noncession/recession’ which will be challenging to trade, while Josh provides his view on what the move in rates means for credit markets. Josh discusses why credit outflows create opportunity for structural credit investors, and provides his view on sector trends in CAD IG. Ian finishes the show by given his outlook for rates and the curve. Ian is joined this week by Josh Kay, and the duo kick-off the episode discussing the Bank of Canada. With a 75 bps hike all but set in stone, the question is what should their next move be and should this matter given what is currently priced? Ian discusses his view on the ‘noncession/recession’ which will be challenging to trade, while Josh provides his view on what the move in rates means for credit markets. Josh discusses why credit outflows create opportunity for structural credit investors, and provides his view on sector trends in CAD IG. Ian finishes the show by given his outlook for rates and the curve. false full 55 6aa6a02f-d996-4fa0-a7d6-1bcc63abbe50 Fri, 24 Jun 2022 14:29:42 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Jeremy Saunders, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/steal-your-face-1SQcgyuS Steal your face Jeremy Saunders, Ian Pollick 00:27:46 Ian is joined this week by Jeremy Saunders, and the duo start the episode by looking at the shape of the Canada and U.S. yield curves relative to what is priced for monetary policy in each region. Ian discusses why he views the recent bond market rally to be technical, while Jeremy provides his take on why it has been more fundamentally based. Over the balance of the episode the team discuss the outlook for swap spreads, the inflection point for a Fed pivot, and why CDOR cessation should a much less uncertain transition compared to the U.S. experience with LIBOR. Ian is joined this week by Jeremy Saunders, and the duo start the episode by looking at the shape of the Canada and U.S. yield curves relative to what is priced for monetary policy in each region. Ian discusses why he views the recent bond market rally to be technical, while Jeremy provides his take on why it has been more fundamentally based. Over the balance of the episode the team discuss the outlook for swap spreads, the inflection point for a Fed pivot, and why CDOR cessation should a much less uncertain transition compared to the U.S. experience with LIBOR. false full 54 fb18a151-b1ad-40d5-bdfd-62494ab19441 Fri, 17 Jun 2022 16:48:31 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Paul Jenkin) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/break-on-through-to-the-other-side-iHkJRo7j Break on through to the other side Ian Pollick, Paul Jenkin 00:24:02 Ian is joined this week by Paul Jenkin, and the duo kick-off the episode discussing their take of the FOMC meeting. The largest hike from the Fed since the mid-90s didn’t come entirely as expected, with a hawkish set of forecasts pitted against a dovish press conference. Paul discusses the reasons he expects policy rates to set higher than current market pricing, and what that means for bank portfolio behavior. The pair spend some time discussing asset-swap valuations, and what lower housing may mean for funding markets. Paul finishes the episode by providing his view on provincial spread valuations. Ian is joined this week by Paul Jenkin, and the duo kick-off the episode discussing their take of the FOMC meeting. The largest hike from the Fed since the mid-90s didn’t come entirely as expected, with a hawkish set of forecasts pitted against a dovish press conference. Paul discusses the reasons he expects policy rates to set higher than current market pricing, and what that means for bank portfolio behavior. The pair spend some time discussing asset-swap valuations, and what lower housing may mean for funding markets. Paul finishes the episode by providing his view on provincial spread valuations. false full 53 d1b92bd5-fa2e-4aed-aab6-b9c38001e08e Mon, 13 Jun 2022 17:22:04 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Andrew Grantham) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/the-strangest-recession-you-ever-did-see-Rx9KJ9BY The strangest recession you ever did see Ian Pollick, Andrew Grantham 00:33:04 Ian and Andrew start the episode by discussing Friday’s data deluge, particularly the red-hot inflation reading in the United States. Andrew talks about the implications for Canada based on the drivers of U.S. CPI strength, noting that both the near-term peak and the end-of-year resting spot have now increased. The duo spend a lot of time talking about the options for the Bank of Canada, and introduce CIBC’s new forecasts for the target rate, which is higher as a result of the data. Ian talks about why CAD rates have been underperforming of late, and why he likes being long cross-market now. Andrew finishes the episode by looking at the odd type of recession he believes could transpire if rates are risen too high. Ian and Andrew start the episode by discussing Friday’s data deluge, particularly the red-hot inflation reading in the United States. Andrew talks about the implications for Canada based on the drivers of U.S. CPI strength, noting that both the near-term peak and the end-of-year resting spot have now increased. The duo spend a lot of time talking about the options for the Bank of Canada, and introduce CIBC’s new forecasts for the target rate, which is higher as a result of the data. Ian talks about why CAD rates have been underperforming of late, and why he likes being long cross-market now. Andrew finishes the episode by looking at the odd type of recession he believes could transpire if rates are risen too high. false full 52 23cf04df-c890-4fee-8f9c-c24f11487e53 Fri, 22 Apr 2022 14:31:55 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Andrew Grantham) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/the-inflation-episode-kS8LQlEi The inflation episode Ian Pollick, Andrew Grantham 00:25:52 The scorching hot CPI report has created yet another shock for the market, and the probability of an even more ‘forceful’ response from the Bank of Canada seems warranted. In this episode, Ian and Andrew do a deep dive on the latest report and talk about the many methodology adjustments StatsCan is making to the basket. The co-hosts take some time to go over the new forecasts presented in the MPR from last week, and unveil CIBC’s new policy forecast. Ian discusses why back-end rates underperformed recently, as well as some of the risks to the Bank’s QT implementation. The scorching hot CPI report has created yet another shock for the market, and the probability of an even more ‘forceful’ response from the Bank of Canada seems warranted. In this episode, Ian and Andrew do a deep dive on the latest report and talk about the many methodology adjustments StatsCan is making to the basket. The co-hosts take some time to go over the new forecasts presented in the MPR from last week, and unveil CIBC’s new policy forecast. Ian discusses why back-end rates underperformed recently, as well as some of the risks to the Bank’s QT implementation. false full 51 e3671247-f3b5-4bf4-b2d7-1cc011e68547 Fri, 1 Apr 2022 17:34:50 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Andrew Grantham) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/a-hike-too-far-RJcXEvek A hike too far? Ian Pollick, Andrew Grantham 00:23:51 In the 50th episode of Curve Your Enthusiasm, Ian and Andrew begin the show discussing the strength in the recent Canadian GDP numbers. Ian talks about data sensitivity and the bond market, while Andrew highlights why he thinks the path to terminal matters. The co-hosts both outline why they think the Fed is more likely to take short-run terminal above long-run neutral, and Andrew discusses the work he is doing on Canadian NAIRU. The proximity to the federal budget sparks a conversation with the duo, and Ian outlines his expectations for bond issuance in the year-ahead. In the 50th episode of Curve Your Enthusiasm, Ian and Andrew begin the show discussing the strength in the recent Canadian GDP numbers. Ian talks about data sensitivity and the bond market, while Andrew highlights why he thinks the path to terminal matters. The co-hosts both outline why they think the Fed is more likely to take short-run terminal above long-run neutral, and Andrew discusses the work he is doing on Canadian NAIRU. The proximity to the federal budget sparks a conversation with the duo, and Ian outlines his expectations for bond issuance in the year-ahead. false full 50 a8022b8b-381f-405a-891d-65add043c405 Fri, 4 Mar 2022 15:40:42 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Andrew Grantham) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/well-that-was-anticlimactic-0cOzeEs_ Well that was anticlimactic Ian Pollick, Andrew Grantham 00:26:35 The Bank of Canada (BoC) hiked interest rates for the first time since 2018, and the episode begins with a dissection of the statement. This week, Ian is joined by Andrew Grantham, Senior Economist in CIBC Economics. Once the pair establish what was surprising from the BoC, they spend some time discussing why C$100.0 oil in 2022 has a different impact than C$100.0 oil in 2014. Andrew discusses his upside view on inflation, while also discussing the latest trends in provincial economics. Ian and Andrew spend some time talking about what impacts terminal rates, and ultimately agree to disagree. The Bank of Canada (BoC) hiked interest rates for the first time since 2018, and the episode begins with a dissection of the statement. This week, Ian is joined by Andrew Grantham, Senior Economist in CIBC Economics. Once the pair establish what was surprising from the BoC, they spend some time discussing why C$100.0 oil in 2022 has a different impact than C$100.0 oil in 2014. Andrew discusses his upside view on inflation, while also discussing the latest trends in provincial economics. Ian and Andrew spend some time talking about what impacts terminal rates, and ultimately agree to disagree. false full 49 0dfea3f1-723a-4719-9275-d69924048b87 Tue, 22 Feb 2022 16:34:04 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Josh Kay) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/the-multiverse-of-credit-rates-92qx9HzJ The multiverse of credit & rates Ian Pollick, Josh Kay 00:23:53 Ian is joined this week by Josh Kay, and the duo begin the episode talking about the benefits, and dangers, of a non-standard sized hike. Ian discusses the required trade off between a higher terminal rate and a faster pace of hikes and why the curve is currently ‘trapped’. Josh spends some time discussing how credit markets are reacting to higher interest rates, while also taking a look back at recent Canadian credit performance. The pair finish the episode talking about portfolio construction and whether or not credit spreads have already reached the lows for the year. Ian is joined this week by Josh Kay, and the duo begin the episode talking about the benefits, and dangers, of a non-standard sized hike. Ian discusses the required trade off between a higher terminal rate and a faster pace of hikes and why the curve is currently ‘trapped’. Josh spends some time discussing how credit markets are reacting to higher interest rates, while also taking a look back at recent Canadian credit performance. The pair finish the episode talking about portfolio construction and whether or not credit spreads have already reached the lows for the year. false full 48 39e62c82-e7db-4e5d-9af5-98a603e3827e Tue, 8 Feb 2022 18:08:48 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Nick Exarhos) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/peak-macro-g88oUqZt Peak macro? Ian Pollick, Nick Exarhos 00:18:32 On this episode of CYE, Ian and Nick begin this episode discussing whether or not markets are priced for peak macro conditions. Ian talks about the importance of the BoE and ECB meetings on the global stock of negative yielding debt, and how that dynamic may interrupt traditional flattening trends into a hiking cycle. Nick discuss productivity trends within the context of where the market is pricing-in terminal policy rates in North America, while Ian gives a highlight on what to expect from Governor Macklem’s speech this week. The pair end the episode by looking at the long-end of the curve. On this episode of CYE, Ian and Nick begin this episode discussing whether or not markets are priced for peak macro conditions. Ian talks about the importance of the BoE and ECB meetings on the global stock of negative yielding debt, and how that dynamic may interrupt traditional flattening trends into a hiking cycle. Nick discuss productivity trends within the context of where the market is pricing-in terminal policy rates in North America, while Ian gives a highlight on what to expect from Governor Macklem’s speech this week. The pair end the episode by looking at the long-end of the curve. false full 47 78b2b15a-72e5-45ec-bf70-82aa3b324c4a Fri, 28 Jan 2022 13:28:07 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Jeremy Saunders, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/this-is-the-way-EGhdi2hh This is the way Jeremy Saunders, Ian Pollick 00:21:11 Ian is joined this week by Jeremy Saunders from CIBCs XVA trading group. The duo kick-off the episode by discussing the Bank of Canada and Fed meeting this week, looking at the primary reasons why the Bank decided to delay the first hike until March. Jeremy discusses the importance of preserving forward guidance as a policy tool, and contrasts the messaging between the two post-meeting press conferences. Ian provides his view on the BoC balance sheet, and unveils the firms new central bank and interest rate forecasts. Jeremy throws cold water on the short 2yr swap spread narrative, and provides his favorite trades for the next few weeks. The pair finish the episode by looking at the difference between terminal and neutral rates in North America, and discuss the implications for longer-term forward rates. Ian is joined this week by Jeremy Saunders from CIBCs XVA trading group. The duo kick-off the episode by discussing the Bank of Canada and Fed meeting this week, looking at the primary reasons why the Bank decided to delay the first hike until March. Jeremy discusses the importance of preserving forward guidance as a policy tool, and contrasts the messaging between the two post-meeting press conferences. Ian provides his view on the BoC balance sheet, and unveils the firms new central bank and interest rate forecasts. Jeremy throws cold water on the short 2yr swap spread narrative, and provides his favorite trades for the next few weeks. The pair finish the episode by looking at the difference between terminal and neutral rates in North America, and discuss the implications for longer-term forward rates. false full 46 550b94a0-3b27-4c31-be3f-c5ef9aea6c42 Fri, 21 Jan 2022 15:22:47 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Craig Bell) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/the-path-of-least-regret-LEh15oJH The path of least regret Ian Pollick, Craig Bell 00:22:47 Ian is joined this week by Craig Bell, and the duo cover a lot of ground heading into the Bank of Canada interest rate decision next week. The episode begins with an in-depth discussion on why the Bank can credibly delay rate hikes in January. Craig goes on to discusses the path ahead for swap spreads, while Ian spends some time walking through what balance-sheet rolloff will look like in Canada, and why it isn’t as big a deal for the bond market as in the United States. The co-hosts spend some time discussing the misalignment in the front-end of the CAD curve, and Craig provides his favorite trading expressions over the next week. Ian is joined this week by Craig Bell, and the duo cover a lot of ground heading into the Bank of Canada interest rate decision next week. The episode begins with an in-depth discussion on why the Bank can credibly delay rate hikes in January. Craig goes on to discusses the path ahead for swap spreads, while Ian spends some time walking through what balance-sheet rolloff will look like in Canada, and why it isn’t as big a deal for the bond market as in the United States. The co-hosts spend some time discussing the misalignment in the front-end of the CAD curve, and Craig provides his favorite trading expressions over the next week. false full 45 ecef1d0b-f445-49bb-ae65-93b065e9faa3 Mon, 17 Jan 2022 15:49:40 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Nick Exarhos) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/new-beginnings-nVP_RNLZ New beginnings Ian Pollick, Nick Exarhos 00:20:58 Ian is on the hunt for a new co-host, and is joined this week by Nick Exarhos to discuss a host of themes that matter right now for the bond market. The duo begin their discussion on what quantitative tightening (QT) would look like from the Bank of Canada, and the key differences we should expect relative to the Fed. Nick discusses the impact of fiscal drag in the United States on the growth outlook, and questions whether excess savings is enough offset the slowdown. Ian spends some time talking about the upcoming BoC MPR and why he doesn’t believe the Bank will hike rates this month. The pair discuss the evolution of the curve and have a friendly disagreement on the level of provincial spreads. Ian is on the hunt for a new co-host, and is joined this week by Nick Exarhos to discuss a host of themes that matter right now for the bond market. The duo begin their discussion on what quantitative tightening (QT) would look like from the Bank of Canada, and the key differences we should expect relative to the Fed. Nick discusses the impact of fiscal drag in the United States on the growth outlook, and questions whether excess savings is enough offset the slowdown. Ian spends some time talking about the upcoming BoC MPR and why he doesn’t believe the Bank will hike rates this month. The pair discuss the evolution of the curve and have a friendly disagreement on the level of provincial spreads. false full 44 685eb4c5-ce72-4523-8881-8c7549e3835a Tue, 7 Dec 2021 19:32:15 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/hike-o-clock-K212ywLk Hike-o-clock? Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick 00:21:29 In the final episode of 2021, Ian & Royce discuss the widened uncertainty related to new COVID variants. Royce discusses his view on the recent Canadian data, both GDP & jobs, while Ian opines on the potential for the Bank of Canada to deliver earlier-than-expected rate hikes. The two hosts go back-and-forth about the most optimal policy sequencing, specifically whether or not central bankers should shrink balance sheets before delivering rate hikes. The potential for yield-curve inversion is growing, and that may ultimately harm the recovery. Royce finishes the show by discussing how falling energy prices will matter going forward for U.S. inflation. In the final episode of 2021, Ian & Royce discuss the widened uncertainty related to new COVID variants. Royce discusses his view on the recent Canadian data, both GDP & jobs, while Ian opines on the potential for the Bank of Canada to deliver earlier-than-expected rate hikes. The two hosts go back-and-forth about the most optimal policy sequencing, specifically whether or not central bankers should shrink balance sheets before delivering rate hikes. The potential for yield-curve inversion is growing, and that may ultimately harm the recovery. Royce finishes the show by discussing how falling energy prices will matter going forward for U.S. inflation. false full 43 f74d525d-edfc-46d0-8d80-dad9cc764a57 Thu, 14 Oct 2021 16:53:02 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/dovish-innovations-seFXShrf Dovish innovations Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick 00:24:25 Ian & Royce begin the episode this week discussing the most recent Labour Force Survey. They conclude that while the economy has reached a milestone in recovering all of the jobs lost during the pandemic, that’s not a sign of “mission accomplished”. Ian then takes a deep breath and speaks about the recent move in Canadian short rates, and why the profile for the Bank of Canada has been so aggressively repriced in the past week. Royce agrees, and walks us through his view on the upcoming Bank of Canada announcement, while Ian throws in a surprise by noting that he doesn’t believe the Bank will enter the reinvestment phase this month. The duo finish off the episode by touching on inflation and what the positive terms-of-trade shock does and doesn’t mean for Canada. Ian & Royce begin the episode this week discussing the most recent Labour Force Survey. They conclude that while the economy has reached a milestone in recovering all of the jobs lost during the pandemic, that’s not a sign of “mission accomplished”. Ian then takes a deep breath and speaks about the recent move in Canadian short rates, and why the profile for the Bank of Canada has been so aggressively repriced in the past week. Royce agrees, and walks us through his view on the upcoming Bank of Canada announcement, while Ian throws in a surprise by noting that he doesn’t believe the Bank will enter the reinvestment phase this month. The duo finish off the episode by touching on inflation and what the positive terms-of-trade shock does and doesn’t mean for Canada. false full 42 9dcdfa26-a1a2-418a-89d7-3f7522a137f6 Fri, 17 Sep 2021 14:56:35 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/a-10yr-bond-walks-into-a-bar-6NDXvS0o A 10yr bond walks into a bar… Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick 00:25:03 The recent increase in COVID-19 cases is showing up in the data in different ways, in different regions. Royce describes why inflation surprises shouldn’t be taken at face value, while growth surprises aren’t as concerning as the bond market is suggesting. Ian walks through his expectation for the FOMC meeting next week, and provides a framework for thinking about how the Fed’s taper will impact bond yields. Both Ian and Royce do a deeper dive on the recent communications from the Bank of Canada, and discuss why quantitative-tightening (QT) is an elegant solution for the BoC in the coming hiking cycle. The recent increase in COVID-19 cases is showing up in the data in different ways, in different regions. Royce describes why inflation surprises shouldn’t be taken at face value, while growth surprises aren’t as concerning as the bond market is suggesting. Ian walks through his expectation for the FOMC meeting next week, and provides a framework for thinking about how the Fed’s taper will impact bond yields. Both Ian and Royce do a deeper dive on the recent communications from the Bank of Canada, and discuss why quantitative-tightening (QT) is an elegant solution for the BoC in the coming hiking cycle. false full 41 461dbd70-a33d-4829-a182-7a3fd0030b76 Fri, 30 Jul 2021 14:35:27 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Royce Mendes) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/this-is-40-XzJS6Edy This is 40 Ian Pollick, Royce Mendes 00:23:20 Royce and Ian take stock of the recent FOMC meeting, and discuss what new information they heard from the Fed.  Royce explains the key drivers of inflation differentials between Canada and the United States, while Ian vents his frustration over the lack of response in the bond market.  The new repo facilities are discussed within the context of how the sequencing of QE impacts the timing of U.S. rate hikes, and both Ian and Royce opine on what that means for the Bank of Canada. Royce and Ian take stock of the recent FOMC meeting, and discuss what new information they heard from the Fed.  Royce explains the key drivers of inflation differentials between Canada and the United States, while Ian vents his frustration over the lack of response in the bond market.  The new repo facilities are discussed within the context of how the sequencing of QE impacts the timing of U.S. rate hikes, and both Ian and Royce opine on what that means for the Bank of Canada. false full 40 0b22271d-c9ac-4b7f-849d-70345898fcd7 Mon, 12 Jul 2021 14:06:24 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Royce Mendes) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/reflation-nation-XCiCTB7A Reflation nation Ian Pollick, Royce Mendes 00:26:46 Royce and Ian take the pulse of the reflation trade. Ian discusses the reasons that some investors are calling the trade dead. Royce talks about why the base case economic outlook remains bright for North America, despite some downside risks that are on the rise. They close the podcast by discussing the expected path for the Bank of Canada’s balance sheet. Royce and Ian take the pulse of the reflation trade. Ian discusses the reasons that some investors are calling the trade dead. Royce talks about why the base case economic outlook remains bright for North America, despite some downside risks that are on the rise. They close the podcast by discussing the expected path for the Bank of Canada’s balance sheet. false full 39 73da63e4-aa32-43f5-a1e2-8b973d7a3fba Fri, 25 Jun 2021 15:26:24 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/reality-check-u7_24VMk Reality check! Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick 00:22:30 Royce and Ian dissect the recent US Federal Reserve meeting, calling it a reality check for the central bank. Royce talks about why the hawkish move makes Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem’s life a lot easier. Ian then analyses the market reaction and how trading reflation has changed post-meeting. Royce and Ian debate transitory versus persistent inflationary pressures and talk about how that will affect fixed income pricing. Ian also convinces Royce to roll over their friendly wager on economic data. Royce and Ian dissect the recent US Federal Reserve meeting, calling it a reality check for the central bank. Royce talks about why the hawkish move makes Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem’s life a lot easier. Ian then analyses the market reaction and how trading reflation has changed post-meeting. Royce and Ian debate transitory versus persistent inflationary pressures and talk about how that will affect fixed income pricing. Ian also convinces Royce to roll over their friendly wager on economic data. false full 38 ee0bd64c-d0d8-46d4-bc83-97b6a0bff6c3 Fri, 11 Jun 2021 16:39:11 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/tiff-jays-excellent-adventure-5qgPFFsa Tiff & Jay’s excellent adventure Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick 00:26:25 Ian and Royce take stock of the divergence between strong inflationary signals and a bond market that just won’t stop rallying. And keeping with the theme of divergence, Royce discusses why the compositional differences of the Fed and Bank of Canada’s policy framework is contributing to perceived BoC hawkishness, noting too that AIT is creating too much uncertainty. The co-hosts also dissect the contents of the BoC meeting this week, and the Economic Update speech from Deputy Governor Tim Lane. As well, Royce and Ian decide to roll over their Canadian CPI bet. Ian and Royce take stock of the divergence between strong inflationary signals and a bond market that just won’t stop rallying. And keeping with the theme of divergence, Royce discusses why the compositional differences of the Fed and Bank of Canada’s policy framework is contributing to perceived BoC hawkishness, noting too that AIT is creating too much uncertainty. The co-hosts also dissect the contents of the BoC meeting this week, and the Economic Update speech from Deputy Governor Tim Lane. As well, Royce and Ian decide to roll over their Canadian CPI bet. false full 37 91431e24-430d-41fe-816e-63c877e493a7 Tue, 18 May 2021 16:14:47 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Royce Mendes) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/crocodiles-are-faster-than-you-think-rate-hikes-might-be-too-QhgBQQAk Crocodiles are faster than you think - rate hikes might be too Ian Pollick, Royce Mendes 00:23:52 Royce and Ian are back together after a few weeks off to dissect all of the conflicting economic data releases in the US. Royce talks about how some of the growing pains south of the border might be a precursor to future developments in Canada. Ian gives a rundown of how investors are digesting all of this new information, and flags some potential catalysts for market volatility in the coming months. The episode closes with Royce discussing new research on the neutral rate in Canada, which suggests that the economy might need rates to eventually rise higher than the Bank of Canada thinks and at a faster pace than the market is now pricing in. Royce and Ian are back together after a few weeks off to dissect all of the conflicting economic data releases in the US. Royce talks about how some of the growing pains south of the border might be a precursor to future developments in Canada. Ian gives a rundown of how investors are digesting all of this new information, and flags some potential catalysts for market volatility in the coming months. The episode closes with Royce discussing new research on the neutral rate in Canada, which suggests that the economy might need rates to eventually rise higher than the Bank of Canada thinks and at a faster pace than the market is now pricing in. false full 36 02715cb2-5a2f-4207-878c-46cb2b966361 Fri, 23 Apr 2021 14:09:13 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Royce Mendes) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/keeping-score-HpF3PH_d Keeping score Ian Pollick, Royce Mendes 00:27:00 Ian and Royce discuss what calls they got right and what surprised them in this week’s Federal Budget and Bank of Canada announcement. They give their views on which central bank’s outlook is more likely to be realized between the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve. Ian discusses how the expected supply in the Government of Canada bond market this year will interact with the central bank’s tapering plans. Royce talks about why market pricing for the terminal rate in Canada might not actually be that aggressive. Ian and Royce discuss what calls they got right and what surprised them in this week’s Federal Budget and Bank of Canada announcement. They give their views on which central bank’s outlook is more likely to be realized between the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve. Ian discusses how the expected supply in the Government of Canada bond market this year will interact with the central bank’s tapering plans. Royce talks about why market pricing for the terminal rate in Canada might not actually be that aggressive. false full 35 a8a84db1-fe56-4505-9cdb-7c250e55caa6 Wed, 14 Apr 2021 14:08:20 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/the-next-seven-days-kLNkjWWS The next seven days Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick 00:17:07 Royce and Ian discuss whether something is ‘off’ in the recent jobs data, questioning whether the seasonal adjustment process has broken-down. Royce provides his view on what to expect in Budget ’21 next week, while Ian looks ahead to the BoC rate-decision and the likelihood that a taper is announced. Royce and Ian discuss whether something is ‘off’ in the recent jobs data, questioning whether the seasonal adjustment process has broken-down. Royce provides his view on what to expect in Budget ’21 next week, while Ian looks ahead to the BoC rate-decision and the likelihood that a taper is announced. false full 34 c249788e-1a95-41c5-ad32-845637d56c4f Fri, 19 Mar 2021 14:40:48 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Royce Mendes) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/just-in-time-reaction-function-gwdkRPFO Just-in-time reaction function Ian Pollick, Royce Mendes 00:27:26 Royce and Ian discuss the latest Fed announcement and how some of the accompanying projections seemed inconsistent with others. They talk about why the new forecasts could be subject to more change than usual, and how that fits in with the Fed’s new reaction function. They conclude that this leaves more room for markets to ‘fight the Fed’ dot-plot than in the previous cycle. The conversation then moves on to an analysis of the relative timing and magnitude of Bank of Canada and Fed rate hikes priced into markets. Royce asks Ian whether he expects any hints about BoC tapering from Deputy Governor Gravelle in next week’s speech. Ian closes the show with a final question about Canada’s housing market, seemingly unrelated to the rest of the episode. Royce and Ian discuss the latest Fed announcement and how some of the accompanying projections seemed inconsistent with others. They talk about why the new forecasts could be subject to more change than usual, and how that fits in with the Fed’s new reaction function. They conclude that this leaves more room for markets to ‘fight the Fed’ dot-plot than in the previous cycle. The conversation then moves on to an analysis of the relative timing and magnitude of Bank of Canada and Fed rate hikes priced into markets. Royce asks Ian whether he expects any hints about BoC tapering from Deputy Governor Gravelle in next week’s speech. Ian closes the show with a final question about Canada’s housing market, seemingly unrelated to the rest of the episode. false full 33 4857de23-9acc-452f-b1c2-1387f88c7fab Fri, 5 Mar 2021 13:55:41 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/angrybonds-_InDXbdm #AngryBonds Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick 00:25:07 Ian and Royce discuss the recent bond market selloff from their own perspectives, and conclude that a ‘high pressure’ economic outcome isn’t the driving force. Royce surprises us with his love of farms, while Ian talks about his expectations for the BoC meeting next week and when we can expect a taper. Ian and Royce discuss the recent bond market selloff from their own perspectives, and conclude that a ‘high pressure’ economic outcome isn’t the driving force. Royce surprises us with his love of farms, while Ian talks about his expectations for the BoC meeting next week and when we can expect a taper. false full 32 39ed2754-f010-4ce2-ae10-4d2d96b7aac3 Fri, 19 Feb 2021 13:59:21 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/31-flavours-kkR_091g 31 flavours Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick 00:20:58 Ian and Royce discuss the recent bond market selloff and the ongoing debate regarding the US fiscal package. With volatility increasing in both fixed income and equity markets, the arguments have moved from the ivory towers to the real world. They also touch on the implications of all this for the expected QE taper by the Bank of Canada. Ian and Royce discuss the recent bond market selloff and the ongoing debate regarding the US fiscal package. With volatility increasing in both fixed income and equity markets, the arguments have moved from the ivory towers to the real world. They also touch on the implications of all this for the expected QE taper by the Bank of Canada. false full 31 a6ef0741-2800-4673-871a-51b2ee571152 Fri, 29 Jan 2021 16:31:15 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/a-special-relationship-QvURej3k A special relationship Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick 00:26:07 Royce and Ian discuss the latest developments in the US regarding the Federal Reserve. Royce talks about how a range of employment indicators will be in focus as central bankers figure out what constitutes maximum employment, and how that will affect the timing of rate increases. Ian discusses how tapering US QE could affect Canadian rates. Ian and Royce then chat about how all of this affects the Canadian dollar. Royce and Ian discuss the latest developments in the US regarding the Federal Reserve. Royce talks about how a range of employment indicators will be in focus as central bankers figure out what constitutes maximum employment, and how that will affect the timing of rate increases. Ian discusses how tapering US QE could affect Canadian rates. Ian and Royce then chat about how all of this affects the Canadian dollar. false full 30 65986e97-528c-46d0-afb0-8ef73b06c41d Fri, 22 Jan 2021 18:05:08 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Royce Mendes) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/listening-between-the-lines-I6_rM26H Listening between the lines Ian Pollick, Royce Mendes 00:31:37 Royce and Ian interpret the Governor of the Bank of Canada’s remarks on a host of vital issues, including a micro-cut, the effective lower bound for rates, the future of quantitative easing and the central bank’s inflation mandate. Royce also discusses the upgrades to the economic outlook in the latest Monetary Policy Report, and Ian breaks down some of the divergences seen in short-term Canadian rates. Royce and Ian interpret the Governor of the Bank of Canada’s remarks on a host of vital issues, including a micro-cut, the effective lower bound for rates, the future of quantitative easing and the central bank’s inflation mandate. Royce also discusses the upgrades to the economic outlook in the latest Monetary Policy Report, and Ian breaks down some of the divergences seen in short-term Canadian rates. false full 29 c04e9925-e989-4bcd-a650-32be8d095c39 Wed, 13 Jan 2021 17:05:01 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/big-thoughts-on-a-micro-cut-G9BjtQ5e Big thoughts on a micro cut Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick 00:29:34 Ian and Royce are back in the studio, talking about the potential merits of a Bank of Canada microcut. Ian discusses the interesting way in which yields have been rising, while Royce does a deep-dive on the forecasts we can expect to see coming out of the MPR next week. Ian and Royce are back in the studio, talking about the potential merits of a Bank of Canada microcut. Ian discusses the interesting way in which yields have been rising, while Royce does a deep-dive on the forecasts we can expect to see coming out of the MPR next week. false full 28 f2a0c4ab-a2ba-497f-be52-7110a9a1be83 Mon, 14 Dec 2020 19:17:28 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/goodbye-2020-hello-new-year-of-monetary-policy-choices-jestIhbO Goodbye 2020, hello new year of monetary policy choices Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick 00:27:12 Ian and Royce discuss new information regarding the Bank of Canada’s toolbox. They analyze the most likely ways the central bank can adjust its policies in the event that upside or downside risks materialize in light of the latest commentary coming from officials. The hosts also look at ways monetary policymakers can alter the mix of stimulus as they inevitably bump up against the limits of bond buying even in base-case scenarios for 2021. Ian and Royce end the show by bidding farewell to 2020 in a unique way. Ian and Royce discuss new information regarding the Bank of Canada’s toolbox. They analyze the most likely ways the central bank can adjust its policies in the event that upside or downside risks materialize in light of the latest commentary coming from officials. The hosts also look at ways monetary policymakers can alter the mix of stimulus as they inevitably bump up against the limits of bond buying even in base-case scenarios for 2021. Ian and Royce end the show by bidding farewell to 2020 in a unique way. false full 27 93c29dd7-06d1-4817-a0c4-ca65760ead52 Wed, 2 Dec 2020 18:23:22 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Lisa Raitt, Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/aka-the-budget-lite-Y0WfRE06 AKA the budget-lite Lisa Raitt, Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick 00:28:46 Lisa Raitt joins Royce to give a former-insider’s view on what turned out to be a heftier-than-expected Fall Economic Statement from the Federal government. Ian and Royce then discuss the debt management strategy included in the document and its interplay with the Bank of Canada’s quantitative easing program. Ian sneaks in some questions at the end of the show about how worrisome the current strength in the Canadian dollar will be for the eventual economic recovery. Lisa Raitt joins Royce to give a former-insider’s view on what turned out to be a heftier-than-expected Fall Economic Statement from the Federal government. Ian and Royce then discuss the debt management strategy included in the document and its interplay with the Bank of Canada’s quantitative easing program. Ian sneaks in some questions at the end of the show about how worrisome the current strength in the Canadian dollar will be for the eventual economic recovery. false full 26 5f15ec94-12ff-4f3f-8a5a-ab9a97688989 Wed, 25 Nov 2020 22:16:40 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/getting-more-clarity-CFfCo2FW Getting more clarity Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick 00:25:33 Ian & Royce discuss the implication of recent vaccine developments on the bond market and what it means for our macro forecast. As well, Royce discusses what the appointment of Yellen to Treasury Secretary means for the FOMC. Ian speaks about the reflation theme and what the bond market expects from the upcoming Budget update on November 30th Ian & Royce discuss the implication of recent vaccine developments on the bond market and what it means for our macro forecast. As well, Royce discusses what the appointment of Yellen to Treasury Secretary means for the FOMC. Ian speaks about the reflation theme and what the bond market expects from the upcoming Budget update on November 30th false full 25 b3b127ba-2267-40ed-a366-8e759792927e Tue, 27 Oct 2020 14:09:39 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/a-leaky-situation-Z4jk4WBb A leaky situation Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick 00:28:38 Royce and Ian have a wide-ranging discussion on the upcoming Bank of Canada decision. Royce outlines the updates the Bank of Canada will need to make to its forecasts, while Ian discusses the likelihood of calibrating the quantitative easing program. The conversation also touches on the limitations of the Bank of Canada’s purchases on the level of domestic bond yields, and how fiscal support might be leaking out of the Canadian economy. Royce and Ian have a wide-ranging discussion on the upcoming Bank of Canada decision. Royce outlines the updates the Bank of Canada will need to make to its forecasts, while Ian discusses the likelihood of calibrating the quantitative easing program. The conversation also touches on the limitations of the Bank of Canada’s purchases on the level of domestic bond yields, and how fiscal support might be leaking out of the Canadian economy. false full 24 966fa25b-9a5f-4518-a42b-c4c2e708656b Fri, 16 Oct 2020 15:41:31 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Royce Mendes) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/the-elephant-of-surprise-SceUBHXn The elephant of surprise Ian Pollick, Royce Mendes 00:35:19 Ian and Royce discuss their expectations for the upcoming Bank of Canada interest-rate decision, focusing on what the forecasts will look like and whether or not any adjustments to QE will be announced. Royce discusses the outlook for CPI, while Ian highlights some opportunities in real-return bonds. Ian and Royce discuss their expectations for the upcoming Bank of Canada interest-rate decision, focusing on what the forecasts will look like and whether or not any adjustments to QE will be announced. Royce discusses the outlook for CPI, while Ian highlights some opportunities in real-return bonds. false full 23 2bead15f-0bc5-40ac-b9e6-138a2fcd19e4 Thu, 1 Oct 2020 12:09:31 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Jeremy Stretch) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/the-implications-of-brexits-last-mile-nlb_b_T3 The implications of Brexit’s ‘last mile’ Ian Pollick, Jeremy Stretch 00:28:34 Ian is joined by his colleague Jeremy Stretch this week, our Head of G10 FX Strategy. Jeremy discusses all aspects of Brexit, from the political climate to the yield curve to prospects for the GBP. Ian identifies some potential curve divergence between the UK and Canada, and ruminates on the merits of a relative CAD steepener versus GBP flattener. Ian is joined by his colleague Jeremy Stretch this week, our Head of G10 FX Strategy. Jeremy discusses all aspects of Brexit, from the political climate to the yield curve to prospects for the GBP. Ian identifies some potential curve divergence between the UK and Canada, and ruminates on the merits of a relative CAD steepener versus GBP flattener. false full 22 eb1b9961-a187-4732-9e63-d6e77a2b5427 Fri, 25 Sep 2020 15:32:35 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/did-the-throne-postpone-steepening-nSDUrKuM Did the throne postpone steepening? Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick 00:25:32 Ian & Royce are back in the studio this week, discussing their interpretation of the Throne Speech and what it means for macro and rates. Royce talks about the sustainability of fiscal support, while Ian ruminates on what needs to happen for issuance risks to increase going forward. Ian & Royce are back in the studio this week, discussing their interpretation of the Throne Speech and what it means for macro and rates. Royce talks about the sustainability of fiscal support, while Ian ruminates on what needs to happen for issuance risks to increase going forward. false full 21 3985977b-b208-4f48-b736-a57cc143445b Mon, 14 Sep 2020 19:34:03 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Royce Mendes) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/the-bands-back-together-dAiA_QAj The band’s back together Ian Pollick, Royce Mendes 00:31:28 Royce and Ian are reunited in the studio after a month apart. They provide their thoughts on the most recent Bank of Canada interest rate announcement, in particular why the Bank didn’t mention the Canadian dollar and what the inclusion of the word “calibrate” means for the future of QE. Royce outlines his view on why the Bank’s forward guidance is being misunderstood in the market, while Ian makes the point that rising issuance may have the same impact as a tapering of QE. Royce and Ian are reunited in the studio after a month apart. They provide their thoughts on the most recent Bank of Canada interest rate announcement, in particular why the Bank didn’t mention the Canadian dollar and what the inclusion of the word “calibrate” means for the future of QE. Royce outlines his view on why the Bank’s forward guidance is being misunderstood in the market, while Ian makes the point that rising issuance may have the same impact as a tapering of QE. false full 20 ead37029-51d9-4056-9625-8ffc394666e7 Mon, 31 Aug 2020 12:37:04 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Vivek Beri, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/spaghetti-goal-posts-9cKZlWN3 Spaghetti goal posts Vivek Beri, Ian Pollick 00:31:52 Ian is joined by Vivek Beri (Executive Director, Structured Rates Trading) as guest-host this week, discussing the Fed’s announcement at Jackson Hole and what it means for the curve. They also discuss recent developments in the CAD vol market, what the BoC inflation renewal means for CAD rates and, their favorite trades for the weeks ahead. Ian is joined by Vivek Beri (Executive Director, Structured Rates Trading) as guest-host this week, discussing the Fed’s announcement at Jackson Hole and what it means for the curve. They also discuss recent developments in the CAD vol market, what the BoC inflation renewal means for CAD rates and, their favorite trades for the weeks ahead. false full 19 55ade6a4-bc86-41a1-a735-cb2b8e793dd1 Fri, 14 Aug 2020 15:02:56 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Craig Bell) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/subterranean-steepening-blues-KW6fRr_0 Subterranean steepening blues Ian Pollick, Craig Bell 00:33:40 Ian Pollick and Craig Bell discuss why Canadian swap spreads have historically been so elevated and how QE may or may not change that going forward. Additionally, they discuss some of the major themes in CAD rates percolating beneath the surface, and how most of those themes point to a steeper yield-curve. Ian Pollick and Craig Bell discuss why Canadian swap spreads have historically been so elevated and how QE may or may not change that going forward. Additionally, they discuss some of the major themes in CAD rates percolating beneath the surface, and how most of those themes point to a steeper yield-curve. false full 18 60073a0d-3e83-41cb-ac0d-ec97763251e3 Fri, 31 Jul 2020 14:27:00 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Royce Mendes, Barbara Zvan) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/sustaining-momentum-5dRTdbSR Sustaining momentum Royce Mendes, Barbara Zvan 00:21:22 Royce Mendes interviews Barbara Zvan, who was a member of the Expert Panel on Sustainable Finance and has recently been appointed President and CEO of the newly established University Pension Plan, a jointly sponsored pension plan for Ontario’s university sector. Royce then breaks down the reasons Canada’s labour market might show early signs outperforming that of the US in next week’s employment readings, and discusses why it’s probably a prelude to each country’s labour market performances in the months to come. Royce Mendes interviews Barbara Zvan, who was a member of the Expert Panel on Sustainable Finance and has recently been appointed President and CEO of the newly established University Pension Plan, a jointly sponsored pension plan for Ontario’s university sector. Royce then breaks down the reasons Canada’s labour market might show early signs outperforming that of the US in next week’s employment readings, and discusses why it’s probably a prelude to each country’s labour market performances in the months to come. false full 17 f5838992-e82b-4a00-8c92-817eb27116cb Thu, 23 Jul 2020 19:54:01 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Royce Mendes) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/promises-promises-JlvbNSML Promises, promises Royce Mendes 00:11:46 Royce Mendes takes a second look at the Bank of Canada’s commitment to keep rates pinned down and finds an interesting twist that could prove significant for investors as the recovery gains steam. He also previews next week’s Federal Reserve meeting and the GDP data set to be released in both the US and Canada. Royce Mendes takes a second look at the Bank of Canada’s commitment to keep rates pinned down and finds an interesting twist that could prove significant for investors as the recovery gains steam. He also previews next week’s Federal Reserve meeting and the GDP data set to be released in both the US and Canada. false full 16 8751a3ed-2147-4523-bbe0-9a844816d628 Fri, 17 Jul 2020 14:17:36 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/adaptation-9pqSUElw Adaptation Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick 00:25:41 Ian Pollick and Royce Mendes discuss the most recent Bank of Canada interest rate announcement, implications from the Monetary Policy Report (MPR) on the bond market, and delve into their view on the evolution of Canadian QE. Ian Pollick and Royce Mendes discuss the most recent Bank of Canada interest rate announcement, implications from the Monetary Policy Report (MPR) on the bond market, and delve into their view on the evolution of Canadian QE. false full 15 c087345a-2877-44fe-91f7-0fc9c7cde19a Thu, 9 Jul 2020 21:28:04 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Royce Mendes, Lisa Raitt) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/after-you-get-past-the-wow-OPzb6BBk After you get past the "wow!" Royce Mendes, Lisa Raitt 00:26:19 Royce breaks down what’s ahead now that there’s a price-tag for the federal government’s pandemic response. He also welcomes the Hon. Lisa Raitt to the program to share her expert analysis of the government’s Economic and Fiscal Snapshot. Royce breaks down what’s ahead now that there’s a price-tag for the federal government’s pandemic response. He also welcomes the Hon. Lisa Raitt to the program to share her expert analysis of the government’s Economic and Fiscal Snapshot. false full 14 f5684872-37bd-46c1-a988-213088624e8f Thu, 25 Jun 2020 00:04:23 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Ian Pollick, Royce Mendes) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/i-thought-it-was-supposed-to-be-a-quiet-week-uDbYfQ6_ I thought it was supposed to be a quiet week? Ian Pollick, Royce Mendes 00:22:18 Ian Pollick and Royce Mendes discuss the surprising downgrade of Canada’s AAA rating by Fitch, recent statements by Minister Morneau and Governor Macklem which could have implications for fixed-income markets, and finally the outlook for next week’s Canadian GDP print. Ian Pollick and Royce Mendes discuss the surprising downgrade of Canada’s AAA rating by Fitch, recent statements by Minister Morneau and Governor Macklem which could have implications for fixed-income markets, and finally the outlook for next week’s Canadian GDP print. false full 13 d878bfe3-bfe3-464b-9e63-35ef68ce7199 Thu, 18 Jun 2020 22:06:24 +0000 mailbox.multimedia@cibc.ca (Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick) https://curveyourenthusiasm.simplecast.com/episodes/were-baaaack-SWeY2zj7 We're baaaack Royce Mendes, Ian Pollick 00:31:04 Ian Pollick and Royce Mendes discuss the surprising CPI report for May, what they learned from Governor Macklem’s first Parliamentary testimony as Head of the Bank of Canada, and walk us through the recently released economic and interest rate forecasts. Ian Pollick and Royce Mendes discuss the surprising CPI report for May, what they learned from Governor Macklem’s first Parliamentary testimony as Head of the Bank of Canada, and walk us through the recently released economic and interest rate forecasts. false full 12